Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[XYZ 2154]

My oldest daughter is a sophomore in college, but she’s at home and I can tell that she’s in a downward spiral. My son should be graduating high school now, and he should be going to UTEP in the fall, but that is up in the air and I can tell that he’s kind of down about it. I myself am a little more down with every passing day. The only one in my family who is getting by OK is my wife, who’s been sewing and giving away face masks like crazy and keeping herself busy and sane that way.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8964]

Some good news out here in CA:

She had cautioned for weeks that San Francisco would be slow to reopen. But at a news conference, she said the city’s next phase meant that 95% of San Francisco’s retailers would be allowed to open starting Monday. Warehouses and manufacturers are also allowed to reopen, but the city has imposed a limit on the number of employees allowed in each business

 

Wow.. why the hell is Los Angeles saying 3 months?

[Brisketexan 106653]

27 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It's very hard. There's no two ways about it. Since I travel way too much under normal circumstances I'm trying to use this time to revert to simple things and engage my daughters. I'm reminded of reading the Little House books when I was a kid and kind of thinking how Charles Ingalls would use this time. 

@Brisketexan had a unique perspective on this as well. 

Yeah, there's no two ways about it: this shit is rough, particularly on those already prone to anxiety and depression (like my daughter).

I'll say flat-out -- do NOT hesitate to get professional counseling, and to start immediately.  There's no shame in needing help, and you're doing the right thing by getting it.  We still work with the same counselor regularly, and my daughter goes to school 1700 miles away. 

6 minutes ago, XYZ said:

My oldest daughter is a sophomore in college, but she’s at home and I can tell that she’s in a downward spiral. My son should be graduating high school now, and he should be going to UTEP in the fall, but that is up in the air and I can tell that he’s kind of down about it. I myself am a little more down with every passing day. The only one in my family who is getting by OK is my wife, who’s been sewing and giving away face masks like crazy and keeping herself busy and sane that way.

I hear you, brother.  XYZ's daughter goes to school same place as my daughter, and if she's anything like my daughter, losing some of her college experience and that community, having her summer plans just evaporate completely, without knowing what will fill them, or what next fall will be like, is a shitload to deal with.  The boy is dealing with similar stuff, but being an introvert, is weathering it a bit better.

I am absolutely fighting the anxiety, fear, and sadness.  Not knowing what things will be like for my kids, my daughter maybe not getting more of the amazing growing experience going off to college has been, my son not getting the full measure of the great new school he's in (and thank GOD he was there this year).  Worrying about business, finances, our employees, etc.  Going a bit stir crazy from the loneliness (I'm an extrovert -- couldn't be more clear now).  We're getting outside every day -- the dog has never been happier.  But it's fucking hard, and it's wearing on us all.  Oh, and layer on the guilt -- how dare I fucking feel this way, I have a job, am relatively secure, we're all healthy, and it doesn't look like things will be disastrous for us -- just that they might not be as good as we'd hoped.  How dare I fucking mourn that?  But I can't help the way I feel.

All of y'all struggling with this shit, or with kids and family members struggling, know that you're not alone.  Know that there are folks who can help.  Shit, just venting around here can help some.  If you want to DM some of us, do that.  We all have to help each other -- it's what we are supposed to do, it's what we MUST do in this time of need.  I'm sorry that so many are feeling the weight of this world right now.  It breaks my goddamned heart.

[Foosters 18232]

2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

 

Wow.. why the hell is Los Angeles saying 3 months?

LA has over half of all of California deaths, so they are working with a different set of facts. Also, that headline about 3 months is misleading. The Health Director simply predicted that it is unlikely that ALL restrictions would be lifted in 3 months time. I'm not sure that is any different than we already knew.

[workswithseed 2201]

30 minutes ago, Degenerate Gardner said:

I live in North Oregon at around 3500 feet. The quality and quantity of spring sunlight is still improving but nowhere near what I experienced living in Texas. Summers are fucking glorious though.

It's a fucking beating to get them.

[Brisketexan 106653]

3 minutes ago, Foosters said:

LA has over half of all of California deaths, so they are working with a different set of facts. Also, that headline about 3 months is misleading. The Health Director simply predicted that it is unlikely that ALL restrictions would be lifted in 3 months time. I'm not sure that is any different than we already knew.

Yeah, that headline was really terrible.  It didn't match what the Director said at all.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8964]

LA has over half of all of California deaths, so they are working with a different set of facts. Also, that headline about 3 months is misleading. The Health Director simply predicted that it is unlikely that ALL restrictions would be lifted in 3 months time. I'm not sure that is any different than we already knew.

Gotcha, thanks. Guess I shoulda read more into it. Good to see that about SF tho

[Judge Roybeanbag 11856]

26 minutes ago, XYZ said:

My oldest daughter is a sophomore in college, but she’s at home and I can tell that she’s in a downward spiral. My son should be graduating high school now, and he should be going to UTEP in the fall, but that is up in the air and I can tell that he’s kind of down about it. I myself am a little more down with every passing day. The only one in my family who is getting by OK is my wife, who’s been sewing and giving away face masks like crazy and keeping herself busy and sane that way.

My oldest daughter got married a year ago, and she and my SIL are now expecting their first kid in late October.  My son just finished his junior year in college, online. Which being computer science wasn’t THAT big a deal, but still was.  Aside from providing support in a general sense I’ve also tried to use history as a sort of barometer.  That their great grandparents went thru the 1918 flu and married and had their grandparents right before/during the Great Depression.  Those kids made it thru WW2, polio, Korea, Vietnam and had us.   Life is a fucking crisis and a blessing.  You’re gonna get fucked out of something, but you’re gonna gain something too.  

[atomheartbevo 90550]

3 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Have you been to America?

I have been, and as you can see, the place is fucking massive,

[atomheartbevo 90550]

2 hours ago, Scary Stranger said:

But you know nobody of either party would have done those first two at an early enough stage to matter.  Nobody.

I think you will see a much faster reaction in the fall, both at the various levels of government, but also you will see your average Americans popping out the masks and sanitizer early on.   Side benefit: flu season should be much better this year.

And if we have to transition to stay-at-home again, everybody will be better prepared.  But, we have to think about the businesses that are barely surviving now.  Another period and many more will go under.

Edited May 14, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[B00M 6727]

I was poking around earlier looking at some of UTs released reports, comparing with available data, and is it inaccurate to say we appear to be on the 50% distancing curve (looking at cumulative deaths)? Relaxing right now seems like it ensures we will ride the 50% curve

(Pdf link): https://cid.utexas.edu/sites/default/files/cid/files/covid-19_analysis_for_22_texas_cities_033020.pdf?m=1585663777

 

Projections data much like the IHME site:

https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/

 

Lots more reports here, many Austin and Texas specific:

http://www.bio.utexas.edu/research/meyers/publications.html

 

 

Edited May 13, 2020 by B00M

[atomheartbevo 90550]

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

She says she's not feeling down or anything, but she's clearly not herself and something is obviously wrong.  We're doing our best to work through it, but this is new territory for us,.

My first grader is acting more like a middle- or high-schooler, and it’s driving us nuts.  He is a lot more irritable, and while his teacher has been fantastic and pumping out plenty of assignments and what not through the online portal, it’s almost like he knows exactly what is required, and what isn’t.   We also have to hang out around him when he’s doing schoolwork - he’s got too many toys in the house.

[atomheartbevo 90550]

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

But for schools to reopen next Fall, we need to actually understand what the threat of transmission from child-to-child, and consequently family unit-to-family unit, really is.  I don't think we can just make the assumption that, "kids are not hygienic and schools are petri dishes."  That's an anecdote, it's not science.  We have time to figure this out, so let's do it

I can tell you this, and it’s not anecdotal: When I went through basic training and AIT, that was the sickest I have been in my life up until that point.  

Fast forward 20 years, and when my oldest kid started pre-k up through now (1st grade) and holy shit I’ve been more sick in the past three years than in the past 20-30.   Multiple times with the flu, lots of colds, strep.  All the way up to and including mono.

Wife had been in elementary education since she finished at UT, and her immune system has been steady as a rock.  But me, shit.

[atomheartbevo 90550]

We do need to address the mental health aspects.  There’s a gal I’m seeing on the side, her oldest daughter is a sophomore or junior in college, and said daughter is now stuck at home.  Her son is graduating high school and was headed to UTEP this fall.  Her husband seems to be spiraling down a bit.  She’s keeping her mind off of not being able to get out and see me (and probably other guys, knowing her), but it’s been tough.  She’s sewing and giving away a shitload of face masks to keep herself busy.

Edited May 14, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Deej 77676]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Are you? We're all spending FAR more time outside than usual. The walkability of Mueller is helping a lot - I don't think any of us has been this tan in years. 

This. I spend my daylight hours in the yard. Shelter at home doesn't necessarily mean stay inside. Have a house with a yard? Be out in it. Teach the kids how to plant a garden. Need to be on a screen? Phone or tablet works outside of the house. 

[Hate 20232]

I thought there was a theory that school kids were less susceptible to this virus because they already had a high exposure and immunity to coronaviruses. Obviously this one is different, but is wore it had been posted here or I saw it somewhere that it was similar to how the flu vaccine may help mitigate the flu even if the strain in the vaccine was an exact match.

[atomheartbevo 90550]

 

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/nursing-home-investigations/family-files-lawsuit-against-austin-nursing-home-in-workers-death/

Quote

The family of Maurice Dotson, a nursing assistant who died of COVID-19 on April 17, has filed a lawsuit against the Austin nursing home where he was employed. 

The wrongful death lawsuit, filed in Travis County on Wednesday, claims that Regency Integrated Health Services, which owns and operates West Oaks Nursing and Rehabilitation Center, failed to provide proper protections for workers during the coronavirus outbreak. 

The lawsuit states: “Sadly, Regency put profits over the safety of its patients and staff by failing to provide personal protective equipment (“PPE”) during the COVID-19 pandemic. By failing to provide masks and other PPE, Regency unnecessarily exposed its patients and staff to unreasonable risks of serious harm causing Mr. Dotson’s untimely death.” 

West Oaks Nursing and Rehabilitation Center (KXAN/Tim Holcomb)

The family’s attorneys have requested a jury trial, and the lawsuit states they are seeking more than $1,000,000

@Brisketexan @TwiceHorn @Ghost of LL Are we going to see a lot more of these and/or do they have a leg to stand on (I’m not one of the thousands of Surly lawyers but it seems like it).  Jury trial would be beneficial.

[TwiceHorn 31996]

15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/nursing-home-investigations/family-files-lawsuit-against-austin-nursing-home-in-workers-death/

@Brisketexan @TwiceHorn @Ghost of LL Are we going to see a lot more of these and/or do they have a leg to stand on (I’m not one of the thousands of Surly lawyers but it seems like it).  Jury trial would be beneficial.

Against private medical-type entities, probably so.  I say private because it avoids immunity questions and medical-type because they probably have a heightened duty to attend to the health of their employees.

However, med-mal reform may cap some of the damage awards.  It applies to a broad spectrum of "health care entities" and any sort of negligence claim and may encompass this.

Edited May 14, 2020 by TwiceHorn

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19279]

I'd like to see a better study on transmission, especially more rigor around aerosol particulates. We hear all these studies about virus found in air, but none of the studies address whether it was live virus or dead virus, or what amounts (i.e. was it enough to infect). They only concluded that viral genetic material was found. This, IMO, would help.

 

 

[TXSG8R 3362]

59 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I can tell you this, and it’s not anecdotal: When I went through basic training and AIT, that was the sickest I have been in my life up until that point.  

Fast forward 20 years, and when my oldest kid started pre-k up through now (1st grade) and holy shit I’ve been more sick in the past three years than in the past 20-30.   Multiple times with the flu, lots of colds, strep.  All the way up to and including mono.

Wife had been in elementary education since she finished at UT, and her immune system has been steady as a rock.  But me, shit.

First few years of my wife teaching was the same way, I caught everything running around her school.  Now I'm pretty sure I could skinny dip in the Ganges and not even get the sniffles.  Schools are gross factories.  

[Brisketexan 106653]

Against private medical-type entities, probably so.  I say private because it avoids immunity questions and medical-type because they probably have a heightened duty to attend to the health of their employees.
However, med-mal reform may cap some of the damage awards.  It applies to a broad spectrum of "health care entities" and any sort of negligence claim and may encompass this.

Agreed. But also, younger victims are more attractive plaintiffs. Economic damages (lost earnings) can add up to make the case worthwhile.

[ChickenSandwich 9922]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/nursing-home-investigations/family-files-lawsuit-against-austin-nursing-home-in-workers-death/

@Brisketexan @TwiceHorn @Ghost of LL Are we going to see a lot more of these and/or do they have a leg to stand on (I’m not one of the thousands of Surly lawyers but it seems like it).  Jury trial would be beneficial.

Would like some more details on this case if anyone has any. When he says they put profit over safety does he mean there were masks and protective gear available they refused to buy?  Or does he mean they should have shut down and sent everyone “home”? Would TX have denied his unemployment benefits if he refused to work because of the virus?

[ChickenSandwich 9922]

Lawyers/lawsuits could be the second wave of the virus 

[Treefidy 1504]

10 hours ago, The Dog said:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_life_expectancy

Take a look at the states with increased life expectancy and those with decreased life expectancy. It's not what you'd expect. 

(life expectancy talk not going away)

West Virginia doing work.  Coal mines, moonshine, and methamphetamine good life

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[Dahobbs 18195]

58 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Against private medical-type entities, probably so.  I say private because it avoids immunity questions and medical-type because they probably have a heightened duty to attend to the health of their employees.

However, med-mal reform may cap some of the damage awards.  It applies to a broad spectrum of "health care entities" and any sort of negligence claim and may encompass this.

I think you'll start to see cases against employers that refused to allow work from home or who failed to initiate proper precautions. Cases will be complicated by the often contradictory guidance from various government entities. 

[Dahobbs 18195]

"As deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic begin to plateau and slowly decline in some parts of Europe and the United States, the devastation is reaching a fever pitch in Latin America.

Death tolls in cities and areas of Brazil, Peru, and Ecuador are reaching alarming levels—in some places five-times higher than normal death rates—according to an analysis by The New York Times."

More in the link below. 

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/stacked-coffins-in-mass-graves-covid-19-ravages-latin-america/

 

[GRHorn 105]

preach. 

[GRHorn 105]

I will say my kids are younger. 11,9,6,2. So no mental illness here, but they’re fighting like cats and dogs around “distance learning” assignments. It fucking sucks. If school is closed next year, I honestly don’t know what we’re gonna do. Likely would pull them from school and try to team up on some home schooling with another family or two. 
 

That’s gonna be a big decision for the powers that be. 

[South Austin 53157]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

There’s a gal I’m seeing on the side, her oldest daughter is a sophomore or junior in college, and said daughter is now stuck at home.  Her son is graduating high school and was headed to UTEP this fall.  Her husband seems to be spiraling down a bit.  She’s keeping her mind off of not being able to get out and see me (and probably other guys, knowing her), but it’s been tough.  She’s sewing and giving away a shitload of face masks to keep herself busy.

You asshole, you’re banging my girlfriend!

[Bruno Sardine 147]

4 hours ago, utee94 said:

That's been the general idea, and it's certainly true with other illnesses like the common cold, seasonal flu, etc.

But is that actually true here?  In the places that have been hardest hit like NY and Detroit, is there actually any evidence that transmission from family unit to family unit was driven through interaction of children at schools or elsewhere?  I'm curious to see if there's any verifiable data to confirm that.  It could, and should, have a serious impact toward the idea of reopening schools.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/children-may-not-be-super-spreaders-afterall-new-research-suggests-1.5552099

From the article: What Australian researchers are calling the first survey on children and the spread of COVID-19 in the classroom is turning heads in Canada..."Contrary to what we thought, in relation to influenza — that [children] become very large transmitters of the disease in the population — this does not necessarily seem to be the case," said Quebec's chief medical officer, Dr. Horacio Arruda, at a news conference last week..."It really demonstrates there's very little transmission from student to teacher and vice-versa, which is really reassuring," said Freedman [scientist at the University of Calgary and a member of the Alberta Children's Hospital Research Institute].

[Js1 86967]

Just had my first masked-up haircut. Not too weird or anything. Temp check, 2 hand washes. 

[workswithseed 2201]

2 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I will say my kids are younger. 11,9,6,2. So no mental illness here, but they’re fighting like cats and dogs around “distance learning” assignments. It fucking sucks. If school is closed next year, I honestly don’t know what we’re gonna do. Likely would pull them from school and try to team up on some home schooling with another family or two. 
 

That’s gonna be a big decision for the powers that be. 

God damn, put a condom on. Also congrats.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8964]

"As deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic begin to plateau and slowly decline in some parts of Europe and the United States, the devastation is reaching a fever pitch in Latin America.
Death tolls in cities and areas of Brazil, Peru, and Ecuador are reaching alarming levels—in some places five-times higher than normal death rates—according to an analysis by The New York Times."
More in the link below. 
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/stacked-coffins-in-mass-graves-covid-19-ravages-latin-america/
 

I’ve always wondered Why a place like India hasn’t shot up.

I know they’re in lockdown but they’ve got 4x the people in a smaller country and I assume poor living conditions


Brazil is going to get nailed

[Bozo_Casanova 26773]

3 hours ago, Degenerate Gardner said:

I live in North Oregon at around 3500 feet. The quality and quantity of spring sunlight is still improving but nowhere near what I experienced living in Texas. Summers are fucking glorious though.

I bet that's still beautiful though

[Bozo_Casanova 26773]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

We do need to address the mental health aspects.  There’s a gal I’m seeing on the side, her oldest daughter is a sophomore or junior in college, and said daughter is now stuck at home.  Her son is graduating high school and was headed to UTEP this fall.  Her husband seems to be spiraling down a bit.  She’s keeping her mind off of not being able to get out and see me (and probably other guys, knowing her), but it’s been tough.  She’s sewing and giving away a shitload of face masks to keep herself busy.

uh, rules?

[atomheartbevo 90550]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

"As deaths from the COVID-19 pandemic begin to plateau and slowly decline in some parts of Europe and the United States, the devastation is reaching a fever pitch in Latin America.

Death tolls in cities and areas of Brazil, Peru, and Ecuador are reaching alarming levels—in some places five-times higher than normal death rates—according to an analysis by The New York Times."

More in the link below. 

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/stacked-coffins-in-mass-graves-covid-19-ravages-latin-america/

Earlier in this thread, we had somebody from Surly down in Ecuador I believe, and I suggested we setup a business for the coming blow-up, since Alibaba ships cadaver freezers.

https://www.alibaba.com/showroom/cadaver-freezer-suppliers.html

Just saying....

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

 

[ChickenSandwich 9922]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Travis County Wuhan Virus deaths:

Mar. 27:     1 death

May 13:     72 deaths

Travis County estimated 2019 population 1,273,954

http://austintexas.gov/covid19

*updated. RIP #72

[atomheartbevo 90550]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

24,000 tested in relation to a club outbreak.  That's the kind of contact tracing they did to wipe out smallpox - it wasn't the vaccine, but actually tracking down people who had it, which was easy to do thanks to the sores/scabs/etc.

[EE2B 1569]

My first grader is acting more like a middle- or high-schooler, and it’s driving us nuts.  He is a lot more irritable, and while his teacher has been fantastic and pumping out plenty of assignments and what not through the online portal, it’s almost like he knows exactly what is required, and what isn’t.   We also have to hang out around him when he’s doing schoolwork - he’s got too many toys in the house.

Holy hell I feel your pain. I’m not sure we will make it if school starts the year closed in August. I told my wife I didn’t give a damn if they taught the class in the corona virus ward at the hospital, she is going back. I’m not cut out to teach hard headed 7 year olds.

[Macanudo 13259]

Did somebody seriously just admit to having an affair with another married person up thread?

[PhillyD 1298]

10 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

Did somebody seriously just admit to having an affair with another married person up thread?

it seemed humble-braggish.  I think we need clarity

[B00M 6727]

3 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I'd like to see a better study on transmission, especially more rigor around aerosol particulates. We hear all these studies about virus found in air, but none of the studies address whether it was live virus or dead virus, or what amounts (i.e. was it enough to infect). They only concluded that viral genetic material was found. This, IMO, would help.

 

 

Not a study but I thought this was interesting and hopefully relevant:

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them

 

[shadetree 66]

There was a paper on Lancet showing 95% death rate in Wuhan. A few days ago I saw somewhere that a US doctor was saying that they learned a good bit since this started, and they reduced the death rate (after putting people on ventilators) from 75% to 25%. That would be huge if true across the board and not just anecdotal. Maybe chitown can comment.

I know that in Dallas at least the ventilator death rate is now running 25-30%. Back in March it was closer to 75%.

[atomheartbevo 90550]

2 hours ago, EE2B said:

Holy hell I feel your pain. I’m not sure we will make it if school starts the year closed in August. I told my wife I didn’t give a damn if they taught the class in the corona virus ward at the hospital, she is going back. I’m not cut out to teach hard headed 7 year olds.

I could not teach kids that age.  I watch him interact with his teacher on Zoom, and I've seen him in the classroom, and she has everything under control, and knows how to take the wind out of his sails when needed.

But fuck me, he has had some tantrums.

"YOU'RE NOT THE BOSS OF ME!"

[MNLonghornFUKM 8964]

Did somebody seriously just admit to having an affair with another married person up thread?

I had to do a double take on that myself. Pretty neat that Neil Ferguson posts here now that he has more free time

[gmr548 16681]

You asshole, you’re banging my mom!

Fify

[GringoSalado 1652]

8 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Arcing power lines caused Wildfire X.  But as that wildfire spread, localized property conditions -- including conditions that were the result of intentional choices -- had a role in how that spreading fire impacted specific properties.  As the fire moved down the street, the houses that had cleared flammable brush and materials away in a 50 foot radius fared better than those that didn't.  The houses where people heard the fire was coming, and turned on all their sprinklers to help suppress embers falling the property fared better than the neighbors  who didn't react until the last second.

Some houses did a better job than others at responding to a spreading fire.  And discussing the fire, impacts of same, and suppression of same, without discussing the choices made as to how to avoid and suppress a fire results in a pretty insane discussion.  But, here we are.  

So Sweden cleared the brush and the US did not. Or is that backwards? 

I think what you are missing about your analogy is that no two pieces of real estate are the same, so the condition of my fire clearing and weed control may not be comparable to yours given your wonderfully appointed 2 acre hunting lodge and my empty 2 section cow/calf side hustle. Maybe I'm happy for some brush fire, I'm grazing so I don't have excess fuel and no improvements. The same brush fire that actually helps my grass next season burns down your entire hunting camp.

 

That's how stupid that analogy is (or can be).

 

[Rockwell Torrey 1364]

1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

Did somebody seriously just admit to having an affair with another married person up thread?

The struggle is real.  COVID-19 having an impact on all the playaz.