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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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dcar00

dcar00 14023

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, MC Fresh Breath said:

So, I read a brief story about a grocery worker who died from this at age 27.  Sadly, there is also the story of a sailor from the USS Theodore Roosevelt dying.  I don't know, but would take a guess the sailor is young and in good shape.  Knock on wood, but of all the NBA players who were in the news a while back seem to have survived so far. The sailor seemed to go from being monitored twice a day to "unresponsive."  That's fast. 

Just strange to me, the utter randomness of thing.  All the recent deaths I read about in Oregon where folks in their 90's.

 

I wonder if the vaping might have some relationship to younger folks who are having issues.

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
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Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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VABuckeye

VABuckeye 2472

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I'm a numbers guy.  I look for patterns.  The Italy, Spain and France numbers continue to be encouraging.  They all appear to be past the hump.  The UK, on the other hand is still struggling.  The couple of weeks where they decided to go all in on herd mentality appears to be biting them in the ass.  They aren't improving and now have a cfr of 12.78%.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Hate said:

I mentioned this a few days ago.  I had a conversation through FB with some friends that feel this exact way.  As far as I know, they aren't anti-vaccers, but they are anti-whatever the government will suggest as far as this virus goes.  It's ridiculous. 

I don't think it's ridiculous to harbor some of those feelings to be honest.  I'm definitely not in a tranche that thinks this is some anti-Trump conspiracy or things of that nature, so let's get that shit out of the way.  But at some point, questioning 50 additional layers of surveillance, carrying around "Covid Free" cards/phone records, and other shit is 10000% oppressive.  If that's the liberty we want, then I'll be happy to get this shit and die.  Fuck living in that kind of a world.  

 

I said it before in an off-handed comment, but wait for a year or two when our general population can't fight off a common cold/flu/other normal occurrences because we've destroyed our bodies' ability to develop antibodies to any type of virus or bacteria.  Way to fucking go World Population.  We'll kill ourselves off out of fear.  

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 14953

Posted
Posted
I don't disagree with what you are saying, but I also think there are a lot of people that would be at a bar or restaurant tonight if the SIP was lifted today at 5 pm. 
Since there is nothing else to do really, I will predict the "opening" to go something like this:
1.  gloves and masks are going to be required by servers and bartenders and be optional for patrons.  Restaurants and bars will only be allowed to have 50% occupancy.
2.  employees go back to work but must wear gloves and masks.  There may also be a system in place to check temperatures daily to ensure anyone with a fever does not come into the building. 
3. large gatherings will be prevented through the fall.  Games might be played and televised (I'm not sure this can realistically happen), but fans will not be allowed to go to the games. 
4.  handshakes are no longer the accepted greeting.  I don't think the US will adopt the bow, but some other form of greeting will become the custom.


Greetings are no longer a problem at all. I’ve already rotated to this:
95b29de90c84d18aa1f04bbd8b0039fa.gif
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stork642

stork642 4498

Posted
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

While they're at it they should make people with STDs wear an STD on their forehead. It would make dating easier. 

I though that notifier was usually located on or around the lips.  

Edited by stork642
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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8799

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Posted
Updated my spreadsheet from last week which projected ~21,000 cases by yesterday's end. We came in right about 22,000 (they had gone back a revised a few days upward on Worldometer). It's now projecting a smidgen over 31,000 total US deaths by the end of Friday for what it's worth using a CFR of about 5.5 percent so far.

I wonder where the 8-10k cases will come from if we think NY has peaked
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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 14867

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I think the need for more testing is asymptomatic carriers. You would hope that anyone who doesn't feel well will go get tested or self isolate. Assuming people followed that golden rule, what about the asymptomatic carriers who go around spreading it. They don't feel sick so how would they know to get tested? I think the "get tested" mantra should be extended to anyone who feels sick, or has been in contact with anyone who has said they were sick. But none of that is going to happen soo....
I think we will do a soft open and hope shit doesn't spiral out of control. 


I don’t think it’s totally established that asymptomatic carriers shed the virus. They might not be as big a threat as once thought.
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Buzzrock

Buzzrock 14867

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I assume that schools are just going to push every kid to the next grade? Then in the Fall, let each teacher run a modified lesson plan to repeat the last few months of the previous grade and then quickly go through the next year.


My 4th and 8th graders are doing a fair amount of work, taking tests, etc.
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bolverk

bolverk 29359

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Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:


I wonder where the 8-10k cases will come from if we think NY has peaked

The spreadsheet I work from assigns the current-to-date CFR and applies it on the cases from the previous five days. In other words, the cake is already baked for the next five days since there's a lag between a reported confirmed case and a subsequent death. I made a guesstimate of five days and it's fallen within a range with reported deaths.

  Cases/Day Deaths/ Day Deaths 5-day lag
3/6 98    
3/7 116    
3/8 106    
3/9 163    
3/10 290    
3/11 307 8 5
3/12 329 3 6
3/13 553 7 6
3/14 587 9 9
3/15 843 12 16
3/16 983 18 17
3/17 1,748 23 18
3/18 2,853 40 30
3/19 4,582 56 32
3/20 5,588 49 46
3/21 4,825 46 54
3/22 9,400 113 96
3/23 10,189 141 157
3/24 11,075 225 252
3/25 13,355 247 307
3/26 17,244 268 265
3/27 18,691 400 517
3/28 19,452 525 560
3/29 19,913 363 609
3/30 20,297 558 734
3/31 24,742 912 948
4/1 26,473 1,049 1,027
4/2 29,874 974 1,069
4/3 32,284 1,045 1,094
4/4 34,196 1,330 1,115
4/5 25,400 1,165 1,360
4/6 31,240 1,255 1,455
4/7 33,502 1,973 1,642
4/8 31,997 1,943 1,774
4/9 33,606 1,901 1,879
4/10 33,752 2,035 1,396
4/11 30,003 1,830 1,717
4/12 27,421 1,528 1,841
4/13     1,758
4/14     1,847
4/15     1,855
4/16     1,649
4/17     1,507

The red projections at the bottom of the right-hand column reflect the red figures in the reported cases by applying a to-date CFR of about 5.5 percent.

 

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gmr548

gmr548 16463

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Posted



I fail to see why, with appropriate guidelines, restrictions, and tracking/treating of new infections, we can't take an approach in the not too distant future to opening up more of the economy. Nonetheless, it's clear others don't see it that way and it would be productive to understand how the thinking on testing is tying into that. 


To the former, I don't necessarialy disagree. It's a discussion that obviously has to be had. Without CRing, nothing I've seen tells me any of the qualifiers you mentioned will be executed to the level they need to be in order to work. So in general, because I don't think that's realistic, I am pretty conservative on the timeline because it effectively increases margin for error.

As for testing: On the one hand, you're right - 10 percent of those with a generally higher likelihood have tested positive. You The false negative rate is reported to be 20-30 percent, but let's assume the test is perfect .130k tests isn't a lot of the state but it's enough to get a good sample. You can reasonably say covid isn't terribly widespread in Texas at the moment.

Let's cut that 10 percent rate by 100. If 0.1 percent of the state is infected, that's 29,000 cases. Maybe half are ongoing. Something in the ballpark of 10-15k statewide. Most of those are going to be located in your big four metro areas. Many mild/asymptomatic. A lot of the state? No. But that's a starting point from which things can escalate really quickly in terms of spread and hospital capacity.

Obviously that's just a spittballed example, but the point is that whenever restrictions are loosened, we aren't starting from zero. Despite the much smaller proportion of the population tested, Texas isn't far behind Ohio or California, two of the states who have been most aggressive with their responses, in terms of confirmed cases per capita. Both states also test more per capita. We know there's an undercount here, just not to what degree. As you mentioned, tracking infections is crucial to keeping this under control once we try to resume public life, and I'd like to see Texas show it can be better than last, or "last if not for our inbred neighbors to the north," or whatever slot at the bottom of the barrel the state occupies on this given day, on a per capita basis before we get rolling on sending people back out.


That’s an interesting perspective. On the one hand, your impression of American suburbia does not seem positive. (“And American suburbia is the most antisocial form of living.”) On the other, at least some of what you dislike about it turns out to be, in the context of this crisis, helpful.


Yes and no.

No, I don't have a positive view of land use/ housing policy that's led to suburbia. Shitty land use is probably the single issue that you can directly link to most socioeconomic, public health, and environmental issues in this country. That's beside the point though.

It's documented that suburban life is less social than dense urban or rural life. That's kind of the point of it - your own individual/family bubble. So that's not my bias. My point was that someone living in the suburbs, which is where most of the people qualified as "city folk" actually live, isn't "living on top" of their neighbors and likely doesn't have an appreciably larger circle of daily human contact than someone living in a small town. Though I suppose there's some added risk in the bigger/more crowded HEB, Target, etc. It's not like small town supermarkets aren't busy though.

Whether suburban design proves to be a sort of defense mechanism is/was something I was curious about with Texas vs a place like Europe or China. It's easy to look at NYC, but you also have bad outbreaks in Louisiana and Florida, both of which are in the same sprawling sun belt mold. So it's too early to say on that one.
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gmr548

gmr548 16463

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Posted
If we have millions of idiots in the hinter lands multiply that in cities.  Statistics how do they work.

There are absolutely millions of morons across rural America. There are absolutely millions of morons in America's cities. I'm a strong believer in both statements.
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Sbbruin

Sbbruin 21697

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


There are absolutely millions of morons across rural America. There are absolutely millions of morons in America's cities. I'm a strong believer in both statements.

spacer.png

Edited by Sbbruin
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Js1

Js1 85056

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Posted
2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


There are absolutely millions of morons across rural America. There are absolutely millions of morons in America's cities. I'm a strong believer in both statements.

This. There’s moron UT grads and moron aggy grads. Morons everywhere. 

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Deej

Deej 76510

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58 minutes ago, Modessit said:


 

 


Well, it IS the Navy. They're the most likely to have out of shape members as they need to be able to float if they fall overboard. But seriously, when I was in if I ever saw someone who was kind of chubby but was in the military it was automatically assumed that they were in the Navy. And it always seemed they smoked more than the other branches. Of course, this was 30 years ago.

Plus you can be a "sailor" and be in your 40's.

 

 

5cf.jpg

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Viper

Viper 12011

Posted
Posted

 

1 hour ago, Hate said:

No offense and I hope it works out for you and the entire industry, but I can't imagine a worse place to be than an airplane right now.

 

1 hour ago, Loco said:

cruise ship?

If I'm going to get sick, I'd rather have the free food and drinks on a cruise ship.

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Hate

Hate 20102

Posted
Posted

Whether suburban design proves to be a sort of defense mechanism is/was something I was curious about with Texas vs a place like Europe or China. It's easy to look at NYC, but you also have bad outbreaks in Louisiana and Florida, both of which are in the same sprawling sun belt mold. So it's too early to say on that one.


Can’t Florida and Nola be explained with Spring Break and Mardi Gras?
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G650

G650 13989

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Drew said:

Only like 2 sentences, in that entire post, have been said by me at any time.  The rest of it is new. 

But sure, be a dick about it.

I'm not gonna pull a ctj and scan this thread for every example, I dont have the time for one thing, along with not being psychotic, but you've repeated the essence of that post like 5 times at least. We get it.

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bolverk

bolverk 29359

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Hate said:

 


Can’t Florida and Nola be explained with Spring Break and Mardi Gras?

 

That's kind of the point of not having mass gatherings. Check out a case map that shows rural, southern Georgia. I believe there was a funeral earlier that attendees have spread the virus throughout the region, making it one of the worst hotspots in the nation.

https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

Edit: Development patterns won't matter if people don't abide by social distancing.

Edited by bolverk
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F250

F250 28659

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, RayDog said:

The latest Peak Prosperity video has a good summary of the T cell paper. It turns out that covid can bind with the same receptor on red blood cells as malaria.

 

That last part about lingering effects after recovery does not sound good. Shit, everytime I read about C-19 it sounds worse.

It's like an Evil Billy Mays "But wait, there's more... in addition to being highly contagious and having a long period of sickness, it will keep fucking you up even if you do recover."

 

 

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Bama Chick

Bama Chick 28596

Posted
Posted
That's kind of the point of not having mass gatherings. Check out a case map that shows rural, southern Georgia. I believe there was a funeral earlier that attendees have spread the virus throughout the region, making it one of the worst hotspots in the nation.
https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report
Edit: Development patterns won't matter if people don't abide by social distancing.


Same thing happened here in Auburn (Lee County).

One funeral with family from - wait for it - Louisiana and Florida.
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F250

F250 28659

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

9 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

 


Same thing happened here in Auburn (Lee County).

One funeral with family from - wait for it - Louisiana and Florida.

SEC! SEC! SEC!

spacer.png

 

For the record I do not recognize College Station as a part of Texas nor a good portion of East Texas. Fuck aggy for even having to clarify this statement.

Edited by F250
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, gmr548 said:


There are absolutely millions of morons across rural America. There are absolutely millions of morons in America's cities. I'm a strong believer in both statements.

Yep, I’d bet there’s a similar “rate of idiocy” in rural/suburban/urban America.
 

suburban parents and River Oaks/Preston Hollow parents just won’t admit that they may have idiot kids.  They’re there  

Edited by Trey3216
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Liquor and Poker

Liquor and Poker 3659

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Posted
30 minutes ago, RayDog said:

The latest Peak Prosperity video has a good summary of the T cell paper. It turns out that covid can bind with the same receptor on red blood cells as malaria.

 

So does that mean as an A+ blood type I should have worried more about malaria all this time and never knew it?

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dcar00

dcar00 14023

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Posted
2 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

I think the need for more testing is asymptomatic carriers. You would hope that anyone who doesn't feel well will go get tested or self isolate. Assuming people followed that golden rule, what about the asymptomatic carriers who go around spreading it. They don't feel sick so how would they know to get tested? I think the "get tested" mantra should be extended to anyone who feels sick, or has been in contact with anyone who has said they were sick. But none of that is going to happen soo....

I think we will do a soft open and hope shit doesn't spiral out of control. 

So an invite only thing with a few friends and business associates, key dishes/drinks on the menu, and our best bar/waitstaff to get the kinks out?

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WBT

WBT 20397

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

I might be able to find a few friends schooled in the world of diction to show you the difference between asymptomatic and asymptotic 

You're got this close to making a good point but you never quite got there.

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