Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[gmr548 16,503]

IMO we are probably at 20M+ right now.  trending to 25M+

That feels plausible given the death count of a little over 30k. At a 0.5 percent morality rate that's about six million cases. Double it a couple times to account for the lag of 2-3 weeks. That's 24mm. Skewed towards certain areas obviously, but feels in the ballpark.

[stork642 4,498]

10 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

I see the CR addicts were in serious need of a fix and we obliged.

It might be just my perception but I imagine these CR savants are really only about 3 different individuals with 5-6 socks per just giving themselves rep while continually reinforcing that their views are just unquestionably without fault.  At some point they can’t hold it in any longer and  must share their divine insights with rest of Surly.   I say that if you post in CR you should have to quarantine for 14 days before being able to post in any other thread.  

[Wulaw Horn 18,980]

36 minutes ago, LABEVO said:

 

This is so like the Great Depression it's scary. You had farmers refusing to plant crops or burying and burning them because it wasn't worth their while to ship, while people in the cities were dying of starvation.  That is the one thing I never have been able to understand about what happened during the depression but apparently it wasn't limited intelligence from people in the 1930's to fix the problem as it's cropping up again. 
Anyone got a good explanation on why this can happen and/or how to fix it?

[Hmmm 155]

8 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

I believe I've sussed out one agenda but am still waiting for someone to offer a substantive response.  

If you have something to offer I'm happy to listen.  Or you could just insult me.

let's say it started in a wet market. would that change your line of thinking?  should we not attempt to shut down wet markets if that's the case?

[DDD Dad 14,251]

1 minute ago, Hmmm said:

let's say it started in a wet market. would that change your line of thinking?  should we not attempt to shut down wet markets if that's the case?

I think most of the scientific community has been operating under that assumption for months.  Unfortunately your question begs a political discussion that would not be appropriate here.

[Hmmm 155]

is this what CR feels like?  going to take a shower now.

[Wulaw Horn 18,980]

17 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

IMO more like 20M now 30K so .15.  High side of flu but transmits faster that seasonal flu and slams the old pretty hard.  hospitalization seems much longer.

Yep.  That seems about right.

 

[BillyGoatHill 4,276]

18 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

It will tell us where to point our nukes.

[dcar00 14,035]

Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

Yep.  That seems about right.

 

I found this funny from the article.  so we have the KIF(Karen Infection Rate)

The researchers did note that the study had several limitations, including that participants had to have access to Facebook and a car to attend drive-through testing sites. Those factors resulted in an over-representation of white women between the ages of 19 and 64,

[Captainant 27,447]

1 minute ago, Hmmm said:

let's say it started in a wet market. would that change your line of thinking?  should we not attempt to shut down wet markets if that's the case?

We definitely should be shutting down wet markets, and they're fucking abhorrent. The virus very probably did originate out of a wet market, but that's a pretty far-away problem considering the issues we're still facing domestically such as severe lack of testing at a national level and state governments saying "fuck it" and reopening beaches when we have good reason to believe that doing so will lead to more outbreaks.

14 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

Yep, fuck the WHO. 

Yeah, fuck that completely unaccountable and non-national entity that has absolutely no control on domestic actions! They are definitely the most powerful entity in the US and were the decisive factor in how we handled things.

[dcar00 14,035]

Just now, Captainant said:

We definitely should be shutting down wet markets, and they're fucking abhorrent. The virus very probably did originate out of a wet market, but that's a pretty far-away problem considering the issues we're still facing domestically such as severe lack of testing at a national level and state governments saying "fuck it" and reopening beaches when we have good reason to believe that doing so will lead to more outbreaks.

Yeah, fuck that completely unaccountable and non-national entity that has absolutely no control on domestic actions! They are definitely the most powerful entity in the US and were the decisive factor in how we handled things.

I may need to call the "qualifier" police...

[Wulaw Horn 18,980]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

I found this funny from the article.  so we have the KIF(Karen Infection Rate)

The researchers did note that the study had several limitations, including that participants had to have access to Facebook and a car to attend drive-through testing sites. Those factors resulted in an over-representation of white women between the ages of 19 and 64,

That is awesome.

[Hate 20,103]

Sure, I'm genuinely curious as to how the outbreak started.  But I don't see any point in it being a focus of this discussion.

It’s news Dad. This is a news thread until the inevitable turds in the punch bowl show up every once in a while to regale us with their intellect.

[EuroHorn 3,204]

51 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

I see the CR addicts were in serious need of a fix and we obliged.

They get tired of agreeing with each other everyday in the echo chamber.  Occasionally they venture out into the regular world. I don’t mind, they’re entertaining to watch  in either place. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by EuroHorn

[Captainant 27,447]

3 hours ago, dcar00 said:

exactly.  Why the fuck was Fauci saying go on about your business on March 1st?

Just getting around to adding the context you removed from this quote. Fauci's full statement was:

Quote

Alexander: "So, Dr. Fauci, it’s Saturday morning in America. People are waking up right now with real concerns about this. They want to go to malls and movies, maybe the gym as well. Should we be changing our habits and, if so, how?"

Fauci: "No. Right now, at this moment, there’s no need to change anything that you’re doing on a day by day basis. Right now the risk is still low, but this could change. I’ve said that many times even on this program. You’ve got to watch out because although the risk is low now, you don’t need to change anything you’re doing. When you start to see community spread, this could change and force you to become much more attentive to doing things that would protect you from spread."

Welker: "Dr. Fauci, quickly, how does this all end?"

Fauci: "You know, it ends if you -- it depends on the nature of the outbreak. I mean, this could be a major outbreak. I hope not. Or it could be something that’s reasonably well controlled. At the end of the day, this will ultimately go down. Hopefully we could protect the American public from any serious degree of morbidity or mortality. That’s the reason why we’ve got to do the things that we have in our plan."

Pushing the line that "Fauci said we didn't have anything to worry about" is absolutely pushing a propaganda line. That whole thing started out of twitter from a congressional candidate that was retweeted by the president, and became fuel for the #FireFauci activity last week.

[justhookit 4,178]

24 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

the FDA commissioner in the article said they think right now it is about 5% nationwide.  thats 16.5M or so and he says could be higher in places like NYC.   when the crazies were saying this is hundreds of thousands will die I said about 80K to 120K.

 

I may have come across harshly I was just trying to say that you were guessing. I know you’ve been reasonable.

[pacman 7,328]

27 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

We drive past 50,000 traffic fatalities every year  

Seat belt laws

Speed limits

Checkpoints

Etc.

Nobody cares?

[workswithseed 2,035]

3 hours ago, Captainant said:

Fox is currently defending a lawsuit on their coverage of COVID-19 as 1st amendment protected speech because "false and outrageous speech are protected". They're objectively biased and prone to non-factual reporting. They're literally arguing that in federal court in their own defense. Fuck me for not taking anything they say seriously, right?

God, this is how I feel over on cr. It feels good to be on the other side of that neg rep pile on.

[Mole 4,320]

24 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

We drive past 50,000 traffic fatalities every year on the way to work

Not to be too pedantic (I aim for just slightly pedantic), we haven’t been above 50,000/year for about 40 years.

[EuroHorn 3,204]

This is the WHO on Feb 4th 

 

Quote

At a WHO briefing, Tedros urged that there be no travel bans. "We reiterate our call to all countries not to impose restrictions that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade. Such restrictions can have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit. ... Where such measures have been implemented, we urge that they are short in duration, proportionate to the public health risks and are reconsidered regularly as the situation evolves."

 

Edited April 17, 2020 by EuroHorn

[Wulaw Horn 18,980]

12 minutes ago, Mole said:

Not to be too pedantic (I aim for just slightly pedantic), we haven’t been above 50,000/year for about 40 years.

40,000?  I guess MADD is working huh? Along with seatbelts?

[Constant 6,722]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

40,000?  I guess MADD is working huh? Along with seatbelts?

Well, considering there are over 200 million licensed drivers...I’d say we’re doing pretty well. 

[Wulaw Horn 18,980]

15 minutes ago, pacman said:

Seat belt laws

Speed limits

Checkpoints

Etc.

Nobody cares?

Speed limits keep creeping up- since I've been alive they've gone from 55, 70, 75.  OK- we care a little bit- especially if the state can find a way to generate revenue out of the deal at the same time, but we don't care enough, as citizens, to alter our behavior in such a way that we don't drive/do so more safely.

When the anti drunk driving campaign isn't "don't drink and drive- someone might die" but rather "don't drink and drive it will cost you a bunch of money and hassle" I think that proves my point that we aren't altogether worried about safety on the road ways as individual citizens. You are talking about government action. when I talk about "we" don't care I mean collectively as a citizenry.  

[bolverk 29,399]

54 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

They better.  All I’m doing is dealing with tenants who claim they shouldn’t have to pay rent because they are forced to stay home.  We make it clear the buildings aren’t closed.  The order has nothing to do with us.

 

41 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

This is so like the Great Depression it's scary. You had farmers refusing to plant crops or burying and burning them because it wasn't worth their while to ship, while people in the cities were dying of starvation.  That is the one thing I never have been able to understand about what happened during the depression but apparently it wasn't limited intelligence from people in the 1930's to fix the problem as it's cropping up again. 
Anyone got a good explanation on why this can happen and/or how to fix it?

Maybe we can shift the discussion to these two important topics.

1) We have businesses that may/may not be income producing at the moment unable (maybe unwilling for those doing the WFH home thing) refusing to pay rent which in turn makes folks like Bruin (building owner?) unable to pay his investors/lenders. Is the Fed the backstop that they would go to? If so, then are we the taxpayer on the tab?

2) From my very limited understanding, prior to the outbreaks at food processing plants, it seemed like the problem was not the product or the production, but in the specific packaging for the product to meet an increase in demand that goes to individual consumers at the store versus the bulk packaging for restaurants, schools etc. Now, it looks like we could potentially have a real crisis if the production workers themselves are unwilling or unable to go to work.

Both of those are bad. What's the answer here fellas?

[Wulaw Horn 18,980]

Just now, Constant said:

Well, considering there are over 200 million licensed drivers...I’d say we’re doing pretty well. 

I wasn't being flippant.  I was legitimately impressed. 

[DeweyCox 366]

52 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

Yep, fuck the WHO. 

It’s an eminence front

[Js1 85,104]

55 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

We drive past 50,000 traffic fatalities every year on the way to work and "walk past" 30-70k flu deaths every year on the way to work and nobody gives a shit.  Is his contention that we can't fade 200,000 deaths?  Or that if the standard death rate for a year increases by 7% that America will revolt?

That's so absurd. It's like baseball- you can't tell the difference between a 280 hitter and a 300 hitter by watching them- you just can't. You have to categorize and write down the information  and compute it b/c it works out to about 1 extra singe every other week throughout the course of a baseball season.

Same here- if deaths in America went from 3,000,000 a year to 3,200,000 a year absofuckinglutely nobody would notice and it wouldn't affect jack shit b/c we aren't capable of noticing such a change through our senses. It would have to be something we counted to figure out and there sure as shit wouldn't be corpses stacked up in the street.

Now, the what if it's a whataburger line is pretty awesome.

Note- for those who refuse to do reading comprehension- I'm not arguing 250,000 extra deaths this year don't matter- I'm arguing that in a country as big as the USA there's no way the average guy on the street would fucking notice the difference with the naked eye and it wouldn't be a harbinger of zombie invasion. 

Traffic accidents arent contagious. 

[0xdeadbeef 1,626]

3 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I'm guessing this meat-head doesn't know a 6 foot radius from a 6 foot diameter. 

 

 

[gmr548 16,503]

Traffic accidents arent contagious. 

God damn I was about to say the same thing. Fundamentally bad comparison.

[KYHorn 16,862]

1 hour ago, DDD Dad said:

Sure, I'm genuinely curious as to how the outbreak started.  But I don't see any point in it being a focus of this discussion.

Why are you genuinely curious? Because anyone naturally would be, that's a major motivation for discussing it. Just like others here, who have not made it "a focus of this discussion". I think your posts in the past few hours account for a significant portion of the discussion on the topic. It has been a tangential discussion in this 700 page thread.

If China lied about it, it's big news and is a completely relevant topic for this thread. If it starts getting into discussions about what our political leaders should do about it, then yes, most of that probably belongs in the CR. I think that's part of your point, but I've read Little Red Riding Hood, so I'm not falling for that trick. 

[Guadaloopy 10,921]

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I wasn't being flippant.  I was legitimately impressed. 

It is very impressive that traffic fatalities have an overall decline over recent decades despite almost continuous growth in both numbers of cars on the road and miles driven.  

[dcar00 14,035]

32 minutes ago, justhookit said:

I may have come across harshly I was just trying to say that you were guessing. I know you’ve been reasonable.

I would say "edumacated" guessing is certainly fair.

[0xdeadbeef 1,626]

7 hours ago, Viper said:

great the glass just fell out of my shower door yesterday and I have to figure out how to fix it. gonna have to find my old camping mask (that will block basically nothing) to be let into the store now?

I kid you not. Just inside the Home Depot I went to they had a table with a hand written sign that said "DIY Masks".  The table had a roll of non-perforated paper towels and tape.

 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,010]

50 minutes ago, Hmmm said:

is this what CR feels like?  going to take a shower now.

You can’t wash it off.

[Wulaw Horn 18,980]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Traffic accidents arent contagious. 

I didn't say they were. Look man, I like you and always have from the shag, even when I disagreed with you, because you can listen to an argument and respond to that argument, so I'm not going to jump all over you, but please look at the context. I was responding to a post where the guy said American's wouldn't go to work and walk past 100,000's of thousands of deaths because there would be corpses on the street and we wouldn't stand for it. 

I was saying- this isn't true b/c 1) we wouldn't even notice those deaths if there wasn't a death counter b/c the human mind is incapable of distinguishing between 3,000,000 of something happening in a year and 3,200,000 of something happening in a year without being told, and even then it isn't intuitive; and

2) we ignore lots of activities that bring lots of deaths all the time in America.

I was nowhere close to saying Corona equals traffic deaths in the context of my post.  Be better.  Context matters. 

[gmr548 16,503]

It might be just my perception but I imagine these CR savants are really only about 3 different individuals with 5-6 socks per just giving themselves rep while continually reinforcing that their views are just unquestionably without fault.  At some point they can’t hold it in any longer and  must share their divine insights with rest of Surly.   I say that if you post in CR you should have to quarantine for 14 days before being able to post in any other thread.  

For every post in here with a political inclination there's two or three whining incessantly. Neg and move on. If you think it's attention seeking trolling, don't engage. That's a universal rule.

We drive past 50,000 traffic fatalities every year on the way to work and "walk past" 30-70k flu deaths every year on the way to work and nobody gives a shit.  Is his contention that we can't fade 200,000 deaths?  Or that if the standard death rate for a year increases by 7% that America will revolt?
That's so absurd. It's like baseball- you can't tell the difference between a 280 hitter and a 300 hitter by watching them- you just can't. You have to categorize and write down the information  and compute it b/c it works out to about 1 extra singe every other week throughout the course of a baseball season.
Same here- if deaths in America went from 3,000,000 a year to 3,200,000 a year absofuckinglutely nobody would notice and it wouldn't affect jack shit b/c we aren't capable of noticing such a change through our senses. It would have to be something we counted to figure out and there sure as shit wouldn't be corpses stacked up in the street.
Now, the what if it's a whataburger line is pretty awesome.
Note- for those who refuse to do reading comprehension- I'm not arguing 250,000 extra deaths this year don't matter- I'm arguing that in a country as big as the USA there's no way the average guy on the street would fucking notice the difference with the naked eye and it wouldn't be a harbinger of zombie invasion. 

Millions would notice the loss of their parents, grandparents, kids, siblings, other family, friends, co-workers, whatever. But yeah beyond that I guess no one would care.

Of course the world keeps spinning but that's not a reason to shrug off preventable deaths.

[dcar00 14,035]

12 minutes ago, Constant said:

Well, considering there are over 200 million licensed drivers...I’d say we’re doing pretty well. 

yeah but whats it AIFR?

[DDD Dad 14,251]

Just now, KYHorn said:

Why are you genuinely curious? Because anyone naturally would be, that's a major motivation for discussing it. Just like others here, who have not made it "a focus of this discussion". I think your posts in the past few hours account for a significant portion of the discussion on the topic. It has been a tangential discussion in this 700 page thread.

If China lied about it, it's big news and is a completely relevant topic for this thread. If it starts getting into discussions about what our political leaders should do about it, then yes, most of that probably belongs in the CR. I think that's part of your point, but I've read Little Red Riding Hood, so I'm not falling for that trick. 

OK I'll let the thread drift die.  (I have a feeling that others won't).

To your second point, it's pretty clear China has been lying about much of its experience.  If you happened to catch yesterday's NYT podcast "The Daily" they spent a full episode interviewing one of their reporters who had been expelled.  Much of what China has done mirrors in some respects what appears to be happening on this side with the pointing of fingers at them.  (They have suggested, among other things, that the U.S. Military brought the virus to China last year during war games).

I'll just leave it at that without seeking to provoke a CR debate.

[Wulaw Horn 18,980]

6 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

God damn I was about to say the same thing. Fundamentally bad comparison.

Read my post to JS about context. You misread that completely.  I wasn't saying corona deaths equal traffic deaths. I was saying Americans can ignore lots of deaths when they feel like it. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

Just now, 0xdeadbeef said:

I kid you not. Just inside the Home Depot I went to they had a table with a hand written sign that said "DIY Masks".  The table had a roll of non-perforated paper towels and tape.

 

More savings, More dying. 

[Trey3216 15,325]

1 hour ago, DDD Dad said:

I just don't see the point of making it the focus of what should be an apolitical discussion of an ongoing crisis.  How does chasing down theories of its origin help us find a vaccine or successful treatment protocols?  What does it do to advance our understanding of how to address pandemics in the future other than to say that China is a bad actor?  We already know that.

Sure, I'm genuinely curious as to how the outbreak started.  But I don't see any point in it being a focus of this discussion.

Because there are just as many fucktards in this country that believe China only had 3000 or so deaths from this thing as there are that believe it’s just another flu 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,010]

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Traffic accidents arent contagious. 

I mean, a few are.

[Wulaw Horn 18,980]

2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

 

For every post in here with a political inclination there's two or three whining incessantly. Neg and move on. If you think it's attention seeking trolling, don't engage. That's a universal rule.




Millions would notice the loss of their parents, grandparents, kids, siblings, other family, friends, co-workers, whatever. But yeah beyond that I guess no one would care.

Of course the world keeps spinning but that's not a reason to shrug off preventable deaths.

 

 

I"m not making a value judgement about whether or not we should or should not shrug off preventable deaths, what I'm saying is that its demonstrative fact that we, collectively, as a society, do exactly this. If we didn't then we'd all be basket cases and totally and completely be unable to get anything accomplished. The world is a nasty, awful terrible place full of all manner of death and depravity, and if you could feel the weight of that every day it would crush you physically, mentally and spiritually.  So, we shrink the world down to people in our social circle that we care a lot about and another social circle that we care a little about and then everyone else that we do little more than pay lip service to, or that we emote with if it somehow gets brought into our circle. It's like watching the ripples in a pond after you drop a rock in there- it's just how we are wired.

And that doesn't mean we shouldn't try to prevent all sorts of bad shit wherever we can. I'm not arguing against that. I'm arguing against the idea that we can't/won't collectively shrug this off and get on with our life b/c the world does keep on spinning. It just is. And that tweet got that wrong. Not in a moral sense but in an  absolute sense. 

[Incredulity 11,564]

5 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

I mean, a few are.

Also, capricious.

[Homercles 10,205]

2 hours ago, GringoSalado said:

In addition to ignoring Cable News (I highly recommend it), I also never rely on Facebook for any real information beyond birthdays & etc. (also highly recommended). My info on this theory is all from this thread where it has been noted that 

1) bats that carry the virus are not trafficked in the Wet Market, and not found in the region

2) except for inside the Wuhan virology lab

 

That seems like a pretty solid coincidence, and is all I'm going off of. Not Facebook. Not Fox. I only read surl.

Has anyone posted any links to this outside that video?

[BillyGoatHill 4,276]

24 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Traffic accidents arent contagious. 

Umm,...Never worked Fire or EMS, right?

[Incredulity 11,564]

Whats the source for the bats not being sold at the Wuhan wet markets?

Those wet markets don’t strike me as having robust supply chain tracking capabilities.

[BillyGoatHill 4,276]

3 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Whats the source for the bats not being sold at the Wuhan wet markets?

Those wet markets don’t strike me as having robust supply chain tracking capabilities.

[Iceman 2,639]

25 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

You can’t wash it off.

user name checks out...

[Bevo 13,526]

2 hours ago, XYZ said:

The USA doesn’t have one of the highest obesity rates in the world. It has THE highest.

Clearly, quarantines are a bad idea then. When this thing started, I was working out regularly and was pretty thin. Now I have nothing better to do than cook and eat. I would include sex, but that generally takes two unmarried people. Anyway, at this point, my scale gives me a dirty look and clearly thinks, "You better not step on me, motherfucker".