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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

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RayDog

RayDog 682

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12 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

well in normal life, the US gets to 500,000 in 2 months @8,000 deaths a day.. not from an infectious disease, but its a jaw dropping #  to how much death happens

 

 

Who knows what the % is of those who die from covid wouldn’t have made it to next week in a normal year

Actually it is pretty easy to document total deaths with covid versus average deaths without and compute the difference. 

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Dbeasy

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It’s such an amazing coincidence that you can take any event, oh let’s take for example a pandemic, and see everyone’s political affiliations align perfectly on the issue. It happens on every issue: sexual assault, immigration, pandemics, etc. It’s all about teams, and no longer about issues. Sigh. I miss the days of objective evaluation of issues rather than complete alignment of beliefs to ones political affiliation.

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dcar00

dcar00 14035

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Cool, now compare that to say the response of the United States where we've constantly been saying its under control and everything is fine. Should the world believe us? Should they ban all travel to their country from the most infected country in the world?

yes

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stork642

stork642 4498

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

 

 

 

 

 

These thoughts all brought you by the same posters who think China should have instantly recognized a novel disease was spreading and shut it down immediately, that everything is 100% China's fault, and that no one else could have done anything to slow or stop it. Or, as I like to call them, complete fucking idiots. 

Yup. 

It became 100% China’s fault when they starting lying to cover up the virus which led to a domino effect in how the entire fucking world responded to said virus.  China receiving 100% of the blame for how this virus spread throughout the world is well deserved.  Fuck The Chinese Government for their straight up lies and coverup.  

Edited by stork642
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17447

Posted
Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

This post brought to you by a sad fuckstick that couldn’t see we were picking on Hugo, because he’s fucking Hugo.  
 

not to mention the fact that China did everything they could do for almost 2 months to keep a lid on this ordeal, including using their proxy org The WHO to double deal for them.   What a fucking time to be alive.   
 

I can’t even believe you wrote what you just wrote with a straight face.    Well, yeah I can.  But go ahead, and neg away you little bitch. 

I didn't neg you and I will not neg you. I'm happy to keep calling out idiotic posts though. Hugo's post was benign and objectively true, we can and should be better prepared. The fact that you and the rest of your gang imply some broader meaning to any post that isn't limited to blaming China 100% for everything says a shit ton about how pathetic y'all really are. Y'all talk about nuance, but clearly have no understanding of what the term means. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
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11 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Cool, now compare that to say the response of the United States where we've constantly been saying its under control and everything is fine. Should the world believe us? Should they ban all travel to their country from the most infected country in the world?

I highly doubt that’s actually the case to be honest.  I would be willing to wager a hefty sum of $$ that we still have fewer deaths than China, even if we ‘perhaps’ have more infections.  I’m not even sure they still don’t have more infections than we do here to be honest.  
 

but that’s beside the point. If the world were to ban air travel from the US for a while, I’d say go ahead.  I wouldn’t call them racist/xenophobes for doing it either. But much of the world knows where they get their bread and butter, let alone knowing how their bread is buttered.  

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15325

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I didn't neg you and I will not neg you. I'm happy to keep calling out idiotic posts though. Hugo's post was benign and objectively true, we can and should be better prepared. The fact that you and the rest of your gang imply some broader meaning to any post that isn't limited to blaming China 100% for everything says a shit ton about how pathetic y'all really are. Y'all talk about nuance, but clearly have no understanding of what the term means. 

You negged 5 straight posts of mine.

 

my gang?  Lol.  I called out Hugo for being Hugo, and trying to gain another ruble for each of his inane comments that are supposed to appear innocent.  

Edited by Trey3216
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Eskimohorn

Eskimohorn 5615

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We’ll be close to herd immunity in 4 months

So in 4 months, more than 200 million Americans will have antibodies meeting the 70% minimum standard for herd immunity to be a thing?

More likely scenario in 4 months than achieving herd immunity: combo of heat, mutation, higher immunity rates, and social distancing.

Perhaps you mean something else than herd immunity? I added higher immunity rates because a 30% immunity rate is not nothing, especially if you can track antibodies, like in key populations and confirm such antibodies provide immunity (which they havent done yet).
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Eskimohorn

Eskimohorn 5615

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well in normal life, the US gets to 500,000 in 2 months @8,000 deaths a day.. not from an infectious disease, but its a jaw dropping #  to how much death happens 
 
Who knows what the % is of those who die from covid wouldn’t have made it to next week in a normal year

New York state provides some devastating mortality rates that have been covered earlier. NYC mortality rates increased 300% from previous periods before the outbreak.

People aren’t just slipping on their tea.
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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17447

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:


New York state provides some devastating mortality rates that have been covered earlier. NYC mortality rates increased 300% from previous periods before the outbreak.

People aren’t just slipping on their tea.

To be fair, I do think the virus is killing a number of the frailer members of society that likely wouldn't have made it the rest of the year. Essentially, we are shifting a good number of deaths that would have occurred later in the year to now (this is still bad, obviously). Now, I don't think that makes up the majority of deaths or anything. But I wouldn't be terribly surprised if it was something like 20% of them. I believe the Brits estimated something similar for their fatalities. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Iceman

Iceman 2640

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23 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

No, no I didn't. Confusion emote is not a neg. Do you see a red negative sign under the post? No? Then no neg. Jesus. 

you're not confused.  You just disagree.  Stop being a pussy about it and share your opinion.

Neutral emojis...LOLz.   #Rushlyrics

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dcar00

dcar00 14035

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a real analysis of NYC/NJ and Mich by age, more exact living location, if they traveled overseas(Dec onward), did they ride mass transit would be interesting.  their CCFR isn't as high as a few other states but they are STILL half the deaths and NJ is increasing while NYC is decreasing.  I wonder if NJ is clearing some of the probables like NY did a couple of weeks ago.

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8799

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So in 4 months, more than 200 million Americans will have antibodies meeting the 70% minimum standard for herd immunity to be a thing?

More likely scenario in 4 months than achieving herd immunity: combo of heat, mutation, higher immunity rates, and social distancing.

Perhaps you mean something else than herd immunity? I added higher immunity rates because a 30% immunity rate is not nothing, especially if you can track antibodies, like in key populations and confirm such antibodies provide immunity (which they havent done yet).

Yes I believe in 4 months we’ll be closer to herd immunity.

The entire country is beginning to ramp up testing to catch NY. I can speak for MN in this week is our largest week of testing and nobody’s shock, cases are going up. We’re geared to have even more testing soon (beginning of next week) I assume more states too are in the same boat. So we’ve been in 6 weeks of shelter in place and the cases aren’t slowing down at all, in fact they’re rising.


With this being such a spreadable disease with a good chunk of infectees not knowing they had it...it’s been fucked from the word go.


Just my .02 on everything
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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8799

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To be fair, I do think the virus is killing a number of the frailer members of society that likely wouldn't have made it the rest of the year. Essentially, we are shifting a good number of deaths that would have occurred later in the year to now (this is still bad, obviously). Now, I don't think that makes up the majority of deaths or anything. But I wouldn't be terribly surprised if it was something like 20% of them. I believe the Brits estimated something similar for their fatalities. 

MN released a number yesterday saying 99.24% of MNs deaths are from long term care or significant underlying health problems. We’re close to 350 deaths . The stat was released when a reporter asked about it on yesterday’s briefing so they’ve known about it.


https://kstp.com/coronavirus/covid-19-daily-briefing-increase-in-cases-due-to-increase-in-testing-more-tailored-lsquostay-at-homersquo-order-possible/5714646/
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wild_turkey

wild_turkey 3153

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2 hours ago, 'stache said:

Yeah, and it sucks something fierce. But there are ways to help wage earners and small business owners without defying doctors and health experts and putting workers and consumers in danger. If you really think this is about helping them, well, there's not much else I can say that isn't blatantly obvious. It still begs the question, do we not believe the experts or do we just not care? The shut downs have already been devastating. If the doctors say another month or more is required, it makes no sense to go against that, except for the obvious need to help the economy numbers.

The CARE Act was a $2 trillion stimulus package  to help small businesses and individuals.

The small business arm of that is the PPP loan which was hundreds of billions of dollars which was used up almost immediately. Many businesses are on the verge of going under or are currently in limbo because they did not get a PPP loan. For businesses that did get approved for a PPP loan, it is intended to cover payroll and rent for a period of 8 weeks. We are already 4-5 weeks into that in most places, so unless you expect the federal government to roll out another massive stimulus package to extend PPP loans for another 4-8 weeks, this thing has a time limit that is rapidly approaching.

The individual stimulus payments max out at $3400 for a family with 2 kids. That's not a lot of money for most people. Unemployment is through the roof and lots of people who need unemployment can't even get it because the unemployment offices are overwhelmed.

Banks have been pressured to give forbearance to mortgage holders and that seems to be working, but that won't continue indefinitely. Landlords won't continue accepting 0 rent from people indefinitely. Then what? There's a breaking point here.

This hasn't been about stocks since March. Stocks will recover unless you are an American Airlines or Halliburton employee on the verge of retirement, and even those people will probably be fine in 5 years. This is about the collapse of small businesses across the country, rising unemployment numbers, individuals and families losing their entire wealth, and increasing poverty.

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StruggleBus

StruggleBus 3922

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6 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

The CARE Act was a $2 trillion stimulus package  to help small businesses and individuals.

The small business arm of that is the PPP loan which was hundreds of billions of dollars which was used up almost immediately. Many businesses are on the verge of going under or are currently in limbo because they did not get a PPP loan. For businesses that did get approved for a PPP loan, it is intended to cover payroll and rent for a period of 8 weeks. We are already 4-5 weeks into that in most places, so unless you expect the federal government to roll out another massive stimulus package to extend PPP loans for another 4-8 weeks, this thing has a time limit that is rapidly approaching.

The individual stimulus payments max out at $3400 for a family with 2 kids. That's not a lot of money for most people. Unemployment is through the roof and lots of people who need unemployment can't even get it because the unemployment offices are overwhelmed.

Banks have been pressured to give forbearance to mortgage holders and that seems to be working, but that won't continue indefinitely. Landlords won't continue accepting 0 rent from people indefinitely. Then what? There's a breaking point here.

This hasn't been about stocks since March. Stocks will recover unless you are an American Airlines or Halliburton employee on the verge of retirement, and even those people will probably be fine in 5 years. This is about the collapse of small businesses across the country, rising unemployment numbers, individuals and families losing their entire wealth, and increasing poverty.

The majority of small businesses I’ve spoken to have been shut out of PPP loans. Banks prioritized their larger customers for PPP, meaning the funds dried up before the businesses that needed them most got access.

The lawsuits that have ensued against banks should be interesting.

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gmr548

gmr548 16511

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Posted



To be fair, I do think the virus is killing a number of the frailer members of society that likely wouldn't have made it the rest of the year. Essentially, we are shifting a good number of deaths that would have occurred later in the year to now (this is still bad, obviously). Now, I don't think that makes up the majority of deaths or anything. But I wouldn't be terribly surprised if it was something like 20% of them. I believe the Brits estimated something similar for their fatalities. 



The beauty of throwing out baseless unsupported guesses is that no one can call your reasoning into question, because there was never any involved.
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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15212

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1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

I didn't neg you and I will not neg you. I'm happy to keep calling out idiotic posts though. Hugo's post was benign and objectively true, we can and should be better prepared. The fact that you and the rest of your gang imply some broader meaning to any post that isn't limited to blaming China 100% for everything says a shit ton about how pathetic y'all really are. Y'all talk about nuance, but clearly have no understanding of what the term means. 

The fact that you invoke Hugo and "nuance" in the same paragraph means you need to go sit in the corner for the rest of the night...

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DDD Dad

DDD Dad 14251

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At this point I am him. I am Rex Kramer, just as Surly has deemed South Austin’s mom to be one hell of a whore. Fuck it. I can’t wait to fly again and leave CovidSkoal droplets everywhere. 

Quoting for posterity.
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GHOSTUSER

GHOSTUSER 361

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

No, no I didn't. Confusion emote is not a neg. Do you see a red negative sign under the post? No? Then no neg. Jesus. 

Confusion emote sucks. You’re the only fucker I have seen do it. It doesn’t award points positively or negatively. Negging at least conveys an emotional response. It’s as bad as iMessage reactions. God I fucking hate those.

Edited by Iconoclast Texan
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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15212

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44 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

Banks have been pressured to give forbearance to mortgage holders and that seems to be working, but that won't continue indefinitely. Landlords won't continue accepting 0 rent from people indefinitely. Then what? There's a breaking point here.

This hasn't been about stocks since March. Stocks will recover unless you are an American Airlines or Halliburton employee on the verge of retirement, and even those people will probably be fine in 5 years. This is about the collapse of small businesses across the country, rising unemployment numbers, individuals and families losing their entire wealth, and increasing poverty.

Which of course articulates quite well the earlier point about the percentages:  continue to stay ensconced while your life's wealth and savings crumbles around you, or risk exposure to a virus with a mortality rate approaching 1%.  

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Judge Roybeanbag

Judge Roybeanbag 11810

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1 hour ago, stork642 said:

It became 100% China’s fault when they starting lying to cover up the virus which led to a domino effect in how the entire fucking world responded to said virus.  China receiving 100% of the blame for how this virus spread throughout the world is well deserved.  Fuck The Chinese Government for their straight up lies and coverup.  

Maybe if you support smart government that isn’t going to get punked by China 99% of time, you won’t spend so much time being angry about being punked by China.  While you’re, you know, getting sick or dying.  Try harder next time.

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XYZ

XYZ 2154

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42 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

The majority of small businesses I’ve spoken to have been shut out of PPP loans. Banks prioritized their larger customers for PPP, meaning the funds dried up before the businesses that needed them most got access.

The lawsuits that have ensued against banks should be interesting.

Banksters won’t be held accountable, I’m pretty sure of that.

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The Dog

The Dog 43803

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Posted
Maybe if you support smart government that isn’t going to get punked by China 99% of time, you won’t spend so much time being angry about being punked by China.  While you’re, you know, getting sick or dying.  Try harder next time.

I don’t care how smart you are if someone keeps information from you that you need to make an informed decision then you will struggle.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52342

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, stork642 said:

It became 100% China’s fault when they starting lying to cover up the virus which led to a domino effect in how the entire fucking world responded to said virus.  China receiving 100% of the blame for how this virus spread throughout the world is well deserved.  Fuck The Chinese Government for their straight up lies and coverup.  

If China doesn’t lie, do you think the USA halts international travel early enough to then be able to track and trace incidences and outbreaks, and have the manpower and testing capability to do so, such that we avoid a major outbreak?

i don’t. Too much value in liberty here, and prior restraint has been roundly rejected by the Supreme Court. 

Edited by Pato del Muerto
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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52342

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2 hours ago, Eskimohorn said:


So in 4 months, more than 200 million Americans will have antibodies meeting the 70% minimum standard for herd immunity to be a thing?

More likely scenario in 4 months than achieving herd immunity: combo of heat, mutation, higher immunity rates, and social distancing.

Perhaps you mean something else than herd immunity? I added higher immunity rates because a 30% immunity rate is not nothing, especially if you can track antibodies, like in key populations and confirm such antibodies provide immunity (which they havent done yet).

He’s been talking out his ass with numbers all thread with zero to support his position. 

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El Diablo

El Diablo 4232

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Posted
4 hours ago, gmr548 said:

 

Aggy has one real game scheduled before closing the season vs bama and swamp aggy. The season is getting canceled while they're 9-1, the rest of the conference has beaten each other a couple times, and they're putting a SEC championship on the wall.

 

Book it.

 

Need to get them a game with the Wuhan Stew Bats. For science.

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17447

Posted
Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

The beauty of throwing out baseless unsupported guesses is that no one can call your reasoning into question, because there was never any involved.

Baseless? The virus kills a high percentage of the very old and already infirm. That's just a fact, evidenced gruesomely by the high mortality rate in nursing homes. I mean, the percentage was a guess, but I didn't represent it as anything but that. 

Oh, and here is what I was thinking of from the UK:

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51979654.508

Quote

 

"That does not mean there will be no extra deaths - but, Sir David says, there will be 'a substantial overlap'.

'Many people who die of Covid [the disease caused by coronavirus] would have died anyway within a short period,' he says.

Knowing exactly how many is impossible to tell at this stage.

Prof Neil Ferguson, the lead modeller at Imperial College London, has suggested it could be up to two-thirds.

But while deaths without the virus would be spread over the course of a year, those with the virus could come more quickly - that, of course, was the logic for the lockdown to stop the health service being overwhelmed."

 

I would be a little bit surprised if the two thirds number ends up being accurate (and they've already significantly surpassed that 20,000 death mark, so he missed that one).  I'd be curious what assumptions and data he used to come up with it (I haven't seen it laid out anywhere). I guess you could just compare life expectancy with the average age of the fatalities to get a ballpark estimate. 

I've very much in the camp that this is a serious disease that can cause massive harm (and has). But, I don't think it is unreasonable to acknowledge the reality that a significant number of the people that die to it would likely have died at some point later this year. 

 

Edited by Dahobbs
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