Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[The Royal We 3100]

5 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I think this is more of an indication that the Federal Government sees the need for local governments to handle local testing and for the Feds to focus on the country-wide need to get the economy going/save jobs. And I hate the word "defunding". 

Where the hell are small rural communities and even larger cities in poor states going to get the funds to pay for local testing?  Call it defunding, call it cut off, call it whatever you want, but if the US govt is dumping money all over the place, then cutting funds for testing seems insane.  That's going to be a cornerstone of any plan to dig our way out of this - failure to continue funding tests is going to end up costing us a hell of a lot more on the other end.

[F250 29200]

28 minutes ago, Scary Stranger said:

Are they already included in case #'s for the states where they are stationed?

Probably not. One of the big complaints about the military's handling of CV19 in San Antonio is their refusal to share infection numbers with the city. There are thousands of military personnel living off base so it would be nice to know for tracking purposes but the military isn't sharing that information.

 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

1 minute ago, The Royal We said:

Where the hell are small rural communities and even larger cities in poor states going to get the funds to pay for local testing?  Call it defunding, call it cut off, call it whatever you want, but if the US govt is dumping money all over the place, then cutting funds for testing seems insane.  That's going to be a cornerstone of any plan to dig our way out of this - failure to continue funding tests is going to end up costing us a hell of a lot more on the other end.

"The transition will ensure each state has the flexibility and autonomy to manage and operate testing sites within the needs of their specific community and to prioritize resources where they are needed the most," the HHS spokesperson said.

Sometimes you need to read past the headlines...

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 minutes ago, F250 said:

Probably not. One of the big complaints about the military's handling of CV19 in San Antonio is their refusal to share infection numbers with the city. There are thousands of military personnel living off base so it would be nice to know for tracking purposes but the military isn't sharing that information.

 

Nor should they.

[Skipper 6411]

18 minutes ago, Hate said:

I don’t see a full return to normal until there is a vaccine or at least a simple treatment that can be prescribed to get rid of the infection. It need to be something similar to a strep test done at a doctor’s office and then a 10 day prescription of “whatever” medicine there is to “cure” it. I have no idea what the partial roll out of normal will be, but it’s going to cause flare ups frequently.

I don't think you necessarily need a 'cure'.  You just need something that significantly limits the severity.   If you could reduce hospital admissions/ICU admissions to a point that it would be extremely unlikely to overrun the increased infrastructure and reduce death rates to something that looks like a really bad flu season, that would drastically change policy and may be a risk most could live with then you continue to isolate those (elderly) that would continue to be most as risk.   I don't know how likely we are to find that, determine it's safe, and mass produce it before a vaccine, but that's probably our best bet.

[F250 29200]

Just now, Onboard 2.0 said:

Nor should they.

I understand the reason but they should also bring in all their personnel on base. No one wants a shit ton of unknown infected fucko-s wandering around in their backyard.

 

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

Just now, F250 said:

No one wants a shit ton of unknown infected fucko-s wandering around in their backyard.

Unless you are in College Station.

[NoName 17148]

12 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Mattress Mack is handing out meals to the needy all day at his store.  Freaking love that man.

Agreed. He is great!

[Nice Guy Eddie 13729]

7 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Nor should they.

If people live off-base, its a public health concern if they are ill with a contagious disease. If the military wants to pull all personnel on-base, then they can keep quiet.

[Macanudo 13320]

4 minutes ago, F250 said:

I understand the reason but they should also bring in all their personnel on base. No one wants a shit ton of unknown infected fucko-s wandering around in their backyard.

 

Uh, how do you do that plus dependents?  It's not like there are just hundreds of extra barrack beds laying around being unused.  

[The Royal We 3100]

12 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

"The transition will ensure each state has the flexibility and autonomy to manage and operate testing sites within the needs of their specific community and to prioritize resources where they are needed the most," the HHS spokesperson said.

Sometimes you need to read past the headlines...

 

I read it, but I don't really see how your quoted section addresses the ability of smaller communities to fund the the testing supplies or LabCorp type contracts.  Flexibility and autonomy sound great, but does that mean they will continue to fund the areas where resources are needed but they can't pay for it?

[Txzen 514]

5 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I don't think you necessarily need a 'cure'.  You just need something that significantly limits the severity.   If you could reduce hospital admissions/ICU admissions to a point that it would be extremely unlikely to overrun the increased infrastructure and reduce death rates to something that looks like a really bad flu season, that would drastically change policy and may be a risk most could live with then you continue to isolate those (elderly) that would continue to be most as risk.   I don't know how likely we are to find that, determine it's safe, and mass produce it before a vaccine, but that's probably our best bet.

Perhaps, but it's also the scale of production for whatever that treatment is. We know already that there are shortages of hydroxycholoroquine (and that's due to some minor hoarding and its expanded used in trials), and while Gilead is spooling up production of rendemisvir, right now the supply is only 1.5 million doses. It's possible that the production and rollout of a vaccine may be the only way to really 'control' this. I'm not sure there's enough supply of drugs worldwide for everyone to be prescribed these meds, and certainly not for prophylactic use. 

[JesusSweatDuck 18109]

1 minute ago, Macanudo said:

Uh, how do you do that plus dependents?  It's not like there are just hundreds of extra barrack beds laying around being unused.  

You don't pull dependents.  You setup more war time like living quarters.  It sucks, but that's the reality.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13729]

1 minute ago, Macanudo said:

Uh, how do you do that plus dependents?  It's not like there are just hundreds of extra barrack beds laying around being unused.  

Then work with local officials so that we can help to control the problem. Keeping quiet about this in some vague attempt of national security is how this backfires on you. 

"We don't want anyone to know if the military is healthy enough to perform their duties so let's keep it quiet so we can ensure that people get sick and we can't perform our duties."

[Pato del Muerto 53484]

4 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Uh, how do you do that plus dependents?  It's not like there are just hundreds of extra barrack beds laying around being unused.  

The dependents stay where they are, just like during many deployments. 

[Brisketexan 106890]

Just now, The Royal We said:

I read it, but I don't really see how your quoted section addresses the ability of smaller communities to fund the the testing supplies or LabCorp type contracts.  Flexibility and autonomy sound great, but does that mean they will continue to fund the areas where resources are needed but they can't pay for it?

There's an incredibly simple way to do this: Federal contracts with large chains that already have pharmacies/clinics up and running: CVS, Walgreens, Walmart, Fastmed, etc.  If needed, make additional funding available to states to enter into similar contracts with smaller, local providers (to cover small towns and such).  

Start with a GOAL -- I would suggest that the goal is for every person to have access to instant testing within twenty minutes of their home, excluding rural areas that are so spread out that such distance can't be achieved.  In such area, maybe within an hour of their home.  Then build a solution that does that.

In EVERY SINGLE LOGISTICAL MISSION, the starting point has to be setting the goal -- the "what you want to get done."  Only AFTER that is decided to you build the "how."

My goal is what I suggested.  My how is federal and state contracts with existing providers to do so.  Use resources that already exist.  And the last piece....contract with every possible manufacturer you can to make tests -- round the clock, whatever it takes.  And then distribute them to the resources you've contracted with, with a mechanism to prioritize areas experiencing a current spike in cases.

[F250 29200]

5 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Uh, how do you do that plus dependents?  It's not like there are just hundreds of extra barrack beds laying around being unused.  

No shit. It would be easier to just share the fucking information with the city wouldn't it? But that would endanger their ability to protect us from an invasion from the Norks so obviously a the virus is less of a threat than the Norks.

[Sgt Hulk 14435]

21 minutes ago, F250 said:

Probably not. One of the big complaints about the military's handling of CV19 in San Antonio is their refusal to share infection numbers with the city. There are thousands of military personnel living off base so it would be nice to know for tracking purposes but the military isn't sharing that information.

 

yeah lets go ahead and share how much our defense fighting force is infected.  Nah 

[bullzak 428]

If there is a treatment where I won't die or have any real chance at lasting damage, I will be watching games at Wrigley Field in a month. 

Absent that, no large gatherings happening. Lots of promise out there, and it seems like antibody/plasma could work, but scaling that is going to take a while. 

Forget MLB and NBA. I think football on hold unless we have some major medical development by Fourth of July. 

Opening up and then going back to wide scale shutdowns is a disaster. Cant happen. 

[Brisketexan 106890]

7 minutes ago, Txzen said:

Perhaps, but it's also the scale of production for whatever that treatment is. We know already that there are shortages of hydroxycholoroquine (and that's due to some minor hoarding and its expanded used in trials), and while Gilead is spooling up production of rendemisvir, right now the supply is only 1.5 million doses. It's possible that the production and rollout of a vaccine may be the only way to really 'control' this. I'm not sure there's enough supply of drugs worldwide for everyone to be prescribed these meds, and certainly not for prophylactic use. 

When we find something that works (if that's rendemisvir, great), then we need to mandate licensing to any facility that can manufacture it.  The government can take private property for a public purpose....of course, it's best to negotiate that in advance, as opposed to pay for the cost of condemnation later.  But tell Gilead that they need to agree to license the manufacture of rendemisvir at these 10 locations in the US, owned by other companies, that can spin up production quickly.  Pay the companies a manufacturing fee, and Gilead gets the value of the license.

I have a WWII era M-1 carbine that was manufactured by the Underwood typewriter company.  We've done this shit before.

[InkaUtexas 26874]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

When we find something that works (if that's rendemisvir, great), then we need to mandate licensing to any facility that can manufacture it.  The government can take private property for a public purpose....of course, it's best to negotiate that in advance, as opposed to pay for the cost of condemnation later.  But tell Gilead that they need to agree to license the manufacture of rendemisvir at these 10 locations in the US, owned by other companies, that can spin up production quickly.  Pay the companies a manufacturing fee, and Gilead gets the value of the license.

I have a WWII era M-1 carbine that was manufactured by the Underwood typewriter company.  We've done this shit before.

hehehe, damn fine weapon there Sir. Para or long stock? 

[Sgt Hulk 14435]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

There's an incredibly simple way to do this: Federal contracts with large chains that already have pharmacies/clinics up and running: CVS, Walgreens, Walmart, Fastmed, etc.  If needed, make additional funding available to states to enter into similar contracts with smaller, local providers (to cover small towns and such).  

Start with a GOAL -- I would suggest that the goal is for every person to have access to instant testing within twenty minutes of their home, excluding rural areas that are so spread out that such distance can't be achieved.  In such area, maybe within an hour of their home.  Then build a solution that does that.

In EVERY SINGLE LOGISTICAL MISSION, the starting point has to be setting the goal -- the "what you want to get done."  Only AFTER that is decided to you build the "how."

My goal is what I suggested.  My how is federal and state contracts with existing providers to do so.  Use resources that already exist.  And the last piece....contract with every possible manufacturer you can to make tests -- round the clock, whatever it takes.  And then distribute them to the resources you've contracted with, with a mechanism to prioritize areas experiencing a current spike in cases.

unfortunately thats now how federal contracting exists sadly. state and local governments could, but getting through the red tape of the FAR, statutes and regs make contracting direct to large corps without an approved J&A long and cumbersome, you could likely get a -6 in place for national emergency, but it is unlikely with the way the funding is.  The AF has already delegated and relaxed a ton of regs and requirements in the contracting world to speed acquisition, but with each branch doing its own version of contracting,  you would need fema or DHS or someone to handle this and even then they arent exempt from the FAR.  I really hope after all this is over that we see some of these new policies remain the norm in acquisition

[smuggs 9397]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

hehehe, damn fine weapon there Sir. Para or long stock? 

Comic Sans.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13729]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

When we find something that works (if that's rendemisvir, great), then we need to mandate licensing to any facility that can manufacture it.  The government can take private property for a public purpose....of course, it's best to negotiate that in advance, as opposed to pay for the cost of condemnation later.  But tell Gilead that they need to agree to license the manufacture of rendemisvir at these 10 locations in the US, owned by other companies, that can spin up production quickly.  Pay the companies a manufacturing fee, and Gilead gets the value of the license.

I have a WWII era M-1 carbine that was manufactured by the Underwood typewriter company.  We've done this shit before.

the design is a bit odd

[InkaUtexas 26874]

3 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

unfortunately thats now how federal contracting exists sadly. state and local governments could, but getting through the red tape of the FAR, statutes and regs make contracting direct to large corps without an approved J&A long and cumbersome, you could likely get a -6 in place for national emergency, but it is unlikely with the way the funding is.  The AF has already delegated and relaxed a ton of regs and requirements in the contracting world to speed acquisition, but with each branch doing its own version of contracting,  you would need fema or DHS or someone to handle this and even then they arent exempt from the FAR.  I really hope after all this is over that we see some of these new policies remain the norm in acquisition

They are moving in that direction now. Was sent an email from the Air Force liaison today trying to buy PPE for the US Embassy in Denmark. Pretty cool coordination. 

[pacman 7507]

ha, typewriter gun actually does yield image results

 

of course, now the NSA via google thinks I am trying to make a gun out of my typewriter

Edited April 9, 2020 by pacman

[KYHorn 17614]

49 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Why didn't we just buy/license that?

According to this article (https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-coronavirus-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind), SK used the WHO test and (as mentioned above) already had the infrastructure to and knowledge of the importance of extensive testing from their experience with MERS. The CDC wanted to develop their own (I haven't looked much into the reasons for this). 

Mass testing is a big part of this, however, that's not the whole story to their success. As I posted a few days ago (see: https://chp-dashboard.geodata.gov.hk/covid-19/en.html), many Asian countries very early on used extraordinary tracking tools and publicly posted that information (de-identified tracking of every place every infected person had been in the past 2-3 weeks). This has clearly worked well for these countries. The feasibility both practically and politically in the USA is a different question.

Edited April 9, 2020 by KYHorn

[Sgt Hulk 14435]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

They are moving in that direction now. Was sent an email from the Air Force liaison today trying to buy PPE for the US Embassy in Denmark. Pretty cool coordination. 

 

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

They are moving in that direction now. Was sent an email from the Air Force liaison today trying to buy PPE for the US Embassy in Denmark. Pretty cool coordination. 

yeah man its amazing how fast we can move when shit hits the fan, and how hamstrung and tied up we are when we are not.  Every week i sit on a call with leadership and every week we bring up lessons learned in all this.  I mentioned back 2 weeks ago that if we all revert back to teh slow status quo after this we are a failure of a service.  it didnt fly well but others get it.  our guys are moving faster than ever and I assume the other branches are moving the same.  

[Macanudo 13320]

Do we disclose the address of a civilian who has tested positive and publicly doxxed them?  Nope.  Then why cant the military report the number of cases they have and fatalities?  It's not like we're going to publish the name, rank and serial number of the service member.

 

[Trey3216 15452]

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

There's an incredibly simple way to do this: Federal contracts with large chains that already have pharmacies/clinics up and running: CVS, Walgreens, Walmart, Fastmed, etc.  If needed, make additional funding available to states to enter into similar contracts with smaller, local providers (to cover small towns and such).  

Start with a GOAL -- I would suggest that the goal is for every person to have access to instant testing within twenty minutes of their home, excluding rural areas that are so spread out that such distance can't be achieved.  In such area, maybe within an hour of their home.  Then build a solution that does that.

In EVERY SINGLE LOGISTICAL MISSION, the starting point has to be setting the goal -- the "what you want to get done."  Only AFTER that is decided to you build the "how."

My goal is what I suggested.  My how is federal and state contracts with existing providers to do so.  Use resources that already exist.  And the last piece....contract with every possible manufacturer you can to make tests -- round the clock, whatever it takes.  And then distribute them to the resources you've contracted with, with a mechanism to prioritize areas experiencing a current spike in cases.

I’d actually entertain setting up testing at Dollar General in the rural areas as there’s one in every town north of 200 people. 

[InkaUtexas 26874]

Just now, Sgt Hulk said:

 

yeah man its amazing how fast we can move when shit hits the fan, and how hamstrung and tied up we are when we are not.  Every week i sit on a call with leadership and every week we bring up lessons learned in all this.  I mentioned back 2 weeks ago that if we all revert back to teh slow status quo after this we are a failure of a service.  it didnt fly well but others get it.  our guys are moving faster than ever and I assume the other branches are moving the same.  

Yep, still hitting road blocks on our end as industry with a support we know the states need, but we keep pushing forward. biggest issue I still see are the turf wars. HHS vs FEMA, DHA vs USACE. But impressed with what I am seeing. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

26 minutes ago, F250 said:

I understand the reason but they should also bring in all their personnel on base. No one wants a shit ton of unknown infected fucko-s wandering around in their backyard.

 

That I agree with, in a controlled way of course, and it's not needed for all personnel IMO.  

The son is Air Force, at Nellis AFB in Nevada. His job has been shut down so he's been at his off base apt. in Las Vegas since early March.  He is virus free so no need to make him to go to a place where he might get it.

[InkaUtexas 26874]

2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

That I agree with, in a controlled way of course, and it's not needed for all personnel IMO.  

The son is Air Force, at Nellis AFB in Nevada. His job has been shut down so he's been at his off base apt. in Las Vegas since early March.  He is virus free so no need to make him to go to a place where he might get it.

The military is part of the community in the US. We designed it to be this way. Citizen Soldiers. It is not like that everywhere else. So San Antonio? Do you like their spending in non pandemic times? Do you like the DOD funds that go to your schools? Do you like it when civilians are immediately treated at BAMC?

Jesus, not the right time for anyone to start bitching about any human in the US and where they should be. We are all in this folks. Suck it up. We can do this, but only united. 

[closetojumping 65413]

Texas DHS updated their dashboard yesterday or today with some pretty useful new information consolidated in one place - totals for beds, icu beds, and ventilators; totals for each of those currently available; you can break it all the way down to MSA/CMSA region, or something akin to that.

Some of you guys that track beds and availability from other sources might find it helpful as an additional resource. The situation in Texas, whatever our fears of the future for this are, is currently positive by comparison to numerous other places. I recognize there are places faring better than others in our giant state, but that is to be expected. 

Here's the link for those who don't have it: https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

The military is part of the community in the US. We designed it to be this way. Citizen Soldiers. It is not like that everywhere else. So San Antonio? Do you like their spending in non pandemic times? Do you like the DOD funds that go to your schools? Do you like it when civilians are immediately treated at BAMC?

Jesus, not the right time for anyone to start bitching about any human in the US and where they should be. We are all in this folks. Suck it up. We can do this, but only united. 

Solid point, sort of civics 101 stuff.

[Sgt Hulk 14435]

38 minutes ago, F250 said:

I understand the reason but they should also bring in all their personnel on base. No one wants a shit ton of unknown infected fucko-s wandering around in their backyard.

 

i can always tell whos never served.   thanks to budget cuts and military cuts over years, along with privatization of housing, and BRAC, many bases no longer have housing, nor do they have enough housing.  I waited 22 months at one location for a place to open for me.  Its not that simple 

[kevwun 16438]

Density and lack of public transportation.  It explains why New York is so bad.  I am guessing they are at the top of density and public transportation use in the US.

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, that would explain those Southern Louisiana subways.  I think one of the A-train cars is named...Desire.

Edited April 9, 2020 by Lobo

[Brisketexan 106890]

21 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

hehehe, damn fine weapon there Sir. Para or long stock? 

Long stock.  Bolt blew up on me years ago, though (seriously, blew out the bolt and blew out the magazine below on a misfire).  Need to replace the entire assembly.  Still, it was cool when shortly after I got it, I took it out to my uncle's ranch that my grandfather ran as a hobby.  He saw it laying on the picnic table, and picked it up, turning it over in his hands quietly.  After a minute he just said "I carried one of these all the way to Germany."  None of us said a word, we just let him remember.

12 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I’d actually entertain setting up testing at Dollar General in the rural areas as there’s one in every town north of 200 people. 

Yes, because we all want Lurleen administering tests.

I mean, the location's good -- I just wonder about the availability of qualified personnel to administer the tests.

[workswithseed 2204]

16 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

According to this article (https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-coronavirus-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind), SK used the WHO test and (as mentioned above) already had the infrastructure to and knowledge of the importance of extensive testing from their experience with MERS. The CDC wanted to develop their own (I haven't looked much into the reasons for this). 

Mass testing is a big part of this, however, that's not the whole story to their success. As I posted a few days ago (see: https://chp-dashboard.geodata.gov.hk/covid-19/en.html), many Asian countries very early on used extraordinary tracking tools and publicly posted that information (de-identified tracking of every place every infected person had been in the past 2-3 weeks). This has clearly worked well for these countries. The feasibility both practically and politically in the USA is a different question.

Isn't cause they've had to deal with China's shit? 

Edited April 9, 2020 by workswithseed

[InkaUtexas 26874]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Long stock.  Bolt blew up on me years ago, though (seriously, blew out the bolt and blew out the magazine below on a misfire).  Need to replace the entire assembly.  Still, it was cool when shortly after I got it, I took it out to my uncle's ranch that my grandfather ran as a hobby.  He saw it laying on the picnic table, and picked it up, turning it over in his hands quietly.  After a minute he just said "I carried one of these all the way to Germany."  None of us said a word, we just let him remember.

Grandfather jumped into St. Marie carrying one. This is why I have the para model Daughter has the full stock. My dad carried one with the ARVN rangers when being an advisor was still cool. Great story. Great rifle. And yes, we should go to that level of production. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8983]

Density and lack of public transportation.  It explains why New York is so bad.  I am guessing they are at the top of density and public transportation use in the US.

They are, by a long shot

[Trey3216 15452]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Long stock.  Bolt blew up on me years ago, though (seriously, blew out the bolt and blew out the magazine below on a misfire).  Need to replace the entire assembly.  Still, it was cool when shortly after I got it, I took it out to my uncle's ranch that my grandfather ran as a hobby.  He saw it laying on the picnic table, and picked it up, turning it over in his hands quietly.  After a minute he just said "I carried one of these all the way to Germany."  None of us said a word, we just let him remember.

Yes, because we all want Lurleen administering tests.

I mean, the location's good -- I just wonder about the availability of qualified personnel to administer the tests.

I meant the locations, absolutely not for Buddy or Gertrude to be administering tests. 

[Macanudo 13320]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Long stock.  Bolt blew up on me years ago, though (seriously, blew out the bolt and blew out the magazine below on a misfire).  Need to replace the entire assembly.  Still, it was cool when shortly after I got it, I took it out to my uncle's ranch that my grandfather ran as a hobby.  He saw it laying on the picnic table, and picked it up, turning it over in his hands quietly.  After a minute he just said "I carried one of these all the way to Germany."  None of us said a word, we just let him remember.

Yes, because we all want Lurleen administering tests.

I mean, the location's good -- I just wonder about the availability of qualified personnel to administer the tests.

I bet small town Lurleen knows how to do a lot of things most people dont know. 

[Brisketexan 106890]

Just now, Macanudo said:

I bet small town Lurleen knows how to do a lot of things most people dont know. 

She does.  And if the cure to COVID involves pounding wine coolers in a field while yelling "Ah LUV this jam!" every time a Luke Bryan tune comes on the radio, she'll surely save us all.

[ChiTownDoc 21345]

This is as of a few hours ago.  Most agree there will be states that flare later but overall as of now, this seems like a fair assessment of where most states are at.  As the users on this thread know, modeling can change rather quickly.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/updated-covid-19-projections-are-out-the-new-peak-dates-in-each-state.html?origin=BHRE&utm_source=BHRE&utm_medium=email&oly_enc_id=7221B9683990F9B

Peak demand for hospital resources due to COVID-19 is expected this week in the U.S., according to updated projections from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle. 

The model, first released in late March, presents estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 for each state in the U.S. if social distancing measures are maintained through May. Researchers used state-level hospital capacity data, data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from the World Health Organization, and observed COVID-19 utilization from select locations.

When IHME first released its model, the only place where the number of daily deaths had already peaked was Wuhan, China. The data from Wuhan formed the basis for IHME's estimation of the time from implementation of social distancing policies to the peak day of deaths. That estimation is now based on data from Wuhan and seven locations in Spain and Italy where the number of daily deaths appears to be peaking or to have peaked. The model has also been updated to use three different weighting schemes to better approximate the variation in potential policy impact across social distancing mandates. 

Projections for peak demand for resources, namely hospital beds and ventilators, also changed after IHME incorporated new data sources into its model and made changes to its analytical framework. Access more information about the changes here. 

According to the most recent projections, which use data updated April 8, peak demand for hospital resources will occur at the national level on April 11. However, this varies by state. Below is the projected date of peak demand for hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators in each state according to the IHME model. 

April 1
Vermont 

April 2
Washington 

April 4
Louisiana 

April 7
Michigan 

April 8
Colorado 
New York 
Ohio 

April 9
Delaware 
District of Columbia 

April 11
Illinois 
New Jersey 

April 12
Hawaii 

April 13
California 
Pennsylvania 
Wisconsin 

April 14
Idaho 
Indiana 

April 15
North Carolina 
West Virginia 

April 16
Mississippi 
New Hampshire 

April 17
Alaska 
Maine
Maryland
Nevada 
Tennessee 

April 20
Alabama 
Georgia
Kansas
Massachusetts
Montana
Virginia 

April 21
Connecticut 
Florida 
Kentucky 
Missouri 
New Mexico 
North Dakota 

April 22
Arizona 
Oregon 
Texas

April 23
Minnesota
Oklahoma 

April 24
South Carolina 

April 25
Arkansas
Rhode Island 
Utah 

April 26
Nebraska 

April 27
Iowa 
South Dakota 

April 29
Wyoming

[F250 29200]

15 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

That I agree with, in a controlled way of course, and it's not needed for all personnel IMO.  

The son is Air Force, at Nellis AFB in Nevada. His job has been shut down so he's been at his off base apt. in Las Vegas since early March.  He is virus free so no need to make him to go to a place where he might get it.

My son is an Air Force cadet and is supposed to attend field training this summer. I believe he is awaiting further instructions on what will happen this summer with regards to training. I expect him to be in my house once he initially returns. I'll just make sure he gets a Silkwood shower before I let him inside the house.

[Loco 3754]

Interesting article...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html

 

Quote

New research indicates that the coronavirus began to circulate in the New York area by mid-February, weeks before the first confirmed case, and that travelers brought in the virus mainly from Europe, not Asia.

“The majority is clearly European,” said Harm van Bakel, a geneticist at Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, who co-wrote a study awaiting peer review.

A separate team at N.Y.U. Grossman School of Medicine came to strikingly similar conclusions, despite studying a different group of cases. Both teams analyzed genomes from coronaviruses taken from New Yorkers starting in mid-March.

The research revealed a previously hidden spread of the virus that might have been detected if aggressive testing programs had been put in place.

On Jan. 31, President Trump barred foreign nationals from entering the country if they had been in China during the prior two weeks.

It would not be until late February that Italy would begin locking down towns and cities, and March 11 when Mr. Trump said he would block travelers from most European countries. But New Yorkers had already been traveling home with the virus.

 

[jimmyjazz 47181]

It's encouraging to see the numbers in Texas remain relatively low.  It's discouraging to think we might be 2 weeks from peak demand on hospital resources.

I swear, it feels like I have to have "the talk" with my teenagers every other day.  No, you're not going anywhere to meet your buddies, even on your bike, even if you don't go in any stores or restaurants (which are mostly closed anyway).  And yes, I'm sorry your senior year kinda sucks at the end.  You're alive.

[Sgt Hulk 14435]

1 minute ago, F250 said:

My son is an Air Force cadet and is supposed to attend field training this summer. I believe he is awaiting further instructions on what will happen this summer with regards to training. I expect him to be in my house once he initially returns. I'll just make sure he gets a Silkwood shower before I let him inside the house.

AETC has a memo out right now that allows students as mandatory movers, depending on the training, his may get delayed but PCS and school slots shouldnt be affected  time will tell i wouldnt be surprised to see his field training delayed or truncated