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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15078

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The governments will slowly open up everything over the coming months. It will be up to each individual to decide how they want to respond to the situation. I see the following groups and results:

1. Under 50 Lucky Crowd - they will do things and survive a Coronavirus infection if they get it. This will be a very large group, obviously.

2. Under 50 Unlucky Crowd - they will do things but unfortunately die when they get Coronavirus. This will be a small group but with 200 million of these folks running around before vaccines are available, the number could be significantly large. Should look at current death rates under 50 for some perspective.

3. Over 50 Shelter In Place Crowd - this group will continue to minimize activities until next spring when a vaccine is available. A small number of these will still die as a result of coming into contact with under 50 people or having to get out for something and running into folks. Let’s say 50 million do it and some small percent die.

4. Over 50 Go Out Crowd - this group will see some serious issues. If you assume 50 million fall into this group, the numbers could get significant. They will most assuredly run into Coronavirus and some portion will die, in line with the current rates.

Bottom line is that if you are over 50, do you want to roll the dice on your life or just wait this out until Jan-Mar when hopeful a vaccine arrives.

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JBJ

JBJ 3664

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Belated update for 4/14:

So what ended up needing tweaking were the functions controlling the progressions from infection to recovery/fatality.  From a practical standpoint, I'm not sure if that was the correct thing to change, but it ended up making the best fit to the data we have.  I was using a median of about 17 days from symptom onset to death with a spread of 4-32 days.  This was based off a handful of ILI/pneumonia studies.  Now it's a median of 11 days and the spread is only 8-14 days.  Not sure if that's as realistic as before, but I'm just trying to go where the data points for now.

5S3m92C8vbE5r2k2pqXIWYA0SNta-ep_Q1HLSFB9

Large chart on right:  The adjusted baseline, Goal Scenario, and a data-responsive tracking version.   

Top-left: Same, blown up to a 4-week period and set to a standard scale.  Note the scale is in thousands (25 = 25,000 new cases).

Bottom-left: The rate this thing is spreading in 10-day, 5-day, and daily trends (blue).  These trends are the only remnant from the old-model.  I said I was going to keep them, but I might switch - undecided.  I like using these because they are roughly equivalent to the exponential growth of cases reported, so kind of intuitive in that sense.  They don't appear to be sacrificing much accuracy for now.   The Goal Scenario is based on these values being ~0.10, so looking good if not too good.

Red is the IFR used by the model.  ***Lot's of arbitrary assumptions go into the value shown and it could be off by several factors when this all said and done. The trend is what is more important here.***

So we are tracking downward currently - is it sustainable?  I don't know, but I don't think so.  I don't know if it is desirable either.  The goal scenario allows for the majority of people who will eventually get this anyway to be through it by July.  The tracking scenario is leaves 98% of the susceptible population still susceptible through the fall, and I worry about dealing with this in multiple strung-out waves rather than just churning through it over the rest of spring and summer (albeit at a level acceptable to healthcare facilities).

 

Friday's projection: 744,221 total cases, 26,521 daily cases, 29,485 total deaths

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Hpara759

Hpara759 1780

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1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:



Bottom line is that if you are over 50, do you want to roll the dice on your life or just wait this out until Jan-Mar when hopeful a vaccine arrives.
 

some of us (over 50) are "essential"......and have been "rolling the dice" from the start of this shit. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62784

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On 4/1/2020 at 12:03 PM, closetojumping said:

I am excited by the head on collision coming for the faction here that looks at the raw numbers on a spreadsheet and makes broad, sweeping statements about their certitude that "this is the math and we're all fucked" with, well, me and a few others who continue to take the position that removing vast numbers of variables from the hypothetical equation will make all of the massive death predictions look as stupid as ever. It isn't a case of the deaths not potentially occurring in mass numbers. That's agreed upon. It's the position of one side of this that the real world is irrelevant against the power of the raw calculations. 

It should be fun. 

 

1 hour ago, stork642 said:

I don’t care who gets to claim victory as long as there are fewer deaths.  Oh, I almost forgot...Fuck China!

 

4 hours ago, Viper said:

The best part will be the fewer deaths, the worst part will be @closetojumping taking several victory laps. 

I don't "trust" the math beyond the fact that I "trust" its basic predictive ability in the short term is as good as any conjecture you can offer up to the contrary.  You believe efforts to date will manifest in literally days, and I say I don't see any evidence of that, and to assume such a thing will happen is optimistic at best.

My number is 50,000 American deaths by April 15th. Which is why I hope to God that roughly 26,400 people die from corona in the United States today so that my asinine positioning on what will happen by April 15 comes in correct. I will happily tip my cap to you if you are right.

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dcar00

dcar00 14339

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11 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

 

I don't "trust" the math beyond the fact that I "trust" its basic predictive ability in the short term is as good as any conjecture you can offer up to the contrary.  You believe efforts to date will manifest in literally days, and I say I don't see any evidence of that, and to assume such a thing will happen is optimistic at best.

My number is 50,000 American deaths by April 15th. Which is why I hope to God that roughly 26,400 people die from corona in the United States today so that my asinine positioning on what will happen by April 15 comes in correct. I will happily tip my cap to you if you are right.

all the way from Galveston...

Winston Churchill giving the victory sign posters & prints by ...

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stork642

stork642 4498

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17 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

 

I don't "trust" the math beyond the fact that I "trust" its basic predictive ability in the short term is as good as any conjecture you can offer up to the contrary.  You believe efforts to date will manifest in literally days, and I say I don't see any evidence of that, and to assume such a thing will happen is optimistic at best.

My number is 50,000 American deaths by April 15th. Which is why I hope to God that roughly 26,400 people die from corona in the United States today so that my asinine positioning on what will happen by April 15 comes in correct. I will happily tip my cap to you if you are right.

FutureManned?

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89776

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Seems like given the lack of reliable data on infections and deaths, the best approach to reopening would be to use hospitalization rate as the measure.  Any county where the hospitalization rate is increasing should be on lock down.  Any county with stable or decreasing rates should be opened up after Memorial Day.  Supplement that with nationwide guidance on large gatherings, wearing masks, extra caution for elderly/compromised, and it will probably be fine.  I also think severely limiting international flights (with mandatory pre-boarding temperature checks) would be good.

We need antibody testing everywhere.  It’s insane to me that it isn’t a higher priority.

We need that testing, but it’s got to be paid for somehow, and there’s a lot of people that need to be at the front of the line for testing (and who shouldn’t have to pay for it), before any Joe Schmoe can walk up and be tested.    I’m planning on getting the testing soon, and I’m more than happy to pay for it, but not everybody is willing to shell out the money.  

Hospitalization rates would be great, but there’s a problem.  
https://www.kxan.com/investigations/central-texas-hospitals-and-officials-not-releasing-covid-19-suspected-case-counts-and-why-that-matters/

Quote

In addition, KXAN reached out to the three major local hospital systems: St. David’s HealthCare, Baylor Scott & White Health and Ascension and requested hospital admittance data for COVID-19 related patients. All responded saying they cannot provide the information.

That article was a week ago, but it would be good information to have if they plan on easing things on May 8.   

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Snake Diggity

Snake Diggity 4627

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3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We need that testing, but it’s got to be paid for somehow, and there’s a lot of people that need to be at the front of the line for testing (and who shouldn’t have to pay for it), before any Joe Schmoe can walk up and be tested.    I’m planning on getting the testing soon, and I’m more than happy to pay for it, but not everybody is willing to shell out the money.  

Hospitalization rates would be great, but there’s a problem.  
https://www.kxan.com/investigations/central-texas-hospitals-and-officials-not-releasing-covid-19-suspected-case-counts-and-why-that-matters/

That article was a week ago, but it would be good information to have if they plan on easing things on May 8.   

Hospitalization rate doesn’t have to be limited to COVID related cases to be an effective measure by which to make decisions.  At this point it’s safe to assume that the trajectory of hospitalization in an area (regardless of why) reflects the rate of COVID infection.

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Armybrat

Armybrat 40868

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1 hour ago, RDCanecutter said:

Splain Loocy.

After a friend graduated in ‘66 and went on to grad school but didn’t care to go to any athletic events, I paid for his student Blanket Tax fee and had my photo made for it in his stead. I wanted to go to the ‘69 season home  & OU games. Still have it in my memorabilia case.

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ABSR

ABSR 5321

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53 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

The governments will slowly open up everything over the coming months. It will be up to each individual to decide how they want to respond to the situation. I see the following groups and results:

1. Under 50 Lucky Crowd - they will do things and survive a Coronavirus infection if they get it. This will be a very large group, obviously.

2. Under 50 Unlucky Crowd - they will do things but unfortunately die when they get Coronavirus. This will be a small group but with 200 million of these folks running around before vaccines are available, the number could be significantly large. Should look at current death rates under 50 for some perspective.

3. Over 50 Shelter In Place Crowd - this group will continue to minimize activities until next spring when a vaccine is available. A small number of these will still die as a result of coming into contact with under 50 people or having to get out for something and running into folks. Let’s say 50 million do it and some small percent die.

4. Over 50 Go Out Crowd - this group will see some serious issues. If you assume 50 million fall into this group, the numbers could get significant. They will most assuredly run into Coronavirus and some portion will die, in line with the current rates.

Bottom line is that if you are over 50, do you want to roll the dice on your life or just wait this out until Jan-Mar when hopeful a vaccine arrives.
 

So I am 50.  What about me Dbeasy...what about me!!

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2728

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45 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

 

I don't "trust" the math beyond the fact that I "trust" its basic predictive ability in the short term is as good as any conjecture you can offer up to the contrary.  You believe efforts to date will manifest in literally days, and I say I don't see any evidence of that, and to assume such a thing will happen is optimistic at best.

My number is 50,000 American deaths by April 15th. Which is why I hope to God that roughly 26,400 people die from corona in the United States today so that my asinine positioning on what will happen by April 15 comes in correct. I will happily tip my cap to you if you are right.

CTJ reminding everyone about predictions is actually very healthy for readers of this thread.  How else are people going to determine what posters opinions they should weigh a little heavier and which ones they should discount.  There are a few posters whose reputations have been shattered, at least in my mind, as rationale/calm thinkers both in this thread and on other surly threads.

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G650

G650 14273

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9 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

There are a few posters whose reputations have been shattered, at least in my mind, as rationale/calm thinkers both in this thread and on other surly threads.

I sincerely hope you didn't consider Greenspoint a rational(e) or calm thinker before this.

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hayden_horn

hayden_horn 11365

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3 minutes ago, G650 said:

I sincerely hope you didn't consider Greenspoint a rational(e) or calm thinker before this.

 

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

Everyone knew he was an insufferable prick. I’m not sure anyone knew he had several mental illnesses coupled with a Niagara Falls level vagina. 

greenspoint has always been our branding iron 13-0 equivalent. it is known, from every time he has posted "ballgame" on a game thread and been wrong.

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Bevo

Bevo 13595

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Posted
2 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

 

 

greenspoint has always been our branding iron 13-0 equivalent. it is known, from every time he has posted "ballgame" on a game thread and been wrong.

Well, they were ballgames. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62784

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In actual news, New Jersey and Louisiana landed on Tuesday with their usual nuclear bombs of numbers. NJ with 362, their highest day ever. LA followed suit with 129. Looking like we'll clear 2000 for the day, albeit a good chunk of it will be catch-up from some undercounting FR-MON which appears to happen in certain states every week. 

Meanwhile, Texas eased it's infected/tested rate back to just under 10%, the first downward press on the ratio in more than a week. Florida's been doing the same for a few days. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48149

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5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Also, I heard Abbott announced some semblance of a return to the world plan this morning, but haven't seen anyone mention it here. Anything material? Anyone with a reaction?

I haven’t seen shit. But Harris county will now test anyone who wants a test, no doctors note, just cash and/or some insurance coverage. Call for an apt. It will take awhile but it will be curious to see how this changes the numbers over the next couple weeks. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62784

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2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I haven’t seen shit. But Harris county will now test anyone who wants a test, no doctors note, just cash and/or some insurance coverage. Call for an apt. It will take awhile but it will be curious to see how this changes the numbers over the next couple weeks. 

Infection or antibody? Antibody, I understand. Infection seems pointless unless you're in healthcare, showing signs of illness, or a hypochondriac. So yeah, you and Greenspoint should probably sprint out and go get tested together.

I guess I don't get how a negative test changes anything. One can still get immediately infected with their next interaction in public.

"Well, I was negative ..."

"No shit? So was everyone else at one point."

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UT_OB1

UT_OB1 2224

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Lots of hypochondriacs. 
 

Jersey coming hot in fucking up everyone’s shit up. However, as mentioned, that’s why these numbers should be looked at on a 2-4 day rolling average. 
 

Ive heard rumors of Galveston relaxing a little soon. They need to reopen the damn beaches with restrictions. Even before the virus, there are very few weekends when our beaches look like the pictures that come out of Florida’s or Padre. Just like the parks, they are good for mental health, and they could be opened in a smart responsible way. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48149

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2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Infection or antibody? Antibody, I understand. Infection seems pointless unless you're in healthcare, showing signs of illness, or a hypochondriac. So yeah, you and Greenspoint should probably sprint out and go get tested together.

I guess I don't get how a negative test changes anything. One can still get immediately infected with their next interaction in public.

"Well, I was negative ..."

"No shit? So was everyone else at one point."

Infection only. Which, regardless of your opinion, it is a big deal to many people still. Governor Cuomo had his daily press conference, and he still views the infection test the more important of the two tests in regards to opening back up the economy of NY, and he was very clear on that front. I agree with your general thinking, but in terms of opening up the economy and being able to isolate clusters of folks moving onward is still a step forward compared to "If you've traveled to China or Italy in the last month, are showing symptoms, licked some toilet seats and ask really really nicely you can get a test" requisites as of like a week ago. 

 

 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17646

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4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Infection only. Which, regardless of your opinion, it is a big deal to many people still. Governor Cuomo had his daily press conference, and he still views the infection test the more important of the two tests in regards to opening back up the economy of NY, and he was very clear on that front. I agree with your general thinking, but in terms of opening up the economy and being able to isolate clusters of folks moving onward is still a step forward compared to "If you've traveled to China or Italy in the last month, are showing symptoms, licked some toilet seats and ask really really nicely you can get a test" requisites as of like a week ago. 

 

 

Both are important. Anti-body tests can let us actually determine the percentage of population that has already been infected. But a current infection test is still important to help us rapidly identify and isolate new cases. The latter really is the best way to open back up while keeping both the individual and societal risk level low. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48149

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Both are important. Anti-body tests can let us actually determine the percentage of population that has already been infected. But a current infection test is still important to help us rapidly identify and isolate new cases. The latter really is the best way to open back up while keeping both the individual and societal risk level low. 

c75b35ab1814701a-you-don-t-say-gif-tumbl

 

 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17646

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13 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Infection or antibody? Antibody, I understand. Infection seems pointless unless you're in healthcare, showing signs of illness, or a hypochondriac. So yeah, you and Greenspoint should probably sprint out and go get tested together.

I guess I don't get how a negative test changes anything. One can still get immediately infected with their next interaction in public.

"Well, I was negative ..."

"No shit? So was everyone else at one point."

Negative tests aren't important. Positive tests are. If the infected people are identified, they can be isolated and prevented from infecting others. If we do it properly we can slow or even halt the spread. 

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closetojumping

closetojumping 62784

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Posted
8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Infection only. Which, regardless of your opinion, it is a big deal to many people still. Governor Cuomo had his daily press conference, and he still views the infection test the more important of the two tests in regards to opening back up the economy of NY, and he was very clear on that front. I agree with your general thinking, but in terms of opening up the economy and being able to isolate clusters of folks moving onward is still a step forward compared to "If you've traveled to China or Italy in the last month, are showing symptoms, licked some toilet seats and ask really really nicely you can get a test" requisites as of like a week ago. 

 

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Both are important. Anti-body tests can let us actually determine the percentage of population that has already been infected. But a current infection test is still important to help us rapidly identify and isolate new cases. The latter really is the best way to open back up while keeping both the individual and societal risk level low. 

I don't think it's unreasonable or irresponsible to view handling things in low-infection places like Texas differently than in NYC or the tri-state + MI + LA. The bottom line is that there's no reason to believe that Texas has anywhere close to 10% of the total population infected right now. No markers indicate that in any form.

So sure, isolate when you have symptoms, get tested, let everyone you know that you've been around that you got it, and ride it out and hope they do too. Keep the social distancing. Forbid the large gatherings. Keep school closed. But feeling like everyone should be getting tested in a place that isn't a hot spot seems pointless. Let people do it if they want, but even that creates some sort of bizarre sense of security that is dangerous. Like I said, "not infected" means nothing when facing your next new interaction unless you've had a confirmed positive antibody test along with it. 

Obviously, with 40+% of tests showing positive in the tri-state, they should be testing everyone they can and anyone living there should be assuming they've got it or had it and get the tests as soon as possible.

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