Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[atomheartbevo 89416]

6 minutes ago, B00M said:

3. Has there been any successful example of contact tracing and isolation in the US so far? Surely some small town has stopped the spread and we have proof that we can do it?

They tried it in NYC early on (remember the attorney that was the super spreader).  I've seen it with some nursing home stuff.

CDC put out a small study on a super spreader at the choir in Washington State, although it's more about how easily it spreads, but they were contact tracing and tracking down family/friends/etc. of those at the choir practice(s).

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e6.htm?s_cid=mm6919e6_w&fbclid=IwAR1QI5yQLgUl7O0YVCRUgkjPWSNZTjyG0kjyV_TTBkYg1BuVJZ4KAd-kNKE#contribAff

I don't think they did anything on the scale you are talking about though. 

Edited May 15, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[atomheartbevo 89416]

Gyms opening Monday at 25%.  YMCA Austin is June 1.

https://www.kxan.com/news/gyms-prepare-to-reopen-monday-must-operate-at-25-capacity/

 

[gmr548 16503]

2-3 people per week because they’re being shitbirds.

As an admitted shitbird, this feels really low.

[gmr548 16503]

Can we discuss the benefits of reducing this gene pool?

Who are we supposed to play at the state fair if that happens?

[gmr548 16503]

Without getting all the way into this thread, it’s crazy to me how different places like Texas, Arizona, and Florida are handling this situation compared to California (NY, and especially NYC is just a different animal because of how the city is set up). Out here in Arizona, starting on Monday literally everything will be open with limited capacity. Someone is going to be loud wrong about this situation, and we can only hope it’s Cali for being overly concerned. I’d love to say that i think they are, but who the fuck knows. 

Username kinda sorta maybe checks out.

[HoffaJimmy 316]

21 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

They tried it in NYC early on (remember the attorney that was the super spreader).  I've seen it with some nursing home stuff.

CDC put out a small study on a super spreader at the choir in Washington State, although it's more about how easily it spreads, but they were contact tracing and tracking down family/friends/etc. of those at the choir practice(s).

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6919e6.htm?s_cid=mm6919e6_w&fbclid=IwAR1QI5yQLgUl7O0YVCRUgkjPWSNZTjyG0kjyV_TTBkYg1BuVJZ4KAd-kNKE#contribAff

I don't think they did anything on the scale you are talking about though. 

 

A smallish nursing home is probably the best test case for this. Obviously on a very small scale. 

My MIL is in one. They went full lock down at least a week or two before everyone else was mandated to do so. They had one employee who tested posted- she was sent home and quarantined for two weeks. That was almost a month ago and they have had only one resident and one other employee test positive with no new positives in the last 2 weeks. They moved every resident that was in contact with that employee into a separate wing of the facility and that seems to have worked.

Scary shit but so far so good at her nursing home. 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

31 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Immunity to that particularly strain.  Couldn't we have a flue/cold situation where you have to get flu shots every year (and it's not a guarantee), and whether you get a cold or not is luck of the draw?

I think this is a big reason many people are wanting to ease up on the restrictions.

[utee94 15745]

6 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

I think this is a big reason many people are wanting to ease up on the restrictions.

Yes, people are realizing we're not going to "get through this" but rather we're going to "have to live with this."  It's a completely different set of problems when viewed that way.

 

[dcar00 14035]

1 hour ago, B00M said:

1. I think most informed observers agree.

2. I trust that we'll physically distance, but hand washing will be questionable (is hand sanitizer even widely available yet?), and people are going to congregate indoors where social distancing won't help... high quality accurate information that everyone will see is not happening unless google spear heads it. I don't think nearly enough people would install a contact tracing app, even if it was made by google and apple, so it will have to be done manually.  

3. Has there been any successful example of contact tracing and isolation in the US so far? Surely some small town has stopped the spread and we have proof that we can do it?

 

washington seemed to do it but it also could be they saw what happened in the old folks home that got it first and really locked the rest of them.  It seems if you can lock down the old folks you can really cut down the deaths and potentially hospitalizations.  Florida seemed to have some success there also.

NYC/NJ didn't and it is costing them big time.  I think they have burned through a lot of them and that is why we are seeing it trend down for them now.

[Js1 85104]

30 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Yes, people are realizing we're not going to "get through this" but rather we're going to "have to live with this."  It's a completely different set of problems when viewed that way.

 

I’m done with “we have to live with it.” That requires some things - reduced capacity, masks, and testing/tracing.  If everyone will agree on these things,  we can figure this out. But far too many are in the “nope, everything back to normal, no compromises, no masks.”

[XYZ 2154]

53 minutes ago, HoffaJimmy said:

A smallish nursing home is probably the best test case for this. Obviously on a very small scale. 

My MIL is in one. They went full lock down at least a week or two before everyone else was mandated to do so. They had one employee who tested posted- she was sent home and quarantined for two weeks. That was almost a month ago and they have had only one resident and one other employee test positive with no new positives in the last 2 weeks. They moved every resident that was in contact with that employee into a separate wing of the facility and that seems to have worked.

Scary shit but so far so good at her nursing home. 

It sounds like at your MIL’s place they actually tried.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I’m done with “we have to live with it.” That requires some things - reduced capacity, masks, and testing/tracing.  If everyone will agree on these things,  we can figure this out. But far too many are in the “nope, everything back to normal, no compromises, no masks.”

The tragedy here is we could be so much better prepared for the winter months if we stuck to strict guidelines during the summer months.  Like, now is the ideal time to knock the virus back and get systems in place for the winter but we are deciding not to that because “it’s just too hard.” 

We could slow the spread to crawl if we weren’t so focused on “reopening the economy” as quickly as possible, whatever the fuck that means.  

[SwanderedTalent 5761]

50 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

whatever the fuck that means

no one could possibly be confused by what that means

[utee94 15745]

56 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The tragedy here is we could be so much better prepared for the winter months if we stuck to strict guidelines during the summer months.  Like, now is the ideal time to knock the virus back and get systems in place for the winter but we are deciding not to that because “it’s just too hard.” 

We could slow the spread to crawl if we weren’t so focused on “reopening the economy” as quickly as possible, whatever the fuck that means.  

Nobody's "reopening the economy quickly."  Whether or not people WANT it to happen, in reality it's simply not happening and it's not likely to happen.

In the places that have reopened, there's still a huge amount that is not actually open.  People are venturing out according to their own level of risk tolerance, which means many are not venturing out at all.  That's good, it will keep the spread slow and not overwhelm the hospitals.

Not sure what you mean by "knock the virus back" though.  If you're talking about eliminating it, it's not going to happen.  It was never going to happen.  If you're talking about delaying it, that's what has already happened.  But it's not going to stop the spread.  Once this virus left China, nothing in the world was going to stop the spread.  

Edited May 15, 2020 by utee94

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

4 minutes ago, SwanderedTalent said:

no one could possibly be confused by what that means

Oh I get it but the framing of the economy as something that you can just turn off and on like a light switch is some serious spin.  But by all means let’s get out there and spend that money!  

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Not sure what you mean by "knock the virus back" though.

The things other countries are doing that we are not, like letting the data determine policy decisions instead of, well, you know.

[BrazilHorn 6576]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Oh I get it but the framing of the economy as something that you can just turn off and on like a light switch is some serious spin.  But by all means let’s get out there and spend that money!  

It’s the inverse of the argument about stopping virus. 
challenge is much like cost/quality, speed/accuracy etc we are dealing with two things that are inversely correlated. 
 

opening economy vs shelter in place

[utee94 15745]

9 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The things other countries are doing that we are not, like letting the data determine policy decisions instead of, well, you know.

No I really don't know.  What specific actions are other countries taking to "knock the virus back" that the USA is not taking?  Other than staying shut-down of course?  And which countries, specifically, are taking each of those actions?

And the data that I see, that is determining policy decisions in Texas at least, is that the curve has been flattened, hospitals have not been overrun, and allowing limited interaction is logical and appropriate.

Edited May 15, 2020 by utee94

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

8 hours ago, South Austin said:

But why two weeks?  Why do we think everyone in Georgia is now rushing out to dine in restaurants, go shopping at retail stores, go into the office, etc.?  What if there's a significant amount of Georgians who were waiting initially to see whether bodies lined the streets in the first two weeks before they changed their behavior, and now that the first two-weeks' data is out, more folks venture out, and then we see some sort of spike? 

I'm not necessarily disagreeing that the two-week point is a good indicator of success, but I just want better reasons to buy into that, and I'm not seeing that in the articles I've read so far. 

Edit:  Fair point that I get, @GRHorn.  But I think there could be a difference in the number of people "seeding the economy" during the first two weeks, and the number of those folks in the following two or three weeks.  Oh, and I'll let you lead the dick-sucking charge.

I’m in Georgia right now staying with a friend. Lots of masks, not a lot open. Take from that what you will. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

No I really don't know.  What specific actions are other countries taking to "knock the virus back" that the USA is not taking?  Other than staying shut-down of course?  And which countries, specifically, are taking each of those actions?

I can’t fully answer this without violating the thread rules.  At no point in our collective response to the virus have we treated it like a national security threat.  We are barely treating it like a public health problem.  We are approaching it as an economic irritation and inconvenience, which it is, but the lack of a clear and widely accepted plan of attack against the virus is just going to make the economic pain worse down the road.  
 

The countries that saw the virus for what it was and acted quickly no longer have any curve to flatten.  They have isolated outbreaks they can contain because they prepared.  We did not do that and we are nowhere close to their level of containment capabilities because of it.

[KYHorn 16862]

4 hours ago, Skipper said:

Confirmed cases are trending but so far I haven't seen any data that leads me to believe it isn't a result of increased testing.   For a long time you had to be pretty sick to get tested as evidenced by 28% of confirmed cases needing hospitalization per April 10th Dallas data.  From that same report through  5/12 , the hospitalization rate was 7% for that 1 month period bringing the aggregate blended rate down to 18%.   That's pretty damn compelling evidence we're just catching a lot more cases than we were previously.   

The positive rate is definitely decreasing nationally, with the number of new cases staying pretty steady.

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

Update 5/15/20

Travis County WuFlu Deaths

3/27: 1 death

5/12: 71 deaths

5/13: 72 deaths

5/14: 72 deaths 

5/15: 74 deaths

 

Edited May 15, 2020 by ChickenSandwich

[Guest Lobo]

Texas now proudly in the lead for most new cases.  This is fucked up.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

 

[Iceman 2639]

All of the forecasts have basically been wrong, but keep fucking that chicken.

 

It’s science.  Lolz.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

10 minutes ago, Iceman said:

All of the forecasts have basically been wrong, but keep fucking that chicken.

 

It’s science.  Lolz.

The reason the forecasts were wrong is because previous forecasts assumed states would adhere to the CDC guidelines before “reopening” or “easing restrictions.”

No state has met those requirements before reopening and thus invalidated the models based on those assumptions.

Because of policy decisions, the models now show many more easily preventable deaths. 

Who knows what assumptions these current models are based on but odds are, decisions will be made that negatively effect them too.  

Edited May 15, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The tragedy here is we could be so much better prepared for the winter months if we stuck to strict guidelines during the summer months.  Like, now is the ideal time to knock the virus back and get systems in place for the winter but we are deciding not to that because “it’s just too hard.” 

We could slow the spread to crawl if we weren’t so focused on “reopening the economy” as quickly as possible, whatever the fuck that means.  

How long do you think our economy can go on in its present state before we actually crater the whole thing, and can't restart it ?  How long do you think people can go without work before they lose everything ? 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Oh I get it but the framing of the economy as something that you can just turn off and on like a light switch is some serious spin.  But by all means let’s get out there and spend that money!  

Well when you have 30% unemployment it makes it damned hard to restart an economy.

[Js1 85104]

15 minutes ago, Iceman said:

All of the forecasts have basically been wrong, but keep fucking that chicken.

 

It’s science.  Lolz.

Shocking. A Tech grad who doesn’t believe science/medicine when it come to a contagious virus. 

[Wulaw Horn 18980]

Look, if anyone says reopening won’t lead to more cases or deaths than no reopening they are a moron. And I’m on team reopen completely. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

Just now, Js1 said:

Shocking. A Tech grad who doesn’t believe science/medicine when it come to a contagious virus. 

For the folks who aren’t keeping up, this is a herpes joke.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Because of policy decisions, the models now show many more easily preventable deaths. 

I know you won’t listen to anything but your agenda, but most deaths, beyond dying of old age, are preventable if we all stay home.

1 minute ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

How long do you think our economy can go on in its present state before we actually crater the whole thing, and can't restart it ?  How long do you think people can go without work before they lose everything ? 

He doesn’t care because he only wants to focus on that which supports his agenda.

 

The deaths which are happening and what will continue to happen sucks, no doubt about it. What will suck more is adding the Greatest Depression for the next decade to go along with their his new permanent virus.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I can’t fully answer this without violating the thread rules.  At no point in our collective response to the virus have we treated it like a national security threat.  We are barely treating it like a public health problem.  We are approaching it as an economic irritation and inconvenience, which it is, but the lack of a clear and widely accepted plan of attack against the virus is just going to make the economic pain worse down the road.  
 

The countries that saw the virus for what it was and acted quickly no longer have any curve to flatten.  They have isolated outbreaks they can contain because they prepared.  We did not do that and we are nowhere close to their level of containment capabilities because of it.

List the countries, and their populations please.

[Iceman 2639]

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Look, if anyone says reopening won’t lead to more cases or deaths than no reopening they are a moron. And I’m on team reopen completely. 

IDGAF about cases.

What are the incremental deaths?  That has not been defined.  It's "mush math"  or science (?)

 

Numbers are pushed for certain narratives, while ignoring key factors.   keep pushing 'science.'

Edited May 15, 2020 by Iceman

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

Just now, Onboard 2.0 said:

How long do you think our economy can go on in its present state before we actually crater the whole thing, and can't restart it ?  How long do you think people can go without work before they lose everything ? 

The economy is going to have to change regardless of policy decisions.  Much of the economy is not coming back for the foreseeable future.  The government cannot force consumers to behave like they did six months ago with C19 outbreaks everywhere, no matter how hard they try.

By not catching up to virus before reopening, consumers are going to feel less safe and less likely to spend like they previously were. Hear me now and believe me later, this gambit to “restart the economy” prematurely will backfire.  

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

3 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

12 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

 

He doesn’t care because he only wants to focus on that which supports his agenda

I have no agenda in this, I pray to god the right decisions are being made. I hope I’m embarrassingly wrong on all of this. But when you see someone pissing in their own face, you start to question their judgment. 

Edited May 15, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Iceman 2639]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Shocking. A Tech grad who doesn’t believe science/medicine when it come to a contagious virus. 

shocking...a mouthbreather who believes everything his team tells him.

[Js1 85104]

7 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

The deaths which are happening and what will continue to happen sucks, no doubt about it. What will suck more is adding the Greatest Depression for the next decade to go along with their his new permanent virus.

Sacrificing lives needlessly for the economy is also an agenda but don’t let that stop you from complaining about Hugo. 

You do you, broski 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The economy is going to have to change regardless of policy decisions.  Much of the economy is not coming back for the foreseeable future.  The government cannot force consumers to behave like they did six months ago with C19 outbreaks everywhere, no matter how hard they try.

By not catching up to virus before reopening, consumers are going to feel less safe and less likely to spend like they previously were. Hear me now and believe me later, this gambit to “restart the economy” prematurely will backfire.  

That's a bIg demand you're making about the economy having to change.  This isn't a permanent condition, just like the pandemic of 1919 wasn't.  

People want to get back to work, they want to get back to their lives, and no one is going to have to force them to want to spend money.  I personally think you love this.

[Js1 85104]

There’s more important things than living! 

[atomheartbevo 89416]

2 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

We could slow the spread to crawl if we weren’t so focused on “reopening the economy” as quickly as possible, whatever the fuck that means.  

What do you do for a living?  Not an attack or anything, just a question, because you don’t seem to understand that a lot of people are hurting, and there are no stimulus checks on the horizon for those folks.  That $1,200 or whatever they got is gone.   

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

I need to borrow $42 million dollars.

[Js1 85104]

Just now, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I need to borrow $42 million dollars.

Dildo futures are exploding!  

[Sgt Hulk 13647]

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

What do you do for a living?  Not an attack or anything, just a question, because you don’t seem to understand that a lot of people are hurting, and there are no stimulus checks on the horizon for those folks.  That $1,200 or whatever they got is gone.   

easy to sit at home teleworking telling folks with no money coming in to stay at home and dont worry about the economy.  

[Hugo Stiglitz 23356]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

What do you do for a living?

I’m a dildo salesman. 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Sacrificing lives needlessly for the economy is also an agenda but don’t let that stop you from complaining about Hugo. 

You do you, broski 

The fact that you think the two are mutually exclusive is embarrassing. My agenda is what’s best for the future of the vast majority of people in this country. 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

There’s more important things than living! 

Surviving and living are two different things, IMO.

[Incredulity 11563]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I’m a dildo 

Fify

[Iceman 2639]

You can google the fuck out of almost anything, but finding the total deaths in the US through APR '19 and APR '20 is damned near impossible.

 

Weird as fuck, eh?

[Bozo_Casanova 26279]

15 minutes ago, Iceman said:

IDGAF about cases.

What are the incremental deaths?  That has not been defined.  It's "mush math"  or science (?)

 

Numbers are pushed for certain narratives, while ignoring key factors.   keep pushing 'science.'

Herpes AND syphlis? Tragic.