Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[ABSR 5315]

35 minutes ago, Horn80 said:

Jesus wept.

That's fine.  Just so long as he and his family don't gather in the parks this weekend.

[Treefidy 1468]

2 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I dried a pair of her jeans once early in our marriage. I haven't been trusted to do anything but my own laundry in 17 years. 

That's been one of the treefidy paternal hand me downs since the Middle Ages,, like hunting, field dressing, stripping and cleaning firearms, reloading, auto mechanics, use of tools, and always start a relationship off by putting some new dark blue and red clothes in with the whites.  Even just 1 new red shop towel does the trick.  

just make sure it's her whites and to the end of your days together you will never touch laundry again.  Small price to pay to replace that batch of whites, and make sure to pass it along to the next generation.  

[Iceman 2716]

This shit is fascinating within the realm of "What would you do as a leader, when it comes to 'nut-cutting time?'

 

Thomas Modly: Navy Secretary resigns after calling fired captain behind coronavirus letter 'stupid' and 'naive'

[OU Sucks 8866]

Saw a guy wearing a big trash bag that went down to his knees at the grocery store today, and I'm pretty sure it wasn't for comedic purposes.  I guess wearing garbage bags is the new normal.

Edited April 7, 2020 by OU Sucks

[Doc Reeves 6434]

5 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Does that include the annual smug marathon? 

Please, the French can all do that from home with ease

[SHOOTER12 8810]

1 hour ago, JesusSweatDuck said:

I hear she's a cow

That's udderly ridiculous.

[Rimbo 25974]

9 hours ago, Post Oak said:

Imagine have leaders being concerned with the lives of their citizens instead of turning a profit.

 

The economy and deaths are not mutually exclusive. Past week's Economist had an article on the topic, taking about how the suicide rate and other maladies start to ratchet up the death toll when the economy stanks.

tl;dr, our lives are worth about ~$60,000 each

6 hours ago, woohorn said:

I am guessing that University isn't anywhere near Wall Street...
 

That seems optimistic.

6 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I'm discussing information about the subject that has us all here on this thread. It's easy to put someone on ignore. You can do that and stop wailing about every post I make.

Where's the fun in that, though?

6 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

that's surprising to hear.  whole foods can barely keep butter stocked.  and the cheese selection has been sparser than normal. 

 

also never knew milk could be this divisive. 

My experience here in California (where we locked down earlier) -- supplies are fine. After an initial run, prices will skyrocket. Then, as demand settles down, stocks will come back up. Had no issues getting bleach and eggs this past weekend.

5 hours ago, dcar00 said:

winning!

I think CDC predicted a few days ago the peak would be 2100 or so. 

What does our AD have to do with anything?

 

 

 

 

😉

5 hours ago, GreenspointTexas said:

https://nypost.com/2020/04/07/51-recovered-coronavirus-patients-test-positive-again-in-south-korea/?utm_source=facebook_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site+buttons&utm_campaign=site+buttons&fbclid=IwAR0YhTviyBa22XcNJPKGjeBMOqJ0ixGxHQTqSRMnpOOltia0_ZRMNDmHzr4
 

siap but hopefully just an error somewhere in testing?

Error in sourcing. Seriously, since when does anything the Post prints have any factual value?

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

You left out:

7) squirrel can be delicious if properly prepared

8 - milk is either awesome, or is the devil

9) something something, South Austin's mom.

Let's not bring up squirrels at this point in time

3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I couldn't count the times you've lied on this thread since I jumped on.  You routinely mischaracterize not only people's motivations but their actual posts in lame attempts to score points with your little cadre of sockophants.

You lie so often I suspect you often don't even realize you're doing it.  

You say that like it's a bad thing.

[Anastasis 23475]

Travis county added 83, went from 502 to 585.  Fuck.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

11 minutes ago, OU Sucks said:

Saw a guy wearing a big trash bag that went down to his knees at the grocery store today, and I'm pretty sure it wasn't for comedic purposes.  I guess wearing garbage bags is the new normal.

 

The plan is working peeeeeeeerfectlyyyyyyyyyyy..

Edited April 7, 2020 by Onboard 2.0

[bschoolprof 6263]

51 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

So, regarding the death tolls, it seems like weekends and Mondays don't provide the full picture, which is why we see the Tuesday numbers just. Basically, some groups don't report their counts before a state reports a number on Monday. 

For instance, Massachusetts posted a dramatically higher number today and than any other day, and their Monday number was low. Here's their note on it with today's update:

"Please note that today’s reported deaths reflect deaths occurring over the weekend and the past 24 hours. DPH receives reports of deaths from more than one source that are then matched to laboratory confirmed cases and reported out as quickly as possible. See table below for details."

In the 96 deaths, one female in her 40's with an underlying medical condition, three males and a female in their 50's with no known medical conditions. Everyone else was over 60, which is what every day pretty much looks like for them.

The daily data seems very noisy and filled with measurement error, both at the state reporting level, and at the web scraping level (like worldometers). For the former, there seem to be time/date cutoff errors as well as uncertainty and across-state heterogeneity in how one classifies something as a COVID death.  For the latter, I suspect there is some double counting because multiple sources are being used.  As a result, you will see sometimes significant differences in daily fluctuations across, say, worldometers and the COVID tracking project.  

I'm not complaining because these folks have a Herculean task. I just don't read that much into daily fluctuations (up or down) as I used to.  

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4976]

We've been having good luck ordering Walmart pickup. Around 7 or 8 in the morning there are usually plenty of slots available for the next day. We are still pretty low on the case count here, so that may change as things start ramping up.

[Treefidy 1468]

1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Load this summer will be down if the C&I doesn't come back to near capacity/forecast, and it almost surely doesn't matter how heavily the resi-side uses. 

March, April, and potentially May of 2020 will be the highest residential loads, for those months, in ERCOT history. It still won't make a dent with so much C&I knocked out. It would be a great time to be a residential-oriented REP in Texas because power costs are so low and usage is so high. It's a dream scenario but for the moratorium on disconnects, which will lead to higher bad debt than forecasted for most of the electricity businesses. So, you really want to be a resi-based REP with a great average utility score within your base right now. 

For customers, everyone should prepare for significantly higher than expected electricity bills for the next 3 months of usage. March and April usage, along with November, are the lowest residential power usage periods in ERCOT, so most people are subconsciously going to be expecting a certain bill range and will be surprised when it's higher. This will lead to oddly unseasonal switching for lower prices. January, June-Sept see 75% of the switches in Texas for various established REPs, so this will be another unintended consequence that I'm betting will be studied due to this virus' impact on society.  

So watch your cornhole on your power bill and don't be afraid to switch if you're current with what you owe. There will probably amnesty granted on early termination fees if the PUC hears enough about it in this bizarre time. Also, with suppressed C&I usage, pricing on the grid could be shockingly low for the summer period if that's the case. Could actually be a boon for customers who switch during a seasonally regular period when their contract comes up. I'm guessing strips of summer power have come off of ridiculous forward-pricing in dramatic ways because of this. If they haven't, the traders are just holding off until someone capitulates and undercuts the market in order to shed position.

 

Unless of course you live under the austin fucking energy monopoly. 

[Chewbacca 7780]

2 hours ago, Poe It Up said:

I’ve dried her jeans, broken a plate, and refused to buy sugarless snacks at the store. I’m ridding myself of chores one “accident” at a time. 

I broke an ornament on accident several years ago and was relieved of my Christmas tree decorating duties.  A light clicked on that day, gentlemen.

[dcar00 14249]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/gordonchang/2013/12/08/chinas-newest-city-we-call-it-detroit/#4c7b59f4246f

[closetojumping 62746]

12 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

The daily data seems very noisy and filled with measurement error, both at the state reporting level, and at the web scraping level (like worldometers). For the former, there seem to be time/date cutoff errors as well as uncertainty and across-state heterogeneity in how one classifies something as a COVID death.  For the latter, I suspect there is some double counting because multiple sources are being used.  As a result, you will see sometimes significant differences in daily fluctuations across, say, worldometers and the COVID tracking project.  

I'm not complaining because these folks have a Herculean task. I just don't read that much into daily fluctuations (up or down) as I used to.  

For sure. I’ve been posting about it for a few weeks but who can keep up with this thread? My thoughts are in line with yours. I do think watching them each day is helpful in understanding the ebb and flow better. 

I also agree that the work they’re all doing to actually provide this information across cities, states, honest countries and the scrapers is really helpful and not easy. 

[Spankytoes 1742]

27 minutes ago, OU Sucks said:

Saw a guy wearing a big trash bag that went down to his knees at the grocery store today, and I'm pretty sure it wasn't for comedic purposes.  I guess wearing garbage bags is the new normal.

Folks have been wearing ou gear for years

[Pato del Muerto 52521]

Does anyone do a rolling 3 day avg to smooth out the data?  

[dcar00 14249]

4 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

For sure. I’ve been posting about it for a few weeks but who can keep up with this thread? My thoughts are in line with yours. I do think watching them each day is helpful in understanding the ebb and flow better. 

I also agree that the work they’re all doing to actually provide this information across cities, states, honest countries and the scrapers is really helpful and not easy. 

all we can really count on is Aussie's/New Zealand, western european countries(Italy scrubbing the old folks homes was a head scratcher but maybe not intentional)a few Eastern Euros , probably SKorea, even Japan looks like they were gaming it a bit for the olympics.

In regards to US I think it would be fairly simple to get head of every state to have a person at each hospital report daily to a state level coordinator and them to the feds.  maybe that is the CDC number but not sure.  how many hospitals in Texas these days? maybe you could limit and not include county hospitals in the hinterlands.

 

[EuroHorn 3265]

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Does anyone do a rolling 3 day avg to smooth out the data?  

China does a 3 day average on the first three days. 

[Iceman 2716]

3 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

China does a 3 day average on the first three days. 

do assassinations and disappearances count separately, or are they included? 

[EuroHorn 3265]

You could implant one of these in every American. Your temp gets above normal it pops.  Then just count the people with the ones that popped 

 

[Anastasis 23475]

38 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Travis county added 83, went from 502 to 585.  Fuck.

Looks like they revised the number down to 554. 

[EuroHorn 3265]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Looks like they revised the number down to 554. 

[jimmyjazz 45974]

39 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

The daily data seems very noisy and filled with measurement error, both at the state reporting level, and at the web scraping level (like worldometers). For the former, there seem to be time/date cutoff errors as well as uncertainty and across-state heterogeneity in how one classifies something as a COVID death.  For the latter, I suspect there is some double counting because multiple sources are being used.  As a result, you will see sometimes significant differences in daily fluctuations across, say, worldometers and the COVID tracking project.  

I'm not complaining because these folks have a Herculean task. I just don't read that much into daily fluctuations (up or down) as I used to.  

It seems to me that the data tend to settle down about 3-4 days out. 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

1 hour ago, OU Sucks said:

Saw a guy wearing a big trash bag that went down to his knees at the grocery store today, and I'm pretty sure it wasn't for comedic purposes.  I guess wearing garbage bags is the new normal.

[Bevo 13579]

1 minute ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

I guess we don't have to worry about her biting anyone.

[HenryJames 66107]

3 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

[EuroHorn 3265]

 

[Francisco 2.0 32395]

 

 

[Incredulity 11675]

22 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I guess we don't have to worry about her biting anyone.

Or licking her own asshole.

[SydneyCarton 48110]

I’ll go ahead and sub this for the the bat signal, but Junior Miller is on the confirmed cases thread blaming his wife for infecting him and opining about a murder suicide for her not practicing social distance. Everyone should go take a peek. 

[Hate 20112]

He should be banned for that, but also because he sucks.

[SydneyCarton 48110]

2 minutes ago, Hate said:

He should be banned for that, but also because he sucks.

 

[Buzzrock 14922]

The two people in our extended family who we were totally sure had it, fit all the symptoms, had worrying comorbidities, etc both ended up testing negative (twice). At this point it’s still pretty damn rare (unless you live in a hot spot or are in healthcare).

[bolverk 29684]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Does anyone do a rolling 3 day avg to smooth out the data?  

I made a crude attempt using Worldometer numbers to come up with a rolling five-day projection for deaths based on the new case count for the US and it tracks pretty well within a ballpark range.

Left column is the number of recorded new cases each day.

Middle column is the number of recorded deaths each day.

Right column the predicted number of deaths for that day, using a cfr of 5.2126% which is what it was from March 6 through April 2. Not perfect, but it parallels pretty well.

Given the numbers they've put out so far, we should expect a ballpark figure of around 7,800 new deaths by Sunday evening, based on the new case count from April 3 to today.

Y'all are more than welcome to copy/pasta the below into your own spreadsheet to tweek it and come up with something better.

	Cases/Day	Deaths/Day	Deaths 5-day lag
3/6	98
3/7	116
3/8	106
3/9	163
3/10	290
3/11	307	8	5
3/12	329	3	6
3/13	553	7	6
3/14	587	9	8
3/15	843	12	15
3/16	983	18	16
3/17	1,748	23	17
3/18	2,853	40	29
3/19	4,582	56	31
3/20	5,588	49	44
3/21	4,825	46	51
3/22	9,400	113	91
3/23	10,189	141	149
3/24	11,075	225	239
3/25	13,355	247	291
3/26	17,244	268	252
3/27	18,691	400	490
3/28	19,452	525	531
3/29	19,913	363	577
3/30	20,297	558	696
3/31	24,742	912	899
4/1	26,473	1,049	974
4/2	29,874	974	1,014
4/3	32,284	1,045	1,038
4/4	34,196	1,330	1,058
4/5	25,316	1,165	1,290
4/6	30,331	1,255	1,380
4/7	28,273	1,913	1,557
4/8			1,683
4/9			1,783
4/10			1,320
4/11			1,581
4/12			1,474

Edited April 7, 2020 by bolverk

[Trey3216 15347]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Does anyone do a rolling 3 day avg to smooth out the data?  

There’s finally enough places with enough data to start doing them.  

[Trey3216 15347]

1 hour ago, EuroHorn said:

You could implant one of these in every American. Your temp gets above normal it pops.  Then just count the people with the ones that popped 

 

Mark of the Devil.  Would not implant. 

[Trey3216 15347]

46 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I guess we don't have to worry about her biting anyone.

Are her nails trimmed?  For Zombie purposes....

[Horn80 6129]

 

2 hours ago, ABSR said:

That's fine.  Just so long as he and his family don't gather in the parks this weekend.

Could be a problem.  I heard he hangs out with 12 guys and a hot prostitute.

Edited April 8, 2020 by Horn80

[Fondren & Main 6724]

35 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I’ll go ahead and sub this for the the bat signal, but Junior Miller is on the confirmed cases thread blaming his wife for infecting him and opining about a murder suicide for her not practicing social distance. Everyone should go take a peek. 

That guy is a real fucking idiot.  Thanks for the heads up.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

33 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I’ll go ahead and sub this for the the bat signal, but Junior Miller is on the confirmed cases thread blaming his wife for infecting him and opining about a murder suicide for her not practicing social distance. Everyone should go take a peek. 

He's left enough bread crumbs behind to make him pretty easy to doxx...or for us to puzzle out his real name after he pulls the Phil Hartman's wife routine. Or maybe he is known to some of y'all already. 

[bluto 4932]

Siap but Sweden is having an oh shit situation on their wildass rogue plan


https://apple.news/Ab5rEV8LHSoi_8OVi8dahRw

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

How is the Surly stockpile of wreaths?

[Hanrahan 1306]

I’ll go ahead and sub this for the the bat signal, but Junior Miller is on the confirmed cases thread blaming his wife for infecting him and opining about a murder suicide for her not practicing social distance. Everyone should go take a peek. 

Yeah, that’s a rare, top-level mental breakdown going on there.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Our worldometer recap


We all saw today was gonna be rough when NY came out with 730 on their own.


They actually had 2000 fewer cases than yesterday and as a country we’re under 30k cases for basically every day besides 2 since April 1. Starting to get flat line there. There’s even a tick on April 4th which is good.


Nothing stands out from the usual suspect of states from yesterday outside of NYs 2k case difference.

[PRONG HORN 3146]

[woohorn 1131]

The two people in our extended family who we were totally sure had it, fit all the symptoms, had worrying comorbidities, etc both ended up testing negative (twice). At this point it’s still pretty damn rare (unless you live in a hot spot or are in healthcare).

Are the tests 100%?

[KingBobo81 535]

I have a buddy in NYC who found out today two of his co-workers didn’t make it. One was 55, the other 30 and just married a few months ago.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[fattyflattie 4639]

5 hours ago, Deej said:

I've been having good luck with Amazon Fresh by ordering in the middle of the night

This is how we’ve been getting HEB curbside in reasonable fashion. 2 days ago, there wasn’t a slot even available. Next night my wife was up and tried them in middle of night, just picked up. 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

Been a few days since an update but still confidence Chicago is in good shape and has flattened the curve.  What's that mean around these parts?  Looks like we expect the hospitals to be stress tested quite a bit from April 10 to the first week of May.  But right now it looks like we have enough vents etc. 

I'll try to get more details later including posting what's up with COVID palliative units we are planning.  Bit scary if you or a family member has to end up in one of those.