Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

7 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

This. Most people here do not grasp economics nor do they realize the near irreversible damage that is being done to our economy on a daily basis. The longer this goes, the more despair and death that will result. This disease has a kill rate of around 0.25%, meaning if all 330 million people caught it in our country, we wouldnt even have 1 million deaths. I mean come on people... 

Met with a client yesterday face to face  (gaaaaaasp, oh the hor-rorr). Their family is being re located to CA. He just read a study about the current unemployment rate, and peoples reactions in CA.  He said the folks were required to fill out forms for unemployment, and had to answer a litany of questions. One of those was do you see your situation as long term, do you see your company re hiring you.  He said the % of people responding that thought their company was going to re hire them was above 80%.  That's encouraging, in that people still have confidence in the future, and our economy.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Onboard 2.0

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,367]

 

[Dahobbs 18,311]

15 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Roger- so if your numbers are correct the. I’m seeing I have a 1/667 chance of sting if I get this thing. 

I think it’s likely to say it’s 70/30 I get it if engaged in normal life and that’s certainly pessimistic- so my overall odds of dying from this thing are what- right about 1/1000? I don’t love that decision as my odds of getting hit by lightening or dying in a car wreck are much lower than that, but it’s also not something that’s going to keep me locked in my house for untold amounts of time. 

My kids odds (all under 10 and healthy) of dying from this seem to be about zero. 

Thanks for the numbers. I was, apparently guilty of a bit of hyperbole or wishful thinking (probably- we certainly aren’t absolutely positive your numbers are correct and if the overall CFR- as it relates to me- are accurate) in saying my likelihood of death was equivalent to the flu- but I wasn’t wrong about my numbers in saying the absolute worst case scenario was 1/200 and I thought it was more like 1/1000, which is where we get using your numbers. 

I'll also add that you are male. And the hospitilzation and fatality rates for males appear to be signicantly higher than females (see JAMA study on NY hospitilzations). So it may be more like 1/100 (and potentially higher for you given the medical issues if you've listed). 

That said, I dont think you're stupid for wanting to take that risk to get a normal life. Individual risk on this thing is still low. But the problem remains societal risk, so if we are going to reopen, it is important we have a plan to do so responsibly. I actually think Texas' limited reopening isnt a bad start. I still think it needs to be accompanied by some sort of systematic testing and isolation program and easy precautions like requiring masks in public places.

If we can just get the reproduction number to 1, this thing would be totally manageable. Individual and societal risk would be very limited because there wouldn't be a growing pool of infected increasing the chances of individual infection (i.e., each interaction would have a very low chance of encountering an infected person). This seems doable to me. I'd just like us to have a plan versus just winging it as we go. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,590]

12 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

And we get yours and Harambe’s as well; only your opinion is correct and only idiots act otherwise.   Theres no way on earth someone of your “side” would decide to go to Home Depot, or a restaurant, or be seen inside H-E-B.  That’s left for I washed retarded heathens.   Fuck that, man.  
 

 

And that’s the exact point I made that kick started this entire discussion. 

Meanwhile, when someone asks “what is our metric, who decides what that metric is, how do they decide that, at what cost, and what benefit are we likely to obtain by waiting on reopening for a month, 2 months or a year?” the response is... what?  I’m serious when I ask this. I haven’t seen anyone lobbing the insults suggest what the answer is to any of those things.  

[Wulaw Horn 19,590]

12 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It’ll be really cool if we shelter in place for another 8 months so maybe 50% or more are unemployed.  How long will the bread and soup kitchen lines stretch when you have to maintain 6 feet of separation.  What a fucking world to look forward to.  
 

 

Yeah- I really really really want an answer from the lock it down indefinitely crowd (my goodness Oregon just extended until July 6!) when it’s acceptable to go back to work and just how much carnage and misery they find to be acceptable when the economy is a smoking ruin that will take, possibly, a generation to recover from. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,590]

16 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Totally agree.

We are not going anywhere until mid July, and even  that is a very big iffy. I can see us staying in place through the end of the year... except for my upcoming retina surgery.

I’m sorry that you have to walk through that man. It kills me that my kids can’t see their grandparents (and who knows how many Easter’s, birthdays and mother’s day we have left with them- and we will have missed all of those things in the last 3 months). Or that they won’t be able to interact with the world well after other people try to put life back into some semblance of order. 

It’s a real motherfucker and I wish there was something we could do to make that not so for you. 

[Telegraph_it 3,379]

The church I go to just announced they will open for service on May 31st. More logistic details will be provided next week so I don’t know what social distancing parameters will be out in place. 
 

My family won’t be going then because I have a one year old and childcare doesn’t have an open date yet. Which makes complete sense. 

[Horns99 172]

We got your point. And Wulaw’s. If it does not or might minimally affect you, who cares until it does. 

So, for you guys that think it’s too soon to open back up, what’s your plan? When is it ok to open back up? What’s the difference in opening back up now vs in 30-60 days? There isn’t going to be a fucking cure for it by then. It appears in most cities anyone who wants to be tested can. The hospitals have plenty of capacity.

If you want to stay home, if you are at risk stay home, but let the rest of the country start living again, if they want to.

[stork642 4,511]

23 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It’ll be really cool if we shelter in place for another 8 months so maybe 50% or more are unemployed.  How long will the bread and soup kitchen lines stretch when you have to maintain 6 feet of separation.  What a fucking world to look forward to.  
 

 

Good point. So if we all shut down for 8-10 months would the people that died due to the shut down (hardships, adverse poverty, lack of health care, jobs, lack of food) be counted as Covid 19 deaths.  So many possibilities.  If the deaths from a long shut down are actually higher than Covid 19 deaths then that would be worse than the disease.  Just thinking out loud here.  

Edited May 3, 2020 by stork642

[Wulaw Horn 19,590]

20 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I can assure you if you went back to bars, clubs, conventions, festivals, full stadiums etc today, your healthcare system would 100% be overwhelmed.  

And I haven’t seen anyone but the most nutty suggest that. My guess is movie theaters would be just fine (those new recliners are wide and pretty well separated), restaurants are fine, almost anything outdoor is fine, and as long as we aren’t packing massive amounts of people asshole to elbows we can thread the needle and allow more and more commerce and activity without overwhelming the health care system. 

Also- as you know and have directly pointed out- the healthcare system isn’t some nationwide monolith it’s something that can be treated differently in New York and San Diego without a one size fits all approach. 

[Bevo 13,870]

22 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I can assure you if you went back to bars, clubs, conventions, festivals, full stadiums etc today, your healthcare system would 100% be overwhelmed.  

Yeah, but that would also be true if the quarantines lasted until August and were 100% effective.

[Hmbre97 6,337]

 

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

So .12 obviously fits between .1-.2 that I mentioned. 

Now- let’s compare apples to apples and compare likelihood of killing a healthy-ish 41 year old. 

Or- likelihood that my 4, 7 and 9 year old die (which- as of last time I checked in NYC we have 0 cases of them dying). 

My guess is that my odds of getting this and dying are somewhere on the order of 1/1000 or so. If you are right and it’s something like .5 at the absolute worst for me that’s what- 1/200?

Those are odds I’m willing to take, especially when sitting at home and doing nothing probably leaves me with a pretty similar chance of dying at some point in time anyway. 

If you want to say- hey- I’m so afraid of this bug that I’m going to stay inside at all times except when I drive to Heb for curbside in my hazmat suit that’s your call and I won’t even point and laugh. I just don’t think that’s what government should mandate now that the curve is flattened and it’s pretty clear out hospitals are not going to be overwhelmed. 

But instead- we are actually killing hospital capacity by cancelling elective surgeries and leading to layoffs and closures. This just doesn’t make any sense to me. 

My in-laws are high risk for this thing. They are not going to resume life until there is a treatment protocol or a vaccine. I figure worst case I’m 1/200 for dying but my father in law that’s old with diabetes and heart problems and my MIL that’s old and down a kidney have more like a 1/5-1/10 chance of dying if they get this. If those were my odds I damn sure would not venture out into the world nor entertain guests we we will have a FaceTime relationship with them for months (years?) which is sad. 

The point that you're not grasping or maybe you are but you just don't care is this isn't about you or me or the people on this site who are younger and more than likely not going to die from this bug. It's strictly about the higher risk people. To cliffs-notes what you've repeated several time in this thread, you're essentially saying because you're not worried about dying from it, fuck all the old people and others who have underlying conditions and let's just open everything back up full tilt. 

I'm not saying everyone needs to live in a bubble and I really don't see anyone else advocating for that. I also agree with you about the hospitals. We've successfully flattened the curve so far so let them get back to normal with the contingency that they have a sufficient supply of PPE now to handle any issues in the future.

What I am saying is we're only a few months into dealing with this virus and it's stupid/irresponsible to already be reopening restaurants to dine in and opening retail/gyms back up and having people in close contact with others in enclosed spaces needlessly. A) the food is the exact same whether you're eating it at the table in the restaurant vs at home. B)  Pretty much every retailer now offers some form of online ordering and curbside pickup. C) there are lots of ways to exercise at home. The government doesn't give a shit about small business owners. This is all about big money and the industries that have the ear of our politicians. By declaring we can open things back up, states can now deny unemployment to people who are unwilling to go back to work for fear of illness/dying. Commercial RE landlords can try to pressure owners into paying rents again since they're being told it's safe to operate. Insurance companies want shit reopened so they aren't on the hook for business interruption insurance.

My point is, despite what governor hot wheels is saying, it's not responsible on a personal level to be partaking in these activities because you're putting peoples lives at risk. But that's a moot point I guess if all you care about is yourself.

 

 

 

 

[Macanudo 13,318]

I've been telling yall for several weeks that Amarillo and surrounding towns was fucked.  And then the meat packers on Moore County (one county north of Amarillo) got massive cases relative to the population.

Mentioned this last week, the entire 10-12 counties around Amarillo has a population comparable to  Galveston or Brazoria counties and has more cases by far. 

Montgomery County (The Woodland, Conroe, etc has 40% more people and 600 less cases.  Fort Bend has about rhd same population as Montgomery County and still has 300 fewer cases than the Amarillo area. 

Diagnosis rate in Amarillo is .41%.   Its .14% for the Houston area (I'm using Harris County and the 6 counties that border it).   If Houston Metro had .41% testing rate, thered be over 27,000 cases here and not 9,500.

The people out there a scared.  Big time.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Macanudo

[stork642 4,511]

24 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I can assure you if you went back to bars, clubs, conventions, festivals, full stadiums etc today, your healthcare system would 100% be overwhelmed.  

I’m no doctor but is it possible that we are closing in on herd immunity by August/September?  I’m getting my antibody test this week.  Had some weird thing mid February(fever, chills, aches) and tested neg for Flu and neg for viruses.  I’m thinking there’s a pretty good chance I had Covid.  Worth checking.  

[ChiTownDoc 21,345]

Just now, stork642 said:

I’m no doctor but is it possible that we are closing in on herd immunity by August/September?  I’m getting my antibody test this week.  Had some weird thing mid February(fever, chills, aches) and tested neg for Flu and neg for viruses.  I’m thinking there’s a pretty good chance I had Covid.  Worth checking.  

Nope.  We won’t even be remotely close.  Sadly.  

[Wulaw Horn 19,590]

15 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I'll also add that you are male. And the hospitilzation and fatality rates for males appear to be signicantly higher than females (see JAMA study on NY hospitilzations). So it may be more like 1/100 (and potentially higher for you given the medical issues if you've listed). 

That said, I dont think you're stupid for wanting to take that risk to get a normal life. Individual risk on this thing is still low. But the problem remains societal risk, so if we are going to reopen, it is important we have a plan to do so responsibly. I actually think Texas' limited reopening isnt a bad start. I still think it needs to be accompanied by some sort of systematic testing and isolation program and easy precautions like requiring masks in public places.

If we can just get the reproduction number to 1, this thing would be totally manageable. Individual and societal risk would be very limited because there wouldn't be a growing pool of infected increasing the chances of individual infection (i.e., each interaction would have a very low chance of encountering an infected person). This seems doable to me. I'd just like us to have a plan versus just winging it as we go. 

As you pointed out we do have a plan. You even think it’s sensible!  I think it’s a little too narrow right now but you and I were never likely to agree on when and how much to re-open but at least you have a reasonable metic, are open to the idea that it has to happen, and recognize the downside to not re-opening. The insult everyone and SIP until there’s a cure crowd doesn’t do any of that. 

1/100 might make me think about SIP. I probably wouldn’t as I need to support my family as the sole breadwinner and even dying with my SSI and life insurance is supporting my family, but I’m probably still in the engage in life crowd at those odds. 

Also, and this is the part I can’t get past, I just don’t see myself as unlikely to avoid getting this thing if it’s as highly contagious as everyone says. Are we gonna to shit down schools until there is a vaccine?  That seems like total madness. As soon as the kids get back to school my chance of dodging this is essentially zero. 

[ChiTownDoc 21,345]

8 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Yeah, but that would also be true if the quarantines lasted until August and were 100% effective.

Yes.  Of course.  

[Dahobbs 18,311]

I'll add, my primary concern with me personally going out again isnt my safety. I'm concerned I'll unknowingly spread the disease to someone more vulnerable. Until I see some societal wide plan to protect the vulnerable (and I think the best way is to keep the total number of active infections relatively low and stable), it feels reckless to reintroduce myself to society. Someone else's death could be on me, and I really really dont like that idea. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,590]

11 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:

 

The point that you're not grasping or maybe you are but you just don't care is this isn't about you or me or the people on this site who are younger and more than likely not going to die from this bug. It's strictly about the higher risk people. To cliffs-notes what you've repeated several time in this thread, you're essentially saying because you're not worried about dying from it, fuck all the old people and others who have underlying conditions and let's just open everything back up full tilt

 

 

 

 

This is the point of disagreement here- explain to me how me being sheltered in place is beneficial for Army Brat. If he shelters he gets the benefit of sheltering. If I don’t I carry the risk. 

In what world is me going out to eat more dangerous to him if he’s properly sheltering in place?  

There’s clearly a problem with multi generational families that would have to be worked out but the people that are high risk need to be put in a bubble, not the low risk people that are willing to roll the dice. 

You can disagree with that but disagree with that as opposed to insulting my intelligence, my compassion for other people, my willingness to abide by the social contract or anything else. 

Or don’t. Because unless and until you are willing to engage with me like a fellow human being, and unless and until you bring an actual point of view to the table (what’s the metric for reopening, what cost are we willing to pay to get there, how do we decide societally that we’ve hit those metrics) you are not worth me concerning myself with. 

[Wulaw Horn 19,590]

7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I'll add, my primary concern with me personally going out again isnt my safety. I'm concerned I'll unknowingly spread the disease to someone more vulnerable. Until I see some societal wide plan to protect the vulnerable (and I think the best way is to keep the total number of active infections relatively low and stable), it feels reckless to reintroduce myself to society. Someone else's death could be on me, and I really really dont like that idea. 

That’s actually my biggest concern as well.

I’m not an uncaring asshole. I guess the thing I fall back on is assumption of risk. If we collectively decide as a society that whatever we do has a risk, but we are going to minimize it as it affects the most vulnerable among us- then that’s the decision to make and there’s no profit in sitting around and second guessing that decision.

The most vulnerable among us can opt out. Those that are engaged in life will infect each other, and even if we aren’t individually vulnerable we will still have people die because collectively it will happen.  And I will be a part of that (either dying or helping someone else along the path to that), and that will suck. 

But the alternative also leads to death and destruction as well. 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,430]

36 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:

My point is, despite what governor hot wheels is saying, it's not responsible on a personal level to be partaking in these activities because you're putting peoples lives at risk. But that's a moot point I guess if all you care about is yourself.

* Making fun of a handicapped person is the best way to demonstrate my depth of care for others.

[Incredulity 11,875]

“Societal wide plan to protect the vulnerable”

Could we get something more ambiguous?  

 

[Armybrat 41,394]

53 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I’m sorry that you have to walk through that man. It kills me that my kids can’t see their grandparents (and who knows how many Easter’s, birthdays and mother’s day we have left with them- and we will have missed all of those things in the last 3 months). Or that they won’t be able to interact with the world well after other people try to put life back into some semblance of order. 

It’s a real motherfucker and I wish there was something we could do to make that not so for you. 

I’m not the touchy feely type, so the brief in person visits (outside, maintaining distance) every few weeks with the grandkids are ok. But Mrs. Brat misses the family dinners and hugging all the boys.

At least my liquor cabinet has been spared their depredations.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Armybrat

[Armybrat 41,394]

2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

“Societal wide plan to protect the vulnerable”

Could we get something more ambiguous?  

 

Dunno, but I may start drinking good whisky again as a part of my plan.

[BrazilHorn 6,839]

If you are higher risk you should probably stay home for a good long time. 
 

Obese, old, have underlying health condition - your shelter in place may last til January 

not old, fat etc then you can go out but still all should practice social distancing. 
 

Shutting entire country down longer and longer is far worse a cure. Needs of many. 
 

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,979]

I'll add, my primary concern with me personally going out again isnt my safety. I'm concerned I'll unknowingly spread the disease to someone more vulnerable. Until I see some societal wide plan to protect the vulnerable (and I think the best way is to keep the total number of active infections relatively low and stable), it feels reckless to reintroduce myself to society. Someone else's death could be on me, and I really really dont like that idea. 

I’ve done grocery curbside pick up the last 7 weeks. The last one I made a few days ago, I watched an older couple were walking in to the store. She had a doctors mask on(whoopee) and her husband with no mask. No gloves either. Is me sheltering in place to protect them really going to stop them from being adventurous whenever they want? Contact trace sounds great on paper. Trying to get olds to get out their smart phones they don’t know how to use to try and keep up with who’s been with who/where every time they go out seems like fantasy land.

 

 

To me bottom line is this: the majority of these deaths aren’t young workers. It’s not people going to games, bars or restaurants. We’re almost 3 months into not visiting the vulnerable at long care facilities,nursing homes and outbreaks are still happening all over the country. It happens so often that not every one can be reported on the national news like the Kirkland one. People die. The ones dying from this will be dead sooner rather than later no matter what precautions we take.

[Axle Hongsnort 210]

 

This is encouraging. In the absence of a vaccine, this is the pathway to normalcy.

EDIT - Twitter quote fail...refers to article on South Korea.

[The Dog 44,854]

I've been telling yall for several weeks that Amarillo and surrounding towns was fucked.  And then the meat packers on Moore County (one county north of Amarillo) got massive cases relative to the population.
Mentioned this last week, the entire 10-12 counties around Amarillo has a population comparable to  Galveston or Brazoria counties and has more cases by far. 
Montgomery County (The Woodland, Conroe, etc has 40% more people and 600 less cases.  Fort Bend has about rhd same population as Montgomery County and still has 300 fewer cases than the Amarillo area. 
Diagnosis rate in Amarillo is .41%.   Its .14% for the Houston area (I'm using Harris County and the 6 counties that border it).   If Houston Metro had .41% testing rate, thered be over 27,000 cases here and not 9,500.
The people out there a scared.  Big time.

Yup. This was on my FB feed from the current mayor:


“Hi Amarillo. This week, I have been working with the Governor's office to request additional resources for Amarillo. Governor Abbott called me today; he has been working with Vice President Pence regarding the outbreak in our beef packing plants. They are sending a surge strike force to bring resources and strategies to attack the outbreaks that are happening in our hotspots.

The Federal Government will be taking over the operations of our investigation and our testing. The team will arrive as late as Monday and their plan is to also encompass all of Amarillo in their strategy.

The Governor wants us to know that the Vice President and the Center for Disease Control (CDC) are personally engaged in watching what is happening in Amarillo and are creating the resources to help us fight it.

I also want to make you aware that our testing is going to increase this week. We may even double our testing numbers in one week. Prepare yourselves that our positive test results are going to go up in the next 7-14 days. This is a good thing. The more data we have, the greater our information and the tools we will have to combat the spread.

I hope it brings you as much peace of mind as it brings me. Our elected officials are engaged and helping us to craft a strategy that they have been using in other meatpacking plants, and will bring the resources we need to slow the spread and stop the outbreak.

The Governor reminded me, "It is best for your citizens to stay indoors.” The more we can stay in, the less we will be out carrying the virus unknowingly to people who have to be out.

Please continue to stay in as much as possible and wear a mask when you must go out.”

[Treefidy 1,507]

On 5/1/2020 at 8:20 PM, XYZ said:

It seems like an extreme coincidence that a coronavirus would pop up right in the vicinity of a lab that studies...coronavirus. Also the assertion that covid-19 couldn’t have been man-made is baseless.

Additional cliffs:  the lab was working on bat corona viruses and how they infect humans.

The video did mention the labs lead researcher Shi Zhengli "bat woman" has been doing gain of function experiments with corona viruses and the s protein.  They probably should have mentioned that the bat woman has published papers on a virus she found in 2013 that was highly pathogenic and couldn't be controlled by SARS treatments   So what to do with all this?  Let's take the parts of this one virus that is highly infectious and combine it with this other one that is deadly.   

Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system2, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/11/151110115711.htm

 

They were studying bat corona viruses, and they were recombining bat corona viruses to make new bat corona viruses that specifically infect humans.  At ground zero for the outbreak.

but there is no way this thing came from the lab, and we know this because scientists who were involved with these experiments and similar types of grant funded work told us it can't have happened.    Thats like Phillip Morris and Reynolds determining that it is air pollution and not their cigarettes that cause smokers to get lung cancer.   

[Trey3216 15,452]

52 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I'll add, my primary concern with me personally going out again isnt my safety. I'm concerned I'll unknowingly spread the disease to someone more vulnerable. Until I see some societal wide plan to protect the vulnerable (and I think the best way is to keep the total number of active infections relatively low and stable), it feels reckless to reintroduce myself to society. Someone else's death could be on me, and I really really dont like that idea. 

Someone’s death could be on you turning on your gas stove in the morning, driving to the corner store to get a six pack, backing out of your parking spot at work.  
 

I understand your perspective, but there’s a lot of perspective in creating a perspective.  

[Buzzrock 15,136]

SIAP but this report says you can’t get it twice. Congrats ChiTownDoc. Hope my antibody test is positive.


https://www.msn.com/en-au/news/coronavirus/scientists-conclude-people-cannot-get-coronavirus-twice/ar-BB13tX0V

[Trey3216 15,452]

28 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

* Making fun of a handicapped person is the best way to demonstrate my depth of care for others.

*as long as its not my team

[Js1 87,176]

30 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

* Making fun of a handicapped person is the best way to demonstrate my depth of care for others.

Look how cute and woke I am, guys! On a message board full of assholes who make fun of everyone on a daily basis 

Edited May 3, 2020 by Js1

[Telegraph_it 3,379]

19 minutes ago, Treefidy said:

Additional cliffs:  the lab was working on bat corona viruses and how they infect humans.

The video did mention the labs lead researcher Shi Zhengli "bat woman" has been doing gain of function experiments with corona viruses and the s protein.  They probably should have mentioned that the bat woman has published papers on a virus she found in 2013 that was highly pathogenic and couldn't be controlled by SARS treatments   So what to do with all this?  Let's take the parts of this one virus that is highly infectious and combine it with this other one that is deadly.   

Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system2, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/11/151110115711.htm

 

They were studying bat corona viruses, and they were recombining bat corona viruses to make new bat corona viruses that specifically infect humans.  At ground zero for the outbreak.

but there is no way this thing came from the lab, and we know this because scientists who were involved with these experiments and similar types of grant funded work told us it can't have happened.    Thats like Phillip Morris and Reynolds determining that it is air pollution and not their cigarettes that cause smokers to get lung cancer.   

 

[atomheartbevo 90,641]

1 hour ago, Horns99 said:

When is it ok to open back up? What’s the difference in opening back up now vs in 30-60 days? There isn’t going to be a fucking cure for it by then. It appears in most cities anyone who wants to be tested can.

We need to improve the testing (both active and anti- cases) and the contact protocols.  From what I've seen here in Austin, it's been shit, but that's anecdotal, and based on two people I know who had confirmed cases, and another whose dad was confirmed (and hospitalized.  He had caught it from his son who had it).    In all three cases, nobody was out making phone calls saying "such-and-such person that you had contact with has a confirmed case of covid, can you please isolate yourself for 14 days and keep track of your temps, etc."  In all three cases, I found out through fucking Facebook posts.   I had direct contact with one of the individuals, and to find out several weeks later when they knew they knew they were positive when they were around me leaves me pretty surly about it.  Unfortunately you can't fix stupid.

Quote

The hospitals have plenty of capacity.

I'm sure people in NYC thought that as well.  And, as mentioned many times, it's very easy to overwhelm hospitals in smaller communities.  Keep an eye on West Texas and see how that pans out.  Hopefully it's mild for those folks, but some of those communities do not have spare hospital beds just waiting for covid patients.

Edited May 3, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,430]

Just now, Js1 said:

Look how cute and woke I am, guys! On a message board full of assholes who make fun of everyone on a daily basis 

You’ll have to define woke for me. I’ve never cared to research it. 

You can internally justify the nickname all you want, but if it weren’t for his position in government, this type of name calling wouldn’t be acceptable by a majority of this board. Unless you think a mentally handicapped person being called retarded is acceptable, even on Surly. Also, I don’t think calling a certain political figure from Indiana a faggot would receive the same level of support from you.

I just find it ironic how often we try to post ourselves up on a moral pedestal while simultaneously displaying our lack of self-awareness. Our good intentions are often overshadowed by our pettiness.

[Guest Lobo]

8 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

 

No politics dude!  State Department and the National Intelligence Community conflicting one another.  This should end well.  

[atomheartbevo 90,641]

1 hour ago, Telegraph_it said:

The church I go to just announced they will open for service on May 31st. More logistic details will be provided next week so I don’t know what social distancing parameters will be out in place. 

My family won’t be going then because I have a one year old and childcare doesn’t have an open date yet. Which makes complete sense. 

My wife's church (one of the larger in the area, and Baptist) is following a similar plan - end of May, opening up for 3-4 weeks with social distancing, folks over 65 should stay home, no childcare on site, and prefer no children in person.  Later in June they'll decide whether to open the doors to everybody.

I was actually extremely impressed with how conservative they were being, but as my wife pointed out, they have a shit-ton of compromised olds.  They also have a very media-savvy leadership for a Baptist church, and they know that if covid were to hit there, it would be all over the news, and it would drastically hurt the outreach they've been making to younger folks.

[MissingInAction 25,556]

I quit my job the other day because they wanted me to go into a festering cauldron of Rona at a call center. 

Luckily I was hired by another firm 30 minutes later, and they are 100% work remote. 

Fuck every bit of this shit.

[Foosters 18,274]

17 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

 

Probably next door to the yellow cake factory.

[workswithseed 2,204]

14 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

So kinda like a cruise ship or aircraft carrier? 

This is fucking dumb

[Hmbre97 6,337]

38 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

This is the point of disagreement here- explain to me how me being sheltered in place is beneficial for Army Brat. If he shelters he gets the benefit of sheltering. If I don’t I carry the risk. 

In what world is me going out to eat more dangerous to him if he’s properly sheltering in place?  

There’s clearly a problem with multi generational families that would have to be worked out but the people that are high risk need to be put in a bubble, not the low risk people that are willing to roll the dice. 

You can disagree with that but disagree with that as opposed to insulting my intelligence, my compassion for other people, my willingness to abide by the social contract or anything else. 

Or don’t. Because unless and until you are willing to engage with me like a fellow human being, and unless and until you bring an actual point of view to the table (what’s the metric for reopening, what cost are we willing to pay to get there, how do we decide societally that we’ve hit those metrics) you are not worth me concerning myself with. 

The issue is not all at-risk people can isolate themselves 100%. We don't have a giant bio-dome that we can move all of our at risk people into. We already see what has happened in nursing homes which are defacto isolated groups of high risk old people; it's still tearing its way through despite staff efforts to prevent it. You also have immunocompromised people who still need food/groceries and have to go out to healthcare facilities for treatments who now have an increased chance of coming across someone infected. I have a high school friend that is wrapping up a round of chemo from a diagnoses late last year. Under normal circumstances, his cancer type is not that serious but now his risk isn't the cancer but instead going into a healthcare facility that has covid patients. Even if we don't overwhelm hospitals by reopening everything, we're still increasing chances of exposure of those high risk groups. 

This is a highly infectious disease. It's just a numbers game at this point. By increasing foot traffic in restaurants, this increases the chance the staff contract it, which then increases the chance they contaminate the food of someone like AB who is trying to play it smart and just get curbside. Same for retail/gyms/movie theaters. You more you expose people and infections increase, the chance goes up that at risk people get exposed in their limited interactions when people. That's how this increases the risk for people like AB and my high school friend who has no choice in not being 100% SIP. You're not just rolling the dice for yourself.

I agree healthcare needs to open back up if they have a sufficient PPE but the rest is nonsense under current conditions. People/groups have already shown their ass about refusing to wear masks and our state govt unwilling to have a backbone and require they be worn. That alone would curb a lot of spread but because of the "but muh freedom!" crowd, it lessens the chance of success of trying to open things back up. Let's be real though, even if we decided to open everything back up 100% tomorrow, lots of people are still going to stay at home and even more are curbing their discretionary spending in case shit gets worse so IMO, I doubt we see any meaningful economic impact doing this right now at the cost of increasing risk factors. 

States still have enough money to float unemployment for a while and the fed has shown no restraint in their ability to make the money printers for brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr so I don't see why we're so fucking giddy to do this now while we have incomplete/inaccurate data instead of giving the scientific community a little more time to formulate a plan/get testing in order/find more treatment options (like Remdesivir). 

With all that said, I still stand firm in saying whoever thinks going to dine-in at restaurants right now when curbside is an option has a room temp IQ. Take it as a personal attack, I don't care. People get made fun of for doing dumb shit all the time so I don't see why this is any different. Just because something is legal, doesn't mean it's the right thing to do. You're within your legal right to go stick your dick in a beehive but now instead of just your dick getting stung, you're possibly affecting others by doing so.

This is worst case scenario of stupidity being literally contagious. 

[XYZ 2,154]

25 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

 

A new epoch begins.

[Axle Hongsnort 210]

I'm sure people in NYC thought that as well.  And, as mentioned many times, it's very easy to overwhelm hospitals in smaller communities.  Keep an eye on West Texas and see how that pans out.  Hopefully it's mild for those folks, but some of those communities do not have spare hospital beds just waiting for covid patients.

This is where the regional disparities are leading people to struggle with global solutions. I know two ER doctors that have had their contract hours dropped in half. They work on an hourly basis and are at 25 hours per week.

[atomheartbevo 90,641]

8 hours ago, Hmbre97 said:

However, opening restaurants for dine in and retail/movie theaters is fucking stupid.  

 

8 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

We’ll have to see what happens. Will some restaurants opening spike new cases? I’m sure it will lead to some increases but not sure it will be drastic. I would have liked to see another 15-30 days of SIP but I wasn’t asked. Or I would like to see more time before the next phase of reopening.

The major movie theater chains are willing to sit this one out for a little longer,  and the studios have accommodated them by pushing blockbusters back to June/July, so even though they have permission, plenty won't be doing it.   Not helped by prominent movies showing movie theaters being a great place to spread diseases.

Plenty of restaurants are probably at the end of their rope.  Even the ones with asshole owners out there bitching about the regulations, are probably taking a lot more precautions than it may look like.  Because those places do not want to end up in the evening news and on social media for causing a fresh outbreak of covid.  I imagine that there would be lawyers looking for lawsuits as well.

And that shit will blow up in the news and social media.

[MonkeyDoughnut 10,803]

33 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

We need to improve the testing (both active and anti- cases) and the contact protocols.  From what I've seen here in Austin, it's been shit, but that's anecdotal, and based on two people I know who had confirmed cases, and another whose dad was confirmed (and hospitalized.  He had caught it from his son who had it).    In all three cases, nobody was out making phone calls saying "such-and-such person that you had contact with has a confirmed case of covid, can you please isolate yourself for 14 days and keep track of your temps, etc."  In all three cases, I found out through fucking Facebook posts.   I had direct contact with one of the individuals, and to find out several weeks later when they knew they knew they were positive when they were around me leaves me pretty surly about it.  Unfortunately you can't fix stupid.

I'm sure people in NYC thought that as well.  And, as mentioned many times, it's very easy to overwhelm hospitals in smaller communities.  Keep an eye on West Texas and see how that pans out.  Hopefully it's mild for those folks, but some of those communities do not have spare hospital beds just waiting for covid patients.

So based on this are you thinking 12 months, 24 months? Later?

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,430]

27 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

 

I quit my job the other day because they wanted me to go into a festering cauldron of Rona at a call center. 

 

 

Username definitely checks out.

[Hmbre97 6,337]

I think another thing that people are forgetting that if you get this, it isn't as black and white as either I die or I recover and am fine. There are lots of reports of younger people getting it, getting hit hard and recovering but having lung scaring and other potential long term detrimental side effects from contracting it.

[Dahobbs 18,311]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

Someone’s death could be on you turning on your gas stove in the morning, driving to the corner store to get a six pack, backing out of your parking spot at work.  
 

I understand your perspective, but there’s a lot of perspective in creating a perspective.  

It isnt about being perfect. It is about being reasonable. I can take reasonable steps to prevent injuries to others in the situationa you discuss. Right now, with no real plan in place to protect the vulnerable, it seems like an unreasonable and selfish action for me to be out in public, potentially infecting someone who is vulnerable. If we had a plan to protect the vulnerable and to keep the actively infected population at a reasonable level, I would feel differently. As I said, the limited reopening by Texas is the start of such a plan. I just see key components missing and want those in place. For instance, there should be a statewide requirement for masks in public places. There should be some sort of systematic testing programming (e.g., random tests + temperature screening at high traffic public places). It doesnt have to be perfect. It just has to be good enough to keep the infection rate at a controllable level. I dont think that is an unreasonable request or expectation. And I think it is entirely possible with the resources we currently have. No one wants to take on the responsibility of enacting such a plan, and that is a damn shame. 

[Dahobbs 18,311]

1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I’ve done grocery curbside pick up the last 7 weeks. The last one I made a few days ago, I watched an older couple were walking in to the store. She had a doctors mask on(whoopee) and her husband with no mask. No gloves either. Is me sheltering in place to protect them really going to stop them from being adventurous whenever they want? Contact trace sounds great on paper. Trying to get olds to get out their smart phones they don’t know how to use to try and keep up with who’s been with who/where every time they go out seems like fantasy land.

 

 

To me bottom line is this: the majority of these deaths aren’t young workers. It’s not people going to games, bars or restaurants. We’re almost 3 months into not visiting the vulnerable at long care facilities,nursing homes and outbreaks are still happening all over the country. It happens so often that not every one can be reported on the national news like the Kirkland one. People die. The ones dying from this will be dead sooner rather than later no matter what precautions we take.

Everybody will be dead sooner or later. But that isnt a good reason to start killing people. I'm not asking for perfect. I'm asking for a plan with a decent chance of minimizing risk. And you're right, some people may take stupid actions that endanger themselves. That's on them. I'm just saying I'd like to avoid contributing to the problem.