Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

48 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

Lighten up, girls, it was a joke. 

Sorry, you know there are those posters where that comment would have been dead serious.  We really need a sarcasm font around here. It would help, and don't call me a girl dammit !!!!!!

[washparkhorn 9935]

18 minutes ago, HoffaJimmy said:

The long term mental health issues that are going to come from this is going to be off the charts. The worst thing someone with any type of depression can do is stay inside 24/7. 

Facts.

[BradInATX 9208]

I agree with Sydney that this thread would be much more productive if not for the pages upon pages of inane discussions. We should start with the daily updates about what the governments of CA, NY, and WA have been doing to offend the handful of posters in this thread that seem to be personally affronted by them.

Sydney, I assume you're just as irate about those useless sidebars as you are about brisket's?

 

Edited May 13, 2020 by BradInATX

[dcar00 14035]

6 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I think that's fair, but it certainly seems as though there are two camps contributing to this:
1) Those who are looking to discuss the pandemic in its entirety, including the political factors that contributed to it. 
2) Those who are looking to talk about what to do about China and bitch about the racial narrative, California, state income taxes in NY,  liberal cities, etc. 

I'm in the first group, and I think everyone in the first group is essentially saying that you while you can pull the partisanship out of it, you can't really pull the politics completely out of it.
It appears as though the second group genuinely believes that what they are posting isn't political.

I'm not trying to make a case for fairness, I'm saying that you can't do this without politics unless the content is fully restricted to information - data, medical updates, etc. 

thats why I keep pointing out we have a medical discussion thread but everyone acts like it doesn't exists.  there is even a what ifs and hypotheticals.  its a veritable covid thread cornucopia on the surly. find the one that suits you best or hell start a new one.

[utee94 15745]

9 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Sure, but the problem isn't really the health of the kids, but the kids as a vector for transmission between families. 

That's been the general idea, and it's certainly true with other illnesses like the common cold, seasonal flu, etc.

But is that actually true here?  In the places that have been hardest hit like NY and Detroit, is there actually any evidence that transmission from family unit to family unit was driven through interaction of children at schools or elsewhere?  I'm curious to see if there's any verifiable data to confirm that.  It could, and should, have a serious impact toward the idea of reopening schools.

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

53 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

In all seriousness, part of why this thread is such a shit show is that a public health crisis requires a coordinated public health response with a high level of social consensus to comply.  It's exceedingly difficult to discuss this disease and the potential threat to social fabric or economic wellbeing without bringing politics into it because our national politics are determining the response at this moment, both at a government and cultural level. That's just the reality of where we are. 

I'll give you an example:
Clearly, me trolling AR-15 guys on this thread last week was shitposting and my time out (1st ever) was deserved. As a lifelong gun owner who has talked guns both online and IRL with many on this thread I think I can credibly say that I wasn't driven by any agenda other than making fun of the Barbie dream house aspects of that particular gun and the look-at-me-and-my-accessories culture that surrounds it. I didn't mean for it to be political, but it was absolutely shit posting. And in this climate the AR-15 is such a powerful symbol of political tribal affiliation that it's kind of impossible to make fun of it without intrinsic political content. After all, that's why people bring the AR-15 gun to protests about a public health regime - the AR-15 is more totem than tool at this point. There's a better gun than the AR-15 for everything related to shooting, but the AR-15 is absolutely the best gun to take selfies with at Chipotle or wave around at a protest. 

Likewise, I believe that the emergence of Coronavirus was a natural phenomenon that could not have been prevented but the spread of coronavirus in this country and the consequent economic catastrophe is a man-made disaster caused by our politics. That's not a statement of affiliation. But to discuss that idea certainly requires the acknowledgment of politics and their import.  This isn't a safe space from poltics because there are no safe spaces left. Our politics can literally cost you your job or worse, kill you. That's America in 2020.

Talking politics is one thing, using it as a forum to criticize everything any admin might do derails threads.  I don't have any problem with bashing the gov;t for its response time, methods or other things directly related to the pandemic.

I've discussed all of those issues with friends on both sides of the political fence, and bashed it roundly for lots of errors in the early stages, but here it turns into a shit show that gets you called racist, fucked in the head, idiot, insect, gay, bigoted, all within 2 posts.

[dcar00 14035]

Just now, utee94 said:

That's been the general idea, and it's certainly true with other illnesses like the common cold, seasonal flu, etc.

But is that actually true here?  In the places that have been hardest hit like NY and Detroit, is there actually any evidence that transmission from family unit to family unit was driven through interaction of children at schools or elsewhere?  I'm curious to see if there's any verifiable data to confirm that.  It could, and should, have a serious impact toward the idea of reopening schools.

 

exactly.

[BradInATX 9208]

3 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Talking politics is one thing, using it as a forum to criticize everything any admin might do derails threads.  I don't have any problem with bashing the gov;t for its response time, methods or other things directly related to the pandemic.

I've discussed all of those issues with friends on both sides of the political fence, and bashed it roundly for lots of errors in the early stages, but here it turns into a shit show that gets you called racist, fucked in the head, idiot, insect, gay, bigoted, all within 2 posts.

You're the same Onboard 2.0 that was banned from this thread for awhile because you couldn't stop talking about politics, correct?

Just making sure I have it right.

Edited May 13, 2020 by BradInATX

[washparkhorn 9935]

Economics - The state of the economy according to the Fed Chairmen in a speech to the Peterson Institute. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20200513a.htm  The transcript for those inclined is below:

 

 

 

 

 

3

Spoiler

The coronavirus has left a devastating human and economic toll in its wake as it has spread around the globe. This is a worldwide public health crisis, and health-care workers have been the first responders, showing courage and determination and earning our lasting gratitude. So have the legions of other essential workers who put themselves at risk every day on our behalf.

As a nation, we have temporarily withdrawn from many kinds of economic and social activity to help slow the spread of the virus. Some sectors of the economy have been effectively closed since mid-March. People have put their lives and livelihoods on hold, making enormous sacrifices to protect not just their own health and that of their loved ones, but also their neighbors and the broader community. While we are all affected, the burden has fallen most heavily on those least able to bear it.

The scope and speed of this downturn are without modern precedent, significantly worse than any recession since World War II. We are seeing a severe decline in economic activity and in employment, and already the job gains of the past decade have been erased. Since the pandemic arrived in force just two months ago, more than 20 million people have lost their jobs. A Fed survey being released tomorrow reflects findings similar to many others: Among people who were working in February, almost 40 percent of those in households making less than $40,000 a year had lost a job in March.1 This reversal of economic fortune has caused a level of pain that is hard to capture in words, as lives are upended amid great uncertainty about the future.

This downturn is different from those that came before it. Earlier in the post– World War II period, recessions were sometimes linked to a cycle of high inflation followed by Fed tightening.2 The lower inflation levels of recent decades have brought a series of long expansions, often accompanied by the buildup of imbalances over time—asset prices that reached unsupportable levels, for instance, or important sectors of the economy, such as housing, that boomed unsustainably. The current downturn is unique in that it is attributable to the virus and the steps taken to limit its fallout. This time, high inflation was not a problem. There was no economy-threatening bubble to pop and no unsustainable boom to bust. The virus is the cause, not the usual suspects—something worth keeping in mind as we respond.

Today I will briefly discuss the measures taken so far to offset the economic effects of the virus, and the path ahead. Governments around the world have responded quickly with measures to support workers who have lost income and businesses that have either closed or seen a sharp drop in activity. The response here in the United States has been particularly swift and forceful.

To date, Congress has provided roughly $2.9 trillion in fiscal support for households, businesses, health-care providers, and state and local governments—about 14 percent of gross domestic product. While the coronavirus economic shock appears to be the largest on record, the fiscal response has also been the fastest and largest response for any postwar downturn.

At the Fed, we have also acted with unprecedented speed and force. After rapidly cutting the federal funds rate to close to zero, we took a wide array of additional measures to facilitate the flow of credit in the economy, which can be grouped into four areas. First, outright purchases of Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities to restore functionality in these critical markets. Second, liquidity and funding measures, including discount window measures, expanded swap lines with foreign central banks, and several facilities with Treasury backing to support smooth functioning in money markets. Third, with additional backing from the Treasury, facilities to more directly support the flow of credit to households, businesses, and state and local governments. And fourth, temporary regulatory adjustments to encourage and allow banks to expand their balance sheets to support their household and business customers.

The Fed takes actions such as these only in extraordinary circumstances, like those we face today. For example, our authority to extend credit directly to private nonfinancial businesses and state and local governments exists only in "unusual and exigent circumstances" and with the consent of the Secretary of the Treasury. When this crisis is behind us, we will put these emergency tools away.

While the economic response has been both timely and appropriately large, it may not be the final chapter, given that the path ahead is both highly uncertain and subject to significant downside risks. Economic forecasts are uncertain in the best of times, and today the virus raises a new set of questions: How quickly and sustainably will it be brought under control? Can new outbreaks be avoided as social-distancing measures lapse? How long will it take for confidence to return and normal spending to resume? And what will be the scope and timing of new therapies, testing, or a vaccine? The answers to these questions will go a long way toward setting the timing and pace of the economic recovery. Since the answers are currently unknowable, policies will need to be ready to address a range of possible outcomes.

The overall policy response to date has provided a measure of relief and stability, and will provide some support to the recovery when it comes. But the coronavirus crisis raises longer-term concerns as well. The record shows that deeper and longer recessions can leave behind lasting damage to the productive capacity of the economy.3 Avoidable household and business insolvencies can weigh on growth for years to come. Long stretches of unemployment can damage or end workers' careers as their skills lose value and professional networks dry up, and leave families in greater debt.4 The loss of thousands of small- and medium-sized businesses across the country would destroy the life's work and family legacy of many business and community leaders and limit the strength of the recovery when it comes. These businesses are a principal source of job creation—something we will sorely need as people seek to return to work. A prolonged recession and weak recovery could also discourage business investment and expansion, further limiting the resurgence of jobs as well as the growth of capital stock and the pace of technological advancement. The result could be an extended period of low productivity growth and stagnant incomes.

We ought to do what we can to avoid these outcomes, and that may require additional policy measures. At the Fed, we will continue to use our tools to their fullest until the crisis has passed and the economic recovery is well under way. Recall that the Fed has lending powers, not spending powers. A loan from a Fed facility can provide a bridge across temporary interruptions to liquidity, and those loans will help many borrowers get through the current crisis. But the recovery may take some time to gather momentum, and the passage of time can turn liquidity problems into solvency problems. Additional fiscal support could be costly, but worth it if it helps avoid long-term economic damage and leaves us with a stronger recovery. This tradeoff is one for our elected representatives, who wield powers of taxation and spending.

The Fed is now punting as the economic damage begins to hammer main street in full force.

[Scary Stranger 1712]

34 minutes ago, HoffaJimmy said:

The long term mental health issues that are going to come from this is going to be off the charts. The worst thing someone with any type of depression can do is stay inside 24/7. 

This actually hit really close to home.  Last night, my 11 yr old who is an extrovert on no medications, woke us up at midnight to tell us that he'd been having thoughts of suicide and he was scared.  WTF?!?!  talk about freaking the fuck out. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

MN to lift stay at home 5/18


And reopen 6/1. Thank god.. didn’t want to see another 30 days of nothing

[StruggleBus 3922]

1 hour ago, babysdaddy said:

Wear a mask, don't be old af, don't be fat af.

And don't smoke cigarettes

Although if a person is stupid enough to still smoke in 2020, well, that's just plain ol' retarded

[Parliament 14135]

And spring will start soon after that!

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

You're the same Onboard 2.0 that was banned from this thread for awhile because you couldn't stop talking about politics, correct?

Just making sure I have it right.

Couldn't stop or just made a random post that may have crossed the line, someone reported ?  You probably.  Please go thru and show me all my political posts. Try again Ruprek....

[jinx 2635]

2 hours ago, dcar00 said:

could be.   first question before you post again 1) were you lucky enough to be born in America? yes or no.

seriously, this thing transmits high volume in coolish enclosed air spaces.  as soon as we got to mid May this was gong to fall off.  the target to start to reopen early May was to get us as close to Mid May as possible before folks started really opening.

1) I was born in the US of A.  But having seen plenty of Swiss and Icelandic chicks, I will reserve my opinion on lucky.

2) I held my tongue as Florida was beach shamed, but I have never thought that a beach was a good place to pass any type of virus.  Sure I saw the sensational spring break videos, but that ain't real life here 90% of the time.

Edited May 13, 2020 by jinx
Because tongue is a weird word

[BradInATX 9208]

Just now, Onboard 2.0 said:

Couldn't stop or just made a random post that may have crossed the line, someone reported ?  You probably.  Please go thru and show me all my political posts. Try again Ruprek....

 

Just a "yes" would have done fine there.

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Just now, BradInATX said:

 

Just a "yes" would have done fine there.

 

Uhhh yeah sure, have you stopped being your wife and kids ?  Go hump someone else leg please.

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

Looks like we may get some answers  good for them

https://philadelphia.cbslocal.com/2020/05/12/coronavirus-pennsylvania-attorney-general-opens-criminal-investigation-into-nursing-homes/

HARRISBURG, Pa. (CBS/AP) — Pennsylvania’s top prosecutor has opened criminal investigations into several nursing homes amid a coronavirus outbreak that has killed 2,600 residents of nursing homes and other facilities that care for older adults, more than two-thirds of the state’s death toll, his office announced Tuesday. The announcement comes on the same day state officials announced every nursing home resident and worker will be tested for COVID-19.

[TXSG8R 3360]

15 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Sure, but the problem isn't really the health of the kids, but the kids as a vector for transmission between families. 

Yea, I don't know how this is even up for discussion.  Kids are the least hygienic of the age groups, and schools are huge hubs for transmission.   You bottle kids up in the same room(s), they touch a lot of the same surfaces, they hack and cough and sneeze all over each other, and then they bring it home to their families.  Shutting down schools is/was just as important as shutting down air travel IMO.  

[JBJ 3649]

I was going to wait to post this, but because we are talking about schools:

Kids 14 and under contract the virus about 70% less than adults.  Olds are around 20% more likely to contract it.  This is with equal contact.

It's only one study at the moment, but there's been statistical and anecdotal reasons to believe kids have unexplained resistance.

Again that's equal contact, so opening up schools to mix a few hundred people together might still not be the best idea.  It's closer than you think though.

 

Edited May 13, 2020 by JBJ

[dcar00 14035]

I really don't get the reporting posters(unless it is a ridiculously constant personal attacks) or asking to change thread titles..it seems so....I dont know...Karen.

 

[TXSG8R 3360]

3 minutes ago, JBJ said:

I was going to wait to post this, but because we are talking about schools:

Kids 14 and under contract the virus about 70% less than adults.  Olds are around 20% more likely to contract it.  This is with equal contact.

It's only one study at the moment, but there's been statistical and anecdotal reasons to believe kids have unexplained resistance.

 

Got a link to that study?  I know the SK numbers showed a pretty significant # for school age children, and that was with school closures so the real numbers of children infections due to school interactions isnt really clear.  

[utee94 15745]

 

4 minutes ago, JBJ said:

I was going to wait to post this, but because we are talking about schools:

Kids 14 and under contract the virus about 70% less than adults.  Olds are around 20% more likely to contract it.  This is with equal contact.

It's only one study at the moment, but there's been statistical and anecdotal reasons to believe kids have unexplained resistance.

 

The flip side, is that one study showed that children tend to have more contacts than adults, up to 3x as many, which could somewhat even out those numbers.  I just did a quick google search and the first article I saw was from NY Times and it cited two independent studies, one from China and one from Germany, that are not conclusive about how much children in schools might affect R0, but they do seem to suggest it's hazardous.

Anyone interested can read it here:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/health/coronavirus-children-transmission-school.html

I'd certainly like to see something far more definitive than that.  In regions that employed extensive contact tracing, they should be able to make some determinations on what role school children had, in spreading the virus.

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

16 minutes ago, Scary Stranger said:

This actually hit really close to home.  Last night, my 11 yr old who is an extrovert on no medications, woke us up at midnight to tell us that he'd been having thoughts of suicide and he was scared.  WTF?!?!  talk about freaking the fuck out. 

So sorry dude. My 14 year old is having some serious issues as well. 

[SydneyCarton 47877]

22 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I agree with Sydney that this thread would be much more productive if not for the pages upon pages of inane discussions. We should start with the daily updates about what the governments of CA, NY, and WA have been doing to offend the handful of posters in this thread that seem to be personally affronted by them.

Sydney, I assume you're just as irate about those useless sidebars as you are about brisket's?

 

Less irate because it’s been less a beating over the head for posts and posts and weeks and weeks of the same shit. But yeah, I’m fine with that too. I get it. We’re people and we can’t have nice things. 

[dcar00 14035]

7 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

Yea, I don't know how this is even up for discussion.  Kids are the least hygienic of the age groups, and schools are huge hubs for transmission.   You bottle kids up in the same room(s), they touch a lot of the same surfaces, they hack and cough and sneeze all over each other, and then they bring it home to their families.  Shutting down schools is/was just as important as shutting down air travel IMO.  

It is absolutely up for discussion.   the viral load is supposedly much lower in kids.  the jury is still out if they are transmitting it in any kind of volume.  If they are they seem to be doing it while being asymptomatic so they would probably never get tested.  In other words you can't tell yet.

for those that want to jump without looking, I am OK with them shutting the schools.

[jinx 2635]

2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

The drive by rants of both sides make me want to find a liquid $500k and go live the life of a fucking broke beach bum in Costa Rica for the rest of my days.  

Bro, if it took COVID for you to want to have $500k and a beach bum life in Costa you are truly living the #blessedlife

[utee94 15745]

36 minutes ago, Scary Stranger said:

This actually hit really close to home.  Last night, my 11 yr old who is an extrovert on no medications, woke us up at midnight to tell us that he'd been having thoughts of suicide and he was scared.  WTF?!?!  talk about freaking the fuck out. 

 

18 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

So sorry dude. My 14 year old is having some serious issues as well. 

My 6th grader 12yo girl is a model student, straight A's, she's really motivated by positive feedback from her teachers and never wants to let anyone down.  

Over the past two weeks I've received calls from almost all of her teachers about her not turning in her work.  They all say the same thing-- this is so unlike her, and they're concerned about her.  I am too, because this is absolutely not her normal behavior, and until I started receiving these calls, she repeatedly assured me she had turned everything in, and all was well.

She says she's not feeling down or anything, but she's clearly not herself and something is obviously wrong.  We're doing our best to work through it, but this is new territory for us,.

Edited May 13, 2020 by utee94

[JBJ 3649]

11 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

Got a link to that study?  I know the SK numbers showed a pretty significant # for school age children, and that was with school closures so the real numbers of children infections due to school interactions isnt really clear.  

No link, but if you search "science.abb8001" should be first hit.

Zhang, Changes in Contact Patterns.....

Edited May 13, 2020 by JBJ

[workswithseed 2036]

I just don't understand how anyone can think that people will live thier life in their house. You have to be the biggest recluse to live like that.

Edited May 13, 2020 by workswithseed

[utee94 15745]

11 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

It is absolutely up for discussion.   the viral load is supposedly much lower in kids.  the jury is still out if they are transmitting it in any kind of volume.  If they are they seem to be doing it while being asymptomatic so they would probably never get tested.  In other words you can't tell yet.

for those that want to jump without looking, I am OK with them shutting the schools.

Well yes, based on our limited knowledge back in early March, I think the most prudent course of action was to close the schools.  And two months later, I don't think there's much benefit to reopening and half-assing the last couple weeks of the schoolyear.  That threat is currently managed, the risk is mitigated, and from a risk management perspective, I understand just leaving it that way.

But for schools to reopen next Fall, we need to actually understand what the threat of transmission from child-to-child, and consequently family unit-to-family unit, really is.  I don't think we can just make the assumption that, "kids are not hygienic and schools are petri dishes."  That's an anecdote, it's not science.  We have time to figure this out, so let's do it.

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

18 minutes ago, utee94 said:

 

My 6th grader 12yo girl is a model student, straight A's, she's really motivated by positive feedback from her teachers and never wants to let anyone down.  

Over the past two weeks I've received calls from almost all of her teachers about her not turning in her work.  They all say the same thing-- this is so unlike her, and they're concerned about her.  I am too, because this is absolutely not her normal behavior, and until I started receiving this calls, she repeatedly assured me she had turned everything in, and all was well.

She says she's not feeling down or anything, but she's clearly not herself and something is clearly wrong.  We're doing our best to work through it, but this is new territory for us,.

My 8th grader is not a model student and suffers from depression and anxiety already, so this is a tough time. But in a way it might be easier for us because we were already accessing support and professional help. 
Suicidal ideation is NO JOKE. You are right to be concerned, but as a parent it's also important to not panic and to provide the foundational environment of stability that will help a child navigate rough waters. My advice would be to seek therapy immediately and to tell your child that you know she needs some support, and that sometimes it's easier to have somebody to talk to that isn't mom or dad. Feel free to DM me if you need ideas. 

edit- it appears I conflated you with @Scary Stranger, but the general point goes for you both. 

Edited May 13, 2020 by Bozo_Casanova

[TXSG8R 3360]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

It is absolutely up for discussion.   the viral load is supposedly much lower in kids.  the jury is still out if they are transmitting it in any kind of volume.  If they are they seem to be doing it while being asymptomatic so they would probably never get tested.  In other words you can't tell yet.

for those that want to jump without looking, I am OK with them shutting the schools.

I'm willing to look at any information that shows the contrary, but the SK numbers show the 10-19 group being over 5% of their positive cases, and that was with school closures.  Below 10 was another 1%.  Schools are similar to mass transit IMO.  High volume of users, high volume of contact surfaces that are touched by all users, and those users all becomes spokes for that hub.  Average number of kids per school is ~500 for Texas.  That's 500 spokes per hub.  Couple the hygiene issues with 8 hours a day, 5 days a week means the likelihood of transmission is extremely high.  

[Scary Stranger 1712]

6 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

My 8th grader is not a model student and suffers from depression and anxiety already, so this is a tough time. But in a way it might be easier for us because we were already accessing support and professional help. 
Suicidal ideation is NO JOKE. You are right to be concerned, but as a parent it's also important to not panic and to provide the foundational environment of stability that will help a child navigate rough waters. My advice would be to seek therapy immediately and to tell your child that you know she needs some support, and that sometimes it's easier to have somebody to talk to that isn't mom or dad. Feel free to DM me if you need ideas. 

Done and done.  He knows it isn't like him and wants to figure out WTF also.  Glad he felt comfortable enough to tell us.  He's pretty mature and self-aware for an 11yr old. 

[utee94 15745]

2 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

I'm willing to look at any information that shows the contrary, but the SK numbers show the 10-19 group being over 5% of their positive cases, and that was with school closures.  Below 10 was another 1%.  Schools are similar to mass transit IMO.  High volume of users, high volume of contact surfaces that are touched by all users, and those users all becomes spokes for that hub.  Average number of kids per school is ~500 for Texas.  That's 500 spokes per hub.  Couple the hygiene issues with 8 hours a day, 5 days a week means the likelihood of transmission is extremely high.  

Maybe?  But your speculation isn't really even a hypothesis, and it's certainly not validated science.

Are the children actually bringing it home and transmitting it to adults in their households?  Are they symptomatic enough to do so?  Are the viral loads enough to do so?  And even if they are, are they enough to cause SEVERE illness in adults, or are they smaller and less likely to result in really dangerous infections?  And is SK by itself a close enough analog to be instructive for us?  Would a Western nation that's culturally and geographically more like the USA be more instructive?  

These are just some of the questions that we should attempt to answer, before making any assumptions about the rate of transmission at schools and how it diffuses into adults in our society.

 

[JBJ 3649]

 

5 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

I'm willing to look at any information that shows the contrary, but the SK numbers show the 10-19 group being over 5% of their positive cases, and that was with school closures.  Below 10 was another 1%.  Schools are similar to mass transit IMO.  High volume of users, high volume of contact surfaces that are touched by all users, and those users all becomes spokes for that hub.  Average number of kids per school is ~500 for Texas.  That's 500 spokes per hub.  Couple the hygiene issues with 8 hours a day, 5 days a week means the likelihood of transmission is extremely high.  

I don't know SK demographics off the top of my head, but that's probably 25-30% of the population accounting for 6% of cases.

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

1 minute ago, Scary Stranger said:

Done and done.  He knows it isn't like him and wants to figure out WTF also.  Glad he felt comfortable enough to tell us.  He's pretty mature and self-aware for an 11yr old. 

The fact that he told you speaks positive volumes about your parenting and relationship. That is not how I found out in a similar situation. 

[gmr548 16512]

Well yes, based on our limited knowledge back in early March, I think the most prudent course of action was to close the schools.  And two months later, I don't think there's much benefit to reopening and half-assing the last couple weeks of the schoolyear.  That threat is currently managed, the risk is mitigated, and from a risk management perspective, I understand just leaving it that way.
But for schools to reopen next Fall, we need to actually understand what the threat of transmission from child-to-child, and consequently family unit-to-family unit, really is.  I don't think we can just make the assumption that, "kids are not hygienic and schools are petri dishes."  That's an anecdote, it's not science.  We have time to figure this out, so let's do it.

Schools have to reopen if we're to have a functional economy/society. I think this is the right take but I'm not sure how realistic it is given what's already transpired - my hopes aren't high. The inverse is also true, we can't just say fuck it and open with a few token measures of protection. Though that seems most likely.

[jinx 2635]

33 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

So sorry dude. My 14 year old is having some serious issues as well. 

This is no doubt one of my biggest issues.  I can hardly talk about the fact my 8th grader is missing the best months from a unique school that she will never get back.  She tears up at the mention of it.  Top that with the fact that there is nothing to do and no one to actually talk to.

This is serious shit that needs to be discussed.

[Foosters 17732]

Some good news out here in CA:

Quote

She had cautioned for weeks that San Francisco would be slow to reopen. But at a news conference, she said the city’s next phase meant that 95% of San Francisco’s retailers would be allowed to open starting Monday. Warehouses and manufacturers are also allowed to reopen, but the city has imposed a limit on the number of employees allowed in each business

 

Edited May 13, 2020 by Foosters

[Trey3216 15325]

33 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

It is absolutely up for discussion.   the viral load is supposedly much lower in kids.  the jury is still out if they are transmitting it in any kind of volume.  If they are they seem to be doing it while being asymptomatic so they would probably never get tested.  In other words you can't tell yet.

for those that want to jump without looking, I am OK with them shutting the schools.

I wonder if there’s some puberty wall connected with viral concentration in kids.  It’s as if the virus replicates itself better amongst reproductive age and older.  

[Degenerate Gardner 4081]

Hearing about your kids' struggles is so very sobering. I know depression intimately but thankfully my kids made it through childhood without any major episodes. Unfortunately I have little to offer but encouragement and an anecdotal suggestion of something that helped me tremedously: 5000 IU of D3. This may be especially indicated with the reduced sunlight we're all getting during shelter at home.

Edited May 13, 2020 by Degenerate Gardner

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

28 minutes ago, utee94 said:

 

My 6th grader 12yo girl is a model student, straight A's, she's really motivated by positive feedback from her teachers and never wants to let anyone down.  

Over the past two weeks I've received calls from almost all of her teachers about her not turning in her work.  They all say the same thing-- this is so unlike her, and they're concerned about her.  I am too, because this is absolutely not her normal behavior, and until I started receiving these calls, she repeatedly assured me she had turned everything in, and all was well.

She says she's not feeling down or anything, but she's clearly not herself and something is obviously wrong.  We're doing our best to work through it, but this is new territory for us,.

We all need structure and it’s especially important for children.

17 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

My 8th grader is not a model student and suffers from depression and anxiety already, so this is a tough time. But in a way it might be easier for us because we were already accessing support and professional help. 
Suicidal ideation is NO JOKE. You are right to be concerned, but as a parent it's also important to not panic and to provide the foundational environment of stability that will help a child navigate rough waters. My advice would be to seek therapy immediately and to tell your child that you know she needs some support, and that sometimes it's easier to have somebody to talk to that isn't mom or dad. Feel free to DM me if you need ideas. 

edit- it appears I conflated you with @Scary Stranger, but the general point goes for you both. 

I definitely agree. My daughter has made almost a complete 180 over the past couple of years due to receiving professional counseling. We communicate very well but there are things kids just don’t want to talk to parents about.

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

4 minutes ago, jinx said:

This is no doubt one of my biggest issues.  I can hardly talk about the fact my 8th grader is missing the best months from a unique school that she will never get back.  She tears up at the mention of it.  Top that with the fact that there is nothing to do and no one to actually talk to.

This is serious shit that needs to be discussed.

It's very hard. There's no two ways about it. Since I travel way too much under normal circumstances I'm trying to use this time to revert to simple things and engage my daughters. I'm reminded of reading the Little House books when I was a kid and kind of thinking how Charles Ingalls would use this time. 

@Brisketexan had a unique perspective on this as well. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

3 minutes ago, Degenerate Gardner said:

Hearing about your kid's struggles is so very sobering. I know depression intimately but thankfully my kids made it through childhood without any major episodes. Unfortunately I have little to offer but encouragement and an anecdotal suggestion of something that helped me tremedously: 5000 IU of D3. This may be especially indicated with the reduced sunlight we're all getting during shelter at home.

Are you? We're all spending FAR more time outside than usual. The walkability of Mueller is helping a lot - I don't think any of us has been this tan in years. 

[TXSG8R 3360]

1 minute ago, utee94 said:

Maybe?  But your speculation isn't really even a hypothesis, and it's certainly not validated science.

Are the children actually bringing it home and transmitting it to adults in their households?  Are they symptomatic enough to do so?  Are the viral loads enough to do so?  And even if they are, are they enough to cause SEVERE illness in adults, or are they smaller and less likely to result in really dangerous infections?  And is SK by itself a close enough analog to be instructive for us?  Would a Western nation that's culturally and geographically more like the USA be more instructive?  

These are just some of the questions that we should attempt to answer, before making any assumptions about the rate of transmission at schools and how it diffuses into adults in our society.

 

SK's numbers are helpful because of their volume of testing, especially early in the spread before SIP policies were established.  Most other countries testing data is centered more around symptomatic carriers and lags well behind SIP policies because of the slow ramp up of testing.  Is SK a perfect analog for western countries?  No clue, are their kids more or less hygienic than western kids?  Are their schools bigger or smaller than ours?  All good questions.  What their numbers show from earlier, more prolific asymptomatic testing is that kids certainly aren't immune.  Schools are large potential hubs that can be eliminated until we understand the virus.  You ask good questions, why would you open those vectors for transmission until you have answers?  

 

[utee94 15745]

6 minutes ago, TXSG8R said:

SK's numbers are helpful because of their volume of testing, especially early in the spread before SIP policies were established.  Most other countries testing data is centered more around symptomatic carriers and lags well behind SIP policies because of the slow ramp up of testing.  Is SK a perfect analog for western countries?  No clue, are their kids more or less hygienic than western kids?  Are their schools bigger or smaller than ours?  All good questions.  What their numbers show from earlier, more prolific asymptomatic testing is that kids certainly aren't immune.  Schools are large potential hubs that can be eliminated until we understand the virus.  You ask good questions, why would you open those vectors for transmission until you have answers?  

 

I'm not suggesting we do.  The current risk is managed.

I'm definitely asserting that the "schools are petri dishes" approach also isn't going to cut it.  This virus has already demonstrated it behaves in ways we can't explain.  It clearly doesn't harm children at the same rate it harms adults.  

Is it transmitted by them at the same rate it's transmitted in adults?  I don't see any evidence from SK or anywhere else, that substantiates that it absolutely does.  It warrants much more closer scrutiny and more careful analysis, than just saying, "yeah close the schools down obviously" and then leaving it at that.

 

Edited May 13, 2020 by utee94

[Degenerate Gardner 4081]

10 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Are you? We're all spending FAR more time outside than usual. The walkability of Mueller is helping a lot - I don't think any of us has been this tan in years. 

I live in North Oregon at around 3500 feet. The quality and quantity of spring sunlight is still improving but nowhere near what I experienced living in Texas. Summers are fucking glorious though.

Edited May 13, 2020 by Degenerate Gardner

[TXSG8R 3360]

35 minutes ago, JBJ said:

No link, but if you search "science.abb8001" should be first hit.

Zhang, Changes in Contact Patterns.....

So setting aside that this relies on data from China, that we all largely agree is suspect, I guess Im not understanding how this really contradicts what we are talking about wrt school age children.

Quote

Overall, school-based closure policies are not sufficient to entirely prevent a COVID-19 outbreak, but they can impact disease dynamics, and hence hospital surge capacity. It is important to stress that individuals aged 5-19 years in Shanghai represent 9.5% of the population (19), markedly lower than the mean in China [16.8% (19)] and other countries [including Western countries; e.g., 19.7% in the US (20)].

 

Quote

Research should concentrate on refining age-specific estimates of susceptibility to infection, disease, and infectiousness, which are instrumental to evaluating the impact of these strategies.

This I completely agree with though.

[Texas_Rocks 346]

Are you? We're all spending FAR more time outside than usual. The walkability of Mueller is helping a lot - I don't think any of us has been this tan in years. 

No shit! We’re using the pool more than ever this early in the year and I’m actually enjoying doing the maintenance again. Don’t have shit else to do.