Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[bolverk 29399]

5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Bluntly, it didn't appear that you had followed along, specifically for the reasons both I and you have now stated - you were acting as if the discussions regarding the blame game hadn't already occurred, with regularity on the thread. The rest is drivel whining about my whining. 

It's true that it had been going on for a while, but I had been keeping my mouth shut. And, frankly, the anger is justifiable. None of this would've happened whether it occurred in a wet market or a lab. But, last night, it felt like things were hitting a tipping point where the thread was no longer a discussion about ongoing events but one that was turning into full-blown political tantrum. That's surly though, so it shouldn't have come to any surprise on my part.

Look, I'm pissed too. I'd much rather be in my office right now than sitting in an uncomfortable wooden chair at my kitchen table. I'm tired of worrying about leaving the house and feeling like Saul Goodman's brother when I do -- though that's dissipating. I'm very fucking worried about the devastation being reaped on the economy and what that means to my and my coworkers'/friends' ongoing and future employment. Because of the nature of what I do for a living, I'm very, very in-tune with what's going on with the state's economy and am having to revise reports, analyses, feasibility studies on an ongoing basis and never feel like I can ever actually complete them and get them out the door. Data is lagging, new data is coming in. Everything is uncertain and I can't reliably predict what's going to happen for my clients.

I spend a great deal of my time during the day talking with community leaders around the state, trying to help them figure out ways to respond and help their local businesses. I'm frequently on conference calls/attending webinars with SBA folks, consultants, reps from the governor's office, TWC, and other agencies trying to get that information condensed and out the door. Believe me, I want this over just as much as anyone else. It fucking sucks, and I hate it too.

[closetojumping 62239]

3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

 

It should follow the Federal guidelines published yesterday, but hopefully with more specifics relevant to particular areas within the state.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

 

So if this is what I read yesterday afternoon, I'm guessing greetings, religious gatherings and subways aren't addressed? I guess the social distancing handles the greeting issue indirectly, but this thing has a far higher likelihood of spreading when hugs and handshakes are involved. The subways in major cities need to be flat out shut down. There is no personal space in those places whatsoever, especially during rush hour.

[F250 28682]

Just now, utee94 said:

 

It should follow the Federal guidelines published yesterday, but hopefully with more specifics relevant to particular areas within the state.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/openingamerica/

 

So will he just express the desire to reopen and then roll the responsiblity down hill?

San Antonio just announced tighter restrictions yesterday hopefully Abbott doesn't create any confusion by going in the opposite direction.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

Just now, F250 said:

So will he just express the desire to reopen and then roll the responsiblity down hill?

Sounds reasonable to me. This should be handled at a local level anyway.

[bolverk 29399]

15 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Do you or anyone else have a link to what Abbott has announced? Are they really going to let malls and bars reopen?

His televised announcement is supposed to come on at noon.

Edit: It looks like the Austrian psychopath beat me to it.

Edited April 17, 2020 by bolverk

[stork642 4498]

22 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

This is the corona equivalent to "YOUR NOT A COACHEZ??!?!". Just a fucking dipshitted, weak rhetorical turn in the hopes of derailing another's point. 

So, do you have Morrissey playing on a loop before you click onto Surly, or do you click onto Surly first and then start up Meat Is Murder and the like? The order isn't clear to me. I'm fairly certain that step 3 is a slow burn from mewling into violent sobbing. Step 4 is shouting at the screen. Step 5 they take the computer privileges away. First two still haven't quite sorted though.

I’m thinking his choice of music is the Smiths.  Girlfriends got Corona I know I know it’s serious.  

[Sbbruin 21733]

10 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

There sure are a bag full of hammers on this site....

[closetojumping 62239]

2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

It's true that it had been going on for a while, but I had been keeping my mouth shut. And, frankly, the anger is justifiable. None of this would've happened whether it occurred in a wet market or a lab. But, last night, it felt like things were hitting a tipping point where the thread was no longer a discussion about ongoing events but one that was turning into full-blown political tantrum. That's surly though, so it shouldn't have come to any surprise on my part.

Look, I'm pissed too. I'd much rather be in my office right now than sitting in an uncomfortable wooden chair at my kitchen table. I'm tired of worrying about leaving the house and feeling like Saul Goodman's brother when I do -- though that's dissipating. I'm very fucking worried about the devastation being reaped on the economy and what that means to my and my coworkers'/friends' ongoing and future employment. Because of the nature of what I do for a living, I'm very, very in-tune with what's going on with the state's economy and am having to revise reports, analyses, feasibility studies on an ongoing basis and never feel like I can ever actually complete them and get them out the door. Data is lagging, new data is coming in. Everything is uncertain and I can't reliably predict what's going to happen for my clients.

I spend a great deal of my time during the day talking with community leaders around the state, trying to help them figure out ways to respond and help their local businesses. I'm frequently on conference calls/attending webinars with SBA folks, consultants, reps from the governor's office, TWC, and other agencies trying to get that information condensed and out the door. Believe me, I want this over just as much as anyone else. It fucking sucks, and I hate it too.

Regarding the direction of conversation last night, I just think there is ebb and flow of subject matter in a thread of this size, and frankly, nothing is ever going to sustain itself and dominate the conversation for very long. As to last night's subject matter, it's appeared on this thread on numerous occasions. The video that's been posted a few times in the last 24 hours was posted like a month or two weeks ago here. Going off of memory, but that's at least close to what happened. The story, discussion, and media coverage from both Fox and CNN aren't new things and have come and gone on this thread multiple times. 

Beyond that, I use colorful language and enjoy a good fight, but you're mistaking my posts as emotional. It's fine by me, but I'm not sure anyone on here besides a couple of really emotive wingnuts, is faring any differently from one another. We want more certainty, we're worried about people's health, the economy, and our livelihoods, and we're kind of bored with the monotony. 

[utee94 15745]

9 minutes ago, F250 said:

So will he just express the desire to reopen and then roll the responsiblity down hill?

San Antonio just announced tighter restrictions yesterday hopefully Abbott doesn't create any confusion by going in the opposite direction.

The Federal guidelines have gates and milestones built into them, that relate to downward trajectories within regions for cases, ILI or COVID symptoms, etc  I'd hope that the governor would roll it out regionally by county or municipality, since obviously the virus isn't affecting all locations in the state, in the same way, just as it is not affecting all states in the country, in the same way.

 

10 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

So if this is what I read yesterday afternoon, I'm guessing greetings, religious gatherings and subways aren't addressed? I guess the social distancing handles the greeting issue indirectly, but this thing has a far higher likelihood of spreading when hugs and handshakes are involved. The subways in major cities need to be flat out shut down. There is no personal space in those places whatsoever, especially during rush hour.

We've got subways in Texas???

Yeah, I hear ya, public transit in general isn't conducive to social distancing.  Except for buses in Austin of course, plenty of distancing space in those. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by utee94

[DDD Dad 14251]

27 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

This is the corona equivalent to "YOUR NOT A COACHEZ??!?!". Just a fucking dipshitted, weak rhetorical turn in the hopes of derailing another's point. 

So, do you have Morrissey playing on a loop before you click onto Surly, or do you click onto Surly first and then start up Meat Is Murder and the like? The order isn't clear to me. I'm fairly certain that step 3 is a slow burn from mewling into violent sobbing. Step 4 is shouting at the screen. Step 5 they take the computer privileges away. First two still haven't quite sorted though.

CTJ insulting everyone who disagrees with him not going away.

[Neonmoon 38127]

Will offices reopen too? 

[closetojumping 62239]

3 minutes ago, stork642 said:

I’m thinking his choice of music is the Smiths.  Girlfriends got Corona I know I know it’s serious.  

Ha. I guess I view Morrissey and The Smiths as interchangeable since he fronted The Smiths. 

[F250 28682]

8 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

So we should have done what all the other nations weren't doing ? ?  It's not wailing, it's asking why other nations didn't close down. Why are people just selectively bashing our country ?  The western world has acted about the same in many cases.

If you spend anytime on the football board you will see most are the same with UT. The attitude of "We are Texas!" is pretty similar, we will criticize our own institution because we expect it to be head and shoulders above the rest.

The richest college football program in the heartland of high school football should be outperforming everyone else not running at the same level of land grant schools in BFE. The United States with all it's resources should be held to the same standard.

Basically, we hold our institutions to a higher standard.

[Brisketexan 104605]

25 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

So we should have done what all the other nations weren't doing ? ?  It's not wailing, it's asking why other nations didn't close down. Why are people just selectively bashing our country ?  The western world has acted about the same in many cases.

Testing. Testing.  Testing.  That is the difference.

Norway, for example, has been very successful:

Quote

“We are one of the countries that has tested the highest percentage of our population and the assumption would be that the more you test, the more mild cases you will have among the confirmed cases, and more mild cases in the denominator will impact the estimation of the mortality."

He said that widespread testing may also make it easier to slow the spread of the disease.

"The more you test the more people with mild symptoms you find, and you can also do contact tracing and quarantine around people those mild cases," he said.

Germany (and this article is almost 2 weeks old):

Quote

The country had already tested about 920,000 people through late March and checked more than 350,000 people in the past week alone, the Robert Koch Institute public health group said Tuesday in a report. That may still understate the country’s total effort, since not all the laboratories that have done assays have yet submitted numbers for last week.

Readily available testing, including testing of people with mild symptoms and people who have simply been exposed to known infected people, helps you do two very important things.

FIRST, it helps you quarantine the infected so they don't spread the infection.  This is huge.  This is absolutely necessary for us to do in order to "open the economy back up," which I think most everyone agrees, we HAVE to do.  If we have lots of testing, then we can isolate little fires where they start, and keep them from becoming huge wildfires.

SECOND, it helps us understand the ultimate effects of the disease much better.  We talk about case fatality rate on here all the time, and again, pretty much everyone has acknowledged that we don't have any good idea what it is.  I mean, we all acknowledge that a 3% CFR is clearly not accurate, and is too high.  We also acknowledge that the CFR is almost certainly materially higher than the seasonal flu.  But how much so?  That matters.  There's a lot of room between .1% and 3%.  Norway, for example, has a CFR of .45%, based on their data.  Why is that?

Quote

One possible explanation for the low mortality rate in Norway may be that the country is among those that have tested the largest proportion of their population for the coronavirus.

The same may be true for South Korea. Here too, the recorded mortality rate has been surprisingly low.

At the same time, South Korea has the largest percentage of recorded coronavirus infections in its population of all countries in Asia. Norway also has a relatively large proportion of residents who have tested positive for the disease.

We need to know this.  We really, really need to know this.  If we can live in a world where these three things are true:

1 -- the CFR is something like .5% (so, 5X the seasonal flu, but not insanely higher)

2 -- we can test lots of people, and isolate outbreaks before they spread significantly, and to keep them from spiking and overwhelming resources

3 -- we can improve therapies to reduce the CFR even 20% (so, maybe take it from .5% to .4%).......

THEN we can develop a plan for opening up activities and getting society and the economy moving again, with some changes and restrictions that may feel weird, but will allow us to function and earn a living, and that plan can carry us until a vaccine becomes available.

Make me America's COVID Czar, and that's my plan.  Note that it all comes down to testing, testing, testing.  And it's followed by bulking up CDC boots on the ground (most likely by "deputizing" or delegating to existing local authorities) to perform such testing AND the contact tracing that must follow.  On a parallel track, pursuing great-guns (including full cooperation with everyone else across the world) treatment therapies and vaccines, including spending money to get facilities ready to produce vaccines (knowing that some of that money will be wasted -- that's the breaks -- I'd happily "waste" $100 million to fast-track a plan to save the country a coupla trillion).

Testing.  Testing.  Testing.  Chant it in your sleep.  It's the key.

Edited April 17, 2020 by Brisketexan

[ABSR 5289]

14 hours ago, bolverk said:

January 3, 2020: Chinese colleagues alert the CDC Director about the virus. 

Chinese colleagues alert CDC Director Robert Redfield on the spread of the unknown and novel virus. Redfield quickly relayed the information to U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar who notified the National Security Council.

https://www.justsecurity.org/69650/timeline-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic-and-u-s-response/

There's much, much more detail in the timeline before and after that brief section I quoted but won't go any further here. I will say,  however, it is very well sourced and extremely comprehensive.

To be clear, I am not saying that the US (and world) response was quick or decisive.  However, my understanding is that your contention is that the US knew positively what was happening on January 3rd and should have taken action at that time.    

My position is that what was really happening was being covered up, or even not fully realized by the Chinese so January 3rd as a date of failure to act on the US, or other world government's part, is an unrealistic expectation.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/13/fauci_chinese_misinformation_delayed_us_response_to_coronavirus.html

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious diseases expert on the White House coronavirus task force, appeared on MSNBC Sunday evening to speak about when the administration concluded that coronavirus was a threat and how Chinese "misinformation" about whether the virus could spread person-to-person delayed the U.S. response.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/21/who-raises-possibility-of-sustained-human-to-human-transmission-of-new-virus-in-china/

This is from January 21.  And is quoting the WHO indicating they think it could be worse but it still needs more analysis.

- Again, not arguing about the actions taken, just that the January 3rd date you identify as a date of failure to act is too early.

The World Health Organization on Tuesday raised the possibility that the new virus spreading in parts of China may be transmitting in an ongoing, sustained manner between people — which, if confirmed, would make it significantly more difficult to stop.

The agency’s Western Pacific Regional office, which covers China and neighboring countries, said on Twitter that new information “suggests there may now be sustained human-to-human transmission.”

“But more information and analysis,” it added, “are needed on this new virus to understand the full extent of human-to-human transmission and other important details.”

 

[stone oak 639]

10 minutes ago, utee94 said:

We've got subways in Texas???

Do you even IAH bro?

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by stone oak

[dcar00 14035]

44 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Wasn't implying he could. Thought it would be assumed I meant that he could force counties to remove restrictions. Counties and cities really have very little authority if the state govt has a different opinion.  But ultimately no one can actually force a business to open their doors.

the county and city can certainly try.  at the end of the day the governor is going to give his status and would assume he would tell the county what he status he is going to give them.

It will be interesting if a county or city cites or arrests someone.  IMO, as long as you aren't gathering in large groups and mind your own business no one is going to bother with you.

the bar v. restaurant thing in the phases is interesting though.  I can see that being an issue.  

schools is another huge can of worms - people who want to work need them badly.

Edited April 17, 2020 by dcar00

[dcar00 14035]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Testing. Testing.  Testing.

Norway, for example, has been very successful:

Germany (and this article is almost 2 weeks old):

Readily available testing, including testing of people with mild symptoms and people who have simply been exposed to known infected people, helps you do two very important things.

FIRST, it helps you quarantine the infected so they don't spread the infection.  This is huge.  This is absolutely necessary for us to do in order to "open the economy back up," which I think most everyone agrees, we HAVE to do.  If we have lots of testing, then we can isolate little fires where they start, and keep them from becoming huge wildfires.

SECOND, it helps us understand the ultimate effects of the disease much better.  We talk about case fatality rate on here all the time, and again, pretty much everyone has acknowledged that we don't have any good idea what it is.  I mean, we all acknowledge that a 3% CFR is clearly not accurate, and is too high.  We also acknowledge that the CFR is almost certainly materially higher than the seasonal flu.  But how much so?  That matters.  There's a lot of room between .1% and 3%.  Norway, for example, has a CFR of .45%, based on their data.  Why is that?

We need to know this.  We really, really need to know this.  If we can live in a world where these three things are true:

1 -- the CFR is something like .5% (so, 5X the seasonal flu, but not insanely higher)

2 -- we can test lots of people, and isolate outbreaks before they spread significantly, and to keep them from spiking and overwhelming resources

3 -- we can improve therapies to reduce the CFR even 20% (so, maybe take it from .5% to .4%).......

THEN we can develop a plan for opening up activities and getting society and the economy moving again, with some changes and restrictions that may feel weird, but will allow us to function and earn a living, and that plan can carry us until a vaccine becomes available.

Make me America's COVID Czar, and that's my plan.  Note that it all comes down to testing, testing, testing.  And it's followed by bulking up CDC boots on the ground (most likely by "deputizing" or delegating to existing local authorities) to perform such testing AND the contact tracing that must follow.  On a parallel track, pursuing great-guns (including full cooperation with everyone else across the world) treatment therapies and vaccines, including spending money to get facilities ready to produce vaccines (knowing that some of that money will be wasted -- that's the breaks -- I'd happily "waste" $100 million to fast-track a plan to save the country a coupla trillion).

Testing.  Testing.  Testing.  Chant it in your sleep.  It's the key.

the IFR is below .5 for sure.  4 months into H1N1 they estimated the number of Infections/Cases.  We are almost 4 months into this.  I'd call it the ECFR(estimated case failure rate)

Yes testing is key.  I believe it is coming soon in large quantity but I can still see it taking another 2-3 weeks. Apparently there are a lot of test machines and tests out there but there weren't enough people trained in running them.  

[aggie08 21432]

44 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

This is the corona equivalent to "YOUR NOT A COACHEZ??!?!". Just a fucking dipshitted, weak rhetorical turn in the hopes of derailing another's point. 

Fuck off.  There are legitimate, rational reasons as to why the numbers may be off one way or the other (mostly just because they're fucking overwhelmed), but "they're being instructed by their state government to goose the numbers [in the middle of the shit storm that they're experiencing, no less] to increase their cut of the federal stimulus" is abject horseshit.  It deserved a dismissive response.  Seriously, fuck off.

Edited April 17, 2020 by aggie08

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Testing.  Testing.  Testing.  Chant it in your sleep.  It's the key.

"Testing attention please"
Feel the tension soon as someone mentions me
Here's my ten cents, my two cents is free
A nuisance, who sent, you sent for me?

[Brisketexan 104605]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

the IFR is below .5 for sure.  4 months into H1N1 they estimated the number of Infections/Cases.  We are almost 4 months into this.  I'd call it the ECFR(estimated case failure rate)

Yes testing is key.  I believe it is coming soon in large quantity but I can still see it taking another 2-3 weeks. Apparently there are a lot of test machines and tests out there but there weren't enough people trained in running them.  

And that's key, because if we have 1) a more manageable IFR and 2) a way to mitigate spread until a vaccine comes about, then we end up with fewer deaths.  And ultimately, "rate" doesn't matter -- it's the death toll that does.

If we have an IFR of .5%, and we can keep the number of infected below, say, 50 million, then we have 250,000 dead.  Which is STILL shitty.  But would most people deem that a "managed" disease? I think so.  I mean, it's the old sports cliche "you can't stop him, you can only hope to contain him!"  Contain it, manage it, so that we can function as a society and economy.

[Telegraph_it 3354]

10 minutes ago, stone oak said:

Do you even IAH bro?

 

Hell yes. And It looks the same in 2020. I don't ride the dumb tram thing but it is much easier walking between terminals on that rad purple and black carpet. 

[dcar00 14035]

10 minutes ago, ABSR said:

To be clear, I am not saying that the US (and world) response was quick or decisive.  However, my understanding is that your contention is that the US knew positively what was happening on January 3rd and should have taken action at that time.    

My position is that what was really happening was being covered up, or even not fully realized by the Chinese so January 3rd as a date of failure to act on the US, or other world government's part, is an unrealistic expectation.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/13/fauci_chinese_misinformation_delayed_us_response_to_coronavirus.html

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious diseases expert on the White House coronavirus task force, appeared on MSNBC Sunday evening to speak about when the administration concluded that coronavirus was a threat and how Chinese "misinformation" about whether the virus could spread person-to-person delayed the U.S. response.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/21/who-raises-possibility-of-sustained-human-to-human-transmission-of-new-virus-in-china/

This is from January 21.  And is quoting the WHO indicating they think it could be worse but it still needs more analysis.

- Again, not arguing about the actions taken, just that the January 3rd date you identify as a date of failure to act is too early.

The World Health Organization on Tuesday raised the possibility that the new virus spreading in parts of China may be transmitting in an ongoing, sustained manner between people — which, if confirmed, would make it significantly more difficult to stop.

The agency’s Western Pacific Regional office, which covers China and neighboring countries, said on Twitter that new information “suggests there may now be sustained human-to-human transmission.”

“But more information and analysis,” it added, “are needed on this new virus to understand the full extent of human-to-human transmission and other important details.”

 

on March 1st lead science guy Fauci said the american people should continue going on about their business.

the biggest mistake the federal govt made that was really in their control was not stopping ALL travel into the US on Jan 31st but given what Fauci was saying I can see why it wasn't

[dcar00 14035]

6 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Fuck off.  There are legitimate, rational reasons as to why the numbers may be off one way or the other (mostly just because they're fucking overwhelmed), but "they're being instructed by their state government to goose the numbers [in the middle of the shit storm that they're experiencing, no less] to increase their cut of the federal stimulus" is abject horseshit.  It deserved a dismissive response.  Seriously, fuck off.

why not just mark a death that you don't know if it is from Corona as something other than Corona?

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

on March 1st lead science guy Fauci said the american people should continue going on about their business.

the biggest mistake the federal govt made that was really in their control was not stopping ALL travel into the US on Jan 31st but given what Fauci was saying I can see why it wasn't

Not a popular opinion, but I'm giving everyone involved in this crisis a huge benefit of the doubt. I know the American Way is to get pissed at our government and point fingers of blame & armchair QB everything...BUT...making broad sweeping changes/orders early in the game would have been catastrophic. Imagine the panic that would have occurred if I told you on January 15th that on March 17th, you would be "locked in place" and this would have been going on for 4-6 weeks with little end in sight. The response would have been insane. 

Sometimes, shit has to hit the fan before people do the right thing.

[InkaUtexas 25516]

Looking at Wundermap's county tracker. See an interesting trend. 

Brazos County- 151 cases. 13 Deaths. 

Travis County- 977 cases, 17 Deaths. 

There better be some leeway for counties to remain locked down if they need. Oh, and don't get sick in BCS. 

 

[dcar00 14035]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And that's key, because if we have 1) a more manageable IFR and 2) a way to mitigate spread until a vaccine comes about, then we end up with fewer deaths.  And ultimately, "rate" doesn't matter -- it's the death toll that does.

If we have an IFR of .5%, and we can keep the number of infected below, say, 50 million, then we have 250,000 dead.  Which is STILL shitty.  But would most people deem that a "managed" disease? I think so.  I mean, it's the old sports cliche "you can't stop him, you can only hope to contain him!"  Contain it, manage it, so that we can function as a society and economy.

agree.  you are coming around.  I believe the IFR is around .25 to .3.  this thing is highly contagious and was here for a while before that guy showed up in Washinton State.   I will be very interested in how the CDC calculates the estimated cases/infections because whether we like it or not there will be a big discussion on the ECFR/IFR.  It can't be shown to be under .2.

there is a reason that that IHME model got adjusted from 61K to 68K in 2 days

 

[atomheartbevo 89425]

13 hours ago, Hate said:

So? It’s still funny...and a powerful PSA.

Oh it’s funny, and not even the edgiest thing they’ve said, I’m just surprised they would say out loud what a lot of us have been thinking from the start, given their location.   

[Longhorn94 2427]

Fuck China for how they handled this. Fuck the US Government for how they continue to handle this. 

No one from my family will venture out into the world until:

1. Widespread and readily available testing is put in place so we can isolate and contact trace;

2. Effective therapies have been developed that reduce the risk of serious illness; and

3. Masks are worn until the virus has been effectively defeated.

 

 

[GabrielsHorn 2142]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Looking at Wundermap's county tracker. See an interesting trend. 

Brazos County- 151 cases. 13 Deaths. 

Travis County- 977 cases, 17 Deaths. 

There better be some leeway for counties to remain locked down if they need. Oh, and don't get sick in BCS. 

 

Any of these re-opening plans need to be pretty malleable for being able to swing the quarantine hammer / levels of social distancing between regions and cities. However, hopefully there’s more coordination between countries so Tarrant and Dallas don’t differ for example. 
 

Either way, we’ll find out in less than an hour for Texas. I know here in Colorado they are looking to “re-open” on April 26, but it’s still unclear what that means beyond the 15 minute tests at Walgreens. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

Just now, Longhorn94 said:

Fuck China for how they handled this. Fuck the US Government for how they continue to handle this. 

No one from my family will venture out into the world until:

1. Widespread and readily available testing is put in place so we can isolate and contact trace;

2. Effective therapies have been developed that reduce the risk of serious illness; and

3. Masks are worn until the virus has been effectively defeated.

[InkaUtexas 25516]

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

36 minutes ago, F250 said:

If you spend anytime on the football board you will see most are the same with UT. The attitude of "We are Texas!" is pretty similar, we will criticize our own institution because we expect it to be head and shoulders above the rest.

The richest college football program in the heartland of high school football should be outperforming everyone else not running at the same level of land grant schools in BFE. The United States with all it's resources should be held to the same standard.

Basically, we hold our institutions to a higher standard.

I do as well, but that doesn't extend to unrealistic expectations of what reality brings to the door.

[Brisketexan 104605]

10 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

agree.  you are coming around.  I believe the IFR is around .25 to .3.  this thing is highly contagious and was here for a while before that guy showed up in Washinton State.   I will be very interested in how the CDC calculates the estimated cases/infections because whether we like it or not there will be a big discussion on the ECFR/IFR.  It can't be shown to be under .2.

there is a reason that that IHME model got adjusted from 61K to 68K in 2 days

 

I've always wanted good data.   And the only way we get that is by testing.  And our approach to testing was blown right out of the gate, so we're playing a VERY costly game of catch-up.  AND, we DO know that left unchecked, the virus spreads like crazy and can 1) crush hospitals and 2) kill a lot of folks right quick (see NYC -- and forget the argument about adding deaths to the count -- even at the count BEFORE those deaths were added (which I think was a reasonable move, by the way), the city saw its daily death rate spike like hell).

So, we know that it spreads very easily and widely.  And we know that once it has done so, you end up with a lot of very sick and dead people at once.  Those real-world data points are reason enough for us to have taken decisive action (social distancing to flatten the curve).  It would have been nice if we'd really digested those data points from OTHER places first, and done what countries like Norway, Germany, and South Korea did -- take such measures at the same time that we were implementing wide-scale testing, because that approach is helping places like Germany re-open schools on May 4th.

But we are where we are.  SO, let's test.  Everyone with any symptoms.  And everyone who had any contact with anyone who tested positive.  All of them.  Then isolate to minimize the spread.  And keep doing that till a vaccine is available.

Edited April 17, 2020 by Brisketexan

[TwiceHorn 31272]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

Man, if only there was some mechanism that the US had to have its own boots on the ground in China so we didn't have to rely on WHO and China. Because from the tenor of y'all's posts, it seems like but for the dastardly evildoers in China and WHO, we would have reacted perfectly to Rona. 

I don't get the wailing at other nations and global orgs when there is so much that we have failed to do as a nation in our response. Much more robust and energetic talk around how much those unaccountable entities suck, when compared to tacitly banning dissent against the federal response actions and decisions that have real and local impact on us

Even with boots on the ground, I am not sure disinformation could have been avoided.

Still doesn't excuse the inaction in February.

[closetojumping 62239]

27 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Fuck off.  There are legitimate, rational reasons as to why the numbers may be off one way or the other (mostly just because they're fucking overwhelmed), but "they're being instructed by their state government to goose the numbers [in the middle of the shit storm that they're experiencing, no less] to increase their cut of the federal stimulus" is abject horseshit.  It deserved a dismissive response.  Seriously, fuck off.

Dude, you should totally tell me to fuck off one more time, that way I'll really understand that you mean business. Seriously.

[Dahobbs 17447]

58 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

NY adding suspected Coronavirus deaths is completely asinine unless they adjust number of cases based on this as well.  The CFR is going to be overstated greatly by them monkeying with the numbers.

Is NY reporting a CFR? If not, isn't it up to entities performing that analysis to take into consideration these sort of reporting issues? And, ultimately, CFR is just one statistic, cabined to a particular set of data (known deaths and known cases). Determining a true total population fatality ratio, which is what you're talking about, doesn't just use CFR, but requires further extrapolation. This just seems like an odd thing to get angry about. Who cares what the CFR is as reported on random websites?

55 minutes ago, stork642 said:

Let me start beefing up my resume but just to clarify you are saying that there isn’t a financial incentive in the recently passed stimulus bill that rewards states that have higher body counts?  If this is the case wouldn’t be ripe for corruption?

 

Of course if someone really dies of CV that death should count but if states are being paid by the body good luck getting an accurate count of CV deaths.  Some states, especially the ones in financial trouble, will use this for an infusion of cash.  

So, basically, you're just engaging in speculation? Conspiracy theories are fun, I know,  but as far as I know there is no evidence that anything like that is happening. Rather, the evidence is that states are following the directive of the CDC in order to provide more accurate counts of deaths by addressing the problem of under reporting while keeping stringent enough guidelines to avoid any substantial over reporting. 

[bolverk 29399]

31 minutes ago, ABSR said:

To be clear, I am not saying that the US (and world) response was quick or decisive.  However, my understanding is that your contention is that the US knew positively what was happening on January 3rd and should have taken action at that time.    

My position is that what was really happening was being covered up, or even not fully realized by the Chinese so January 3rd as a date of failure to act on the US, or other world government's part, is an unrealistic expectation.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/13/fauci_chinese_misinformation_delayed_us_response_to_coronavirus.html

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top infectious diseases expert on the White House coronavirus task force, appeared on MSNBC Sunday evening to speak about when the administration concluded that coronavirus was a threat and how Chinese "misinformation" about whether the virus could spread person-to-person delayed the U.S. response.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/21/who-raises-possibility-of-sustained-human-to-human-transmission-of-new-virus-in-china/

This is from January 21.  And is quoting the WHO indicating they think it could be worse but it still needs more analysis.

- Again, not arguing about the actions taken, just that the January 3rd date you identify as a date of failure to act is too early.

The World Health Organization on Tuesday raised the possibility that the new virus spreading in parts of China may be transmitting in an ongoing, sustained manner between people — which, if confirmed, would make it significantly more difficult to stop.

The agency’s Western Pacific Regional office, which covers China and neighboring countries, said on Twitter that new information “suggests there may now be sustained human-to-human transmission.”

“But more information and analysis,” it added, “are needed on this new virus to understand the full extent of human-to-human transmission and other important details.”

 

Look, I'm not going to belabor the point any further and this will be my final post on the topic in this thread. From the moment that phone call was made, alarm bells should have started going off. Very soon thereafter, our own intelligence was reporting shit was going down in China. The WHO is a flawed agency in that it can only go off what UN member nations, including China, tell it. Therefore, we shouldn't solely rely on them for our information and the fact of the matter is we don't. We are the most powerful nation with the most sophisticated intelligence apparatus in the world. The National Medical Intelligence Center knew and tried to warn us in early January at the latest. That's been verified and documented. There are other reports that it may have even been earlier.

I'll say nothing more on the matter. 

[stone oak 639]

9 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

3. Masks are worn until the virus has been effectively defeated.

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.com/mask-respirators/surgical-cotton-masks-equally-ineffective-blocking-covid-19-spread-say-investigators

Quote

Surgical, Cotton Masks Equally Ineffective in Blocking COVID-19 Spread, Say Investigators

Surgical and cotton masks are both ineffective when it comes to blocking droplets of the virus SARS–CoV-2 that may be generated when somebody coughs, according to investigators with the Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea. Their research letter, published yesterday in the Annals of Internal Medicine, compared the 2 types of masks. Four patients coughed 5 times each into a petri dish while wearing no mask. They then coughed 5 times wearing a surgical mask, a cotton mask, and then, again, wearing no mask. The study, conducted at 2 hospitals in Seoul, found that when patients coughed into either type of mask, droplets of SARS–CoV-2 were released into the environment.

“The median viral loads after coughs without a mask, with a surgical mask, and with a cotton mask were 2.56 log copies/mL, 2.42 log copies/mL, and 1.85 log copies/mL, respectively,” the research letter states. “All swabs from the outer mask surfaces of the masks were positive for SARS–CoV-2, whereas most swabs from the inner mask surfaces were negative.”

The study did not include the N95 masks, which are in short supply these days and which infection preventionists and other healthcare workers desperately need on the frontlines of the battle against COVID-19. 

The masks were swabbed with Dacron swabs; the outer and inner surfaces of both the surgical and cotton masks. The researchers found SARS COV-2 on all surfaces. 

The results come after the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently said that people should wear cloth masks in public to help contain the spread of the disease from asymptomatic carriers. The CDC thinks that the masks will help in situations where social distancing—staying at least 6 feet apart—is difficult to do; settings such as grocery stores and pharmacies. This represents a change in policy, where the CDC, as well as the World Health Organization (WHO), said that masks are not necessary for people who are not exhibiting symptoms. “If you are healthy, you only need to wear a mask if you are taking care of a person with suspected 2019-nCoV infection,” the WHO still says on its website.

The research letter investigators found greater contamination on the outer surface of the face masks than on the inner surfaces. 

“Although it is possible that virus particles may cross from the inner to the outer surface because of the physical pressure of swabbing, we swabbed the outer surface before the inner surface,” the research letter states. “The consistent finding of virus on the outer mask surface is unlikely to have been caused by experimental error or artifact.”

It’s possible that the aerodynamic properties of the masks may account for this. “A turbulent jet due to air leakage around the mask edge could contaminate the outer surface,” the research letter states. “Alternatively, the small aerosols of SARS–CoV-2 generated during a high-velocity cough might penetrate the masks.” 

However, the investigators say that this hypothesis works only if the coughing patient didn’t exhale large-sized SARS–CoV-2 particles. They’d be trapped in the inner mask even with a high-velocity cough. 

“These observations support the importance of hand hygiene after touching the outer surface of masks,” investigators conclude.

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

33 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Testing. Testing.  Testing.  That is the difference.

Norway, for example, has been very successful:

Germany (and this article is almost 2 weeks old):

Readily available testing, including testing of people with mild symptoms and people who have simply been exposed to known infected people, helps you do two very important things.

FIRST, it helps you quarantine the infected so they don't spread the infection.  This is huge.  This is absolutely necessary for us to do in order to "open the economy back up," which I think most everyone agrees, we HAVE to do.  If we have lots of testing, then we can isolate little fires where they start, and keep them from becoming huge wildfires.

SECOND, it helps us understand the ultimate effects of the disease much better.  We talk about case fatality rate on here all the time, and again, pretty much everyone has acknowledged that we don't have any good idea what it is.  I mean, we all acknowledge that a 3% CFR is clearly not accurate, and is too high.  We also acknowledge that the CFR is almost certainly materially higher than the seasonal flu.  But how much so?  That matters.  There's a lot of room between .1% and 3%.  Norway, for example, has a CFR of .45%, based on their data.  Why is that?

We need to know this.  We really, really need to know this.  If we can live in a world where these three things are true:

1 -- the CFR is something like .5% (so, 5X the seasonal flu, but not insanely higher)

2 -- we can test lots of people, and isolate outbreaks before they spread significantly, and to keep them from spiking and overwhelming resources

3 -- we can improve therapies to reduce the CFR even 20% (so, maybe take it from .5% to .4%).......

THEN we can develop a plan for opening up activities and getting society and the economy moving again, with some changes and restrictions that may feel weird, but will allow us to function and earn a living, and that plan can carry us until a vaccine becomes available.

Make me America's COVID Czar, and that's my plan.  Note that it all comes down to testing, testing, testing.  And it's followed by bulking up CDC boots on the ground (most likely by "deputizing" or delegating to existing local authorities) to perform such testing AND the contact tracing that must follow.  On a parallel track, pursuing great-guns (including full cooperation with everyone else across the world) treatment therapies and vaccines, including spending money to get facilities ready to produce vaccines (knowing that some of that money will be wasted -- that's the breaks -- I'd happily "waste" $100 million to fast-track a plan to save the country a coupla trillion).

Testing.  Testing.  Testing.  Chant it in your sleep.  It's the key.

Still showing outliers.  But yes testing is one of the things we should have been doing sooner.  Going beyond this will start to get into the political motivations for many on the topic.  I'd  like to see the actual time line of what people said and when they said it.  Dr. Faucci was making statements that didn't portend what has since gone down in late February, and early March.  Meaning I don't think he knew what was really going on yet, and what would/could go down.

[aggie08 21432]

3 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Dude, you should totally tell me to fuck off one more time, that way I'll really understand that you mean business. Seriously.

Yep, it's definitely me taking this thread way too fucking personally. You got me.

[dcar00 14035]

2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Not a popular opinion, but I'm giving everyone involved in this crisis a huge benefit of the doubt. I know the American Way is to get pissed at our government and point fingers of blame & armchair QB everything...BUT...making broad sweeping changes/orders early in the game would have been catastrophic. Imagine the panic that would have occurred if I told you on January 15th that on March 17th, you would be "locked in place" and this would have been going on for 4-6 weeks with little end in sight. The response would have been insane. 

Sometimes, shit has to hit the fan before people do the right thing.

I said this from the beginning.  it had to be slow rolled to some extent.  China fucked us, then we didn't shut down all inbound traffic, then CDC fucked up the test, NYC probably should have shut down the subway and quarantined early but I totally understand why it likely wasn't possible.  the first 3 things were bad and 2 were in our control.

we had to have the populace remain calm until we could intercept and bolster the supply lines.  

the OMG shit about not having 100K vents stockpiled, etc. was decades in the making.

it was never going to be 2M or even 1M but it had a good chance of being 200 to 300K or so with multiple major cities/states overrun because they are poorly run and broke.

we got lucky with Swine that the olds seemed to have some immunity and it wasn't as highly transmissive.  this was bad because olds are getting hammered and by their very nature are going to be much more vulnerable.

I truly believe everyone has done their dead level best(fed/state/city) and I also believe this will come in under 100K dead this year(which sucks but could potentially have been worse). I also believe the outcome would have been pretty much the same regardless of who would have been in charge because I believe in our smart guys to do phenomenal work under pressure. 

 

[Dahobbs 17447]

29 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Not a popular opinion, but I'm giving everyone involved in this crisis a huge benefit of the doubt. I know the American Way is to get pissed at our government and point fingers of blame & armchair QB everything...BUT...making broad sweeping changes/orders early in the game would have been catastrophic. Imagine the panic that would have occurred if I told you on January 15th that on March 17th, you would be "locked in place" and this would have been going on for 4-6 weeks with little end in sight. The response would have been insane. 

Sometimes, shit has to hit the fan before people do the right thing.

Well, except, at least for the folks on this thread, China. 

Anyway, I don't think we needed to stop all travel or do a shutdown in January or February. We just needed to be gearing up so that we could do the things South Korea, Norway, and now Germany are doing: rapid identification, testing, and isolation of infected individuals. You do that, and the disease doesn't get crazy out of control, individual and societal risk stays low, and no shut down is necessary. We had more warning than most, that should have been doable. Regardless, it is still the only real path forward to allow us to reopen and keep our healthcare system from being overwhelmed. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by Dahobbs

[MAUFRAIS 6573]

No shit. My wife is taking a vacuum in for repair today. Essential and such.

Maybe she’s getting a new identity.

[Loco 3752]

So this keeps happening... really hope these are the results of wonky tests...  but as the numbers rise that seems less and less likely.

 

[ABSR 5289]

10 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Look, I'm not going to belabor the point any further and this will be my final post on the topic in this thread. From the moment that phone call was made, alarm bells should have started going off. Very soon thereafter, our own intelligence was reporting shit was going down in China. The WHO is a flawed agency in that it can only go off what UN member nations, including China, tell it. Therefore, we shouldn't solely rely on them for our information and the fact of the matter is we don't. We are the most powerful nation with the most sophisticated intelligence apparatus in the world. The National Medical Intelligence Center knew and tried to warn us in early January at the latest. That's been verified and documented. There are other reports that it may have even been earlier.

I'll say nothing more on the matter. 

As a Non-CR thread, here's what I believe most of us think you should have said.

"Yes, the January 3rd date I put out was likely too early, but I stand by my assertion that we did not act quick enough regardless of the date."

I too will say nothing more on the matter. 

[atomheartbevo 89425]

13 hours ago, po elvis said:

Imagine a press conference on January 3 that we are going to shut down all non essential travel, non essential businesses, restaurants, bars, all sports, basically most of the economy. I am sure that would have been an easy sell in America. It would never happen. It wouldn't have been able to happen on February 3.

Going forward, unless it takes another century for something similar, it will be easier to get things slowed down earlier.  Hell, if people start wearing masks, washing hands rigorously, and sanitizing better, we might not have to reach the total shutdown scenario.  

[Brisketexan 104605]

12 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I also believe the outcome would have been pretty much the same regardless of who would have been in charge because I believe in our smart guys to do phenomenal work under pressure. 

I believe in our smart guys.

But I believe they can absolutely be hamstrung by who is in charge and what they do.  I won't go CR.  But leadership matters.  Someone has to listen to the smart guys, and someone has to use the force of law and the power of the governmental apparatus to make the smart guys' ideas happen on a broad scale.

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

26 minutes ago, Longhorn94 said:

Fuck China for how they handled this. Fuck the US Government for how they continue to handle this. 

No one from my family will venture out into the world until:

1. Widespread and readily available testing is put in place so we can isolate and contact trace;

2. Effective therapies have been developed that reduce the risk of serious illness; and

3. Masks are worn until the virus has been effectively defeated.

 

 

Not at all trying to be a dick here, but do y’all have some special health problems or comorbidities that make you susceptible to serious harm from this thing? Because 2 alone might not ever happen/might be years away (viruses are hard to treat or cure). 

Are you prepared to keep your family completely locked down for 12-18 months? 

[gmr548 16510]

So this keeps happening... really hope these are the results of wonky tests...  but as the numbers rise that seems less and less likely.
 

DRs have estimated there's a pretty significant false negative rate, I've seen between 20-40 percent quoted. Between that and not really knowing how long it takes to completely leave the system, it's very possible that these are the original nfections just hanging on longer than realized. Absolutely something that should be looked into though. A change to our assumptions surrounding immunity would have huge implications.