Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Bevo 13,870]

6 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

So kinda like a cruise ship or aircraft carrier? 

How are the Azores and Bermuda doing?

[Ted Lange 16,408]

Lina Hidalgo>>>>>>> Trump.

 

[Constant 6,885]

Had an arrestee that needed ICU care tonight and we have to stay with them, so I made my first trip into ICU since covid blew up. I already respected the hell out of the nursing profession, but damned if I didn’t find a higher level without even knowing it was possible. Pretty surreal experience; felt like I was in a movie. Watching them work in concert with each other was incredible. Once again, hats off to the medical professionals working in these environments every day. My asshole was tighter than Mack Brown’s walking down the Cotton Bowl tunnel. 

[ouflak 60]

5 hours ago, justhookit said:

Cross posted a few times but don’t y’all worry, Port A has got this. Mind you I really don’t have a problem with that many people on the beach, and they were pretty far apart. I just don’t like them packing into the convenience, grocery, liquor stores etc. Restaurants  are getting overrun but trying to keep the 25% rule and making people wait in the parking lot.

These pictures were later in the day and don’t do it justice. The beach was parked 2 deep in lots of stretches. It’s crowded like mid-summer and close to holiday weekends. First 2 pics are from today and the last one is from 3 weeks ago for comparison.

Those first two pics aren't really showing the bikini pics that would do them justice in truly demonstrating how crowded things actually are.

[Telegraph_it 3,379]

4 hours ago, Hmbre97 said:

 Don't let things like common sense and science get between me and muh freedom! Masks are tyranny and people who don't want hundreds of thousands of people to die are just stupid lib sheep!

 

Your rants listing off stereotypes and name calling add a lot to this thread. 

[Viper 12,219]

21 hours ago, utee94 said:

So did anyone dine-in at a restaurant last night?  I'm curious to hear how it went. 

I did. Everyone wearing masks, few tables and we're spread out. There were only a couple of other diners but it was outside the lunch rush. It was nice to be somewhat normal again. 

[Enchubben 5,600]

4 hours ago, Hmbre97 said:

However, opening restaurants for dine in and retail/movie theaters is fucking stupid.  

These businesses (keeping in mind many are choosing not to open yet) are opening in limited capacity and phasing back in.  
You don’t agree, great. Feel free to stay holed up inside your home until you feel comfortable returning.  
 

There are many of us under 65 with no pre existing conditions and with no symptoms that want to go back to living so we don’t end up broke and homeless in another month or two. That doesn’t make us stupid.

[Royalfan5 2,384]

7 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I can speak for Minnesota and ND... both are doing twice the daily testing compared to all of April. ND isn’t growing too much besides Fargo area. Minnesota is has seen days And nearly triple since last week.


Feel like April was just a waste of time data wise as we couldn’t get tests to absolutely everybody who needed it.

In Lincoln we’ve went from 115 a day available to 300 a day, and they’re getting through the packing plants now too. It seems like we probably peaked in raw numbers this week too. 

[Armybrat 41,393]

17 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

11:10 am i went to salt grass (not because I like it but because it was one of the few places open). 

All the wait staff was wearing masks- everyone was very friendly- they seemed happy to be there. Joked around with the host and the waiter- capacity was clearly less than 25% (but that could have been Because it was 11:10 am- there weren’t any tables roped off but they also weren’t sitting people next to each other) at the time I was there. 

I paid $50 for a mediocre ribeye ($28 for the steak 22 for the tip) ate paid and left inside of 30 minutes and walked out to a glorious blue sky and sun shining and comfortable temperature. It was the best day I’ve had in some time (went to work for 3rd time in 2 months- I have an office by myself that’s entirely self contained with nobody around me- but hadn’t been going to work in solidarity with wife to take care of the kids- but my limit has been reached). 

Probably won’t go out again to eat until it’s with my family and more restaurants open, but I wanted to take advantage on the first day I could. 

We ordered curbside take out at the Round Rock Salt Grass yesterday afternoon at 2:55. They said it’ll be ready at 3:30.

Rolled into the parking slot at 3:30 and called. They said not ready yet, be a a few minutes. 20 minutes later they bring out an order for a truck that had pulled in 15 minutes after us. At 4 pm another truck parks by us and they bring out his order right away, so I flag down the waiter and inquire about my $30 order. He brought it out right away. Tipped him $15.

of course both orders (cfs & chicken tenders) were really cold, but were very good warmed up. Guess my order was misplaced for close to a half hour after we checked in. Typical luck for me.

I get being short-handed, but the dine in was very slow, and it was a bit disconcerting that latecomers were getting their orders immediately.

Chuy’s next door was doing a very brisk curbside service. Too bad they don’t have a drive thru window.

 

[Wulaw Horn 19,588]

7 hours ago, Hmbre97 said:

Stupid confirmed.

 

We've already eclipsed the deadliest flu season in the last decade (which is 4-5 months long and spread all across the country) vs 2 months of COVID deaths with most being in a few hot spots.

But keep fucking the "less deadly than the flu" chicken.

 

SIP has slowed the spread but we're back at square one now because a bunch of gun toting retards want to protest their right to enjoy shitty restaurant food surrounded by fellow retards rather than suffer the extreme burden of eating the same shit at their house. Muricah!

I could have perhaps been a bit more clear when talking about the flu and that possibly could have kept you from getting your parties in a wad (probably not) but when I said “less deadly than the flu” I meant- likely kill percentage if I was to actually get this thing- not total deaths by everyone in America. 

It’s beyond obvious that this sucker spreads bigtime. However- if the actual kill percentage is .1-.2 like a lot of these new studies are suggesting, with the super lethality of killing olds, that makes me less likely to die if I get this vs die if I get the flu as a 41 year old. 

Like I said though in my original post you quoted- we don’t do respectful disagreement anymore, nor do we do live and let live.  If it makes you feel better to name call then go right ahead and do it. I’m pretty confident in my intelligence. I’m pretty confident in my lack of likelihood to die, and I’m pretty sure it pointless to lock myself in a cage for years when I figure at some point in time I’m going to get his virus 

That’s the biggest difference between us I guess- you seem to think it’s likely you can avoid getting this thing. I don’t think that’s likely. If I’m right then it makes sense to roll the dice right now as opposed to waiting another 6 months/year/2 years looking for a vaccine that’s never coming or a looooong away. That and I bet I’m more comfortable with the idea of dying than you are- of this thing, or heart attack, or cancer, or car crash or whatever come for me. 

[Bevo 13,870]

It looks like the Azores and Bermuda are doing fine. I checked on Fiji and they are doing great as well. So, New Zealand is not alone. Yap is doing great and it is a lot closer to Wuhan than we are. I am very happy for the Yapanese and Yapsters and really I just want to give a Yapa dapa doo to the Yapite government and really to most of Micronesia for doing their part in keeping the coronavirus at bay.

[BrickHorn 18,447]

14 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

if the actual kill percentage is .1-.2 like a lot of these new studies are suggesting

It’s not. It’s much higher. The New York State data establishes an absolute floor at 0.12% and the highest estimate I’ve seen for the infected rate in NY (antibody tests calculated 5-20%) would mean the fatality rate is between 0.6 - 2.4%. 

[clapclapclap 9,000]

18 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

See that potter county reported 112 new cases today.  That would be the equivalent of Harris County reporting 4500 cases. Sounds like a serious issue in Amarillo.  Are there some old folks homes or meat packing plants that are leading to the high numbers?

Makes sense that a place with feedlots and slaughterhouses would try herd immunity.

[Wulaw Horn 19,588]

3 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

It’s not. It’s much higher. The New York State data establishes an absolute floor at 0.12% and the highest estimate I’ve seen for the infected rate in NY (antibody tests calculated 5-20%) would mean the fatality rate is between 0.6 - 2.4%. 

So .12 obviously fits between .1-.2 that I mentioned. 

Now- let’s compare apples to apples and compare likelihood of killing a healthy-ish 41 year old. 

Or- likelihood that my 4, 7 and 9 year old die (which- as of last time I checked in NYC we have 0 cases of them dying). 

My guess is that my odds of getting this and dying are somewhere on the order of 1/1000 or so. If you are right and it’s something like .5 at the absolute worst for me that’s what- 1/200?

Those are odds I’m willing to take, especially when sitting at home and doing nothing probably leaves me with a pretty similar chance of dying at some point in time anyway. 

If you want to say- hey- I’m so afraid of this bug that I’m going to stay inside at all times except when I drive to Heb for curbside in my hazmat suit that’s your call and I won’t even point and laugh. I just don’t think that’s what government should mandate now that the curve is flattened and it’s pretty clear out hospitals are not going to be overwhelmed. 

But instead- we are actually killing hospital capacity by cancelling elective surgeries and leading to layoffs and closures. This just doesn’t make any sense to me. 

My in-laws are high risk for this thing. They are not going to resume life until there is a treatment protocol or a vaccine. I figure worst case I’m 1/200 for dying but my father in law that’s old with diabetes and heart problems and my MIL that’s old and down a kidney have more like a 1/5-1/10 chance of dying if they get this. If those were my odds I damn sure would not venture out into the world nor entertain guests we we will have a FaceTime relationship with them for months (years?) which is sad. 

[stork642 4,511]

11 hours ago, EuroHorn said:

The satellites take everyone’s temperature 

Hopefully not via the rectum.  Maybe this is how all those UFO stories got started. 

[BrickHorn 18,447]

1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So .12 obviously fits between .1-.2 that I mentioned. 

0.12 is only the CFR if 100% of New York has been infected. No study has estimated that more than 20% of New Yorkers have been infected. Thus, the lowest fatality rate supported by any such study is 0.6%. Which is three times higher than the top end of your range.

[Enchubben 5,600]

2 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

0.12 is only the CFR if 100% of New York has been infected. No study has estimated that more than 20% of New Yorkers have been infected. Thus, the lowest fatality rate supported by any such study is 0.6%. Which is three times higher than the top end of your range.

What does Texas or Houston look like in comparison? Is CFR deaths over positive tests? (Probably a dumb question this far into this) 

[Lat22 4,086]

22 hours ago, utee94 said:

So did anyone dine-in at a restaurant last night?  I'm curious to hear how it went. 

We did. We sat at the bar at the Cajun Greek in Galveston just like we always do. The bartenders wore masks and gloves but otherwise it seemed normal. 

[BrickHorn 18,447]

1 minute ago, Enchubben said:

What does Texas or Houston look like in comparison? Is CFR deaths over positive tests? (Probably a dumb question this far into this) 

CFR is deaths / infections. But to answer your question: Texans are immune. This disease only affects New Yorkers.

[Wulaw Horn 19,588]

10 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

0.12 is only the CFR if 100% of New York has been infected. No study has estimated that more than 20% of New Yorkers have been infected. Thus, the lowest fatality rate supported by any such study is 0.6%. Which is three times higher than the top end of your range.

I misunderstood what you meant by absolute floor. I was assuming you took something like the most optimistic study and used it as your absolute floor- not total number of all New Yorkers. Gotcha. 

Still, my point remains- I’m not talking about a generic kill rate for the world, I’m talking about as it relates to me in doing my personal risk assessment. 

Stripping out all the deaths of the very old and very sick gets you to a much much much lower percentage. 

I interacted, on the day I went out to lunch as described, with 7 people total (4 of them  in my family- 3 at the restaurant- none of them up close and personal. Yesterday added zero people to that list. Today I’m liable to add zero people to that list. 

I’ve also not done any curbside take out but I can’t see how there would be any less interaction there than I had. My 3 interactions at the restaurant were with a host that was never any closer than about 10 feet- a general manager that thanked me for coming in and stood 10 feet away, and my waiter who took my order from 6 or so feet away, and put the food on my table from 6 feet away from me and let me move the plate to myself.  

We both touched my credit card but that’s the case with a drive through or to go as well I would guess, right?  

Edited May 3, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[htown85 159]

I love the confidence people have that releasing the SIP orders will lead to ultimate destruction and more shut-downs. They are so confident that they feel compelled to throw in insults and name-calling into arguments.  This is an unprecedented event and no one knows the end of this thing.  That said...if anything, you could say the country overreacted.  Hospitals were built that were never used.  The hospital bed capacity in Texas is over 28,000 and beds needed is 1,200.  ICU bed capacity is over 2,200 and beds needed is 300.  Even if we went back to pre-COVID activities I wonder if we would hit the limits?  source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas

I understand the fear of reopening given what has been reported from the start, so I don't think anyone is an idiot for wanting to play it safe.  By all means, don't do anything that makes you uncomfortable.  The people I can't stand are the ones who are calling others idiots/trash for wanting to reopen or for not wearing a mask (if it's optional) and whatever other insults they feel like throwing out there.  

I don't know what data to trust anymore because the initial models were so far off (in a good way, we never got close to their predicted crisis) but the data seems to support reopening.  Yes, cases are still increasing - but that will happen regardless with increased spread and testing.  Hospital capacity hasn't been a problem in weeks and it was only ever a problem in 3 parts of the world - Wuhan, Lombardy, and NYC.  Given where we are today, it seems impossible for 90% of the US (exception is dense populations) to ever get to the critical points in time those 3 locations experienced.  It would be like Nebraska fearing a tsunami...it won't happen.  Meanwhile 1/4 of the country is unemployed...which gets back to my original point: if the data supports reopening, why are the people receiving insults the ones who are supported by the data?

[clapclapclap 9,000]

I hope @Thetexashammer is ok.  Wasn't he stuck in northern Italy?  Suddenly quit posting a month ago.

[BrickHorn 18,447]

8 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Still, my point remains- I’m not talking about a generic kill rate for the world, I’m talking about as it relates to me in doing my personal risk assessment. 

I believe it’s on the order of 1.5 out of 1,000 for someone in their 40s (I dug those stats up Friday but don’t have them handy). Much lower than overall CFR, but higher than the overall CFR for flu and thus almost certainly much higher than a 40-something’s risk of dying from flu.

So COVID is not less deadly than flu in terms of individual risk. Not even close. 

Edited May 3, 2020 by BrickHorn

[Enchubben 5,600]

3 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

CFR is deaths / infections. But to answer your question: Texans are immune. This disease only affects New Yorkers.

Thank God, New Yorkers are the worst.

Just seems like the population density and expanse of initial outbreak prior to any measures would play into this and therefore recovery from the measures will look different and be on different timelines in different areas across the US. Texas (and other areas) may be ready while NYC less so.
 

 

[El Diablo 4,232]

2 hours ago, Bevo said:

It looks like the Azores and Bermuda are doing fine. I checked on Fiji and they are doing great as well. So, New Zealand is not alone. Yap is doing great and it is a lot closer to Wuhan than we are. I am very happy for the Yapanese and Yapsters and really I just want to give a Yapa dapa doo to the Yapite government and really to most of Micronesia for doing their part in keeping the coronavirus at bay.

Yap was a choice duty station once upon a time. The US maintained a Loran station there and other than keeping that running there wasn't much to do outside of smoke weed and go scuba diving in some of the most pristine waters on the planet.

[Wulaw Horn 19,588]

I’m a male. It’s possible I could get breast cancer.  Breast cancer happens to about 300,000 people a year. Should I get a mammogram? 

Of course not- it’s 100 times more likely (assuming quick google research is correct from Mayo center) that my wife will get it than that I will get it. Similarly, lumping 85 year olds with pneumonia in with me in a CFR doesn’t tell me anything about what my risk calculus is. 

We cant shut down America until there’s a cure. It’s completely unworkable. Now is as good a time as any to reopen and go about our lives, while monitoring to make sure that the hospital systems are not overwhelmed. 

The cool thing about that decision is that if you want to isolate you can. Absolutely nobody is stopping you. And I’d completely encourage it if you are high risk. It’s a really really really good idea. Just like getting a mammogram if you are a 40 year old plus woman or a prostate exam if you are a 40+ male. It’s a responsible solution to an increased risk factor. But I didn’t bend over and ask doctor jelly fingers to check out my prostate at 25 years old. 

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

10 minutes ago, htown85 said:

I love the confidence people have that releasing the SIP orders will lead to ultimate destruction and more shut-downs. They are so confident that they feel compelled to throw in insults and name-calling into arguments.  This is an unprecedented event and no one knows the end of this thing.  That said...if anything, you could say the country overreacted.  Hospitals were built that were never used.  The hospital bed capacity in Texas is over 28,000 and beds needed is 1,200.  ICU bed capacity is over 2,200 and beds needed is 300.  Even if we went back to pre-COVID activities I wonder if we would hit the limits?  source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas

I understand the fear of reopening given what has been reported from the start, so I don't think anyone is an idiot for wanting to play it safe.  By all means, don't do anything that makes you uncomfortable.  The people I can't stand are the ones who are calling others idiots/trash for wanting to reopen or for not wearing a mask (if it's optional) and whatever other insults they feel like throwing out there.  

I don't know what data to trust anymore because the initial models were so far off (in a good way, we never got close to their predicted crisis) but the data seems to support reopening.  Yes, cases are still increasing - but that will happen regardless with increased spread and testing.  Hospital capacity hasn't been a problem in weeks and it was only ever a problem in 3 parts of the world - Wuhan, Lombardy, and NYC.  Given where we are today, it seems impossible for 90% of the US (exception is dense populations) to ever get to the critical points in time those 3 locations experienced.  It would be like Nebraska fearing a tsunami...it won't happen.  Meanwhile 1/4 of the country is unemployed...which gets back to my original point: if the data supports reopening, why are the people receiving insults the ones who are supported by the data?

You come here often big boy ??  Insults for an opposing view point ?  Here on The Surly ??!!  Get the hell outta here with that shit .....

[Wulaw Horn 19,588]

12 minutes ago, htown85 said:

I love the confidence people have that releasing the SIP orders will lead to ultimate destruction and more shut-downs. They are so confident that they feel compelled to throw in insults and name-calling into arguments.  This is an unprecedented event and no one knows the end of this thing.  That said...if anything, you could say the country overreacted.  Hospitals were built that were never used.  The hospital bed capacity in Texas is over 28,000 and beds needed is 1,200.  ICU bed capacity is over 2,200 and beds needed is 300.  Even if we went back to pre-COVID activities I wonder if we would hit the limits?  source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas

I understand the fear of reopening given what has been reported from the start, so I don't think anyone is an idiot for wanting to play it safe.  By all means, don't do anything that makes you uncomfortable.  The people I can't stand are the ones who are calling others idiots/trash for wanting to reopen or for not wearing a mask (if it's optional) and whatever other insults they feel like throwing out there.  

I don't know what data to trust anymore because the initial models were so far off (in a good way, we never got close to their predicted crisis) but the data seems to support reopening.  Yes, cases are still increasing - but that will happen regardless with increased spread and testing.  Hospital capacity hasn't been a problem in weeks and it was only ever a problem in 3 parts of the world - Wuhan, Lombardy, and NYC.  Given where we are today, it seems impossible for 90% of the US (exception is dense populations) to ever get to the critical points in time those 3 locations experienced.  It would be like Nebraska fearing a tsunami...it won't happen.  Meanwhile 1/4 of the country is unemployed...which gets back to my original point: if the data supports reopening, why are the people receiving insults the ones who are supported by the data?

 Because science you fucking evil stupid sister fucking moron. 

Thats what I gather anyway. 

[htown85 159]

3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

The cool thing about that decision is that if you want to isolate you can. Absolutely nobody is stopping you. And I’d completely encourage it if you are high risk. It’s a really really really good idea. 

This.  Society is not punishing people if they want to stay home because they fear getting sick - in fact it's encouraged.  However, if you are comfortable in living your life you are considered a redneck idiot murderer.

 

[Bevo 13,870]

10 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

Yap was a choice duty station once upon a time. The US maintained a Loran station there and other than keeping that running there wasn't much to do outside of smoke weed and go scuba diving in some of the most pristine waters on the planet.

I've always wanted to go for some unknown reason. I think it is because there is no uncharted land in this world but it would at least be fun to tell people we went on vacation to Yap and get blank stares.

[Lurch 5,949]

I’m a male. It’s possible I could get breast cancer.  Breast cancer happens to about 300,000 people a year. Should I get a mammogram? 
Of course not- it’s 100 times more likely (assuming quick google research is correct from Mayo center) that my wife will get it than that I will get it. Similarly, lumping 85 year olds with pneumonia in with me in a CFR doesn’t tell me anything about what my risk calculus is. 
We cant shut down America until there’s a cure. It’s completely unworkable. Now is as good a time as any to reopen and go about our lives, while monitoring to make sure that the hospital systems are not overwhelmed. 
The cool thing about that decision is that if you want to isolate you can. Absolutely nobody is stopping you. And I’d completely encourage it if you are high risk. It’s a really really really good idea. Just like getting a mammogram if you are a 40 year old plus woman or a prostate exam if you are a 40+ male. It’s a responsible solution to an increased risk factor. But I didn’t bend over and ask doctor jelly fingers to check out my prostate at 25 years old. 

Just because you get it and it doesn’t kill you (or even show signs of infection) doesn’t absolve you from responsibility to the community not to unknowingly spread it.

[Wulaw Horn 19,588]

10 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

I believe it’s on the order of 1.5 out of 1,000 for someone in their 40s (I dug those stats up Friday but don’t have them handy). Much lower than overall CFR, but higher than the overall CFR for flu and thus almost certainly much higher than a 40-something’s risk of dying from flu.

So COVID is not less deadly than flu in terms of individual risk. Not even close. 

Roger- so if your numbers are correct the. I’m seeing I have a 1/667 chance of sting if I get this thing. 

I think it’s likely to say it’s 70/30 I get it if engaged in normal life and that’s certainly pessimistic- so my overall odds of dying from this thing are what- right about 1/1000? I don’t love that decision as my odds of getting hit by lightening or dying in a car wreck are much lower than that, but it’s also not something that’s going to keep me locked in my house for untold amounts of time. 

My kids odds (all under 10 and healthy) of dying from this seem to be about zero. 

Thanks for the numbers. I was, apparently guilty of a bit of hyperbole or wishful thinking (probably- we certainly aren’t absolutely positive your numbers are correct and if the overall CFR- as it relates to me- are accurate) in saying my likelihood of death was equivalent to the flu- but I wasn’t wrong about my numbers in saying the absolute worst case scenario was 1/200 and I thought it was more like 1/1000, which is where we get using your numbers. 

[Js1 87,175]

1 minute ago, Lurch said:

 

Just because you get it and it doesn’t kill you (or even show signs of infection) doesn’t absolve you from responsibility to the community not to unknowingly spread it.

 

Community responsibility? Caring about other people?

HA. NERD. WHAT A LOSER. ‘Murica 

[htown85 159]

Just now, Js1 said:

Community responsibility? Caring about other people?

HA. NERD. WHAT A LOSER. ‘Murica 

Only took a few posts to get to an example of my point.  Thanks for this.

[Bevo 13,870]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Roger- so if your numbers are correct the. I’m seeing I have a 1/667 chance of sting if I get this thing. 

Leave the police out of this.

[Trey3216 15,452]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Community responsibility? Caring about other people?

HA. NERD. WHAT A LOSER. ‘Murica 

Funny how some folks on here have lost all ability to reason.  
 

 

[Js1 87,175]

3 minutes ago, htown85 said:

Only took a few posts to get to an example of my point.  Thanks for this.

We got your point. And Wulaw’s. If it does not or might minimally affect you, who cares until it does. 

[stork642 4,511]

6 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Funny how some folks on here have lost all ability to reason.  
 

 

More like they never had it in the first place. 

Edited May 3, 2020 by stork642

[Wulaw Horn 19,588]

23 minutes ago, Lurch said:

 

Just because you get it and it doesn’t kill you (or even show signs of infection) doesn’t absolve you from responsibility to the community not to unknowingly spread it.

 

Sure. Which is why I’m not knocking on doors or visiting olds, or getting into anyone’s personal space while I’m out and about. 

But, unless and until we get a vaccine (and all available evidence is we are likely a long way away from getting a vaccine) I can’t see that society will be any more prepared to reopen 6 months or a year from now than it is right now. So, if that’s likely to the case then we have a decision to make as a society- are we better served by shelter in place and complete and total economic ruin (and abridgment of liberties) until there’s a cure, or are we better off isolating high risk people and collectively rolling the dice and accepting this risk as a society. 

If that’s what we are talking about then let’s have a conversation about it. We were told this was necessary to flatten the curve and stop the health care system from getting overwhelmed. Mission fucking accomplished. If that’s not the metric then what is, and how much are we willing to collectively pay to accomplish that metric as a society?  

Edited May 3, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

1 minute ago, htown85 said:

Only took a few posts to get to an example of my point.  Thanks for this.

Umm.. he was being sarcastic, and mocking you in a back handed way for your comment.  The argument is stay at home till we have this thing figured out 100%. That's a nice sentiment and all,  but while everyone stays at home our economy, and the rest of the worlds will at some point sink to a level that it won't recover from for years and years (SEE: 1929).

If anyone think deaths were high in March, wait for the millions and millions of deaths the next couple years because of the hardships, adverse poverty, lack of health care, jobs, food,  and a wretched economy have on peoples lives.  There has got to be a balance, and a way to move forward. So the whole huddle in your home till its 100% safe to go out is not a realistic prescription for solving this issue.  I venture to say many people who don't worry about in home confinement indefinitely have the monetary means to ride it out, and just aren't being affected the same way many other folks are.

[Trey3216 15,452]

19 minutes ago, Js1 said:

We got your point. And Wulaw’s. If it does not or might minimally affect you, who cares until it does. 

And we get yours and Harambe’s as well; only your opinion is correct and only idiots act otherwise.   Theres no way on earth someone of your “side” would decide to go to Home Depot, or a restaurant, or be seen inside H-E-B.  That’s left for unwashed retarded heathens.   Fuck that, man.  
 

 

Edited May 3, 2020 by Trey3216

[htown85 159]

Just now, Js1 said:

We got your point. And Wulaw’s. If it does not or might minimally affect you, who cares until it does. 

I don't think you get my point.  I was highlighting name-calling reactions to people who are trying to have objective views on what's happening given the data publicly available. 

But since you've engaged on another point - over 30 million people have lost their job.  I assume you haven't.  Since this is as black/white as you're suggesting, I suppose you don't care about them or the community affected economically?

[Wulaw Horn 19,588]

27 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Community responsibility? Caring about other people?

HA. NERD. WHAT A LOSER. ‘Murica 

I do care about other people. I care about the server that need to make money to feed himself and his family. I care about the retail worker that is scared out of their mind that they won’t have a job to come back to. I care about the dude in California that wants to go out and surf. I care about the person that’s depressed enough about what’s going on that they contemplate putting a gun in their mouth and pulling the trigger. Because all those things are happening all around you as we are having this conversation. Unless you are prepared to say you are comfortable with SIP until there’s a cure/vaccine (if we do get either) then the only way out is rolling the dice, sheltering the at risk, and hoping for herd immunity as quickly as possible. 

What is your metric for when you think we should go out and live a somewhat normal life?  

Edited May 3, 2020 by Wulaw Horn

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,594]

2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Umm.. he was being sarcastic, and mocking you in a back handed way for your comment.  The argument is stay at home till we have this thing figured out 100%. That's a nice sentiment and all,  but while everyone stays at home our economy, and the rest of the worlds will at some point sink to a level that it won't recover from for years and years (SEE: 1929).

If anyone think deaths were high in March, wait for the millions and millions of deaths the next couple years because of the hardships, adverse poverty, lack of health care, jobs, food,  and a wretched economy have on peoples lives.  There has got to be a balance, and a way to move forward. So the whole huddle in your home till its 100% safe to go out is not a realistic prescription for solving this issue.  I venture to say many people who don't worry about in home confinement indefinitely have the monetary means to ride it out, and just aren't being affected the same way many other folks are.

This. Most people here do not grasp economics nor do they realize the near irreversible damage that is being done to our economy on a daily basis. The longer this goes, the more despair and death that will result. This disease has a kill rate of around 0.25%, meaning if all 330 million people caught it in our country, we wouldnt even have 1 million deaths. I mean come on people... 

[Trey3216 15,452]

1 minute ago, htown85 said:

I don't think you get my point.  I was highlighting name-calling reactions to people who are trying to have objective views on what's happening given the data publicly available. 

But since you've engaged on another point - over 30 million people have lost their job.  I assume you haven't.  Since this is as black/white as you're suggesting, I suppose you don't care about them or the community affected economically?

It’ll be really cool if we shelter in place for another 8 months so maybe 50% or more are unemployed.  How long will the bread and soup kitchen lines stretch when you have to maintain 6 feet of separation.  What a fucking world to look forward to.  
 

 

[Armybrat 41,393]

54 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So .12 obviously fits between .1-.2 that I mentioned. 

Now- let’s compare apples to apples and compare likelihood of killing a healthy-ish 41 year old. 

Or- likelihood that my 4, 7 and 9 year old die (which- as of last time I checked in NYC we have 0 cases of them dying). 

My guess is that my odds of getting this and dying are somewhere on the order of 1/1000 or so. If you are right and it’s something like .5 at the absolute worst for me that’s what- 1/200?

Those are odds I’m willing to take, especially when sitting at home and doing nothing probably leaves me with a pretty similar chance of dying at some point in time anyway. 

If you want to say- hey- I’m so afraid of this bug that I’m going to stay inside at all times except when I drive to Heb for curbside in my hazmat suit that’s your call and I won’t even point and laugh. I just don’t think that’s what government should mandate now that the curve is flattened and it’s pretty clear out hospitals are not going to be overwhelmed. 

But instead- we are actually killing hospital capacity by cancelling elective surgeries and leading to layoffs and closures. This just doesn’t make any sense to me. 

My in-laws are high risk for this thing. They are not going to resume life until there is a treatment protocol or a vaccine. I figure worst case I’m 1/200 for dying but my father in law that’s old with diabetes and heart problems and my MIL that’s old and down a kidney have more like a 1/5-1/10 chance of dying if they get this. If those were my odds I damn sure would not venture out into the world nor entertain guests we we will have a FaceTime relationship with them for months (years?) which is sad. 

Totally agree.

We are not going anywhere until mid July, and even  that is a very big iffy. I can see us staying in place through the end of the year... except for my upcoming retina surgery.

[ChiTownDoc 21,345]

39 minutes ago, htown85 said:

I love the confidence people have that releasing the SIP orders will lead to ultimate destruction and more shut-downs. They are so confident that they feel compelled to throw in insults and name-calling into arguments.  This is an unprecedented event and no one knows the end of this thing.  That said...if anything, you could say the country overreacted.  Hospitals were built that were never used.  The hospital bed capacity in Texas is over 28,000 and beds needed is 1,200.  ICU bed capacity is over 2,200 and beds needed is 300.  Even if we went back to pre-COVID activities I wonder if we would hit the limits?  source: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas

I understand the fear of reopening given what has been reported from the start, so I don't think anyone is an idiot for wanting to play it safe.  By all means, don't do anything that makes you uncomfortable.  The people I can't stand are the ones who are calling others idiots/trash for wanting to reopen or for not wearing a mask (if it's optional) and whatever other insults they feel like throwing out there.  

I don't know what data to trust anymore because the initial models were so far off (in a good way, we never got close to their predicted crisis) but the data seems to support reopening.  Yes, cases are still increasing - but that will happen regardless with increased spread and testing.  Hospital capacity hasn't been a problem in weeks and it was only ever a problem in 3 parts of the world - Wuhan, Lombardy, and NYC.  Given where we are today, it seems impossible for 90% of the US (exception is dense populations) to ever get to the critical points in time those 3 locations experienced.  It would be like Nebraska fearing a tsunami...it won't happen.  Meanwhile 1/4 of the country is unemployed...which gets back to my original point: if the data supports reopening, why are the people receiving insults the ones who are supported by the data?

I can assure you if you went back to bars, clubs, conventions, festivals, full stadiums etc today, your healthcare system would 100% be overwhelmed.  

[The_Great_Hornsby 3,594]

Just now, Trey3216 said:

It’ll be really cool if we shelter in place for another 8 months so maybe 50% or more are unemployed.  How long will the bread and soup kitchen lines stretch when you have to maintain 6 feet of separation.  What a fucking world to look forward to.  
 

 

Socialism would fix all of our problems, this situation just reveals the evils of capitalism /s

[Wulaw Horn 19,588]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

We got your point. And Wulaw’s. If it does not or might minimally affect you, who cares until it does. 

It effects all of us. In way more ways than who might get sick, and might get hospitalized, and who might die. 

What is your opinion on an acceptable level of risk for society and what is your metric on when it’s ok to open society back up?  

Thats the real discussion and question. We aren’t talking about that, we are insulting each other and talking past each other. 

 

[htown85 159]

1 minute ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I can assure you if you went back to bars, clubs, conventions, festivals, full stadiums etc today, your healthcare system would 100% be overwhelmed.  

Probably, and I'm not arguing or advocating for that.  I'm just trying to point out how comfortable the state of Texas is with its hospital capacity which was the original concern that inspired the lockdowns.