Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Royalfan5 2384]

On a meat note, beef prices are now within $5 of the recent spike high, #hogs with $13, with a big jump in bellies today. JBS has 20K a day plant down in Minnesota now for hogs, and it looks like we will be close to 70% capacity on runs to start the week. Short term there still shouldn't be major issues with meat supply, it's the back end where it will get wild especially on hogs because backed up cattle can be slowed down on gain, and hogs will probably have to be gassed or shot if they can't find processor space, and that will leave a hole this fall. 

[dcar00 14980]

13 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

But it does? The very thing it models is examples of less than 100% of the population following social distancing rules. It showed a quarter of population not following the rules and an 8th. Either result was significantly better than than the free-for-all scenario. If we reduce contacts in the population by 70%, it is going to have a good effect on the spread of the virus. We don't need perfect, just good. Why would you think otherwise? 

You've never read the Imperial College Report, have you? (1) It wasn't a simple exercise in arithmetic, but an individual-based simulation model (think a really complex Sim City); (2) the assumed IFR wasn't based on the 1918 pandemic, but on the available data from China on Sars-Cov-2; (3) as I pointed in my previous post, the Imperial College Report explicitly said that it didn't view the "do-nothing" scenario as a likely outcome (precisely because even in the absence of government mandate, people would change their behavior; and (4) the IHME model is more mathematical wizardry than the Imperial College Model, as it basically comes down to fitting new data into a pre-determined curve. Frankly, I don't think anyone should put much faith in the IHME model at all. It is an interesting, but unproven experiment. 

Here is the Imperial College Report: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

Here is a pretty detailed explanation of the underlying model (from prior work): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7095311/bin/41586_2006_BFnature04795_MOESM28_ESM.pdf

Overview:

• Take detailed data on the geographic distribution of population
• Seed model with population
• Model individual home, work, school, and travel patterns using census and other data;
• Create transmission model (stochastic, spatially structured individual-based simulation), basically chance of transmission is determined by the amount of time any individual is in close contact to an infected person contact; (SEIR model, susceptible, exposed, infected, and resistant);
• Seed with a # of infected individuals;
• Let the simulated people do their thing and see what happens. 

Here is the underlying study used to estimate the IFR: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033357v1

 

you and I are going to disagree.  I have read the report.  yes, there are links to their work.  IMO(and it is only that) they made the data fit the number.  The mention 1918 in the introduction a lot. I don't believe for a second it is a coincidence that the model came up with 2.2M but of course I can't prove it.

BTW, I am sure they knew how their model(2.2M could die)would be reported in the media.

[Cheeseweasel 26442]

Just now, Royalfan5 said:

On a meat note, beef prices are now within $5 of the recent spike high, #hogs with $13, with a big jump in bellies today. JBS has 20K a day plant down in Minnesota now for hogs, and it looks like we will be close to 70% capacity on runs to start the week. Short term there still shouldn't be major issues with meat supply, it's the back end where it will get wild especially on hogs because backed up cattle can be slowed down on gain, and hogs will probably have to be gassed or shot if they can't find processor space, and that will leave a hole this fall. 

[bullzak 428]

Chicago is about as shut down as you could imagine. CTA down 80%. Metra over 90%

Air travel down 93%. 

I call that substantial compliance. I think people have trouble making a distinction between shelter in place and an absolute quarantine you can never leave your house situation. 

What we are doing is about the best we could do, and its working in spectacular fashion IMO. 

 

[utee94 16091]

5 minutes ago, bullzak said:

What we are doing is about the best we could do, and its working in spectacular fashion IMO. 

 

Seems to be, although to iceman's point, we'll never know for sure.  I'm comfortable with that, but I can't blame others for feeling less so.

 

 

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by utee94

[C-Man 27793]

16 minutes ago, GringoSalado said:

Well if all you do is hang out at grocery stores then yeah, there is no shutdown.

The Central Market and Trader Joe's nearest me are only allowing a certain number in the store at one time so they're a lot less crowded than usual. No, this isn't perfect but I think enough people are playing the rules that we are certainly effecting the numbers in a positive way.

[ChiTownDoc 21346]

22 hours ago, C-Man said:

 

Seems to be a thing going around. My wife’s dingbat aunt in Oklahoma shared something on Facebook about Joe Diffie. It was a shared post by a “friend” of Diffie who said his family was upset COVID was the COD on death certificate. Went on to say it isn’t what caused his death and the medical people were doing to increase the death numbers to up federal funding. Sounds like they’re worded basically the same.

 

Lol.  The conspiracy dipshits are having a field day.  Some serious schadenfreude out there if you’re into that type of thing.  

[ChiTownDoc 21346]

54 minutes ago, Iceman said:

How can you say it’s working when it’s not being executed?  People aren’t going to work, but  they’re hardly staying home.  They’re hardly staying isolated, as well.

I’m concerned about precedent for things going forward.  Now everytime a bat...um... person gets a caugh, we’re gonna shut the country down?  The cost vs benefit is insanely high.

Why do you keep acting like your neck of the woods defines it as not working everywhere?  It’s 100% working in Chicago.  

[aggie08 21839]

6 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Chicago is about as shut down as you could imagine. CTA down 80%. Metra over 90%

Air travel down 93%. 

I call that substantial compliance. I think people have trouble making a distinction between shelter in place and an absolute quarantine you can never leave your house situation. 

What we are doing is about the best we could do, and its working in spectacular fashion IMO. 

 

Yeah, but still...

 

I saw two members of the same family grocery shopping together. TWO!!  Shelter in place my ass!  If that's still happening near me, just imagine what it's like everywhere else...

[ChiTownDoc 21346]

16 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Downtown Atlanta has been a ghost town. Midtown has a few more people on the streets but definitely much lower than normal. People on the sidewalks are pretty good at moving to the sides or into the streets to maintain distancing.  You can actually run down Peachtree Street during the week without worrying about car traffic.  Usually that’s only accomplished during the Peachtree road race. 

Almost every major city has had a huge reduction in activity with the shelter at home orders.  But Slorch.  

[Bozo_Casanova 26874]

2 hours ago, NorthLoop said:

Not that I agree with their approach, but anyone should probably wait a year before they claim that this experiment "failed". The whole point of the experiment is to get herd immunity quickly so as to avoid the 2nd and 3rd waves in the next year. By April 2021 it's very possible that those other countries could have more Covid deaths. 

FTR I think what Sweden is doing is a terrible strategy, but you are correct. 

[Js1 87214]

1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Why do you keep acting like your neck of the woods defines it as not working everywhere?  It’s 100% working in Chicago.  

This is the guy who didn’t know what an anecdote was 

[ChiTownDoc 21346]

10 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Chicago is about as shut down as you could imagine. CTA down 80%. Metra over 90%

Air travel down 93%. 

I call that substantial compliance. I think people have trouble making a distinction between shelter in place and an absolute quarantine you can never leave your house situation. 

What we are doing is about the best we could do, and its working in spectacular fashion IMO. 

 

Yeah but people shopping in buttfuck Lubbock!!!

[Nice Guy Eddie 13740]

I agree that social distancing hasn't been perfect, but I'm amazed at the number of people that appear to be following the guidelines.  And even as people have no choice but to go to the stores, I haven't seen people shopping groups.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

This is the guy who didn’t know what an anecdote was 

GOD DAMMIT !! WE DON'T HAVE AN ANTIDOTE YET !!!     Wait never mind...

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I agree that social distancing hasn't been perfect, but I'm amazed at the number of people that appear to be following the guidelines.  And even as people have no choice but to go to the stores, I haven't seen people shopping groups.

I still see people toting their small children out with them.

[Bevo 13900]

Just now, Onboard 2.0 said:

I still see people toting their small children out with them.

Yes, but you can't leave them at home alone either. There may not be many good options other than instacart and such.

[utee94 16091]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

Yes, but you can't leave them at home alone either. There may not be many good options other than instacart and such.

Just leave 'em in the car and crack a window... right?

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Just now, Bevo said:

Yes, but you can't leave them at home alone either. There may not be many good options other than instacart and such.

Yeah I said that to myself immediately,  but you can leave them in the car for a few minutes (no heat wave here). I'm not talking about toddlers. These were kids 9-10, 11 ??

[Nice Guy Eddie 13740]

2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I still see people toting their small children out with them.

Yeah but there are some limits to what to do with little kids because not everyone have other responsible adults in their household. I was thinking more how I used to see groups of 4-5 adults/young adults shopping together.  And I don't know if those groups are forbidden but more discouraged.

[pacman 7509]

13 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Lol.  The conspiracy dipshits are having a field day.  Some serious schadenfreude out there if you’re into that type of thing.  

It's all because of 5g

[Dahobbs 18337]

19 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

you and I are going to disagree.  I have read the report.  yes, there are links to their work.  IMO(and it is only that) they made the data fit the number.  The mention 1918 in the introduction a lot. I don't believe for a second it is a coincidence that the model came up with 2.2M but of course I can't prove it.

BTW, I am sure they knew how their model(2.2M could die)would be reported in the media.

Disagree about what? You're literally just making stuff up now. I have no problem if you want to criticize the model or even criticize how it was represented in the media. But at least don't misrepresent what they actually did. You're now suggesting that they didn't do anything of the things that they laid out in great detail in the report. What would the purpose of that even be?  What a dumb fucking conspiracy theory. 

[Cheeseweasel 26442]

8 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I still see people toting their small children out with them.

Every coal mine needs a canary.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Every coal mine needs a canary.

Surly never disappoints.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8985]

Just leave 'em in the car and crack a window... right?

 

Just not too much. Don’t need any birds or mice getting into the car

[Sgt Hulk 14467]

It's working in LA but thats because no one can afford the fine for being arrested.  I drove from Longbeach to my house on saturday a normally 30-40 min drive was 18 min.  freeways are a ghost town  took me 30 min to get inside a grocery store yesterday due to the line and a few in at a time.  Folks arent congregating in large groups for what i can see.  even in OC and south where the beaches are still open not many surfers in the water on glassy good days

[Eskimohorn 5682]

You’ve been out in town at virtually any grocery store or convenience store at all?  Maybe YOU’re the one following the rules.  Lolz.  Thank you!
 
Maybe it’s because that’s what I do all day, every day.   It’s hard to believe any of this could be considered a shut down with regard to human interaction.  And measuring it’s ‘success’ is almost impossible, as we have a minimal understanding about how many people actually have the virus.  It’s like having a victory celebration at the end of the first quarter.
I don’t trust the death count attributed to CV-19 either, but wth  does that matter in the grand scheme of things?

Link??

[Surly Bevo 25759]

Friend and I were talking about masks and other assorted facial cover and that they all well and good now, but what's it gonna be like wearing a mask in and out of places when it's 105 assfucking degrees outside.  

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

Guys, look on the bright side. Practice makes perfect. No, we have not executed the shutdown flawlessly, but we'll get it right when we try it again in November. And if not then, then I think doing it perfectly next spring is within reach. If not, the following late fall/early winter--  I mean, there's no shortage of opportunities upcoming.

[HoffaJimmy 316]

I have no clue the % of people that are actually staying home and only going out for the needed essentials but it's a shit ton. (is that a scientific term?)

 

[ABSR 5370]

24 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Just leave 'em in the car and crack a window... right?

 

and leave a little bowl of water.  

[Homesickhorn 2220]

1 hour ago, huge said:

People in Houston are behaving for the most part.  That's my anecdotal contribution for the day.

And did y'all hear that the Rodeo was cancelled? SIAP

[akhornfan 4]

15 minutes ago, Sgt Hulk said:

It's working in LA but thats because no one can afford the fine for being arrested.  I drove from Longbeach to my house on saturday a normally 30-40 min drive was 18 min.  freeways are a ghost town  took me 30 min to get inside a grocery store yesterday due to the line and a few in at a time.  Folks arent congregating in large groups for what i can see.  even in OC and south where the beaches are still open not many surfers in the water on glassy good days

Most of the OC beaches are closed as well. I heard Newport is still open, but the rest are shut down. Laguna closed their beaches earlier than LA county. In general, OC is following LA county rules/suggestions with a few day lag. 

[B00M 6735]

Was Gregory Rigano the "Stanford doctor" Tucker hosted that created a really lame pissing match a bunch of pages back that seemed like it would never end?

Quote

Stanford University School of Medicine and the University of Alabama, Birmingham, School of Medicine told HuffPost that no one from their institutions was directly involved in Rigano and Todaro’s paper. The National Academy of Sciences was also not aware of any connection between Rigano or Todaro and the organization, according to a spokesperson. One UAB researcher requested that his name be removed from the paper after he was initially listed as an author and denied he had any knowledge of it or any part in its creation, he told Wired magazine in a Thursday profile of Rigano and Todaro.

Both Stanford Medicine and its SPARK Program in Translational Research, a drug development partnership with industry, also explicitly told HuffPost that Rigano is making a false claim about his affiliation with the university and have contacted LinkedIn to demand the company remove the university from his profile.

“Mr Rigano is not an advisor to the SPARK program and Stanford was not involved in his paper. We previously asked him to remove any reference to Stanford in his publication,” Daria Mochly-Rosen, the founder and co-director of SPARK at Stanford, told HuffPost.

Rigano and Todaro did not respond to multiple requests for interviews and comment for this article.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/chloroquine-coronavirus-rigano-todaro-tucker-carlson_n_5e74da41c5b6eab77946c3b3

[JBJ 3828]

Last Friday's projection: 744,221 total cases, 26,521 daily cases, 29,485 total deaths

We came under total cases last week.   We came in over total deaths - mostly because NY decided to change the way they report deaths and retroactively reported a few thousand.  These account for about 20% of all deaths and the single-day jump is obvious on the charts above.

I had my doubt last Monday, but we were definitely in a slow decline last week.  I think are are bottoming out  the transmission rate as far as it will go.  (The last time I posted this we cut the transmission rate in half, again).

Friday's projection: 965,731 total cases, 25,731 daily cases, 48,935 total deaths by the new reporting method (40,590 total deaths is charted above).

[MNLonghornFUKM 8985]

Was Gregory Rigano the "Stanford doctor" Tucker hosted that created a really lame pissing match a bunch of pages back that seemed like it would never end?

Stanford University School of Medicine and the University of Alabama, Birmingham, School of Medicine told HuffPost that no one from their institutions was directly involved in Rigano and Todaro’s paper. The National Academy of Sciences was also not aware of any connection between Rigano or Todaro and the organization, according to a spokesperson. One UAB researcher requested that his name be removed from the paper after he was initially listed as an author and denied he had any knowledge of it or any part in its creation, he told Wired magazine in a Thursday profile of Rigano and Todaro.
Both Stanford Medicine and its SPARK Program in Translational Research, a drug development partnership with industry, also explicitly told HuffPost that Rigano is making a false claim about his affiliation with the university and have contacted LinkedIn to demand the company remove the university from his profile.
“Mr Rigano is not an advisor to the SPARK program and Stanford was not involved in his paper. We previously asked him to remove any reference to Stanford in his publication,” Daria Mochly-Rosen, the founder and co-director of SPARK at Stanford, told HuffPost.
Rigano and Todaro did not respond to multiple requests for interviews and comment for this article.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/chloroquine-coronavirus-rigano-todaro-tucker-carlson_n_5e74da41c5b6eab77946c3b3

No it was jay bhaddaverda something. Same name as super troopers guy

[Cheeseweasel 26442]

10 minutes ago, HoffaJimmy said:

I have no clue the % of people that are actually staying home and only going out for the needed essentials but it's a shit ton. (is that a scientific term?)

A butt load (aka 130 gallons). 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butt_(unit)

[MNLonghornFUKM 8985]

Last Friday's projection: 744,221 total cases, 26,521 daily cases, 29,485 total deaths
We came under total cases last week.   We came in over total deaths - mostly because NY decided to change the way they report deaths and retroactively reported a few thousand.  These account for about 20% of all deaths and the single-day jump is obvious on the charts above.
I had my doubt last Monday, but we were definitely in a slow decline last week.  I think are are bottoming out  the transmission rate as far as it will go.  (The last time I posted this we cut the transmission rate in half, again).
Friday's projection: 965,731 total cases, 25,731 daily cases, 48,935 total deaths by the new reporting method (40,590 total deaths is charted above).

Good positive stuff.

[EuroHorn 3295]

43 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Just leave 'em in the car and crack a window... right?

 

Heat kills the virus. 

[CHIEF 5228]

I am seeing a lot of what Slorch is seeing. Mom and I went to Lowe's to get some items, so she can put her house on the market, last Friday morning. It was the most crowded I have ever seen. Whole families going shopping to avoid boredom. About 30% were masked up. It was bad enough that we didn't even go in. Granbury has really bad traffic for its size (like Austin, it has a lake right through the middle) and the traffic is just as bad as always. 

Hood county is sitting at 17 cases and 3 deaths total. Over half of the cases were two different families that infected their own family members after traveling. There is a huge sense of false security in a lot of rural areas, that we are not seeing in the harder hit urban areas.

If you want to have hardly anyone in the store and adequate social distancing you better go shopping at 9:30 on Sunday morning. Everyone is home watching their streamed church service.

CHIEF

[Homercles 10206]

I had to go to HEB this morning in cedar park, I’d say 85% of people there had masks on.  Everyone was going out of their way to avoid other people.  I think adherence varies quite a bit depending on location, demographics and other factors.  

[TheMailBox357 213]

 

I know this will effect A&M, but will it effect UT?

[tx 3 putt 78717]

3 minutes ago, TheMailBox357 said:

 

I know this will effect A&M, but will it effect UT?

lot of money tied to o/g, it'll crush all schools 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8985]

 
I know this will effect A&M, but will it effect UT?

They should be ok. I think Mack Brown is off the books so now just paying Charlie Strong millions to not coach there.

[Deej 77854]

7 minutes ago, Homercles said:

I had to go to HEB this morning in cedar park, I’d say 85% of people there had masks on.  Everyone was going out of their way to avoid other people.  I think adherence varies quite a bit depending on location, demographics and other factors.  

I thought HEB was requiring masks to enter?

[atomheartbevo 90663]

56 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Yeah I said that to myself immediately,  but you can leave them in the car for a few minutes (no heat wave here). I'm not talking about toddlers. These were kids 9-10, 11 ??

Yeah, but at any given time, there are 9-10 Karens circling the parking lot.  Do you want chat with the cop?

[dcar00 14980]

20 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Disagree about what? You're literally just making stuff up now. I have no problem if you want to criticize the model or even criticize how it was represented in the media. But at least don't misrepresent what they actually did. You're now suggesting that they didn't do anything of the things that they laid out in great detail in the report. What would the purpose of that even be?  What a dumb fucking conspiracy theory. 

https://www.localmemphis.com/article/news/health/health-alert/verify-headlines-comparing-the-coronavirus-to-spanish-flu-are-missing-context/522-e49808da-ddca-486c-b05a-8966e61a760c

here's an article where they talk to ferguson about spanish flu and covid. he talks about spanish flu being  approx 2% for US and UK per scientific papers.

he says the estimate is that in 1918 25-33% of UK had spanish flu and 230K died.  meaning 9.5M to 12.5M had it.  1.8 to 2.4% death rate.

if you take 33% of UK pop today about 67M you get 22.3M. multiply that by 2% IFR you get 447K.  His model showed 510K for UK.

for consistencies sake, 100M in US in 1918, CDC considers 1/3rd of pop got it.  33M * 2% = 660K  estiamted was 675K

estimated US pop today 330M  33% is 110M *2% is 2.2M

Yes his model number for UK shows to be approx 12% higher but IMO, the magnitude of the numbers being similar aren't coincidences at all.

I am not saying he said 510K or 2.2M would die but he put a model out giving those kinds of numbers as a very worst case scenario when there was no way that was going to happen.

 

[bigup2dahorns 3348]

Oil just went NEGATIVE per barrel for the May contract. Thanks a lot Bin Laden.

[SydneyCarton 49512]

8 minutes ago, TheMailBox357 said:

 

I know this will effect A&M, but will it effect UT?

Well, definitely get kicked in the dick like a lot of schools. Not as hard as aTm, but it will sting. Robert Rawlings owns a hotel empire. That's not going to turn out great. We've more diversified millionaires and billionaires, but it's still a mother fuck ton of Oil. 

[UT_OB1 2266]

1 hour ago, huge said:

People in Houston are behaving for the most part.  That's my anecdotal contribution for the day.

I will confirm your anecdotal evidence for Houston and add that Galveston feels like a ghost town when driving/walking around and shopping. HD was making people wait in line outside (decently spread out) and only allowing a handful of people in as people left.  And their curb side pick up worked great. I didn’t leave the car, made no physical contact (no physical receipt or card transaction), and only spoke through the window. My items were loaded in the back of my car. 
 

Also, everyone gives me a wide berth when walking around. Like - walk 15’ off the sidewalk in to the grass distancing.  But that could be due to the fact that we ran out of toilet paper and I haven’t showered in 5 days since I’m on my “No Pants Day” part of my work rotation.