Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Royalfan5 2348]

14 minutes ago, Parliament said:

 

 

Cattle are a bit easier because supply chain from calf to hamburger isn't as specific as hogs and chickens. They're euthanizing chickens in Minnesota already. Hogs will soon be getting it too.

 

Right, but it’s still going to lead to weirdness. I’ve got guys grassing steers until July that should be placed now, and given that March was the lowest placements ever, and April will probably break that, leverage is going to flip hard on the packers at some point. Best thing pork and chicken can do is put down the ready animals and stick in a hole, that way stuff doesn’t get too fucked on the backend. 

[gmr548 16481]

2 hours ago, wild_turkey said:

The goal of stay-at-home orders was to flatten the curve and prevent the hospitals from being overrun, which we have definitely achieved in Texas. It makes sense to slowly reopen businesses and keep a close watch on testing numbers and hospital capacity. If it goes well, then roll out phase 2. If it doesn't go well, then we pull back again.

The people arguing against this now seem to have shifted the goal of stay-at-home orders to something other than protecting the healthcare system. I'm not sure what they think a rational endpoint is. Eradication of COVID-19 or vaccine availability? Neither is likely to occur within a year.

No one is forcing a business to reopen or for people to go out to restaurants. People still have the option to stay home and lots of people will.

1.) We are not close to the kind of testing capacity, both for the virus and for antibodies, that the medical/public health community has called for to ensure a safe re-opening.

2.) This isn't a country of 300+ million individuals in bubbles. Not everyone has a choice. A bunch of service workers in restaurants and the like are going to be faced with going to work in unsafe environments, serving a crowd which is going to skew towards people that don't take much precaution, or losing their jobs and not being able to get unemployment. Businesses are in a tough spot too - they may not feel safe reopening, or may be looking at operating at huge losses at 25 percent capacity, but now their insurance won't cover them or their landlord isn't working with them on their lease because there is no government mandated shutdown. Someone who does decide to keep staying home can't do anything about the increased risk out and about in public.

No one believes the country should just stay home for two years, but we're moving forward while not being very well-equipped to prevent us from facing the exact same problem again down the line. You don't have to be a genius to know that would cause more long term damage, both to the economy and to public health. Alas, I am resigned to the fact that we're rolling the dice. This not a society known for its critical thinking.

[Royalfan5 2348]

15 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

I'd bid out on animals in lieu of wasting them - buy a whole pig, chickens, etc. and get a cheap freezer.  Not sure it's a viable market, but I'd love to see it happen.  I know lots of guys that would buy 1/2 or 1/4 cow and process it themselves.  

We’re short 40k kill on cattle a day, and 150k a day on hogs. A lot guts might like to do that but it’s not going to make any sort of difference 

[Royalfan5 2348]

19 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Aren’t they at like 2 deaths/>1000 cases between the worthington and smithfield breakouts? Not to say 2 is great news but in a data driven society we’re in, it gives us a good IFR. Granted I’m sure most employees are middle aged or younger.

Something like that. The biggest thing for this is guys can’t put forth the physical effort to keep up with pace while sick, and there’s not enough spare workers to fill the needed gap. The good news is the burned through plants will probably have herd immunity 

[RDCanecutter 26246]

14 minutes ago, utee94 said:

People have already been doing this.  But chest freezers were sold out as recently as a couple weeks ago.  Not sure if you'd be able to buy one right now.

 

Make the biggest bag of truck-stop jerky ever seen.

[Hate 20103]

Pretty sure St. Pats is in mid-March. Of course I could be mistaken.

The post you didn’t believe also included Mardi Gras which I’m pretty sure is in February. I may be mistaken of course.

[kevwun 15608]

40 minutes ago, LebongJames said:

Just saw some tweet that some of the restaurant’s do not think 25% capacity I s worth opening for. I’m sure it’s a fluid situation and many will change their minds over the next couple of days. We’ll see how this all shakes out

A closed restaurant isn't buying meat and produce and paying a staff to run the restaurant.  If they open and do poorly, their losses are even worse than they are now and they aren't getting business interruption insurance payouts to help offset it.

Edited April 28, 2020 by kevwun

[Pato del Muerto 52336]

31 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

I'd bid out on animals in lieu of wasting them - buy a whole pig, chickens, etc. and get a cheap freezer.  Not sure it's a viable market, but I'd love to see it happen.  I know lots of guys that would buy 1/2 or 1/4 cow and process it themselves.  

Bought a freezer just for this. But the ranch has the animals processed at a local facility, so that’s priced in. Have a 1-4 cow and 1/2 pig on order, to be delivered in a couple weeks. 
 

bonus is now I have room should I want to take an elk or mulie or even a moose. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[Parliament 14121]

16 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

Right, but it’s still going to lead to weirdness. I’ve got guys grassing steers until July that should be placed now, and given that March was the lowest placements ever, and April will probably break that, leverage is going to flip hard on the packers at some point. Best thing pork and chicken can do is put down the ready animals and stick in a hole, that way stuff doesn’t get too fucked on the backend. 

Oh I agree, and I hope you don't think I'm downplaying the seriousness of this. I'm saying hog and chicken farmers are fooked.  Hog guys maybe twice.  You gotta think they're backing down their feeder pig production, and that might lead to pig supply problems late this year.

[Js1 85085]

26 minutes ago, bigup2dahorns said:

 

Rape is back on the table for the fall! 

[Deej 76524]

15 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

 Have a 1/2 pig on order

"That's not how this works." - Vic Mackey

[Deej 76524]

27 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

The good news is the burned through plants will probably have herd immunity 

Pun intended?

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Seafood shop here in VA. is gonna be charging $4.99 a pound for fresh caught tuna steaks tomorrow. They have to get rid of it somehow because all the restaurants are closed.  I'm breaking out the vacuum sealer, and the ice chest for a run tomorrow.

[Fuck Tim Beck 3806]

38 minutes ago, bigup2dahorns said:

 

 

11 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Rape is back on the table for the fall! 

Virtual rape just isn't the same. 

[Trey3216 15325]

37 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Wouldn’t surprise me. Some of the places we have be curbsiding from seem to have the operation down to a pretty efficient process. Opening up the dining room with quarter capacity just seems like in many cases it could be a step backwards from a business perspective. 

I think it’ll almost be an extension of curbside.  Not a lot of people will go for the full dining experience, and not a lot of servers are going to come back to have 6-8 tables over a night.   You’ll have quite a few people come in and order takeout and have a few beers/drinks while waiting though.  

[po elvis 2070]

I read profit margin for a full service restaurant is like 5%. So on $20, there is profit of $1. If restaurants are capped at 25%, they can add $3 to every $20 worth of food. So a meal costing $20 would become $23. The price you have to pay if you want to eat out at a restaurant right now. Now the servers would be getting screwed because they wouldn't be making much off the extra $3.

is this right?

[Royalfan5 2348]

16 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Oh I agree, and I hope you don't think I'm downplaying the seriousness of this. I'm saying hog and chicken farmers are fooked.  Hog guys maybe twice.  You gotta think they're backing down their feeder pig production, and that might lead to pig supply problems late this year.

The only good thing for a lot of those guys is that they don’t own the pigs or chickens anymore. I’d be sweating bullets if I was in the Pipestone or Maschoff systems though. My Uncle that finally quit farrow to finish in 2018 has to feel pretty good right now especially since Crete is just down the road.(Ex-Farmland Plant that my Grandpa helped place there with all of the co-op stuff he did)

[Royalfan5 2348]

6 minutes ago, Deej said:

Pun intended?

Sure

[G650 14074]

15 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Seafood shop here in VA. is gonna be charging $4.99 a pound for fresh caught tuna steaks tomorrow. They have to get rid of it somehow because all the restaurants are closed.  I'm breaking out the vacuum sealer, and the ice chest for a run tomorrow.

Dude you want tuna I'll get you all you can eat for free.

[Lurch 5921]

I read profit margin for a full service restaurant is like 5%. So on $20, there is profit of $1. If restaurants are capped at 25%, they can add $3 to every $20 worth of food. So a meal costing $20 would become $23. The price you have to pay if you want to eat out at a restaurant right now. Now the servers would be getting screwed because they wouldn't be making much off the extra $3.
is this right?

Lol very NO

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

14 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

The only good thing for a lot of those guys is that they don’t own the pigs or chickens anymore. I’d be sweating bullets if I was in the Pipestone or Maschoff systems though. My Uncle that finally quit farrow to finish in 2018 has to feel pretty good right now especially since Crete is just down the road.(Ex-Farmland Plant that my Grandpa helped place there with all of the co-op stuff he did)

Just want to say I appreciate the continuous updates on the animal slaughter markets even if most don’t. Thanks for teaching me something I didn’t know. 

[po elvis 2070]

Just now, Lurch said:

 

Lol very NO

 

Ha yeah that was very stupid. Holy shit I'm drunk.

[Royalfan5 2348]

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Just want to say I appreciate the continuous updates on the animal slaughter markets even if most don’t. Thanks for teaching me something I didn’t know. 

It’s my one time to shine during this, and given the terrible takes I see on subject(especially on Texags, who should have somebody who knows better for fucks sake) I feel like the people here should know what’s going on. 

Edited April 28, 2020 by Royalfan5

[Incredulity 11541]

12 minutes ago, po elvis said:

I read profit margin for a full service restaurant is like 5%. So on $20, there is profit of $1. If restaurants are capped at 25%, they can add $3 to every $20 worth of food. So a meal costing $20 would become $23. The price you have to pay if you want to eat out at a restaurant right now. Now the servers would be getting screwed because they wouldn't be making much off the extra $3.

is this right?

No,  In a regardedly oversimplified example
 

precovid model

sell $100

food and labor costs $50

overhead/SGA $45

net $5

 

post covid

sell $25

food labor $12.5

overhead $ 45

loss $ 32.5

They need to more than double the price, at 1/4 the volume to make 5%

[GreenspointTexas 9559]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

1.) We are not close to the kind of testing capacity, both for the virus and for antibodies, that the medical/public health community has called for to ensure a safe re-opening.

2.) This isn't a country of 300+ million individuals in bubbles. Not everyone has a choice. A bunch of service workers in restaurants and the like are going to be faced with going to work in unsafe environments, serving a crowd which is going to skew towards people that don't take much precaution, or losing their jobs and not being able to get unemployment. Businesses are in a tough spot too - they may not feel safe reopening, or may be looking at operating at huge losses at 25 percent capacity, but now their insurance won't cover them or their landlord isn't working with them on their lease because there is no government mandated shutdown. Someone who does decide to keep staying home can't do anything about the increased risk out and about in public.

No one believes the country should just stay home for two years, but we're moving forward while not being very well-equipped to prevent us from facing the exact same problem again down the line. You don't have to be a genius to know that would cause more long term damage, both to the economy and to public health. Alas, I am resigned to the fact that we're rolling the dice. This not a society known for its critical thinking.

Correct, and this is what many people on here dont seem to get. We need to buy all the time we can to roll out as much testing and tracing as possible. 

 

However, seeing how people and the goverment have reacted over the past 2 months to this, we might as well just open everything up at this point and hope for a fast a fuck burn

[GreenspointTexas 9559]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

1.) We are not close to the kind of testing capacity, both for the virus and for antibodies, that the medical/public health community has called for to ensure a safe re-opening.

2.) This isn't a country of 300+ million individuals in bubbles. Not everyone has a choice. A bunch of service workers in restaurants and the like are going to be faced with going to work in unsafe environments, serving a crowd which is going to skew towards people that don't take much precaution, or losing their jobs and not being able to get unemployment. Businesses are in a tough spot too - they may not feel safe reopening, or may be looking at operating at huge losses at 25 percent capacity, but now their insurance won't cover them or their landlord isn't working with them on their lease because there is no government mandated shutdown. Someone who does decide to keep staying home can't do anything about the increased risk out and about in public.

No one believes the country should just stay home for two years, but we're moving forward while not being very well-equipped to prevent us from facing the exact same problem again down the line. You don't have to be a genius to know that would cause more long term damage, both to the economy and to public health. Alas, I am resigned to the fact that we're rolling the dice. This not a society known for its critical thinking.

DPPPPp

 

 

Edited April 28, 2020 by GreenspointTexas

[Wulaw Horn 18968]

3 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

No,  In a regardedly oversimplified example
 

precovid model

sell $100

food and labor costs $50

overhead/SGA $45

net $5

 

post covid

sell $25

food labor $12.5

overhead $ 45

loss $ 32.5

They need to more than double the price, at 1/4 the volume to make 5%

Maybe not exactly on the numbers, but more or less yeah. Any restaurant that’s not a delivery take out place in a normal world is operating for no reason other than good will/community service/boredom. 

[Lurch 5921]

No,  In a regardedly oversimplified example
 
precovid model
sell $100
food and labor costs $50
overhead/SGA $45
net $5
 
post covid
sell $25
food labor $12.5
overhead $ 45
loss $ 32.5
They need to more than double the price, at 1/4 the volume to make 5%

And small restaurants can’t easily cut staff 75%. If you have 1 or 2 cooks, for example.

And food costs are heavily dictated by volume. If you cut your purchases 75%, your item cost likely increases

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19092]

A closed restaurant isn't buying meat and produce and paying a staff to run the restaurant.  If they open and do poorly, their losses are even worse than they are now and they aren't getting business interruption insurance payouts to help offset it.

They probably are not going to get business interruption insurance proceeds, even if they have a policy.

 

[Trey3216 15325]

20 minutes ago, po elvis said:

Ha yeah that was very stupid. Holy shit I'm drunk.

Yeah, I wasn’t going to effort a response to that one.  Lol 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19092]

A closed restaurant isn't buying meat and produce and paying a staff to run the restaurant.  If they open and do poorly, their losses are even worse than they are now and they aren't getting business interruption insurance payouts to help offset it.

 

Double post. Wtf is up with Tapa?

 

[SHOOTER12 8787]

3 hours ago, CycleTex87 said:

Man, I was at HEB yesterday in Katy, and there was toilet paper, paper towels, Kleenex, etc., and even more than one brand.  Not full shelves mind you, but available.

Thank goodness, the motel is getting tired of me using their towels.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

38 minutes ago, G650 said:

Dude you want tuna I'll get you all you can eat for free.

Even betterer....  This is convenient though, only a 10 minute drive....

[Hate 20103]

Just want to say I appreciate the continuous updates on the animal slaughter markets even if most don’t. Thanks for teaching me something I didn’t know. 

Absolutely this. I had no idea how that market worked.

[SHOOTER12 8787]

4 hours ago, tbone_ said:

Fuck that. Full hippie here.

I'm with you brother...of course was before all this mess.

[SHOOTER12 8787]

3 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

2 monkeys later?

Can they use Hugo as one of the test monkeys?

[stork642 4498]

35 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Correct, and this is what many people on here dont seem to get. We need to buy all the time we can to roll out as much testing and tracing as possible. 

 

However, seeing how people and the goverment have reacted over the past 2 months to this, we might as well just open everything up at this point and hope for a fast a fuck burn

Ballgame?

[StruggleBus 3922]

50 minutes ago, G650 said:

Dude you want tuna I'll get you all you can eat for free.

You giving him a key to South Austin’s mom’s house?

[SHOOTER12 8787]

3 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

It's a % of food sales to liquor sales in many states.  There was a bar we hit in college a lot. $2 cover charge to get in. What they didn't tell you was the $2.00 got you 2 hot dogs. That was how they worked around the food to liquor requirement, allegedly.

Pretty savvy operators I'd say.

[Treefidy 1463]

6 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

That’s a shame. It just confirms what we already knew. We have stupid people in this country, but fortunately none of them will ever be in leadership positions, ever.

It doesn’t change the disgust we should feel toward China, which most smart people would differentiate from Asian Americans or even recent Asian immigrants. 

We have serious concerns that if we were to put all the dumb members of congress on one side of Guam, the island might tip over and capsize.  

[SHOOTER12 8787]

2 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Margins are already razor thin for restaurants.  They have to be able to make money on drinks at the very least.  

Raise price on every entree $2.50 and $1every drink.  Customers may grumble but will be happy that they are able to get them.  While not a solution, may not give enough cushion to ride out the tide a little longer.

( Just plug in numbers, but you get the idea)

[SHOOTER12 8787]

43 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

You giving him a key to South Austin’s mom’s house?

Damned sure not loaning him my key...

[smoky 837]

No,  In a regardedly oversimplified example
 
precovid model
sell $100
food and labor costs $50
overhead/SGA $45
net $5
 
post covid
sell $25
food labor $12.5
overhead $ 45
loss $ 32.5
They need to more than double the price, at 1/4 the volume to make 5%

Wouldn't the shelter in place model be something like this:

Sell $0
Food labor $0
Overhead $45

Loss $45

[aggie08 21414]

3 hours ago, Lurch said:

 

 

When someone states the death count is being overstated...

 

 

 

 

 

Unpossible!

[WBT 20411]

34 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

Raise price on every entree $2.50 and $1every drink.  Customers may grumble but will be happy that they are able to get them.  While not a solution, may not give enough cushion to ride out the tide a little longer.

( Just plug in numbers, but you get the idea)

And get on the news for price gouging?

Of course with 25% supply they should be able to raise prices.  Demand will also be down of course but not as much I'd guess.  Of course in about 2 weeks we're supposed to go to 50% capacity and you'd have to find a new equilibrium again.

[Incredulity 11541]

22 minutes ago, smoky said:

 

 

Wouldn't the shelter in place model be something like this:

Sell $0
Food labor $0
Overhead $45

Loss $45

 

Whats your point?

[Tex Long 4342]

1 hour ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

 

Double post. Wtf is up with Tapa?

 

The only times I've noticed doubling have been when - after waiting several seconds for a "submit" button to work - I've gotten impatient and hit it again - prolly slow server, plus software gives no feedback that your post is being processed. That's on Win and Linux browsers, though, so not sure for phone/phablet tapamen. Try it and see, I'd be interested to know...

[Wally Fairway 5517]

I've lost track of what's in this thread, and what isn't
But here is an article on a group of top men working on solving the COVID problem, TOP MEN

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-group-of-scientists-and-billionaires-pushing-trump-on-a-covid-19-plan-11587998993?mod=hp_lead_pos6

Spoiler

A dozen of America’s top scientists and a collection of billionaires and industry titans say they have the answer to the coronavirus pandemic, and they found a backdoor to deliver their plan to the White House.

The eclectic group is led by a 33-year-old physician-turned-venture capitalist, Tom Cahill, who lives far from the public eye in a one-bedroom rental near Boston’s Fenway Park. He owns just one suit, but he has enough lofty connections to influence government decisions in the war against Covid-19.

These scientists and their backers describe their work as a lockdown-era Manhattan Project, a nod to the World War II group of scientists who helped develop the atomic bomb. This time around, the scientists are marshaling brains and money to distill unorthodox ideas gleaned from around the globe.

They call themselves Scientists to Stop Covid-19, and they include chemical biologists, an immunobiologist, a neurobiologist, a chronobiologist, an oncologist, a gastroenterologist, an epidemiologist and a nuclear scientist. Of the scientists at the center of the project, biologist Michael Rosbash, a 2017 Nobel Prize winner, said, “There’s no question that I’m the least qualified.”

 

This group, whose work hasn’t been previously reported, has acted as the go-between for pharmaceutical companies looking for a reputable link to Trump administration decision makers. They are working remotely as an ad hoc review board for the flood of research on the coronavirus, weeding out flawed studies before they reach policy makers.

VIEW DOCUMENT

A copy of the 17-page report by the Scientists to Stop COVID-19.

The group has compiled a confidential 17-page report that calls for a number of unorthodox methods against the virus. One big idea is treating patients with powerful drugs previously used against Ebola, with far heftier dosages than have been tried in the past.

The Food and Drug Administration and the Department of Veterans Affairs have already implemented specific recommendations, such as slashing manufacturing regulations and requirements for specific coronavirus drugs.

 

Nick Ayers, a longtime aide to Vice President Mike Pence.

PHOTO: JONATHAN ERNST/REUTERS

National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins told people this month that he agreed with most of the recommendations in the report, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal and people familiar with the matter. The report was delivered to cabinet members and Vice President Mike Pence, head of the administration’s coronavirus task force.

Dr. Cahill’s primary asset is a young lifetime of connections through his investment firm. They include such billionaires as Peter Thiel, Jim Palotta and Michael Milken—financiers who afforded him the legitimacy to reach officials in the middle of the crisis. Dr. Cahill and his group have frequently advised Nick Ayers, Mr. Pence’s longtime aide, and agency heads through phone calls over the past month.

No one involved with the group stands to gain financially. They say they are motivated by the chance to add their own connections and levelheaded science to a coronavirus battle effort that has, on both state and federal levels, been strained.

“We may fail,” said Stuart Schreiber, a Harvard University chemist and a member of the group. “But if it succeeds, it could change the world.”

Steve Pagliuca, co-owner of the Boston Celtics and the co-chairman of Bain Capital—as well as one of Dr. Cahill’s investors—helped copy edit drafts of their report, and he passed a version to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive David Solomon. Mr. Solomon got it to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

 

Vice President Mike Pence at the lectern during a news briefing with members of the coronavirus task force. Behind Mr. Pence, from left, Robert Redfield, Anthony Fauci, Deborah Birx, Seema Verma, Alex Azar, and Stephen Hahn.

PHOTO: MICHAEL REYNOLDS/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCK

The group’s members say they are aware that many of their ideas may not be implemented, and could be ignored altogether by the Trump administration.

This account is based on interviews with scientists, businesspeople, government officials, as well as a review of related documents.

Break out

Only two years ago, Dr. Cahill was studying for his M.D. and PhD. at Duke University, conducting research on rare genetic diseases and wearing $20 Costco slacks. He assumed he would continue the work after graduation.

Instead, he reconnected with a friend who introduced him to a job at his father’s company, the blue-chip investment firm the Raptor Group.

Dr. Cahill got hooked on investing, particularly in life sciences. He reasoned he could make a bigger impact by identifying promising scientists and helping them troubleshoot problems—both scientific and financial—than doing research himself.

After a stint at Raptor, he formed his own fund, Newpath Partners, with $125 million from a small group of wealthy investors, including Silicon Valley stalwart Mr. Thiel and private-equity founders like Mr. Pagliuca. They were attracted to his blunt approach, as well as his interest in tackling intractable problems.

In early March, as the Covid-19 death toll mounted, Dr. Cahill was intrigued and a little depressed with the state of research on the virus. “Science and medicine were the furthest things removed from everything happening,” he said.

 

President Trump at an April 13 news briefing. Behind the president, from left, Deborah Birx, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Vice President Mike Pence.

PHOTO: YURI GRIPAS/CNP/ZUMA PRESS

His investors peppered him with questions about the virus, and he organized a conference call to share some against-the-grain ideas on how to accelerate drug development and the like. He expected about 20 people.

When Dr. Cahill tried to dial in the meeting, he was rejected because the call had reached capacity. Then his cellphone buzzed from a New York number. It was National Basketball Association Commissioner Adam Silver. He, too, wanted the meeting’s access code. Dr. Cahill later gave him a personal briefing.

Newpath’s deep-pocketed investor base had spread word of the call, and hundreds of people were on the line, most of whom he had never met, including Mr. Milken.

When he finally got on the call, Dr. Cahill took a deep breath and said he had been working with friends to whittle down potential Covid-19 treatments to the most promising. He said he largely dropped his investing work to focus on a hunt for a cure.

After an hour, he hung up and found his email inbox full of ideas and offers to help, including from Mr. Milken’s team. “For the 50 years I’ve been involved in medical research I have never seen collaboration as we have today,” Mr. Milken said.

 

Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, at a hearing in March.

PHOTO: TOM WILLIAMS/CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY/ZUMA PRESS

Dr. Cahill received a handful of notes from advisers to the vice president. They also had been on the call.

The scientist-investor had gained a platform. All he needed was a plan.

Tracing contacts

One of Dr. Cahill’s first calls was to Mr. Schreiber, a founder of several private companies.

Mr. Schreiber looped in a longtime friend, Edward Scolnick, former head of research and development at pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co., where he helped develop 28 new drugs and vaccines. Dr. Scolnick was blunt: A vaccine would take at least 18 months to hit the market under normal circumstances, he told Mr. Schreiber, “if you’re damn lucky.”

Mr. Schreiber responded, “What about six months?”

The team drew up a list of roughly two dozen companies that could benefit from their recommendations and pledged to sell any shares in them immediately. One early member said he couldn’t and was kicked out.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

What is your assessment of the group’s Covid-19 plan?Join the conversation below.

Much of the early work involved divvying up hundreds of scientific papers on the crisis from around the world. They separated promising ideas from dubious ones. Each member blazed through as many as 20 papers a day, around 10 times the pace they would in their day jobs. They gathered to debate via videoconference, text messages—“like a bunch of teenagers,” Mr. Rosbash said—and phone calls.

Personal hygiene went by the wayside. Michael Lin, a Stanford University neurobiologist, began disabling the camera on his phone to protect his vanity. “A couple of days, I’ve had seven or eight Zoom meetings, which will itself I’m sure cause some kind of disease,” joked David Liu, a Harvard University chemical biologist.

Debates haven’t always been purely science. The group discussed, for instance, whether to suggest that public-health authorities rename the virus “SARS-2,” after the 2003 China animal virus. To them, the name sounded scarier and might get more people to wear face masks. They dropped it.

The team pledged to try to block out politics—not an easy task in the noise and fury of a presidential election year.

Hydroxychloroquine, a malaria drug promoted by the president, was dismissed after the group’s resident expert, Ben Cravatt of Scripps Research in La Jolla, Calif., determined it was a long shot at best. The drug received only a passing mention in the group’s final report.

 

Hydroxychloroquine pills.

PHOTO: JOHN LOCHER/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The group also disparaged the idea of using antibody testing to allow people back to work if their results showed they had recovered from the virus. Mr. Cravatt, a chemical biologist, declared it “the worst idea I’ve ever heard.” He said that prior exposure may not prevent people from giving the virus to others, and that overemphasizing antibody testing might tempt some people to intentionally infect themselves to later obtain a clean bill of health.

The group’s initial three phases of recommendations, contained in its report, center on leveraging the scale of the federal government. For instance, buy medicines not yet proven effective as a way to encourage manufacturers to ramp up production without worrying about losing money if the drugs fail. Another is to slash the time required for a clinical review of new drugs to a week from nine months or a year.

The group next needed to get their recommendations to the right people in the Trump administration. For that, Dr. Cahill tapped another well-placed billionaire.

An introduction

Brian Sheth, co-founder of private-equity firm Vista Equity Partners, and a Democrat, had been watching the effort gather steam from his home in Austin, Texas. He was an early investor in Dr. Cahill’s fund and had been on the first call. His expertise was technology, though, not immunology.

He had become friendly with Thomas Hicks Jr., the Dallas businessman and co-chairman of the Republican National Committee. Mr. Sheth introduced Mr. Hicks to Dr. Cahill’s group.

 

Brian Sheth, co-founder and president of Vista Equity Partners, last year in Beverly Hills, Calif.

PHOTO: PATRICK T. FALLON/BLOOMBERG NEWS

The connection cinched ties between a group of mostly liberal scientists from left-leaning institutions with a Republican stalwart who hunts birds with Donald Trump Jr.

In his first chat with the group, Mr. Hicks said, “I’m not a scientist. Make it clear enough for me, and then tell me where the red tape is.”

A major concern of the scientists was the FDA. The scientists had in their research identified monoclonal antibody drugs that latch onto virus cells as the most promising treatment. But to make the medicine in sufficient quantities, one drugmaker, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc., would have to shift some of its existing manufacturing to Ireland. FDA rules required a monthslong wait for approval.

Mr. Scolnick, who had tussled with bureaucracy during the AIDS epidemic, tried reaching the FDA. The call ended poorly after the bureaucrats told the group they already had the pandemic under control. In a group call afterward, one of the scientists said, of the FDA: “They’re the problem here.”

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Dr. Cahill got in touch with Mr. Ayers. Once the group briefed the vice president’s aide on the bottleneck, Mr. Ayers said he knew who to call. That evening, March 27, Regeneron received a call from the FDA. They had permission, starting immediately, to shift production to Dublin.

“That was proof positive that what we were doing was starting to work,” Mr. Rosbash said.

The group also made inroads with the VA, the largest health care system in the U.S. The scientists pushed the division’s medical staff to allow veterans with Covid-19 to join existing studies in such areas as prostate cancer, to see if already-approved drugs might be effective against the virus. They spoke to the VA’s chief medical officer and secretary about the proposal and learned the initiative was being fast-tracked.

Mr. Pagliuca spoke to Charles Baker, the Republican governor of Massachusetts, on the phone about the report. The governor, Mr. Pagliuca said, planned to adopt elements of the plan.

 

Steve Pagliuca, co-chairman of Bain Capital.

PHOTO: SIMON DAWSON/BLOOMBERG NEWS

With much of their scientific proposals under advisement, or already in the process, the group has an eye on the post-Covid-19 world. Mr. Pagliuca pushed the scientists to add a fourth phase to the plan—reopening America.

MORE ON CORONAVIRUS

 

• Trump Administration Has Enough Tests for 2% of Each State’s Population
• Drug Study Halted Early for Certain Patients After No Benefit Seen
• Positive Test Results Can Linger, Prevent Plasma Donation

The ideas include development of a saliva test, and scheduling tests at the end of the workday so results are available by morning. They also have suggested a nationwide smartphone app that requires residents to confirm each day that they don’t have any of 14 symptoms of a cold or fever.

Group members have continued their discussions with administration officials in recent days, hoping their confidential plan turns to action.

“We need the entire nation—government, business and science—to unite to defeat this,” Mr. Pagliuca said.

Corrections & Amplifications
An earlier version of this article incorrectly attributed a quote, “I’m sure cause some kind of disease,” to Michael Lin. It was said by David Liu. (April 27, 2020)

[Wally Fairway 5517]

I've lost track of what's in this thread, and what isn't
But here is an article on a group of top men working on solving the COVID problem, TOP MEN

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-secret-group-of-scientists-and-billionaires-pushing-trump-on-a-covid-19-plan-11587998993?mod=hp_lead_pos6

Spoiler

A dozen of America’s top scientists and a collection of billionaires and industry titans say they have the answer to the coronavirus pandemic, and they found a backdoor to deliver their plan to the White House.

The eclectic group is led by a 33-year-old physician-turned-venture capitalist, Tom Cahill, who lives far from the public eye in a one-bedroom rental near Boston’s Fenway Park. He owns just one suit, but he has enough lofty connections to influence government decisions in the war against Covid-19.

These scientists and their backers describe their work as a lockdown-era Manhattan Project, a nod to the World War II group of scientists who helped develop the atomic bomb. This time around, the scientists are marshaling brains and money to distill unorthodox ideas gleaned from around the globe.

They call themselves Scientists to Stop Covid-19, and they include chemical biologists, an immunobiologist, a neurobiologist, a chronobiologist, an oncologist, a gastroenterologist, an epidemiologist and a nuclear scientist. Of the scientists at the center of the project, biologist Michael Rosbash, a 2017 Nobel Prize winner, said, “There’s no question that I’m the least qualified.”

 

This group, whose work hasn’t been previously reported, has acted as the go-between for pharmaceutical companies looking for a reputable link to Trump administration decision makers. They are working remotely as an ad hoc review board for the flood of research on the coronavirus, weeding out flawed studies before they reach policy makers.

VIEW DOCUMENT

A copy of the 17-page report by the Scientists to Stop COVID-19.

The group has compiled a confidential 17-page report that calls for a number of unorthodox methods against the virus. One big idea is treating patients with powerful drugs previously used against Ebola, with far heftier dosages than have been tried in the past.

The Food and Drug Administration and the Department of Veterans Affairs have already implemented specific recommendations, such as slashing manufacturing regulations and requirements for specific coronavirus drugs.

 

Nick Ayers, a longtime aide to Vice President Mike Pence.

PHOTO: JONATHAN ERNST/REUTERS

National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins told people this month that he agreed with most of the recommendations in the report, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal and people familiar with the matter. The report was delivered to cabinet members and Vice President Mike Pence, head of the administration’s coronavirus task force.

Dr. Cahill’s primary asset is a young lifetime of connections through his investment firm. They include such billionaires as Peter Thiel, Jim Palotta and Michael Milken—financiers who afforded him the legitimacy to reach officials in the middle of the crisis. Dr. Cahill and his group have frequently advised Nick Ayers, Mr. Pence’s longtime aide, and agency heads through phone calls over the past month.

No one involved with the group stands to gain financially. They say they are motivated by the chance to add their own connections and levelheaded science to a coronavirus battle effort that has, on both state and federal levels, been strained.

“We may fail,” said Stuart Schreiber, a Harvard University chemist and a member of the group. “But if it succeeds, it could change the world.”

Steve Pagliuca, co-owner of the Boston Celtics and the co-chairman of Bain Capital—as well as one of Dr. Cahill’s investors—helped copy edit drafts of their report, and he passed a version to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive David Solomon. Mr. Solomon got it to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

 

Vice President Mike Pence at the lectern during a news briefing with members of the coronavirus task force. Behind Mr. Pence, from left, Robert Redfield, Anthony Fauci, Deborah Birx, Seema Verma, Alex Azar, and Stephen Hahn.

PHOTO: MICHAEL REYNOLDS/EPA/SHUTTERSTOCK

The group’s members say they are aware that many of their ideas may not be implemented, and could be ignored altogether by the Trump administration.

This account is based on interviews with scientists, businesspeople, government officials, as well as a review of related documents.

Break out

Only two years ago, Dr. Cahill was studying for his M.D. and PhD. at Duke University, conducting research on rare genetic diseases and wearing $20 Costco slacks. He assumed he would continue the work after graduation.

Instead, he reconnected with a friend who introduced him to a job at his father’s company, the blue-chip investment firm the Raptor Group.

Dr. Cahill got hooked on investing, particularly in life sciences. He reasoned he could make a bigger impact by identifying promising scientists and helping them troubleshoot problems—both scientific and financial—than doing research himself.

After a stint at Raptor, he formed his own fund, Newpath Partners, with $125 million from a small group of wealthy investors, including Silicon Valley stalwart Mr. Thiel and private-equity founders like Mr. Pagliuca. They were attracted to his blunt approach, as well as his interest in tackling intractable problems.

In early March, as the Covid-19 death toll mounted, Dr. Cahill was intrigued and a little depressed with the state of research on the virus. “Science and medicine were the furthest things removed from everything happening,” he said.

 

President Trump at an April 13 news briefing. Behind the president, from left, Deborah Birx, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Vice President Mike Pence.

PHOTO: YURI GRIPAS/CNP/ZUMA PRESS

His investors peppered him with questions about the virus, and he organized a conference call to share some against-the-grain ideas on how to accelerate drug development and the like. He expected about 20 people.

When Dr. Cahill tried to dial in the meeting, he was rejected because the call had reached capacity. Then his cellphone buzzed from a New York number. It was National Basketball Association Commissioner Adam Silver. He, too, wanted the meeting’s access code. Dr. Cahill later gave him a personal briefing.

Newpath’s deep-pocketed investor base had spread word of the call, and hundreds of people were on the line, most of whom he had never met, including Mr. Milken.

When he finally got on the call, Dr. Cahill took a deep breath and said he had been working with friends to whittle down potential Covid-19 treatments to the most promising. He said he largely dropped his investing work to focus on a hunt for a cure.

After an hour, he hung up and found his email inbox full of ideas and offers to help, including from Mr. Milken’s team. “For the 50 years I’ve been involved in medical research I have never seen collaboration as we have today,” Mr. Milken said.

 

Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, at a hearing in March.

PHOTO: TOM WILLIAMS/CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY/ZUMA PRESS

Dr. Cahill received a handful of notes from advisers to the vice president. They also had been on the call.

The scientist-investor had gained a platform. All he needed was a plan.

Tracing contacts

One of Dr. Cahill’s first calls was to Mr. Schreiber, a founder of several private companies.

Mr. Schreiber looped in a longtime friend, Edward Scolnick, former head of research and development at pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co., where he helped develop 28 new drugs and vaccines. Dr. Scolnick was blunt: A vaccine would take at least 18 months to hit the market under normal circumstances, he told Mr. Schreiber, “if you’re damn lucky.”

Mr. Schreiber responded, “What about six months?”

The team drew up a list of roughly two dozen companies that could benefit from their recommendations and pledged to sell any shares in them immediately. One early member said he couldn’t and was kicked out.

SHARE YOUR THOUGHTS

What is your assessment of the group’s Covid-19 plan?Join the conversation below.

Much of the early work involved divvying up hundreds of scientific papers on the crisis from around the world. They separated promising ideas from dubious ones. Each member blazed through as many as 20 papers a day, around 10 times the pace they would in their day jobs. They gathered to debate via videoconference, text messages—“like a bunch of teenagers,” Mr. Rosbash said—and phone calls.

Personal hygiene went by the wayside. Michael Lin, a Stanford University neurobiologist, began disabling the camera on his phone to protect his vanity. “A couple of days, I’ve had seven or eight Zoom meetings, which will itself I’m sure cause some kind of disease,” joked David Liu, a Harvard University chemical biologist.

Debates haven’t always been purely science. The group discussed, for instance, whether to suggest that public-health authorities rename the virus “SARS-2,” after the 2003 China animal virus. To them, the name sounded scarier and might get more people to wear face masks. They dropped it.

The team pledged to try to block out politics—not an easy task in the noise and fury of a presidential election year.

Hydroxychloroquine, a malaria drug promoted by the president, was dismissed after the group’s resident expert, Ben Cravatt of Scripps Research in La Jolla, Calif., determined it was a long shot at best. The drug received only a passing mention in the group’s final report.

 

Hydroxychloroquine pills.

PHOTO: JOHN LOCHER/ASSOCIATED PRESS

The group also disparaged the idea of using antibody testing to allow people back to work if their results showed they had recovered from the virus. Mr. Cravatt, a chemical biologist, declared it “the worst idea I’ve ever heard.” He said that prior exposure may not prevent people from giving the virus to others, and that overemphasizing antibody testing might tempt some people to intentionally infect themselves to later obtain a clean bill of health.

The group’s initial three phases of recommendations, contained in its report, center on leveraging the scale of the federal government. For instance, buy medicines not yet proven effective as a way to encourage manufacturers to ramp up production without worrying about losing money if the drugs fail. Another is to slash the time required for a clinical review of new drugs to a week from nine months or a year.

The group next needed to get their recommendations to the right people in the Trump administration. For that, Dr. Cahill tapped another well-placed billionaire.

An introduction

Brian Sheth, co-founder of private-equity firm Vista Equity Partners, and a Democrat, had been watching the effort gather steam from his home in Austin, Texas. He was an early investor in Dr. Cahill’s fund and had been on the first call. His expertise was technology, though, not immunology.

He had become friendly with Thomas Hicks Jr., the Dallas businessman and co-chairman of the Republican National Committee. Mr. Sheth introduced Mr. Hicks to Dr. Cahill’s group.

 

Brian Sheth, co-founder and president of Vista Equity Partners, last year in Beverly Hills, Calif.

PHOTO: PATRICK T. FALLON/BLOOMBERG NEWS

The connection cinched ties between a group of mostly liberal scientists from left-leaning institutions with a Republican stalwart who hunts birds with Donald Trump Jr.

In his first chat with the group, Mr. Hicks said, “I’m not a scientist. Make it clear enough for me, and then tell me where the red tape is.”

A major concern of the scientists was the FDA. The scientists had in their research identified monoclonal antibody drugs that latch onto virus cells as the most promising treatment. But to make the medicine in sufficient quantities, one drugmaker, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc., would have to shift some of its existing manufacturing to Ireland. FDA rules required a monthslong wait for approval.

Mr. Scolnick, who had tussled with bureaucracy during the AIDS epidemic, tried reaching the FDA. The call ended poorly after the bureaucrats told the group they already had the pandemic under control. In a group call afterward, one of the scientists said, of the FDA: “They’re the problem here.”

Related Video

Why Blood From Coronavirus Survivors Could Be a Lifeline for the Sick

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

 

UP NEXT

 

 

 

 

 

0:00 / 6:11

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why Blood From Coronavirus Survivors Could Be a Lifeline for the Sick

A growing number of hospitals are investigating antibody testing and blood plasma therapy as a way to combat the new coronavirus in sick patients. WSJ’s Daniela Hernandez explains. Photo illustration: Laura Kammermann

Dr. Cahill got in touch with Mr. Ayers. Once the group briefed the vice president’s aide on the bottleneck, Mr. Ayers said he knew who to call. That evening, March 27, Regeneron received a call from the FDA. They had permission, starting immediately, to shift production to Dublin.

“That was proof positive that what we were doing was starting to work,” Mr. Rosbash said.

The group also made inroads with the VA, the largest health care system in the U.S. The scientists pushed the division’s medical staff to allow veterans with Covid-19 to join existing studies in such areas as prostate cancer, to see if already-approved drugs might be effective against the virus. They spoke to the VA’s chief medical officer and secretary about the proposal and learned the initiative was being fast-tracked.

Mr. Pagliuca spoke to Charles Baker, the Republican governor of Massachusetts, on the phone about the report. The governor, Mr. Pagliuca said, planned to adopt elements of the plan.

 

Steve Pagliuca, co-chairman of Bain Capital.

PHOTO: SIMON DAWSON/BLOOMBERG NEWS

With much of their scientific proposals under advisement, or already in the process, the group has an eye on the post-Covid-19 world. Mr. Pagliuca pushed the scientists to add a fourth phase to the plan—reopening America.

MORE ON CORONAVIRUS

 

• Trump Administration Has Enough Tests for 2% of Each State’s Population
• Drug Study Halted Early for Certain Patients After No Benefit Seen
• Positive Test Results Can Linger, Prevent Plasma Donation

The ideas include development of a saliva test, and scheduling tests at the end of the workday so results are available by morning. They also have suggested a nationwide smartphone app that requires residents to confirm each day that they don’t have any of 14 symptoms of a cold or fever.

Group members have continued their discussions with administration officials in recent days, hoping their confidential plan turns to action.

“We need the entire nation—government, business and science—to unite to defeat this,” Mr. Pagliuca said.

Corrections & Amplifications
An earlier version of this article incorrectly attributed a quote, “I’m sure cause some kind of disease,” to Michael Lin. It was said by David Liu. (April 27, 2020)

[SHOOTER12 8787]

14 minutes ago, WBT said:

And get on the news for price gouging?

Of course with 25% supply they should be able to raise prices.  Demand will also be down of course but not as much I'd guess.  Of course in about 2 weeks we're supposed to go to 50% capacity and you'd have to find a new equilibrium again.

Survival...try anything.  Of course the ideal situation would be for customers to just say " here, add this to the bill", not a tip, but a self markup.

Yes, surely the gouging angle would be a bitch.