Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Nice Guy Eddie 13729]

I’m also unsure what people want when it’s said we need to now (or soon) re-open businesses.  First, many businesses are still open to some extent. I have a few friends who have said that outside of some workplace safety changes, nothing has changed for them. For me, I’m working from home and actually never been busier (most days.)

Second, the demand for some businesses are completely shattered and not coming back soon. Open up restaurants today, and who’s going? The number will be >0 but far from previous demand. We will need some restaurants to fail to lower restaurant supply to let the other succeed  

third, all businesses need to be finding solutions to make their employees and customers feel safe. These will be the winners not just the business owners who are working the numbers to say afloat.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Nice Guy Eddie

[utee94 16081]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I’m also unsure what people want when it’s said we need to now (or soon) re-open businesses.  First, many businesses are still open to some extent. I have a few friends who have said that outside of some workplace safety changes, nothing has changed for them. For me, I’m working from home and actually never been busier (most days.)

Second, the demand for some businesses are completely shattered and not coming back soon. Open up restaurants today, and who’s going? The number will be >0 but far from previous demand. We will need some restaurants to fail to lower restaurant supply to let the other succeed  

third, all businesses need to be finding solutions to make their employees and customers feel safe. These will be the winners not just the business owners who are working the numbers to say afloat.

I think you might be surprised at how many people would be willing to go to bars, restaurants, entertainment-oriented businesses.  A huge chunk of college-age kids and young professionals are still gathering in large groups to this day.  They're not afraid for themselves, and they'd return to going out the moment the government allows it.

Agree on your third point for sure. Managing safety concerns for employees and customers is going to be a major factor in business for years, not just weeks or months.

[jimmyjazz 47158]

10 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

2. Extended sheltering will place the world into a depression deeper than the Great Depression. (Not hyperbole - fact)

Well, maybe not.  The world is a different place than it was in 1929.  A great deal (and maybe the majority) of business is transacted electronically.  We're seeing paradigm shifts in the way people shop and eat.  There is change happening that reflects a more resilient economy than perhaps ever before, although the national debt is terribly concerning.

Unemployment is currently at 13%, and is estimated to peak at 20%.  This is catastrophic for current retail and service businesses, but the truth is they will be replaced for the most part.  It will take some time for those unemployment numbers to drop significantly, though.  Still, unemployment in the Great Depression was 15% - 25% for some 7 years.  I don't think anyone sees this recession/depression lasting nearly that long. 

 

Quote

5. A treatment or vaccine seems to be at least 8-12 months away or more, notwithstanding Britain’s claim this week.

Certainly true for a vaccine.  Is this the thinking for an anti-viral?

 

Quote

So they are currently weighing the risk of remaining closed down vs the risk of seeing re-ignited contagion. The risk of remaining closed down is pretty well certain and known - Depression. As a result, they are going to just roll the dice and pray that contagion is slower and testing continues to increase for the next 8-12 months until the treatment or vaccine is ready.

It's hard to say how severe this first spike will be.  Last I heard, current models are suggesting 60K deaths.  A second spike would indeed be devastating.  Ultimately, though, it seems fairly likely that the scale of the  pandemic this year will indeed be on the order of magnitude of a bad flu season (maybe 2X?  who knows).  After that, I would expect anti-virals and vaccines to do a reasonable job next year and beyond.  Is that unrealistically optimistic?

[Hpara759 1792]

2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I think you might be surprised at how many people would be willing to go to bars, restaurants, entertainment-oriented businesses. 

I won't be surprised......party time!!

[Armybrat 41399]

40 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Since church going is 50% paying attention to who else did and didn’t show up, how much internet church viewing is scanning the participants names? And if the church isn’t showing the names, they’re missing out.

edit: not to mention that I would think the collection plate is much emptier online when no one can see you not contribute. 

About 70% of Mrs. Brat’s Catholic church’s collections are done online, so at least they’ll be able to pay something to the lawyers.

[Hate 20247]

I've got tons of "friends" that I mostly stay in touch with through Facebook or Instagram and they are convinced that this is a government grab of power.  It's ridiculous, but as soon as the bars or restaurant open, they will be there in full force. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13729]

Agree that people will go back to bars and restaurants but these businesses frequently run with low margins any way. A 10-20% drop in business may destroy their ability to cover overhead. Bars and restaurants fail at a high percent normally, so a return to “normal” will  increase that percent.  Which we need.  If bar demand drops by 10%, we need 10% more bars to fail so the remaining 90 can survive.

[G650 14437]

1 hour ago, workswithseed said:

Or go to church

I was hoping that would be the one thing coronavirus kills.

[Prepuce of Doom 21285]

I hope that at least one of you virtual churchers is multitasking with tabbed browsers in order to simultaneously punch the bishop. 

Looking at you, @ERhine

[utee94 16081]

4 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

People, most everyone, continue to completely underestimate the impressively immense level of stupid in this country among the citizens.

Couple that with selfish demand and complete and total lack of understanding anything about science and what you have is... Well 'Murica.

In fairness, the US doesn't own the patent on selfish and stupid, but we do own the the Monopoly on its expression.

I don't see much difference between Americans and the people of most other countries.  There are lot of dummies in the world.

At its core, civilization exists primarily as a mechanism to protect dummies from themselves.  

[Telegraph_it 3379]

53 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I understand the faith in an antibody test, but it is misguided. The positive predictive value of tests in other parts of the world has been poor. Testing negative may not mean that you are negative and testing positive does not mean that you positive. This means that it can give people a false sense of security. This would lead to a rapid spread of disease as people move away from social distancing.

This. I posted some twitter threads discussing this exact deal a few pages back. This visualization does a good job explaining how false positives can be a big issue at scale if only small percentage of population has been exposed:

[workswithseed 2204]

14 minutes ago, G650 said:

I was hoping that would be the one thing coronavirus kills.

I don't think so, it's lived through more than one plague.

[Telegraph_it 3379]

19 minutes ago, G650 said:

I was hoping that would be the one thing coronavirus kills.

I’m afraid you will be disappointed. 

[KYHorn 17614]

32 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Unemployment is currently at 13%, and is estimated to peak at 20%.  This is catastrophic for current retail and service businesses, but the truth is they will be replaced for the most part.  It will take some time for those unemployment numbers to drop significantly, though.  Still, unemployment in the Great Depression was 15% - 25% for some 7 years.  I don't think anyone sees this recession/depression lasting nearly that long. 

I dunno man, many companies are only keeping employees on the payroll for what was understood to be a short time because they are able to take that short term hit, and many others are doing so because of these govt loans. If this becomesa long term thing, employment will certainly increase much more. I think DBeasy is pretty spot on in his breakdown of the problem facing govts and almost certainly they will all decide to do some combo of limited social distancing, widespread testing, and tracing to prevent large outbreaks until more permanent solutions (vaccine/treatment) are found. It seems quite unlikely that we'd continue with this new normal much longer.

Edited April 12, 2020 by KYHorn

[Brisketexan 106889]

Here is my understanding of the current challenge of governments everywhere. Not an easy problem to solve, but governments almost everywhere, and especially in the US, are struggling. I don’t see a very good path to success right now.

1. Sheltering limits spread of this highly contagious and dangerous virus.

2. Extended sheltering will place the world into a depression deeper than the Great Depression. (Not hyperbole - fact)

3. A deep Great Depression will cause as much or more human suffering and possibly deaths as the virus. So they must open up the economy somehow, and pretty soon (1-3 months)

4. With no restrictions other than general social distancing guidelines, the virus will almost assuredly take off again until a treatment or vaccine is confirmed.

5. A treatment or vaccine seems to be at least 8-12 months away or more, notwithstanding Britain’s claim this week.

6. Testing for the virus and antibodies is way too low, has accuracy questions, and even with much more testing the virus is so contagious, and contagious during asymptomatic times, that testing may help some but not enough.

So they are currently weighing the risk of remaining closed down vs the risk of seeing re-ignited contagion. The risk of remaining closed down is pretty well certain and known - Depression. As a result, they are going to just roll the dice and pray that contagion is slower and testing continues to increase for the next 8-12 months until the treatment or vaccine is ready.

I’m pretty much here.
There’s no way out of this. All of our paths lead to “we’re fucked.”
Full protective measures? Brutal economic depression.
Open everything back up? Raging pandemic again.
Something in between? There is no sweet spot. We’ll have at the very least a brutal recession AND lots of sick and dying people.
Vaccine is going to take too long to help.
No way out.
Happy Easter!

[SizzleChest 8314]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I’m pretty much here.
There’s no way out of this. All of our paths lead to “we’re fucked.”
Full protective measures? Brutal economic depression.
Open everything back up? Raging pandemic again.
Something in between? There is no sweet spot. We’ll have at the very least a brutal recession AND lots of sick and dying people.
Vaccine is going to take too long to help.
No way out.
Happy Easter!

You forgot the people that had the virus, and believe immunity precludes them from needing to be vaxxed because anti-vaxxer.

 

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13729]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

I’m pretty much here.
There’s no way out of this. All of our paths lead to “we’re fucked.”
Full protective measures? Brutal economic depression.
Open everything back up? Raging pandemic again.
Something in between? There is no sweet spot. We’ll have at the very least a brutal recession AND lots of sick and dying people.
Vaccine is going to take too long to help.
No way out.
Happy Easter!

And it really sucks for the old and/or immuno-comprised people. Are they really going to be able to avoid covid 19 for the next year waiting for a vaccine that will most likely not be 100% effective. And if you hide from the world for a year, I think that greatly impacts your quality of life which is important.

if you’re 90 and are generally healthy, do you want to spend a year of your remaining life hiding?  That’s better than a painful death but still a poor option. 

[jimmyjazz 47158]

15 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

I dunno man, many companies are only keeping employees on the payroll for what was understood to be a short time because they are able to take that short term hit, and many others are doing so because of these govt loans. If this becomesa long term thing, employment will certainly increase much more.

Sure, but I think that's baked into the 20% estimate for max unemployment.  We could certainly imagine that being optimistic, though.

I think we're all pretty much on board with the need for much more testing.  Without that, I am surely being too optimistic.  (This happens with me, a lot.)

[Dbeasy 15593]

Would the depression be deeper than the 1930’s? I said above that it definitely would be, but perhaps that was reaching too far. It’s more my opinion than fact. But it’s not hyperbole.

The government made huge liquidity mistakes in the 1930’s that it isn’t making now, but unemployment now would be greater than 25% if we continued sheltering for long periods. And we’ve already spent all of the interest rate and tax cut bullets. We are down to just massive influxes of debt, which at some point won’t work for such large levels of unemployment.

[Brisketexan 106889]

And it really sucks for the old and/or immuno-comprised people. Are they really going to be able to avoid covid 19 for the next year waiting for a vaccine that will most likely not be 100% effective. And if you hide from the world for a year, I think that greatly impacts your quality of life which is important.
if you’re 90 and are generally healthy, do you want to spend a year of your remaining life hiding?  That’s better than a painful death but still a poor option. 

My mother is a lung cancer patient - so, super vulnerable. And while she has decent quality of life now, she doesn’t have a lot of time left (a year? Three? We don’t know). And she’s losing that time, just locked away.
This sucks.
And again, there’s no way out.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8983]

I’m pretty much here.
There’s no way out of this. All of our paths lead to “we’re fucked.”
Full protective measures? Brutal economic depression.
Open everything back up? Raging pandemic again.
Something in between? There is no sweet spot. We’ll have at the very least a brutal recession AND lots of sick and dying people.
Vaccine is going to take too long to help.
No way out.
Happy Easter!

Im in the open up gradually camp, starting sometime in May. Recovered cases are soon going to loom large over the deaths. It already does with hardly any states recording recoveries right now.

Eventually the virus is going to burn through most of us anyways and fade out. Adding a depression to this is 100% suicide, and that’s a given. If the hospital models show they aren’t overwhelmed...we can get back on our feet sooner than later while keeping the vulnerable secluded. I hope we can get on site instant tests to visitors and workers of hospitals and long term/assisted living.

[G650 14437]

25 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

I’m afraid you will be disappointed. 

I fully expect to be

[bluto 4996]

Gottleib was on one of the yelling channels a few nights ago and he estimates only 3-5% of the population has/has had it. If that is remotely accurate then keep that in mind for just how much fuel is left for this thing to burn through in regard to herd immunity or the like.

[Bevo 13874]

15 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

You forgot the people that had the virus, and believe immunity precludes them from needing to be vaxxed because anti-vaxxer.

 

 

Well, having the virus will preclude you from needing the vaccine. And at some point, both those infected and those getting a vaccine will probably both need a booster as immunity wanes. 

[InkaUtexas 26869]

3 hours ago, stork642 said:

I guess you can’t grasp or read the title of the thread “you started”   No Politics.  Such a hard thing I know.   

Actually, City/County is allowed good sir. Happy Easter. 

[SizzleChest 8314]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

Well, having the virus will preclude you from needing the vaccine. And at some point, both those infected and those getting a vaccine will probably both need a booster as immunity wanes. 

Sure it will.

[bluto 4996]

Well, having the virus will preclude you from needing the vaccine. And at some point, both those infected and those getting a vaccine will probably both need a booster as immunity wanes. 

Have you gotten your diptet? GOTTA get a diptet!

[InkaUtexas 26869]

3 hours ago, GabrielsHorn said:

Not going to try to CR it up, but Texas wouldn't be the only place in the more developed part of the world that is looking to reopen things incrementally over the next few weeks. Spain,  Norway, Austria, Denmark, and the Czech Republic have all announced some changes or loosening of restrictions for the upcoming weeks. While I agree that this week is more than likely early,  it all depends on what restrictions are being lifted and what is the response to if/when another outbreak occurs which that article doesn't really touch on sans the testing at Walgreens. 

So equate parts of the US to those countries. I am currently working with a Doc in the Czech Republic. He is scared of them opening up. There is little testing and what they do have has come out as junk. Norway went into a hard lock down early. Like good vikings they had their shit together. 

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26847]

What we need is the basics of public health: testing, tracing, and effective quarantines. 
 

oh, and we need it 75 days ago.

We knew, for sure, that this was going to happen, and we didn’t prepare. The emergence of the disease was probably not preventable, but the epidemic in the US and the consequent economic shutdown is a man-made disaster. 

[InkaUtexas 26869]

5 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

@InkaUtexas So, uh, how was the booze last night my man?

Damn good. Kicked ass at Uno and we sampled what we had. Now having a Turkish coffee and wondering what I want to cook today. 

And just trying to keep momentum on the board. I miss sports. 

[closetojumping 65407]

39 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

I don't disagree with your basic premise other than my specific note on expression of stupidity. I mean there is Russia with it's insane videos. But God damn, do you dispute that the US is King of Hold my beer? 

Does this trope have to be trotted out at least every 2 pages? Maybe we can pin something at the top of the thread that lays out the givens:

1) The tests! The tests! We have got to test more!

2) Not to go cloak room but now I’m going cloak room. 

3) America is the dumbest collection of pieces of shit in the history of this planet and I fucking hate so many of us! 

4) Anecdotes about overcrowding and something someone saw at the grocery store. 

A relevant discussion about how things open back up and the trade-offs being involved can then happen without needing “fuck ‘Murica” being peppered in every 8th post. Thanks.

 

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Here is my understanding of the current challenge of governments everywhere. Not an easy problem to solve, but governments almost everywhere, and especially in the US, are struggling. I don’t see a very good path to success right now.

1. Sheltering limits spread of this highly contagious and dangerous virus.

2. Extended sheltering will place the world into a depression deeper than the Great Depression. (Not hyperbole - fact)

3. A deep Great Depression will cause as much or more human suffering and possibly deaths as the virus. So they must open up the economy somehow, and pretty soon (1-3 months)

4. With no restrictions other than general social distancing guidelines, the virus will almost assuredly take off again until a treatment or vaccine is confirmed.

5. A treatment or vaccine seems to be at least 8-12 months away or more, notwithstanding Britain’s claim this week.

6. Testing for the virus and antibodies is way too low, has accuracy questions, and even with much more testing the virus is so contagious, and contagious during asymptomatic times, that testing may help some but not enough.

So they are currently weighing the risk of remaining closed down vs the risk of seeing re-ignited contagion. The risk of remaining closed down is pretty well certain and known - Depression. As a result, they are going to just roll the dice and pray that contagion is slower and testing continues to increase for the next 8-12 months until the treatment or vaccine is ready.


 

On #6, I think SK has shown that ANY widespread testing works if you can get quick results.  At a 20% failure rate on the test, you are effectively getting the magic 80% isolation if you can isolate everyone who is positive with your faulty test.

That's really the only way, non-vaccine, that this can work other than to go back to the UK's original "let it burn through" strategy.  Everyone gets tested repeatedly, isolate the positives for 2 weeks, test the negatives again in X days (don't know on X - is it 5?  7? 10?).  Rinse and repeat.

I don't like this "wait until we get the vaccine" idea as viable.  Even if it's 3 months instead of 12, there's no kind of guarantee it works, there's no guarantee it won't have side effects, there's no guarantee the virus doesn't mutate to the point it is not longer effective, etc. I mean, I know it's a whole different thing with a whole different process (that's supposed to be easier per the immunologists), but we're still waiting on an HIV vaccine going on 3 decades later.  You can't hang the future of civilization on the idea that "this is going to work because it just has to work and we don't have another plan."  This isn't a Marvel movie.

I think the "let it happen, it's God's will" strategy is monstrous and cruel.  This is 2020, not 1348.  But I think that's where we're heading- a controlled slow burn until everyone who was going to get it gets it and either dies or doesn't, trying to do it slow enough that the hospitals don't have to make hard choices.  Then just hope for the best on the vaccine/treatment front next year.

[Dahobbs 18318]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

I understand the faith in an antibody test, but it is misguided. The positive predictive value of tests in other parts of the world has been poor. Testing negative may not mean that you are negative and testing positive does not mean that you positive. This means that it can give people a false sense of security. This would lead to a rapid spread of disease as people move away from social distancing.

Testing does not need to be 100% accurate to be useful. False negatives, while problematic, don't eliminate the value of testing. Look at this way, if each infected person infects three others (R0=3), we only need to detect and isolate two of those three cases in order to prevent exponential growth. Practically speaking, the effect in that scenario is that each infected person only infects one other. The virus continues to propagate, but in a linear fashion and at a manageable level. Thus, even 33% false negatives (meaning 1/3rd of infected individuals are missed by testing), can work. And by combining testing with increased hygiene (e.g., wearing masks) and common sense medical treatment (e.g., isolating those who appear to be clearly infected despite negative testing), we can further decrease the number infected to below 1, (i.e., a less than 100% chance of infecting someone else) and the virus will slowly die off. 

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 It seem unlikely we can soon eliminate covid 19 entirely so the the flattening the curve is meant to spread out the illnesses and unfortunately deaths.  Therefore we need a way to slowly open up businesses and still practice social distances as much as possible. This will keep covid 19 around and be very bad for some but I don’t see another path forward.

If you can keep the spread rate linear, that is an entirely acceptable outcome. The virus becomes manageable on a population wide basis, individual risk is limited because the pool of infected roaming in the population is low, and we buy time for a vaccine or other treatment to become available. 

 

[Bevo 13874]

3 minutes ago, SizzleChest said:

Sure it will.

Please provide your scenario or data that shows I am wrong. Again, having the virus and recovering will keep you from getting sick again from the virus. Thus, if you have recovered from COVID-19, you will not need the vaccine. With that said, at some point both those infected and those getting a vaccine will probably both need a booster vaccination as immunity wanes. 

 

[Dahobbs 18318]

1 minute ago, closetojumping said:

Does this trope have to be trotted out at least every 2 pages? Maybe we can pin something at the top of the thread that lays out the givens:

1) The tests! The tests! We have got to test more!

2) Not to go cloak room but now I’m going cloak room. 

3) America is the dumbest collection of pieces of shit in the history of this planet and I fucking hate so many of us! 

4) Anecdotes about overcrowding and something someone saw at the grocery store. 

A relevant discussion about how things open back up and the trade-offs being involved can then happen without needing “fuck ‘Murica” being peppered in every 8th post. Thanks.

 

What about "5) CTJ being an asshat"?

[GreenspointTexas 9968]

https://news.yahoo.com/research-raises-questions-coronavirus-immunity-121200086.html
 

siap but hope this is just a case of small sample size or other fuckery

 

[closetojumping 65407]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

What about "5) CTJ being an asshat"?

For a guy that confirmed on April 1 that he still expected the US to have 10,000 people dying a day by April 10, you calling anyone an asshat is pretty fucking hilarious. 

But yes, carry on with your daily moving of goalposts and pedantry. 

[UDontKnow 10571]

18 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

So equate parts of the US to those countries. I am currently working with a Doc in the Czech Republic. He is scared of them opening up. There is little testing and what they do have has come out as junk. Norway went into a hard lock down early. Like good vikings they had their shit together. 

 

I guess this makes Sweden the bad vikings.

[UDontKnow 10571]

8 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

https://news.yahoo.com/research-raises-questions-coronavirus-immunity-121200086.html
 

siap but hope this is just a case of small sample size or other fuckery

 

Blanket statement: Do not believe any studies coming out of China. Take the same research question and investigate it in the free world.

[Dahobbs 18318]

2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

For a guy that confirmed on April 1 that he still expected the US to have 10,000 people dying a day by April 10, you calling anyone an asshat is pretty fucking hilarious. 

But yes, carry on with your daily moving of goalposts and pedantry. 

You amuse me little man.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

8 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

https://news.yahoo.com/research-raises-questions-coronavirus-immunity-121200086.html
 

siap but hope this is just a case of small sample size or other fuckery

 

If 8% of the infected get reinfected, that still 92% who don't get sick.  That means spread is a lot harder.

[Bozo_Casanova 26847]

13 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Does this trope have to be trotted out at least every 2 pages? Maybe we can pin something at the top of the thread that lays out the givens:

1) The tests! The tests! We have got to test more!

2) Not to go cloak room but now I’m going cloak room. 

3) America is the dumbest collection of pieces of shit in the history of this planet and I fucking hate so many of us! 

4) Anecdotes about overcrowding and something someone saw at the grocery store. 

A relevant discussion about how things open back up and the trade-offs being involved can then happen without needing “fuck ‘Murica” being peppered in every 8th post. Thanks.

 

I saw Goody Howe without a mask at H-E-B and now I am sore afflict’d.

[SizzleChest 8314]

14 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Please provide your scenario or data that shows I am wrong. Again, having the virus and recovering will keep you from getting sick again from the virus. Thus, if you have recovered from COVID-19, you will not need the vaccine. With that said, at some point both those infected and those getting a vaccine will probably both need a booster vaccination as immunity wanes. 

 

 

2 hours ago, Bevo said:

I understand the faith in an antibody test, but it is misguided. The positive predictive value of tests in other parts of the world has been poor. Testing negative may not mean that you are negative and testing positive does not mean that you positive. This means that it can give people a false sense of security. This would lead to a rapid spread of disease as people move away from social distancing.

👆

[Bevo 13874]

8 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I saw Goody Howe without a mask at H-E-B and now I am sore afflict’d.

Gordie Howe? I think he died in some god-forsaken place about 4 years ago. Could be the Zombie Apocalypse we have been waiting for.

Edited April 12, 2020 by Bevo

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

9 minutes ago, UDontKnow said:

Blanket statement: Do not believe any studies coming out of China. Take the same research question and investigate it in the free world.

I tend to believe the negative coming out of China as at least honest, if possibly incorrect.  It doesn't fit the narrative.

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

2 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Since church going is 50% paying attention to who else did and didn’t show up, how much internet church viewing is scanning the participants names? And if the church isn’t showing the names, they’re missing out.

edit: not to mention that I would think the collection plate is much emptier online when no one can see you not contribute. 

You know how I know you don’t go to church?  Yeah, that’s absurd. 

Every week I go and the collection plate is passed and nobody puts anything in it (not hardly anyway) and at the end of the week they’ve brought in $1,000,000 plus or minus 10% like clockwork. 

It ain’t coming from people throwing 20’s and Hundo’s in the plate so the guy sitting next to you knows how much, or even if you put anything in. 

The vast vast vast majority comes from people setting up online recurring giving, or paying on the internet. Nobody to speak of carries cash, few have checkbooks (and if you do it goes in your envelope and it’s between you and god)  But just like people don’t pay their mortgage payments anymore by writing a check and mailing it in they don’t make their church contributions like that. 

Less than 20% comes from physically passing the plate. To make it seem like money comes in from some manner of social peer pressure or showing off is completely and totally divorced from reality. It’s just not true- at all- in almost all any context in the modern American church. 

The only time I see people putting cash in at church is the benevolence offerings for the poor amongst our congregation that they take up when we do lords supper- somewhere around a half dozen times a year. That’s people tossing 10’s and 20’s or whatever spare change they have in their wallets leaving service, and the take on that is typically less than 5 figure because people don’t do cash. 

We are told when we give to not let the right hand know what the left is doing, and in my 41 years of attending church I’ve never once heard someone say how much they give, or even that they give, nor seen anyone do it in a way to bring attention to themselves. 

Edited April 12, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Hefeweizen 5444]

One downside to the controlled burn approach is it will disproportionately hit the working class.  People who can work remotely will continue to do so, while retail and customer facing  service will be more exposed.  No CR but I see a lot of social tensions coming from this.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

I’m pretty much here.
There’s no way out of this. All of our paths lead to “we’re fucked.”
Full protective measures? Brutal economic depression.
Open everything back up? Raging pandemic again.
Something in between? There is no sweet spot. We’ll have at the very least a brutal recession AND lots of sick and dying people.
Vaccine is going to take too long to help.
No way out.
Happy Easter!

Please get back out on your ledge, and leave all social media devices inside....  pretty please with sugar on top.

[gecko 1104]

I already do my job remotely (between business trips).  The question isn't can I continue to do my job remotely it's whether my firm will decide they can afford to have me doing it.  If the end comes I'll take my package and retire.

[jimmyjazz 47158]

Statistics gurus:  if the false negative rate is 5%, but you test twice and both are negative, are you 99.75% sure you're negative?  (1 - (.05)*(.05))