Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's encouraging to see the numbers in Texas remain relatively low.  It's discouraging to think we might be 2 weeks from peak demand on hospital resources.

I swear, it feels like I have to have "the talk" with my teenagers every other day.  No, you're not going anywhere to meet your buddies, even on your bike, even if you don't go in any stores or restaurants (which are mostly closed anyway).  And yes, I'm sorry your senior year kinda sucks at the end.  You're alive.

Just let them have a quick pep talk with Junior Miller if they're considering violating shelter in home...

[InkaUtexas 25508]

3 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Just let them have a quick pep talk with Junior Miller if they're considering violating shelter in home...

WHERE ARE MY FUCKING BEANS! 

[Dbeasy 14966]

This is as of a few hours ago.  Most agree there will be states that flare later but overall as of now, this seems like a fair assessment of where most states are at.  As the users on this thread know, modeling can change rather quickly.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/updated-covid-19-projections-are-out-the-new-peak-dates-in-each-state.html?origin=BHRE&utm_source=BHRE&utm_medium=email&oly_enc_id=7221B9683990F9B

Peak demand for hospital resources due to COVID-19 is expected this week in the U.S., according to updated projections from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle. 

The model, first released in late March, presents estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 for each state in the U.S. if social distancing measures are maintained through May. Researchers used state-level hospital capacity data, data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from the World Health Organization, and observed COVID-19 utilization from select locations.

When IHME first released its model, the only place where the number of daily deaths had already peaked was Wuhan, China. The data from Wuhan formed the basis for IHME's estimation of the time from implementation of social distancing policies to the peak day of deaths. That estimation is now based on data from Wuhan and seven locations in Spain and Italy where the number of daily deaths appears to be peaking or to have peaked. The model has also been updated to use three different weighting schemes to better approximate the variation in potential policy impact across social distancing mandates. 

Projections for peak demand for resources, namely hospital beds and ventilators, also changed after IHME incorporated new data sources into its model and made changes to its analytical framework. Access more information about the changes here. 

According to the most recent projections, which use data updated April 8, peak demand for hospital resources will occur at the national level on April 11. However, this varies by state. Below is the projected date of peak demand for hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators in each state according to the IHME model. 

April 1

Vermont 

April 2

Washington 

April 4

Louisiana 

April 7

Michigan 

April 8

Colorado 

New York 

Ohio 

April 9

Delaware 

District of Columbia 

April 11

Illinois 

New Jersey 

April 12

Hawaii 

April 13

California 

Pennsylvania 

Wisconsin 

April 14

Idaho 

Indiana 

April 15

North Carolina 

West Virginia 

April 16

Mississippi 

New Hampshire 

April 17

Alaska 

Maine

Maryland

Nevada 

Tennessee 

April 20

Alabama 

Georgia

Kansas

Massachusetts

Montana

Virginia 

April 21

Connecticut 

Florida 

Kentucky 

Missouri 

New Mexico 

North Dakota 

April 22

Arizona 

Oregon 

Texas

April 23

Minnesota

Oklahoma 

April 24

South Carolina 

April 25

Arkansas

Rhode Island 

Utah 

April 26

Nebraska 

April 27

Iowa 

South Dakota 

April 29

Wyoming

 

This is very interesting data. I suspect our government is not sharing the full story of how they see this playing out. Here is my WAG. Sorry, but it’s a fairly negative prediction. Hope I’m completely wrong. Probably am.

 

The govt is under intense pressure to re-open businesses to avoid a Great Depression-like economic situation. So they are pressing hard for a May timeframe. When we get close to that date they will release some recommended guidelines to reduce transmission of the virus. This will create major question marks about several industries, like airlines, cruises, and others.

 

That will cause another market downturn and more layoffs. As we hit the fall, the sports leagues will have to delay, creating further economic pressure. Along the way, the govt will be trying to do everything possible to get treatments, vaccines and anti-body tests in circulation as fast as possible but still won’t be there yet.

 

October to December will be a shit show with people having to go in and out of isolation, with layoffs and economic conditions pretty bad.

 

Finally vaccines hit in January because we can’t afford to delay rollout anymore. The economy will be too broken. The govt will roll the dice with partially tested vaccines. March to May will be pretty bad economically and our debt will have ballooned to $30T.

 

Finally by the May, the country slowly starts to work its way back from the mess.

[SydneyCarton 47874]

13 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Just let them have a quick pep talk with Junior Miller if they're considering violating shelter in home...

What purpose will that serve? “Listen kids, if you violate the shelter in place order you’re going to become a shitty domestic abuser and murderer” seems like a far fetched sell. 

[G650 14104]

24 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And if the cure to COVID involves pounding wine coolers in a field while yelling "Ah LUV this jam!" every time a Luke Bryan tune comes on the radio,

Im ded.

[G650 14104]

25 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

This is as of a few hours ago.  Most agree there will be states that flare later but overall as of now, this seems like a fair assessment of where most states are at.  As the users on this thread know, modeling can change rather quickly.

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/updated-covid-19-projections-are-out-the-new-peak-dates-in-each-state.html?origin=BHRE&utm_source=BHRE&utm_medium=email&oly_enc_id=7221B9683990F9B

Peak demand for hospital resources due to COVID-19 is expected this week in the U.S., according to updated projections from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle. 

The model, first released in late March, presents estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 for each state in the U.S. if social distancing measures are maintained through May. Researchers used state-level hospital capacity data, data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths from the World Health Organization, and observed COVID-19 utilization from select locations.

When IHME first released its model, the only place where the number of daily deaths had already peaked was Wuhan, China. The data from Wuhan formed the basis for IHME's estimation of the time from implementation of social distancing policies to the peak day of deaths. That estimation is now based on data from Wuhan and seven locations in Spain and Italy where the number of daily deaths appears to be peaking or to have peaked. The model has also been updated to use three different weighting schemes to better approximate the variation in potential policy impact across social distancing mandates. 

Projections for peak demand for resources, namely hospital beds and ventilators, also changed after IHME incorporated new data sources into its model and made changes to its analytical framework. Access more information about the changes here. 

According to the most recent projections, which use data updated April 8, peak demand for hospital resources will occur at the national level on April 11. However, this varies by state. Below is the projected date of peak demand for hospital beds, ICU beds and ventilators in each state according to the IHME model. 

April 1
Vermont 

April 2
Washington 

April 4
Louisiana 

April 7
Michigan 

April 8
Colorado 
New York 
Ohio 

April 9
Delaware 
District of Columbia 

April 11
Illinois 
New Jersey 

April 12
Hawaii 

April 13
California 
Pennsylvania 
Wisconsin 

April 14
Idaho 
Indiana 

April 15
North Carolina 
West Virginia 

April 16
Mississippi 
New Hampshire 

April 17
Alaska 
Maine
Maryland
Nevada 
Tennessee 

April 20
Alabama 
Georgia
Kansas
Massachusetts
Montana
Virginia 

April 21
Connecticut 
Florida 
Kentucky 
Missouri 
New Mexico 
North Dakota 

April 22
Arizona 
Oregon 
Texas

April 23
Minnesota
Oklahoma 

April 24
South Carolina 

April 25
Arkansas
Rhode Island 
Utah 

April 26
Nebraska 

April 27
Iowa 
South Dakota 

April 29
Wyoming

Good info. I can pretty categorically tell you though having D.C. and Virginia that far apart peak wise is way the fuck off. NoVA and DC are one entity.

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

What purpose will that serve? “Listen kids, if you violate the shelter in place order you’re going to become a shitty domestic abuser and murderer” seems like a far fetched sell. 

I was thinking more along the lines of ‘if you violate shelter in place orders, you are going to have a hole in your fucking head!!!!1!1!1’

 

[utee94 15745]

I have no idea who Luke Bryan is, and I'm good with that.

 

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

5 minutes ago, G650 said:

Good info. I can pretty categorically tell you though having D.C. and Virginia that far apart peak wise is way the fuck off. NoVA and DC are one entity.

Yes a flaw in this is based on what’s being reported.  We all know garbage in / garbage out. And different states/municipalities are reporting/testing in different ways.   

[NoName 16293]

7 minutes ago, G650 said:

Good info. I can pretty categorically tell you though having D.C. and Virginia that far apart peak wise is way the fuck off. NoVA and DC are one entity.

there are another 60%? of the population that live in the State but aren't located NoVA (IIRC Northern Virginia is only like 40% of the pop?) and that it only makes up like 25% of the landmass of the State...

 

Edited April 9, 2020 by NoName

[G650 14104]

Just now, NoName said:

...it's almost like there are another 60%? of the population that live in the State but aren't located NoVA (IIRC Northern Virginia is only like 40% of the pop?) and that it only makes up like 25% of the landmass of the State...

 

You mean like me?

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

1 hour ago, F250 said:

I understand the reason but they should also bring in all their personnel on base. No one wants a shit ton of unknown infected fucko-s wandering around in their backyard.

 

Hate to break it to you but we’ve been there for a while.

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If people live off-base, its a public health concern if they are ill with a contagious disease. If the military wants to pull all personnel on-base, then they can keep quiet.

I don’t understand this line of thinking. If someone is sick in the military, they get quarantined just like anyone else. Main difference, there are actual consequences for not following the order to stay isolated. The number of people in the community who are infected shouldn’t have any impact on people’s decisions to go out in public right now. Stay the fuck home and if you have to go out, assume everyone, including yourself, is fucking carrying this shit. 

[G650 14104]

3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I have no idea who Luke Bryan is, and I'm good with that.

Blessed are the people who haven't been saddled with the knowledge of the existence of bro country.

[NoName 16293]

1 minute ago, G650 said:

You mean like me?

Sorry I was an asshole in how I first wrote it - didn't mean to. just was saying it is the minority of the state in population and landmass and they are doing it across the board. 

I would actually be curious what % of hospital beds in VA are in NOVA but that requires more work than I am willing to do.

[Loco 3752]

Champagne and strawberries for everyone!

 

[Brisketexan 104596]

Just now, G650 said:

Blessed are the people who haven't been saddled with the knowledge of the existence of bro country.

But how would such people know of the glories of hanging out by the lake at the end of a dirt road, with her in them jeans, drinking beer 'round the fire and singing our favorite jams?  And also, about the glories of hanging out by the lake at the end of a dirt road, with her in them jeans, drinking whiskey  'round the fire and singing our favorite jams?

[workswithseed 2036]

2 minutes ago, G650 said:

Blessed are the people who haven't been saddled with the knowledge of the existence of bro country.

I'd figure it'd die off by now.

[Bevo 13526]

Just now, Loco said:

Champagne and strawberries for everyone!

 

Wait till they try to get the insurance company to pay.

[NoName 16293]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

But how would such people know of the glories of hanging out by the lake at the end of a dirt road, with her in them jeans, drinking beer 'round the fire and singing our favorite jams?  And also, about the glories of hanging out by the lake at the end of a dirt road, with her in them jeans, drinking whiskey  'round the fire and singing our favorite jams?

you forgot banging in a field

https://www.theunticket.com/fun-with-country-music-love-me-in-a-field-10-5-16/

Quote

Let's get tangled in the tassels of some ten foot corn
Tear our t-shirts in the cotton patch behind the barn
Get lost out on the grass bring your blanket in the beach
Tear up some turnip rings or find some up on a hill
Baby love me in a field

Lyrics:

 

Quote

 

"Love Me In A Field"
 

Don't need a hotel or a high rise
A big old bunk bed a fancy name
I don't need a backseat, don't need no rusty truck
We could leave that dust on that old porch swing

Let's get tangled in the tassels of some ten foot corn
Tear our t-shirts in the cotton patch behind the barn
Get lost out on the grass bring your blanket in the beach
Tear up some turnip rings or find some up on a hill
Baby love me in a field

Now we got that California king
In the back of that Georgia double wire
And I'm about to bust out the seams
When I get you to the country side
What's that sound like to you?
Cuz it sounds dang good to me
Just hit me with a smile when you're ready to leave

Let's get tangled in the tassels of some ten foot corn
Tear our t-shirts in the cotton patch behind the barn
Get lost out on the grass bring your blanket in the beach
Tear up some turnip rings or find some up on a hill
Baby love me in a field

Find an old pasture
Where the cows ain't
Been for a while
Wanna see your blue eyes
Where the flowers go wild
Little after midnight
Morning dew
On our skin

I'm sure that nobody, nobody know where we've been.

Let's get tangled in the tassels of some ten foot corn
Tear our t-shirts in the cotton patch behind the barn
Get lost out on the grass bring your blanket in the beach
Tear up some turnip rings or find some up on a hill
Baby love me in a field

 

 

Edited April 9, 2020 by NoName

[Loco 3752]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

But how would such people know of the glories of hanging out by the lake at the end of a dirt road, with her in them jeans, drinking beer 'round the fire and singing our favorite jams?  And also, about the glories of hanging out by the lake at the end of a dirt road, with her in them jeans, drinking whiskey  'round the fire and singing our favorite jams?

Since I am apparently blessed..  I'll get over it.  Girls in tiny bikinis at the sandbar will just have to get me through somehow.

[G650 14104]

Just now, NoName said:

Sorry I was an asshole in how I first wrote it - didn't mean to. just was saying it is the minority of the state in population and landmass and they are doing it across the board. 

I would actually be curious what % of hospital beds in VA are in NOVA but that requires more work than I am willing to do.

Yeah, it's all about density and cross pollination with DC and Montgomery County MD. Other than a cluster in James City Co. and the old folks home in Henrico, NoVA is smoking everyone else. They will peak hand in hand with DC, and that will be Virginia's peak as well. Personally I think the late April call for Va is right, and the DC projection is way off.

 

https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1556211/

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

19 minutes ago, G650 said:

Good info. I can pretty categorically tell you though having D.C. and Virginia that far apart peak wise is way the fuck off. NoVA and DC are one entity.

One very large cesspool.

[F250 28682]

So other than an unending quarantine, what is the longterm strategy for dealing with Covid-19?

The current strategy of lockdown works but it feels like trench warfare, hunker down until the shelling stops and then leave the trench to get mowed down and then return to the trench without ever gaining any ground.

 

[Eskimohorn 5613]

During wildfire season, the approach is to manage the places that fire could catch (trim back your brush, that sort of thing), and when a fire flares up, hit it quickly to keep it from spreading. 

It’s always a good idea to “trim back your brush”

But, seriously, fighting wildfires is an extremely good comparison.

[jimmyjazz 45554]

20 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I have no idea who Luke Bryan is, and I'm good with that.

Count your blessings.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

50 minutes ago, F250 said:

My son is an Air Force cadet and is supposed to attend field training this summer. I believe he is awaiting further instructions on what will happen this summer with regards to training. I expect him to be in my house once he initially returns. I'll just make sure he gets a Silkwood shower before I let him inside the house.

Is he Air Force Academy to ROTC at a university ?

[Brisketexan 104596]

2 minutes ago, F250 said:

So other than an unending quarantine, what is the longterm strategy for dealing with Covid-19?

The current strategy of lockdown works but it feels like trench warfare, hunker down until the shelling stops and then leave the trench to get mowed down and then return to the trench without ever gaining any ground.

 

1 -- it starts with widely available instant result testing.

2 - thus, we are fucked.

[Captainant 27447]

2 minutes ago, F250 said:

So other than an unending quarantine, what is the longterm strategy for dealing with Covid-19?

The current strategy of lockdown works but it feels like trench warfare, hunker down until the shelling stops and then leave the trench to get mowed down and then return to the trench without ever gaining any ground.

Flattening the curve is just buying time to reduce strain on limited hospital resources to buy time for a vaccine to be developed and rolled out. There's not a light at the end of the tunnel until we have herd immunity, which isn't gonna happen until it burns through the population and takes its toll or we get a vaccine out.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

31 minutes ago, G650 said:

Im ded.

At least yell FREEEEBIIIIIRRRRD as you go.

[stork642 4498]

32 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

 

This is very interesting data. I suspect our government is not sharing the full story of how they see this playing out. Here is my WAG. Sorry, but it’s a fairly negative prediction. Hope I’m completely wrong. Probably am.

 

The govt is under intense pressure to re-open businesses to avoid a Great Depression-like economic situation. So they are pressing hard for a May timeframe. When we get close to that date they will release some recommended guidelines to reduce transmission of the virus. This will create major question marks about several industries, like airlines, cruises, and others.

 

That will cause another market downturn and more layoffs. As we hit the fall, the sports leagues will have to delay, creating further economic pressure. Along the way, the govt will be trying to do everything possible to get treatments, vaccines and anti-body tests in circulation as fast as possible but still won’t be there yet.

 

October to December will be a shit show with people having to go in and out of isolation, with layoffs and economic conditions pretty bad.

 

Finally vaccines hit in January because we can’t afford to delay rollout anymore. The economy will be too broken. The govt will roll the dice with partially tested vaccines. March to May will be pretty bad economically and our debt will have ballooned to $30T.

 

Finally by the May, the country slowly starts to work its way back from the mess.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

4 minutes ago, F250 said:

So other than an unending quarantine, what is the longterm strategy for dealing with Covid-19?

The current strategy of lockdown works but it feels like trench warfare, hunker down until the shelling stops and then leave the trench to get mowed down and then return to the trench without ever gaining any ground.

 

[StruggleBus 3922]

Is there any chance things are back to normal in 2020? I see people talking about May, June, July and I don't get it, but I'm also a moron. Won't this virus just keep shitting on us until there is an extremely effective treatment or vaccine developed?

[Anastasis 23394]

5 minutes ago, F250 said:

So other than an unending quarantine, what is the longterm strategy for dealing with Covid-19?

The current strategy of lockdown works but it feels like trench warfare, hunker down until the shelling stops and then leave the trench to get mowed down and then return to the trench without ever gaining any ground.

Vaccine.  See you in 8-12 months man. 

[InkaUtexas 25508]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

Vaccine.  See you in 8-12 months man. 

yeah, but imagine the zoom party we can throw for UT's opening day! Blacklab might need to start planning. 

[Anastasis 23394]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

1 -- it starts with widely available instant result testing.

2 - thus, we are fucked.

This, but I am more optimistic with what we can accomplish with an unfucked testing strategy. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

5 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Flattening the curve is just buying time to reduce strain on limited hospital resources to buy time for a vaccine to be developed and rolled out. There's not a light at the end of the tunnel until we have herd immunity, which isn't gonna happen until it burns through the population and takes its toll or we get a vaccine out.

So flatten curve->gradual open up/herd immunity/lock down on long term, assisted living housing, hospitals etc(require immediate test results for visitors)->????-> vaccine (profit)

[Brisketexan 104596]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

This, but I am more optimistic with what we can accomplish with an unfucked testing strategy. 

I presume that "an unfucked testing strategy" will arrive astride the same unicorn that will be delivering Sela Ward and Hayley Atwell to my quarantine love nest?

 

[Captainant 27447]

1 minute ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

So flatten curve->gradual open up/herd immunity/lock down on long term, assisted living housing, hospitals etc(require immediate test results for visitors)->????-> vaccine (profit)

It's the gradual open up that's gonna be the trick. Right now we've done a pretty good job of putting a pot lid on this grease fire, but it'll flare back up the second there's oxygen. If we "re-open the country" come May, it wouldn't be a shock if we had another surge of cases in the summer

[XYZ 2154]

14 minutes ago, F250 said:

So other than an unending quarantine, what is the longterm strategy for dealing with Covid-19?

The current strategy of lockdown works but it feels like trench warfare, hunker down until the shelling stops and then leave the trench to get mowed down and then return to the trench without ever gaining any ground.

Herd immunity.

[jimmyjazz 45554]

9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Vaccine.  See you in 8-12 months man. 

I would think anti-virals might be available much sooner, but I suppose there's a chance they wouldn't be effective once symptoms appear.  Not my field, though.

If I recall correctly, Tamiflu has decent efficacy against flu if administered within 24 hours of symptom onset, right?

[Deej 76560]

28 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Wait till they try to get the insurance company to pay.

 

[mchookem 16208]

this all makes my thoughts take a very dark turn. as in... if things continue as is 'indefinitely', if you're locked in your house, you can't see friends, family, travel, entertainment, go to the beach or a lake or a park, eventually even online and broadcast entertainment will be exhausted, you can only rewatch the Sopranos so many times....like, eventually...what's the point? 

i know that's extreme. but it's not beyond the realm of possibility. 

i need to get out of my own head 😐

[NoName 16293]

Just now, Deej said:

Wait till they try to get the insurance company to pay.

i assume that is one of the reasons they went public with the numbers...

[smuggs 9342]

26 minutes ago, NoName said:

Let's get tangled in the tassels of some ten foot corn
Tear our t-shirts in the cotton patch behind the barn
Get lost out on the grass bring your blanket in the beach
Tear up some turnip rings or find some up on a hill
Baby love me in a field

Now I have to go call my NAAAEA sponsor. Thanks a lot, asshole.

[utee94 15745]

1 minute ago, NoName said:

i assume that is one of the reasons they went public with the numbers...

Exactly.  They're putting their insurance company on notice.  If that company refuses to pay in the midst of a global pandemic, they'll get put on blast, and never secure another customer again.

 

[MC Fresh Breath 4074]

I think Frenchie is calling us fat.

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-france-confinement/obesity-is-major-covid-19-risk-factor-says-french-chief-epidemiologist-idUSKBN21Q0S7

Quote

 

“This virus is terrible, it can hit young people, in particular obese young people. Those who are overweight really need to be careful,” Delfraissy told franceinfo radio.

“That is why we’re worried about our friends in America, where the problem of obesity is well known and where they will probably have the most problems because of obesity.”

 

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

8 minutes ago, Captainant said:

It's the gradual open up that's gonna be the trick. Right now we've done a pretty good job of putting a pot lid on this grease fire, but it'll flare back up the second there's oxygen. If we "re-open the country" come May, it wouldn't be a shock if we had another surge of cases in the summer

antibody testing hopefully in the not so distant future.

[Skipper 6103]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

I presume that "an unfucked testing strategy" will arrive astride the same unicorn that will be delivering Sela Ward and Hayley Atwell to my quarantine love nest?

 

If we want to stay positive, as of March 13th, the state of Texas had performed a total of 220 tests.   It's over 106,000 as of today.  We still suck but that's a lot of progress in less than a month.  Hoping we can make similar strides by mid-May.

[Eskimohorn 5613]

Herd immunity.

Without a massive testing and antibodies testing, we’ll be in the dark. Most people dont even know for sure if they ever had it. We’ll possibly avoid massive outbreaks, but consumers, employers will not know who’s got immunity and who doesn’t. And they wont know if they got it now.

Which means lack of consumer confidence and employer concern that one employee might get everyone sick. Means stagnated economy and panic after panic.

Without massive testing, there will be no rebound in the economy. If you believe testing cannot ramp up, I guess you just pull the trigger and hope for the best. Because this is not sustainable from an economic standpoint.

[workswithseed 2036]

7 minutes ago, mchookem said:

this all makes my thoughts take a very dark turn. as in... if things continue as is 'indefinitely', if you're locked in your house, you can't see friends, family, travel, entertainment, go to the beach or a lake or a park, eventually even online and broadcast entertainment will be exhausted, you can only rewatch the Sopranos so many times....like, eventually...what's the point? 

i know that's extreme. but it's not beyond the realm of possibility. 

i need to get out of my own head 😐

I think you need to take up a hobby.