Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[gmr548 16701]

Question: it appears we can social distance well enough to flatten the curve, and not slam hospitals so bad that they get overwhelmed. But over the next 18-24 months... like 70% of people are still going to get the 'rona, right? 

Likely so. Absent distancing being so effective that it straight up snuffs out the virus, or a vaccine, it has to go through enough of the population that it can't infect enough new hosts fast enough to keep spreading. I don't really know what that threshold is, probably depends on the degree and longevity of distancing.

Overall, the point of distancing measures is to keep the pace of the spread manageable for healthcare providers and avoid unnecessary death.

[F250 29201]

20 minutes ago, CleverNickname said:

Question: it appears we can social distance well enough to flatten the curve, and not slam hospitals so bad that they get overwhelmed. But over the next 18-24 months... like 70% of people are still going to get the 'rona, right? 

I don't know. The percentage is pretty low right now, might get worse this Winter. I think to get to 70% we would have to see some big ass waves of infection. What is crazy is I don't think 70% is even high enough for herd immunity to halt the virus.

Shit is going to be bad for a long ass time.

[dcar00 14974]

2 minutes ago, F250 said:

I don't know. The percentage is pretty low right now, might get worse this Winter. I think to get to 70% we would have to see some big ass waves of infection. What is crazy is I don't think 70% is even high enough for herd immunity to halt the virus.

Shit is going to be bad for a long ass time.

believe the definition for herd is around 66%.  my guess is close to 10% has this now.  we will likley get to around 30-40%.

[0xdeadbeef 1699]

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Undefeated? 

Two pet cats have tested positive for coronavirus in New York state, the first pets in the US to contract the infection, say officials.
The felines, which are based in two different parts of New York state, both had mild respiratory symptoms, but are expected to recover.
Scientists think it unlikely that a pet could transmit coronavirus to a person.
Previously, seven lions and tigers at the Bronx Zoo tested positive for the virus.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-52390769

 

 

The article doesn't say, why exactly, they think that pet with respiratory symptoms can't transmit it to humans?   This and every other article I just looked at falls back on the the "No Evidence" song and dance.  Per the CDC, "At this time, there is no evidence that companion animals, including pets, can spread COVID-19 or that they might be a source of infection in the United States."

There's no evidence ... right up until there is.

They know cats can infect other cats, and they know the Covid-19 virus doesn't instantly mutate in a cat, so it seems pretty reasonable to me that cats can probably shed the virus in respiratory droplets.  Why couldn't that infect humans?

 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13435]

21 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

They’re all loose if your small enough.

 

Wait, what I meant to say was, none of them are loose if you’re big enough.

You’re, dipshit.

[F250 29201]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

believe the definition for herd is around 66%.  my guess is close to 10% has this now.  we will likley get to around 30-40%.

I read a few articles that use 65% infection as the low and 90% as the high. I assume everyone is still using the fluctuating IFR to guesstimate when herd immunity would take effect. Shit, is pretty bad either way when you consider how bad its been and we still are nowhere close to those herd immunity numbers.

 

 

[MissingInAction 25558]

40 minutes ago, F250 said:

I don't know. The percentage is pretty low right now, might get worse this Winter. I think to get to 70% we would have to see some big ass waves of infection. What is crazy is I don't think 70% is even high enough for herd immunity to halt the virus.

Shit is going to be bad for a long ass time.

5 million eventual deaths in the US due to the stupidity and willful ignorance which overwhelms our country. 

Mark it down.

 

Also, call your vet concerning your pet giving you the Rona. Twitter/FB/ all social media is total horseshit. Worse than usual at this time.

Edited April 23, 2020 by MissingInAction

[atomheartbevo 90650]

10 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

For your morning livestock update. Fresh pork was up again but seems to be leveling off for bellies, still about 8 bucks below the spike high. Had a client tell me today that the pork integrator he feeds for got his buildings clear a couple weeks ago, and restocked, but they are now 15-20 loads backed up overall as they can only get so many into Fremont(Hormel), and Smithfield in Crete is swamped with Sioux Falls overrrun, and Seaboard in St. Joe is taking member owners first and only has a little spare capacity.

Beef values surged again but choice looks to be leveling off some and that is the bulk of your supply. Cow plants seem to be holding up better labor wise but are swamped with dairy and beef fulls which should help to hold ground beef down a bit overtime. Client with ready cattle in Kansas is backed up on three loads currently going to Dodge City  

It wouldn't take many changes to have made this into a Raydog post.

[Lobwedgephil 1146]

35 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

believe the definition for herd is around 66%.  my guess is close to 10% has this now.  we will likley get to around 30-40%.

How do you figure 10%? Even the recent antibody studies that most don't believe are saying 2-5% have it. 10% just seems way high. 

[Trey3216 15452]

1 hour ago, Hate said:

Get money?

You can be as good as the best of them, but as bad as the worst.   

[atomheartbevo 90650]

15 hours ago, Loco said:

On a side note, there is a large sub-culture of folks who build all kinds of underground or hillside bunkers on YouTube.  They can get really elaborate - multiple "hidden" entrances that can run a long distance from the bunker, etc.

And most of them are actually easy to spot - either they've got solar panels galore ("off the grid"), or they have air tubes coming up out of the ground, and for those pumping/filtering their air, you can hear the machinery going.   If anybody care about them, they'd be discovered quickly, and an insulated wire cutter for their solar panels and some duct tape around their air tubes, and they'd come up for air pretty fast.

If you're going to do it, do it right.  Use an actual former missile base.  Shitload of places you can hide within the base/silos/tunnels, ain't nobody getting in unless you let them, and plenty of infrastructure for living underground for long periods of time where you can actually jog around and do stuff, instead of staring at your little TV that you can only run for a few hours a day, playing the same damned Matrix DVDs.

 

 

 

 

[XYZ 2154]

1 hour ago, CleverNickname said:

Question: it appears we can social distance well enough to flatten the curve, and not slam hospitals so bad that they get overwhelmed. But over the next 18-24 months... like 70% of people are still going to get the 'rona, right? 

Yes.

[XYZ 2154]

22 minutes ago, Lobwedgephil said:

How do you figure 10%? Even the recent antibody studies that most don't believe are saying 2-5% have it. 10% just seems way high. 

Remember that 5% a week ago could mean 10% today.

[atomheartbevo 90650]

3 hours ago, EuroHorn said:

This should be cool. 
https://abc11.com/society/blue-angels-thunderbirds-to-perform-air-shows-honoring-health-care-workers/6123124/

On the one hand, awesome if they somehow make it to Austin - we've had to cancel two surprise trips to airshows that featured one or the other, and it would have been awesome for our son to have seen them.  We have plans for Wings Over Houston this fall, but it's the Canadian Snowbirds and not the Thunderbirds or Blue Angles (although the Snowbirds are plenty impressive)/

On the other hand, I didn't think they performed over crowded areas.  Granted, I've only been to about 10 or so performances of one or the other, and most of those were at Ellington or in Florida, but both areas, they seemed to be fairly careful about flying over the populated areas.

And it seems weird as hell, since, if they are just flying over a large city, most people are not going to see the entirety of their act.

[atomheartbevo 90650]

6 hours ago, Nicole44 said:

Well Chris Cuomo just dramatically came out of his basement to announce he is covid free. Now at least one of his kids has it. Hopefully his wife will handle the whole deal so he can get back to...calling those who ride bikes “some jackass, loser, fat-tire biker“

Have you ever met a fat-tire bike rider that wasn't a jackass loser?

[atomheartbevo 90650]

11 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

In hindsight, we definitely overbuilt in Houston. Could money have been better spent or not spent at all? I'm sure that money can always been spent in better ways after all of the facts are in.

At one point, Houston's hospitalization #s for suspected covid was outpacing confirmed covid patients, so better to have been ready and not needed it, etc.

[atomheartbevo 90650]

6 hours ago, AnTiM said:

Only thing I feel certain about is this:  that jerk who runs the website and organized the gathering at the Capitol to defy safeguards designed to protect the public should have his ass kicked until he can no longer walk.

His ex-wife went in dry on him (turns out his male supplements bought him a nice house on or near Lake Travis I believe), and it's looking like a bunch of folks that his site has pumped out fake stuff about are in line to go in dry on him as well.

Oh, and the FDA and the FTC are about to go in dry on him over selling snake oil corona cures.  Along with various states.

So you'll have to get in line.

[atomheartbevo 90650]

3 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

[UTPhil2006 3930]

6 hours ago, BBQ2Bayou said:

Old tee, cut off sleeve, put on head. 

Dennis Leary posts here?

[justhookit 4206]

So I’ve posted off and on in this thread about what my mom’s doctor in San Antonio has been doing. he’s been testing anyone showing covid symptoms  since the tests came available and doesn’t ask you to fly to Colorado to get one.

anyway now he is antibody testing ALL of his regular clients. Going in alphabetical order, my mom’s test is tomorrow morning. I don’t know which test he is using and I suspect it’s part of a study but he is seeing a much higher than expected positive result. Generally he emails updates on Fridays so maybe I’ll have some actual numbers soon. Hopefully the results are real and it’s not an issue with testing accuracy but I’m not holding my breath.

Edited April 23, 2020 by justhookit

[Radical Larry 28822]

Dennis Leary posts here?

He’s an asshole.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8984]

How do you figure 10%? Even the recent antibody studies that most don't believe are saying 2-5% have it. 10% just seems way high. 

This things been rampant well before we conducted our first official test. All it takes is One. ONE plane with an asymptomatic passenger to infect fellow passengers heads to the US last year. They do business in enclosed spaces with Americans. Americans catch it, ride to work on Public transportation and infect many people instantly. And they go on and do it to others.

 

 

 

And then we hit Christmas 2019 and we’re still a month away from THIS exact thread being created

[Tailgate 3078]

I really need to get to Indiana on Monday for a production run...but damn...I’m going to have just Skype with the plant manager and game plan this from Austin.

When will the circus end?

[Tailgate 3078]

6 hours ago, EuroHorn said:

This should be cool. 
 

https://abc11.com/society/blue-angels-thunderbirds-to-perform-air-shows-honoring-health-care-workers/6123124/

 

This will be awesome. My dad was Air Force and both these units are impressive. Nearly got knocked out as a kid walking around the runway when the planes were parked and smacked my head on one of the Blue Angel noses.

[Treefidy 1507]

16 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I think it’s probably societal placebo affect. I hate taking off shoes at the airport and that entire tsa drill but I’m in a small minority on that. I’ve never figured I’m normal and don’t think how most do so I just shake my head and do what I’m told because in my heart I’m a sheeple just like everyone else. 

<CSB>

dad was still a commercial pilot in 2001 nearing retirement.  Shortly after 9/11 at the airport, in uniform on his way to work, a young TSA agent was giving him grief.  Told him he could not bring his nail clippers and tweezers I believe.  Anyways, dad lost it, told him "look here kid, I flew helicopters in Vietnam for this country before you were born.  If I wanted to kill everybody on board I would just point the fucker at the ground and my nail clippers aren't doing a damn thing about it."  

Very soon after pilots were allowed to carry firearms if they chose (he did with a mad max job with rat shot) and that reignited his anger toward TSA experience.  

<CSB>

[Iceman 2978]

3 hours ago, Tailgate said:

I really need to get to Indiana on Monday for a production run...but damn...I’m going to have just Skype with the plant manager and game plan this from Austin.

When will the circus end?

or has it just begun?

[in Queensryche voice]

[Iceman 2978]

nm

Edited April 23, 2020 by Iceman

[Loco 3754]

Georgia...  not even once

 

[Murfdogg21 4563]

11 minutes ago, Loco said:

Georgia...  not even once

 

This sucks but if it wasn’t the policy, what would prevent most people from just quitting and sitting on the couch collecting a check?

[Loco 3754]

2 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

This sucks but if it wasn’t the policy, what would prevent most people from just quitting and sitting on the couch collecting a check?

A reasonable data driven state Health Policy?

This is exactly the thing that could make a, you know Pandemic, much worse.  Make a bunch of work a day people choose between social irresponsibility and eating.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

13 hours ago, Liquor and Poker said:

I wonder about that for nearly every poster on this site. 

Your not getting paid for this?

[Loco 3754]

Preach brother!

Spoiler

Also... Reasonable Max Headroom

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by Loco

[Treefidy 1507]

5 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

This things been rampant well before we conducted our first official test. All it takes is One. ONE plane with an asymptomatic passenger to infect fellow passengers heads to the US last year. They do business in enclosed spaces with Americans. Americans catch it, ride to work on Public transportation and infect many people instantly. And they go on and do it to others.

 

 

 

And then we hit Christmas 2019 and we’re still a month away from THIS exact thread being created

First reported case in US is still 1/21.  Now the first confirmed death has been moved up 3 weeks to 2/6

Early doubling rate was reported ~3 days, so from patient 0 it takes 30 days to reach 1,000.  If we had a constant RO=5 then the official numbers would work out from 1 on 1/21 to 900k today.  None of those are likely true, the RO has not been a constant 5 days (that's the average that works) 1/21 almost certainly was not the first case in US, and there are more than 900k who have been infected.  

An RO=4 would put us at around 10M.  Using RO=4 from 1/21-3/31 and RO=7 since would still have us over 2M.  I think it's reasonable to think we are somewhere between those.  

[Dahobbs 18324]

18 minutes ago, Treefidy said:

First reported case in US is still 1/21.  Now the first confirmed death has been moved up 3 weeks to 2/6

Early doubling rate was reported ~3 days, so from patient 0 it takes 30 days to reach 1,000.  If we had a constant RO=5 then the official numbers would work out from 1 on 1/21 to 900k today.  None of those are likely true, the RO has not been a constant 5 days (that's the average that works) 1/21 almost certainly was not the first case in US, and there are more than 900k who have been infected.  

An RO=4 would put us at around 10M.  Using RO=4 from 1/21-3/31 and RO=7 since would still have us over 2M.  I think it's reasonable to think we are somewhere between those.  

I think you're saying R0 but actually referring to doubling period. R0 is the number of people that each infected person infects. It affects the doubling period, but doesn't define it. 

[MonkeyDoughnut 10803]

29 minutes ago, Loco said:

Preach brother!

  Hide contents

Also... Reasonable Max Headroom

 

Absolutely and I bet we'll be able to by 2022, but what will we do in the meantime?

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

rut-RO....

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

1 minute ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Absolutely and I bet we'll be able to by 2022, but what will we do in the meantime?

I've worked in manufacturing all of my adult life. I've yet to see a company that could switch from producing soda to "tests" overnight. 

People who have a naive view of manufacturing make me surly.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10803]

3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I've worked in manufacturing all of my adult life. I've yet to see a company that could switch from producing soda to "tests" overnight. 

People who have a naive view of manufacturing make me surly.

Even if starting up new, if you've seen a bottling or canning line run you can appreciate the decades of engineering and design improvements that it took to reach the levels they are at now.

[Dahobbs 18324]

11 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I've worked in manufacturing all of my adult life. I've yet to see a company that could switch from producing soda to "tests" overnight. 

People who have a naive view of manufacturing make me surly.

He wasn't suggesting that we literally have soda companies switch to making tests. That would be idiotic. His point was economic: we should invest the same amount of resources on tests as we use to produce soda ($45-50 billion a year). 

Edited April 23, 2020 by Dahobbs

[freyguy 4368]

8 minutes ago, MonkeyDoughnut said:

Absolutely and I bet we'll be able to by 2022, but what will we do in the meantime?

[SydneyCarton 49505]

9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

He wasn't literally suggesting that we have soda companies switch to making tests. That would be idiotic. His point was economic: we should invest the same amount of resources we use to produce soda ($45-50 billion a year) on tests. 

Well one is a company that makes products for sale and profit, met by demand. The other would be something operated at a net loss by the government, because you can’t expect private industry to eat money for the public good. Additionally, in all likelihood, the need for testing at this level is very, very temporary. The demand for soda less so. 

it’s hardly an apples to apples scenario and is a dumb blanket statement. And I say that as someone who thinks we’ve woefully and short-sightedly outsourced too much production overseas and  who thinks the government  should be moving things like this back home. 

Now ask what happens when guys make blanket statement about tests but fail to take into account that no one can get some of the core ingredients for tests, like reagents, etc. Are soda companies making 350 million cans of soda a day if they can’t get their hands on much sugar and corn syrup and there’s a shortage of aluminum? 

Edited April 23, 2020 by SydneyCarton

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

He wasn't suggesting that we literally have soda companies switch to making tests. That would be idiotic. His point was economic: we should invest the same amount of resources on tests as we use to produce soda ($45-50 billion a year). 

Kinda missing the point. Just ramping up an assembly line isn't something you do over night.  "We" so you think a company needs to create tests for random viruses that we don't even know exist yet ?  I don't know about you, but when I start a company I wanna make a dollar and a cent form it....

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13435]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well one is a company that makes products for sale and profit, net by demand. The other would be something operated at a net loss by the government, because you can’t expect private industry to eat money for the public good. Additionally, in all likelihood, the need for testing at this level is very, very temporary. The demand for soda less so. 

it’s hardly an apples to apples scenario and is a dumb blanket statement. And I say that as someone who thinks we’ve woefully and short-sightedly outsourced too much production overseas and  who thinks the government  should be moving things like this back home. 

Now ask what happens when guys make blanket statement about tests but fail to take into account that no one can get some of the core ingredients for tests, like reagents, etc. Are soda companies making 350 million cans of soda a day I’d they can’t get their hands on much sugar and corn syrup and there’s a shortage of aluminum? 

This sense is not very common.

[SydneyCarton 49505]

2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Kinda missing the point. Just ramping up an assembly line isn't something you do over night.  "We" so you think a company needs to create tests for random viruses that we don't even know exist yet ?  I don't know about you, but when I start a company I wanna make a dollar and a cent form it....

It took us weeks to figure out how to do drive up testing and get results in 7-10 days. But yeah, flip that switch and make tests like soda pops!

[utee94 16089]

It's just such a silly comparison, but even if "we" could somehow magically manufacture 30 million tests per day, could "we" come anywhere close to processing that many?  

[Dahobbs 18324]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well one is a company that makes products for sale and profit, met by demand. The other would be something operated at a net loss by the government, because you can’t expect private industry to eat money for the public good. Additionally, in all likelihood, the need for testing at this level is very, very temporary. The demand for soda less so. 

it’s hardly an apples to apples scenario and is a dumb blanket statement. And I say that as someone who thinks we’ve woefully and short-sightedly outsourced too much production overseas and  who thinks the government  should be moving things like this back home. 

Now ask what happens when guys make blanket statement about tests but fail to take into account that no one can get some of the core ingredients for tests, like reagents, etc. Are soda companies making 350 million cans of soda a day I’d they can’t get their hands on much sugar and corn syrup and there’s a shortage of aluminum? 

I don't think he was suggesting that we should rely on the market for the $50 billion. 

2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Kinda missing the point. Just ramping up an assembly line isn't something you do over night.  "We" so you think a company needs to create tests for random viruses that we don't even know exist yet ?  I don't know about you, but when I start a company I wanna make a dollar and a cent form it....

No, that part I got. I assume it would still take time for Abbott or another entity in the pharmaceutical industry to ramp up testing. But, I'm pretty sure if we gave them $50 billion to do it, it could happen pretty fucking quickly (I mean fuck, that is more than a quarter of their entire market cap). 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

I don't think he was suggesting that we should rely on the market for the $50 billion. 

No, that part I got. I assume it would still take time for Abbott or another entity in the pharmaceutical industry to ramp up testing. But, I'm pretty sure if we gave them $50 billion to do it, it could happen pretty fucking quickly (I mean fuck, that is more than a quarter of their entire market cap). 

So just hand out $50b without any plan, just give it to them ?  And by plan I mean something that is workable and definitely feasible.  $50b Plans aren't created over night. The mans comments are typical of high IQ folks who live in a world of academia not the real world.

[Cheeseweasel 26439]

2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

It's just such a silly comparison, but even if "we" could somehow magically manufacture 30 million tests per day, could "we" come anywhere close to processing that many?  

[Loco 3754]

24 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I've worked in manufacturing all of my adult life. I've yet to see a company that could switch from producing soda to "tests" overnight. 

People who have a naive view of manufacturing make me surly.

tl/dr

"I'm no Nobel prize winning economist, but if it can't be done overnight it's not worth doing!"

[Brew 3049]

5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It took us weeks to figure out how to do drive up testing and get results in 7-10 days. But yeah, flip that switch and make tests like soda pops!

Our local hospital bought the equipment needed for same day results over a month ago. It wasn’t a very expensive piece of equipment in the grand scheme of things. A month later and they are still waiting to get the reagents required to run the test, so all local testing is still going through the state health department and taking 5+ days for results. They have been told multiple times they would have the reagent soon, but still nothing.