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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15,212

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Posted
8 minutes ago, utee94 said:

But Sweden's intentional trek toward herd immunity was ALWAYS going to result in more deaths, sooner.  Comparing them in absolute or per capita or % of expected deaths, while we're still merely halfway through the first quarter, doesn't make any sense.  We won't know for another 12-18 months whether or not Sweden's strategy paid off, it's possible that it won't.  But attempting to make any comparisons NOW is worse than useless, because it's also misleading.

My point exactly.  Hunkering down is pushing the curve out.  Hunkering down with a litany of people sneaking around and doing what they want.  That's another matter.  

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dcar00

dcar00 14,035

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Just now, BabaYaga said:

My point exactly.  Hunkering down is pushing the curve out.  Hunkering down with a litany of people sneaking around and doing what they want.  That's another matter.  

like those damn rube churchgoers. screwin everything up everywhere for 1000's of years.

Sweden gonna ride the R0 lightnin'!

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104,612

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, utee94 said:

But Sweden's intentional trek toward herd immunity was ALWAYS going to result in more deaths, sooner.  Comparing them in absolute or per capita or % of expected deaths, while we're still merely halfway through the first quarter, doesn't make any sense.  We won't know for another 12-18 months whether or not Sweden's strategy paid off, it's possible that it won't.  But attempting to make any comparisons NOW is worse than useless, because it's also misleading.

What you're stating is that 1) the rise in percentage of expected deaths is relevant when compared to 2) total infection rate.  And that IS relevant in terms of "was the approach a good one in terms of balancing the economic impacts versus reduction in infection/death."  But it's not relevant in terms of "flattening the curve" -- that's not a function of comparative rate as it is a raw number.

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,435

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2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

So it appears that we’ve identified employment at espn as a known carcinogen. The guys upthread, jimmy valvano, robin roberts, Stuart Scott, how many others?

trey wingo wasn’t looking too hot during the nfl draft. 

it’s the only plausible explanation. 

It is a curse.  For dropping all of the cool sports like World’s Strongest Man, the lumberjack competitions, etc. in favor of idiots spending more time talking about a game, than the game took to complete.   

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,435

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2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

My wife has 3 nieces in expensive private colleges right now, two at very good universities and one in ft worth. The parents have said they will not register their kids in the fall if it’s distance learning, they will do local juco classes instead. At least one school has already sent an email saying that not registering for a semester puts their spot i jeopardy going forward. 
so a game of chicken is developing if online is the fall plan. 

Meanwhile, there are parents looking for cheap online accredited universities and aggy is all

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JBJ

JBJ 3,649

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Posted

 

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It is a curse.  For dropping all of the cool sports like World’s Strongest Man, the lumberjack competitions, etc. in favor of idiots spending more time talking about a game, than the game took to complete.   

It'd be nice if they actually talked about the games 

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atomheartbevo

atomheartbevo 89,435

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

The only unique thing is the number.

If 300 people in Bent Dick, Oklahoma regularly pack into a church, hug, shake hands, and shout a joyful noise to the lord, they're gonna pass around a respiratory virus, too.  If they pack into the Bent Dick City Hall for a heated council meeting about the new fire hydrants, same thing.  IF they all work together in the same meat processing plant, same thing.  And on a per-capita basis, the Bent Dick infection rate can easily surpass NYC's.

It gets worse.  That little town meeting they had last week about changing the name to Alternatively Angled Richard, that ended up in screaming, shoving, and hair pulling?    15 out of 43 attendees have so far tested positive.  

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clapclapclap

clapclapclap 9,000

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Posted (edited)

NM governor circles the wagons to keep the natives out of Gallup this weekend (poll numbers bad?):

 

https://www.krqe.com/health/coronavirus-new-mexico/governor-michelle-lujan-grisham-authorizes-gallup-lockdown/

While most of the state starts to see a loosening up of the shutdown, the Governor has put Gallup on a lock down. At noon, New Mexico State Police set up checkpoints blocking off the city to keep the outsiders out, as the Coronavirus continues to skyrocket on the nearby Navajo Nation.

This lockdown means entrances and exits in and out of Gallup are blocked off. Unless you have a Gallup address, you’re not getting in.

“People traveling through the state of New Mexico on I-40, they’re not going to be allowed into the city,” says Lt. Mark Soriano of NMSP.

The Department of Transportation set up 11-checkpoints and road blocks at all points of entry into Gallup. Each entry will have NMSP and the Army National Guard there to direct people.

Just yesterday, the mayor of Gallup sent a letter to the Governor asking for the lock down under the Riot Control Act. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham quickly responded and agreed.

This means all essential businesses must close from 5:00 p.m. to 8:00 a.m. and no one is allowed into the city. NMSP says travelers heading through New Mexico cannot stop in Gallup for gas, food, or a hotel room.

Senator George Munoz says this is something that needed to happen weeks ago as McKinley County’s number of confirmed cases kept growing.

“What we don’t want you doing is buying two 55′ TVs and then going back to the reservation with four people in your vehicle,” says Sen. George Munoz (D) Gallup.

Right now, McKinley County has more than a thousand confirmed cases with more than 500 of them on the Navajo Nation.

NMSP say if you are trying to get into Gallup, you need to show proof that you are a resident. This lock down ends on Monday at noon.

 

https://kvia.com/news/new-mexico/2020/05/01/new-mexico-governor-orders-lockdown-of-hardest-hit-virus-city-in-the-state/

“...I recognize this request is unusual and constitutes a drastic measure, and the emergency powers set out under the Riot Control Act should be invoked sparingly,” said Gallup Mayor Louis Bonaguidi. “However, the Covid-19 outbreak in the city of Gallup is a crisis of the highest order. Immediate action is necessary.”

Violations are punishable as misdemeanors on a first offense and as a felony on the second offense.

Gallup is a hub for basic household supplies and liquor sales for people living in remote stretches of the Navajo Nation and indigenous Zuni Pueblo. The Navajo Nation has imposed evening and weekend curfews on the reservation spanning portions of New Mexico, Arizona and Utah.

McKinley County has at least 1,027 confirmed cases of COVID-19, accounting for more than 30% of cases in New Mexico. It has far more infections than counties with major population centers such as Albuquerque, Rio Rancho or Las Cruces.

The infection trend has shown no sign of flattening, according to state health officials.

Edited by clapclapclap
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elfenix

elfenix 34,171

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Posted
9 hours ago, huge said:

So how do we explain the relatively LOW numbers in Harris County? I know first hand that there have been some lax participants in this shut down.

To what do we contribute this “success”?

Or am I seeing a Shanghai whitewashing of numbers?

a few weeks ago NBC reported that, at the time, there were about as many people in hospitals in the SETX area being treated for covid symptoms as had tested positive for it to that date.  we've undercounted. 

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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8,799

Posted
Posted
NM governor circles the wagons to keep the natives out of Gallup this weekend (poll numbers bad?):  

https://www.krqe.com/health/coronavirus-new-mexico/governor-michelle-lujan-grisham-authorizes-gallup-lockdown/

 

While most of the state starts to see a loosening up of the shutdown, the Governor has put Gallup on a lock down. At noon, New Mexico State Police set up checkpoints blocking off the city to keep the outsiders out, as the Coronavirus continues to skyrocket on the nearby Navajo Nation.

This lockdown means entrances and exits in and out of Gallup are blocked off. Unless you have a Gallup address, you’re not getting in.

“People traveling through the state of New Mexico on I-40, they’re not going to be allowed into the city,” says Lt. Mark Soriano of NMSP.

The Department of Transportation set up 11-checkpoints and road blocks at all points of entry into Gallup. Each entry will have NMSP and the Army National Guard there to direct people.

Just yesterday, the mayor of Gallup sent a letter to the Governor asking for the lock down under the Riot Control Act. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham quickly responded and agreed.

This means all essential businesses must close from 5:00 p.m. to 8:00 a.m. and no one is allowed into the city. NMSP says travelers heading through New Mexico cannot stop in Gallup for gas, food, or a hotel room.

Senator George Munoz says this is something that needed to happen weeks ago as McKinley County’s number of confirmed cases kept growing.

“What we don’t want you doing is buying two 55′ TVs and then going back to the reservation with four people in your vehicle,” says Sen. George Munoz (D) Gallup.

Right now, McKinley County has more than a thousand confirmed cases with more than 500 of them on the Navajo Nation.

NMSP say if you are trying to get into Gallup, you need to show proof that you are a resident. This lock down ends on Monday at noon.

 https://kvia.com/news/new-mexico/2020/05/01/new-mexico-governor-orders-lockdown-of-hardest-hit-virus-city-in-the-state/

 

“...I recognize this request is unusual and constitutes a drastic measure, and the emergency powers set out under the Riot Control Act should be invoked sparingly,” said Gallup Mayor Louis Bonaguidi. “However, the Covid-19 outbreak in the city of Gallup is a crisis of the highest order. Immediate action is necessary.”

Violations are punishable as misdemeanors on a first offense and as a felony on the second offense.

Gallup is a hub for basic household supplies and liquor sales for people living in remote stretches of the Navajo Nation and indigenous Zuni Pueblo. The Navajo Nation has imposed evening and weekend curfews on the reservation spanning portions of New Mexico, Arizona and Utah.

McKinley County has at least 1,027 confirmed cases of COVID-19, accounting for more than 30% of cases in New Mexico. It has far more infections than counties with major population centers such as Albuquerque, Rio Rancho or Las Cruces.

The infection trend has shown no sign of flattening, according to state health officials.

That’s insane... i-40 is the definition of poverty all the way through NM. Will those who get killed for having to drive off the beaten path for gas be counted as covid deaths?
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JBJ

JBJ 3,649

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

These guys are saying an R0 of 5.7

The baseline for my model is ~6.3. 

The serial interval (average time from getting the virus to giving it away) is usually the point of debate, but we know how fast it spreads.  Bear in mind this is the spread when people were barely aware it even exists.  It's much lower now even in fully open areas.

Edited by JBJ
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MNLonghornFUKM

MNLonghornFUKM 8,799

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Posted
The baseline for my model is ~6.3. 
The serial interval (average time from getting the virus to giving it away) is usually the point of debate, but we know how fast it spreads.  Bear in mind this is the spread when people were barely aware it even exists.  It's much lower now even in fully open areas.

Insane stuff
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XYZ

XYZ 2,154

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Posted
3 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Anyone have an answer for this?

I know there was a little side discussion on one of the threads after Abbot's press conference about the legality of the TX governor overriding local judges. Maybe I just didn't see the end of that discussion.  The last I saw was it was ambiguous with both county and governor having language that seemed to put them in control.    The executive order GA-18 actually suspends the part of the Texas Government Code that gave Counties their authority.  "I hereby suspend Sections 418.1015(b) and 418.10$ of the Texas Government Code  ..."    Can he do that?

On the austintexas.gov site, under the 'Current Orders', it still lists the April 13th Stay At Home order (from both Austin and Travis) that runs through May 8th.

So which is it?

This is how I understand it, but it would be nice if the surly lawyers would opine on this matter. The Governor issued a state-wide stay-at-home order. The Travis County Judge issued a county-wide stay-at-home order. The Governor’s order expired on 4/30, but the state order expiring doesn’t have any effect on the county-wide order. Abbott didn’t issue a subsequent order that says “I declare that people don’t have to stay at home”. So IMHO the county order is in full effect. Another thing that would be nice is if the f’n County Judge would clarify.

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Trey3216

Trey3216 15,325

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Posted
1 hour ago, clapclapclap said:

NM governor circles the wagons to keep the natives out of Gallup this weekend (poll numbers bad?):

 

https://www.krqe.com/health/coronavirus-new-mexico/governor-michelle-lujan-grisham-authorizes-gallup-lockdown/

While most of the state starts to see a loosening up of the shutdown, the Governor has put Gallup on a lock down. At noon, New Mexico State Police set up checkpoints blocking off the city to keep the outsiders out, as the Coronavirus continues to skyrocket on the nearby Navajo Nation.

This lockdown means entrances and exits in and out of Gallup are blocked off. Unless you have a Gallup address, you’re not getting in.

“People traveling through the state of New Mexico on I-40, they’re not going to be allowed into the city,” says Lt. Mark Soriano of NMSP.

The Department of Transportation set up 11-checkpoints and road blocks at all points of entry into Gallup. Each entry will have NMSP and the Army National Guard there to direct people.

Just yesterday, the mayor of Gallup sent a letter to the Governor asking for the lock down under the Riot Control Act. Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham quickly responded and agreed.

This means all essential businesses must close from 5:00 p.m. to 8:00 a.m. and no one is allowed into the city. NMSP says travelers heading through New Mexico cannot stop in Gallup for gas, food, or a hotel room.

Senator George Munoz says this is something that needed to happen weeks ago as McKinley County’s number of confirmed cases kept growing.

“What we don’t want you doing is buying two 55′ TVs and then going back to the reservation with four people in your vehicle,” says Sen. George Munoz (D) Gallup.

Right now, McKinley County has more than a thousand confirmed cases with more than 500 of them on the Navajo Nation.

NMSP say if you are trying to get into Gallup, you need to show proof that you are a resident. This lock down ends on Monday at noon.

 

https://kvia.com/news/new-mexico/2020/05/01/new-mexico-governor-orders-lockdown-of-hardest-hit-virus-city-in-the-state/

“...I recognize this request is unusual and constitutes a drastic measure, and the emergency powers set out under the Riot Control Act should be invoked sparingly,” said Gallup Mayor Louis Bonaguidi. “However, the Covid-19 outbreak in the city of Gallup is a crisis of the highest order. Immediate action is necessary.”

Violations are punishable as misdemeanors on a first offense and as a felony on the second offense.

Gallup is a hub for basic household supplies and liquor sales for people living in remote stretches of the Navajo Nation and indigenous Zuni Pueblo. The Navajo Nation has imposed evening and weekend curfews on the reservation spanning portions of New Mexico, Arizona and Utah.

McKinley County has at least 1,027 confirmed cases of COVID-19, accounting for more than 30% of cases in New Mexico. It has far more infections than counties with major population centers such as Albuquerque, Rio Rancho or Las Cruces.

The infection trend has shown no sign of flattening, according to state health officials.

Aye Yi Yi, Katy 

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31,275

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Posted (edited)

There's a discussion of that in the last 2-3 pages of the Texas Re-Opening thread.

Bottom line is, the statute gives the governor and local govt. officials (mayors and county judges) the same powers to declare emergencies and regulate the coming and going of people and occupancy of premises.  When they have different orders/rules/regulations, there's a conflict.

The statute does not say who "trumps" the other, nor does it give the governor power to suspend parts of itself.

The conventional wisdom is that Texas is a weak governor state and the governor has no power not explicitly granted him so he can't do either of those things simply by being governor.  But that still doesn't entirely resolve the conflict.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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XYZ

XYZ 2,154

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Posted
7 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

There's a discussion of that in the last 2-3 pages of the Texas Re-Opening thread.

Bottom line is, the statute gives the governor and local govt. officials (mayors and county judges) the same powers to declare emergencies and regulate the coming and going of people and occupancy of premises.  When they have different orders/rules/regulations, there's a conflict.

The statute does not say who "trumps" the other, nor does it give the governor power to suspend parts of itself.

The conventional wisdom is that Texas is a weak governor state and the governor has no power not explicitly granted him so he can't do either of those things simply by being governor.  But that still doesn't entirely resolve the conflict.

But what conflict is there? Travis County is under a stay-at-home order. The Governor didn’t order anything that conflicts with the county order. Or did he?

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JimmyJames

JimmyJames 12,271

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Posted
3 hours ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

Anyone have an answer for this?

I know there was a little side discussion on one of the threads after Abbot's press conference about the legality of the TX governor overriding local judges. Maybe I just didn't see the end of that discussion.  The last I saw was it was ambiguous with both county and governor having language that seemed to put them in control.    The executive order GA-18 actually suspends the part of the Texas Government Code that gave Counties their authority.  "I hereby suspend Sections 418.1015(b) and 418.10$ of the Texas Government Code  ..."    Can he do that?

On the austintexas.gov site, under the 'Current Orders', it still lists the April 13th Stay At Home order (from both Austin and Travis) that runs through May 8th.

So which is it?

Nobody really knows the answer, including the surlyhorns internet lawyers or even the lawyers for the governor himself. Because if they did the governor in language written by his lawyers would have clearly said so in his latest order.

The legislature has passed laws giving the governor extreme powers in a statewide disaster and the local authorities extreme powers in a local disaster. Abbot is acting under a presumption that because he is a state authority that he has power over the local authorities and to suspend laws giving them that power,  but there appears to be no basis for this assertion. 

The governor does not have the power to suspend a law in place for the legislature signed by a previous governor, unless the lege said he could. They didn’t but that is exactly what he is claiming he has the right to do. 

This is an unprecedented situation. One could argue that the governor doesn’t have the authority over what he is trying to do. 

The problem is this isn’t some law school theoretical situation or something that can slowly wind its way through the courts. It has life or death consequences in real time. Therefore I hope the governor knows what he is doing.

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blacklab

blacklab 11,850

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cheeseweasel, onboard2.0, roy beanbag, babayaga 

are taking some time off for personal attacks and politics in this thread. 

NOBODY FUCKING CARES ABOUT YOUR FUCKING POLITICAL OPINIONS 

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Shaddie

Shaddie 1,638

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, blacklab said:

cheeseweasel, onboard2.0, roy beanbag, babayaga 

are taking some time off for personal attacks and politics in this thread. 

NOBODY FUCKING CARES ABOUT YOUR FUCKING POLITICAL OPINIONS 

Free at last, free at last, thank god almighty free at last. 

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XYZ

XYZ 2,154

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Posted
19 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Any cliff notes?

It seems like an extreme coincidence that a coronavirus would pop up right in the vicinity of a lab that studies...coronavirus. Also the assertion that covid-19 couldn’t have been man-made is baseless.

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Deej

Deej 76,567

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Posted
12 minutes ago, XYZ said:

It seems like an extreme coincidence that a coronavirus would pop up right in the vicinity of a lab that studies...coronavirus. Also the assertion that covid-19 couldn’t have been man-made is baseless.

Racist. 

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10,929

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Posted
37 minutes ago, blacklab said:

cheeseweasel, onboard2.0, roy beanbag, babayaga 

are taking some time off for personal attacks and politics in this thread. 

NOBODY FUCKING CARES ABOUT YOUR FUCKING POLITICAL OPINIONS 

Time off for politics is one thing, but it'll be a cold day in hell when I stop attacking posters in a deeply personal way.

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