Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[tx 3 putt 76,158]

good time to be in the barrel business !

 

[EuroHorn 3,204]

1 minute ago, bigup2dahorns said:

Oil just hit 1 cent per barrel for the May contract. Thanks a lot Bin Laden.

Paper towels and toilet paper are more expensive 

[bigup2dahorns 3,343]

Had to edit my post as oil now -$7 per barrel, first time ever negative for WTI

[Homercles 10,205]

9 minutes ago, Deej said:

I thought HEB was requiring masks to enter?

I know Travis county was but not sure Williamson.  No one asked me anything and I didn’t see signs, but I had one on. 

[Dahobbs 17,420]

11 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

https://www.localmemphis.com/article/news/health/health-alert/verify-headlines-comparing-the-coronavirus-to-spanish-flu-are-missing-context/522-e49808da-ddca-486c-b05a-8966e61a760c

here's an article where they talk to ferguson about spanish flu and covid. he talks about spanish flu being  approx 2% for US and UK per scientific papers.

he says the estimate is that in 1918 25-33% of UK had spanish flu and 230K died.  meaning 9.5M to 12.5M had it.  1.8 to 2.4% death rate.

if you take 33% of UK pop today about 67M you get 22.3M. multiply that by 2% IFR you get 447K.  His model showed 510K for UK.

for consistencies sake, 100M in US in 1918, CDC considers 1/3rd of pop got it.  33M * 2% = 660K  estiamted was 675K

estimated US pop today 330M  33% is 110M *2% is 2.2M

Yes his model number for UK shows to be approx 12% higher but IMO, the magnitude of the numbers being similar aren't coincidences at all.

I am not saying he said 510K or 2.2M would die but he put a model out giving those kinds of numbers as a very worst case scenario when there was no way that was going to happen.

 

(1) the continued allegations that the Imperial College didn't do the work it laid out in great detail are baseless and ridiculous. There is no reason for them to falsify that work. 

(2) The report on Covid-19 didn't even use the IFR's your referencing. It used half of that (~1%). 

(3) The report was explicit on what it was doing (laying out scenarios) and that the "no action" number wasn't likely to happen. That you misunderstood that is all on you. 

Seriously, there are real criticisms you can lay to any of the earlier estimates. Whackadoo conspiracy theory nonsense isn't it.

Edited April 20, 2020 by Dahobbs

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

2 hours ago, Loco said:

You mention freedom...  we don't have the "freedom" to do a lot of things in the name of public health.  Some entities drive a narrative that some group of individuals WANTS the US to have restrictions like these in place for no reason.   No one wants them, but they are warranted.   So that yowling bitch's impotent rage is the real issue... she clearly has mental health issues, and if they weren't focused on Covid-19 health protocols, you could be sure they would be focused on something similarly "terrible".

I imagine people like that were around when they implemented car seats for kids, seatbelts, DUI laws, minimum driving ages, etc.   

If she was aware that numerous entities, from the city/county level up to the federal level, were buying cell phone tower data to measure social distancing, etc. she would probably still hold on to her smartphone.  Gotta be able to complain on Facebook.  

For some of these people, it’s not going to hit home unless Ma or Pa gets it and they don’t get to hold their hand or look in their eyes as they are dying.   

[Deej 76,510]

Just now, Homercles said:

I know Travis county was but not sure Williamson.  No one asked me anything and I didn’t see signs, but I had one on. 

HEB posted it as their policy statewide. I'd be letting them know stores aren't following it. 

[Royalfan5 2,344]

Livestock update, cattle held at about 75% of capacity with Tyson-Dakota City out today and tomorrow, but hopefully just those two day. Hogs were about 70% as well, but better than a week ago, with still no news on restarting Sioux Falls, and Worthington down indefinitly as well. The big back up in hogs is going to be in NE NE, NC Iowa, South Dakota and Minnesota. You get further south and plants are holding up better. Starting to see poultry issues in the South too. 

[Js1 85,056]

I thought the back up in hogs was at Vic’s house?

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

12 minutes ago, bigup2dahorns said:

Had to edit my post as oil now -$7 per barrel, first time ever negative for WTI

Who is the largest oil importer? That's right. China.

It all makes sense now.

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

State parks are open.  Day use only.   Masks required

https://tpwd.texas.gov/state-parks/

• Wear face coverings at all times.
• Maintain a six-foot social distance from people not in your group.
• Gather in groups of no more than five people (even for family groups).

[utee94 15,742]

6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

State parks are open.  Day use only.   Masks required

https://tpwd.texas.gov/state-parks/

• Wear face coverings at all times.
• Maintain a six-foot social distance from people not in your group.
• Gather in groups of no more than five people (even for family groups).

So if you've got 4 kids, well... sorry little Jimmy, you have to stay over there by the rattlesnake weeds.

[kevwun 15,595]

They had to do something like that to keep people from having parties in the parks.

[Sbbruin 21,697]

2 hours ago, Iceman said:

How can you say it’s working when it’s not being executed?  People aren’t going to work, but  they’re hardly staying home.  They’re hardly staying isolated, as well.

I’m concerned about precedent for things going forward.  Now everytime a bat...um... person gets a caugh, we’re gonna shut the country down?  The cost vs benefit is insanely high.

Maybe it's different there, but out here people are, in large part, staying home.  Again, no everyone, but enough of them that it is making a huge difference.  And the stats bear that out.

[ChiTownDoc 21,091]

Daily Johns Hopkins Update:

 

Spoiler

 

April 20, 2020

 

EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Situation Report for April 19 reports 2.24 million confirmed cases and 153k deaths. That is 81k new cases and 6.5k new deaths from the previous day and 250k cases and 22k deaths since our Friday briefing. The European Region reached 100k total COVID-19 deaths. Europe accounts for half of the total global reported cases but two-thirds of the reported deaths.

 

Russia’s COVID-19 epidemic continues to accelerate, doubling approximately every 4-5 days. Official daily incidence from previous days is not available on the Russia MOH website; however, the WHO COVID-19 Situation Reports indicate steadily increasing daily incidence over the past 2 weeks, from 583 new cases on April 5 to 6,060 new cases on April 19. Russia officially reported 47,121 confirmed cases nationwide, including 405 deaths.

 

Pakistan reported 8,418 confirmed cases and 176 deaths on April 19—425 new cases and 17 new deaths from the previous day and 1,402 cases and 41 deaths since Friday’s briefing. Pakistan’s epidemic continues to accelerate, with 5 consecutive days of more than 400 new reported cases. Punjab province continues to represent a sizable portion of Pakistan's COVID-19 cases (3,721 cases; 44.2%), but the percentage is decreasing. India reported 17,656 confirmed cases and 559 deaths—4,271 new cases and 107 new deaths since Friday’s briefing. India’s COVID-19 epidemic appears to be accelerating, despite nationwide “lockdown” measures.

 

After several days of elevated COVID-19 incidence, Spain reported decreased daily totals over the weekend—but not as low as the daily totals reported early last week. In total, Spain reported 200,210 cases (4,266 new since the previous day) and 20,852 deaths—12,142 new cases and 1,374 deaths since Friday’s briefing. Italy reported 3,047 new COVID-19 cases on April 19, continuing its overall slow decline since its daily peak of 6,557 new cases on March 21. In total, Italy reported 178,972 cases and 23,660 deaths—10,031 cases and 1,470 deaths since Friday’s briefing. 

 

Indonesia reported only 185 new cases today, fewer than half of the daily total reported on Friday. This is the third consecutive day that Indonesia’s daily incidence has decreased. Indonesia’s COVID-19 epidemic had been growing overall in recent weeks, but it is unclear whether the recent decline signals the beginning of a longer-term trend. In total, Indonesia reported 6,760 confirmed cases and 590 deaths.

 

Singapore reported 2,964 new cases since Friday’s briefing, a 59% increase in total cases over the weekend. Residents of dormitories for migrant worker continue to drive Singapore’s epidemic. Detailed information on the 1,426 cases reported today is unavailable (although the preliminary press release indicates that “the vast majority” are dormitory residents); however, more than 70% of all cases reported in Singapore through April 19 were dormitory residents. Singapore’s COVID-19 Situation Report has not yet been updated; however, the national total is expected to be 8,014 confirmed cases and 11 deaths (1 new).

 

Japan has reported elevated COVID-19 incidence since approximately the beginning of April. The increase began in late March, from fewer than 50 new cases per day to a high of 385 new cases on April 6. With the exception of weekends, Japan has reported more than 200 cases nearly every day in April—with many greater than 300 cases. In total, Japan reported 10,751 confirmed cases (361 new) and 171 deaths (9 new).

 

The US CDC reported 720.6k total cases (1.3k probable) and 37.2k deaths (4.2k probable) on April 19. This represents 29.9k new cases since the previous day and 88k cases and 6.1k new deaths since our Friday briefing. In total, 16 states reported more than 10,000 cases (2 new since Friday’s briefing), and 26 states, plus Guam, are reporting widespread community transmission. Notably, 8 fewer states reported widespread transmission than did so in Friday’s briefing. The Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard* is reporting 762k US cases and 40.7k deaths as of 11:30am on April 20.

*The Johns Hopkins CSSE also publishes US-specific data, at the county level, on a dedicated dashboard.

 

New York state reported 222k cases and 14k deaths—6k new cases from the previous day and 20.5k new cases and 1.7k new deaths since Friday’s briefing. New York state has reported declining daily incidence for 4 consecutive days, down from its high of 11.6k new cases on April 14. New York City reported 117.6k cases and 10k deaths—12.2k new cases and 1.1k new deaths since Friday’s briefing. The Indian Health Service reported 1,212 total cases (384 new since Friday’s briefing), with 75% reported among the Navajo Nation (908 cases).

 

RELAXING SOCIAL DISTANCING Following US President Donald Trump’s unveiling of the federal government’s plan to relax social distancing—and associated tweets to “liberate” the states of Minnesota, Michigan, and Virginia—groups of protesters gathered in states across the country in opposition to existing physical distancing measures. The protesters assembled to call for governors to lift “stay at home” orders, including reopening non-essential businesses and permitting large gatherings. In Denver, Colorado, some protestors were met by local healthcare workers who stood in intersections wearing hospital scrubs and N95 respirators. Yesterday, President Trump stated that he supported the protestors, arguing that “some governors have gone too far” in their efforts to enforce physical distancing. Several state governors, both Republican and Democrat, raised concern about President Trump’s comments and highlighted the need to relax physical distancing measures in a way that mitigates the risk of increased transmission. Additionally, Dr. Anthony Fauci expressed his opposition to the protests, noting that prematurely relaxing physical distancing could “backfire” and cause increased transmission, which could further delay economic recovery.

 

The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, in collaboration with former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, published a guidance document to support governors’ efforts to determine when and how to relax existing physical distancing measures appropriately. This document builds on recommendations included in a previously published Road Map to Reopening, which included 4 phases and associated capacities and triggers. The current document emphasizes that each state is different and that a single approach will not address the unique needs, capabilities, and situations for all states. Regardless, governors should take an evidence-based approach, evaluating the current and projected COVID-19 epidemiology, testing and healthcare capacity, and other factors to develop their own risk assessments. The document includes high-level assessment transmission risk at non-essential businesses, schools, mass gatherings, and other settings, including the expected intensity of close contact, the size of the population, and the potential to modify operations to mitigate transmission risk. These types of analysis should factor into decisions regarding when and how to relax physical distancing measures and begin to resume public activity.

 

US SARS-CoV-2 TESTING As US states begin planning to relax physical distancing measures, testing capacity could once again be a limiting factor in the US COVID-19 response. One of the key components in the White House’s guidance to states is to establish sufficient testing capacity to implement effective surveillance and contact tracing efforts as physical distancing measures are lifted. Since the announcement, a number of governors have called for additional support from the federal government to increase testing capacity to a level that would support efforts to resume public activity. President Trump intends to invoke the Defense Production Act to increase production of swabs to support testing efforts nationwide, and Vice President Mike Pence announced that the federal government will provide additional information and support for state governments to ensure the availability of testing supplies and capacity to scale up SARS-CoV-2 appropriately to support relaxing physical distancing around the country.

 

In addition to diagnostic tests, serological testing is a growing priority, both for assessing population-level prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and determining individual-level exposure and risk. At this time, the US FDA has only issued Emergency Use Authorization for a small handful of serological tests; however, others have been developed and are available without FDA authorization. Some of these tests have been purchased for use by health departments, health systems, and others for use in determining individual exposure or to conduct community serological surveys, but there remains uncertainty regarding their reliability. Officials at the Association for Public Health Laboratories and other experts have expressed concern about the availability of SARS-CoV-2 serological tests without sufficient data to demonstrate their reliability.

 

GLOBAL RESPONSE Germany has reportedly begun reopening businesses after approximately a month of “lockdown”. Public health officials have recommended that people should wear face masks when riding on public transportation and in stores or other enclosed spaces, and some German states have made mask use mandatory. German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged people to follow guidance in order to avoid an increase in disease incidence, and she noted that it could take 14 days to evaluate the effects of resuming public activity on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. While some businesses have reopened, schools and certain businesses like hair salons are currently scheduled for opening May 4. Schools will reportedly prioritize final year students. While Germany contains the fifth-highest number of cases in the world, its number of deaths has remained relatively low, potentially a function of its extensive testing strategy. 

 

While African countries have reported lowered COVID-19 incidence and many have implemented contact tracing and other containment measures, the continent remains vulnerable to substantial morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. Many low-income countries have severe resource constraints, which can hinder public health and healthcare response to health emergencies such as pandemics. For example, a number of countries in Africa reportedly have fewer than 10 ventilators nationwide, and 10 have no ventilators at all. Even more concerning, only 15% of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa has access to clean water and soap. Higher-resource countries, such as South Africa, have greater supply of medical resources needed to treat COVID-19 patients, highlighting considerable disparities within the continent. Certain organizations and philanthropists have worked to donate or coordinate resources, including ventilators, to be sent to affected countries. Some countries have reported difficulties ordering supplies and equipment, because they are often unable to effectively compete against wealthier nations. A perspective article in The New England Journal of Medicine highlighted that “coordinated global support is essential” to combat COVID-19, particularly in terms of providing support for lower-resource nations, and explicitly called on countries to provide support for COVID-19 response in Africa. 

 

Some scientists in Indonesia are criticizing their government for a lack of coordination and transparency in its COVID-19 response strategy. Modeling estimates indicate that there could be extensive underreporting of cases in Indonesia, and there has been a reported spike in funerals (suggesting excess mortality) in March. Government officials have downplayed the severity of the pandemic; however, Indonesia’s Ministry of Health implemented social restrictions and “partial lockdowns” for certain affected regions. Like many other countries, testing capacity remains limited, and there have been challenges in establishing lab infrastructure to implement a broad, large-scale testing strategy.

 

MASS VACCINATION Faculty from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security published a commentary in Vaccine on the importance of modernizing and optimizing vaccine manufacturing, distribution, and administration in the context of COVID-19. According to the WHO, nearly 70 COVID-19 vaccine candidates are currently in development, with several undergoing early-stage clinical trials. Several candidates are using novel platforms, and others are using non-traditional methods of administration, including oral tablets and microneedle patches. The commentary highlights several key aspects and considerations for rapid vaccine manufacturing and calls for geographically distributed manufacturing capacity. Additionally, the authors describe potential benefits and considerations for next-generation vaccine administration approaches in order to streamline vaccine administration and expedite immunization coverage. 

 

CHINESE GOVERNMENT CALLS FOR STRONGER TESTING As China becomes one of the earliest countries to gradually ease physical distancing restrictions, including lockdowns of major cities, the government has called for more rigorous testing to prevent a resurgence of cases, from either travelers or from local transmission as well as an increasing number of COVID-19 clusters. The government specifically identified Guangdong and Heilongjiang provinces as areas where greatest improvement was needed, as there has been an influx of Chinese citizens returning to those regions from abroad. An article published last week demonstrated the challenges of easing restrictions, as clusters have emerged in recent weeks, connected to imported cases, asymptomatic transmission, and local dinner parties and other social gatherings. As China begins to relax social distancing measures nationwide, it could provide key lessons for other countries that are anticipating similar efforts in the coming weeks and months.

 

SWEDISH “HERD IMMUNITY” According to news media reports, a Swedish health officials claimed that infection rates in Stockholm are slowing and that parts of the country could achieve “herd immunity” in the next several weeks. According to Dr. Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s national epidemiologist, epidemiological models indicated that data are showing decreased transmission in some cities, including Stockholm, and that there could be enough infected individuals in the city to make a substantial impact by May. He acknowledged that the models could be incorrect. The announcement comes amid reports of increased deaths in Sweden, which Dr. Tegnell attributed to a failure to protect high-risk populations rather than elevated levels of community transmission. Sweden has taken a rather unorthodox approach to responding to COVID-19, compared to other countries, resisting efforts to implement more aggressive social distancing measures. Swedish officials have emphasized that they are not attempting to develop herd immunity, but rather, they are not implementing formal “lockdown” like other countries. Despite the less aggressive distancing measures, Sweden has reported an increase in unemployment to 8%.

 

Edited April 20, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[NeverMarryAStripper 21,780]

Anti vaxxers are already gearing up to oppose the Covid-19 vaccine

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4,965]

Spoiler that longcat crap.

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

55 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, but at any given time, there are 9-10 Karens circling the parking lot.  Do you want chat with the cop?

Ha ha yeah.  Duct tape, and tinted windows for the win....

[C-Man 26,991]

9 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

Anti vaxxers are already gearing up to oppose the Covid-19 vaccine

Novak Djokovic is one of them.

[ChiTownDoc 21,091]

13 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Spoiler that longcat crap.

LOL, done.  My bad. 

[ChiTownDoc 21,091]

5 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Novak Djokovic is one of them.

Buddy is a huge Djoker fan...he was devastated by this news.  No really, he was not happy.  Also Novak's wife is a 5g nutter too.  Very cool. 

[GopherRock 1,765]

Hard to see JBS in Worthington shut down. Seemed that they tried to social distance in the plant after the Smithfield fiasco in Sioux Falls, but it's now officially a hot spot. MDH commissioner said that language difficulties played a part in the slow investigations. 

Of the 41 cases in Nobles County interviewed on Saturday, 39 of them were either plant employees or their families. 

Ive seen a few shared posts on Facebook where pork producers that did have hogs going to either Worthington or Sioux Falls are now working with local locker plants to direct-sell quarters and halves. By the looks of it, there were plenty of buyers. Not great but better than nothing. 

[G650 13,989]

2 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

On a meat note, beef prices are now within $5 of the recent spike high, #hogs with $13, with a big jump in bellies today. JBS has 20K a day plant down in Minnesota now for hogs, and it looks like we will be close to 70% capacity on runs to start the week. Short term there still shouldn't be major issues with meat supply, it's the back end where it will get wild especially on hogs because backed up cattle can be slowed down on gain, and hogs will probably have to be gassed or shot if they can't find processor space, and that will leave a hole this fall. 

Well, I did my part this weekend to keep bacon demand high.

[Schulz2.0 28,752]

11 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Buddy is a huge Djoker fan...he was devastated by this news.  No really, he was not happy.  Also Novak's wife is a 5g nutter too.  Very cool. 

Even intelligent people can believe some straight up nutty shit. It's weird.

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

Just now, Schulz2.0 said:

Even intelligent people can believe some straight up nutty shit.

Yet another Surly Motto rises from this thread.

[Homercles 10,205]

37 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Daily Johns Hopkins Update:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

April 20, 2020

 

EPI UPDATE The WHO COVID-19 Situation Report for April 19 reports 2.24 million confirmed cases and 153k deaths. That is 81k new cases and 6.5k new deaths from the previous day and 250k cases and 22k deaths since our Friday briefing. The European Region reached 100k total COVID-19 deaths. Europe accounts for half of the total global reported cases but two-thirds of the reported deaths.

 

Russia’s COVID-19 epidemic continues to accelerate, doubling approximately every 4-5 days. Official daily incidence from previous days is not available on the Russia MOH website; however, the WHO COVID-19 Situation Reports indicate steadily increasing daily incidence over the past 2 weeks, from 583 new cases on April 5 to 6,060 new cases on April 19. Russia officially reported 47,121 confirmed cases nationwide, including 405 deaths.

 

Pakistan reported 8,418 confirmed cases and 176 deaths on April 19—425 new cases and 17 new deaths from the previous day and 1,402 cases and 41 deaths since Friday’s briefing. Pakistan’s epidemic continues to accelerate, with 5 consecutive days of more than 400 new reported cases. Punjab province continues to represent a sizable portion of Pakistan's COVID-19 cases (3,721 cases; 44.2%), but the percentage is decreasing. India reported 17,656 confirmed cases and 559 deaths—4,271 new cases and 107 new deaths since Friday’s briefing. India’s COVID-19 epidemic appears to be accelerating, despite nationwide “lockdown” measures.

 

After several days of elevated COVID-19 incidence, Spain reported decreased daily totals over the weekend—but not as low as the daily totals reported early last week. In total, Spain reported 200,210 cases (4,266 new since the previous day) and 20,852 deaths—12,142 new cases and 1,374 deaths since Friday’s briefing. Italy reported 3,047 new COVID-19 cases on April 19, continuing its overall slow decline since its daily peak of 6,557 new cases on March 21. In total, Italy reported 178,972 cases and 23,660 deaths—10,031 cases and 1,470 deaths since Friday’s briefing. 

 

Indonesia reported only 185 new cases today, fewer than half of the daily total reported on Friday. This is the third consecutive day that Indonesia’s daily incidence has decreased. Indonesia’s COVID-19 epidemic had been growing overall in recent weeks, but it is unclear whether the recent decline signals the beginning of a longer-term trend. In total, Indonesia reported 6,760 confirmed cases and 590 deaths.

 

Singapore reported 2,964 new cases since Friday’s briefing, a 59% increase in total cases over the weekend. Residents of dormitories for migrant worker continue to drive Singapore’s epidemic. Detailed information on the 1,426 cases reported today is unavailable (although the preliminary press release indicates that “the vast majority” are dormitory residents); however, more than 70% of all cases reported in Singapore through April 19 were dormitory residents. Singapore’s COVID-19 Situation Report has not yet been updated; however, the national total is expected to be 8,014 confirmed cases and 11 deaths (1 new).

 

Japan has reported elevated COVID-19 incidence since approximately the beginning of April. The increase began in late March, from fewer than 50 new cases per day to a high of 385 new cases on April 6. With the exception of weekends, Japan has reported more than 200 cases nearly every day in April—with many greater than 300 cases. In total, Japan reported 10,751 confirmed cases (361 new) and 171 deaths (9 new).

 

The US CDC reported 720.6k total cases (1.3k probable) and 37.2k deaths (4.2k probable) on April 19. This represents 29.9k new cases since the previous day and 88k cases and 6.1k new deaths since our Friday briefing. In total, 16 states reported more than 10,000 cases (2 new since Friday’s briefing), and 26 states, plus Guam, are reporting widespread community transmission. Notably, 8 fewer states reported widespread transmission than did so in Friday’s briefing. The Johns Hopkins CSSE dashboard* is reporting 762k US cases and 40.7k deaths as of 11:30am on April 20.

*The Johns Hopkins CSSE also publishes US-specific data, at the county level, on a dedicated dashboard.

 

New York state reported 222k cases and 14k deaths—6k new cases from the previous day and 20.5k new cases and 1.7k new deaths since Friday’s briefing. New York state has reported declining daily incidence for 4 consecutive days, down from its high of 11.6k new cases on April 14. New York City reported 117.6k cases and 10k deaths—12.2k new cases and 1.1k new deaths since Friday’s briefing. The Indian Health Service reported 1,212 total cases (384 new since Friday’s briefing), with 75% reported among the Navajo Nation (908 cases).

 

RELAXING SOCIAL DISTANCING Following US President Donald Trump’s unveiling of the federal government’s plan to relax social distancing—and associated tweets to “liberate” the states of Minnesota, Michigan, and Virginia—groups of protesters gathered in states across the country in opposition to existing physical distancing measures. The protesters assembled to call for governors to lift “stay at home” orders, including reopening non-essential businesses and permitting large gatherings. In Denver, Colorado, some protestors were met by local healthcare workers who stood in intersections wearing hospital scrubs and N95 respirators. Yesterday, President Trump stated that he supported the protestors, arguing that “some governors have gone too far” in their efforts to enforce physical distancing. Several state governors, both Republican and Democrat, raised concern about President Trump’s comments and highlighted the need to relax physical distancing measures in a way that mitigates the risk of increased transmission. Additionally, Dr. Anthony Fauci expressed his opposition to the protests, noting that prematurely relaxing physical distancing could “backfire” and cause increased transmission, which could further delay economic recovery.

 

The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, in collaboration with former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb, published a guidance document to support governors’ efforts to determine when and how to relax existing physical distancing measures appropriately. This document builds on recommendations included in a previously published Road Map to Reopening, which included 4 phases and associated capacities and triggers. The current document emphasizes that each state is different and that a single approach will not address the unique needs, capabilities, and situations for all states. Regardless, governors should take an evidence-based approach, evaluating the current and projected COVID-19 epidemiology, testing and healthcare capacity, and other factors to develop their own risk assessments. The document includes high-level assessment transmission risk at non-essential businesses, schools, mass gatherings, and other settings, including the expected intensity of close contact, the size of the population, and the potential to modify operations to mitigate transmission risk. These types of analysis should factor into decisions regarding when and how to relax physical distancing measures and begin to resume public activity.

 

US SARS-CoV-2 TESTING As US states begin planning to relax physical distancing measures, testing capacity could once again be a limiting factor in the US COVID-19 response. One of the key components in the White House’s guidance to states is to establish sufficient testing capacity to implement effective surveillance and contact tracing efforts as physical distancing measures are lifted. Since the announcement, a number of governors have called for additional support from the federal government to increase testing capacity to a level that would support efforts to resume public activity. President Trump intends to invoke the Defense Production Act to increase production of swabs to support testing efforts nationwide, and Vice President Mike Pence announced that the federal government will provide additional information and support for state governments to ensure the availability of testing supplies and capacity to scale up SARS-CoV-2 appropriately to support relaxing physical distancing around the country.

 

In addition to diagnostic tests, serological testing is a growing priority, both for assessing population-level prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and determining individual-level exposure and risk. At this time, the US FDA has only issued Emergency Use Authorization for a small handful of serological tests; however, others have been developed and are available without FDA authorization. Some of these tests have been purchased for use by health departments, health systems, and others for use in determining individual exposure or to conduct community serological surveys, but there remains uncertainty regarding their reliability. Officials at the Association for Public Health Laboratories and other experts have expressed concern about the availability of SARS-CoV-2 serological tests without sufficient data to demonstrate their reliability.

 

GLOBAL RESPONSE Germany has reportedly begun reopening businesses after approximately a month of “lockdown”. Public health officials have recommended that people should wear face masks when riding on public transportation and in stores or other enclosed spaces, and some German states have made mask use mandatory. German Chancellor Angela Merkel urged people to follow guidance in order to avoid an increase in disease incidence, and she noted that it could take 14 days to evaluate the effects of resuming public activity on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. While some businesses have reopened, schools and certain businesses like hair salons are currently scheduled for opening May 4. Schools will reportedly prioritize final year students. While Germany contains the fifth-highest number of cases in the world, its number of deaths has remained relatively low, potentially a function of its extensive testing strategy. 

 

While African countries have reported lowered COVID-19 incidence and many have implemented contact tracing and other containment measures, the continent remains vulnerable to substantial morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. Many low-income countries have severe resource constraints, which can hinder public health and healthcare response to health emergencies such as pandemics. For example, a number of countries in Africa reportedly have fewer than 10 ventilators nationwide, and 10 have no ventilators at all. Even more concerning, only 15% of the population in Sub-Saharan Africa has access to clean water and soap. Higher-resource countries, such as South Africa, have greater supply of medical resources needed to treat COVID-19 patients, highlighting considerable disparities within the continent. Certain organizations and philanthropists have worked to donate or coordinate resources, including ventilators, to be sent to affected countries. Some countries have reported difficulties ordering supplies and equipment, because they are often unable to effectively compete against wealthier nations. A perspective article in The New England Journal of Medicine highlighted that “coordinated global support is essential” to combat COVID-19, particularly in terms of providing support for lower-resource nations, and explicitly called on countries to provide support for COVID-19 response in Africa. 

 

Some scientists in Indonesia are criticizing their government for a lack of coordination and transparency in its COVID-19 response strategy. Modeling estimates indicate that there could be extensive underreporting of cases in Indonesia, and there has been a reported spike in funerals (suggesting excess mortality) in March. Government officials have downplayed the severity of the pandemic; however, Indonesia’s Ministry of Health implemented social restrictions and “partial lockdowns” for certain affected regions. Like many other countries, testing capacity remains limited, and there have been challenges in establishing lab infrastructure to implement a broad, large-scale testing strategy.

 

MASS VACCINATION Faculty from the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security published a commentary in Vaccine on the importance of modernizing and optimizing vaccine manufacturing, distribution, and administration in the context of COVID-19. According to the WHO, nearly 70 COVID-19 vaccine candidates are currently in development, with several undergoing early-stage clinical trials. Several candidates are using novel platforms, and others are using non-traditional methods of administration, including oral tablets and microneedle patches. The commentary highlights several key aspects and considerations for rapid vaccine manufacturing and calls for geographically distributed manufacturing capacity. Additionally, the authors describe potential benefits and considerations for next-generation vaccine administration approaches in order to streamline vaccine administration and expedite immunization coverage. 

 

CHINESE GOVERNMENT CALLS FOR STRONGER TESTING As China becomes one of the earliest countries to gradually ease physical distancing restrictions, including lockdowns of major cities, the government has called for more rigorous testing to prevent a resurgence of cases, from either travelers or from local transmission as well as an increasing number of COVID-19 clusters. The government specifically identified Guangdong and Heilongjiang provinces as areas where greatest improvement was needed, as there has been an influx of Chinese citizens returning to those regions from abroad. An article published last week demonstrated the challenges of easing restrictions, as clusters have emerged in recent weeks, connected to imported cases, asymptomatic transmission, and local dinner parties and other social gatherings. As China begins to relax social distancing measures nationwide, it could provide key lessons for other countries that are anticipating similar efforts in the coming weeks and months.

 

SWEDISH “HERD IMMUNITY” According to news media reports, a Swedish health officials claimed that infection rates in Stockholm are slowing and that parts of the country could achieve “herd immunity” in the next several weeks. According to Dr. Anders Tegnell, Sweden’s national epidemiologist, epidemiological models indicated that data are showing decreased transmission in some cities, including Stockholm, and that there could be enough infected individuals in the city to make a substantial impact by May. He acknowledged that the models could be incorrect. The announcement comes amid reports of increased deaths in Sweden, which Dr. Tegnell attributed to a failure to protect high-risk populations rather than elevated levels of community transmission. Sweden has taken a rather unorthodox approach to responding to COVID-19, compared to other countries, resisting efforts to implement more aggressive social distancing measures. Swedish officials have emphasized that they are not attempting to develop herd immunity, but rather, they are not implementing formal “lockdown” like other countries. Despite the less aggressive distancing measures, Sweden has reported an increase in unemployment to 8%.

 

New forms?  Micro needles?  

[ChiTownDoc 21,091]

13 minutes ago, G650 said:

Well, I did my part this weekend to keep bacon demand high.

Well played outlining which meat.  The sausage jokes were about to come flying in...

[G650 13,989]

Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

Well played outlining which meat.  The sausage jokes were about to come flying in...

Well, I was initially gonna say hog, but thought better of it.

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

16 minutes ago, G650 said:

Well, I was initially gonna say hog, but thought better of it.

An image of Ned Beatty in tighty whiteys, somewhere in Ga. just raced thru my mind......... I shuddered, and gag reflexed a bit....

[InkaUtexas 25,424]

23 minutes ago, G650 said:

Well, I was initially gonna say hog, but thought better of it.

You didn't want to piss off Vic? 

[clapclapclap 9,000]

Interesting data from an Ohio prison where everyone was tested:  73% of inmates are infected, 2% hospitalized,, and zero deaths (so far.)  109 employees infected, of those 1 death and 8 recovered so far.

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/static/DRCCOVID-19Information.pdf

https://www.nbc4i.com/community/health/coronavirus/more-than-1800-inmates-at-marion-prison-test-positive-for-coronavirus/

...As of Sunday, 1,828 Marion Correctional inmates have tested positive, along with 109 staff members. Of the 1,828 cases, 38 are currently receiving outside hospital level care, according to an Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction spokesperson.

There are approximately 2,500 inmates in the Marion Correctional Institution.

One staff death was announced on April 8, corrections officer John Dawson. No inmates at Marion Correctional have died.

According to the ODRC, mass testing has been instituted at Marion Correctional, as well as Pickaway Correctional and the Franklin Medical Center.

“Because we are testing everyone – including those who are not showing symptoms – we are getting positive test results on individuals who otherwise would have never been tested because they were asymptomatic,” ODRC said in its daily release of information.

Individuals who test positive are placed in an area of the facility which is separate from the general population, ODRC’s statement said.... 

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

1 hour ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Ha ha yeah.  Duct tape, and tinted windows for the win....

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

Heard something on the radio about NYPD losing 29 cops to covid.   I was expecting a lot more (they have 38,000+ cops).

[Js1 85,056]

Looks like Georgia is the major reopening test case 

 

[utee94 15,742]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Looks like Georgia is the major reopening test case 

 

Ballgame

[Dnaguy 11,740]

21 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Interesting data from an Ohio prison where everyone was tested:  73% of inmates are infected, 2% hospitalized,, and zero deaths (so far.)  109 employees infected, of those 1 death and 8 recovered so far.

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/static/DRCCOVID-19Information.pdf

https://www.nbc4i.com/community/health/coronavirus/more-than-1800-inmates-at-marion-prison-test-positive-for-coronavirus/

...As of Sunday, 1,828 Marion Correctional inmates have tested positive, along with 109 staff members. Of the 1,828 cases, 38 are currently receiving outside hospital level care, according to an Ohio Department of Rehabilitation and Correction spokesperson.

There are approximately 2,500 inmates in the Marion Correctional Institution.

One staff death was announced on April 8, corrections officer John Dawson. No inmates at Marion Correctional have died.

According to the ODRC, mass testing has been instituted at Marion Correctional, as well as Pickaway Correctional and the Franklin Medical Center.

“Because we are testing everyone – including those who are not showing symptoms – we are getting positive test results on individuals who otherwise would have never been tested because they were asymptomatic,” ODRC said in its daily release of information.

Individuals who test positive are placed in an area of the facility which is separate from the general population, ODRC’s statement said.... 

If 1 more person dies then it’s 0.1% fatality, correct?

Isnt that in line with what’s being reported everywhere?

Yes I do realize that what I’m saying is a 100% increase in fatalities... but Idk if this is really saying much in regards to the disease.

[RDCanecutter 26,239]

3 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Why do you keep acting like your neck of the woods defines it as not working everywhere?  It’s 100% working in Chicago.  

Uh, he doesn't have woods where he is.

[RPM 26,185]

So we gonna hit 100K US deaths by the end of the week?

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Ballgame

[dcar00 14,023]

2 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

(1) the continued allegations that the Imperial College didn't do the work it laid out in great detail are baseless and ridiculous. There is no reason for them to falsify that work. 

(2) The report on Covid-19 didn't even use the IFR's your referencing. It used half of that (~1%). 

(3) The report was explicit on what it was doing (laying out scenarios) and that the "no action" number wasn't likely to happen. That you misunderstood that is all on you. 

Seriously, there are real criticisms you can lay to any of the earlier estimates. Whackadoo conspiracy theory nonsense isn't it.

Oh I agree they did the work.  I didn't misunderstand anything.  The 2.2M number was bullshit based on using default values, getting an R0 of 2.4(adjusted for what they felt was a problem with natural historical parameters, again an estimate based on other estimates) and 81% of gen pop infected(really?) and an approx .9x% IFR.  I believe the China number was .66% in the report you referenced.  why didn't they use that?

The report had no basis in reality and was bunk from the get go.

[mycox 582]

4 hours ago, huge said:

People in Houston are behaving for the most part.  That's my anecdotal contribution for the day.

Montrose Friday night

[ChiTownDoc 21,091]

3 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Uh, he doesn't have woods where he is.

Neck of the tumbleweeds...and herpes.

[ChiTownDoc 21,091]

1 minute ago, mycox said:

Montrose Friday night

If there were any crowded grocery stores in the greater Houston area, this pic doesn't exist 

[Snake Diggity 4,614]

6 hours ago, Iceman said:

That part is absolutely real.  The shutdown of commerce and businesses is indisputable. You are positing that everyone is toeing the line and staying away from one another, because it sure as fuck isn’t what I’m seeing, nor is it what my counterparts  who work in the public are experiencing either.

It’s a fucking shell game, at best; with regard to folks abiding by the prescribed tactics.  

The man has “counterparts that work in the public”.  And he said “fuck” twice.  I think we should listen to him.

[GabrielsHorn 2,142]

21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Looks like Georgia is the major reopening test case 

 

Finally mixing it up for the next season of The Walking Dead 

[C-Man 26,991]

1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Buddy is a huge Djoker fan...he was devastated by this news.  No really, he was not happy.  Also Novak's wife is a 5g nutter too.  Very cool. 

I remember him going on his huge tear once he went completely gluten-free.

[utee94 15,742]

12 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

The man has “counterparts that work in the public”.  And he said “fuck” twice.  I think we should listen to him.

I mean, I get it.  I understand his frustration.

When a lot of us-- the large majority of us I'd say-- are taking it seriously and doing our best to comply, at varying degrees of personal cost up to and including losing jobs, I understand feeling angry at the jackasses that are blowing it off and trying to get one over on the government or the public or just being generally self-centered and self-serving asswipes.  It makes me angry too.

But that doesn't mean the sacrifices aren't helping, even though the exact amount of help is impossible ever to know for sure.   

 

[shakahorn 1,625]

37 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Looks like Georgia is the major reopening test case 

 

The GA governor was the one who, until around April 1, didn't know asymptomatic people could spread the virus, right?  Doubling down on the stupid I guess.

[EuroHorn 3,204]

May 16, the universe smiles

 

https://www.narcity.com/news/us/tx/a-smiley-face-moon-conjunction-this-may-will-be-a-sight-to-see

 

 

[bullzak 411]

All the reopening talk begs the question of how flat the curve has to be to reopen. I am sure the medical experts would say no new cases but I dont think that is realistic when you have a potential depression on your hands. 

The fact that Texas and Florida seem to have so few problems suggest that maybe warm weather is going to be a factor. 

I think we are going to be pretty much opened up in the next 60 days all over the country no matter what. 

We are going to reopen with some degree of risk. How much is the question.