Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[dcar00 14035]

1 minute ago, Moby Ric said:

Agreed.  I doubt you see this from large state Universities.  Mostly smaller private schools.

yes my point was somewhat in jest but I won't be surprised if it starts being discussed

[dcar00 14035]

2 minutes ago, Somnio said:

If you don't like the data fuck off.  You can put me on ignore if it bothers you.

good point..kind of hard to call it data at this point though.

[Moby Ric 2058]

Just now, dcar00 said:

yes my point was somewhat in jest but I won't be surprised if it starts being discussed

Problem is this.  Test are being cancelled, and when they cancel them they tell you that you are first in line for the next one.   Well the next one also needs other kids to get in.  So there is a backlog and everyone will be cramming to get in to the August and October testing and so many seats.  With 6 weeks to get your scores out and with deadlines of applicants being in December it is creating a problem.  It is either test more often to make up the backlog, or ignore the test.  Just a different world right now.

[Hmmm 155]

6 minutes ago, RayDog said:

No bats are sold at that market.

i'm sure you're correct.  it was an assumption i made based on the video you posted that says the Wuhan lab is "280 meters to be exact from the Huanan seafood market where it was originally claimed to have originated".  

care to clarify?

Edited April 16, 2020 by Hmmm

[SA-KC_Horn 1293]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

I really don't think 95% of people care about masks.  I'm not wearing one walking around or if I'm not near anyone but I will in a store. most of the grocery stores are going to require them anyway

That sounds like El Paso, I'm here for a business trip and the majority don't mask up. 

Target and Walmart required a mask though. 

[gmr548 16503]

Patient zero may have been an employee at a Wuhan lab studying Corona viruses in bats. This seems a more likely source than a virus in a wild bat several hundred miles away somehow finding its way to Wuhan.

Does it?

Who knows how many broken security/containment protocols broken and/or failed at a BSL 4, but the authoritarian Chinese government initially says "Eh yeah I know there was that thing at the lab, but fuck it, let's do Lunar New Year, we tryina get fucked up."

This despite logically knowing what it was capeable of you some extent, because it came from their lab, and no rational motivation to ignore it... That sounds more likely than some shit nature tends to do every once in a while?

[0xdeadbeef 1626]

The new Travis County Number is.....1029.  Up only 52 from yesterday.  Not bad.

The last three days have seen increases if 52, 77, and 44. Please that the bigger jump yesterday wasn't repeated.

 

Edit - What the hell are people in Pflugerville doing? They have the 4th most cases in that zip code. 

78748 - 80 cases

78741 - 71 cases

78744 - 71 cases

78660 - 57 cases Pfun town USA

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by 0xdeadbeef

[Somnio 751]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

good point..kind of hard to call it data at this point though.

It's certainly not perfect, but it's all we have at the moment.

People should be able to use some discernment, and realize that while the data is far from impeccable, it is still worthy of observation.

[RayDog 682]

2 minutes ago, Hmmm said:

i'm sure you're correct.  it was an assumption i made based on the video you posted that says, the Wuhan lab is "280 meters to be exact from the Huanan seafood market where it was originally claimed to have originated".  

care to clarify?

The CCP decided to say it was the wet market even though the person they identified as patient zero had never been there and no bats are sold there. 

The lab actually went to caves in southern China 1000 km or so away to collect the virus specimens closest to SARS cov2. And then they manipulated the viruses so they would spread in other mammals they could study in the lab.

The lab was also caught using bsl 2 instead of bsl 4 gear while studying the virus.

[akhornfan 4]

16 minutes ago, Somnio said:

If you don't like the data fuck off.  You can put me on ignore if it bothers you.

You should at least start using CCFR like everyone else 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, RayDog said:

The CCP decided to say it was the wet market even though the person they identified as patient zero had never been there and no bats are sold there. 

The lab actually went to caves in southern China 1000 km or so away to collect the virus specimens closest to SARS cov2. And then they manipulated the viruses so they would spread in other mammals they could study in the lab.

The lab was also caught using bsl 2 instead of bsl 4 gear while studying the virus.

No way, a facility in China cutting corners ??!  I thought they just did that with the consumer goods they sold to the rest of the world.

[Bevo Num1 1004]

Dusty bandanas is a euphemism for women in an over-forties nightclub.

I thought those were dusty queefs.

[Somnio 751]

2 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

You should at least start using CCFR like everyone else 

Why?  Because the lower CFR makes you feel better?

You know there are a lot more deaths than reported as well, right? 

Should we guess how many cases we think there are, and guess how many deaths there are, and use that number instead? 

Feel free to do so if you want.  I won't feel the need to quote you, and tell you how ridiculous I think you are.

[TxEx84 375]

On 4/7/2020 at 8:52 AM, Armybrat said:

https://nypost.com/2020/04/16/all-we-know-about-wuhan-lab-that-may-have-unleashed-covid-19/

Quote

The Wuhan lab was receiving aid from US organizations, including a laboratory at the University of Texas Medical Branch, but the cable suggested the US should provide additional support because the research was so dangerous.  

😳

[gmr548 16503]

4 minutes ago, TxEx84 said:

😳

If we can link this to Shaka Smart I'm on board.

[Dbeasy 14966]

I'm not sure.  But if I was I would be sure.  So perhaps not.

[Shaddie 1638]

19 minutes ago, SA-KC_Horn said:

That sounds like El Paso, I'm here for a business trip and the majority don't mask up. 

Target and Walmart required a mask though. 

Same here in Albuquerque. I still wear mask and gloves going to grocery store. Being on the road I am choosing Homewood suites so I can cook for dinner. Eating lunch in the car every day sucks.  At least I don’t think I am eating as much. 

[akhornfan 4]

4 minutes ago, Somnio said:

Why?  Because the lower CFR makes you feel better?

You know there are a lot more deaths than reported as well, right? 

Should we guess how many cases we think there are, and guess how many deaths there are, and use that number instead? 

Feel free to do so if you want.  I won't feel the need to quote you, and tell you how ridiculous I think you are.

It’s not an accurate reflection of the intent of the CFR figure. We don’t know cases by a magnitude and we obviously don’t have a perfect grasp on deaths. However, CFR is intended to predicted the likelihood of death if you contract the illness and the numbers you’re using for that are wrong. If you want to put the data out, go ahead, but take the care to label it correctly. 

[SA-KC_Horn 1293]

6 minutes ago, Shaddie said:

Same here in Albuquerque. I still wear mask and gloves going to grocery store. Being on the road I am choosing Homewood suites so I can cook for dinner. Eating lunch in the car every day sucks.  At least I don’t think I am eating as much. 

I'm maxing out my meal per diem. Hell I just saw today on the menu for BJs restaurant that beer to-go was 120oz for $20, I guess they do t want beer to go bad like in Portland. 

 

Edited April 16, 2020 by SA-KC_Horn

[Somnio 751]

2 minutes ago, akhornfan said:

It’s not an accurate reflection of the intent of the CFR figure. We don’t know cases by a magnitude and we obviously don’t have a perfect grasp on deaths. However, CFR is intended to predicted the likelihood of death if you contract the illness and the numbers you’re using for that are wrong. If you want to put the data out, go ahead, but take the care to label it correctly. 

This is a Longhorns sports forum, bro.  I don't need to take the care to do shit.

Nobody is basing anything off what I post here unless they're fucking stupid.

I think we all know to take any and all data from any source with a grain of salt.

 

[Armybrat 40735]

16 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

If we can link this to Shaka Smart I'm on board.

Probably Plonsky too.

[utee94 15745]

7 minutes ago, Somnio said:

 

Nobody is basing anything off what I post here unless they're fucking stupid.

 

 

Well, I mean... you said it.

 

[Somnio 751]

Just now, utee94 said:

Well, I mean... you said it.

 

The truth set me free!

[Captainant 27447]

Interesting increase in conspiracy theory posting of it originating from a Chinese lab. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Interesting increase in conspiracy theory posting of it originating from a Chinese lab. 

Conspiracy theory ?  You could call it that, maybe you need to look at some of the videos that have been released.  Not really looking all that conspiratorial. Looking more like shoddy protocol, and then a cover up by those friendly folks at the PRC.

[Captainant 27447]

3 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Conspiracy theory ?  You could call it that, maybe you need to look at some of the videos that have been released.  Not really looking all that conspiratorial. Looking more like shoddy protocol, and then a cover up by those friendly folks at the PRC.

Haven't had a chance to keep up, what's the best one to watch to get up to speed on that? 

[stork642 4498]

6 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Interesting increase in conspiracy theory posting of it originating from a Chinese lab. 

Well it’s clear the Chinese Government has been lying since this whole corona thing started.  If you are seriously going to point to a conspiracy you are just blinded by ignorance if you choose not to look there first.  They sure are acting like they they trying to cover something up.  I guess it’s just a coincidence.  

[workswithseed 2035]

I went walking to the local beer shop down the road on a nice sunny day, and I usually look at the stickers and graffiti that are everywhere in Portland. I came across some stuff that I just feel like posting for the masses on Surly

 

 

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Haven't had a chance to keep up, what's the best one to watch to get up to speed on that? 

Check a youtube video titled :  I found the source of the coronavirus. It's a pretty sober, no frills video, quick to watch, and presented in a simple ABC format. The guy lived in China 10 years. He comes off as pretty knowledgable, and unbiased. 

[Deej 76560]

12 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Conspiracy theory ?  You could call it that, maybe you need to look at some of the videos that have been released.  Not really looking all that conspiratorial. Looking more like shoddy protocol, and then a cover up by those friendly folks at the PRC.

Sounds like Sum Ting Wong.

[Hmmm 155]

9 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Check a youtube video titled :  I found the source of the coronavirus. It's a pretty sober, no frills video, quick to watch, and presented in a simple ABC format. The guy lived in China 10 years. He comes off as pretty knowledgable, and unbiased. 

yeah, it really doesn't seem that far fetched.  now, if they claimed this was synthetic and man-made i'd have to adjust my tin foil hat.  it's unfortunate that the lab is located so close to a wet market.  at this point, it seems conclusive that the virus originated in Wuhan.  

[workswithseed 2035]

 

[Not a cat 5618]

1 hour ago, Moby Ric said:

Problem is this.  Test are being cancelled, and when they cancel them they tell you that you are first in line for the next one.   Well the next one also needs other kids to get in.  So there is a backlog and everyone will be cramming to get in to the August and October testing and so many seats.  With 6 weeks to get your scores out and with deadlines of applicants being in December it is creating a problem.  It is either test more often to make up the backlog, or ignore the test.  Just a different world right now.

My daughter just got her scores back from February and she over performed for her genetics to say the least.  I'm trying to figure out if she's about to get really lucky in that she'll be part of a smaller than average group with a high score or really unlucky in that this is the year test scores are ignored.  

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

4 minutes ago, Hmmm said:

yeah, it really doesn't seem that far fetched.  now, if they claimed this was synthetic and man-made i'd have to adjust my tin foil hat.  it's unfortunate that the lab is located so close to a wet market.  at this point, it seems conclusive that the virus originated in Wuhan.  

He doesn't even make any claims about bio warfare or intentional distribution.  He seems to attribute it to accidental and or sloppy protocol.  It's the woman/lead researcher missing now that seems bizarre.

[GringoSalado 1651]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

 I'm goin with bat eatin' chinese mainly because is sounds better than a 22 year old chinese intern accidentally left the lab with a petri dish in his pocket

The theory was an accidental exposure not an intentional smuggling of the petri dish.

 

So either a virus from a horseshoe bat 600 miles away found itself in Wuhan or the virus from a horseshoe bat in Wuhan found itself in Wuhan.

 

One scenario seems more likely.

[TwiceHorn 31269]

Made another sojourn up to Princeton to ride my bike.  

Collin County traffic is nearly as bad as regular days.  HWY 380 was crowded af.  Central too.

Dallas inside LBJ not so much.

Not upset, just an observation. 🤬🤬

[GringoSalado 1651]

1 hour ago, Hmmm said:

i'm having trouble understanding your reasoning.  the wet market - where people eat bats - is blocks away from the Wuhan lab.  

The species that carries the virus is not from the area and is not known to be trafficked there. But it IS known to exist in captivity. In Wuhan. In a lab where viruses are studied. 

 

Edit: all of this has been posted in this thread 

Edited April 17, 2020 by GringoSalado

[GRHorn 105]

3 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Yea agreed. Almost might be time to just look at recoveries

 

3 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Which we also can’t do because testing. 

Imo the best metric to follow is hospitalizations. How many people are in hospitals that have tested positive or are considered PUIs. That’s less likely to be fudged because once you designate these patients as such the precaution levels are obviously different level. 
 

So as of today Texas has 1,459 patients hospitalized, down about 75 from yesterday. The IHME model projected 1,911. And that’s after multiple revisions down over the last weeks. 
 

Smaller sample but after a brief rise San Antonio actually had the same amount of hospitalized patients on 4/15 as it did on 4/1. 

[Hate 20103]

Just now, GRHorn said:

 

Imo the best metric to follow is hospitalizations. How many people are in hospitals that have tested positive or are considered PUIs. That’s less likely to be fudged because once you designate these patients as such the precaution levels are obviously different level. 
 

So as of today Texas has 1,459 patients hospitalized, down about 75 from yesterday. The IHME model projected 1,911. And that’s after multiple revisions down over the last weeks. 
 

Smaller sample but after a brief rise San Antonio actually had the same amount of hospitalized patients on 4/15 as it did on 4/1. 

This seems like good news.  Delete this post immediately.

just kidding...settle down doomsdayers

. 

[GabrielsHorn 2142]

El Arroyo posted this earlier but then took it down.

[Anastasis 23394]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Interesting increase in conspiracy theory posting of it originating from a Chinese lab. 

Needs more DNS logs for you to really sink your teeth in?

[ruitxn 295]

15 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

 

Imo the best metric to follow is hospitalizations. How many people are in hospitals that have tested positive or are considered PUIs. That’s less likely to be fudged because once you designate these patients as such the precaution levels are obviously different level. 
 

So as of today Texas has 1,459 patients hospitalized, down about 75 from yesterday. The IHME model projected 1,911. And that’s after multiple revisions down over the last weeks. 
 

Smaller sample but after a brief rise San Antonio actually had the same amount of hospitalized patients on 4/15 as it did on 4/1. 

So you aren’t interested in counting numbers of nursing home infections or deaths.  In the most highly affected areas, nursing home deaths account for 15 percent to as much as 50 percent of total deaths.  Also just wondering your opinion of what is causing weekly home deaths to have increased from 4 to 6 times over historical levels in Detroit and New York. 

[ABSR 5289]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Haven't had a chance to keep up, what's the best one to watch to get up to speed on that? 

 

 

[Murfdogg21 4412]

12 minutes ago, GabrielsHorn said:

El Arroyo posted this earlier but then took it down.

Don’t be scared, El Arroyo. 
 

Also, do they still do $1 margaritas on Thursdays? If so will they do it curbside?

[bolverk 29399]

1 hour ago, stork642 said:

Well it’s clear the Chinese Government has been lying since this whole corona thing started.  If you are seriously going to point to a conspiracy you are just blinded by ignorance if you choose not to look there first.  They sure are acting like they they trying to cover something up.  I guess it’s just a coincidence.  

China's government is absolutely a bad actor who fucked it up royally by initially downplaying the disease, but everything that happened after January 3 is absolutely on us.

[akhornfan 4]

3 minutes ago, bolverk said:

China's government is absolutely a bad actor who fucked it up royally by initially downplaying the disease, but everything that happened after January 3 is absolutely on us.

They do continue to play that role. It wasn’t just initially. Nothing to do with our response. . .

[rage-a-holic 4307]

4 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Don’t be scared, El Arroyo. 
 

Also, do they still do $1 margaritas on Thursdays? If so will they do it curbside?

Their house ritas contain about 20 cents worth of rotgut "agave flavored neutral grain spirits" from Kentucky. I really don't think the drive is worth your time.

[ABSR 5289]

6 minutes ago, bolverk said:

China's government is absolutely a bad actor who fucked it up royally by initially downplaying the disease, but everything that happened after January 3 is absolutely on us.

Not that we acted quickly, but this AP article lays out the delays the Chinese government intentionally did as they tried to cover up and manage the public messages about the epidemic.  January 3 is a little early to say we or the world were delinquent in taking action.   

And again, fuck China.

https://apnews.com/68a9e1b91de4ffc166acd6012d82c2f9

"In the six days after top Chinese officials secretly determined they likely were facing a pandemic from a new coronavirus, the city of Wuhan at the epicenter of the disease hosted a mass banquet for tens of thousands of people; millions began traveling through for Lunar New Year celebrations.

President Xi Jinping warned the public on the seventh day, Jan. 20. But by that time, more than 3,000 people had been infected during almost a week of public silence, according to internal documents obtained by The Associated Press and expert estimates based on retrospective infection data...."

[bolverk 29399]

3 minutes ago, ABSR said:

Not that we acted quickly, but this AP article lays out the delays the Chinese government intentionally did as they tried to cover up and manage the public messages about the epidemic.  January 3 is a little early to say we or the world were delinquent in taking action.   

And again, fuck China.

https://apnews.com/68a9e1b91de4ffc166acd6012d82c2f9

"In the six days after top Chinese officials secretly determined they likely were facing a pandemic from a new coronavirus, the city of Wuhan at the epicenter of the disease hosted a mass banquet for tens of thousands of people; millions began traveling through for Lunar New Year celebrations.

President Xi Jinping warned the public on the seventh day, Jan. 20. But by that time, more than 3,000 people had been infected during almost a week of public silence, according to internal documents obtained by The Associated Press and expert estimates based on retrospective infection data...."

January 3, 2020: Chinese colleagues alert the CDC Director about the virus. 

Chinese colleagues alert CDC Director Robert Redfield on the spread of the unknown and novel virus. Redfield quickly relayed the information to U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar who notified the National Security Council.

https://www.justsecurity.org/69650/timeline-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-and-u-s-response/

There's much, much more detail in the timeline before and after that brief section I quoted but won't go any further here. I will say,  however, it is very well sourced and extremely comprehensive.

[dcar00 14035]

7 minutes ago, bolverk said:

January 3, 2020: Chinese colleagues alert the CDC Director about the virus. 

Chinese colleagues alert CDC Director Robert Redfield on the spread of the unknown and novel virus. Redfield quickly relayed the information to U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar who notified the National Security Council.

https://www.justsecurity.org/69650/timeline-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-and-u-s-response/

There's much, much more detail in the timeline before and after that brief section I quoted but won't go any further here. I will say,  however, it is very well sourced and extremely comprehensive.

yep our lead science guy at the very beginning of March was telling the general public to go about their business.