Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Dahobbs 17,437]

7 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Maybe,  but there are certainly a lot of people saying we should have reacted in January.   You do realize that right ? 

I'd say your comment is off the mark if you look at NYC.  By January it was already getting ready to boil over.  The huge numbers bear that out I believe.

Reacted in January doesn't mean shutdown. We should have reacted. We should have been preparing in January and February and early March.  We only had to shutdown because we didn't react properly. 

You can generate every single current case (reported and estimated) by starting with one case in mid January and doubling it ever 3-5 days (the observed doubling period). I doubt NYC had more than a handful of cases in January. 

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

Just now, Casual Encounter said:

Explain to me why it matters how they died? 
 

I’ll shut up and listen (but not really). /DDD

I got a bet on the number of actual dead down in Vegas, that's why dammit !!

[FartingMonk 3,606]

31 minutes ago, po elvis said:

At the risk of being a cunt bag, I had to read this 3 times to figure out what you were trying to say.

Haha.  My bad.  He negged me for asking a question.  I was simply wondering how a lot of people are saying we should have locked down immediately.  I was just asking how much push back that was going to have if we would have done it early.  We need body counts before people would actually take it seriously is my opinion

[utee94 15,745]

1 minute ago, FartingMonk said:

Haha.  My bad.  He negged me for asking a question.  I was simply wondering how a lot of people are saying we should have locked down immediately.  I was just asking how much push back that was going to have if we would have done it early.  We need body counts before people would actually take it seriously is my opinion

I figured out what you were saying.

And I appreciated your artful response.

Even if it might have been a slight overreaction.

 

 

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

Reacted in January doesn't mean shutdown. We should have reacted. We should have been preparing in January and February and early March.  We only had to shutdown because we didn't react properly. 

You can generate every single current case (reported and estimated) by starting with one case in mid January and doubling it ever 3-5 days (the observed doubling period). I doubt NYC had more than a handful of cases in January. 

OK, The only way you were going to stem the tide in NYC was to shut down the subways, and close restaurants by mid January.  Unless of course we've been being lied to about how this thing spreads so rapidly (which we haven't I believe).

Actual cases maybe not,  but people with the virus,  but not showing signs yet, a lot more than a hand full of cases.

And there are still loads of folks saying we should have reacted in January on a national level.

[FartingMonk 3,606]

2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I figured out what you were saying.

And I appreciated your artful response.

Even if it might have been a slight overreaction.

 

 

I take back calling him a fuck face.  But I fully stand my ground that he is in fact a cunt bag

[Liquor and Poker 3,659]

If Colt hadn’t run that stupid QB run in 2009...

[Bevo 13,524]

5 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I take back calling him a fuck face.  But I fully stand my ground that he is in fact a cunt bag

That's not your ground.

[DDD Dad 14,250]

24 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

Just in the interest of watching you make more of a fool of yourself, what agenda do you think you think you actually “sussed out”? I don’t think I ever noticed you before, besides your random neg reps on this thread, but watching you pull the bookshelf on top of yourself repeatedly on this thread over the last 24 hours has been absurdly hilarious. 

Project much, Derel?

[Dahobbs 17,437]

 

2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

OK, The only way you were going to stem the tide in NYC was to shut down the subways, and close restaurants by mid January.  Unless of course we've been being lied to about how this thing spreads so rapidly (which we haven't I believe).

Actual cases maybe not,  but people with the virus,  but not showing signs yet, a lot more than a hand full of cases.

And there are still loads of folks saying we should have reacted in January on a national level.

Yes, we should have responded on a national level in January. That doesn't mean we should have shut down. There would have been no point to that in January as the virus wasn't widespread. 

Again, start with 1 case (person with the virus) on January 10 and then double ever 5 to three days through March 20 (when we really started shutting down). You end up with up to 10 million cases.  Based on the observed spread rate of the virus, there is simply no need for it to have been present in any significant level in January.  

[Message Board User 12,389]

 

Edited April 18, 2020 by Message Board User

[Hate 20,103]

^^^^For those that do not "get" the above pic, click on the tweet.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

No you fuck face.  The exact opposite you stupid dipshit.  I'm simply asking if we were ordered to shelter in place in January would we as Americans would have told the President to pack sand.  Is that more clear now you cunt bag

lol. Can’t believe someone probably in their 40s is even capable of a post like this when it’s 8am On a Saturday.

[GreenspointTexas 9,559]

Are there actually any scientists or epidemiologists out there that are saying its safe to reopen the country at this point? Or even close to safe?

[EuroHorn 3,204]

26 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

OK, The only way you were going to stem the tide in NYC was to shut down the subways, and close restaurants by mid January.  Unless of course we've been being lied to about how this thing spreads so rapidly (which we haven't I believe).

Actual cases maybe not,  but people with the virus,  but not showing signs yet, a lot more than a hand full of cases.

And there are still loads of folks saying we should have reacted in January on a national level.

Back in January most everyone was saying this was about the same as the typical Flu.  Even the WHO was downplaying 

Jan. 14

WHO officials gave conflicting signals about whether there is human-to-human transmission. At a press conference in Geneva, Maria Van Kerkhove of WHO's emerging diseases unit told a Reuters reporter: "From the information that we have it is possible that there is limited human-to-human transmission, potentially among families, but it is very clear right now that we have no sustained human-to-human transmission." However, that same day WHO  tweeted a different take, stating that "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China" and also told an NPR reporter that Van Kerkhove had been misunderstood and there was in fact no evidence of human-to-human transmission.

Jan. 23

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a statement that it was too early to declare the coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency of international concern. "Make no mistake. This is an emergency in China, but it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one."

 

 

[Loco 3,752]

14 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Are there actually any scientists or epidemiologists out there that are saying its safe to reopen the country at this point? Or even close to safe?

Edited April 18, 2020 by Loco

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

Reacted in January doesn't mean shutdown. We should have reacted. We should have been preparing in January and February and early March.  We only had to shutdown because we didn't react properly. 
You can generate every single current case (reported and estimated) by starting with one case in mid January and doubling it ever 3-5 days (the observed doubling period). I doubt NYC had more than a handful of cases in January. 

C’mon.... in January(id wager it was here in November) one infected guy coughs in a PACKED NYC Subway infects many people almost instantly. Who’ll proceed to ride subways the upcoming days, cough, infect, and so forth. There’s millions infected and traveling domestically before we even know about Kirkland nursing home


I tend to believe that this shit isn’t just 20 fold anymore, I bet it’s 90 fold which puts us at 20%of population infected(probably more)

Texas/Florida/California combined have a fifth of NY/NJ cases despite absolutely shadowing them in population numbers.

[Anastasis 23,393]

4 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Back in January most everyone was saying this was about the same as the typical Flu.  Even the WHO was downplaying 

Jan. 14

WHO officials gave conflicting signals about whether there is human-to-human transmission. At a press conference in Geneva, Maria Van Kerkhove of WHO's emerging diseases unit told a Reuters reporter: "From the information that we have it is possible that there is limited human-to-human transmission, potentially among families, but it is very clear right now that we have no sustained human-to-human transmission." However, that same day WHO  tweeted a different take, stating that "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China" and also told an NPR reporter that Van Kerkhove had been misunderstood and there was in fact no evidence of human-to-human transmission.

Jan. 23

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a statement that it was too early to declare the coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency of international concern. "Make no mistake. This is an emergency in China, but it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one."

 

 

Not gonna stop posters from suggesting completely ridiculous counterfactuals. 

[Anastasis 23,393]

13 hours ago, Eskimohorn said:

It would be premature. In January, President meets with airlines/cruises, sets out travel restrictions, beginning with China. Preps public for it. Next week, the issue becomes more clear. By week 3, TSA doing distanced screening and tracking. Week 4, it actually works well.

 

Public thinks its an international thing still. No panic.

 

February comes along, PPE and testing already ramped up. Private industries part of it. By mid-February, the disease transmission becomes more known. Governors are prepped daily.

 

End of February comes. No panic. We buy ourselves 1-2 more weeks before outbreaks due to comprehensive and gradual restrictions.

 

Spring Break and Mardi Gras and cruises and panic lines in airports are planned in advanced and restricted. Travel bailout part of it.

 

Not sure what April looks like but we sure as shit would be in a much better place than we are now.

 

With ramped up testing and hot zone coding means that jurisdictions could make educated decisions on how safe things are and let the public what measures they should take. For instance, in Buda you could get a haircut because if Betty has a cough she could get tested and keep her shop open. Not wait 8 days for a result. Just wear a mask.

For example. 

[gmr548 16,491]

9 hours ago, F250 said:

The oldest Millennials were 21 by 9/11 and in their late twenties by the time there was "The Surge". Yeah a fuck ton of Millennials served in a voluntary military during the duration of those two wars. You can look up the numbers, they were the bulk of troops, which isn't surprising considering that late teens and early twenty year olds usually are the ones that fight wars.

I do agree that generational criticism is dumb. While young people do predominantly fight wars they tend to be fought by young people from the working class, basically young poor people. The general cliches of Boomers, Xers and Millennials tend to reflect Middle to upper middle class stereotypes that the poors don't have the ability to experience. The stereotypes have more in common with a John Hughes teenager movie than reality.

 

I'm not disagreeing with you. Yes, the oldest millenials were eligible to enlist at 9/11. Most weren't. Obviously the number of eligible increased with time, but there was never a huge recruitment surge and there was no real higher calling to enlist for much of the generation - it was appealing if it had always inherently been something you wanted to do, or as a way to get a job and a signing bonus and "get out." The numbers bear that out with a bump during the 2008 recession. Same as it ever was.

And still, much of the frontline combat in Afghanistan or Iraq was fought by millennials, because that's who gets dropped on the front lines: 18-22 year old kids who just signed up. Same as it ever was.

US military had been cut by a third by the time any millennial came of age. Any "WhAt PeRcEnTaGe Of ThEm HaVe SeRveD????" nonsense from internet tough guys is already dumb, and especially dumb when you consider that.

 

[bullzak 411]

5 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

C’mon.... in January(id wager it was here in November) one infected guy coughs in a PACKED NYC Subway infects many people almost instantly. Who’ll proceed to ride subways the upcoming days, cough, infect, and so forth. There’s millions infected and traveling domestically before we even know about Kirkland nursing home


I tend to believe that this shit isn’t just 20 fold anymore, I bet it’s 90 fold which puts us at 20%of population infected(probably more)

Texas/Florida/California combined have a fifth of NY/NJ cases despite absolutely shadowing them in population numbers.

I rode the El daily in Chicago until Mid March. Think about being within 3 feet of at least 100 different people a day every day. Same for everyone else. Even more in New York. How about airplanes?

Either way more people have this than anyone imagines, or its not nearly as contagious as we thought. Gotta be one of those two. 

Used to think the exposure was 10x what we knew. Might be 50x. 

Antibody testing is the first door out of here. Treatment is door number 2. 

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

14 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Back in January most everyone was saying this was about the same as the typical Flu.  Even the WHO was downplaying 

Jan. 14

WHO officials gave conflicting signals about whether there is human-to-human transmission. At a press conference in Geneva, Maria Van Kerkhove of WHO's emerging diseases unit told a Reuters reporter: "From the information that we have it is possible that there is limited human-to-human transmission, potentially among families, but it is very clear right now that we have no sustained human-to-human transmission." However, that same day WHO  tweeted a different take, stating that "Preliminary investigations conducted by the Chinese authorities have found no clear evidence of human-to-human transmission of the novel #coronavirus (2019-nCoV) identified in #Wuhan, #China" and also told an NPR reporter that Van Kerkhove had been misunderstood and there was in fact no evidence of human-to-human transmission.

Jan. 23

WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said in a statement that it was too early to declare the coronavirus outbreak a public health emergency of international concern. "Make no mistake. This is an emergency in China, but it has not yet become a global health emergency. It may yet become one."

 

 

Oh you're just making that up !!!!!!!!!!!

[EuroHorn 3,204]

9 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

C’mon.... in January(id wager it was here in November) one infected guy coughs in a PACKED NYC Subway infects many people almost instantly. Who’ll proceed to ride subways the upcoming days, cough, infect, and so forth. There’s millions infected and traveling domestically before we even know about Kirkland nursing home


I tend to believe that this shit isn’t just 20 fold anymore, I bet it’s 90 fold which puts us at 20%of population infected(probably more)

Texas/Florida/California combined have a fifth of NY/NJ cases despite absolutely shadowing them in population numbers.

Yep, we had non stop flights from Wuhan to California and New York up through January. If this shit was making the rounds in China before the New Year it certainly was here as well. 

[BurntOrange&White 39,618]

Fuck China.

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

2 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Yep, we had non stop flights from Wuhan to California and New York up through January. If this shit was making the rounds in China before the New Year it certainly was here as well. 

That's a convenient fact that should be ignored sir...Now you scamper off .....

[gmr548 16,491]

18 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

C’mon.... in January(id wager it was here in November) one infected guy coughs in a PACKED NYC Subway infects many people almost instantly. Who’ll proceed to ride subways the upcoming days, cough, infect, and so forth. There’s millions infected and traveling domestically before we even know about Kirkland nursing home


I tend to believe that this shit isn’t just 20 fold anymore, I bet it’s 90 fold which puts us at 20%of population infected(probably more)

Texas/Florida/California combined have a fifth of NY/NJ cases despite absolutely shadowing them in population numbers.

 

9 minutes ago, bullzak said:

I rode the El daily in Chicago until Mid March. Think about being within 3 feet of at least 100 different people a day every day. Same for everyone else. Even more in New York. How about airplanes?

Either way more people have this than anyone imagines, or its not nearly as contagious as we thought. Gotta be one of those two. 

Used to think the exposure was 10x what we knew. Might be 50x. 

Antibody testing is the first door out of here. Treatment is door number 2. 

Two separate research efforts have concluded it's most likely the virus showed up in NYC in February and was largely imported from Europe.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/491949-new-york-coronavirus-outbreak-came-from-europe-studies-show

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html

So this thing had not been floating around unchecked in NYC for months by the time things started to get bad. It's obviously very contagious with the ability to really strain healthcare capacity quickly.

Do agree - I think everyone does - that it is far more widespread that testing numbers indicate. That's why testing, both for infections and for antibodies, is so critical to getting public life going again. We really don't know what we're dealing with right now and we really should have more information before we make a move like that.

Edited April 18, 2020 by gmr548

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

4 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Yep, we had non stop flights from Wuhan to California and New York up through January. If this shit was making the rounds in China before the New Year it certainly was here as well. 

By New Years there were a lot of extra Secret Santa gifts being delivered in NYC...unbeknownst to the recipients of course. Mid to late January was way too late by probably 2 months to head this off in NYC.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

Two separate research efforts have concluded it's most likely the virus showed up in NYC in February and was largely imported from Europe.
https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/491949-new-york-coronavirus-outbreak-came-from-europe-studies-show
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html
So this thing had not been floating around unchecked in NYC for months by the time things started to get bad. 

Do you actually believe it?

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

 

Two separate research efforts have concluded it's most likely the virus showed up in NYC in February and was largely imported from Europe.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/491949-new-york-coronavirus-outbreak-came-from-europe-studies-show

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html

So this thing had not been floating around unchecked in NYC for months by the time things started to get bad. 

I'm not saying that's wrong, but weren't cases were showing up in mid January in NYC ?   A 2 week incubation period has been passed around with a lot of regularity I believe.

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

40 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

lol. Can’t believe someone probably in their 40s is even capable of a post like this when it’s 8am On a Saturday.

Well, it's happy hour somewhere all the time isn't it ?

[Aqua Buddha 14,501]

38 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Are there actually any scientists or epidemiologists out there that are saying its safe to reopen the country at this point? Or even close to safe?

Dr Phil says it is so I'm good, right?

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

There was never a need to shelter in place in January. The virus wasn't widespread. What we needed to be doing was preparing. 

What was NYC doing in the way of preparing then ?

[Scary Stranger 1,712]

1 hour ago, FartingMonk said:

No you fuck face.  The exact opposite you stupid dipshit.  I'm simply asking if we were ordered to shelter in place in January would we as Americans would have told the President to pack sand.  Is that more clear now you cunt bag

[Shaggybevo 353]

15 hours ago, Lurch said:

 

Jacksonville Beach, FL. I’m surrounded by morons.

The rules seem restrictive:

"Jacksonville's beaches will be open daily from 6AM to 11AM and 5PM to 8PM for exercise such as walking and swimming only.  Banned are sunbathing, chairs, towels, or loitering on the shore, and beach goers are required to remain six feet apart."

[Trey3216 15,325]

4 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

What was NYC doing in the way of preparing then ?

Their mayor was telling them they should be out supporting the Lunar New Year celebration as a showing of support to the Asian community.  

[gmr548 16,491]

2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Do you actually believe it?

As opposed to conjecture on Surly? Sure. 

1 minute ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I'm not saying that's wrong, but weren't cases were showing up in mid January in NYC ?   A 2 week incubation period has been passed around with a lot of regularity I believe.

The US didn't even confirm its first case until like January 20 or something. We can speculate the extent to which that missed the problem, but that's just that - uninformed speculation. It isn't crazy to think that it didn't really get seeded in NYC until early Feburary. I'm sure the number wasn't zero until then, but you've got two separate teams from different institutions coming to the same conclusion, I'm inclined to go with that over the speculation.

A two-week incubation period is on the extreme end of the range. Something like 95 percent of (symptomatic) cases show symptoms by 10 days in, the median is 4-5.

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

20 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

Two separate research efforts have concluded it's most likely the virus showed up in NYC in February and was largely imported from Europe.

https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/491949-new-york-coronavirus-outbreak-came-from-europe-studies-show

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/08/science/new-york-coronavirus-cases-europe-genomes.html

So this thing had not been floating around unchecked in NYC for months by the time things started to get bad. It's obviously very contagious with the ability to really strain healthcare capacity quickly.

Do agree - I think everyone does - that it is far more widespread that testing numbers indicate. That's why testing, both for infections and for antibodies, is so critical to getting public life going again. We really don't know what we're dealing with right now and we really should have more information before we make a move like that.

Those papers ..... they weren't uhhh.... sponsored by the WHO or the PRC by chance were they ?

 

EDIT:  This just in..... Dahobbs has no sense of humor or a sarcasm meter...  and that's the way it was Saturday April 18, 2020

Edited April 18, 2020 by Onboard 2.0

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Their mayor was telling them they should be out supporting the Lunar New Year celebration as a showing of support to the Asian community.  

That was hug a China-man week wasn't it ??

[Hate 20,103]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

As opposed to conjecture on Surly? Sure. 

The US didn't even confirm its first case until like January 20 or something. We can speculate the extent to which that missed the problem, but that's just that - uninformed speculation. It isn't crazy to think that it didn't really get seeded in NYC until early Feburary. I'm sure the number wasn't zero until then, but you've got two separate teams from different institutions coming to the same conclusion, I'm inclined to go with that over the speculation.

A two-week incubation period is on the extreme end of the range. Something like 95 percent of (symptomatic) cases show symptoms by 10 days in, the median is 4-5.

Allegedly, patient "zero" landed back in the US in Seattle on January 15 and tested positive on January 20. 

[Dahobbs 17,437]

3 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

What was NYC doing in the way of preparing then ?

What we needed to be doing and what we were doing are different things. But information was readily available by the end of January that some national effort was needed to prepare for the virus (e.g., large scale testing).

[DDD Dad 14,250]

11 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I'm not saying that's wrong, but weren't cases were showing up in mid January in NYC ?  

Link?

[Trey3216 15,325]

2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

That was hug a China-man week wasn't it ??

More or less

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

As opposed to conjecture on Surly? Sure. 

The US didn't even confirm its first case until like January 20 or something. We can speculate the extent to which that missed the problem, but that's just that - uninformed speculation. It isn't crazy to think that it didn't really get seeded in NYC until early Feburary. I'm sure the number wasn't zero until then, but you've got two separate teams from different institutions coming to the same conclusion, I'm inclined to go with that over the speculation.

A two-week incubation period is on the extreme end of the range. Something like 95 percent of (symptomatic) cases show symptoms by 10 days in, the median is 4-5.

Yeah, nothing would surprise me at this point, but I'm still a bit skeptical.  

And that has not stemmed the tide of yahoos all over the interwebz saying we should have known about this in January, and shut down our borders,  built a billion ventilators, implemented massive testing in Nov.  (they want to back date some of our precautions it seems).

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,010]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The US didn't even confirm its first case until like January 20 or something.

I’m no expert, but maybe there was no test available prior to that?

Not NY, but relevant to the discussion.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-11/bay-area-coronavirus-deaths-signs-of-earlier-spread-california%3f_amp=true

[EuroHorn 3,204]

3 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Link?

You certainly aren’t the missing one.  

[DDD Dad 14,250]

Just now, EuroHorn said:

You certainly aren’t the missing one.  

Agreed. My knuckles are at least an inch off the ground. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

I mean thehill article doesn’t say how many New Yorkers they tested.

How many people from Wuhan flew to NY/America before patient zero was tested? I’ll die on that hill.

[GreenspointTexas 9,559]

https://www.barstoolsports.com/blog/2316296/like-a-great-beacon-of-hope-in-americas-darkest-timesheather-brooke-is-back
 

goooood bless ameriiiiicaaaaa, land that i loooooooove.... 

[David Dennison 18,652]

3 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Yeah, nothing would surprise me at this point, but I'm still a bit skeptical.  

And that has not stemmed the tide of yahoos all over the interwebz saying we should have known about this in January, and shut down our borders,  built a billion ventilators, implemented massive testing in Nov.  (they want to back date some of our precautions it seems).

CDC learned about the virus on December 31 and issued a public alert on January 8.

[po elvis 2,070]

4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

CDC learned about the virus on December 31 and issued a public alert on January 8.

and yet on April 18 there are still millions of people that won't social distance and think we should be business as usual.