Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

9 hours ago, justhookit said:

I was referring to all of Texas except for the friend of Doc Reeves that lives in San Antonio but got on a plane to get tested in Colorado.  He apparently is wealthy and has a doctor son but still can’t get tested anywhere in this state. He’s an idoit.

in the grand scheme I understand the need for a lot more testing. It’s a bandaid but it’s all we have right now besides social distancing. On an individual level my question is why is this even an issue? If I get sick I’m staying home, calling the doctor, and only leaving the house if I need to go to the hospital. Once there I could give 2 fucks if they test me as long as they treat me. Am I missing something?

We are all talking about opening shit back up.  And testing is a huge deal if that’s what we want - and it clearly is.  

[dcar00 14023]

here is a story on the reagents.

https://www.rferl.org/a/coronavirus-reagent-delaying-expanded-coronavirus-testing-/30563198.html

 

[Iceman 2628]

3 minutes ago, dcbc said:

Had one of my kid's friend's mom (who my wife knows well) try to get a test.  She had serious symptoms for over a week and was in some respiratory distress.  She called the E.R. (either UT or Christus system) to let them know she was coming.  She tested negative for flu.  They would not test her.  They got her stabilized, but would not admit her to the hospital.  Sent her home.  Took her another week to finally get to where she was feeling a bit better (I heard her over the phone and she sounded like hell).  This was two weeks ago.  We are not a huge metro area, but we are a city of over 100,000 with several hospitals including UT system. 

Another story, my 5th grader's school principal tested positive.  He went to one of those pop up ER's (the ones that insurance pretty much never covers).  Got the test. 

Anecdotal?  Perhaps.  Lie? Absolutely fucking not. 

I know of 3 people who have had symptoms and got tested. 2 neg and 1 pos.

Have not heard of folks in our area being refused testing.  City pop of 200k.

[rpspeed 1351]

Quote

Nearly one third of 200 Chelsea residents who gave a drop of blood to researchers on the street this week tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19.

Sixty-four residents who had a finger pricked in Bellingham Square on Tuesday and Wednesday had antibodies that the immune system makes to fight off the coronavirus, according to Massachusetts General Hospital physicians who ran the pilot study.

The 200 participants generally appeared healthy

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/?outputType=amp&fbclid=IwAR1cApT7tj8JUAJnntEsHZXyFPCSjYxInrncG8nymx4BMUBdN58mSHOW3-0

[atomheartbevo 89362]

46 minutes ago, B00M said:

State by state and national projections from UT

https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/

Texas - that's hopeful that we can peak in the next two weeks:

Probability that the peak has already passed: 8%

Probability that peak will have passed within 7 days: 36%

Probability that peak will have passed within 14 days: 66%

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

34 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

 

This is correct. 

 

 

This is histrionic nonsense. The best anyone can offer for the unavailability of a test is a third hand anecdote.  

The “you still can’t get tested!!” narrative is a Siamese twin of “the testing, my God, the testing!” premise.  It was inevitable as a whine once the national response to the pandemic proved that the rurals and suburbans aren’t the deplorable fucktards that the briskets and the jimmys told their audience that they would be. 

I know at least a dozen ER docs that can’t test everyone they would.  It’s not a third hand anecdote.  MY group has 100,000 patients we can’t test.  Almost all nursing home residents have had exposure and are high risk patients.  We have 30 doctors in Texas and they cover hospitals and SNF’s.  You know how hard we’d get laughed at ordering tests for everyone that needs one?  So fuck your third hand bullshit. 
 

The litmus test isn’t ‘well just lie and say this so you can get one’.  It’s physicians being able to order all the tests they need.  

Do you think the vast majority of the medical community is making shit up?  You’ve been an insufferable prick from the start.  What is your problem?  Are you working in a hot zone and just getting burned out?  Genuinely curious.  

Edited April 19, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[GRHorn 105]

 

[dcar00 14023]

Interesting I know 3 doctors in Austin, one in La, and 2 in Alabama and they told me they can get tests done for people who have symptoms no problem.

now I'm sure they don't have 100K that have symptoms.  maybe that is a Chicago situation.

[Enchubben 5509]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

Interesting I know 3 doctors in Austin, one in La, and 2 in Alabama and they told me they can get tests done for people who have symptoms no problem.

now I'm sure they don't have 100K that have symptoms.  maybe that is a Chicago situation.

Yea that’s my experience and thought as well. My dad is a retired ER doctor in Texas and keeps in contact with physicians at several Houston and surrounding area hospitals and he mentioned that based on the doctors he has talked to that there is zero issues with access to testing here.

[Your Mom 4789]

It's almost like some areas have problems with testing while others don't.  How bizarre that every community across America doesn't have identical situations.   

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Interesting I know 3 doctors in Austin, one in La, and 2 in Alabama and they told me they can get tests done for people who have symptoms no problem.

now I'm sure they don't have 100K that have symptoms.  maybe that is a Chicago situation.

They don’t work in long term care facilities.  Where CNA’s and any other worker can get it and spread it all over.  

Im talking about our doctors in Texas too.  We have a large presence there.  It’s 60,000 encounters in an average month to put it in perspective.  

All ER’s are not in the clear either - Uncle is an ER doc at Grace in Lubbock.  Definitely not testing as much as he would - that was as of last week.  We talk again today and I’ll get another update.  

[dcar00 14023]

2 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

It's almost like some areas have problems with testing while others don't.  How bizarre that every community across America doesn't have identical situations.   

agreed.  maybe Illinois shouldn't open up.

[Treefidy 1463]

8 hours ago, Bevo said:

Why would someone jump on a plane if they think they are contagious? If it isn't illegal, it is highly unethical. The screeners at the airport are asking if you are sick so it takes both active lying and a total disregard for the health of others.

Flying commercial is for the poors 

 

[Foosters 17691]

I think there's also two different conversations being confused as one.

1) ability of hospitals and regions to keep up with testing based on current levels of persons seeking testing and recommendations on who should be getting tested.

2) testing needed to guide decisions on when, where, and how to reopen things.

 

[closetojumping 62131]

7 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I know at least a dozen ER docs that can’t test everyone they would.  It’s not a third hand anecdote.  MY groups has 100,000 patients we can’t test.  Almost all nursing home residents have had exposure and are high risk patients.  We have 30 doctors in Texas and they cover hospitals and SNF’s.  You know how hard we’d get laughed at ordering tests for everyone that needs one?  So fuck your third hand bullshit. 
 

The litmus test isn’t ‘well just lie and say this so you can get one’.  It’s physicians being able to order all the gets they need.  

Do you think the vast majority of the medical community is making shit up?  You’ve been an insufferable prick from the start.  What is your problem?  Are you working in a hot zone and just getting burned out?  Genuinely curious.  

This is just more cyberbawling. There isn’t a person in Texas that can’t get a test today, on a Sunday, if they need one. “We have 100,000 people we cannot test! I’m a doctor!” That would be a media feeding frenzy. Call up anyone and you can get your plight covered. This story would be published immediately.

I’m not burnt out about anything. I just dismiss the premise that someone that needs testing can’t get it. It’s drummed up silliness that’s a month too late. 

 

[Bevo 13493]

1 minute ago, Treefidy said:

Flying commercial is for the poors 

 

From what I understand, this use to be true. However, now you can fly in an A330 by yourself for the price of a tank of gas. Even Warren Buffet likes a good deal.

[dcar00 14023]

2 minutes ago, Treefidy said:

Flying commercial is for the poors 

 

I wonder if it was an anitbody test the guy wanted.

[G650 13989]

4 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

No we don't dammit. 

[dcar00 14023]

3 minutes ago, Foosters said:

I think there's also two different conversations being confused as one.

1) ability of hospitals and regions to keep up with testing based on current levels of persons seeking testing and recommendations on who should be getting tested.

2) testing needed to guide decisions on when, where, and how to reopen things.

 

ya think?  well done.  pos rep for you.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Nearly one third of 200 Chelsea residents who gave a drop of blood to researchers on the street this week tested positive for antibodies linked to COVID-19.
Sixty-four residents who had a finger pricked in Bellingham Square on Tuesday and Wednesday had antibodies that the immune system makes to fight off the coronavirus, according to Massachusetts General Hospital physicians who ran the pilot study.
The 200 participants generally appeared healthy

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/?outputType=amp&fbclid=IwAR1cApT7tj8JUAJnntEsHZXyFPCSjYxInrncG8nymx4BMUBdN58mSHOW3-0

I’ll just say it...it’s closer to 100,000,000 infected in the US than it is 762,000

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

3 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

This is just more cyberbawling. There isn’t a person in Texas that can’t get a test today, on a Sunday, if they need one. “We have 100,000 people we cannot test! I’m a doctor!” That would be a media feeding frenzy. Call up anyone and you can get your plight covered. This story would be published immediately.

I’m not burnt out about anything. I just dismiss the premise that someone that needs testing can’t get it. It’s drummed up silliness that’s a month too late. 

 

Lol, it's all over the news  you stupid fucking POS.  Nursing homes are NOT getting tested.  You had fatass JB Pritzker say they have task forces hitting hot nursing homes here in IL to deliver PPE and supplement staff.  It's total BS...and yes you dumb motherfucker we do have one of the largest groups in the country that run postacute networks for hospitals.  Several people on here know me in real life including the Bobs and others I've worked with during the crisis.

So you went from 'third hand' to just flat out calling someone with first hand knowledge a liar?  I am out there working in this shit 6 days a week.  Good to know there's complete pieces of shit like you out there who think it's all fine and we're just whining.  Again, FUCK YOU. 

[dcar00 14023]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/?outputType=amp&fbclid=IwAR1cApT7tj8JUAJnntEsHZXyFPCSjYxInrncG8nymx4BMUBdN58mSHOW3-0

I’ll just say it...it’s closer to 100,000,000 infected in the US than it is 762,000

Agree that way more people have it than people are willing to admit.  IMO at the end of it, it will be 100M.  right now IMO its closer to 20M maybe 25M.  UK did go more of the herd early on so they probably have more infected. that said, Fauci said this virus is "very efficient".  that doesn't mean crazy deadly deadly. it has the ability to transmit faster and hits compromised hard.  efficiently attacks weak spots.

we did all this to remove the chance of the hospitals being overwhelmed which would exacerbate the death rate,  not because of death specifically.  the good side effect is that we seem to be limiting the death as well.

 

[GringoSalado 1651]

38 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

 

 

We are all talking about opening shit back up.  And testing is a huge deal if that’s what we want - and it clearly is.  

 

Since we're all talking anecdotes 3 emps in my shop were able to get tested in 915, 1 w/ symptoms and the other two because they were riding around in the truck with the first guy. They got the test right away at a local health center, this was about 2 weeks ago (all negative).

TBH I don't get the apparent gravity of the testing issue, particularly at this stage.  Obviously I'd like to test everyone that sneezes and quarantine the +s, but I think we know that asymptomatic spread is a big issue (by both those who will and those who will not remain asymptomatic). Also let's say we're testing errbody (meaning asymptomatic) and I get tested and am infected by someone else at the clinic, but I (correctly) test negative (let's go to the football game/concert/coronavirus protest!). But now I'm positive and will very soon be shedding the virus. So how often do we retest? One test doesn't really tell you much (I don't have it right this second... Oops now I've got it). Also, isn't the point of the testing what we do w/ the data? In SK they were able to track/notify/control in a way that isn't feasible and wouldn't be as effective here for geographic and murica reasons. 

 

So let's assume we could wave a wand and test X number tomorrow (w/ X being whatever number of whatever population/demographic the surl deems need testing). Then what? (obligatory 1. test 2... 3. profit)

 

 

 

 

 

edit: shit rpspeed beat me to it (MA antibody test story)

 

IMO antibody tests data is more important now

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by GringoSalado

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

Agree that way more people have it than people are willing to admit.  IMO at the end of it, it will be 100M.  right now IMO its closer to 20M maybe 25M.  UK did go more of the herd early on so they probably have more infected. that said, Fauci said this virus is "very efficient".  that doesn't mean crazy deadly deadly. it has the ability to transmit faster and hits compromised hard.  efficiently attacks weak spots.

we did all this to remove the chance of the hospitals being overwhelmed which would exacerbate the death rate,  not because of death specifically.  the good side effect is that we seem to be limiting the death as well.

 

Yes, nobody is screaming, oh fuck we will all die.  Well, nobody in the medical community. 

The problem is you have places where it's running rampant.  Like IL/AL/SNF long term care places...dozens of cases and you see the RN's and admins wearing N95 masks, ideally.  Then you have the CNA's and janitors going in and out of these rooms wearing a cloth mask, no face shield etc...that's why it spreads so fast within the community.  But not only that, these are mostly uneducated people taking it back to their homes/communities.  There's a massive difference amongst what demographic groups are hit hardest.  

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Agree that way more people have it than people are willing to admit.  IMO at the end of it, it will be 100M.  right now IMO its closer to 20M maybe 25M.  UK did go more of the herd early on so they probably have more infected. that said, Fauci said this virus is "very efficient".  that doesn't mean crazy deadly deadly. it has the ability to transmit faster and hits compromised hard.  efficiently attacks weak spots.
we did all this to remove the chance of the hospitals being overwhelmed which would exacerbate the death rate,  not because of death specifically.  the good side effect is that we seem to be limiting the death as well.
 

NY/NJ seem to be coming down in deaths too. Hopefully it’s not a lag in reporting

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

7 minutes ago, GringoSalado said:

 

Since we're all talking anecdotes 3 emps in my shop were able to get tested in 915, 1 w/ symptoms and the other two because they were riding around in the truck with the first guy. They got the test right away at a local health center, this was about 2 weeks ago (all negative).

TBH I don't get the apparent gravity of the testing issue, particularly at this stage.  Obviously I'd like to test everyone that sneezes and quarantine the +s, but I think we know that asymptomatic spread is a big issue (by both those who will and those who will not remain asymptomatic). Also let's say we're testing errbody (meaning asymptomatic) and I get tested and am infected by someone else at the clinic, but I (correctly) test negative (let's go to the football game/concert/coronavirus protest!). But now I'm positive and will very soon be shedding the virus. So how often do we retest? One test doesn't really tell you much (I don't have it right this second... Oops now I've got it). Also, isn't the point of the testing what we do w/ the data? In SK they were able to track/notify/control in a way that isn't feasible and wouldn't be as effective here for geographic and murica reasons. 

 

So let's assume we could wave a wand and test X number tomorrow (w/ X being whatever number of whatever population/demographic the surl deems need testing). Then what? (obligatory 1. test 2... 3. profit)

 

 

 

 

 

edit: shit rpspeed beat me to it (MA antibody test story)

 

IMO antibody tests data is more important now

 

I'll answer in more detail in a bit.  The antibody testing is very inaccurate right now.  That's why many feel people are getting 'reinfected'...they never really had antibodies in the first place. 

And testing is the first step - totally agree you need to trace after that.  1. Test 2. Trace 3. Open shit back up before we kill ourselves

[Dbeasy 14953]

This is just more cyberbawling. There isn’t a person in Texas that can’t get a test today, on a Sunday, if they need one. “We have 100,000 people we cannot test! I’m a doctor!” That would be a media feeding frenzy. Call up anyone and you can get your plight covered. This story would be published immediately.
I’m not burnt out about anything. I just dismiss the premise that someone that needs testing can’t get it. It’s drummed up silliness that’s a month too late. 
 

You just look stupid now. There have been several posts of news stories, interviews, and even directly from a Dr in the middle of it that indicate there is a problem. Yet you’ve now conveniently back-tracked to “just Texas”, all while posting no data at all. Well we all notice you’re walking it back dumbass. Everyone on this thread now knows exactly how full of shit you are. You’re the fat ass bully in school whose got nothing but diarrhea mouth and nothing to back it up.

[Brisketexan 104462]

I think there's also two different conversations being confused as one. 1) ability of hospitals and regions to keep up with testing based on current levels of persons seeking testing and recommendations on who should be getting tested.

2) testing needed to guide decisions on when, where, and how to reopen things.

 

 

This is just more cyberbawling. There isn’t a person in Texas that can’t get a test today, on a Sunday, if they need one. “We have 100,000 people we cannot test! I’m a doctor!” That would be a media feeding frenzy. Call up anyone and you can get your plight covered. This story would be published immediately. I’m not burnt out about anything. I just dismiss the premise that someone that needs testing can’t get it. It’s drummed up silliness that’s a month too late. 

 

 

That these posts were sequential is perfect.

Foosters’ point 2) is really, really important....and completely ignored by CTJ (but not by people actually in the thick of it, like Chitown).

If we’re going to make educated decisions in a somewhat opened up society, we need widely available testing - literally every expert in the field has said so. We do not have that level of testing available yet - again, people actually out in the field have made that clear.

But it doesn’t fucking matter, because we’re going to do what we’re going to do, with shitty information, because that’s how we wanna do this.

[dcar00 14023]

we flattened the first wave, summer is coming, we are semi pushing herd now.  testing millions at once(insert Gary Oldman gif) isn't going to be ready for another month.  hot spots will need to stay locked down.

thats where we are.  if it flares back up hard in more than 2 or 3 places, CR will be very quiet after November.

[Surly Bevo 24692]

Serious testing question at this point.  From a course of care standpoint at what point, if any, does knowing the patient has Covid matter?  It seems to me that at this point case counting isn't as important as getting what testing capacity (antibody or otherwise) allocated in two ways.  Testing the sick when it is really at the point that knowing that they got the Covid matters to treatement and the population studies I keep seeing little smatterings of here and there to in a very statistically sound way fully assess overall spread, risk of certain actions etc.  Frankly knowing that John Smith has Covid if John Smith's treatment isn't really reliant on knowing he has Covid at the moment seems like a waste in the absence of enough tests....stay home John Smith and get well get well soon we want you to get well.

 

 

Edited April 19, 2020 by Surly Bevo

[Schulz2.0 28752]

19 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/17/business/nearly-third-200-blood-samples-taken-chelsea-show-exposure-coronavirus/?outputType=amp&fbclid=IwAR1cApT7tj8JUAJnntEsHZXyFPCSjYxInrncG8nymx4BMUBdN58mSHOW3-0

I’ll just say it...it’s closer to 100,000,000 infected in the US than it is 762,000

.762 x 3 = 100,000? I'm worried about the Minnesota public schools.

[dcar00 14023]

4 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

NY/NJ seem to be coming down in deaths too. Hopefully it’s not a lag in reporting

it will flare Tuesday for sure.

[dcar00 14023]

Just now, Schulz2.0 said:

.762 x 3 = 100,000? I'm worried about the Minnesota public schools.

one third of 330M

[Schulz2.0 28752]

Just now, dcar00 said:

one third of 330M

Sounds like a number that is as accurate as the early models predicting death totals.

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

28 minutes ago, Foosters said:

I think there's also two different conversations being confused as one.

1) ability of hospitals and regions to keep up with testing based on current levels of persons seeking testing and recommendations on who should be getting tested.

2) testing needed to guide decisions on when, where, and how to reopen things.

 

Very much this also.  Having 2 convos at once.  

[GringoSalado 1651]

37 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

 

Quote

Decide now if you are willing to go on a ventilator to buy time for your body to heal. You may need higher levels of oxygen than your home system can deliver. Hospitals can offer additional high-oxygen delivery through a mask as a ventilator alternative. If you do not want to be on a ventilator (my husband didn’t), write a directive to communicate this and have it witnessed.

thought that ^ was interesting (husband is Oncologist...)

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

17 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Agree that way more people have it than people are willing to admit.  IMO at the end of it, it will be 100M.  right now IMO its closer to 20M maybe 25M.  UK did go more of the herd early on so they probably have more infected. that said, Fauci said this virus is "very efficient".  that doesn't mean crazy deadly deadly. it has the ability to transmit faster and hits compromised hard.  efficiently attacks weak spots.

we did all this to remove the chance of the hospitals being overwhelmed which would exacerbate the death rate,  not because of death specifically.  the good side effect is that we seem to be limiting the death as well.

 

I repped this - and I want to note 'at the end of it' 100M isn't that crazy.  Right now, I don't think we are anywhere near 100M.  But we are way more than whatever is reported.  Even when Ig testing gets better it seems consensus now is not to add those to the positive totals...so let's be honest, we'll never have a good hard count but should have fairly accurate estimates through cluster testing and extrapolating.  I hate using extrapolation in any sense after what we saw early on when some people starting extrapolating off shitty base numbers...but after things calm, I think it can be of use. 

[closetojumping 62131]

11 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

 

You just look stupid now. There have been several posts of news stories, interviews, and even directly from a Dr in the middle of it that indicate there is a problem. Yet you’ve now conveniently back-tracked to “just Texas”, all while posting no data at all. Well we all notice you’re walking it back dumbass. Everyone on this thread now knows exactly how full of shit you are. You’re the fat ass bully in school whose got nothing but diarrhea mouth and nothing to back it up.

 

Yes, I’m a bully. How, is unclear, but apparently capable of it in some way. 

Meanwhile, if you need a test, anywhere in this country, you can go get one. I guess there’s some mass infected nursing home somewhere that serves at ChiTown’s beachhead for claiming that we’re all fucked on the testing front, much to brisket’s orgasmic pleasure, but there isn’t a person on this thread that couldn’t get tested today if they needed it. 

[dcar00 14023]

1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Very much this also.  Having 2 convos at once.  

This is why certain places can't open now. It is what it is.  Does the Maryland governor have data? I certainly may have missed it but he just says we can't test, don't have reagents, etc.  how many tests for people with symptoms did you need to do that you couldn't do?  I do think a reagent shortage is possible, but if you are going to complain bring some specifics. 

you can't wish this stuff into existence and I have no doubt China reeled in as much as they could.

the UK article said that the reagent was the issue with the CDC fucking up the test.

we are making a bet and letting places that seem to be less effected open.  sometimes you have to if the sure thing will cripple everything.

[dcbc 14388]

56 minutes ago, Iceman said:

I know of 3 people who have had symptoms and got tested. 2 neg and 1 pos.

Have not heard of folks in our area being refused testing.  City pop of 200k.

I was really surprised to hear it.  She had been really sick.  She's a single mom.  I suppose she could have gotten tested by driving all over the place like she was looking for toilet paper.  But I was not sure how she got someone to drive her to the ER in the first place (only other person in the house is her 14 year old daughter).

This is in Tyler TX.  So not a huge population, but a city with a lot of hospitals per capita (60%+ of the economy here is medical).  UT System hospital.  Christus system hospital.  Baylor Scott & White.  MD Anderson branch. 

So, yeah, I found it surprising.  I'm just glad she seems to have been on the mend. 

That said, there are is drive through testing in Longview and Marshall, but not in Tyler. 

[Dahobbs 17420]

20 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

 

You just look stupid now. There have been several posts of news stories, interviews, and even directly from a Dr in the middle of it that indicate there is a problem. Yet you’ve now conveniently back-tracked to “just Texas”, all while posting no data at all. Well we all notice you’re walking it back dumbass. Everyone on this thread now knows exactly how full of shit you are. You’re the fat ass bully in school whose got nothing but diarrhea mouth and nothing to back it up.

 

It isn't just now. He always looks like that.

Edited April 19, 2020 by Dahobbs

[bullzak 411]

20 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

And testing is the first step - totally agree you need to trace after that.  1. Test 2. Trace 3. Open shit back up before we kill ourselves

Doc, when we are talking about testing at this point do you mean antibody? Because at this point my understanding is that our ability to really test that is almost nonexistent right now. 

I dont see meaning of testing for the disease itself at this point unless you have symptoms and are a candidate for treatment. 

Personally I think we are shut down until we get past Memorial Weekend in Chicago. Want to at least shut down large scale get togethers until June. At that point you aren't really going to have a lot of control. Getting stir crazy already. 

[dcar00 14023]

8 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I repped this - and I want to note 'at the end of it' 100M isn't that crazy.  Right now, I don't think we are anywhere near 100M.  But we are way more than whatever is reported.  Even when Ig testing gets better it seems consensus now is not to add those to the positive totals...so let's be honest, we'll never have a good hard count but should have fairly accurate estimates through cluster testing and extrapolating.  I hate using extrapolation in any sense after what we saw early on when some people starting extrapolating off shitty base numbers...but after things calm, I think it can be of use. 

agree but the CDC never has accurate counts of anything and extrapolates like crazy.  this is why including the maybes is stupid.  the CDC eventually gives some huge range so they can't possibly be wrong, and takes the middle.  I appreciate that the CDC seems to be separating the maybes for now.

there were 115K state confirmed cases and 27K state confirmed hospitalizations and 3.4K deaths for H1N1.  Using WIDE FUCKING RANGES and multipliers, the CDC came up with 60M cases and 300K hospitalizations and 12.7K deaths.

600x cases, 10x hospitalizations, 4x deaths.  and the high end of those ranges was about 1.5x that.

I'm assuming there is some science behind this but it really needs to be reviewed because we do and will make major decisions based on these numbers. yes I know we are in the thick of it now and what we really need is anitbody testing.  that was always going to take months to get to and we don't have that time.

 

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

4 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Doc, when we are talking about testing at this point do you mean antibody? Because at this point my understanding is that our ability to really test that is almost nonexistent right now. 

I dont see meaning of testing for the disease itself at this point unless you have symptoms and are a candidate for treatment. 

Personally I think we are shut down until we get past Memorial Weekend in Chicago. Want to at least shut down large scale get togethers until June. At that point you aren't really going to have a lot of control. Getting stir crazy already. 

I'm losing my mind.  Just working with no fun is shitty to say the least.  At least I can work outside the home...can't imagine being stuck inside. 

And I mean both testing...antibody testing more important imo to letting people out.  It's very shitty right now.  You have sleezy private labs offering a lot of testing and results are dubious.  Some have a ton of positives because any type of coronavirus antibody is triggering tests.  Others really don't have proper sensitivity so even patients we confirmed multiple times with swabs are coming up negative for antibodies.  

We need more PCR testing for active C19 infections too for the hot zones... I mentioned above for places like long term buildings where so many staff come and go.  They take this back to their communities because there's no idea how many active infections are where they work. 

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

agree but the CDC never has accurate counts of anything and extrapolates like crazy.  this is why including the maybes is stupid.  the CDC eventually gives some huge range so they can't possibly be wrong, and takes the middle.  I appreciate that the CDC seems to be separating the maybes for now.

there were 115K state confirmed cases and 27K state confirmed hospitalizations and 3.4K deaths for H1N1.  Using WIDE FUCKING RANGES and multipliers, the CDC came up with 60M cases and 300K hospitalizations and 12.7K deaths.

600x cases, 10x hospitalizations, 4x deaths.  and the high end of those ranges was about 1.5x that.

I'm assuming there is some science behind this but it really needs to be reviewed because we do and will make major decisions based on these numbers. yes I know we are in the thick of it now and what we really need is anitbody testing.  that was always going to take months to get to and we don't have that time.

 

Yep - can look at my posts from very beginning, I never got into the guessing games on positives or deaths.  I just didn't see good data to even make an educated guess off of. 

[Modessit 5595]

Nah dude, they're just winging it and assigning COVID to anyone who dies with anything short of a gunshot wound to the head.

Anecdotal:

My grandfather's youngest sister died last week in Wisconsin at age 96. She'd been in poor health for a few years and it was expected. One of her daughters told me that it was NOT Covid related but that the state was listing it as part of the death toll because it meant more federal funding for the state. Dunno how accurate that is.

[dcar00 14023]

Just now, Modessit said:

Anecdotal:

My grandfather's youngest sister died last week in Wisconsin at age 96. She'd been in poor health for a few years and it was expected. One of her daughters told me that it was NOT Covid related but that the state was listing it as part of the death toll because it meant more federal funding for the state. Dunno how accurate that is.

I have no doubt this is happening.  the level to which is unknown.

[C-Man 26991]

Anecdotal:

My grandfather's youngest sister died last week in Wisconsin at age 96. She'd been in poor health for a few years and it was expected. One of her daughters told me that it was NOT Covid related but that the state was listing it as part of the death toll because it meant more federal funding for the state. Dunno how accurate that is.

Seems to be a thing going around. My wife’s dingbat aunt in Oklahoma shared something on Facebook about Joe Diffie. It was a shared post by a “friend” of Diffie who said his family was upset COVID was the COD on death certificate. Went on to say it isn’t what caused his death and the medical people were doing to increase the death numbers to up federal funding. Sounds like they’re worded basically the same.

[stork642 4498]

5 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I have no doubt this is happening.  the level to which is unknown.

The maybes are a good place to start.  

[Bevo 13493]

24 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Doc, when we are talking about testing at this point do you mean antibody? Because at this point my understanding is that our ability to really test that is almost nonexistent right now. 

I dont see meaning of testing for the disease itself at this point unless you have symptoms and are a candidate for treatment. 

Personally I think we are shut down until we get past Memorial Weekend in Chicago. Want to at least shut down large scale get togethers until June. At that point you aren't really going to have a lot of control. Getting stir crazy already. 

rtPCR was never meant for mass testing. It takes too long, costs too much, and requires specific skill sets. Antibody-based tests are the only real option. But as Chitowndoc mentioned, they aren't very accurate right now. Eventually better tests will come out, but they aren't here now.

The infatuation with tests is a great political hot button, but I'm not sure that it is a great tool for doctors or public policy. Doctors need to know if someone has an active infection, this is done at point of care, not in the streets. If someone isn't hospital sick, then they don't need to be tested. If they are in the hospital, they need to be tested ASAP to determine the correct course of treatment.

For public policy, testing the general public would be great to determine where we are on the curve. However, the high false positive rate and poor predictive value of the test makes this impossible. If we could get everyone tested, there is a decent chance that we would have more wrong information than right information. And for negative individuals, that information is only correct for the current snapshot in time.

Now if the test was more accurate or there were specific subsets of the population that were found to be vulnerable, then testing would increase in importance. For example, if we could test daily everyone entering and leaving nursing homes. As it is though, I think the best course of action is for everyone to consider the general population as contagious and proceed accordingly.

Edited April 19, 2020 by Bevo