Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[dcar00 14035]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

You've spent the entire thread telling everybody that the IFR is actually really low. But if both IFR and R0 are low, then why would we see a rapid rise in deaths in communities all over the world? You'd expect a slow burn (slow increase in number of deaths) or no burn at all. At some point you have to see that the evidence is completely inconsistent with your hopes, right? 

I should have said in US.  It was at or slightly below 2.0 here(which is a big difference from 2.5 when you are talking R0). I was right about this being .2 to .3 IFR over a month ago.  I'll be right about the deaths 80K to 120K over 12 months and I'll be right about the R0.

I think it is interesting IHME's model showed 67K 1 week ago.  that was never going to happen if they include probable/maybe deaths.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

46 minutes ago, elfenix said:

part of it is that testing has ramped up since the middle of last week.  from april 3-21 we were averaging 151,000 tests per day (with one outlier on april 4 of 229K, only two others in the mid 160s).  on apr 22 there was a dump of 314K tests, and since then we've been averaging   216K tests per day.  average positives went from 29,426 in the earlier period to 28,860 in the last week.

 

 

good info, thanks. 

[pacman 7328]

Labor force participation rate: predicted to fall just under 60%

https://www.marketplace.org/2020/04/30/labor-force-participation-rate-signals-massive-job-loss/

[Hmbre97 6297]

 

 

 

 

 

 

[justhookit 4180]

No wonder @closetojumping bailed from this thread. And @SydneyCarton. We’ve got people literally pulling numbers out of their ass, CR posters from both sides coming hard in the paint with their talking points, a dude that basically said he was good with a 1% fatality rate (wtf man?),  Hugo and Icono and Brisket opining (no offense buddy), and to top it off a sooner doctor posting repeatedly with no mention of ou sucking. This aggression will not stand, man.

[justhookit 4180]

13 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

The end  of that post is key.  I was seeing over 30 patients a day when I would have had C19. It was late Feb/Early March well before we had full precautions in Chicago.  I only had the loss of smell.  If this was spreading I would have seen patients turn positive.  We had zero cases in my facilities/hospitals 2 weeks after that time period.  On a typical week I'll go to 12-15 hospitals/SNF's...providing actual patient care at each place.  That many places and zero spread is pretty crazy.  If you're asymptomatic you're definitely not shedding much virus in most cases. 

You read the whole thing? Numbers to me look really weird. Overall I can explain it away to inaccurate tests and a testing group that likely has a much higher exposure rate, but the zero hospitalizations throws me.

of course the numbers since the beginning of this in January haven’t made a whole lot of sense.

[justhookit 4180]

11 hours ago, Newdoc said:

For a local doc that’s a pretty big undertaking. His data seems to line up with the trends we are seeing across the country. As the doc knows, his sample is only slightly random. I don’t think he’s getting published with his “study” but kudos for tackling the testing in a clinical setting. Of course someone could compile his data with others for a meta-analysis.

He didn’t imply it was a study and neither did I. His sample as he admits is much worse than random. It’s just interesting and since I am a numbers guy I wish I could see many more reports of testing like this one. If every local doc cared this much, and the key is had the ability to test this much, we’d know exactly where we are. But here we sit.

From his email “Dr. Campbell's population does not reflect the general population. It self-selected for testing, reflected in the number of Groups or families (491) that were tested. This population is cared for by a private physician and therefore receives higher quality care. They are more engaged in their own health than the general population, and have fewer untreated underlying conditions. This population also travels more extensively that the general population. There was travel in the tested population recorded in February and March to every continent except Antarctica.

This means these results can not be projected onto the general population, either in Bexar County or nationally. It does indicate a much higher percentage of the population in the 78209 ZIP code has been exposed to the virus than expected based on the most common models with limited severe cases.”

Edited May 1, 2020 by justhookit

[Somnio 751]

7 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

That does not look good, and that is with unprecedented shelter in place orders around the country.

And now we're going to start easing away from social distancing?  Does not sound like a good plan at this point in my opinion.

[Newdoc 3433]

1 hour ago, justhookit said:

This population is cared for by a private physician and therefore receives higher quality care.

Huh? Sorry, that’s a load of crap. I know those are his words.

Even if he didn’t call it a study, it’s a study. He publicly released data in a study form. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Newdoc
Clarification

[Dbeasy 14966]

Assuming the Hong Kong data is reliable, I think the US approach may have been suboptimal. 

[Loco 3752]

14 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

The Very, Very Sandy Butthole was one of my favorite children's books.  I confess that it was mostly because of Eric Carle's delightful illustrations.

Your uncle took you to the beach a lot, huh?

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

58 minutes ago, Somnio said:

That does not look good, and that is with unprecedented shelter in place orders around the country.

And now we're going to start easing away from social distancing?  Does not sound like a good plan at this point in my opinion.

Or it could be that the VAST majority of those who died were already in nursing homes/hospitals and near death. Or in NY/NJ.

Raw numbers are horrible for making subjective decisions.

[HenryJames 65890]

 

[Iceman 2640]

4 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Or it could be that the VAST majority of those who died were already in nursing homes/hospitals and near death. Or in NY/NJ.

Raw numbers are horrible for making subjective decisions.

or maybe real solutions have not even been part of the equation.

Sounds harsh, but the reality supports the notion.  There is some wildly inconsistent "prevention" going on.

Edited May 1, 2020 by Iceman

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

2 hours ago, justhookit said:

CR posters from both sides

Found the flaw

[Iceman 2640]

9 hours ago, Bevo said:

Assuming R0 is 0.75, that means that the virus is disappearing in our state. Unfortunately, when we stop social distancing and good hygiene practices, R0 will begin to grow again. 

assumes lockdown in name only was already affecting/ impeding the spread of the virus.  Virtually impossible to prove/ disprove the effectiveness when all manner of people were still going to retail grocery and home supply outlets.

 

But we gotta buy-in on the lockdown right?  Just so we can say we did something...

Edited May 1, 2020 by Iceman

[gmr548 16509]

 

This was a concern?

[Guest Lobo]

It’s fake science just like fake pharma going around.  The White Paper merely discussing the air/gas involved with flatulence.  Meanwhile at the Surly Laboratories, the shart is being studied as it most certainly carries the virus in a temperate liquid host form.  

[Loco 3752]

5 minutes ago, Iceman said:

assumes lockdown in name only was already affecting/ impeding the spread of the virus.  Virtually impossible to prove/ disprove the effectiveness when all manner of people were still going to retail grocery and home supply outlets.

 

But we gotta buy-in on the lockdown right?  Just so we can say we did something...

You know the effectiveness of the "Shelter in Place" orders is not digital.   There is clearly robust evidence that the "lock downs" were largely followed.  I don't think anyone would argue that they were perfect.

If the "lockdowns" were ignored where are all the people usually at the parks, restaurants, movies, sporting events, etc...   They didn't all cram in the grocery store.  After all if the "lockdowns" were/are a joke why is Yallqaeda  throwing a tactical barbie tissy-fit?

Less interaction equals fewer transmissions.   There is a balance, no one here knows what that balance is, but it's not lock it all down or let'r rip.

[Iceman 2640]

I just (strenuously) doubt the effectiveness/ (swinging fists in the air as opposed to skilled boxing in a fight) of what we did and continue to do.  We have no measure of what the benefit was/is; but we gotta keep doing it, dammit!

This is the way... why?... because it makes us feel better inside.

Edited May 1, 2020 by Iceman

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

8 minutes ago, Loco said:

There is clearly robust evidence that the "lock downs" were largely followed.

You've obviously not been near any Walmart stores in the last 30 days.

[utee94 15745]

3 minutes ago, Iceman said:

I just (strenuously) doubt the effectiveness/ (swinging fists in the air as opposed to skilled boxing in a fight) of what we did and continue to do.  We have no measure of what the benefit was/is; but we gotta keep doing it, dammit!

This is the way... why?... because it makes us feel better inside.

I understand your frustration.  All I can say is, there was obviously a significant decrease in human interactions.  We'll never know to what extent it helped, so if that's your main point, well, you're right.  We will never know.

There are logical deductions that can be made, as the rate of increase in deaths that was rapidly rising, has leveled off, now 4-5 weeks after most stay-at-home orders were issued across the counties and municipalities here in Texas. 

As for the final part of your post-- we're NOT still doing it.  State of Texas orders are changing as of today.  Various counties and municipalities are allowing limited reopenings as of today.  More will follow.

Some believe that's a terrible idea, and some believe we should have opened weeks ago.  Those beliefs don't affect the fact that things are opening up regardless, so I really don't understand your point that we're continuing to do the same thing.  Factually, we aren't.

 

 

[Bevo 13527]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/british-doctors-warn-chinese-ventilators-could-kill-if-used-hospitals-n1194046

 

LONDON — Senior British doctors have warned that 250 ventilators the United Kingdom bought from China risk causing "significant patient harm, including death," if they are used in hospitals, according to a letter seen by NBC News.

The doctors said the machines had a problematic oxygen supply, could not be cleaned properly, had an unfamiliar design and a confusing instruction manual, and were built for use in ambulances, not hospitals.

 

[Loco 3752]

5 minutes ago, Iceman said:

I just (strenuously) doubt the effectiveness/ (swinging fists in the air as opposed to skilled boxing in a fight) of what we did and continue to do.  We have no measure of what the benefit was/is; but we gotta keep doing it, dammit!

This is the way... why?... because it makes us feel better inside.

Agree,

I have been pleasantly surprised at the level of folks in my neck of the woods following precautions.  I went to a small pool store to get more chlorine, it's about twice the size of a small Subway and absolutely reeks of chlorine. (How a virus could live there I have no fucking idea)

There was a sign on their automatic sliding door that said "no mask no service"   I called them from my truck and worked it out so the "young" guy would come out pick up my bottles fill them and put them back outside.  I would have to come in and pay though.  Once I was loaded up AND after the only other customer in the store left I was allowed in to pay.  These dudes had finally cracked the code on the touch-less card processing, which in itself is a minor miracle.   I thanked them for helping me out and on the way out the owner was kind enough to scold me for not having a mask and told me if he got the 'Rona he was going to kill my whole family.

/csb

[Loco 3752]

9 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

You've obviously not been near any Walmart stores in the last 30 days.

That's been true for the past 10 years or so.   

[SydneyCarton 47876]

3 hours ago, justhookit said:

No wonder @closetojumping bailed from this thread. And @SydneyCarton. We’ve got people literally pulling numbers out of their ass, CR posters from both sides coming hard in the paint with their talking points, a dude that basically said he was good with a 1% fatality rate (wtf man?),  Hugo and Icono and Brisket opining (no offense buddy), and to top it off a sooner doctor posting repeatedly with no mention of ou sucking. This aggression will not stand, man.

Ha. Yeah don’t think I’ve bailed on this thread. But I certainly don’t feel much of a need to birddog it anymore. Outside of the CR bullshit, the situation just seems to have reached a level of inevitability. Economies are opening up, the hospital curve seems  to have been flattened for now, but with the economies opening its basically what’s going to happen will happen. Personally, my family will stay hunkered down and observe what happens around us the next 6-8 weeks as we open up and see what happens, since we both have asthma (even as some evidence suggests asthma isn’t really an underlying condition). For us, the question will be if my wife is forced back to her job. At that point, we have to stick our son back in daycare. Which might as well be the same thing as licking doorknobs all over town as far as I’m concerned. So honestly, I feel less urgency to check here. Whatever path we are going down seems pretty much set at this point, and all we can do is observe and shelter as long as we can. A therapy is going to be discovered or it won’t. The weather will help or it won’t. This thing will blow back up or it won’t. Well have to put our kid back in daycare or we won’t. Plus I had a board meeting this week so ive been busy with that. But yeah, now that I type it all out, you’re right, dealing with the inevitable political and general pussyrubbing here seems less necessary since our decisions are basically as informed as they can be and much of what it going to happen seems set. 
 

my wife commented that just when you get “comfortable” with this fucking virus, as much as you can be, something changes. First it’s old people and smokers. Then it’s any age with underlying conditions. Then young people start dying. It’s just a respiratory disease. Then it goes after other organs like the kidneys if it can’t get your lungs. Now it’s blood clotting and causing strokes. Testing still sucks and that’s not changing. We have no answer if antibodies work against being reinfected. From my vantage point, theres basically only a handful of things I can control: Shelter as long as we can, continue to over-buy groceries and meat from a local farm, and at some point perhaps decide when it might be best to try and get infected since that seems inevitable. 
 

I’ll probably be back posting this weekend or next week, because who doesn’t love a good BALLGAME! But yeah, I don’t feel much urgency to keep up or read back through 10 pages if I miss a day. 
 

CloseToJumping is just a pussy, however. So let’s be clear on the point. He made 3 separate reservations at different restaurants tonight and is hitting the town, so we’ll see if he makes an appearance in the Sick with covid thread. 

[Kevin O’Shea 279]

Weren’t these idiots defiant at the start of this? I’d have to scroll back hundreds of pages but pretty positive they threw a big party after this all started and got real butt hurt at peoples comments complaining about it. People don’t forget. 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

12 minutes ago, Bevo said:

LONDON — Senior British doctors have warned that 250 ventilators the United Kingdom bought from China risk causing "significant patient harm, including death," if they are used in hospitals, according to a letter seen by NBC News.

[huge 3788]

So how do we explain the relatively LOW numbers in Harris County? I know first hand that there have been some lax participants in this shut down.

To what do we contribute this “success”?

Or am I seeing a Shanghai whitewashing of numbers?

[BabaYaga 15212]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Or it could be that the VAST majority of those who died were already in nursing homes/hospitals and near death. Or in NY/NJ.

Raw numbers are horrible for making subjective decisions.

They do.  We also seem to overestimate the efficacy of SIP

[InkaUtexas 25516]

2 hours ago, Somnio said:

That does not look good, and that is with unprecedented shelter in place orders around the country.

And now we're going to start easing away from social distancing?  Does not sound like a good plan at this point in my opinion.

We have done take out twice this week. Both places said they are not opening up their seating area and are going to continue as is for now. These are mom and pop places and are doing ok. One major reason was the impact on wait staff. They will continue to get my support.

Anyone going to the movies tonight?

[utee94 15745]

 

36 minutes ago, Kevin O’Shea said:

Weren’t these idiots defiant at the start of this? I’d have to scroll back hundreds of pages but pretty positive they threw a big party after this all started and got real butt hurt at peoples comments complaining about it. People don’t forget. 

 

 

I don't know whether or not they were "defiant."  They did have a large gathering on Saturday 3/14, which was the first day of Spring Break for most Austin area schools, and was the day after AISD had decided to shut down ahead of Spring Break on Friday 3/13 in "an abundance of caution."

I know several of those folks, they're good people.  But yeah, calling out others isn't a great look for them.  They should probably just keep their heads downs and take care of their families.

[landman 559]

On 4/28/2020 at 6:20 PM, InkaUtexas said:

Somber... Sad.... Real.... 

 

The average flu does this every year as well, albeit over 6-8 months.  And there's a vaccine for it.

[utee94 15745]

20 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

We have done take out twice this week. Both places said they are not opening up their seating area and are going to continue as is for now. These are mom and pop places and are doing ok. One major reason was the impact on wait staff. They will continue to get my support.

Anyone going to the movies tonight?

I don't believe any theaters decided to open up, so I suppose the answer is "no."

 

[InkaUtexas 25516]

1 minute ago, landman said:

The average flu does this every year as well, albeit over 6-8 months.  And there's a vaccine for it.

Does not take away from a 2 month event. Perhaps people will not take basic hygiene serious and Flu rates will go down. Don't know if this is true, but we can hope. 

As for the posting. You don't have to like it, comment or anything. Hell, hope you enjoy Applebees tonight. 

[InkaUtexas 25516]

3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I don't believe any theaters decided to open up, so I suppose the answer is "no."

 

Starplex in San Marcos has My Spy with three showings listed. That is the only movie they are showing but they are open. 

 

[utee94 15745]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Starplex in San Marcos has My Spy with three showings listed. That is the only movie they are showing but they are open. 

 

Well then eff it, I'm going to San Marcos!!!! 

 

 

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

Restaurant updates (DMN):


Landry’s, a hospitality company owned by Houston billionaire Tilman Fertitta, also plans to open up over 130 restaurants on Friday. The restaurants, which include household names such as Joe’s Crab Shack, Rainforest Cafe and Saltgrass Steak House, will follow the governor’s guidelines and conduct employee screenings and enhanced sanitizing daily, according to a company press release.

Balous Miller, owner of San Antonio-based chains Bill Miller Bar-B-Q and Laguna Madre Seafood, said he would also be opening up his restaurants Friday, using paper menus and taking other precautions suggested by the governor. But he said other Texas restaurant owners have told him they won’t be able to operate under the 25% occupancy restrictions for dining in.

“Many of them are not going to reopen, and they just can't because it won't be profitable at 25% of seating capacity,” he said.

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

[Dahobbs 17447]

Rollover: if enough people uphill decide to try the rolling strategy, they can make the decision for you. 

[DDD Dad 14251]

So how do we explain the relatively LOW numbers in Harris County? I know first hand that there have been some lax participants in this shut down.

To what do we contribute this “success”?

Or am I seeing a Shanghai whitewashing of numbers?

It’s because they canceled the rodeo. Didn’t you hear?

[InkaUtexas 25516]

4 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Well then eff it, I'm going to San Marcos!!!! 

 

 

I am going to go walk around this evening just to see how the bars on the square are handling this. The kids leaving and now summer coming is a double blow to them. 

[InkaUtexas 25516]

4 minutes ago, bigup2dahorns said:

 

So we keep seeing the Texas schools announcing full reopening. Then you see posts from the Northeastern Schools and they are still saying they really dont know. Harvard says they do not know. NHU already told their students to plan on no fall semester. Boston U did the same.

GW is making their call on the 15th of May. Dean of admissions did not sound like he really believed they would be open for classes in the fall in an email to my daughter. They even said if she decided to defer until January they would keep her scholarships for her, but hoped she would at least do the online thing if they go in that direction. They pushed back the initial dorm payments until late July. I like their caution. It is harder to go back to lock down than to be honest to everyone from the beginning. 

Please tell me it is just cuz football. 

[smuggs 9342]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Starplex in San Marcos has My Spy with three showings listed. That is the only movie they are showing but they are open. 

The stifling of my Bautista obsession has been the hardest part of this whole situation. God damn the Starplex in San Marcos for foisting this impossible burden upon me.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

So we keep seeing the Texas schools announcing full reopening. Then you see posts from the Northeastern Schools and they are still saying they really dont know. Harvard says they do not know. NHU already told their students to plan on no fall semester. Boston U did the same.

GW is making their call on the 15th of May. Dean of admissions did not sound like he really believed they would be open for classes in the fall in an email to my daughter. They even said if she decided to defer until January they would keep her scholarships for her, but hoped she would at least do the online thing if they go in that direction. They pushed back the initial dorm payments until late July. I like their caution. It is harder to go back to lock down than to be honest to everyone from the beginning. 

Please tell me it is just cuz football. 

If Harvard plays a football game, does anyone really notice?

[utee94 15745]

4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

So we keep seeing the Texas schools announcing full reopening. Then you see posts from the Northeastern Schools and they are still saying they really dont know. Harvard says they do not know. NHU already told their students to plan on no fall semester. Boston U did the same.

GW is making their call on the 15th of May. Dean of admissions did not sound like he really believed they would be open for classes in the fall in an email to my daughter. They even said if she decided to defer until January they would keep her scholarships for her, but hoped she would at least do the online thing if they go in that direction. They pushed back the initial dorm payments until late July. I like their caution. It is harder to go back to lock down than to be honest to everyone from the beginning. 

Please tell me it is just cuz football. 

It would be awesome if football had that kind of power.  But I don't think that's it.

I think it's likely due to the difference in severity of illness between the northeast, and Texas.  They're seeing a lot of problems in NY/NJ, and a lot of students at northeastern schools come from that area.  For various reasons, it just hasn't been the same here in Texas.  Regional universities are reacting to the realities in their own regions.

 

 

[InkaUtexas 25516]

2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

If Harvard plays a football game, does anyone really notice?

Yale does. 

[Auto Driller 2504]

15 minutes ago, bigup2dahorns said:

 

Glad to see they decided against unsafely resuming.

[InkaUtexas 25516]

Just now, utee94 said:

It would be awesome if football had that kind of power.  But I don't think that's it.

I think it's likely due to the difference in severity of illness between the northeast, and Texas.  They're seeing a lot of problems in NY/NJ, and a lot of students at northeastern schools come from that area.  For various reasons, it just hasn't been the same here in Texas.  Regional universities are reacting to the realities in their own regions.

 

 

Which is the proper approach. Regional solutions are required as this bitch is not going to hit everyone/everyplace at the same time. For GW the main decision is going to come from DC Government. They are still on the upward trend and I do not see the city reopening for at least another month or so. 

I just don't want to see more Liberty university incidents. Dorms and dining halls are the cruise ships of academia. 

[InkaUtexas 25516]

1 minute ago, Auto Driller said:

Glad to see they decided against unsafely resuming.

well they must have all the qualified experts.