Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[utee94 15745]

Wait, the dude responding to the ESPN guy with cancer, also had cancer?

 

(I think some people are misreading the tweets.  Which isn't surprising because twitter sucks and is stupid.  But still...)

 

[utee94 15745]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

???? I haven't negged him???? 

They think your "confused" response is a neg.  It happens...

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by utee94

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

18 minutes ago, Lobo said:

WHAT THE FUCK IS THE FUCKING HOLDUP WITH TESTING? 

Fucking Coca Cola, man. 

[Schulz2.0 28770]

17 minutes ago, Hate said:

Yes, he did. But look at the tweet at him. That person had a mysterious lung condition that required a breathing g machine and a one week stay in the hospital. One notable symptom was loss of sense of taste. And the cancer of the reporter would absolutely be an underlying condition that would prevent the body from defending against a new virus.

Could have been plenty of other viruses. I doubt he had the coronavirus in mid-November when the best estimate is the virus started in China in mid-November.

[Trey3216 15325]

5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Some percentage of them, I'm sure. But, accidents have been cut so much that it may be something of wash in terms of totals for non-covid related deaths. 

Do you think that is unique to New York?

50% of our adult population has underlying conditions. 

https://www.heart.org/en/news/2019/01/31/cardiovascular-diseases-affect-nearly-half-of-american-adults-statistics-show

10% has diabetes

https://www.diabetesresearch.org/diabetes-statistics

39% are obese, 70% are obese or overweight

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/obesity-overweight.htm

>10% have chronic lung disease

https://www.lung.org/about-us/mission-impact-and-history/our-impact (37 million)

We aren't a healthy people. 

I would bet it’s more than ‘some percentage’.  Think about how many people haven’t been getting their normal physical therapy, how many may have had heart attacks and didn’t get to call the hospital or get there.   A lot of shit that happens everyday may have been completely overlooked by SiP, and will show to have lead to quite a few deaths.  It’ll be a good percentage of them dying of natural causes due to lack of attention

[Dahobbs 17447]

1 minute ago, BabaYaga said:

No.  Did I state it was?  The context of the conversation was about NY.  

 

More ground breaking analysis from you.  Keep these coming....

Dude, you suggested that we should discount the NY deaths because people had pre-existing health issues. My points: most of our population has pre-existing health issues. We are a vulnerable population. You wanted context. The context is that even if the disease killed people completely at random, you'd still have >50% having some sort of serious pre-existing health issue. We can't ignore it just because it mainly kills people with health issues because... well... that is the majority of people in this country. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

8 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Still isn't a neg and doesn't affect you in the slightest. It is a neutral reaction. I could just a post a bunch of question marks in response to all your absurd posts if you want? 

It's jr. high type passive aggressive.  You wanna take a shot, but try to say you're not.

[Hate 20103]

Wait, the dude responding to the ESPN guy with cancer, also had cancer?
 
(I think some people are misreading the tweets.  Which isn't surprising because twitter sucks and is stupid.  But still...)
 

Exactly. Look at the reply to his tweet above from “sauce”. He is the one who mentions the sense of taste effected.

And the reporter did have undiagnosed non-Hodgkins lymphoma, but his official death cause was ruled as Hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis which is a complication of pneumonia (wiki tells me that as I had no clue about it). I’m not saying corona killed him. I’m just curios if it is worth going back and testing any samples that they may still have from his treatment.

[dcar00 14035]

15 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Still isn't a neg and doesn't affect you in the slightest. It is a neutral reaction. I could just a post a bunch of question marks in response to all your absurd posts if you want? 

yes you could do that.

[utee94 15745]

3 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I would bet it’s more than ‘some percentage’.  Think about how many people haven’t been getting their normal physical therapy, how many may have had heart attacks and didn’t get to call the hospital or get there.   A lot of shit that happens everyday may have been completely overlooked by SiP, and will show to have lead to quite a few deaths.  It’ll be a good percentage of them dying of natural causes due to lack of attention

Yeah, I've been trying to determine what other potential causes of death could contribute to a spike.  What unique circumstances to a pandemic, to stay-at-home, and perhaps even specific to a large city like NY, might be other potential causes.   I'm certain some percentage are COVID related, but I doubt it's 100%, and if not, what else?

Suicide is one, but I'm not sure I buy that as a large part of the mix.

Ailments going untreated, due to fear of or inability to get to, hospitals, is probably more significant.

Then there's accidents that might otherwise not be fatal, but become worse due to isolation or general difficulty in receiving treatment.

Isolation could result in other problems as well, people in distress from hunger, or being trapped in some way?  Without isolation they might be discovered sooner, bit with isolation they're not found until it's too late.

I still think COVID is the largest part of the percentage mix, but I don't believe it's the only factor here.  But there's no way to know right now, and it's possible/likely we'll never really know.

[Dahobbs 17447]

1 minute ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

It's jr. high type passive aggressive.  You wanna take a shot, but try to say you're not.

How is it a shot? It doesn't do anything. I have no compunction in calling someone out and have done so plenty. I use the confusion emotes because it appears there is a miscommunication or misunderstanding, or the posts appear to assert something with no factual support provided. 

[Surly Bevo 24696]

40 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

You have to remember that the CDC numbers there are not complete. Don't look at the totals to date, just look at the weekly numbers. Or, if you have to look at totals, also look at the NY numbers reported for Covid-19 from other sources. 

Week 14 = 3,431 deaths. Week 15 = 4,156 deaths. Week 16 = 3,695 deaths. Now, compare that to historical data:

From 2014-2019, highest week was 2,493 deaths. Average was 1,938 deaths per week. Median was 1,907 deaths.  Average deviation from the mean was 117. 

That means week 14 of 2020 was at minimum a 77% increase from the mean, a 79% increase from the median, and a 37% from the absolute largest reported number form that period of time. Week 15 was a 114% increase from the mean, a 117% increase from the median, and a 66% increase from the largest prior reported number.

Now, let's update those numbers: we know that since the beginning of April New York has reported at least 18,000 deaths associated with Covid-19 (NY total is currently at 24,000, US total on April 1 was 6,300). So, over those 4.28 weeks (30 days), NY suffered on average 4,200 covid reported deaths per week.  That average, (not maximum) is 116% higher than the mean from the previous 6 years, 120% higher than the median, and 68% higher than highest reported total. And that is just Covid-19 deaths, not all deaths. 

I don't know what you mean by not complete.  The site has a column that says % complete they are reporting through week 17, I purposely backed up several weeks in both states they say are complete.  I am looking at totals year to date by adding all the weeks year to date (where the site says that particular week is complete). If the week isn't REALLY complete (like anyone could possibly know that from the outside) not sure why they would say it's 100%.   

Again I'm not saying gospel here, but telling me to remember that "the numbers there are not complete" when the data I pulled says it is doesn't mean much to me unless there is some reason you can give.  Now maybe there is some nuance in counting I am missing but if all precincts have reported in....where's the rest of the vote coming from????  If the numbers are "so far behind" then how is anybody making the claim that we have "X excess deaths".  Either the numbers are behind, or they are not.  

The bottom line to me is that at least what this data is saying is that when you throw all the noise aside and just look at total deaths that at least by what the site is saying is a complete count of all the weeks I am including that Texas is having the same kind of year so far that it had last year and slightly better than the one it had in 2018 (from a gross standpoint, no doubt our population is higher so therefore our percentage of population dying would be slightly lower)  NY is having a worse year than any of the last two year but so far that worse year through early April was about 2K deaths worse than the last few years. 

I have absolutely zero doubt that places like NY, NJ will continue to show that 2020 is worse from a death standpoint, likely over the rest of this year  And I also have no doubt that in those places the pace of death has been accelerated since early March (so for example while week 1-15 may be 2K ahead of prior year pace will allow that week 10-15 may be 4K ahead of pace during that time.....that still isn't 20K or on a pace for that).   We can pick arbitrary times to start the clock on total deaths I guess but I tend to like things to be put in the perspective of bigger picture views.  

 

 

 

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Exactly. Look at the reply to his tweet above from “sauce”. He is the one who mentions the sense of taste effected.

And the reporter did have undiagnosed non-Hodgkins lymphoma, but his official death cause was ruled as Hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis which is a complication of pneumonia (wiki tells me that as I had no clue about it). I’m not saying corona killed him. I’m just curios if it is worth going back and testing any samples that they may still have from his treatment.

Bet you can’t say lymphohistiocytosis 5 times fast

[dcar00 14035]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Bet you can’t say lymphohistiocytosis 5 times fast

you are such a hemophag...

[BabaYaga 15212]

7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Dude, you suggested that we should discount the NY deaths because people had pre-existing health issues. My points: most of our population has pre-existing health issues. We are a vulnerable population. You wanted context. The context is that even if the disease killed people completely at random, you'd still have >50% having some sort of serious pre-existing health issue. We can't ignore it just because it mainly kills people with health issues because... well... that is the majority of people in this country. 

This is your problem right here, dude.....you have no fucking idea what you are talking about.  In no way, shape, or form was I "discounting" NY.  I was illustrating a correlation to infection rates and underlying conditions, which we know well and good about.  The earlier issues was about other health related issues going unchecked and untreated in light of hospitals being locked down and the histrionics of people straying out of their houses.  Staying in line withe larger point that using aggregate death totals is simplistic nonsense when we don't know if we are killing more people than helping them by a de facto denial of medical access.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

10 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

How is it a shot? It doesn't do anything. I have no compunction in calling someone out and have done so plenty. I use the confusion emotes because it appears there is a miscommunication or misunderstanding, or the posts appear to assert something with no factual support provided. 

Stop it. Somebody posts a comment, and you send that up ? You don't respond to why you're confused (if that's what it really is) posting that bizarre little emoji.  

It's not about hurting somebody's rep, it's just a weird, little, passive aggressive, I don't get your post game.  If that's the case have the courtesy to say why you don't get it.

Edited May 1, 2020 by Onboard 2.0

[Trey3216 15325]

8 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Yeah, I've been trying to determine what other potential causes of death could contribute to a spike.  What unique circumstances to a pandemic, to stay-at-home, and perhaps even specific to a large city like NY, might be other potential causes.   I'm certain some percentage are COVID related, but I doubt it's 100%, and if not, what else?

Suicide is one, but I'm not sure I buy that as a large part of the mix.

Ailments going untreated, due to fear of or inability to get to, hospitals, is probably more significant.

Then there's accidents that might otherwise not be fatal, but become worse due to isolation or general difficulty in receiving treatment.

Isolation could result in other problems as well, people in distress from hunger, or being trapped in some way?  Without isolation they might be discovered sooner, bit with isolation they're not found until it's too late.

I still think COVID is the largest part of the percentage mix, but I don't believe it's the only factor here.  But there's no way to know right now, and it's possible/likely we'll never really know.

Exactly.  There’s no doubt some of them are COVID related, but there are myriad other things that isolation can bring about. I’m thinking about people who may have had surgery late last fall/winter that we’re still supposed to be doing PT, but that PT stopped due to isolation.   Lack of exercise following surgery can often turn into a death sentence.  Then the other things I mentioned.   I imagine the aggregate of other things that may not have been taken care of, that normally would, is higher than undocumented COVID deaths, even though COVID may be the larger portion of above normal average deaths.   

Edited May 1, 2020 by Trey3216

[Foosters 17732]

39 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

I don't think any other cities except maybe Chicago or San Fran really have the same potential as NYC.  just my opinion.  I think this will have some seasonality to it for the summer.  Mid May is normal flu(not saying it is normal flu) end time and I think it was why the phases were put in such that places get as close to mid May before opening.  I'm pretty sure Abbott knew that 25% opening of restaurants was not going to get restaurants to open so buys us another 2 weeks to get to mid May.  they will at 50% IMO.

yes people will be risk averse by nature but we have a bunch of 20 to 30 somethings that are still 10 feet tall and bullet proof they can start spending money and working.

 

I agree generally. However, take a look at Los Angeles right now. It seeing about 50-80 deaths PER DAY right now.  1,100 total deaths. This is after being on "safe at home" for 6 weeks. Los Angeles is modern, car-centered city much like Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Atlanta, etc.  I don't see any reason to think that barring some changes in treatment, vaccine, etc., we're not going to see similar numbers (and higher) in cities if we return to normal. I mean, there's no real difference you could point to that would make me think other cities have built-in advantages that LA doesn't. Maybe for some under a hundred deaths a day is acceptable in a city of a couple million if that means things return to normal. I just don't see it right now. Hope I'm wrong.

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Foosters

[XYZ 2154]

In Travis County we are still bound by the stay-at-home order from the County Judge, right?

[Dahobbs 17447]

1 minute ago, Surly Bevo said:

I don't know what you mean by not complete.  The site has a column that says % complete they are reporting through week 17, I purposely backed up several weeks in both states they say are complete.  I am looking at totals year to date by adding all the weeks year to date (where the site says that particular week is complete). If the week isn't REALLY complete (like anyone could possibly know that from the outside) not sure why they would say it's 100%.   

Again I'm not saying gospel here, but telling me to remember that "the numbers there are not complete" when the data I pulled says it is doesn't mean much to me unless there is some reason you can give.  Now maybe there is some nuance in counting I am missing but if all precincts have reported in....where's the rest of the vote coming from????  If the numbers are "so far behind" then how is anybody making the claim that we have "X excess deaths".  Either the numbers are behind, or they are not.  

The bottom line to me is that at least what this data is saying is that when you throw all the noise aside and just look at total deaths that at least by what the site is saying is a complete count of all the weeks I am including that Texas is having the same kind of year so far that it had last year and slightly better than the one it had in 2018 (from a gross standpoint, no doubt our population is higher so therefore our percentage of population dying would be slightly lower)  NY is having a worse year than any of the last two year but so far that worse year through early April was about 2K deaths worse than the last few years. 

I have absolutely zero doubt that places like NY, NJ will continue to show that 2020 is worse from a death standpoint, likely over the rest of this year  And I also have no doubt that in those places the pace of death has been accelerated since early March (so for example while week 1-15 may be 2K ahead of prior year pace will allow that week 10-15 may be 4K ahead of pace during that time.....that still isn't 20K or on a pace for that).   We can pick arbitrary times to start the clock on total deaths I guess but I tend to like things to be put in the perspective of bigger picture views.  

 

 

 

 

Ah,  that column header is misleading. It isn't about complete data. Mouse-over the "Percent Complete" column on the view (as opposed to the raw data download) and you'll see this:

Quote

The NCHS surveillance data based P&I percentage for earlier weeks are continually revised and may increase or decrease as new and updated death certificate data are received from the states by NCHS. This number indicates the percentage of all deaths that are expected to be reported that have been received in the system by the data of the report

So, what that column is telling you is whether the number of reported flu and pneumonia deaths is less than, meets, or exceeds the expected totals for week. It isn't telling you that the data collection is complete.  All it is saying for recent weeks you pulled is that it sees >100% of expected flu and pneumonia deaths. 

Also, the disclaimer when you start the application says:

Quote

Collection of complete data is not expected at the time of initial report, and a reliable percentage of deaths due to P&I is not anticipated at the US Department of Health and Human Services region or state level within this two-week period. The data for earlier weeks are continually revised and the proportion of deaths due to P&I may increase or decrease as new updated death certificate data are received by the NCHS

You can download raw data going back to 2012 (which is what I did).  You'll see the numbers are as I said. In April, NY saw more weekly deaths than it has seen in any week going back to 2012 (and I think realistically going back to 2001, but I don't have the raw data on that). And the difference isn't slight. Again, the absolute largest number of reported weekly deaths in that data pre-covid  was 2,493. The state averaged nearly twice that number in April from Covid deaths alone (4,200 per week). 

[atomheartbevo 89435]

5 hours ago, Loco said:

These dudes had finally cracked the code on the touch-less card processing, which in itself is a minor miracle. 

We have them on newer phones.  Don’t know what it’s called on Android, but IPhones have the Apple Pay feature where your CC/debit info is stored on the phone, you move your phone near the reader, enter in passcodes, pay, and move on, without contact.   Drives me crazy the HEB doesn’t have it working everywhere.   Also, some newer cards have the touch-less stuff as well.  

You’d think all stores would be pushing this out.  

[Dahobbs 17447]

19 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Stop it. Somebody posts a comment, and you send that up ? You don't respond to why you're confused (if that's what it really is) posting that bizarre little emoji.  

It's not about hurting somebody's rep, it's just a weird, little, passive aggressive, I don't get your post game.  If that's the case have the courtesy to say why you don't get it.

Ok child, I don't get your posts. They are stupid. Feel better? Who gives a fuck about the emoji, Jesus. 

[atomheartbevo 89435]

5 hours ago, huge said:

So how do we explain the relatively LOW numbers in Harris County? I know first hand that there have been some lax participants in this shut down.

To what do we contribute this “success”?

Or am I seeing a Shanghai whitewashing of numbers?

Earlier, when HC county had X amount of people in the hospitals for covid symptoms, around a thousand if I recall, their number of actual confirmed cases was lower.   I don’t think it’s whitewashing, just testing issues.   

[Royalfan5 2348]

For your afternoon livestock report, cattle runs through packing plants were off slightly but still ahead of Wednesday's low with a slightly bigger Saturday run expected, and with bigger cattle production should be past the low point if sustained. Hogs were down slightly from yesterday, but 20K off the low, with a bigger Saturday run expected as well. The Tyson Plant in Dakota City, NE continues to make JBS in Grand Island like they've done a good job with 670 of 4000 workers testing positive in the past week. They are expected to run on Monday after being idle the last two weeks. 

[atomheartbevo 89435]

4 hours ago, landman said:

The average flu does this every year as well, albeit over 6-8 months.  And there's a vaccine for it.

We did it in under two months, with hundreds of millions of Americans under some kind of lockdown.   There was literally a tweet posted a few posts above this with that little nugget of information.  

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Ok child, I don't get your posts. They are stupid. Feel better? Who gives a fuck about the emoji, Jesus. 

If nobody cares about it why use it then ?  

[atomheartbevo 89435]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

And laughter is the best medicine. 

At Children’s Hospital it is

[atomheartbevo 89435]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

We oscillate between 47-49 in terms of per capita testing.  How is this continuing to be fucking possible after 7 weeks of lockdown/4 months of forward knowledge? 

I’m blaming aggy.  And OU’s gravitational pool of sucktitude is somehow affecting us as well.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13412]

Amarillo seems to be heating up in terms of new cases especially in Potter County. It doesn't seem like a good time for them to start opening up too many stores or restaurants.

[bigup2dahorns 3343]

[BrazilHorn 6576]

I love all these universities going from "student safety comes first" to "Oh shit, they're on to us, we might have to whack bloated fees and admin layers" and are now moving full steam ahead to open in the fall. The last thing they want is another semester of distance learning to happen as students/parents will realize just how much extra $ they are paying for services/staff that provide little to no value.

 

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

So it appears that we’ve identified employment at espn as a known carcinogen. The guys upthread, jimmy valvano, robin roberts, Stuart Scott, how many others?

trey wingo wasn’t looking too hot during the nfl draft. 
 

it’s the only plausible explanation. 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[Iceman 2640]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

How is it a shot? It doesn't do anything. I have no compunction in calling someone out and have done so plenty. I use the confusion emotes because it appears there is a miscommunication or misunderstanding, or the posts appear to assert something with no factual support provided. 

wrong.  There's no fucking way you are confused on all of those.

Quit being a bitch and just post your take.

[BabaYaga 15212]

1 minute ago, BrazilHorn said:

I love all these universities going from "student safety comes first" to "Oh shit, they're on to us, we might have to whack bloated fees and admin layers" and are now moving full steam ahead to open in the fall. The last thing they want is another semester of distance learning to happen as students/parents will realize just how much extra $ they are paying for services/staff that provide little to no value.

 

Of course, which all but guarantees as well we'll see sports firing back up.  Texas has the revenue to miss a full football season.  Many, many others do not.  

[Iceman 2640]

22 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Amarillo seems to be heating up in terms of new cases especially in Potter County. It doesn't seem like a good time for them to start opening up too many stores or restaurants.

well keeping everything shut down really worked, eh?

 

Which way does the script say to go now?

Edited May 1, 2020 by Iceman

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

3 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I love all these universities going from "student safety comes first" to "Oh shit, they're on to us, we might have to whack bloated fees and admin layers" and are now moving full steam ahead to open in the fall. The last thing they want is another semester of distance learning to happen as students/parents will realize just how much extra $ they are paying for services/staff that provide little to no value.

 

My wife has 3 nieces in expensive private colleges right now, two at very good universities and one in ft worth. The parents have said they will not register their kids in the fall if it’s distance learning, they will do local juco classes instead. At least one school has already sent an email saying that not registering for a semester puts their spot i jeopardy going forward. 
so a game of chicken is developing if online is the fall plan. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

so a game of chicken is developing if online is the fall plan. 

I'm guessing the Consumer is going to win this battle.

[dcar00 14035]

10 minutes ago, Iceman said:

well keeping everything shut down really worked, eh?

 

Which way does the script say to go now?

you are forgetting the "I'm sure they never really shut down out there because it is west texas rube-land" play.  we went through the first 15 scripted plays and are starting over from play #1

Edited May 1, 2020 by dcar00

[Iceman 2640]

Just now, dcar00 said:

you are forgetting the "I'm sure they never really shut down out there because it is west texas rube-land"

like all the folks on the subways?

The urbanites won that one in such a landslide, eh?

[wild_turkey 3153]

WHAT THE FUCK IS THE FUCKING HOLDUP WITH TESTING? 
We oscillate between 47-49 in terms of per capita testing.  How is this continuing to be fucking possible after 7 weeks of lockdown/4 months of forward knowledge? 

Perhaps a stupid question, but are we sure that Texas is deficient in testing?

That was obviously the case a month ago when it was very difficult to get tested, but I haven’t heard any recent reports of Texas citizens with COVID-19 symptoms who are unable to get tested.

Also, we don’t have a large number of people dying from mysterious unknown causes. Our hospitals are relatively empty.

Is it possible instead that we simply don’t have a lot of sick people and our testing is completely appropriate for the current health of our population?

[Brisketexan 104612]

15 minutes ago, Iceman said:

well keeping everything shut down really worked, eh?

 

Which way does the script say to go now?

Well, if "keeping everything shut down" = "but keep lots of people working close together in a cold, moist environment in a meatpacking plant, without following mask or distance protocols" then yeah, you're spot on.  The Panhandle meat plants have been a noticeable hot spot for over a week.

Quote

AMARILLO, Texas (KVII) — ABC 7 reported the outbreak at the JBS Plant has had in Amarillo due to the company busing dozens of workers to and from Amarillo last week. Video of the buses arriving near the Walmart on Georgia showing that proper distancing and mask procedures were not followed was shown.

 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Brisketexan

[Guest Lobo]

On a per capita basis, there's been serious blowups in cases Northern Colorado, Western New Mexico, Southern Idaho, SW Minnesota, Central Ohio, SE Tennessee, and SE Arkansas.  Places not exactly known for their Subway systems.  

[Buzzrock 14871]

Did the blood draw for the serology antibody test this morning. 20 minute doc consult yesterday, 2 minute blood draw today. Will hear in a couple days.

What if the test comes back positive? Well, nothing really. But at least I’ll know. And if we determine the antibodies provide good immunity then yay.

[Guest Lobo]

4 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

 

Perhaps a stupid question, but are we sure that Texas is deficient in testing?

That was obviously the case a month ago when it was very difficult to get tested, but I haven’t heard any recent reports of Texas citizens with COVID-19 symptoms who are unable to get tested.

Also, we don’t have a large number of people dying from mysterious unknown causes. Our hospitals are relatively empty.

Is it possible instead that we simply don’t have a lot of sick people and our testing is completely appropriate for the current health of our population?

 

All good questions, I suppose we'll know in about 2-3 weeks.  Our hospitals have been doing great, thank the Lord.  I just think we didn't do enough proactive testing/tracing considering how many urban areas we have, how many busy airport hubs, and how much Spring Break business we handled.  On a per capita basis, I expected us to be middle of the pack, not dead last.  Simply because of our international traffic and how much of our economy relies on urban areas.  This may be anecdotal, but my wife serves on the board of the second biggest hospital system of Austin and they are woefully short on testing even for their own employees.  One of my very good friends and former business colleague is the head of the Ascension group and they are woefully behind for even their own people.  I do hear great things about Scott & White so yeah, probably the common denominator is if you know me, your hospital group is screwed.  

[bullzak 412]

1 hour ago, Pato del Muerto said:

That’s an accelerant, but between grocery shopping, bars, restaurants, movies, churches, and other gathering places I doubt that mass transit is the overriding factor. 

Have you ever seen Grand Central at rush hour? Mass transit brings more people into tighter quarters than anything on earth, especially in NYC. 

When we get real contact tracing people will really see it. 

I bet the exposure for anyone who rode that in March is much much higher than the national average but you cant prove it. 

[stone oak 639]

9 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

we went through the first 15 scripted plays and are starting over from play #1

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

14 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I'm guessing the Consumer is going to win this battle.

Depends. If the university is the university of Chicago, don’t you think they could make a call and get a replacement that’s all too happy to pay full price for a semester online to get that UC degree?

[GringoSalado 1651]

17 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I'm guessing the Consumer is going to win this battle.

Hope so, they're losing the war. 

[Brisketexan 104612]

4 minutes ago, Lobo said:

On a per capita basis, there's been serious blowups in cases Northern Colorado, Western New Mexico, Southern Idaho, SW Minnesota, Central Ohio, SE Tennessee, and SE Arkansas.  Places not exactly known for their Subway systems.  

au contraire....

[bullzak 412]

26 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

My wife has 3 nieces in expensive private colleges right now, two at very good universities and one in ft worth. The parents have said they will not register their kids in the fall if it’s distance learning, they will do local juco classes instead. At least one school has already sent an email saying that not registering for a semester puts their spot i jeopardy going forward. 
so a game of chicken is developing if online is the fall plan. 

Man, if there were ever a model that is ripe for disruption this is it. 

Hard to justify 60k per year for some online classes. And good luck getting a bunch of college kids to practice social distance over the long run. I wouldn't have done it either.