Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[XYZ 2154]

52 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

Crazy plan

Every team rents 2 hotels for the year and charters one plane with same crew.

Teams live in same hotel all year. With same chefs, house keepers, hotel staffs. Road trips every team uses same hotel. NFL pays to keep hotels and stadiums as clean as hospital. Staff at stadium and hotel monitored daily for temperature and wears PPE.

Cool. So the chefs and housekeepers are locked in the hotel all year? And the team as well? And they train in the hotel? Asking for a friend.

[Anastasis 23393]

Well this is fun.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.09.034942v1

Analysis of the mutation dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 reveals the spread history and emergence of RBD mutant with lower ACE2 binding affinity

Monitoring the mutation dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 is critical for the development of effective approaches to contain the pathogen. By analyzing 106 SARS-CoV-2 and 39 SARS genome sequences, we provided direct genetic evidence that SARS-CoV-2 has a much lower mutation rate than SARS. Minimum Evolution phylogeny analysis revealed the putative original status of SARS-CoV-2 and the early-stage spread history. The discrepant phylogenies for the spike protein and its receptor binding domain proved a previously reported structural rearrangement prior to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Despite that we found the spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 is particularly more conserved, we identified a mutation that leads to weaker receptor binding capability, which concerns a SARS-CoV-2 sample collected on 27th January 2020 from India. This represents the first report of a significant SARS-CoV-2 mutant, and raises the alarm that the ongoing vaccine development may become futile in future epidemic if more mutations were identified.

 

 

May I also add, Fuck China. 

[B00M 6280]

1 minute ago, XYZ said:

Cool. So the chefs and housekeepers are locked in the hotel all year? And the team as well? And they train in the hotel? Asking for a friend.

I'm sure they'll all love their new prisons and we won't see any tweets comparing it to slavery

[UT_OB1 2200]

56 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

Crazy plan

Every team rents 2 hotels for the year and charters one plane with same crew.

Teams live in same hotel all year. With same chefs, house keepers, hotel staffs. Road trips every team uses same hotel. NFL pays to keep hotels and stadiums as clean as hospital. Staff at stadium and hotel monitored daily for temperature and wears PPE.

To add to that, why even travel at that point?  Just pick a city with turf and play all the games at the same stadium. 

[InkaUtexas 25496]

Just now, UT_OB1 said:

To add to that, why even travel at that point?  Just pick a city with turf and play all the games at the same stadium. 

Vegas since hotels are all empty. 

[SydneyCarton 47846]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Well this is fun.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.09.034942v1

Analysis of the mutation dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 reveals the spread history and emergence of RBD mutant with lower ACE2 binding affinity

Monitoring the mutation dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 is critical for the development of effective approaches to contain the pathogen. By analyzing 106 SARS-CoV-2 and 39 SARS genome sequences, we provided direct genetic evidence that SARS-CoV-2 has a much lower mutation rate than SARS. Minimum Evolution phylogeny analysis revealed the putative original status of SARS-CoV-2 and the early-stage spread history. The discrepant phylogenies for the spike protein and its receptor binding domain proved a previously reported structural rearrangement prior to the emergence of SARS-CoV-2. Despite that we found the spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 is particularly more conserved, we identified a mutation that leads to weaker receptor binding capability, which concerns a SARS-CoV-2 sample collected on 27th January 2020 from India. This represents the first report of a significant SARS-CoV-2 mutant, and raises the alarm that the ongoing vaccine development may become futile in future epidemic if more mutations were identified.

 

 

May I also add, Fuck China. 

That’s sucks, but reading through it, it sounds like it’s mutating into a weaker strand. Which many people expected if it mutates it would get weaker. So, six to one, half dozen the other? 

[Somnio 751]

On 4/1/2020 at 11:14 AM, Somnio said:

March summary of Covid-19:

World

3/1/2020

Confirmed cases - 88,585

Deaths - 3,050 

CFR - 3.4%

3/31/2020

Confirmed cases - 858,355

Deaths - 42,309

CFR - 4.9%

 

United States

3/1/2020

Confirmed cases - 75

Deaths - 1

CFR - 1.3%

3/31/2020

Confirmed cases - 188,530

Deaths - 4,053

CFR - 2.1%

 

World

4/15/2020

Confirmed cases - 2,086,477

Deaths - 138,619

CFR - 6.6%

 

United States

4/15/2020

Confirmed cases - 648,148

Deaths - 32,588

CFR - 5.0%

 

 

[Anastasis 23393]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

That’s sucks, but reading through it, it sounds like it’s mutating into a weaker strand. Which many people expected if it mutates it would get weaker. So, six to one, half dozen the other? 

It's a pre-print and the english is not the best.  Wouldn't be surprised at all if this is some bullshit over extension of the finding.

Another notable finding in this study corresponds to the identification of an amino acid mutation in the RBD of S protein 282 in SARS-CoV-2. Mostly importantly, we showed that this amino acid mutation is very likely to cause a reduced binding 283 affinity to human ACE2 receptor. The RBD of S protein binds to a receptor in host cells, and is responsible for the first 284 step of CoV infection. The receptor binding affinity of RBD directly affects virus transmission rate. Thus, it has been the 285 major target for antiviral vaccine and therapeutic development such as SARS (8). Despite the S protein gene seems to be 286 more conserved than the other protein-encoding genes in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, our study provide direct evidences 287 that a mutated version of SARS-CoV-2 S protein with varied transmission rate may have already emerged. Based on the 288 close relationship of SARS-CoV-2 to SARS, current vaccine and drug development for SARS-CoV-2 has also focused on 289 the S protein and its human binding receptor ACE2 (7, 24). Thus, the observation in this study raised the alarm that SARS290 CoV-2 mutation with varied epitope profile could arise at any time, which means current vaccine development against 291 SARS-CoV-2 is at great risk of becoming futile. Because the receptor recognition mechanism seems to be highly conserved 292 between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, which have been proved to share the common human cell receptor ACE2. One 293 suggestion for the next step of therapeutic development is probably to focus on the identification of potential human ACE2 294 receptor blocker, as suggested in a recent commentary (7). This approach will avoid the above-mentioned challenge faced 295 by vaccine development. 

[workswithseed 2035]

39 minutes ago, RPM said:

Nope. Decatur is 76426 and has about 12,000 ppl. It's probably some aggy working in DFW that brought it home.

Ahh.. you moved. Aggy is really good at being aggy, so you're probably right.

[Digdogger 1343]

10 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

To add to that, why even travel at that point?  Just pick a city with turf and play all the games at the same stadium. 

That’s a long Sunday. 

[Johnny Sack 8397]

The point of shutting down was to flatten curve so our healthcare infrastructure wouldn’t get overrun.  If we can start opening up and the risk of not overrunning our hospitals and providers isn’t great, that’s when we should do it.  

[NorthLoop 14083]

3 minutes ago, Digdogger said:

That’s a long Sunday. 

Texas UIL says "hell we could do it at Mesquite Stadium." 

[SydneyCarton 47846]

10 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

It's a pre-print and the english is not the best.  Wouldn't be surprised at all if this is some bullshit over extension of the finding.

Another notable finding in this study corresponds to the identification of an amino acid mutation in the RBD of S protein 282 in SARS-CoV-2. Mostly importantly, we showed that this amino acid mutation is very likely to cause a reduced binding 283 affinity to human ACE2 receptor. The RBD of S protein binds to a receptor in host cells, and is responsible for the first 284 step of CoV infection. The receptor binding affinity of RBD directly affects virus transmission rate. Thus, it has been the 285 major target for antiviral vaccine and therapeutic development such as SARS (8). Despite the S protein gene seems to be 286 more conserved than the other protein-encoding genes in the SARS-CoV-2 genome, our study provide direct evidences 287 that a mutated version of SARS-CoV-2 S protein with varied transmission rate may have already emerged. Based on the 288 close relationship of SARS-CoV-2 to SARS, current vaccine and drug development for SARS-CoV-2 has also focused on 289 the S protein and its human binding receptor ACE2 (7, 24). Thus, the observation in this study raised the alarm that SARS290 CoV-2 mutation with varied epitope profile could arise at any time, which means current vaccine development against 291 SARS-CoV-2 is at great risk of becoming futile. Because the receptor recognition mechanism seems to be highly conserved 292 between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV, which have been proved to share the common human cell receptor ACE2. One 293 suggestion for the next step of therapeutic development is probably to focus on the identification of potential human ACE2 294 receptor blocker, as suggested in a recent commentary (7). This approach will avoid the above-mentioned challenge faced 295 by vaccine development. 

Yeah. Still reading that as bad news but good news. 

[atomheartbevo 89406]

On 4/15/2020 at 9:42 AM, Liquor and Poker said:

Other than China's fake numbers, Japan's suppressed numbers and SK's "success" numbers, are there any solid numbers from any of the states in that area we can use for guidance?  Places who conceivably are a month or more ahead of us?  Or is Italy/Spain still our most forward-looking, relatively honest dataset?

Probably have to look at hospitalization rates here in the US to get a feel for things.  Can't get them here in Austin for most hospitals (the parent companies don't think they need to release that info), but in many areas we can.

[bluto 4883]

Texas UIL says "hell we could do it at Mesquite Stadium." 

Mesquite memorial stadium you unpatriotic asshole. Put some respect on that Eiffel Tower!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[closetojumping 62213]

42 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

I generally agree, but aiming to be Arkansas in any way does cause one to reevaluate.

 

 

I posrepped the joke, but when looking at it seriously, I assume a whole bunch of smarter people than me have to be viewing it as a case study for their jurisdictions. 

19 minutes ago, B00M said:

You got HFM as an adult? Your immune system sounds compromised bruh. To be safe, you should start gargling whiskey/hand soap/bleach immediately

Changing diapers and feeding babies, I don't even want to know how I caught it, but my immune system is fine. Kids bring sickness home constantly, especially when you have a house full of them. I think I've tested positive for strep more than 10 times in the last decade and didn't even realize I was carrying for most of those. My first kid of the new batch spent his first year going to daycare. I think he's been sick once in the last 9 years. It seems like that rubs off on parents with small children too. 

Anyway, I wouldn't wish HFM on my worst enemies. Scorching high temperature for days leading to bouts of absurd disorientation and dizziness. My throat felt like I'd drank boiling water. Swallowing became an act of bravery. And then scabs all over hands and feet like a fucking leper. Nope nope nope. I hear Chicken Pox is way more horrible for adults than children as well. 

[atomheartbevo 89406]

On 4/15/2020 at 9:57 AM, Brisketexan said:

2 -- because we don't have any real solution right now (reliable treatment or a vaccine), even though we may relax some of the current restrictions, many of them will remain fully or partially in place.  Don't expect large gatherings (sporting events, concerts, large university lecture classes) to happen anytime soon -- like not until 2021.

We have a neighbor who teaches at UT.  They are very certain they won't be teaching classes in-person this fall and it'll be online only.  They didn't come out and explicitly say that "such-and-such told us that we will be teaching online this fall", but they made it clear that it was going to be online for most/all of the fall.

[Iceman 2639]

21 minutes ago, Digdogger said:

That’s a long Sunday. 

so were the last 4...

[Sbbruin 21707]

2 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

 pork values up solidly this AM, but well off the recent highs with bellies leading. 

You mean the same pork bellies that are used to make bacon, like you may find in a bacon and lettuce and tomato sandwich?

[usmc0331horn 934]

Upper midwest white supremacy talk not going away.

[atomheartbevo 89406]

7 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Kids bring sickness home constantly, especially when you have a house full of them.

I've been sick more times in the past 7 years than I had in the previous 17.  Strep, HFM, and even mono.  And in the case of those last three, my doctor was like "oh, it was probably way worse for your kid than you" and the whole time I'm thinking "no, I'm petting sure catching it in my 40s was way worse. Especially mono."  Mono was up there with walking pneumonia for me. 

[UT_OB1 2200]

25 minutes ago, Digdogger said:

That’s a long Sunday. 

Spread em out. Not like we’ve got anything better to watch Wednesday nights. I’m guessing we won’t have any new shows that weren’t already filmed. 

[dcar00 14030]

36 minutes ago, Somnio said:

World

4/15/2020

Confirmed cases - 2,086,477

Deaths - 138,619

CFR - 6.6%

 

United States

4/15/2020

Confirmed cases - 648,148

Deaths - 32,588

CFR - 5.0%

 

 

1point9 has US at 665,443 cases and 29,571 dead   CCFR of 4.4 so far today

[dcar00 14030]

27 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

The point of shutting down was to flatten curve so our healthcare infrastructure wouldn’t get overrun.  If we can start opening up and the risk of not overrunning our hospitals and providers isn’t great, that’s when we should do it.  

apparently what you don't realize is that the point moved.

[Js1 85095]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We have a neighbor who teaches at UT.  They are very certain they won't be teaching classes in-person this fall and it'll be online only.  They didn't come out and explicitly say that "such-and-such told us that we will be teaching online this fall", but they made it clear that it was going to be online for most/all of the fall.

And this is why I don't believe we will play football in the fall.

How do universities justify keeping athletes on campus when regular students are doing it online?  

[Somnio 751]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

1point9 has US at 665,443 cases and 29,571 dead   CCFR of 4.4 so far today

I should have quoted the source of the data posted was Worldometers.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

[Trey3216 15325]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

And this is why I don't believe we will play football in the fall.

How do universities justify keeping athletes on campus when regular students are doing it online?  

They can’t.  That would ensure the NCAA being taken to court and losing their amateur status. 

[Poe It Up 126]

11 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I posrepped the joke, but when looking at it seriously, I assume a whole bunch of smarter people than me have to be viewing it as a case study for their jurisdictions. 

Changing diapers and feeding babies, I don't even want to know how I caught it, but my immune system is fine. Kids bring sickness home constantly, especially when you have a house full of them. I think I've tested positive for strep more than 10 times in the last decade and didn't even realize I was carrying for most of those. My first kid of the new batch spent his first year going to daycare. I think he's been sick once in the last 9 years. It seems like that rubs off on parents with small children too. 

Anyway, I wouldn't wish HFM on my worst enemies. Scorching high temperature for days leading to bouts of absurd disorientation and dizziness. My throat felt like I'd drank boiling water. Swallowing became an act of bravery. And then scabs all over hands and feet like a fucking leper. Nope nope nope. I hear Chicken Pox is way more horrible for adults than children as well. 

Shit, my 2 year old caught HFM last year and it looked like the Black Plague. Fingernails and toenails falling off, sores all over his body, etc.  I picked him up to comfort him and he sneezed directly in my mouth; i didn’t sleep very well that night. Thankfully I dodged that bullet, but damn, you poor bastard. 

[South Austin 52127]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

How do universities justify ____________ for athletes when regular students are _____________?  

Here is your answer.

[RPM 26215]

36 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

Ahh.. you moved.

Nope. Never lived in Decatur, just live near there. Follow a rock truck, you'll find me.

[kevwun 15617]

5 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

Shit, my 2 year old caught HFM last year and it looked like the Black Plague. Fingernails and toenails falling off, sores all over his body, etc.  I picked him up to comfort him and he sneezed directly in my mouth; i didn’t sleep very well that night. Thankfully I dodged that bullet, but damn, you poor bastard. 

I had that a few years ago because I unfortunately never had it as a kid.  It fucking sucked.  I could barely walk for a couple of days because of the blisters on my feet in addition to feeling like I had the flu.  I ended up shedding all of the skin from the bottom of my feet.

Edited April 16, 2020 by kevwun

[SydneyCarton 47846]

Many university presidents and ADs, including bowls the if I remember correctly, flat out told Mike Pence that there’s no college football if students aren’t on campus. 

[Your Mom 4793]

College football ain’t happening at all in 2020. NFL maybe a partial spring season but not in the fall. And there’s no way the players and coaches would sign on with leaving their families for a while season to live I. A freaking hotel. Some would go for that but not nearly enough to make it work. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Yeah, if I knew that something that is a fantasy based on available information were true, it'd change the outlook.

Here in reality, there appears to have been no significant progress on therapeutic treatment. Vaccine by summer 21? Pharma's PR people, who are paid handsomely to put their employers in the best possible light, are saying it will be longer than that.

Mass antibody testing, maybe, I honestly don't know enough. But we've tested roughly one percent of the population for the virus in three months. This is a big country. A big world. Mass testing requires a scale we have not remotely approached. Getting there in six months seems... A bit rosy.

Dumb question..is it considered accurate if a family of 4 sends just 1 person to get an antibody test ? I mean I highly doubt those of us families with multiple kids under 5 would not need more than 1 test for the entire household. That’s eliminate a lot of the “tests needed”

[dcar00 14030]

4 minutes ago, Somnio said:

I should have quoted the source of the data posted was Worldometers.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

they must be including the 4000 maybes.

[closetojumping 62213]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

they must be including the 4000 maybes.

Michigan has started "trueing up" their death tolls by reviewing death certificates and assigning untested people to corona if they had "matching symptoms". Worldometers footnoted that that they were counting those in the Michigan counts this week and going forward. Basically, if you die at home with a cough, corona, Mr. 85 year old. I don't really even know what I make of these developments other than it makes unreliable data flatly fucking useless. 

[Royalfan5 2348]

19 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

You mean the same pork bellies that are used to make bacon, like you may find in a bacon and lettuce and tomato sandwich?

Yes

[atomheartbevo 89406]

23 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

The point of shutting down was to flatten curve so our healthcare infrastructure wouldn’t get overrun.  If we can start opening up and the risk of not overrunning our hospitals and providers isn’t great, that’s when we should do it.  

That would be great, but we have a lot of dipshits who would automatically assume that even slightly starting to open things back up means they can throw that kegger they've had on their mind for months, or to go shopping all over town or whatever.  Witness the UT students still flying to Mexico for spring break, or the Florida spring breakers, when state/federal officials were putting out the messages that such things were bad.

When we start opening up, we are going to have to conversations about about those folks.   We might also have to do the temperature check at stores, etc. like they do in other parts of the world, and there might have to be fines handed out.

I am impressed at the number of folks are are actually using masks when they are out and about in situations where it would.  I thought there would be a lot more resistance to it.

[atomheartbevo 89406]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And this is why I don't believe we will play football in the fall.

How do universities justify keeping athletes on campus when regular students are doing it online?  

The same way they justify ridiculous salaries for mediocre performance on the field.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Michigan has started "trueing up" their death tolls by reviewing death certificates and assigning untested people to corona if they had "matching symptoms". Worldometers footnoted that that they were counting those in the Michigan counts this week and going forward. Basically, if you die at home with a cough, corona, Mr. 85 year old. I don't really even know what I make of these developments other than it makes unreliable data flatly fucking useless. 

Yea agreed. Almost might be time to just look at recoveries

[dcar00 14030]

thought this was funny from an article. Murray is a doctor on the task force that interfaces with IHME on the model.  supposedly the model will be lowered 

this could read as 'well we thought the dumbass rubes in the South would continue to have huge revivals and church services, but it turns out they didn't.  we don't know why but we are happy the bumpkins stayed away from each other.'

This model was/is a complete sham.

Murray also cited “mobility data” from various groups, including Google, showing southern states implementing “more social distancing than expected," which has helped their forecasts for a lesser spread of the virus.

“And that may be having a benefit and so we may see smaller numbers [of deaths] for a number of the states in the South.”

Meanwhile the smart northern folk in NYC and De-twah are getting hammered...

Edited April 16, 2020 by dcar00

[RDCanecutter 26249]

2 hours ago, rage-a-holic said:

Can someone post a link to the "Shit we're doing to entertain our kids during lockdown" thread? Can't remember the actual name and I got some shit to donate.

I gave my kid a couple of beers the other night. He held up pretty well. Which is good, because he's 31.

[dcar00 14030]

9 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Michigan has started "trueing up" their death tolls by reviewing death certificates and assigning untested people to corona if they had "matching symptoms". Worldometers footnoted that that they were counting those in the Michigan counts this week and going forward. Basically, if you die at home with a cough, corona, Mr. 85 year old. I don't really even know what I make of these developments other than it makes unreliable data flatly fucking useless. 

yep. its too bad no one could just play it straight.  the numbers aren't there so why not put covid.  the person already died.  they still have the estimated case  count coming to figure out what they want the IFR to be.

will be interesting to see what the new IHME model shows

[InkaUtexas 25496]

38 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We have a neighbor who teaches at UT.  They are very certain they won't be teaching classes in-person this fall and it'll be online only.  They didn't come out and explicitly say that "such-and-such told us that we will be teaching online this fall", but they made it clear that it was going to be online for most/all of the fall.

And this sucks for the HS Seniors this year. My kid is re-thinking her school due to this. The cost of GWU vs. an in-state school is pretty substantial. She emailed GW about her dorm fees and they said go ahead, pay and then if things change we can reimburse. 

[workswithseed 2035]

20 minutes ago, RPM said:

Nope. Never lived in Decatur, just live near there. Follow a rock truck, you'll find me.

That would be too many to follow, and unfortunately I don't live in Texas any.

[Sbbruin 21707]

14 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

Yes

[dcar00 14030]

17 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

That would be great, but we have a lot of dipshits who would automatically assume that even slightly starting to open things back up means they can throw that kegger they've had on their mind for months, or to go shopping all over town or whatever.  Witness the UT students still flying to Mexico for spring break, or the Florida spring breakers, when state/federal officials were putting out the messages that such things were bad.

When we start opening up, we are going to have to conversations about about those folks.   We might also have to do the temperature check at stores, etc. like they do in other parts of the world, and there might have to be fines handed out.

I am impressed at the number of folks are are actually using masks when they are out and about in situations where it would.  I thought there would be a lot more resistance to it.

I really don't think 95% of people care about masks.  I'm not wearing one walking around or if I'm not near anyone but I will in a store. most of the grocery stores are going to require them anyway

[Johnny Sack 8397]

43 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We have a neighbor who teaches at UT.  They are very certain they won't be teaching classes in-person this fall and it'll be online only.  They didn't come out and explicitly say that "such-and-such told us that we will be teaching online this fall", but they made it clear that it was going to be online for most/all of the fall.

The admins and professors at public universities are getting paid either way.  They have zero incentive to open it back up.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

double post

Edited April 16, 2020 by Johnny Sack

[SydneyCarton 47846]

17 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Yea agreed. Almost might be time to just look at recoveries

Which we also can’t do because testing.