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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 24696

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Posted

Think this is the first time I have seen it described this overtly (I got to the article from the 1point3acres tote board of death and destruction so it's on the board)

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/collin-county-reports-5th-death-in-person-with-covid-19/2347796/

Figure this is an exception but to what extent will eventually be interesting when all the Monday Morning QBing begins in earnest.

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Seger78

Seger78 258

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1 hour ago, MadBurgerMaker said:

Just got an email saying the clinical pathology department is wanting to borrow certain types of qPCRs from the labs/departments that have them (which includes mine) for COVID-19 testing purposes.  QuantStudio 3, for those interested in that sort of thing. 

Anyhow, I wonder if this is going on at all the other similar places.  Never thought about it, but those things are fairly pricey (I want to say something like 50-60k) and I suppose there aren't all THAT many of them.  There were only three on the list. 

The ABI Fast 7500 DX is a hot commodity right now since for a while that was the only machine specified by the CDC. I heard that Thermo was going to discontinue it but now they can't keep up with production.

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jimmyjazz

jimmyjazz 45554

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2 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Btw, who is rocking face masks?

I’m not yet but if I do I think I’m just going with a bandana outlaw/gangster style.

I have two N95 masks that are in decent shape.  I'm pretty much all delivery and curbside at this point, but every 5 days or so I need to go into a store, and I have no shame in wearing one.  

I don't think I've spent 5 minutes in a store in quite a while.  Get in, get out, lookin' good with the mask while I'm there.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17444

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

 

 


This guy pretty much admits what am some of us are thinking

 

Does he? His description of the form sounds fairly consistent with CDC guidelines. If the patient died with symptoms that are consistent with Covid-19 AND there is a confirmed connection with someone who has tested positive for sars-2-cov, it would be appropriate to mark Covid-19 as a cause of death. That doesn't seem unreasonable to me. There are problems with under counting (insufficient testing) and over counting (presuming too wide arrange of issues are covid-19). This policy strikes a balance between those two problems. Of course, this is not cloakroom, so I guess I'm not allowed to point out the R next to his name and suggest there may be an alternate reason for his complaint?

Edited by Dahobbs
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RayDog

RayDog 682

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2 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Btw, who is rocking face masks?

I’m not yet but if I do I think I’m just going with a bandana outlaw/gangster style.

Where I live it is a $1000 fine or 6 months in prison for not wearing a mask. And here they will keep you in jail until you come up with the $1000, and you don't want to spend a day in a Philippine jail.

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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21721

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8 minutes ago, RayDog said:

Where I live it is a $1000 fine or 6 months in prison for not wearing a mask. And here they will keep you in jail until you come up with the $1000, and you don't want to spend a day in a Philippine jail.

I thought they caned you.  Or booted you.  Or some such shit.

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dcar00

dcar00 14035

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22 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Does he? His description of the form sounds fairly consistent with CDC guidelines. If the patient died with symptoms that are consistent with Covid-19 AND there is a confirmed connection with someone who has tested positive for sars-2-cov, it would be appropriate to mark Covid-19 as a cause of death. That doesn't seem unreasonable to me. There are problems with under counting (insufficient testing) and over counting (presuming too wide arrange of issues are covid-19). This policy strikes a balance between those two problems. Of course, this is not cloakroom, so I guess I'm not allowed to point out the R next to his name and suggest there may be an alternate reason for his complaint?

what I heard him say was that "if a person has pneumonia and dies but was never diagnosed with covid19" but I didn't hear him say "symptoms that are consistent with Covid19 and dies"  maybe he did and I missed it.

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msucolt45

msucolt45 3989

Posted
Posted

In San Antonio it’s already too warm to go full Outlaw/Cowboy, but from my years of Cowboys Shooting, I’ve got plenty of bandanas for the family.

Two days ago I was all “outlaw” at our HEB, rocking a paisley bandana with my trusty Titleist (Longhorn) cap! No jorts, just regular shorts!

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Hanrahan

Hanrahan 1306

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Does he? His description of the form sounds fairly consistent with CDC guidelines. If the patient died with symptoms that are consistent with Covid-19 AND there is a confirmed connection with someone who has tested positive for sars-2-cov, it would be appropriate to mark Covid-19 as a cause of death. That doesn't seem unreasonable to me. There are problems with under counting (insufficient testing) and over counting (presuming too wide arrange of issues are covid-19). This policy strikes a balance between those two problems. Of course, this is not cloakroom, so I guess I'm not allowed to point out the R next to his name and suggest there may be an alternate reason for his complaint?

Did you hear him state that they only look at facts when they fill out the death certificate?
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MadBurgerMaker

MadBurgerMaker 403

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1 hour ago, Seger78 said:

The ABI Fast 7500 DX is a hot commodity right now since for a while that was the only machine specified by the CDC. I heard that Thermo was going to discontinue it but now they can't keep up with production.

Damn I didn't know they were still making that series.  We had a 7900, which has been discontinued, that crapped out in August or so and was so old it wasn't worth getting it repaired.

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8799

Posted
Posted

Worldometer reset


Daily cases down 5k, a lot of the heavy hitters reporting hundreds fewer yesterday. 28k vs 33k

Deaths down 100, NY, NJ, Mich all with triple digit numbers.


I’d say 50% of the US has states with 2500 cases or less. Good to see those states mostly with single digit deaths

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17444

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1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

what I heard him say was that "if a person has pneumonia and dies but was never diagnosed with covid19" but I didn't hear him say "symptoms that are consistent with Covid19 and dies"  maybe he did and I missed it.

Pneumonia is a specific diagnosis that is entirely consistent with one of the main ways we know covid19 causes death. He also said, and I think this is a very important bit, the decedent needed to have contact with someone that has been confirmed to be sars-cov-2 positive. This doesn't sound like an over broad criteria to me. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14035

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Posted
1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Pneumonia is a specific diagnosis that is entirely consistent with one of the main ways we know covid19 causes death. He also said, and I think this is a very important bit, the decedent needed to have contact with someone that has been confirmed to be sars-cov-2 positive. This doesn't sound like an over broad criteria to me. 

why doesn't minnesota just order a test for anyone dying of pneumonia.  why make a doctor guess?  the whole thing is silly.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17444

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2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

why doesn't minnesota just order a test for anyone dying of pneumonia.  why make a doctor guess?  the whole thing is silly.

Yeah, gee, I hadn't thought of that. I can't believe no one has thought of just doing more testing! <end sarcasm>

I assume the reason the hospital system did this is to ration the limited number of tests we have for people that can actually be treated. That is completely reasonable given the circumstances. I agree, it would be awesome if we had enough tests to go around. But we don't. And we never have. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14035

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Posted

 

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yeah, gee, I hadn't thought of that. I can't believe no one has thought of just doing more testing! <end sarcasm>

I assume the reason the hospital system did this is to ration the limited number of tests we have for people that can actually be treated. That is completely reasonable given the circumstances. I agree, it would be awesome if we had enough tests to go around. But we don't. And we never have. 

Minnesota has 39 deaths its not like they have 1000 people dying a day of pneumonia.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17444

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18 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

 

Minnesota has 39 deaths its not like they have 1000 people dying a day of pneumonia.

You realize the test is the same regardless of whether the person is alive or dead, right? There isn't like a separate dead person only test. The point here is to save the tests for living. There aren't enough tests nationwide, period. It isn't a Minnesota specific issue. 

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dcar00

dcar00 14035

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55 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

You realize the test is the same regardless of whether the person is alive or dead, right? There isn't like a separate dead person only test. The point here is to save the tests for living. There aren't enough tests nationwide, period. It isn't a Minnesota specific issue. 

yes I realize that.  you realize that they are saying a person who has pneumonia(living at the time) hasn't had a covid 19 test yet.  pneumonia is one of the main results of covid19. so much so that Minnesota said if they die of it and have contact they should classify it as Covid19.  why not just run the test?  there are many situations where a covid19 positive person has people living with them that don't have it.  in fact I think ChiTownDoc had that situation. Its not like they are wasting 2 tests they never did an initial one for a person who has pneumonia.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17444

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30 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

yes I realize that.  you realize that they are saying a person who has pneumonia(living at the time) hasn't had a covid 19 test yet.  pneumonia is one of the main results of covid19. so much so that Minnesota said if they die of it and have contact they should classify it as Covid19.  why not just run the test?  there are many situations where a covid19 positive person has people living with them that don't have it.  in fact I think ChiTownDoc had that situation. Its not like they are wasting 2 tests they never did an initial one for a person who has pneumonia.

Because they don't have the tests to spare? Why is this so hard? Do I need to go a pull all the articles about coroners being unable to run tests because they don't have them? Yes, in a perfect scenario you just run the test. We don't live in the perfect scenario. 

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6232

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I understand the concern that some jurisdictions may be "over counting" COVID deaths.  However, a discussion on another UT site brought up a good point. There are about 155,000 deaths per year in NY state in recent years, which works out to about 425 deaths per day. Right now, NY is reporting about 800 COVID deaths per day. Even if they somehow attributed all "normal" deaths to COVID (which is of course unlikely), that's only about half the daily total.  This just puts things in a little bit of perspective.  

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stork642

stork642 4498

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7 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I’ve crunched some numbers over lunch. It appears that every person that dies of covid this year would have eventually died of something else at some point in the future. And this is irrespective of milk consumption!  So the true death rate is zero. Covid will kill zero otherwise immortal beings. 

China would like to offer you a job in their ministry of adjusted numbers office.  

Edited by stork642
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dcar00

dcar00 14035

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Just now, Dahobbs said:

Because they don't have the tests to spare? Why is this so hard? Do I need to go a pull all the articles about coroners being unable to run tests because they don't have them? Yes, in a perfect scenario you just run the test. We don't live in the perfect scenario. 

we've run 2M tests and have 14K deaths.  people are getting tests but you don't want to confirm that someone died with covid19?  the worst pandemic in 100 years. 

  to be honest I fault any doctor who doesn't run a covid19 test on someone who has pneumonia or is in for some respiratory distress.  IMO, Its bullshit to not test for covid if you are going to mark the death due to covid.  its a smaller percentage that die without covid test who could potentially have it, so we aren't talking about testing everyone who dies.  why not just mark them died of pneumonia?

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stork642

stork642 4498

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Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, bschoolprof said:

I understand the concern that some jurisdictions may be "over counting" COVID deaths.  However, a discussion on another UT site brought up a good point. There are about 155,000 deaths per year in NY state in recent years, which works out to about 425 deaths per day. Right now, NY is reporting about 800 COVID deaths per day. Even if they somehow attributed all "normal" deaths to COVID (which is of course unlikely), that's only about half the daily total.  This just puts things in a little bit of perspective.  

So what is NY’s total deaths per day right now? Should be around 1250 based off the avg + COVID deaths correct?  Does anyone report total numbers of deaths for NY?  If it is lower than 1250 than something may not be correct in the COVID reporting.  

Edited by stork642
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17444

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22 minutes ago, stork642 said:

So what is NY’s total deaths per day right now? Should be around 1250 based off the avg + COVID deaths correct?  Does anyone report total numbers of deaths for NY?  If it is lower than 1250 than something may not be correct in the COVID reporting.  

Deaths due to crime, accidents, and other causes are down due to the shutdown. 

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Digdogger

Digdogger 1343

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Deaths due to crime, accidents, and other causes are down due to the shutdown. 

I just got off a Zoom for our biweekly meeting of the Board of Directors for the National Association for Awareness of AEA or NAAAEA as most of you may know it, and the numbers right now are showing that AEA related deaths are up 363% since the quarantine started.  So that’s troubling.

Edited by Digdogger
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17444

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33 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

we've run 2M tests and have 14K deaths.  people are getting tests but you don't want to confirm that someone died with covid19?  the worst pandemic in 100 years. 

  to be honest I fault any doctor who doesn't run a covid19 test on someone who has pneumonia or is in for some respiratory distress.  IMO, Its bullshit to not test for covid if you are going to mark the death due to covid.  its a smaller percentage that die without covid test who could potentially have it, so we aren't talking about testing everyone who dies.  why not just mark them died of pneumonia?

You're so weird. I would love to test everyone. We dont have enough tests for that. We dont want to significantly under count because it is important for us to have accurate information in order to make sound policy decision. We also dont want to over count. The hospitals policy is an attempt to balance those concerns given the limited availability of testing. You can't just order a test that isnt available. 

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bschoolprof

bschoolprof 6232

Posted
Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, stork642 said:

So what is NY’s total deaths per day right now? Should be around 1250 based off the avg + COVID deaths correct?  Does anyone report total numbers of deaths for NY?  If it is lower than 1250 than something may not be correct in the COVID reporting.  

Not in real time I don't think.  The CDC analyzes and categorizes all death certificates in the US as part of the National Vital Statistical Reports, but this takes a long time (many months after the fact).  

Edited by bschoolprof
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17444

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3 minutes ago, Digdogger said:

I just got off a Zoom for our biweekly meeting of the Board of Directors for the National Association for Awareness of AEA or NAAAEA as most of you may know it, and the numbers right now are showing that AEA related deaths are up 363% since the quarantine started.  So that’s troubling.

What are those things? I did a google and nothing obvious came up. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62230

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44 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Because they don't have the tests to spare? Why is this so hard? Do I need to go a pull all the articles about coroners being unable to run tests because they don't have them? Yes, in a perfect scenario you just run the test. We don't live in the perfect scenario. 

Yes, if you don’t mind, this thread would like to see “all the articles about coroners being unable to run tests because they don’t have them”. It sounds like you’ve either read a lot of articles like this and kept them to yourself, or you might have seen one and have multiplied that into your reality. Good to know either way, just hoping it’s not totally made up bullshit and you can’t even identify one. 

In any event, you’re being argumentative to obfuscate an actual point. If deaths are being overstated, that’s a problem. I’ve personally been assuming they’ve been understated and that it just winds up being noise in the data because it is likely that that is the case around the globe, so at least it’s somewhat consistent. Minnesota hasn’t had enough deaths to credibly argue that a few tests in order to be accurate with their progress aren’t merited. Mayo Clinic is testing so many people that they’re handling cases from other the states. The premise that they couldn’t run a couple of tests a day on post mortem candidate cases is fucking absurd. No one is calling for the need to test car wreck fatalities or murders, so you’re position is fucking ridiculous. 

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