Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[ChiTownDoc 21,098]

9 minutes ago, bigup2dahorns said:

Sketchy info. Article here:


https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/23/data-on-gileads-remdesivir-released-by-accident-show-no-benefit-for-coronavirus-patients/

Oh, for sure.  The truth lies in the middle of the initial report that said 100% benefit on those patients vs this that says 'no benefit'.  

[Js1 85,095]

Just now, BabaYaga said:

Forget the outlet, and probably already posted, but CA antibody tests are 50X larger than anticipated.  We're seeing this in many other markets - giving the impression this has been here much longer than originally anticipated, is much less lethal than first thought, has a significant number of asymptomatic carriers, and hunkering everyone down is actually doing very little to stop the spread of a virus that was circulating unchecked for months and months.

It's anecdotal, but so many people I know and work with reported nasty symptoms around the Holidays that tested negative for the flu.  Subsequent antibody tests are going to be very, very interesting.  

National Jewish Health is doing testing for those who want it to see if they have the antibodies.

Considering it, because I really think I had it. 

[Anastasis 23,393]

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

It's anecdotal, but so many people I know and work with reported nasty symptoms around the Holidays that tested negative for the flu.  Subsequent antibody tests are going to be very, very interesting.  

I know lots of lots of people fitting that profile precisely, including people in my own house. 

[BabaYaga 15,208]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

LOL. The WHO "accidentally" front ran the release of data by publishing draft results on their website.

Nice job WHO dumbfucks. 

[Anastasis 23,393]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hopefully we never get fooled again. 

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hopefully we never get fooled again. 

YAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Eskimohorn 5,613]

SIAP.  Convenience sample of 3k people at grocery stores across state of NY reveal 14% of subjects had COVID antibodies.

56% more for herd immunity to begin to kick-in for public health purposes (you want 90% to eradicate, 70% is minimum). 60k more deaths in New York State assuming similar rate.

This is not promising.

[BabaYaga 15,208]

2 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I know lots of lots of people fitting that profile precisely, including people in my own house. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

Forget the outlet, and probably already posted, but CA antibody tests are 50X larger than anticipated.  We're seeing this in many other markets - giving the impression this has been here much longer than originally anticipated, is much less lethal than first thought, has a significant number of asymptomatic carriers, and hunkering everyone down is actually doing very little to stop the spread of a virus that was circulating unchecked for months and months.
It's anecdotal, but so many people I know and work with reported nasty symptoms around the Holidays that tested negative for the flu.  Subsequent antibody tests are going to be very, very interesting.  

Minnesota has had its largest test day, a whopping 2200 and largest case day, 220 in one day. No schools mid March, shelter in place since March 28th. This shit is so spread out by now, going back to finish the job and salvage the economy has to be the best only viable option

[atomheartbevo 89,406]

42 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Again, just stay the fuck home unless you are really needed. I for one am welcoming the hair gods of decades past. If it gets out of control going with the Screaming Eagle look of June 05, 1994. 

Buckle up boys and girls, we’re about to get all Michael Landon up in here

Edited April 23, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[South Austin 52,126]

6 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Hopefully we never get fooled again. 

 

[InkaUtexas 25,496]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Buckle boys and girls, we’re about to get all Michael Landon up in here

nah brah, going for the Spicoli look. 

[atomheartbevo 89,406]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

nah brah, going for the Spicoli look. 

Robin Williams in Jumanji, come June

 

[Eskimohorn 5,613]

Ways out of current sheltering and social distancing:

Human intervention:

>Test and Trace with gradually lightening rules based on zoning
>Vaccination
>Treatment

Divine intervention:

>Disease mutation
>Unknown disease vectors
>Unknown human resistance
>Unknown environmental vectors
>Unknown unknowns

Because Texas is bottom-five in testing, I think we’ll be relying on divine intervention to stop outbreaks from re-occurring as more people interact with each other.

[gmr548 16,491]

And Remdesivir flops on first real trial.  I called that about 200 pages ago.  No magic drug, people.  Period. 

Thanks for sharing. Unfortunately that's not a surprise. There were reports of doctors trying it here and there for months. It wasn't a secret. If it was going to be some breakthrough, the medical community would have really been buzzing by now.

Will treatment appearing over the summer/ fall remain a popular theory on surly?

[BrazilHorn 6,576]

10 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

Ways out of current sheltering and social distancing:

Human intervention:

>Test and Trace with gradually lightening rules based on zoning
>Vaccination
>Treatment

Divine intervention:

>Disease mutation
>Unknown disease vectors
>Unknown human resistance
>Unknown environmental vectors
>Unknown unknowns

Because Texas is bottom-five in testing, I think we’ll be relying on divine intervention to stop outbreaks from re-occurring as more people interact with each other.

At one point the axis of "deaths from CV19" vs "economic ruination" point will cross over and economics will win. Especially if the people dying continue to be people that are older, fatter or those who smoke/vape.

It will be a ethics debate for the ages.

Edited April 23, 2020 by BrazilHorn

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

43 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I never said it was impervious to an economic melt down. I said it's strong, as is real estate, and as long as they are things will get better faster.  Run along  now the CR cesspool is opened back up for the children's swim session..

ok, but be honest...going back and reading what you posted...how completely devoid of meaning was that statement? lulz

[gmr548 16,491]

At one point the axis of "deaths from CV19" vs "economic ruination" point will cross over and economics will win. Especially if the people dying continue to be people that are older, fatter or those who smoke/vape.
It will be a ethics debate for the ages.

RIP surly

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

Vaccine trials underway in UK


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52394485

[InkaUtexas 25,496]

Fuck The Who,  I mean the WHO.... 

 

Edited April 23, 2020 by InkaUtexas

[Royalfan5 2,348]

For your livestock update cattle slaughter rates stayed steady, off 1K from yesterday with Tyson temporarily stopping a plant in Washington for test, and work that'll restart in Dakota City on Monday. Beef prices hit new highs on the morning run, but leveled off a bit. If plants start coming back on Monday as advertised it should goose beef production pretty good.

Hog slaughter runs were up about 12K from yesterday, and we are at about 83% of last year's runs right now. Fresh pork worked higher but still below the spike highs which might hold if we can get back over 415K or so by the first part of the week. 

 

[SHOOTER12 8,788]

20 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

At one point the axis of "deaths from CV19" vs "economic ruination" point will cross over and economics will win. Especially if the people dying continue to be people that are older, fatter or those who smoke/vape.

It will be a ethics debate for the ages.

Nah, I saw on the news this morning that nicotine actually wards off the sharonavirus.

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

5 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Nah, I saw on the news this morning that nicotine actually wards off the sharonavirus.

Truth. Once the host dies, the virus stops.

[BabaYaga 15,208]

30 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

At one point the axis of "deaths from CV19" vs "economic ruination" point will cross over and economics will win. Especially if the people dying continue to be people that are older, fatter or those who smoke/vape.

It will be a ethics debate for the ages.

I hope obviously for a recovery of jobs and assets.  I also hope this is a wake up for all the jelly-bellies out there sucking down nonsense every day.  One of the primary "pre-existing conditions" impacting negatively survival rates is being a fat fuck. The stress put on your body from such a lifestyle makes you so susceptible.  

If not this round, the next will catch up with them....

Edited April 23, 2020 by BabaYaga

[NaTeWHO 850]

So, let's do some math.

NY state population 19,450,000
NY state antibodies 13.9%
NY state infected 2,703,550
NY state deaths 15,302
Mortality rate .57%

[Hate 20,103]

Can you elaborate on the criteria for making one a “fattie” as opposed to being “big boned” or “husky”?

[BrazilHorn 6,576]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

9 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

At one point the axis of "deaths from CV19" vs "economic ruination" point will cross over and economics will win. Especially if the people dying continue to be people that are older, fatter or those who smoke/vape.
It will be a ethics debate for the ages.

RIP surly

If you mean Surly collapses from the ethics debate, I don't disagree with you. It is going to be nuts.

[InkaUtexas 25,496]

Husky 

 

Fatty

[justhookit 4,177]

7 minutes ago, NaTeWHO said:

So, let's do some math.

NY state population 19,450,000
NY state antibodies 13.9%
NY state infected 2,703,550
NY state deaths 15,302
Mortality rate .57%

Percent positive by region:

 

Long Island: 16.7%

NYC: 21.2%

Westchester/Rockland: 11.7%

Rest of state: 3.6%

 

i don’t really see this as good news

[TexasGolf 4,856]

8 minutes ago, NaTeWHO said:

So, let's do some math.

NY state population 19,450,000
NY state antibodies 13.9%
NY state infected 2,703,550
NY state deaths 15,302
Mortality rate .57%

Stanford studies / antibody test in CA showing similar with lower mortality....less than flu some seasons. 

[po elvis 2,070]

1 minute ago, justhookit said:

Percent positive by region:

 

Long Island: 16.7%

NYC: 21.2%

Westchester/Rockland: 11.7%

Rest of state: 3.6%

 

i don’t really see this as good news

Are these random tests or is there a greater number of people who were interested in getting the test because they had felt under the weather last month and were interested in finding out if they had it?

[GreenspointTexas 9,559]

13 minutes ago, NaTeWHO said:

So, let's do some math.

NY state population 19,450,000
NY state antibodies 13.9%
NY state infected 2,703,550
NY state deaths 15,302
Mortality rate .57%

So exactly 1/10th of the mortality rate we see across the US right now... interesting

 

if true, then that might mean closer to 10 million people are infected in the US, instead of the close to 1 million being reported/known now

[UT_OB1 2,200]

14 minutes ago, NaTeWHO said:

So, let's do some math.

NY state population 19,450,000
NY state antibodies 13.9%
NY state infected 2,703,550
NY state deaths 15,302
Mortality rate .57%

Actually, if you apply the %s just for NYC and Long Island to their populations, you get to over 3 million infected.

[atomheartbevo 89,406]

15 minutes ago, Hate said:

Can you elaborate on the criteria for making one a “fattie” as opposed to being “big boned” or “husky”?

If you have to ask, you’re a fattie?

[ChiTownDoc 21,098]

15 minutes ago, Hate said:

Can you elaborate on the criteria for making one a “fattie” as opposed to being “big boned” or “husky”?

How big them titties?

[NaTeWHO 850]

3 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Percent positive by region:

 

Long Island: 16.7%

NYC: 21.2%

Westchester/Rockland: 11.7%

Rest of state: 3.6%

 

i don’t really see this as good news

It is good news. When calculating the mortality rate you divide deaths by infected. The smaller the denominator, the higher the mortality rate. If they currently have 257,216 confirmed cases with 15,302 deaths the mortality rate is 5.9%. That is significant and a very deadly illness. If the denominator becomes 13.9% of the state population (19,450,000) or 2,703,550 the mortality rate becomes .57%.

[mchookem 16,193]

31 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Nah, I saw on the news this morning that nicotine actually wards off the sharonavirus.

actually being studied, by the french of course

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/french-study-suggests-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus

 

[SHOOTER12 8,788]

1 minute ago, mchookem said:

actually being studied, by the french of course

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/french-study-suggests-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus

 

Oui oui senor...

That makes me trilingual for those of you watching at home.

[stone oak 639]

7 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

So exactly 1/10th of the mortality rate we see across the US right now... interesting

 

if true, then that might mean closer to 10 million people are infected in the US, instead of the close to 1 million being reported/known now

[atomheartbevo 89,406]

17 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

If you mean Surly collapses from the ethics debate, I don't disagree with you. It is going to be nuts.

More like Surly collapses under the weight of underlying conditions.

Just because we bang 10s and wash our asses with bidets powered by coconut water, doesn’t mean we are all within 5 pounds of our ideal weight.  

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

2 minutes ago, mchookem said:

actually being studied, by the french of course

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/22/french-study-suggests-smokers-at-lower-risk-of-getting-coronavirus

 

France: "Surrendering to the virus might be our only hope."

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

59 minutes ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

ok, but be honest...going back and reading what you posted...how completely devoid of meaning was that statement? lulz

None at all. I was making  a comment about the economic state of affairs at the time, how the housing industry and real estate were both solid and expanding.  And how I felt if they were able to weather the storm would help lead us out of the pandemic, and back near  the economy we've been experiencing the last 24-36 months. 

How was that meaningless ? lulz....??  And in reality, how Meaningful is anything being said here EVER ?  It's so much blather by a bunch of bored posters

Edited April 23, 2020 by Onboard 2.0

[dcar00 14,030]

28 minutes ago, NaTeWHO said:

So, let's do some math.

NY state population 19,450,000
NY state antibodies 13.9%
NY state infected 2,703,550
NY state deaths 15,302
Mortality rate .57%

if you do it for NYC(21.2%) its about .67%

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

So exactly 1/10th of the mortality rate we see across the US right now... interesting
 
if true, then that might mean closer to 10 million people are infected in the US, instead of the close to 1 million being reported/known now

Add a 0 to that 10

[Loco 3,752]

8 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Oui oui senor...

That makes me trilingual for those of you watching at home.

Take it easy Clouseau

[Dahobbs 17,437]

21 minutes ago, TexasGolf said:

Stanford studies / antibody test in CA showing similar with lower mortality....less than flu some seasons. 

 

19 minutes ago, po elvis said:

Are these random tests or is there a greater number of people who were interested in getting the test because they had felt under the weather last month and were interested in finding out if they had it?

Yeah, that was a problem with the Stanford study. They advertised for study participants rather than doing any sort of random sampling. It is really hard to ignore the potential self-selection bias (those that think they have or had the virus are more likely to want to participate) that creates. This New York study sounds like it has a better methodology, but we'll need to see more about it to be sure. 

[dcar00 14,030]

NY state is a hot zone so 14% isn't realistic.  lets say overall country is at 8% with 330M pop you get 26M

44000/26000000 you get .17%

[Anastasis 23,393]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

 

Yeah, that was a problem with the Stanford study. They advertised for study participants rather than doing any sort of random sampling. It is really hard to ignore the potential self-selection bias (those that think they have or had the virus are more likely to want to participate) that creates. This New York study sounds like it has a better methodology, but we'll need to see more about it to be sure. 

I only got to skim some stuff, so may have missed something, but it sounded like a convenience sample taken at grocery stores. 

[justhookit 4,177]

18 minutes ago, NaTeWHO said:

It is good news. When calculating the mortality rate you divide deaths by infected. The smaller the denominator, the higher the mortality rate. If they currently have 257,216 confirmed cases with 15,302 deaths the mortality rate is 5.9%. That is significant and a very deadly illness. If the denominator becomes 13.9% of the state population (19,450,000) or 2,703,550 the mortality rate becomes .57%.

I understand the mortality rate. I was referring to the “3.6 % of the rest of the state” part when you remove the 3 hotspots.

[Dahobbs 17,437]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

I only got to skim some stuff, so may have missed something, but it sounded like a convenience sample taken at grocery stores. 

Yeah, that has other issues, like potential under counting since those with active infection would presumably avoid the grocery stores. It also still potentially has a self-selection problem. But, still I think better than pure advertising and only counting those interested enough to respond.