Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,435]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

But it sets up the nation for a different kind of ravaging?

I’m currently planning my own invasion. Too many age appropriate Japanese virgins for me to stand idly by and allow them to go to waste.

[Bruno Sardine 147]

1 hour ago, Royalfan5 said:

We are still swamped with pork to the point of pork working into export channels for the cost of packaging. We rebounded sharply slaughter runs yesterday as well, even with that plant down. 

I don't doubt this, and thanks for sharing your knowledge. But what is up with all the reports about disruptions to our meat supply? General consensus here is things are fine (there were posts in the recent past about the glut of food in commercial and institutional supply chains).  Here are some examples of what I'm talking about:

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/13/833623211/pork-plant-closure-highlights-disruption-of-food-supply-chain-due-to-coronavirus

https://www.wsj.com/articles/smithfield-ceo-warns-of-risks-to-pork-supply-11586730489

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/business/coronavirus-food-supply.html

 

 

[StruggleBus 3,922]

Surly must have a wicked case of the covidz

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,984]

I thought this was strange. NY updated today’s death count but no case count. Also they have 27000 recoveries but list 0 under New York




Something isn’t adding up with these guys

[Royalfan5 2,384]

56 minutes ago, Bruno Sardine said:

I don't doubt this, and thanks for sharing your knowledge. But what is up with all the reports about disruptions to our meat supply? General consensus here is things are fine (there were posts in the recent past about the glut of food in commercial and institutional supply chains).  Here are some examples of what I'm talking about:

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/13/833623211/pork-plant-closure-highlights-disruption-of-food-supply-chain-due-to-coronavirus

https://www.wsj.com/articles/smithfield-ceo-warns-of-risks-to-pork-supply-11586730489

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/business/coronavirus-food-supply.html

 

 

There are disruptions because we aren't running the plants hard enough to kill the amount of animals that need to be, so animals are backing up and less meat is being processed on a daily basis. We came into this with very burdensome stocks of meat, especially of pork so we have a lot of runway on that end. The company that is in the crosshairs for having the largest plant go do has a lot of incentive to scream about disruptions to get help. The meat chain isn't well understood by the general public or the media, and lends itself to a lot of stories like this. I get called by Bloomberg and Reuters fairly often to talk about meat stuff, and the reporters just aren't very well versed in the stuff, so a lot can get lost in translation in these stories too. 

[dcar00 14,974]

1 hour ago, pacman said:

 

March 8

 

Fauci on Meet the Press:

 "protect the vulnerable"

"right now, no large crowds, no long trips and above all don't get on a cruise ship"

"start seriously looking at social distancing"

"don't want to go to massive gatherings"

 

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/12/dr_anthony_fauci_at_this_time_there_is_no_need_to_change_your_habits_over_coronavirus.html

Today show guy "should we change our habits"

Fauci "No, but this could change"

Edited April 15, 2020 by dcar00

[Hate 20,249]

There are disruptions because we aren't running the plants hard enough to kill the amount of animals that need to be, so animals are backing up and less meat is being processed on a daily basis. We came into this with very burdensome stocks of meat, especially of pork so we have a lot of runway on that end. The company that is in the crosshairs for having the largest plant go do has a lot of incentive to scream about disruptions to get help. The meat chain isn't well understood by the general public or the media, and lends itself to a lot of stories like this. I get called by Bloomberg and Reuters fairly often to talk about meat stuff, and the reporters just aren't very well versed in the stuff, so a lot can get lost in translation in these stories too. 

Stories about the impending doom in the food supply would also get a lot of clicks.

[gmr548 16,701]

A herd immunity(without a depression) while keeping the vulnerable secluded seems to me like it’s the road we HAVE to take. I agreed with your take earlier about flattening the deaths. People who’d die within 18 months from now are dying in current time. Keeping those soon to be dead(in a normal life) is a goal but I don’t think we can go into a depression over it.

There are over 15 million filed unemployment claims and who knows how many more that haven't been able to file. The economic downturn is here - recession, depression, whatever you want to call it. Quarterly economic contraction used to define that is a lagging indicator. It can't be avoided. It will be worse the more widespread this pandemic is.

There is no realistic way to effectively quarantine the more vulnerable while the rest of society goes about its business. That's not a serious solution.

[Royalfan5 2,384]

5 minutes ago, Hate said:

Stories about the impending doom in the food supply would also get a lot of clicks.

Especially when people have seen empty coolers recently in the first wave of panic buying. 

[gmr548 16,701]

Stories about the impending doom in the food supply would also get a lot of clicks.

If it means I can get some fucking toiletries I'm all for it though.

[dcar00 14,974]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

There are over 15 million filed unemployment claims and who knows how many more that haven't been able to file. The economic downturn is here - recession, depression, whatever you want to call it. Quarterly economic contraction used to define that is a lagging indicator. It can't be avoided. It will be worse the more widespread this pandemic is.

There is no realistic way to effectively quarantine the more vulnerable while the rest of society goes about its business. That's not a serious solution.

 

correct.  you can quarantine those in assisted living places, etc.  you can't quarantine the general old people in the population if they are ambulatory and have car keys. they need to understand the risks.  my guess is they will do what they do and yes some of them will die, tragically.  we did this to prevent overrun of the medical system not to prevent people from potentially dying longer term.

IMHO, we prevented the country wide overrun(personnel, beds, supplies, etc) sans whatever the fuck happened in NY/NJ.

[VABuckeye 2,481]

1 hour ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

Animated tentacle porn saves nation from ravages of pandemic?

If animated tentacle porn is wrong I don't wanna be right.

Good band name.  Animated Tentacle Porn

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

3 hours ago, FondrenRoad said:

Yeah, Tucker gives a national political platform to a lot of people with fringe ideas if they support Trump's desires.  And, not surprisingly, you still don't have a real response. Look at the NYC statistics. And then explain how you believe all these people were going to die anyway. The numbers don't lie. 

Got back yo your hole. The doctor/ researcher is a staff member of Stanford University. I doubt they have any fringe folks on staff.   A  lot of people have or had  the virus, and haven't been tested. That was the point he was making. 

[Captainant 28,539]

8 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

IMHO, we prevented the country wide overrun(personnel, beds, supplies, etc) sans whatever the fuck happened in NY/NJ.

Well, we think we did. We don't have near the level of testing to have adequate data to make that claim. 

But hey, at least we'll get an acid test when we reopen the country on May 1 and we have until June to find out if the nation was still contagious or not. Here's hoping we don't throw away all of our sacrifices in the first round of social distancing

Edited April 15, 2020 by Captainant

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

2 hours ago, Bevo said:

I don't think so. I've been following this since the beginning and the WHO was using the total number of cases around the world including China (and Wuhan), and coming up with a 3-6% mortality rate. I was taking out the numbers from Wuhan and coming up with a mortality rate closer to 0.3%. It was pretty evident that Wuhan was an outlier and had a lot more cases than being reported. The media outlets have just followed the WHO and the CDC was doing the same thing as the WHO.

The number of people tested is far less than not tested.  That's inflatating mortality rates I believe.

[FondrenRoad 4,378]

Just now, Onboard 2.0 said:

Got back yo your hole. The doctor/ researcher is a staff member of Stanford University. I doubt they have any fringe folks on staff.   A  lot of people have or had  the virus, and haven't been tested. That was the point he was making. 

Nah. I'm gonna stay over here in your alternative facts space until you leave politics off this thread. 

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

2 hours ago, bolverk said:

Prior to interviewing that man, Tucker Carlson went on for 4 minutes throwing out random, small, unrepresentative preliminary studies to downplay the severity of the virus (while pretending not to) and stated:

"Maybe we could begin to think clearly again. Most of us want all of that badly, but do think our leaders want that? When you watch them, you begin to suspect they’re secretly enjoying our fear."

That's a 100% dog-whistle political statement.

Edit: And it plays directly toward the conspiracy-minded covidiots out there.

I didn't see that, and was that posted here ?

[Txzen 514]

19 hours ago, Shaddie said:

Pete confirmed he was bisexual in an interview around 2001. 

...or in 1980, for those that were paying attention to 'Rough Boys' on Empty Glass. 

[Royalfan5 2,384]

One last bit on the meat for today, pork cutout values were slightly lower with belly values down the most of anything, beef values were up decently, but still well of the recent high. If we can get some of the shackle space back next week, the current losses should be offset for the most part with heavier carcass weights. 

[Wally Fairway 5,676]

18 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

There are over 15 million filed unemployment claims and who knows how many more that haven't been able to file. The economic downturn is here - recession, depression, whatever you want to call it. Quarterly economic contraction used to define that is a lagging indicator. It can't be avoided. It will be worse the more widespread this pandemic is.

There is no realistic way to effectively quarantine the more vulnerable while the rest of society goes about its business. That's not a serious solution.

 

Those that are going to die, are going to die
Move along and let me get a haircut, go to the bar, the ball game and get my kids back to school (and outta my house)

[VABuckeye 2,481]

1 minute ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

The number of people tested is far less than not tested.  That's inflatating mortality rates I believe.

Eh.  I think that statement is a bit disingenuous.   More people have heart disease than people who've been proven to have heart disease.  The same can be said for COVID-19 testing as for any other illness.  Until it is severe enough you don't generally get tested for it.  The mortality rate is what it is.  People who've tested positve and those who died after testing positive.

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

4 minutes ago, FondrenRoad said:

Nah. I'm gonna stay over here in your alternative facts space until you leave politics off this thread. 

I haven't posted any political topics, but hey you live in your head all you like.

[VABuckeye 2,481]

COVID-19 got Surly???

[smoothlonghorn 85]

3 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

COVID-19 got Surly???

Nah, the site just took a short nap on the side of the road for a couple of hours near Bruceville-Eddy...

Edited April 15, 2020 by smoothlonghorn
Edit: great minds (kind of) think alike, utee94

[utee94 16,088]

Just now, VABuckeye said:

COVID-19 got Surly???

Nah, the site is just tired of all the assholes posting politics, and then all of the other assholes complaining about who is posting politics, and then the other assholes who are arguing that there are more people complaining about posting politics than are actually posting politics, none of them realizing that they're ALL a bunch of assholes fucking up this thread.

And the site is repaying this thread for its transgressions.

 

[Not that Bob 743]

4 minutes ago, smoothlonghorn said:

Nah, the site just took a short nap on the side of the road for a couple of hours near Bruceville-Eddy...

I did that one time. It was not a good day.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,873]

5 hours ago, Loco said:

Listen, people need a little Disney in their lives...  or a cruise to decompress!

Read that Disney is in a pickle over their timeshare vehicle DVC.  Apparently DVC runs at 95% occupancy year round and now they don't have the DVC rooms to accommodate all DVC owners in an abbreviated operating year.

[stork642 4,511]

15 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Nah, the site is just tired of all the assholes posting politics, and then all of the other assholes complaining about who is posting politics, and then the other assholes who are arguing that there are more people complaining about posting politics than are actually posting politics, none of them realizing that they're ALL a bunch of assholes fucking up this thread.

And the site is repaying this thread for its transgressions.

 

What about the asshole complaining about all of the other assholes?  

[bigup2dahorns 3,348]

[utee94 16,088]

Just now, stork642 said:

What about the asshole complaining about all of the other assholes?  

Those dicks are the worst.

[Deej 77,834]

1 minute ago, stork642 said:

What about the asshole complaining about all of the other assholes?  

[UDontKnow 10,572]

4 minutes ago, bigup2dahorns said:

 

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3,873]

5 hours ago, dcar00 said:

Standford Medical is fringe..now I've heard it all.

Do you have a lot of issues telling the difference between Stanford and Cal Berkeley? Their politics aren't lock step at all.

[gmr548 16,701]

Those that are going to die, are going to die
Move along and let me get a haircut, go to the bar, the ball game and get my kids back to school (and outta my house)

Well yes, you're coming off as a massive, entitled, self-centered prick, but at least you embrace it enthusiastically. So there's that.

correct.  you can quarantine those in assisted living places, etc.  you can't quarantine the general old people in the population if they are ambulatory and have car keys. they need to understand the risks.  my guess is they will do what they do and yes some of them will die, tragically.  we did this to prevent overrun of the medical system not to prevent people from potentially dying longer term.
IMHO, we prevented the country wide overrun(personnel, beds, supplies, etc) sans whatever the fuck happened in NY/NJ.

Uh, if there's anything proven beyond a reasonable doubt with this thing, it's that you can't quarantine a nursing home. But yes, general population even less so. That's my point to the "just seal off the olds" crowd. Doesn't work that way here in the real world.

We did this to prevent an overrun of the medical system. We also did it to prevent deaths because those two things are one in the same. Keeping hospitals stable protects medical workers and the patients that do end up in need of hospitalcare. It avoids pointless death from care rationing. And it protects the working age population by lowering their exposure, and ultimately, count. Which is significant because even 0.5 percent of however many tens of millions would get it is still a huge body count that - and people seem to ignore this - would have a very real and very large economic toll.

It appears to have worked somewhat well, fortunately. The threat of that is not gone. If we rush to relax restrictions without proper planing and mitigation measures in place, we are going right back to staring down the same barrel of the same gun.

I'm not suggesting we all stay at home for the next two years. No one is. But we need to see a more definitive downward trend in the current wave, and we have to have be prepared to manage the next outbreak like South Korea, before we start loosening things up. We aren't there yet.

[EuroHorn 3,295]

5 minutes ago, bigup2dahorns said:

 

He’s delivering that box to Shaka. 

[Deej 77,834]

5 minutes ago, bigup2dahorns said:

 

Last time he was wearing a safety vest like that it didn't end too well. 

[gmr548 16,701]

Burnt eggs in every box!

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

7 hours ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

Because it's not the no politics thread, it's the safe space thread for one side of the political spectrum. The counterpart is in CR.

The economy is gone in the short to medium term. Tens of millions unemployed and many consumers aren't going to be out in droves even if all local, state, and federal restrictions were lifted May 1, which they won't be.

So the deaths vs economy choice isn't real. You can have a hive spike in deaths with an economic downturn or you can have an economic downturn that will have a stronger recovery with a significantly less ravaged healthcare system and population. That's the choice.
 

 

Yeah, no it's no politics because posters like you fuck up the discussions.  Politics aren't being discussed period, but damned if you're not determined to bring it up......again. 

Waaaaaaah I can't talk politics.... why won't anybody listen to me..... waaaah......politics....... politics....

Feel free to not tune in, you've got the Covid 19 political talk thread where you can wallow till your heart's content.

Edited April 16, 2020 by Onboard 2.0

[achooloco 1,086]

8 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Other than China's fake numbers, Japan's suppressed numbers and SK's "success" numbers, are there any solid numbers from any of the states in that area we can use for guidance?  Places who conceivably are a month or more ahead of us?  Or is Italy/Spain still our most forward-looking, relatively honest dataset?

still catching up but what is wrong/dishonest with the SK numbers?

[Message Board User 12,405]

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,984]

 

Things that make you say hmmm....

[Serak The Preparer 3,484]

12 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Shit, the B-52's look like musical geniuses by comparison. Only took 51 tries!

[bolverk 30,330]

3 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I didn't see that, and was that posted here ?

Yes. That was a direct quote from TC himself in the video that was posted. I paused after each sentence to type it out.

(Sorry for the delayed response. I've been busy with a webinar, a conference call, and a supply run since last posting.)

[Captainant 28,539]

Haven't seen anything on surly yet about the new data coming in from France on HCQ treatment for COVID-19, but it looks like it's ineffective against Rona at the hospitalization stage. From the abstract:

This study included 181 patients with SARS-CoV-2 pneumonia; 84 received HCQ within 48 hours of admission (HCQ group) and 97 did not (no-HCQ group). Initial severity was well balanced between the groups. In the weighted analysis, 20.2% patients in the HCQ group were transferred to the ICU or died within 7 days vs 22.1% in the no-HCQ group (16 vs 21 events, relative risk [RR] 0.91, 95% CI 0.47-1.80). In the HCQ group, 2.8% of the patients died within 7 days vs 4.6% in the no-HCQ group (3 vs 4 events, RR 0.61, 95% CI 0.13-2.89), and 27.4% and 24.1%, respectively, developed acute respiratory distress syndrome within 7 days (24 vs 23 events, RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.65-2.00). Eight patients receiving HCQ (9.5%) experienced electrocardiogram modifications requiring HCQ discontinuation. Interpretation These results do not support the use of HCQ in patients hospitalised for documented SARS-CoV-2-positive hypoxic pneumonia.

Edited April 15, 2020 by Captainant

[UTGrad98 2,341]

34 minutes ago, achooloco said:

still catching up but what is wrong/dishonest with the SK numbers?

[MissingInAction 25,557]

7 hours ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Well tell me you at least saved me a line then.

We can search the rug for nuggets.

[freyguy 4,368]

5 hours ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

Animated tentacle porn saves nation from ravages of pandemic?

This guy gets it

[achooloco 1,086]

46 minutes ago, achooloco said:

still catching up but what is wrong/dishonest with the SK numbers?

 

11 minutes ago, UTGrad98 said:

shit, wasn't trying to quote myself but still lost. China is obviously bullshit for a number of reasons, and japan seems to have wanted to not cancel the olympics so they lied until they couldn't. From following this thread, seems like SK never shut down and got their shit together on wide spread testing for a variety of reasons, but they're a tiny ass densely populated country so hard to compare to us. Haven't seen anything to suggest SK "success" numbers are not "forward-looking, [or] relatively honest" but I might have missed that or misinterpreted that post.

[Txzen 514]

For those who don't want to sit through 4 minutes of Tucker talking before you get to the the actual guest (and if you don't think Tucker's preamble that 'fear is hurting people' isn't political, well...) : Jay Bhattacharya, Stanford. He also authored an article in the WSJ recently. 

I'm not saying that we shouldn't look at the death rate with some skepticism until we know more. But there's something at the center of his argument that 'what if it's only 1/1000 who die, we've overreacted' that misses the point. 

I think it is likely true that the extent of people exposed, infected and asymptomatic is higher than we'll ever know, given the paucity of testing. The fact that the first evidence of Covid infections and deaths in California were in the Vacaville-Sacramento corridor, and not SF, LA or SD, and from people with no association of foreign travel suggests community spreading. It was, and likely has been, very widespread. That certainly means that the death rate is lower than initially thought, certainly lower than some of the dire estimates in the early days.

Right now, the deaths per capita in the Netherlands, Belgium, Spain, Italy, UK and France already eclipse the ~0.01% per capita deaths from the common flu. If you assume everyone got infected in those countries, the death rate of 0.02 - 0.04% is higher than the flu, happened in a short time, and has proved to be disastrous for some areas in that resources were totally overwhelmed. 

But not everyone has been exposed to it, and we ensured that (and the low death rate) by cratering the world economy and telling everyone to stay home. Also, unlike the flu, this is more contagious, widespread, and deadly (even Bhattacharya agreed with that) and there's no vaccine. 

Spoiler

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by Txzen

[gmr548 16,701]

Yeah, no it's no politics because posters like you fuck up the discussions.  Politics aren't being discussed period, but damned if you're not determined to bring it up......again. 
Waaaaaaah I can't talk politics.... why won't anybody listen to me..... waaaah......politics....... politics....
Feel free to not tune in, you've got the Code 19 political talk thread where you can wallow till your hearts content.

Lol imagine typing this and thinking it's someone else whining.