Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[pacman 7367]

6 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

but the doom and gloom predictions that massive dead piling the streets 

 

now you are inflating for sure

[babysdaddy 2726]

I thought Pam was a chick?  Or is just one of the deeply disturbed posters that pretends to be a female for their sock?  

[dcar00 14321]

1 minute ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Oh I know it's not a sinister game, but it is the game they play, and the stats right now are murky because people are overwhelmed so death records are gonna be assigned the easiest route right now.

After the fact testing is going to show a much lower rate than current graphs are showing. We aren't going to have massive death tolls unless this thing hits again or mutates. 

exactly.  many people think they have a 4% chance of dying from this, regardless if they have it now.  the media can't report higher death tolls that what the states or CDC report but they can shape how they report death percentages.  It can confuse people who aren't really paying attention and see the 4% number on 1point3 or worldometers.

4 months in to H1N1 the CDC released a paper with an estimate of number of cases. we are 3.5 months into this.  I think our experts should be using the terms confirmed case fatality rate and then estimated case fatality rate.  IMO, the govt doesn't want to discuss the ECFR/IFR because they don't want the public to relax.

the push for masks now is what they are using to calm the public into feeling they can go out soon when they start the slow opening.

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

"Hits again?"  We have real-world data on what it does when allowed to spread unchecked.  The death toll in NYC tells us that.  NYC is seeing something like 3X the average daily number of deaths -- logic tells us that spike is COVID-related (as there's no other outlier cause we're aware of).  

If we do not reduce transmission, we have a spike in deaths.  The data doesn't tell us exactly what the RATE is, but it tells us unambiguously that we'll have a spike -- more people will die than otherwise would have.  A lot more.

And again, hospitalization rate and hospitalization stay.  This is a bad fucking disease, and without appropriate measures, it can and will kill a lot of people.

We have taken steps to keep that number low.  Those steps are killing us economically.  You can reduce deaths.  Or you can have a functioning economy.  We can't have both.

Hits again, meaning if we flatten the curve, relax social distancing, we could see another spike.

[LABEVO 928]

The company has had to shut down one plant already which processes ~7%+ of pork to the US market.

 

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

3 minutes ago, Loco said:

 

[Brisketexan 105188]

8 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

https://fsi.stanford.edu/news/coronavirus-deadly-they-say

here is the stanford link to the story about the article.  its an opinion article they published in the WSJ I think.  basically he is saying that the 2M+ deaths were based on spanish flu type scenarios from 100 years ago and that the death rate is an order of magnitude lower than the 2-4% people keep referencing based on CCFR(confirmed case fatality rate).

I know he used 100M as and example for easy maths but I think that would be a reasonable number that will end up being infected from the start of this.

Again, focus on death RATE is incomplete.  If the death RATE of a disease is 50%, but that disease only occurs in 100 people a year, then we're talking 50 dead.

If the death rate is 1% (so, PLENTY lower than 2-4%), but the disease is much more virulent than the flu, and ultimately infects 200 million in the US, then your total number of dead is 2 million. Even if it's half that (.5%), it's still 1 million dead.  Total deaths is the number we should be looking at.  And it seems very likely that allowed to spread unchecked, the total number of infected will be VERY high, and thus the total deaths will be much higher than we've seen with the flu.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

exactly.  many people think they have a 4% chance of dying from this, regardless if they have it now.  the media can't report higher death tolls that what the states or CDC report but they can shape how they report death percentages.  It can confuse people who aren't really paying attention and see the 4% number on 1point3 or worldometers.

4 months in to H1N1 the CDC released a paper with an estimate of number of cases. we are 3.5 months into this.  I think our experts should be using the terms confirmed case fatality rate and then estimated case fatality rate.  IMO, the govt doesn't want to discuss the ECFR/IFR because they don't want the public to relax.

the push for masks now is what they are using to calm the public into feeling they can go out soon when they start the slow opening.

 

And I kind of get that. Some people just don't take prudent precautions.  People should be a little scared too keep them doing what they should be to help flatten the curve.

[C-Man 27239]

2 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

I've noted it before, but feel compelled to do so again.

The data/stats/reality we don't know greatly outweighs the data we can confirm. 

I've pretty much completely avoided all the chart and diagram talk because shit data in is shit data out. 

The fact that we don't have a national general testing strategy is, and continues, to be the most frustrating portion of the entire shit show. 

If nothing else comes out of all this is build a fucking testing plan. We've known this was coming, another will come. This is the known reality. A plan, even a shitty one, is better than no plan at all. This is not just the US BTW, I'm talking globally. However, given I live in the US, I will focus my thought there. Beyond testing for the virus, a general plan of, hmmm China is at their bullshit again, close the fucking doors might not be a terrible idea. Not 2 months after China is on fire. Oh, yeah, I keep mentioning China because well this shit keeps coming from those fuck heads.

Beyond all that, we should burn, completely the WHO. Torch it and kill it forever.

Absolutely correct. Have a testing plan and stockpile medical equipment/PPE ready to mobilize at the first sign of the next pandemic.

[SydneyCarton 48144]

5 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

I thought Pam was a chick?  Or is just one of the deeply disturbed posters that pretends to be a female for their sock?  

I'm not sure I really see the purpose of assigning a specific gender to pieces of shit. 

[Brisketexan 105188]

2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Hits again, meaning if we flatten the curve, relax social distancing, we could see another spike.

Well, exactly.  That's what I mean -- we can have a high number of total deaths (death rate isn't the measure, total deaths is) if we relax social distancing to open the economy, or we can avoid those spikes by keeping a lot of the economy closed.

Scylla and Charybdis -- no good choices.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Just now, C-Man said:

Absolutely correct. Have a testing plan and stockpile medical equipment/PPE ready to mobilize at the first sign of the next pandemic.

Hopefully this is the wake up call that makes that happen. It's in the interest of national security for citizens physical, and economic well being.

[Loco 3753]

Just now, Texaus said:

I vote for a functioning economy

I vote for a scientific, data driven, approach to solving this (and pretty much every) problem.  Unfortunately the US has so badly bungled the handling of this crisis that it may take weeks even months just have any real semblance of what is happening or to coordinate an effective plan to move forward. Testing, back tracing, public safety guidelines.

Those testing numbers that have been tossed about...  They're bullshit too.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241882491.html

Quote

Florida is significantly under-reporting the state’s COVID-19 testing backlog, a blind spot in the data that could obscure the pandemic’s size and hamper efforts to decide when it’s safe to end restrictions such as social distancing — even as Gov. Ron DeSantis touts the state’s transparency when it comes to coronavirus.

On its public website, the Florida Department of Health says about 1,400 people statewide are waiting for their test results. But that’s an undercount, the department acknowledged in response to questions from the Miami Herald. And it’s likely a massive one.

That’s because the state only reports the number of Floridians waiting to hear back from state labs, not private ones — and those private labs are completing more than 90% of Florida’s tests. The state website doesn’t say that its figures exclude the vast majority of pending tests for the novel coronavirus.

Two small, private South Florida healthcare providers told the Herald this week that they are awaiting COVID-19 test results for almost 800 patients. That number alone would increase the state’s official count of backlogged tests by more than 50%.

Not having the results from the backlog of testing means state officials can’t get a real-time picture of how deeply the disease has penetrated the population and when people might have hope of resuming their lives and getting back to work, said Arthur Caplan, professor of bioethics at New York University Langone Medical Center.

“The key to ending the quarantining and social isolation is accurate information about where testing is, how fast we can expect tests to clear, and ultimately how fast we can expect to have a lot of testing,” Caplan said. “If the backlog gets enormous, then the public needs to know.”

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Well, exactly.  That's what I mean -- we can have a high number of total deaths (death rate isn't the measure, total deaths is) if we relax social distancing to open the economy, or we can avoid those spikes by keeping a lot of the economy closed.

Scylla and Charybdis -- no good choices.

Sure, there' going to have to be a measured balance of protecting people, and the nation s economy.  The more we discover about this virus, the better we'll be able to deal with it going forward.

[pacman 7367]

this pandemic needed a no politics thread..unfortunately politics inserted itself into the pandemic from the get go

 

hence, ineffectiveness is the name of the game

1 minute ago, Loco said:

I vote for a scientific, data driven, approach to solving this (and pretty much every) problem.  Unfortunately the US has so badly bungled the handling of this crisis that it may take weeks even months just have any real semblance of what is happening or to coordinate an effective plan to move forward. Testing, back tracing, public safety guidelines.

Those testing numbers that have been tossed about...  They're bullshit too.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241882491.html

 

 

[FondrenRoad 4378]

23 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Hey I'm not discounting  that people are dying from this virus, but the inflation of death rates is a media game plain and simple.

It's affecting other people with un related issues.  But look at what happened in Washington state. The federal gov't set up a hospital for the flood of  Covid patients, that was coming, and not one bed was ever used. Again hysteria being used instead of fact.

Depression ?  I reject that unless this thing goes on for many many many months.  Recession ?  Sure, But no depression.

Washington got on board with the lockdown quickly. Deaths are low because the infection rate is low.  

NYC is at more than twice its usual death rate right now. Its hardly an overcount. Significantly more people are dying in NYC right now than ever before.  You know, there were probably several terminal cancer patients or people at various stages of heart disease that died in 9-11. I don't recall a single person suggesting they shouldn't count as terrorist victims. 

You do also realize that a 40 year old with asthma can live to be a 70 year old with asthma, right?  He isn't going to die soon absent covid.

I thought this was supposed to be the apolitical board. Why are people running with Tucker Carlson talking points and posting his videos?

But I do have a question for you, onboard. Why do you need for the covid impact to appear minimized?  Just let the numbers speak for themselves. Social distancing is working and thats a good thing. 

[Captainant 27706]

5 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Hopefully this is the wake up call that makes that happen. It's in the interest of national security for citizens physical, and economic well being.

Ideally, the programs that were cut in 2018 and 2019 would be reinstated, for a start. It turns out we can't "just hire them back when we need them"

[immortal13 4059]

1 hour ago, workswithseed said:

What if you see Rachael Maddow? Is that cr?

He gets a boner

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, FondrenRoad said:

Washington got on board with the lockdown quickly. Deaths are low because the infection rate is low.  

NYC is at more than twice its usual death rate right now. Its hardly an overcount. Significantly more people are dying in NYC right now than ever before.  You know, there were probably several terminal cancer patients or people at various stages of heart disease that died in 9-11. I don't recall a single person suggesting they shouldn't count as terrorist victims. 

You do also realize that a 40 year old with asthma can live to be a 70 year old with asthma, right?  He isn't going to die soon absent covid.

I thought this was supposed to be the apolitical board. Why are people running with Tucker Carlson talking points and posting his videos?

But I do have a question for you, onboard. Why do you need for the covid impact to appear minimized?  Just let the numbers speak for themselves. Social distancing is working and thats a good thing. 

The comments were not from Tucker. They were from the STANFORD UNIVERSITY DR./ IMMUNOLOGIST RESEARCHER he was interviewing.  Tucker did nothing but give the man a national platform.

 

Sorry your gotcha attempt didn't turn out the way you'd like...

[Loco 3753]

1 minute ago, pacman said:

this pandemic needed a no politics thread..unfortunately politics inserted itself into the pandemic from the get go

 

hence, ineffectiveness is the name of the game

 

Bullshit.   

It's not political to acknowledge our failure to respond to this pandemic.  Go ahead you start by making your argument that the US did a great job. I'll respond with counter arguments.  No need to name names.  We can start with PPE, testing, interstate coordination, communication...  or wherever the fuck you want.

[NeverMarryAStripper 21913]

23 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

The strip joints opening up would make the strippers happier. 

The benefits of a passel of unemployed strippers far outweighs the benefits of reopening the strip clubs

[BradInATX 9208]

By the pound I believe.    Soylent Green futures are off the chart.

NOLA finna get paid

[dcar00 14321]

20 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Again, focus on death RATE is incomplete.  If the death RATE of a disease is 50%, but that disease only occurs in 100 people a year, then we're talking 50 dead.

If the death rate is 1% (so, PLENTY lower than 2-4%), but the disease is much more virulent than the flu, and ultimately infects 200 million in the US, then your total number of dead is 2 million. Even if it's half that (.5%), it's still 1 million dead.  Total deaths is the number we should be looking at.  And it seems very likely that allowed to spread unchecked, the total number of infected will be VERY high, and thus the total deaths will be much higher than we've seen with the flu.

Again, the estimated case fatality rate isn't going to be anywhere near 1% and never was.  yes it is way more transmissive than the flu and as stated many times in this thread, we didn't fully lock down, mardi gras, spring break, churches, and have lots of idiots roaming around parks/not wearing masks in high numbers, so the estimated case number is going to be very high. much higher than H1N1.

 flu death rate over the last 8-10 years is about .13.  100M estimated case is probably a reasonable number after 1 year. 1/3 of the US population.

Edit: after one year 100M 

Edited April 15, 2020 by dcar00

[Royalfan5 2354]

16 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

The company has had to shut down one plant already which processes ~7%+ of pork to the US market.

 

We are still swamped with pork to the point of pork working into export channels for the cost of packaging. We rebounded sharply slaughter runs yesterday as well, even with that plant down. 

[pacman 7367]

2 minutes ago, Loco said:

Bullshit.   

It's not political to acknowledge our failure to respond to this pandemic.  Go ahead you start by making your argument that the US did a great job. I'll respond with counter arguments.  No need to name names.  We can start with PPE, testing, interstate coordination, communication...  or wherever the fuck you want.

You clearly misunderstand. Our early response to this pandemic was based on politics, and it continues today. Hence, we have been ineffective. I agree with you.

[dcar00 14321]

11 minutes ago, Loco said:

I vote for a scientific, data driven, approach to solving this (and pretty much every) problem.  Unfortunately the US has so badly bungled the handling of this crisis that it may take weeks even months just have any real semblance of what is happening or to coordinate an effective plan to move forward. Testing, back tracing, public safety guidelines.

Those testing numbers that have been tossed about...  They're bullshit too.

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241882491.html

 

well the head chief scientist told us at the beginning of March that we shouldn't be changing what we are doing.

[workswithseed 2109]

4 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

The benefits of a passel of unemployed strippers far outweighs the benefits of reopening the strip clubs

Theirs plenty of strippers here in Portland, so I think it could be a cheap night. Unless the gf says otherwise.

[BradInATX 9208]

1 hour ago, Hate said:

I think Pam must be a Brad sock.

Unlike you, I have zero political posts on this thread. I actually agree in this case that Pam's political posts are out of line, just like the one you made the other day was.

Edited April 15, 2020 by BradInATX

[Bevo 13591]

47 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Hey I'm not discounting  that people are dying from this virus, but the inflation of death rates is a media game plain and simple.

I don't think so. I've been following this since the beginning and the WHO was using the total number of cases around the world including China (and Wuhan), and coming up with a 3-6% mortality rate. I was taking out the numbers from Wuhan and coming up with a mortality rate closer to 0.3%. It was pretty evident that Wuhan was an outlier and had a lot more cases than being reported. The media outlets have just followed the WHO and the CDC was doing the same thing as the WHO.

[stork642 4498]

46 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

One can agree with the Stanford fellow that the death rate is orders of magnitude lower than early WHO projections (some as high as 3.4%) and realize that it is still significantly greater than the death rate from the flu.  This is a seriously deadly disease, particularly when left to spread unchecked -- Italy and NYC stand as stark exhibits of that fact.

Another issue is the hospitalization rate (which looks to be much higher than with the flu), and on top of that, the DURATION of hospital stays -- a typical flu hospitalization is around 3 days.  COVID hospitalizations are lasting two weeks.

I think everyone around here agrees that data is woefully incomplete, and extrapolating a "death rate" from only "confirmed cases" is not a useful number.  So, let's remove the noise and look at the facts that we DO know with some measure of confidence, particularly in cases where no/limited major action is taken to reduce transmission:

Lots of people end up in the hospital.  Lots.

They are very contagious (healthcare workers are getting infected a LOT).

They are staying in the hospital for a long time.

The percentage of hospitalized people who end up dying is quite high.

The number of total deaths in an area of uncontrolled transmission is very high (see the typical number of daily deaths in NYC, compare to recent daily death numbers).

SO, we know that without taking significant steps to limit transmission, bad shit happens.  Plenty of bad shit.  Significantly worse than with any flu in modern history.  That tells us that we have to take steps to limit transmission.

My despair comes from the "so the fuck what?" answer to that?  If grandma avoids dying now, just to die in October when the virus continues its inexorable spread, then what's the fucking difference?  If all we do is spread out the death and misery, I mean, that's a SMALL win, just because hospitals can avoid crashing, but THAT'S our "win?"  That's it?  That fucking sucks.

And we're entering a global depression to accomplish it.  I just think there are no good options.  We're going into a depression, and everyone who was gonna die is still gonna die, just over an 18 month period instead of a 3-4 month period.  Hooray.

 

It sucks but the people at risk are going to get CV before the vaccine is viable.  The social distancing is to prevent a massive run on the hospitals where you have perfectly healthy people that need a procedure (appendicitis) that are affected and die.  I’m not sure we can protect the at risk people unless we hide out in our houses for the next 8-12 months which is not an option.  Both my parents are 80+ yrs old and are high risk just because of age.  I was telling my dad the other day not to go out/stay home and all he could talk about is that everyone needs to get back to work.  I am most concerned with their well fair but he is most concerned with the fact that some if not all of his kids and now grandchildren are starting to lose jobs and all the bad that goes along with that.  It’s a catch 22.  

[dcar00 14321]

9 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Yeah, Tucker gives a national political platform to a lot of people with fringe ideas if they support Trump's desires.  And, not surprisingly, you still don't have a real response. Look at the NYC statistics. And then explain how you believe all these people were going to die anyway. The numbers don't lie. 

Standford Medical is fringe..now I've heard it all.

[Hate 20128]

Unlike you, I have zero political posts on this thread. I actually agree in this case that Pam's political posts are out of line, just like the one you made the other day was.

I pointed out that you and your ilk have been crying wolf about everything for 3 years now and that it’s beyond tiresome. That’s it. Now fuck off.

[bolverk 29705]

22 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

The comments were not from Tucker. They were from the STANFORD UNIVERSITY DR./ IMMUNOLOGIST RESEARCHER he was interviewing.  Tucker did nothing but give the man a national platform.

 

Sorry your gotcha attempt didn't turn out the way you'd like...

Prior to interviewing that man, Tucker Carlson went on for 4 minutes throwing out random, small, unrepresentative preliminary studies to downplay the severity of the virus (while pretending not to) and stated:

"Maybe we could begin to think clearly again. Most of us want all of that badly, but do think our leaders want that? When you watch them, you begin to suspect they’re secretly enjoying our fear."

That's a 100% dog-whistle political statement.

Edit: And it plays directly toward the conspiracy-minded covidiots out there.

Edited April 15, 2020 by bolverk

[Brisketexan 105188]

2 minutes ago, stork642 said:

It sucks but the people at risk are going to get CV before the vaccine is viable.  The social distancing is to prevent a massive run on the hospitals where you have perfectly healthy people that need a procedure (appendicitis) that are affected and die.  I’m not sure we can protect the at risk people unless we hide out in our houses for the next 8-12 months which is not an option.  Both my parents are 80+ yrs old and are high risk just because of age.  I was telling my dad the other day not to go out/stay home and all he could talk about is that everyone needs to get back to work.  I am most concerned with their well fair but he is most concerned with the fact that some if not all of his kids and now grandchildren are starting to lose jobs and all the bad that goes along with that.  It’s a catch 22.  

And that's really my point.  There are no good choices.  The vulnerable are going to die.  Or the economy is going to crash completely.   We may not even have a choice -- both could happen.

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, Hate said:

I pointed out that you and your ilk have been crying wolf about everything for 3 years now and that it’s beyond tiresome. That’s it. Now fuck off.

"It's okay for me to post about politics, I'm special!"

[VABuckeye 2472]

33 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

I thought Pam was a chick?  Or is just one of the deeply disturbed posters that pretends to be a female for their sock?  

If it is it's one angry chick.

[gmr548 16590]

We aren't going to have massive death tolls unless this thing hits again

Which would appear to be a near certainty, to some unlnowable extent.

[dcar00 14321]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And that's really my point.  There are no good choices.  The vulnerable are going to die.  Or the economy is going to crash completely.   We may not even have a choice -- both could happen.

IMO, we've prevented the entire country/every major ciry hospital run and the deaths are very likely to be under 100K.  It sucks very badly but its time to get moving again, slowly. people are sufficiently warned.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Prior to interviewing that man, Tucker Carlson went on for 4 minutes throwing out random, small, unrepresentative preliminary studies to downplay the severity of the virus (while pretending not to) and stated:
"Maybe we could begin to think clearly again. Most of us want all of that badly, but do think our leaders want that? When you watch them, you begin to suspect they’re secretly enjoying our fear."
That's a 100% dog-whistle political statement.
Edit: And it plays directly toward the conspiracy-minded covidiots out there.

Ok doomer.

[justhookit 4191]

Is CR closed for maintenance or something. Fuck.

[Digdogger 1344]

7 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

If it is it's one angry chick.

“Wheelhouse” - NowThis

[Brisketexan 105188]

5 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

IMO, we've prevented the entire country/every major ciry hospital run and the deaths are very likely to be under 100K.  It sucks very badly but its time to get moving again, slowly. people are sufficiently warned.

The deaths from this outbreak will likely be less than 100k.  The question is, if we stop the very measures that helped us keep them below 100k during this particular window, will we see another spike and another 100k?  And another, and another?  We are not in a vacuum, these three months are not the end.

[Loco 3753]

18 minutes ago, pacman said:

You clearly misunderstand. Our early response to this pandemic was based on politics, and it continues today. Hence, we have been ineffective. I agree with you.

While I think that is true, I think other systemic problems in the US have been exposed.  Looking at you for profit healthcare industry.  I am heartened that despite stepping on our dick for the 1st quarter mile we have slowed the rate of growth of the problem (probably) and prevented having our healthcare systems completely overrun.  Let's just make sure we don't decide we kinda like dick stomping.

[Loco 3753]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

The deaths from this outbreak will likely be less than 100k.  The question is, if we stop the very measures that helped us keep them below 100k during this particular window, will we see another spike and another 100k?  And another, and another?  We are not in a vacuum, these three months are not the end.

Listen, people need a little Disney in their lives...  or a cruise to decompress!

[gmr548 16590]

 

19 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

I thought this was supposed to be the apolitical board. Why are people running with Tucker Carlson talking points and posting his videos?

 

The economy is gone in the short to medium term. Tens of millions unemployed and many consumers aren't going to be out in droves even if all local, state, and federal restrictions were lifted May 1, which they won't be.

So the deaths vs economy choice isn't real. You can have a hive spike in deaths with an economic downturn or you can have an economic downturn that will have a stronger recovery with a significantly less ravaged healthcare system and population. That's the choice.
 

blockquote widget

[stork642 4498]

6 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Is CR closed for maintenance or something. Fuck.

I think they try to cleanse the septic group think fuck fest that goes on there but all that happens is the rats scurry to other threads.  

Edited April 15, 2020 by stork642

[Fondren & Main 6726]

@blacklab @immamac fuckery is abound.

[gmr548 16590]

The deaths from this outbreak will likely be less than 100k.  The question is, if we stop the very measures that helped us keep them below 100k during this particular window, will we see another spike and another 100k?  And another, and another?  We are not in a vacuum, these three months are not the end.

Really not a hard concept. Don't know how this escapes so many.

[dcar00 14321]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

The deaths from this outbreak will likely be less than 100k.  The question is, if we stop the very measures that helped us keep them below 100k during this particular window, will we see another spike and another 100k?  And another, and another?  We are not in a vacuum, these three months are not the end.

I know this isn't the end, infact I have stated as such.  my answer is we can do things slowly to keep the sine wave smoother.  we went sledgehammer(IMO) and now it is time for the scalpel.  I fully understand I might end up on the short end of the stick.  lets get going. 4th and 5 national championship on the line right here.  let your nuts hang.  Olds need to be really careful.  

[pacman 7367]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The deaths from this outbreak will likely be less than 100k.  The question is, if we stop the very measures that helped us keep them below 100k during this particular window, will we see another spike and another 100k?  And another, and another?  We are not in a vacuum, these three months are not the end.

I can't reconcile keeping it under 100k. What is the line of thinking there, given we are already nearing 1/3 of the way there with 500k active cases open?