Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[SydneyCarton 47809]

15 minutes ago, Shaddie said:

The issue with antibody test is amount of antibodies in blood. Nobody has determined amount to be safe from re-infection 

I’ll take a starter kit versus a blank slate any day of the fucking week. Especially considering 80% of infections aren’t potentially fatal. Just show me that my body can make an antibody period. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Just now, Message Board User said:

 

Awwwwww, they're thinking about us .... that's nice, getting a bit dusty up on the sofa here.

[atomheartbevo 89362]

2 hours ago, gmr548 said:

SIAP: Travis County expecting gatherings over the weekend will lead to a spike in cases in the next couple weeks.

https://www.kut.org/post/austin-could-see-spike-cases-easter-weekend-socializing-judge-eckhardt-says

Saw two gatherings that were definitely not kosher, while jogging after lunch on Easter .   I know the folks who live in the houses, and the people they were hanging with did not live there. 

The first one, I had actually slowed down and happened to have my phone out responding to a text, and the neighbor across the street was  thinking I was calling it in, and she yelled out “don’t worry, I’ve already reported them.”  We got dirty looks from the group.  The visitors were gone by the time I came back by.

This is not rocket science   If you absolutely have to visit friends in person, meet them at the end of your driveway and just keep a safe distance   Don’t sit down next to them and let your kids play together.  Especially in plain sight of your neighbors and everybody passing by.

These people are going to fuck it up for the rest of us.   From the article above, this is Escott speaking:

Quote

If you see someone without a face covering on, he says, don't judge them. Instead, he says, suggest that they wear one. He said the order for face coverings will likely become a "long-standing requirement." 

 

[atomheartbevo 89362]

A whole lot of people are discovering that their cell phones are being used to rate social distancing in various cities with data from various private companies.   That is an interesting little byproduct of all of this.

But, it’s not always accurate:  Me out jogging might count against my area, but it doesn’t account for the fact that I am more than keeping my distance from others.   And it doesn’t account for the necessary grocery runs, etc.   

And it’s liable to keep some from taking their phones with them.   

Edited April 15, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[SydneyCarton 47809]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

A whole lot of people are discovering that their cell phones are being used to rate social distancing in various cities.   That is an interesting little byproduct of all of this.  

Yeah, everyone being slapped in the face that we’re closer to 1984 than most are comfortable with...throw it on them pile of General Discontent. 
 

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

A whole lot of people are discovering that their cell phones are being used to rate social distancing in various cities.   That is an interesting little byproduct of all of this.  

Jokes on them. I have my phone housed in 8 layers of 23 gauge aluminum sheetmetal........

[atomheartbevo 89362]

14 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

I’ve been watching a lot of YouTube (metal detecting, history, etc.) and in just a few weeks, I’ve seen ads for Cedar Park Toyota go from “we’re cleaning the hell out of our doors, surfaces, car interiors, etc.and here’s video proving it!” to “You can buy a car online and we will bring it to your driveway!”

[ruitxn 295]

7 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think testing every single person has ever been goal. I'm not sure where you got that. The goal is to have enough testing so that we can test everyone that needs it (e.g., those with symptoms or who have been in contact with someone who was positive). 

It is called robust random testing.  Business and industries make valid assumptions regarding strategies and marketing based primarily on random analysis all the time.

[NorthLoop 14071]

21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And it’s liable to keep some from taking their phones with them.   

If by "some" you mean 3 or 4 people... in an entire city. 

[Treefidy 1463]

7 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Infection only. Which, regardless of your opinion, it is a big deal to many people still. Governor Cuomo had his daily press conference, and he still views the infection test the more important of the two tests in regards to opening back up the economy of NY, and he was very clear on that front. I agree with your general thinking, but in terms of opening up the economy and being able to isolate clusters of folks moving onward is still a step forward compared to "If you've traveled to China or Italy in the last month, are showing symptoms, licked some toilet seats and ask really really nicely you can get a test" requisites as of like a week ago. 

 

 

That doesn't seem logical to me, a test that's merely a snapshot in time being more important than a test that shows a broader picture.

serious question, if you got sick with an ILi and were on the mend, would you not test positive for antibodies?  I can't see how the answer is no unless your body is losing and you're dying.

so a test that shows if you've previously had or potentially still have CV if you're recovering, and possibly shows people who are immune... that test isn't as important as a test that says right now at this current moment you aren't infected with zero data to show if you have had, are potentially immune, or that you might have just picked it up on your way to get tested and by the way, good luck over the next few weeks.  

Makes sense. 

[WBT 20397]

5 minutes ago, ruitxn said:

It is called robust random testing.  Business and industries make valid assumptions regarding strategies and marketing based primarily on random analysis all the time.

I'm amazed that this seemingly hasn't been happening all along.  Instead of only testing sick people it seems like you'd want to use say 1-2% of your tests on a random sample to try to better assess the spread of the virus.

[InkaUtexas 25423]

6 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

*fify

Roll Left Bitches. 

[SizzleChest 8275]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

Quote

In a phone call last week, some of the nation's top scientists briefed White House officials about antibody testing, according to two doctors who were on the call. 

Much of the news wasn't very good. 

 

Antibody tests check to see if a person has previously been infected with Covid-19, an indication that they've had the virus and now could be immune to it. 

 

 

Dr. Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, has called such tests "critical." 

The test can help determine if someone is immune to coronavirus, "and that's going to be important when you think about getting people back into the workplace," according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, a member of the task force.  "The antibody test says you were infected and if you're feeling well, you've very likely recovered," Fauci said. "As we look forward, as we get to the point of at least considering opening up the country as it were, it's very important to appreciate and to understand how much that virus has penetrated society."

Trump administration officials have promised that antibody tests are on their way. 

 

 

"We have made great progress with the antibody testing, fantastic progress," Trump said at a media briefing April 5. 

Five days later, Vice President Mike Pence said at a media briefing that "very soon we will have an antibody test that Americans will be able to take to determine whether they ever had the coronavirus." 

 

But on the April 6 phone call, members of the National Academy of Sciences' Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats told members of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy there are issues with the availability and reliability of the antibody tests in the United States right now. 

"In three words: Work in progress," said Dr. David Relman, a member of the National Academy of Sciences committee who was on the call. 

There are several layers of issues with the antibody tests. 

 

 

First, the US Food and Drug Administration relaxed its rules, and now companies can sell antibody tests without submitting validation data that shows they actually work. 

The American Public Health Lab Association says that has resulted in "crappy" tests flooding the market.

"It's like the wild, wild West out there -- or wild East," said association CEO Scott Becker, a reference to the fact that at least half the companies making these tests are in China.

Becker said that in conference call Tuesday that FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn said antibody tests would undergo scientific review by the National Cancer Institute. 

There has been concern that some of the tests might confuse the coronavirus causing the current pandemic with one of several coronaviruses that cause the common cold.

"Lots of tests confuse the two," Relman said. 

 

 

The tests would then end up telling people they had antibodies to the pandemic coronavirus when they didn't, and people might think they're immune when they're not. 

A few days after the phone call, the NAS scientists wrote a letter to the White House frankly apprising them about the quality of antibody tests.

Results from antibody tests "should be viewed as suspect until rigorous controls are performed and performance characteristics described, as antibody detection methods can vary considerably, and most so far have not described well-standardized controls," according to the letter.

 

Second, there are good tests in the midst of the bad ones, but they're not yet widely and easily available throughout the country. 

Third, it's not entirely clear that having antibodies to Covid-19 means that you truly have immunity and won't get the disease again.

"That's the $64 question," said Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of the NAS committee, who was also on the phone call with the White House. "Does antibody level equate to resistance to getting ill again?" The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy did not respond to requests from CNN to describe what it learned on the April 6 call or how officials plan to use the information the scientists gave them. 

Fineberg said he felt that the White House officials paid close attention on the call. 

"That's the brilliance of Kelvin Droegemeier, to elicit this kind of input and turn to the academics in the first place," Fineberg said, referring to the director of the White House policy office. "They're genuinely trying to widen their aperture for advice, and I think so far it's working." 

"To see this kind of engagement is very heartening," Relman added. "Does it lead to useful consequences? Does it have an impact? Does the scientific engagement end up informing policy? For that I think we have to hope and wait and see." 

Fineberg added that antibody tests are important on a national scale, to gauge what proportion of the population might be immune, but also on a personal level.

"Everybody wants to know -- am I immune? Can I now visit Grandma so that I'm not a threat to her and she's not a threat to me?" he said. "How do we discern the people who can now safely go out and about? That's an important personal and social question."

 

[tx 3 putt 76158]

17 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Roll Left Bitches. 

he was a great ut qb !

[4th_and_18 687]

 

I like the weathertech ads. “Your car is dirty as fuck. Weathertech can be disinfected. Of anything. You’ll be putting your family in danger if you don’t have weathertech. Don’t be a bad dad. Get weathertech.”
(Slightly paraphrasing, but not really)

[4th_and_18 687]

 

So...we’re fucked? If you make it to September first you’re immune/already beat it.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

9 minutes ago, 4th_and_18 said:

I like the weathertech ads. “Your car is dirty as fuck. Weathertech can be disinfected. Of anything. You’ll be putting your family in danger if you don’t have weathertech. Don’t be a bad dad. Get weathertech.”
(Slightly paraphrasing, but not really)

Worst fitting floormats I ever bought, too. 

[stork642 4498]

1 hour ago, Message Board User said:

 

That fatality rate will go way down once the total number of infected is realized.  

[wild_turkey 3150]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/14/health/coronavirus-antibody-tests-scientists/index.html

In a phone call last week, some of the nation's top scientists briefed White House officials about antibody testing, according to two doctors who were on the call. 

Much of the news wasn't very good.    Antibody tests check to see if a person has previously been infected with Covid-19, an indication that they've had the virus and now could be immune to it.      Dr. Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House coronavirus task force, has called such tests "critical."  The test can help determine if someone is immune to coronavirus, "and that's going to be important when you think about getting people back into the workplace," according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, a member of the task force.  "The antibody test says you were infected and if you're feeling well, you've very likely recovered," Fauci said. "As we look forward, as we get to the point of at least considering opening up the country as it were, it's very important to appreciate and to understand how much that virus has penetrated society." Trump administration officials have promised that antibody tests are on their way.      "We have made great progress with the antibody testing, fantastic progress," Trump said at a media briefing April 5.  Five days later, Vice President Mike Pence said at a media briefing that "very soon we will have an antibody test that Americans will be able to take to determine whether they ever had the coronavirus."    But on the April 6 phone call, members of the National Academy of Sciences' Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats told members of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy there are issues with the availability and reliability of the antibody tests in the United States right now.  "In three words: Work in progress," said Dr. David Relman, a member of the National Academy of Sciences committee who was on the call.  There are several layers of issues with the antibody tests.      First, the US Food and Drug Administration relaxed its rules, and now companies can sell antibody tests without submitting validation data that shows they actually work.  The American Public Health Lab Association says that has resulted in "crappy" tests flooding the market. "It's like the wild, wild West out there -- or wild East," said association CEO Scott Becker, a reference to the fact that at least half the companies making these tests are in China. Becker said that in conference call Tuesday that FDA Commissioner Dr. Stephen Hahn said antibody tests would undergo scientific review by the National Cancer Institute.  There has been concern that some of the tests might confuse the coronavirus causing the current pandemic with one of several coronaviruses that cause the common cold. "Lots of tests confuse the two," Relman said.      The tests would then end up telling people they had antibodies to the pandemic coronavirus when they didn't, and people might think they're immune when they're not.  A few days after the phone call, the NAS scientists wrote a letter to the White House frankly apprising them about the quality of antibody tests. Results from antibody tests "should be viewed as suspect until rigorous controls are performed and performance characteristics described, as antibody detection methods can vary considerably, and most so far have not described well-standardized controls," according to the letter.   Second, there are good tests in the midst of the bad ones, but they're not yet widely and easily available throughout the country.  Third, it's not entirely clear that having antibodies to Covid-19 means that you truly have immunity and won't get the disease again. "That's the $64 question," said Dr. Harvey Fineberg, chairman of the NAS committee, who was also on the phone call with the White House. "Does antibody level equate to resistance to getting ill again?" The White House Office of Science and Technology Policy did not respond to requests from CNN to describe what it learned on the April 6 call or how officials plan to use the information the scientists gave them.  Fineberg said he felt that the White House officials paid close attention on the call.  "That's the brilliance of Kelvin Droegemeier, to elicit this kind of input and turn to the academics in the first place," Fineberg said, referring to the director of the White House policy office. "They're genuinely trying to widen their aperture for advice, and I think so far it's working."  "To see this kind of engagement is very heartening," Relman added. "Does it lead to useful consequences? Does it have an impact? Does the scientific engagement end up informing policy? For that I think we have to hope and wait and see."  Fineberg added that antibody tests are important on a national scale, to gauge what proportion of the population might be immune, but also on a personal level. "Everybody wants to know -- am I immune? Can I now visit Grandma so that I'm not a threat to her and she's not a threat to me?" he said. "How do we discern the people who can now safely go out and about? That's an important personal and social question."

 

Thanks for posting and a lot of valid info but it doesn’t mention anything about a timeline for widespread antibody testing with reliable tests not imported from China. It’s maddening that this is taking so long and the updates we do get are so vague.

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

[bluto 4873]

That fatality rate will go way down once the total number of infected is realized.  

I don’t think you’ll get any disagreement on that, but good effin luck to anybody ever getting total number infected.

[Captainant 27309]

2 hours ago, Shaddie said:

The issue with antibody test is amount of antibodies in blood. Nobody has determined amount to be safe from re-infection 

The antibody test isn't testing for a quantity of antibody, it's searching for the existence of a type of antibody. As a gross simplification, there's an "A" type of antibody that your body produces when fighting COVID-19, and is a strong indicator that you are currently infectious. There is also a "B" type that your body produces after exposure that is an indicator of some level of immunity above baseline. 

That's the output from antibody testing, and why it's so important. It's a much more detailed datapoint that can enable our leaders and doctors to make informed and calculated decisions. 

[bluto 4873]

Buddy of mine found himself in suburb DFW ER last night with appendicitis, they were all set to wheel him into the OR when a covid patient was wheeled into the ER. the whole thing came to a stop as they had to intubate immediately, said all of the staff tending to him bolted. Pushed his surgery back to the morning and they sent him home by dinner.
#coolstarrybra

[dcar00 14023]

1 hour ago, stork642 said:

That fatality rate will go way down once the total number of infected is realized.  

the fatality rate is already .3 or lower.

[dcar00 14023]

1 hour ago, bluto said:

I don’t think you’ll get any disagreement on that, but good effin luck to anybody ever getting total number infected.

agree that it will be lower but in regards to number of infected we did it for H1N1, why can't we do it for this?

[bluto 4873]

agree that it will be lower but in regards to number of infected we did it for H1N1, why can't we do it for this?

I don’t think these numbers are helpful even 11 yrs after.

Per wiki there were 1.6m confirmed worldwide cases and...


“Some studies estimated that 11 to 21 percent of the global population at the time—or around 700 million to 1.4 billion people (of a total 6.8 billion)—contracted the illness.”

And cdc site for US specifically...

From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million)

[justhookit 4174]

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

A whole lot of people are discovering that their cell phones are being used to rate social distancing in various cities with data from various private companies.   That is an interesting little byproduct of all of this.

But, it’s not always accurate:  Me out jogging might count against my area, but it doesn’t account for the fact that I am more than keeping my distance from others.   And it doesn’t account for the necessary grocery runs, etc.   

And it’s liable to keep some from taking their phones with them.   

‘A whole lot of people”? I’ve read pretty much every post on this thread, have the news on in the background pretty much daily, watch maybe 1/3 of the daily task force briefings, read a fuckton of news articles....... and I’ve maybe seen this thought referenced 5 times in relation to C19 and they were all on this thread. What people do you think this news is reaching?

to your additional point about it not being accurate. No shit? It was discussed here.

edit- I don’t Facebook so if that’s where this news is spreading, fuck me and fuck them for using it

Edited April 15, 2020 by justhookit
Facebook

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

the fatality rate is already .3 or lower.

Tucker had a pretty good segment tonight about what the fatality rate might actually be with examples. Also talks to a Stanford dr who’s conducting the MLB test who too believes the death rate is incredibly low

[dcar00 14023]

5 minutes ago, bluto said:

I don’t think these numbers are helpful even 11 yrs after.

Per wiki there were 1.6m confirmed worldwide cases and...


“Some studies estimated that 11 to 21 percent of the global population at the time—or around 700 million to 1.4 billion people (of a total 6.8 billion)—contracted the illness.”

And cdc site for US specifically...

From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million)

so wait until people start digging into how the CDC actually came up with that number.   Dr Reed will become famous.

[dcar00 14023]

8 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Tucker had a pretty good segment tonight about what the fatality rate might actually be with examples. Also talks to a Stanford dr who’s conducting the MLB test who too believes the death rate is incredibly low

 

 

 

 

 

The media will get there eventually but they are about a month behind right now.  by June the news will be dominated by what the actual IFR is.   get ya popcorn ready.

[Iceman 2628]

4 hours ago, stork642 said:

That fatality rate will go way down once the total number of infected is realized.  

Not if the cause of death keeps being manipulated.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19073]

7 hours ago, wild_turkey said:

 

Thanks for posting and a lot of valid info but it doesn’t mention anything about a timeline for widespread antibody testing with reliable tests not imported from China. It’s maddening that this is taking so long and the updates we do get are so vague.

This right here.  It should not take so fucking long.  What is the major hold up?

[NoName 16271]

Iran update

 

[po elvis 2070]

4 minutes ago, NoName said:

Iran update

 

Now for a machine that will identify an airliner.

[NorthLoop 14071]

1 minute ago, po elvis said:

Now for a machine that will identify an airliner.

lock it up

[NoName 16271]

2 minutes ago, po elvis said:

Now for a machine that will identify an airliner.

[XYZ 2154]

How is it possible that Japan has 30 times fewer cases per capita than the USA. Not 30% less. 30 TIMES. Superior cleanliness? Culture of wearing face masks? No handshakes? Genetic predisposición to resist the virus? In terms of deaths per million people: 79 times smaller. WTF?

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

Just now, XYZ said:

How is it possible that Japan has 30 times fewer cases per capita than the USA. Not 30% less. 30 TIMES. Superior cleanliness? Culture of wearing face masks? No handshakes? Genetic predisposición to resist the virus? In terms of deaths per million people: 79 times smaller. WTF?

Lying?

[drt 637]

Just now, XYZ said:

How is it possible that Japan has 30 times fewer cases per capita than the USA. Not 30% less. 30 TIMES. Superior cleanliness? Culture of wearing face masks? No handshakes? Genetic predisposición to resist the virus? In terms of deaths per million people: 79 times smaller. WTF?

Yes, yes, yes, probably not, not sure. 

[XYZ 2154]

6 minutes ago, po elvis said:

Now for a machine that will identify an airliner.

This is the end. This is the end of surly.

[NoName 16271]

1 minute ago, XYZ said:

How is it possible that Japan has 30 times fewer cases per capita than the USA. Not 30% less. 30 TIMES. Superior cleanliness? Culture of wearing face masks? No handshakes? Genetic predisposición to resist the virus? In terms of deaths per million people: 79 times smaller. WTF?

took immediate action (closed down schools v quickly), culture (masks, separation, cleanliness), etc 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Wasn’t there a crazy spike in cases after they announced the postponement of the Olympics?

[stork642 4498]

5 hours ago, Iceman said:

Not if the cause of death keeps being manipulated.

Sounds like if you die at your home in NYC it is classified as CV death now.  These numbers are beginning to seem completely unreliable.  When it comes to stimulus money does NYC get paid by the body?

[VABuckeye 2472]

15 minutes ago, XYZ said:

How is it possible that Japan has 30 times fewer cases per capita than the USA. Not 30% less. 30 TIMES. Superior cleanliness? Culture of wearing face masks? No handshakes? Genetic predisposición to resist the virus? In terms of deaths per million people: 79 times smaller. WTF?

They're rules followers.  The same with other countries.  Here, we're asked to do some simple things and you have the "muh rights!!!" crowd and you have the "I'm doing St. Paddy's day and spring break crowd".

To paraphrase, we're a nation of (mostly) idiots.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 minutes ago, stork642 said:

Sounds like if you die at your home in NYC it is classified as CV death now.  These numbers are beginning to seem completely unreliable.  When it comes to stimulus money does NYC get paid by the body?

By the pound I believe.    Soylent Green futures are off the chart.

[gmr548 16463]

And it’s liable to keep some from taking their phones with them.   

A lot fewer car accidents at least?

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

26 minutes ago, XYZ said:

How is it possible that Japan has 30 times fewer cases per capita than the USA. Not 30% less. 30 TIMES. Superior cleanliness? Culture of wearing face masks? No handshakes? Genetic predisposición to resist the virus? In terms of deaths per million people: 79 times smaller. WTF?

Maybe strong doses of radiation have strengthened the country’s immune system?

[Dahobbs 17420]

8 minutes ago, stork642 said:

Sounds like if you die at your home in NYC it is classified as CV death now.  These numbers are beginning to seem completely unreliable.  When it comes to stimulus money does NYC get paid by the body?

That isn't the case. The numbers NYC added were already identified as caused by Covid-19 on the death certificate, they just didn't get included in the prior counts because it wasn't confirmed by tests. The release I saw looked like NYC was following CDC guidelines, i.e., identifying it has Covid-19 suspected when symptoms consistent with Covid-19 are present. It is probably slightly over inclusive, but given that NY has been having nearly 2x its average daily death rate on Covid-19 alone , I'm going out on a limb and saying statistically almost any death in the city has a >50% of being due to Covid-19. 

25 minutes ago, XYZ said:

How is it possible that Japan has 30 times fewer cases per capita than the USA. Not 30% less. 30 TIMES. Superior cleanliness? Culture of wearing face masks? No handshakes? Genetic predisposición to resist the virus? In terms of deaths per million people: 79 times smaller. WTF?

Probably all of the above (well, except genetics, I don't think there is any evidence of that). Plus, I suspect their super advanced toilets/bidets (washing+drying for potentially hands free toilet use) contribute to lessening the spread as well by reducing or eliminating spread from the fecal-oral transfer route (e.g., people going to the bathroom, not washing their hands fully, and touching other people/surfaces). 

[NorthLoop 14071]

37 minutes ago, XYZ said:

How is it possible that Japan has 30 times fewer cases per capita than the USA. Not 30% less. 30 TIMES. Superior cleanliness? Culture of wearing face masks? No handshakes? Genetic predisposición to resist the virus? In terms of deaths per million people: 79 times smaller. WTF?

 

37 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Lying?

 

23 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Wasn’t there a crazy spike in cases after they announced the postponement of the Olympics?

This. They were desperately trying to hold on to the Olympics so their numbers are bullshit. 

[Anastasis 23375]

34 minutes ago, XYZ said:

How is it possible that Japan has 30 times fewer cases per capita than the USA. Not 30% less. 30 TIMES. Superior cleanliness? Culture of wearing face masks? No handshakes? Genetic predisposición to resist the virus? In terms of deaths per million people: 79 times smaller. WTF?

They were suppressing numbers until the Olympics were cancelled.  There is no doubt that their wide spread mask wearing and cultural practices are playing a role in where they are at, but they are also clipping along at a pretty good doubling rate now doing their best to catch up to the rest of the world.