Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Surly Bevo 24696]

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

Going through week 15 (week that ended right before Easter)

TX

2020-61,208 deaths

2019-61,004 deaths

2018-63,918 deaths

NY

2020-34,932 deaths

2019-31,529 deaths

2018-32,480 deaths

 

So Texas just about average, NY above average but what I struggle with is this stuff I keep seeing about 20K+ excess deaths in NY.  This data right here is where they are sourcing a lot of those statements from and when I go in state by state and even only go through week 15 (which for TX says is 98% complete...so close enough and for NY says is 100% complete) I'm not coming up with same or a trajectory that would even get close to that (given first few weeks of April were pretty busy death weeks on the Covid front in NY).  Not saying those folks are wrong but I can't seem to find the discrepancy.  

Frustrating the lack of clarity

Edited May 1, 2020 by Surly Bevo

[Eskimohorn 5615]

 
Undercounted?  Most notices I've seen over inflate the attribution of COVID and under represent infection rates due to limited testing.  

Likely undercounted based on evaluating overall mortality rates during outbreaks. Corona is likely spiking mortality, where normally the mortality rate is stable.

Likely, your notices are anecdotal. Plenty of discussion on the difficulty of portmortems during this crisis.

In the longterm this statistic will probably be less conclusive, but still useful.

[BabaYaga 15212]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yes, it does (or perhaps more correctly, can) reduce the total. How much it reduces the total just depends on the reduction efforts and on random chance. I don't understand the rest of your post. (1) The point of the shutdowns was to prevent massive rise in deaths and healthcare utilization, so if it works we should expect to see less healthcare utilization. (2) We see furloughed healthcare workers even in NY because our healthcare system is geared toward treating conditions other than Covid-19. A bunch of our normal healthcare workers have little purpose in treating Covid-19 (e.g., surgeons). Unfortunately, those services also tend to be the bulk of how hospitals and doctors make money, so we also see those systems having to deal with a lot less income than normal, even if they are filled to the brim with Covid-19 patients.  (3) What the fuck does Pelosi have to do with anything? At what time? What are you even talking about?

"Can" reduce?  It "can".....we're starring down the barrel of a $10 trillion dollar oops for mitigation strategies that "can" work, but we don't know if they actually do, or to what extent.  You are just waxing poetic about what "might" happen, "could" happen, and you "hope" happens.  The evidence doesn't bear this out.  Maybe we reduced cases from 50%.....but maybe not.  Especially in light of new evidence that this might have been here before Xmas.  

The point of the furloughs is the histrionics of this virus is causing normally healthy people to stay away from routine checkups, elective procedures in areas where case counts are in the dozens.  There will be untold numbers of casualties from otherwise normal people misses procedures.  How many cancer screenings will be missed?  Cardiology issues gone undiscovered?  Auto-immune issues?

And the FUCKING POINT about Pelosi was a "robust ban" would have been fucking impossible because every twat in DC was playing politics with this.  This clear enough for you know?

[Dahobbs 17447]

3 minutes ago, JBJ said:

Here's my problem with this: we currently aren't flattening the curve in the way you are using the term.  Flattening the curve in that manner involves cutting thru the top off the peak, which we aren't doing.  We are sitting in the base camp delaying the climb.  I don't think it was the wrong thing to do 30 days ago when information was limited and much different.  It's dumb to continue to do so.

Models I've seen show that even modest social distancing policies result in some reduction in totals. I agree that if we were just to open back up and immediately revert to our pre-covid patterns, then your analogy would be apt. I don't think that is going to happen, or at least I sure hope not. We have better testing now (not ideal, but better). We have better access to PPE (again, not ideal, but better). So, we are definitely in a better position to open up and enact some sane policies that will reduce the totals. The problem I have is that we don't appear to have much of a plan on how to do that, particularly how to identify and isolate infected (which is the most effective thing we can do to prevent spread and keep the overall risk low as we re-open). I absolutely agree that there is a lot of dumb going around. 

[Eskimohorn 5615]

I wonder what the comorbidity graphs are going to look like from May-say September. Probably going to see a certain decline in deaths for those months from these other conditions

Thats going to be difficult to isolate. And by the Fall, as more people dive deeper into squalor, you’ll see deaths increase. Its why this crisis is so complicated because you have to balance multiple concerns over time.

[Dahobbs 17447]

9 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

"Can" reduce?  It "can".....we're starring down the barrel of a $10 trillion dollar oops for mitigation strategies that "can" work, but we don't know if they actually do, or to what extent.  You are just waxing poetic about what "might" happen, "could" happen, and you "hope" happens.  The evidence doesn't bear this out.  Maybe we reduced cases from 50%.....but maybe not.  Especially in light of new evidence that this might have been here before Xmas.  

The point of the furloughs is the histrionics of this virus is causing normally healthy people to stay away from routine checkups, elective procedures in areas where case counts are in the dozens.  There will be untold numbers of casualties from otherwise normal people misses procedures.  How many cancer screenings will be missed?  Cardiology issues gone undiscovered?  Auto-immune issues?

And the FUCKING POINT about Pelosi was a "robust ban" would have been fucking impossible because every twat in DC was playing politics with this.  This clear enough for you know?

Yes, can. As in, it depends on exactly what we do. The right actions will work. But we can also do plenty of pointless stuff that will not have a noticeable effect. 

There is no actual evidence that it was here before Christmas, certainly not with any significant presence. We would have noticed the uptick in deaths if that were the case. 

The rest of your post clearly doesn't belong on this thread and really doesn't address anything I said. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Dahobbs

[Iceman 2640]

14 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

Going through week 15 (week that ended right before Easter)

TX

2020-61,208 deaths

2019-61,004 deaths

2018-63,918 deaths

NY

2020-34,932 deaths

2019-31,529 deaths

2018-32,480 deaths

 

So Texas just about average, NY above average but what I struggle with is this stuff I keep seeing about 20K+ excess deaths in NY.  This data right here is where they are sourcing a lot of those statements from and when I go in state by state and even only go through week 15 (which for TX says is 98% complete...so close enough and for NY says is 100% complete) I'm not coming up with same or a trajectory that would even get close to that (given first few weeks of April were pretty busy death weeks on the Covid front in NY).  Not saying those folks are wrong but I can't seem to find the discrepancy.  

Frustrating the lack of clarity

it just comes down to whom is funding the science.

There should be no murkiness, eh?  It ain't all that confusing until ulterior motives influence things...but that'd never happen.

[dcar00 14035]

30 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 

You mean America.  This summarizes AMERICA perfectly.  But you're also right -- it summarizes the Surl perfectly.  Wait....the Surl is a microcosm of America?

Yeah, when you realize that, THAT'S when you post "GAME OVER" without any irony.  Surly is America.  America is Surly.  That's like a mobius strip of perfect fuckery.

This is my serious BALLGAME!!!!  4 exclamation points means serious.  1 or 2 means sarcasm.  we kept deaths to under 100K you should be feeling positive.  thats a huge win.

[stork642 4498]

22 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

No, because I said likely. In the 7-state study deaths spikes over 100% and in NYC over 300% since the outbreak started. They’re not all slipping in bathtubs.

NY is it’s own shit show.  You can’t extrapolate any data from there to the rest of the US.  

[Royalfan5 2348]

So for you AM livestock note, fresh pork values were up another 5% this morning, mostly because bellies went apeshit, they are now more than triple what they were two weeks ago, which was record lows, other cuts are flattening out. Beef values worked a little higher, but they are still about 40% higher than the old record and seem to be flattening a bit. Loads have ticked up so they backed up cattle are closing a little of the gap with heavier carcasses which should mostly find a home as hamburger. 

[dcar00 14035]

2 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

So for you AM livestock note, fresh pork values were up another 5% this morning, mostly because bellies went apeshit, they are now more than triple what they were two weeks ago, which was record lows, other cuts are flattening out. Beef values worked a little higher, but they are still about 40% higher than the old record and seem to be flattening a bit. Loads have ticked up so they backed up cattle are closing a little of the gap with heavier carcasses which should mostly find a home as hamburger. 

don't get me wrong, I appreciate the updates immensely but you need to not post this when the thread turns to peak END OF THE WORLD!

[huge 3788]

Bullshit

always post pork belly prices

 

[Hpara759 1777]

3 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

You've obviously not been near any Walmart stores in the last 30 days.

Or Home Depot's

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

13 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

mostly because bellies went apeshit

[JBJ 3649]

35 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Models I've seen show that even modest social distancing policies result in some reduction in totals. I agree that if we were just to open back up and immediately revert to our pre-covid patterns, then your analogy would be apt. I don't think that is going to happen, or at least I sure hope not. We have better testing now (not ideal, but better). We have better access to PPE (again, not ideal, but better). So, we are definitely in a better position to open up and enact some sane policies that will reduce the totals. The problem I have is that we don't appear to have much of a plan on how to do that, particularly how to identify and isolate infected (which is the most effective thing we can do to prevent spread and keep the overall risk low as we re-open). I absolutely agree that there is a lot of dumb going around. 

This is about what R-value can be sustained and when.  Let say the R-value with a reasonable social response, but no government intervention is 1.5.

At R=1.5, you need around 35% of the population immune to jump the peak and around 60% of the population eventually gets it in an uninterrupted curve.

That's where the ground can be gained - between 35% and 60%.  If we hit 35%, live in solitary confinement for a month and reemerge, the virus shouldn't be able to grow exponentially and threaten whole communities.  It might become seasonal. It might just be a random disease people get and don't think twice about.  There's always the potential of it mutating into something worse and reemerging as well, like the flu does every few decades.

We are probably around 13MM infections right now - a shade under 4% of the population.  Open now and we deepen the first wave, but that's my point.  Take your licks now (still in a controlled manner) and return to normalcy as soon as possible.  We need to loosen up for a month or two and then take the economic hit when it will also be most effective against the virus.

That's not necessarily the only strategy.  I've seen proposal for deliberate multiwave, no government intervention, etc.

But continuing our course isn't smart.  We won't really be doing effective damage to the virus until well into winter at this point.  When it comes time to actually bunker down and do the most damage possible, people aren't going to have the economic ability to do so at that point.  And the political will to impose anything effective is also going to be absent.

Edited May 1, 2020 by JBJ

[Dahobbs 17447]

14 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

Going through week 15 (week that ended right before Easter)

TX

2020-61,208 deaths

2019-61,004 deaths

2018-63,918 deaths

NY

2020-34,932 deaths

2019-31,529 deaths

2018-32,480 deaths

 

So Texas just about average, NY above average but what I struggle with is this stuff I keep seeing about 20K+ excess deaths in NY.  This data right here is where they are sourcing a lot of those statements from and when I go in state by state and even only go through week 15 (which for TX says is 98% complete...so close enough and for NY says is 100% complete) I'm not coming up with same or a trajectory that would even get close to that (given first few weeks of April were pretty busy death weeks on the Covid front in NY).  Not saying those folks are wrong but I can't seem to find the discrepancy.  

Frustrating the lack of clarity

You have to remember that the CDC numbers there are not complete. Don't look at the totals to date, just look at the weekly numbers. Or, if you have to look at totals, also look at the NY numbers reported for Covid-19 from other sources. 

Week 14 = 3,431 deaths. Week 15 = 4,156 deaths. Week 16 = 3,695 deaths. Now, compare that to historical data:

From 2014-2019, highest week was 2,493 deaths. Average was 1,938 deaths per week. Median was 1,907 deaths.  Average deviation from the mean was 117. 

That means week 14 of 2020 was at minimum a 77% increase from the mean, a 79% increase from the median, and a 37% from the absolute largest reported number form that period of time. Week 15 was a 114% increase from the mean, a 117% increase from the median, and a 66% increase from the largest prior reported number.

Now, let's update those numbers: we know that since the beginning of April New York has reported at least 18,000 deaths associated with Covid-19 (NY total is currently at 24,000, US total on April 1 was 6,300). So, over those 4.28 weeks (30 days), NY suffered on average 4,200 covid reported deaths per week.  That average, (not maximum) is 116% higher than the mean from the previous 6 years, 120% higher than the median, and 68% higher than highest reported total. And that is just Covid-19 deaths, not all deaths. 

[GopherRock 1765]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/05/01/minnesota-familys-illnesses-suggest-coronavirus-may-have-been-here-longer-than-thought

One family thinks that COVID-19 has been in Minnesota a lot earlier than mid-March. I'm inclined to believe them. 

[Dahobbs 17447]

4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

This is about what R-value can be sustained and when.  Let say the R-value with a reasonable social response, but no government intervention is 1.5.

At R=1.5, you need around 35% of the population immune to jump the peak and around 60% of the population eventually gets it.

That's where the ground can be gained - between 35% and 60%.  If we hit 35%, live in solitary confinement for a month and reemerge, the virus shouldn't be able to grow exponentially and threaten whole communities.  It might become seasonal. It might just be a random disease people get and don't think twice about.  There's always the potential of it mutating into something worse and reemerging as well, like the flu does every few decades.

We are probably around 13MM infections right now - a shade under 4% of the population.  Open now and we deepen the first wave, but that's my point.  Take your licks now (still in a controlled manner) and return to normalcy as soon as possible.  We need to loosen up for a month or two and then take the economic hit when it will also be most effective against the virus.

That's not necessarily the only strategy.  I've seen proposal for deliberate multiwave, no government intervention, etc.

But continuing our course isn't smart.  We won't really be doing effective damage to the virus until well into winter at this point.  When it comes time to actually bunker down and do the most damage possible, people aren't going to have the economic ability to do so at that point.  And the political will to impose anything effective is also going to be absent.

We are on the same page. 

[BabaYaga 15212]

31 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Yes, can. As in, it depends on exactly what we do. The right actions will work. But we can also do plenty of pointless stuff that will not have a noticeable effect. 

There is no actual evidence that it was here before Christmas, certainly not with any significant presence. We would have noticed the uptick in deaths if that were the case. 

The rest of your post clearly doesn't belong on this thread and really doesn't address anything I said. 

It can.  It depends.  It will.  It will not.  Maybe.  Jesus, what nonsense.  

As for actual data?  You mean besides the suggestion from the CDC?  Besides that, you mean?  Opining that in CA, at the vest least they are tracing cases back to Dec.  

[BabaYaga 15212]

10 minutes ago, JBJ said:

But continuing our course isn't smart.  We won't really be doing effective damage to the virus until well into winter at this point.  When it comes time to actually bunker down and do the most damage possible, people aren't going to have the economic ability to do so at that point.  And the political will to impose anything effective is also going to be absent.

Which of course is most everyone's point many pages back.  We are bleeding people dry, which at a point in time very soon, is going to break them.  

[dcar00 14035]

10 minutes ago, JBJ said:

This is about what R-value can be sustained and when.  Let say the R-value with a reasonable social response, but no government intervention is 1.5.

At R=1.5, you need around 35% of the population immune to jump the peak and around 60% of the population eventually gets it in an uninterrupted curve.

That's where the ground can be gained - between 35% and 60%.  If we hit 35%, live in solitary confinement for a month and reemerge, the virus shouldn't be able to grow exponentially and threaten whole communities.  It might become seasonal. It might just be a random disease people get and don't think twice about.  There's always the potential of it mutating into something worse and reemerging as well, like the flu does every few decades.

We are probably around 13MM infections right now - a shade under 4% of the population.  Open now and we deepen the first wave, but that's my point.  Take your licks now (still in a controlled manner) and return to normalcy as soon as possible.  We need to loosen up for a month or two and then take the economic hit when it will also be most effective against the virus.

That's not necessarily the only strategy.  I've seen proposal for deliberate multiwave, no government intervention, etc.

But continuing our course isn't smart.  We won't really be doing effective damage to the virus until well into winter at this point.  When it comes time to actually bunker down and do the most damage possible, people aren't going to have the economic ability to do so at that point.  And the political will to impose anything effective is also going to be absent.

we are IMO much closer to 10% if not slightly more but agree with the rest of your post.

[workswithseed 2036]

4 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Found the flaw

Yeah that's Anastasis schtick.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/05/01/minnesota-familys-illnesses-suggest-coronavirus-may-have-been-here-longer-than-thought
One family thinks that COVID-19 has been in Minnesota a lot earlier than mid-March. I'm inclined to believe them. 

See that story on FOX9 about a guy having covid symptoms back before Christmas, hasn’t been sick since and has covid antibodies?


https://www.fox9.com/news/after-testing-positive-for-antibodies-minnesota-man-thinks-he-may-have-had-covid-19-in-december

[Dahobbs 17447]

3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

It can.  It depends.  It will.  It will not.  Maybe.  Jesus, what nonsense.  

As for actual data?  You mean besides the suggestion from the CDC?  Besides that, you mean?  Opining that in CA, at the vest least they are tracing cases back to Dec.  

You're just arguing to argue. All I said was that flattening the curve can result a in a reduced total. Whether it does or not depends on exactly how we approach flattening the curve, which is what JBJ pointed out. 

It may have been in California in limited quantities around Christmas, that wouldn't be surprising as the west coast had some of the first reported cases. But it wasn't in the US in mass in December, and certainly not prior to that. We would have noticed. What CDC suggestion are you referring to? 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

39 minutes ago, stork642 said:

NY is it’s own shit show.  You can’t extrapolate any data from there to the rest of the US.  

Why not?  What is different about ny that can’t and won’t happen to other large metro populations as we open back up?

why are some so quick to exclude nyc as an outlier when number crunching?

tell me what about their population makes them more susceptible to catching, spreading, and/or dying from covid than the rest of the country. 

[Hate 20103]

I don’t know. I think it was here earlier. I’ve searched for some statistics for cases of pneumonia in the US for December, but I can’t find anything. Deaths could have resulted officially from “pneumonia” in December, even if it was actually Covid that lead to the pneumonia, right? Anyone remember that ESPN reporter that died in December? Here is a screenshot of a Tweet he made where someone responds with their experience of a “pneumonia” like illness that caused them to lose their sense of taste for 3 weeks. Is loss of taste usually a symptom of pneumonia? I can’t find one source that says it is. I realize this is anecdotal, but it is interesting to me.

[BabaYaga 15212]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

You're just arguing to argue. All I said was that flattening the curve can result a in a reduced total. Whether it does or not depends on exactly how we approach flattening the curve, which is what JBJ pointed out. 

It may have been in California in limited quantities around Christmas, that wouldn't be surprising as the west coast had some of the first reported cases. But it wasn't in the US in mass in December, and certainly not prior to that. We would have noticed. What CDC suggestion are you referring to? 

You still don't get it.  You don't get to just pontificate ad nauseam on various options that may or may not work when the current course is obviously not working - which is what everyone is repeatedly saying.

As for the paper, it was published by the CDC in January about the "mysterious cases of pneumonia" killing people back on December 21st.  Now walk the math back to the transmission, incubation and gestation period of the illness.  The WHO was brought in on Dec 31st.  The first Chinese doctor, doctor Li was fucking imprisoned by the Chinese govt and died in jail for "whistle blowing" online about it.  The WHO then dicked around for weeks, tweeting publicly it did not transmit from person to person - a lie we later learned that they knew at the time this was false.  

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

11 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

See that story on FOX9 about a guy having covid symptoms back before Christmas, hasn’t been sick since and has covid antibodies?


https://www.fox9.com/news/after-testing-positive-for-antibodies-minnesota-man-thinks-he-may-have-had-covid-19-in-december

Is there anything on how unique covid antibodies are as compared to other coronavirus antibodies, and how selective the testing is?

i know there’s been a thought out there that  some people may have antibodies from a previous corona bug that are capable of slowing the reproduction rate of covid such that the host gets a mild or asymptomatic case. 

[Schulz2.0 28768]

4 minutes ago, Hate said:

I don’t know. I think it was here earlier. I’ve searched for some statistics for cases of pneumonia in the US for December, but I can’t find anything. Deaths could have resulted officially from “pneumonia” in December, even if it was actually Covid that lead to the pneumonia, right? Anyone remember that ESPN reporter that died in December? Here is a screenshot of a Tweet he made where someone responds with their experience of a “pneumonia” like illness that caused them to lose their sense of taste for 3 weeks. Is loss of taste usually a symptom of pneumonia? I can’t find one source that says it is. I realize this is anecdotal, but it is interesting to me.

He had cancer.

[Guest Lobo]

1 minute ago, Schulz2.0 said:

He had cancer.

And laughter is the best medicine. 

[dcar00 14035]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Why not?  What is different about ny that can’t and won’t happen to other large metro populations as we open back up?

why are some so quick to exclude nyc as an outlier when number crunching?

tell me what about their population makes them more susceptible to catching, spreading, and/or dying from covid than the rest of the country. 

they have a lot of old people living on top of each other and riding subways.  they don't necessarily have a high percentage of older people than other major cities but they have a lot of them.

they are an outlier if you look at total pop of the US(even more if you include NY/NJ) in terms of having 50% of the deaths.  They aren't an outlier if you look at CCFR by state. Michigan is higher.

[UT_OB1 2200]

18 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Why not?  What is different about ny that can’t and won’t happen to other large metro populations as we open back up?

why are some so quick to exclude nyc as an outlier when number crunching?

tell me what about their population makes them more susceptible to catching, spreading, and/or dying from covid than the rest of the country. 

It has been discussed on this thread.  Everyone is concerned about social distancing, SiPs, lockdowns.  NYC has crams as many people per day in small boxes as Dallas or Houston or most other large cities move on their mass transit per month.  It is very clearly different.  

EDIT - can't. get. multi quote. to work right.  Sorry for my screw up, but there it is below.  

Quote

NYC has over 5 million people cram on the subway each day

Houston only has over 6 million per month across all transit forms 

Dallas appears to be about the same as Houston

Paris, which is closer to NYC than Dallas or Houston in terms mass transit, has a per capita case and death rate similar to NYC  

(https://nyc.streetsblog.org/2020/03/23/the-subway-ridership-collapse-in-three-charts/)

https://www.ridemetro.org/Pages/RidershipReport-092019.aspx

https://www.dart.org/about/dartfacts.asp
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/europe/france-coronavirus-cases.amp.html

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by UT_OB1

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

I don’t know. I think it was here earlier. I’ve searched for some statistics for cases of pneumonia in the US for December, but I can’t find anything. Deaths could have resulted officially from “pneumonia” in December, even if it was actually Covid that lead to the pneumonia, right? Anyone remember that ESPN reporter that died in December? Here is a screenshot of a Tweet he made where someone responds with their experience of a “pneumonia” like illness that caused them to lose their sense of taste for 3 weeks. Is loss of taste usually a symptom of pneumonia? I can’t find one source that says it is. I realize this is anecdotal, but it is interesting to me.

Didn’t he have some stage 4 terminal cancer?

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

they have a lot of old people living on top of each other and riding subways.  they don't necessarily have a high percentage of older people than other major cities but they have a lot of them.

they are an outlier if you look at total pop of the US(even more if you include NY/NJ) in terms of having 50% of the deaths.  They aren't an outlier if you look at CCFR by state. Michigan is higher.

So maybe the shutdown helped stop other concentrated areas of people from the same fate as nyc, which as a major international hub plus mass transit was too far gone already?  
but other cities, even more spread out ones, still have the same potential?  
 

what happens if we throttle back up and by August the OL next 19 most populous places look like nyc?

hopefully each individual or family unit will do their own risk mitigation as they are able, so there is a new normal. 

[Trey3216 15325]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Yes, under-counted. NY has seen significantly more excess deaths than the numbers attributed to Covid-19. The historical norm for weekly deaths in NY is in a pretty tight range, and they've seen a several fold increase over that range. Only a portion of that increase is currently covered by the Covid-19 fatality count. Italy has seen the exact same thing.  

How many of those are heart attack/stroke/other victims that didn’t go to the hospital?   I’d bet our “fixable” normal  death rates right now are also drastically higher.  We’re seeing info that suicide rates are starting to rise dramatically. One piece I saw was something in the neighborhood of 5x.  
 

 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

3 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

It has been discussed on this thread.  Everyone is concerned about social distancing, SiPs, lockdowns.  NYC has crams 5x as many people per day in small boxes as Dallas or Houston or most other large cities move on their mass transit per month.  

That’s an accelerant, but between grocery shopping, bars, restaurants, movies, churches, and other gathering places I doubt that mass transit is the overriding factor. 

[Hate 20103]

He had cancer.

Yes, he did. But look at the tweet at him. That person had a mysterious lung condition that required a breathing g machine and a one week stay in the hospital. One notable symptom was loss of sense of taste. And the cancer of the reporter would absolutely be an underlying condition that would prevent the body from defending against a new virus.

[Guest Lobo]

Yep, suicide rates go up during financial/medical crisis.  And go down during war.  Birth rates also follow a curious trend during those two types of macro events.

I'm listening to members of the Texas Congressional Delegation right now (so bi-partisan, no politics).  WHAT THE FUCK IS THE FUCKING HOLDUP WITH TESTING? 

We oscillate between 47-49 in terms of per capita testing.  How is this continuing to be fucking possible after 7 weeks of lockdown/4 months of forward knowledge? 

 

[BabaYaga 15212]

1 minute ago, Trey3216 said:

How many of those are heart attack/stroke/other victims that didn’t go to the hospital?   I’d bet our “fixable” normal  death rates right now are also drastically higher.  We’re seeing info that suicide rates are starting to rise dramatically. One piece I saw was something in the neighborhood of 5x.  
 

 

More than 80% of all the cases in NY had underlying conditions - majority being diabetes, chronic lung disease, and cardiovascular disease.  Issues, that on their own without medical treatment can prove fatal.  Which is why using aggregate numbers gives a false impression.  

[BabaYaga 15212]

@Dahobbs, you a monumental, negging, sandy-vaged pussy....

[Eskimohorn 5615]

Good news on South Korean cases. Reinfections didnt get people sick.

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-south-korean-reactivated-cases-not-reinfected-experts-2020-4

[dcar00 14035]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

So maybe the shutdown helped stop other concentrated areas of people from the same fate as nyc, which as a major international hub plus mass transit was too far gone already?  
but other cities, even more spread out ones, still have the same potential?  
 

what happens if we throttle back up and by August the OL next 19 most populous places look like nyc?

hopefully each individual or family unit will do their own risk mitigation as they are able, so there is a new normal. 

I don't think any other cities except maybe Chicago or San Fran really have the same potential as NYC.  just my opinion.  I think this will have some seasonality to it for the summer.  Mid May is normal flu(not saying it is normal flu) end time and I think it was why the phases were put in such that places get as close to mid May before opening.  I'm pretty sure Abbott knew that 25% opening of restaurants was not going to get restaurants to open so buys us another 2 weeks to get to mid May.  they will at 50% IMO.

yes people will be risk averse by nature but we have a bunch of 20 to 30 somethings that are still 10 feet tall and bullet proof they can start spending money and working.

 

[Loco 3752]

5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

How many of those are heart attack/stroke/other victims that didn’t go to the hospital?   I’d bet our “fixable” normal  death rates right now are also drastically higher.  We’re seeing info that suicide rates are starting to rise dramatically. One piece I saw was something in the neighborhood of 5x.  
 

 

How many medical professionals are killing themselves? (not in Florida recruiting)

[Dahobbs 17447]

8 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

How many of those are heart attack/stroke/other victims that didn’t go to the hospital?   I’d bet our “fixable” normal  death rates right now are also drastically higher.  We’re seeing info that suicide rates are starting to rise dramatically. One piece I saw was something in the neighborhood of 5x.  
 

 

Some percentage of them, I'm sure. But, accidents have been cut so much that it may be something of wash in terms of totals for non-covid related deaths. 

4 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

More than 80% of all the cases in NY had underlying conditions - majority being diabetes, chronic lung disease, and cardiovascular disease.  Issues, that on their own without medical treatment can prove fatal.  Which is why using aggregate numbers gives a false impression.  

Do you think that is unique to New York?

50% of our adult population has underlying conditions. 

https://www.heart.org/en/news/2019/01/31/cardiovascular-diseases-affect-nearly-half-of-american-adults-statistics-show

10% has diabetes

https://www.diabetesresearch.org/diabetes-statistics

39% are obese, 70% are obese or overweight

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm

>10% have chronic lung disease

https://www.lung.org/about-us/mission-impact-and-history/our-impact (37 million)

We aren't a healthy people. 

[dcar00 14035]

9 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That’s an accelerant, but between grocery shopping, bars, restaurants, movies, churches, and other gathering places I doubt that mass transit is the overriding factor. 

absolutely is an overriding factor.  every day someone in NYC on a subway is standing a foot from you during rush hour.

[Dahobbs 17447]

9 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

@Dahobbs, you a monumental, negging, sandy-vaged pussy....

Still isn't a neg and doesn't affect you in the slightest. It is a neutral reaction. I could just a post a bunch of question marks in response to all your absurd posts if you want? 

[BabaYaga 15212]

4 minutes ago, Loco said:

How many medical professionals are killing themselves? (not in Florida recruiting)

Beyond the obvious impact of viral loading, the psychological impact seems to go largely unnoticed.  Anxiety.  Stress.  Lack of sleep.  Then laying having to socially isolate from friends and family.  It's tragic.  

[Hate 20103]

[mention=803]Dahobbs[/mention], you a monumental, negging, sandy-vaged pussy....

He’s far from the only one. You can add Felix and GW Heypuke to that list as well.

[BabaYaga 15212]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Do you think that is unique to New York?

No.  Did I state it was?  The context of the conversation was about NY.  

 

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

We aren't a healthy people. 

More ground breaking analysis from you.  Keep these coming....

[Dahobbs 17447]

1 minute ago, Hate said:

He’s far from the only one. You can add Felix and Ge Heypuke to that list as well.

???? I haven't negged him????