Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Js1 85056]

2 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Just poke a hole in your mask and duct tape a straw in it.  

[gmr548 16463]

Read that as "maybe poop in the office once a week..."

Nah, I'll still go in to shit five days a week.

[DDD Dad 14167]

10 minutes ago, Lerka Lerka said:

Just like your mom /obligatory 

How and when did this smack talk nonsense about South Austin's mom even get started? 

There's a thread for that.

[bschoolprof 6232]

4 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

Well, that and just saying the Swedes haven't shutdown is a bit misleading. The government hasn't mandated shutdowns, but people, at the government's suggestion, are doing a lot of economic shutdown on their own:

"Swedes appear to be following such guidelines without the need for legislation. Trips from Stockholm to Gotland -- a popular vacation destination -- dropped by 96% over the Easter weekend, according to data from the country’s largest mobile operator, Telia Company. And online service Citymapper’s statistics indicate an almost 75% drop in mobility in the capital.

Sweden also recently pushed back against the notion that there’s little to no social distancing going on.

'We don’t have a radically different view,' Foreign Minister Ann Linde said in an interview with Radio Sweden. 'The government has made a series of decisions that affect the whole society. It’s a myth that life goes on as normal in Sweden.'"

 

20 minutes ago, Js1 said:

From my understanding of Polis’ announcement, it’s transitioning from a stay at home order to a “strong suggestion” as certain businesses can reopen. 

For all the sound and fury over when to reopen and Sweden vs the rest of the world, my prediction for the last couple of weeks has been that most areas (outside of NYC metro) are headed for a Sweden-like policy very soon.  For better or worse, they just didn't go into to the government-mandated lock down that we went through first, but we will ultimately end up with very similar policies (I think that's largely their point about sustainability). Large crowds and gatherings will be banned, strong social distancing and hygiene will be encouraged, and masks potentially mandated, but many business will reopen soon.  There's really not much practical choice.  Widespread testing and tracing and quarantining would be ideal, but it's a pipe dream.  

[B00M 6278]

https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/

Refreshed the UT model for Texas again not expecting to see a change and instead got a big one:

Probability that the peak has already passed: 64%

Probability that peak will have passed within 7 days: 89%

Probability that peak will have passed within 14 days: 96%

[bschoolprof 6232]

3 minutes ago, B00M said:

https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/

Refreshed the UT model for Texas again not expecting to see a change and instead got a big one:

Probability that the peak has already passed: 64%

Probability that peak will have passed within 7 days: 89%

Probability that peak will have passed within 14 days: 96%

This model is very similar to the IHME model, but it's supplemented with GPS data on social distancing.  Still, it's a death-curve fitting exercise, not an epidemiological model.  So as new daily death data comes in, they update the likelihood the curve has peaked.  If you download the daily COVID tracking data , you will see that daily deaths in Texas have fallen in the last few days, hence an increase in the chance we've peaked.  

[tantric superman 4667]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

Some of them don’t even know how to ride bikes.  I’ve seen at least 3 different kids that should be between 6-8 grade learning how to ride bikes with their parents since this shit has started.  

Ha.  I'm really enjoying the kids out front.  I'm one of these guys who is always really careful about learning new things - I walked at 18 months and rode a bike at 7 I think.  In other words, a pussy.

There are two twins down the road - six, and one of them was riding the bike at the beginning of the pandemic, and the other -- the thoughtful one who talks to me about what he's reading, just couldn't get it.  He kept going up and down on his razor, and then was on the little practice bike.

About a week into the pandemic, when I was starting to really stress out for him because he was looking really bummed, he figured it out.

May have been high point of this nonsense for me so far.  Was stoked!

 

Edited April 21, 2020 by tantric superman

[po elvis 2070]

so we ran out of syrup the other day. we rarely use syrup, but we ran out. there is a box sitting outside my house today from Sam's club. it is pretty heavy. I ask my GF and she says it is probably syrup. she says there was no delivery charge so she ordered syrup. I open it up and there are 2 - 64 oz jugs of syrup.

 

[UT_OB1 2200]

2 minutes ago, po elvis said:

so we ran out of syrup the other day. we rarely use syrup, but we ran out. there is a box sitting outside my house today from Sam's club. it is pretty heavy. I ask my GF and she says it is probably syrup. she says there was no delivery charge so she ordered syrup. I open it up and there are 2 - 64 oz jugs of syrup.

 

They make a 1 gallon version as well.  Ask me how I know.  

[dcar00 14023]

3 minutes ago, po elvis said:

so we ran out of syrup the other day. we rarely use syrup, but we ran out. there is a box sitting outside my house today from Sam's club. it is pretty heavy. I ask my GF and she says it is probably syrup. she says there was no delivery charge so she ordered syrup. I open it up and there are 2 - 64 oz jugs of syrup.

 

[po elvis 2070]

Just now, UT_OB1 said:

They make a 1 gallon version as well.  Ask me how I know.  

she was ordering shit yesterday for her HEB curbside in a week and asked me if I needed deodorant. i said "you bought me 4 things of deodorant 2 weeks ago".

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

so we ran out of syrup the other day. we rarely use syrup, but we ran out. there is a box sitting outside my house today from Sam's club. it is pretty heavy. I ask my GF and she says it is probably syrup. she says there was no delivery charge so she ordered syrup. I open it up and there are 2 - 64 oz jugs of syrup.

 

Should be good until the pandemic of 2122

[NorthLoop 14071]

6 minutes ago, po elvis said:

so we ran out of syrup the other day. we rarely use syrup, but we ran out. there is a box sitting outside my house today from Sam's club. it is pretty heavy. I ask my GF and she says it is probably syrup. she says there was no delivery charge so she ordered syrup. I open it up and there are 2 - 64 oz jugs of syrup.

 

We eat a lot of pancakes. HEB has been consistently out of syrup. Right now we have like five or six 8oz bottles of syrup in our pantry. Can I borrow some syrup? 

[B00M 6278]

1 minute ago, NorthLoop said:

HEB has been consistently out of syrup.

We're so fat

[Trey3216 15325]

8 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Ha.  I'm really enjoying the kids out front.  I'm one of these guys who is always really careful about learning new things - I walked at 18 months and rode a bike at 7 I think.  In other words, a pussy.

There are two twins down the road - six, and one of them was riding the bike at the beginning of the pandemic, and the other -- the thoughtful one who talks to me about what he's reading, just couldn't get it.  He kept going up and down on his razor, and then was on the little practice bike.

About a week into the pandemic, when I was starting to really stress out for him because he was looking really bummed, he figured it out.

May have been high point of this nonsense for me so far.  Was stoked!

 

I hear ya.  I was always a caution to the wind type, and after I was cleared to play athletics (that’s a long ass story that I need to and will tell sometime) I was riding BMX shit as soon as I got on a bike.   But seeing 12 year olds try and learn to ride a bike is heartbreaking to me.  “Sign of the times” and yada yada, but for God’s sake teach your kid how to ride a bike people.   They’ll actually be better drivers if they know how to ride a bike as a kid (jackwagons who think they can do whatever they want on the bike excluded, there’s a thread for that) 

[Trey3216 15325]

12 minutes ago, po elvis said:

so we ran out of syrup the other day. we rarely use syrup, but we ran out. there is a box sitting outside my house today from Sam's club. it is pretty heavy. I ask my GF and she says it is probably syrup. she says there was no delivery charge so she ordered syrup. I open it up and there are 2 - 64 oz jugs of syrup.

 

Did you ask her if she preferred jelly or syrup?

[tantric superman 4667]

6 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

We eat a lot of pancakes. HEB has been consistently out of syrup. Right now we have like five or six 8oz bottles of syrup in our pantry. Can I borrow some syrup? 

edited because slow with the Elf joke...

Edited April 21, 2020 by tantric superman

[Your Mom 4789]

6 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Should be good until the pandemic of 2122

Your GF prefers syrup.

[UT_OB1 2200]

4 minutes ago, po elvis said:

she was ordering shit yesterday for her HEB curbside in a week and asked me if I needed deodorant. i said "you bought me 4 things of deodorant 2 weeks ago".

Did you know that you can order cereal 8-12 boxes at a time?  We had 8-12 boxes of of 3-4 different cereals (each, so 40ish boxes of cereal) to kick this all off.  I've also got enough canned cheese, chili and beans to shut down our local sanitation plant.  I really must apologize for my house contributing to the run on food items last month.  

[C-Man 26992]

48 minutes ago, BigDHornfan said:

Dallas County just voted to extend SIP until May 15.

It's being called a "safer at home" order, though. Isn't that different wording than the one that expires on 4/30?

[C-Man 26992]

36 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

Just poke a hole in your mask and duct tape a straw in it.  

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

22 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

Ha.  I'm really enjoying the kids out front.  I'm one of these guys who is always really careful about learning new things - I walked at 18 months and rode a bike at 7 I think.  In other words, a pussy.

There are two twins down the road - six, and one of them was riding the bike at the beginning of the pandemic, and the other -- the thoughtful one who talks to me about what he's reading, just couldn't get it.  He kept going up and down on his razor, and then was on the little practice bike.

About a week into the pandemic, when I was starting to really stress out for him because he was looking really bummed, he figured it out.

May have been high point of this nonsense for me so far.  Was stoked!

 

Now build him a ramp and watch Evil Knievel videos together.

[XYZ 2154]

31 minutes ago, B00M said:

https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/

Refreshed the UT model for Texas again not expecting to see a change and instead got a big one:

Probability that the peak has already passed: 64%

Probability that peak will have passed within 7 days: 89%

Probability that peak will have passed within 14 days: 96%

It seems like that kind of analysis would only be useful if we were able to maintain the current lockdown for a long period of time, which we are not.

[tantric superman 4667]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Now build him a ramp and watch Evil Knievel videos together.

I asked the 3/4 year old with the razor what he keeps in his backpack.

"A bow and arrow.  And a bong,"

"A bong?"

"A bomb!  Made of sticks!"

My wife says I need to stop teasing the kids because there parents are going to start freaking out. 

(I was walking the dog, and the five year old was petting him, and the dog was licking her, and she shrieks "He's smelling my vagina!" at the top of her lungs.  I backed away slowly.) 

 

 

[GreenspointTexas 9556]

Deadliest day in the US thus far. Over 2500 cases and counting

[utee94 15742]

2 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

I just cut my own hair today... It didn't go terribly much to my surprise. I'm sure my neckline and rear taper are a steaming hot mess though.

My wife cut my 10yo son's hair today.  It.. wasn't good...

She offered to cut mine, and I politely declined.  So, my descent into further looking like early-Full House-John Stamos continues.

 

[bullzak 411]

2 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Governor Pritzker was on the news talking about how our peak is midMay.  We were all confused as to what the hell he is talking about.  Everything we have seen has us coming down off of the peak already

Yeah if he is going to say he is going off data he has to lay out what the data set is. People start thinking this is bullshit and shelter in place is just going to erode quickly. Especially if the weather finally gets decent. 

I think they want to lock down through Memorial Day but dont really have a solid data based reason for it. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Deadliest day in the US thus far. Over 2500 cases and counting

You new here? Every Tuesday sucks

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

2 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Yeah if he is going to say he is going off data he has to lay out what the data set is. People start thinking this is bullshit and shelter in place is just going to erode quickly. Especially if the weather finally gets decent. 

I think they want to lock down through Memorial Day but dont really have a solid data based reason for it. 

Totally agree, slowly open shit up morons.  Chicago has the capacity.  

[bullzak 411]

3 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Totally agree, slowly open shit up morons.  Chicago has the capacity.  

Listen to this man. He's even more than Pre-Med. 

[bullzak 411]

Had a friend who's dad died up in Canada [not COVID] this week. No flights in so he cant go bury his old man or visit the family. Heartbreaking. 

Edited April 21, 2020 by bullzak

[utee94 15742]

8 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Totally agree, slowly open shit up morons.  Chicago has the capacity.  

I can't wait for this to pass, because I'm tired of actually liking a Sooner-- I'd really enjoy getting back to hating you properly.  

[Macanudo 12922]

1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

100% behind this.
My dad is in the hospital for the 5th time since early March, first an aortic aneurysm repair and 4 followup visits and exploratory surgery tomorrow to find out whats still bleeding; well occasionally bleeding.
Anyway he's 89, but I've realized that his time may be near - but it's a struggle, but the worst part is not being able to go to the hospital and realizing that the last time I might have seen him was on his birthday 2 weeks ago through a window at his assisted living center. 
I've always thought it was weird that people took long journeys for a last visit to an aging relative who was near passing, seemed overly emotional, people need to deal with reality and quit being such a pussy. And then this happens, and I realize that I am a big fucking pussy....fuck it's getting dusty in here typing this one out. 

 

My dad went into the hospital early in February.  He'd been in and out so many times over the past 5 years that I often didnt know he'd even been there (he lived in Oregon.) I talked to him about every 2-3 weeks so he could easily spend a few days or even a week there for another bout with pneumonia or liver issues or whatever else.  But in early February he was back in and this time they found cancer in his liver, lungs and about everywhere else.  He already had a pretty severe cirrhosis issue.  He was my dad but we'd fallen out a long time ago and he'd burned pretty much every bridge he'd ever had. 

But, I planned a trip when they found cancer.  Figured he had several months at least but I decided to go up a week or so later.  He got the cancer news on a Thursday and had a meeting with oncology Friday morning.    He thought he would have treatment options until he saw the oncologist.  I was in contact with his doctor that week and he knew I was planning on coming.  Friday afternoon the doc called me and said "I cant tell you anything for sure but the sooner you can get up here,  the better.  Like maybe tomoorrow." 

I was on an 8 am flight out of IAH and in his hospital room just after lunch time.  Dad was awake and recognized me but it was obvious he was fading.  Spent all afternoon and evening with him.  Came back early Sunday morning and he was non-responsive to voices or stimuli but breathing in his own.  I left to go get his personal papers and start getting ready for whatever was next.  He had a living will and a DNR so it seemed like just a matter of time.

I was scheduled to meet hospice at noon and was on my way back go the hospital around 11:15 when the doc called me and said "How far out are you?  If you can get here soon."  I was about 5 minutes from the hospital.  I got to his room and he was laboriously breathing.  Sat there with him until the hospice worker showed up.  Maybe 10 minutes the breathing got shallower and very slow.  One or two struggling breaths and then a sort of whoosh.  And he was gone.  He had been a major jackass for most of his life to pretty much everyone he ever met but the sumbitch went out quickly and quietly.  Almost peacefully.  I was grateful to have been there so he didnt die alone or with strangers.  

This whole COVID thing is a big shit sandwich and we're all taking a bite.   

[Gale Snoats 242]

man that is rough.  glad you got to be there with him

[Js1 85056]

 

[ABSR 5289]

39 minutes ago, tantric superman said:

(I was walking the dog, and the five year old was petting him, and the dog was licking her, and she shrieks "He's smelling my vagina!" at the top of her lungs.  I backed away slowly.) 

 

 

You're also lucky the dog didn't bite you.

[aggie08 21380]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Personal accountability, bro.

\slorch

[Loco 3752]

21 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Yeah if he is going to say he is going off data he has to lay out what the data set is. People start thinking this is bullshit and shelter in place is just going to erode quickly. Especially if the weather finally gets decent. 

I think they want to lock down through Memorial Day but dont really have a solid data based reason for it. 

This is a fun read...

What Happens If U.S. Reopens Too Fast? Documents Show Federal Coronavirus Projections

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/21/839456638/what-happens-if-u-s-reopens-too-fast-federal-documents-show-coronavirus-projecti

The last sentence is the kicker...  "Epidemiological modeling needs to happen in the open. Usually you put a lid on the garbage."

[tantric superman 4667]

1 minute ago, ABSR said:

You're also lucky the dog didn't bite you.

You'll get some rep but I'm frowning.

 

[Brisketexan 104465]

11 minutes ago, Gale Snoats said:

man that is rough.  glad you got to be there with him

Yeah....damn sorry to hear it, brother.

[bschoolprof 6232]

1 hour ago, BigDHornfan said:

Dallas County just voted to extend SIP until May 15.

Abbot was asked about this today at his PC.  He stated that he will be issuing a new executive order on 4/27. To the extent it has statewide re-opening directives, they will override any local directives.  

[MonkeyDoughnut 10134]

10 minutes ago, Loco said:

This is a fun read...

What Happens If U.S. Reopens Too Fast? Documents Show Federal Coronavirus Projections

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/21/839456638/what-happens-if-u-s-reopens-too-fast-federal-documents-show-coronavirus-projecti

The last sentence is the kicker...  "Epidemiological modeling needs to happen in the open. Usually you put a lid on the garbage."

I found this one great: "Experts said government officials should publicize their coronavirus assumptions so everyone can be confident in their work."

Found below where their projections range from: 94k to 1.1M

[Skipper 6088]

1 hour ago, BigDHornfan said:

Dallas County just voted to extend SIP until May 15.

I heard that as well but haven't heard any explanation, or most importantly, anything resembling a fucking plan.   The reality is that the curve has flattened in Dallas.  Period. We have plenty of hospital capacity.  Unless the hospital data to be released today (which they are several hours late updating, per usual) shows a completely unexpected increase over the weekend, hospitalizations peaked 2 weeks ago. I haven't heard or read anything about being significantly low on PPE or supplies either. 

So the only thing that may be better on May 15 vs. May 1 is testing.  And if that is what they are waiting to figure out, then just fucking say so.   Seriously, say we want to have better testing and contact tracing in place, we think we will have that by May 15th, here is our plan.  

Otherwise, it's intellectually dishonest to anyone that is actually paying attention.  The curve isn't going to become meaningfully flatter between now and then.  It pretty much is what it is.  I just think extending without simultaneously releasing your game plan is fucking stupid and will backfire.   Jenkins is blowing a lot of the goodwill he had early on IMO.  The reality is Dallas hasn't had the suffering other places have had (largely because of the orders) but you can't just keep extending it out without explaining to the public why it is necessary to make that decision now, on April 21st.  Don't think it will go over well in Dallas, we'll see.

[Trey3216 15325]

41 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

You new here? Every Tuesday sucks

It’s actually gone with the wind 

[XYZ 2154]

39 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Had a friend who's dad died up in Canada [not COVID] this week. No flights in so he cant go bury his old man or visit the family. Heartbreaking. 

I’m confused about this. Can American citizens fly to Canada or can they not?

[Parliament 14112]

https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/de-blasios-social-distancing-tip-line-flooded-with-obscenities/?utm_source=twitter_sitebuttons&utm_medium=site%20buttons&utm_campaign=site%20buttons
De Blasio’s social distancing (just the) tip line flooded with penis photos, Hitler memes
Mayor Bill de Blasio’s critics let him know how they really felt about him ordering New Yorkers to snitch on each other for violating social-distancing rules — by flooding his new tip line with crank complaints including “dick pics” and people flipping the bird, The Post has learned.
Photos of extended middle fingers, the mayor dropping the Staten Island groundhog and news coverage of him going to the gym have all been texted to a special tip line that de Blasio announced Saturday, according to screenshots posted on Twitter.
One user sent the message “We will fight this tyrannical overreach!” to the service and got an automated message that in part said, “Hello, and thank you for texting NYC311.”
“F–k you!” replied @MorganLSchmidt1, along with a meme showing Adolph Hitler and the words “TO THOSE TURNING IN YOUR NEIGHBORS AND LOCAL BUSINESSES — YOU DID THE REICH THING.”
“Start flooding their reporting text numbers with this pics!” the tweet added.
Other profane messages included a photo of a bowl of gummy candies in the shape of male genitalia and a sign saying “EAT A BAG OF D–KS.”
It was not immediately clear whether any of the posters actually lived in New York City.
An NYPD source said that “dick pic” photos of real penises have also been texted to 311, and a caller phoned in a tip that de Blasio was seen performing oral sex on someone “in an alleyway behind a 7-11” early Sunday.
“He looked at me…and coofed in my direction,” the caller said, according to a photo of the 311 operator’s computer screen provided to The Post.
“Coof” is a newly coined term for coughing while infected with the coronavirus, according to the Urban Dictionary website....(snip)[/No Bobbitt]
 

Buncha Shagsters there.

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

[Loco 3752]

6 minutes ago, XYZ said:

I’m confused about this. Can American citizens fly to Canada or can they not?

[GreenspointTexas 9556]

https://www.foxnews.com/us/kentucky-record-spike-coronavirus-cases-lockdown-protests
 

i hate linking fox news but was sent this link by a friend. Darwinism

[dcar00 14023]

14 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I heard that as well but haven't heard any explanation, or most importantly, anything resembling a fucking plan.   The reality is that the curve has flattened in Dallas.  Period. We have plenty of hospital capacity.  Unless the hospital data to be released today (which they are several hours late updating, per usual) shows a completely unexpected increase over the weekend, hospitalizations peaked 2 weeks ago. I haven't heard or read anything about being significantly low on PPE or supplies either. 

So the only thing that may be better on May 15 vs. May 1 is testing.  And if that is what they are waiting to figure out, then just fucking say so.   Seriously, say we want to have better testing and contact tracing in place, we think we will have that by May 15th, here is our plan.  

Otherwise, it's intellectually dishonest to anyone that is actually paying attention.  The curve isn't going to become meaningfully flatter between now and then.  It pretty much is what it is.  I just think extending without simultaneously releasing your game plan is fucking stupid and will backfire.   Jenkins is blowing a lot of the goodwill he had early on IMO.  The reality is Dallas hasn't had the suffering other places have had (largely because of the orders) but you can't just keep extending it out without explaining to the public why it is necessary to make that decision now, on April 21st.  Don't think it will go over well in Dallas, we'll see.

people are seeing the NY/NJ are half the numbers and the other places aren't blowing way up like expected.  The NorthEast + Mich is still hot but not boiling.  the rest of the country is willing to take a chance with a slow open and a more educated populace about social distancing.  I think that is why they kept the schools closed.  everything they do is in packs/groups/large groups and they don't have the faculties "en masse" to understand certain situations.