Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[atomheartbevo 89,409]

3 hours ago, Homercles said:

Why the hell don’t y’all put him on ignore?

This thread, similar to some of the recruiting and football threads, would be a lot better if a lot more people used the ignore features.  

[atomheartbevo 89,409]

29 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Pancho’s was a place parents could take a herd of young kids who wanted to compete on how many items they could eat in a sitting.   You scored 1 pt for a taco, flauta, enchilada, etc, and 1/2 pt for rice/beans.   High score...”wins”?

Rauncho’s All-You-Can-Stand.  If there was one in Austin, I’d be bringing the kids on a weekly basis.   It was a glorious place to eat as a kid.  As an adult approaching middle age, it makes me....hesitate.

[Poe It Up 126]

I randomly listened to Rogan’s podcast and he said (or his guest, can’t remember) that the average age of death from Covid is 81, which is actually older than the current life expectancy in our country. Is this true? These days I don’t believe anyone. 

[Bevo 13,525]

7 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

I randomly listened to Rogan’s podcast and he said (or his guest, can’t remember) that the average age of death from Covid is 81, which is actually older than the current life expectancy in our country. Is this true? These days I don’t believe anyone. 

Then why does it matter what I tell you?

[B00M 6,280]

18 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Well, I mean, they can fucking UN die. 1 more projected death would be an increase in deaths. Those do appear to project decreasing rates of death, which is what we're hoping for right now.

[Brisketexan 104,561]

23 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Nobody is ignoring it, genius,  that's the point. Try to keep up.

Exactly.  I mean, to discuss this, people are citing to 1) broad-reach media stories that are reporting on 2) ongoing investigations of the issue.

So, we live in a world where "broad media coverage of active investigations" = "ignoring" a topic.

It's an important area of inquiry.  Old folks homes are clearly a source of material vulnerability.  Any effort to reduce the number of total deaths should have a significant focus on how we handle such facilities to prevent/reduce the spread of the illness in them.  And certainly, if some actions already taken have been COUNTER-productive, we need to learn from those.

The number of people arguing differently is.....zero.

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

44 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Your story has become tiresome 

Oh OK I'll get you a different one.  You want one with a frog turning into a handsome prince ?

[SHOOTER12 8,788]

12 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

The I-35 project?  Jesus 

Good news/bad news.  We were all negative except my lead man for the drilling crew..(it was his wife who tested positive initially)

[ChickenSandwich 9,798]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Exactly.  I mean, to discuss this, people are citing to 1) broad-reach media stories that are reporting on 2) ongoing investigations of the issue.

So, we live in a world where "broad media coverage of active investigations" = "ignoring" a topic.

It's an important area of inquiry.  Old folks homes are clearly a source of material vulnerability.  Any effort to reduce the number of total deaths should have a significant focus on how we handle such facilities to prevent/reduce the spread of the illness in them.  And certainly, if some actions already taken have been COUNTER-productive, we need to learn from those.

The number of people arguing differently is.....zero.

We live in a world where Hugo and the Cabal completely ignore it because it interferes with the preferred narrative. 

[Poe It Up 126]

7 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Then why does it matter what I tell you?

Because sweet lies feel good. 

[Guest Lobo]

1 minute ago, ChickenSandwich said:

We live in a world where Hugo and the Cabal completely ignore it because it interferes with the preferred narrative. 

Completely ignore what?  hugo is a fucking shithead.  But his ignorance of rules pales in comparison to the rest of us completely ignoring weird shit like facts, maths, science, datum, virology, experts, and general common sense.  If Hugo is an ignorant asshole, I'd love to know what the rest of us fucksticks are termed.  

[Brisketexan 104,561]

Just now, ChickenSandwich said:

We live in a world where Hugo and the Cabal completely ignore it because it interferes with the preferred narrative. 

Do we?  I think I am considered part of that pejorative "cabal," and in response to literally the first mention of the investigations into the practices of keeping patients in homes/sending them back, I chimed in to agree that it needs to be investigated and addressed.

I know that it's comforting to think that you stand as a beacon of patriotic truth, alone, flag planted so firmly to make Mt. Suribachi jealous, but your delusions don't make it true.

Most of us want to figure out a sound, multi-dimensional and multi-disciplinary approach to managing this disease, learning from data and even mistakes at every step along the way, so that we can achieve the goal of a relatively functional society and economy without an out-of-control serious illness sooner rather than later.  But, you know, cabal and all that.

[Captainant 27,442]

18 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

I randomly listened to Rogan’s podcast and he said (or his guest, can’t remember) that the average age of death from Covid is 81, which is actually older than the current life expectancy in our country. Is this true? These days I don’t believe anyone. 

Rogan is a good interviewer and has an entertaining podcast, but you absolutely should NOT use his show on its own as a source of info lol. He has quite a few crackpots on, and is known to peddle some crackpot shit such as ALPHABRAIN when he's paid to

 

Also, the nursing home shit is no joke. My dad just got moved to a different room because the room next to his had someone infected in it. Dreading getting the call in a week or two that he has it. Once it's in a nursing home it seems like that's the ballgame.

[Brisketexan 104,561]

2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Also, the nursing home shit is no joke. My dad just got moved to a different room because the room next to his had someone infected in it. Dreading getting the call in a week or two that he has it. Once it's in a nursing home it seems like that's the ballgame.

Yeah....what would be helpful is a simple problem-solving approach:

1) we know that when it gets into a nursing home, it can spread like wildfire.

2) when it does, it kills at a much higher rate.

3) therefore, we need to come up with protocols to prevent/reduce the disease from coming into a home, and from spreading.

Does that mean creating separate facilities for infected residents?  That could be part of it.  Bottom line, there needs to be some good protocols for removing and isolating infected residents, and getting them someplace where they can be cared for, but not spread it to healthy residents.  Being that something like 25-50% of our deaths are from such facilities, this would be a damn sound place to focus some significant preventative measures.

[DaysOff 7,851]

To go back on topic, here's a good editorial thought published by WAPO.  If our goal is to keep the transmission rate very low -- low enough to have public confidence in economic activity high enough so that economic activity gets to a workable level, there's a way.  It requires some money (but sweet lord, compared to what we've already spent, and what this has cost us....), and it requires some consistent leadership (so, I won't go CR), but it's doable: https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/we-could-stop-the-pandemic-by-july-4-if-the-government-took-these-steps/2020/05/15/9e527370-954f-11ea-9f5e-56d8239bf9ad_story.html?fbclid=IwAR0aqf6ov6wMPutlXTdY12EdsXGLdUlCw3RlxaeAM7i0Ne-CXCZRkrVR0gA&utm_campaign=wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

The economy consists of people who have hopes and fears. As long as they are afraid of a lethal virus, they will avoid restaurants, travel and workplaces. (According to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll last week, only 25 percent of all Americans want to “open businesses and get the economy going again, even if that means more people will get the coronavirus.”) The only way to restore the economy is to earn the confidence of both vulnerable industries and vulnerable people through testing, contact tracing and isolation.

I mean, lots of us have agreed with just that approach for weeks now.  And it seems that it isn't going to happen.  But we can dream, right?
Heard an economist on Freakonomics that we lose 18 billion a day from our GDP as the shutdown rolls along. No investment is too large in the grand scheme.

[Brisketexan 104,561]

2 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

I mean, lots of us have agreed with just that approach for weeks now.  And it seems that it isn't going to happen.  But we can dream, right?
Heard an economist on Freakonomics that we lose 18 billion a day from our GDP as the shutdown rolls along. No investment is too large in the grand scheme.

This.  I mean, shit, EVERY problem is an "economics problem" -- human value has some worth and value, and we have long-since agreed that there is some cost-benefit analysis that means that "even if it saves just one life!" is not a valid metric (see my previous discussion of speed limits -- we don't set the highway speed limit at 10 mph, which would save thousands of lives, and that's completely a social and economic tradeoff of risks).

So, we can achieve 1) a much lower number of infections and deaths, 2) thus increasing confidence in economic activity and increasing social activity and well-being as well, 3) all for the low-low price of less than $80 billion.  We would MAKE money on this investment.  So we should do it.

But we won't.  Because cloak room.

[bschoolprof 6,232]

31 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

I randomly listened to Rogan’s podcast and he said (or his guest, can’t remember) that the average age of death from Covid is 81, which is actually older than the current life expectancy in our country. Is this true? These days I don’t believe anyone. 

I don't think we know exactly what the median age is across the country, but various states report the figure.  MA, for example, reports their average (I don't know if this is mean or median) age of death is 82.  See here.  

In Texas, if you download the accessible dashboard data here, the median age of death looks to be around 75.   

 

 

 

[Homercles 10,205]

43 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Oh OK I'll get you a different one.  You want one with a frog turning into a handsome prince ?

I thought you were too busy laying linoleum today? 

[Macanudo 12,925]

38 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Completely ignore what?  hugo is a fucking shithead.  But his ignorance of rules pales in comparison to the rest of us completely ignoring weird shit like facts, maths, science, datum, virology, experts, and general common sense.  If Hugo is an ignorant asshole, I'd love to know what the rest of us fucksticks are termed.  

Yes, but our shenanigans are cheeky and fun.

[BrazilHorn 6,576]

As of a week ago 30% of all deaths from CV19 in the US were found in nursing homes.

Looking at Covid data from the CDC you see hospitalizations occurring at following rates per 100k population

65 + years old - 192.4 per 100k people (.19%)

50 - 64 years old - 94.4 per 100k people (.09%)

18 - 49 years old - 32.6 per 100k people (.03%)

5 - 17 years old - 1.4 per 100k people (.001%)

0 - 4 years old - 3 per 100k people (.003%)

This is of overall population not those that had it but it underlies difficulty in maintaining closure in the manner US has until a cure is found. Fix nursing homes and have those at highest risk (>65 years old and those who are overweight) maintain shelter in place. The current data (as is known to date - more crazy shit could emerge) wouldn't support sheltering in place for all for months more.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,093]

24 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  I mean, shit, EVERY problem is an "economics problem" -- human value has some worth and value, and we have long-since agreed that there is some cost-benefit analysis that means that "even if it saves just one life!" is not a valid metric (see my previous discussion of speed limits -- we don't set the highway speed limit at 10 mph, which would save thousands of lives, and that's completely a social and economic tradeoff of risks).

So, we can achieve 1) a much lower number of infections and deaths, 2) thus increasing confidence in economic activity and increasing social activity and well-being as well, 3) all for the low-low price of less than $80 billion.  We would MAKE money on this investment.  So we should do it.

But we won't.  Because cloak room.

This is a great post.  What is unfortunate is that there are people in power who have completely subscribed to that "even if it saves just one life!" mantra.  IMO, that pits certain groups of people against others.  

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,093]

1 minute ago, BrazilHorn said:

As of a week ago 30% of all deaths from CV19 in the US were found in nursing homes.

Looking at Covid data from the CDC you see hospitalizations occurring at following rates per 100k population

65 + years old - 192.4 per 100k people (.19%)

50 - 64 years old - 94.4 per 100k people (.09%)

18 - 49 years old - 32.6 per 100k people (.03%)

5 - 17 years old - 1.4 per 100k people (.001%)

0 - 4 years old - 3 per 100k people (.003%)

This is of overall population not those that had it but it underlies difficulty in maintaining closure in the manner US has until a cure is found. Fix nursing homes and have those at highest risk (>65 years old and those who are overweight) maintain shelter in place. The current data (as is known to date - more crazy shit could emerge) wouldn't support sheltering in place for all for months more.

This is also a great post, and what I have been saying for over a month now.  Have the vulnerable continue to shelter in place.  Allow reopening with some smart restrictions in place.  So for instance, in NYC, the city has waived sidewalk cafe permits. Allow restaurants to shift seating outside onto the sidewalks.  That way, perhaps they can still serve the same number of folks, but more spread out.  Continue to require masks in enclosed spaces.  

[Brisketexan 104,561]

Just now, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

This is a great post.  What is unfortunate is that there are people in power who have completely subscribed to that "even if it saves just one life!" mantra.  IMO, that pits certain groups of people against others.  

And again, not to go CR, but there is a huge social and political driver the other direction, too -- "fuck your rules, I can do whatever I want regardless of the risk to others.  And I'll show up with an AR-15 to prove it."  We are ABSOLUTELY pit against each other.

And we have zero unifying voice or even a unifying way of thinking available to us.

So, get on the Brisket train -- there's multiple ways out....but we won't take any of them.

[smoky 837]

10 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

This is also a great post, and what I have been saying for over a month now.  Have the vulnerable continue to shelter in place.  Allow reopening with some smart restrictions in place.  So for instance, in NYC, the city has waived sidewalk cafe permits. Allow restaurants to shift seating outside onto the sidewalks.  That way, perhaps they can still serve the same number of folks, but more spread out.  Continue to require masks in enclosed spaces.  

Yup.  Think of how far behind some of our schoolkids are going to be if this continues into the Fall.  While "The Economy" is the loudest conversation right now, what about "The Education of our Kids"?

I get that some kids are raised by older adults, and we should find solutions for the children in those families.  But for your average 5th grader who has parents in their 30s and a teacher that's 45, the risk is relatively low.  The danger of keeping those kids at home "learning virtually" is pretty high.

And that's just the educational aspect.  We're just now starting to hear about some of the abuse cases caused by kids raised by parents who probably shouldnt be parents, and the stories are pretty horrific.

Oh, and a by-product of kids going to school are adults that can go to work.

Edited May 16, 2020 by smoky

[JBJ 3,648]

9 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

This is a great post.  What is unfortunate is that there are people in power who have completely subscribed to that "even if it saves just one life!" mantra.  IMO, that pits certain groups of people against others.  

Media is the enemy of the people right now.  Quite literally.

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

25 minutes ago, Homercles said:

I thought you were too busy laying linoleum today? 

I take breaks, and it's luxury vinyl, thank you very much.....

Goes down pretty damn quick, and looks good (even though I'm a natural materials advocate).

[Js1 85,095]

11 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And again, not to go CR, but there is a huge social and political driver the other direction, too -- "fuck your rules, I can do whatever I want regardless of the risk to others.  And I'll show up with an AR-15 to prove it."  We are ABSOLUTELY pit against each other.

And we have zero unifying voice or even a unifying way of thinking available to us.

So, get on the Brisket train -- there's multiple ways out....but we won't take any of them.

“I gotta carry muh guns to protect myself and others, but a mask that protects me and others? FUCK YOU THATS CROSSING A LINE” 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,093]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

And again, not to go CR, but there is a huge social and political driver the other direction, too -- "fuck your rules, I can do whatever I want regardless of the risk to others.  And I'll show up with an AR-15 to prove it."  We are ABSOLUTELY pit against each other.

And we have zero unifying voice or even a unifying way of thinking available to us.

So, get on the Brisket train -- there's multiple ways out....but we won't take any of them.

I am 100% in agreement with you.  

[Brisketexan 104,561]

3 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Goes down pretty damn quick, and looks good

[JBJ 3,648]

So 300%?

[Js1 85,095]

8 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

 

Goes down pretty damn quick, and looks good (even though I'm a natural materials advocate).

Def about South Austin’s mom, ain’t it? 

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

Just now, Js1 said:

Def about South Austin’s mom, ain’t it? 

Hheheheheh.....I think you can pretty much squeeze South Austins mom into just about any post these days.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

12 hours ago, Casual Encounter said:

We’re 25 trillion in debt.

Fiscal conservatism hits different these days.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

1. Never tell me the odds. 
2.  At least one of those three and change posted here so this hits close to home. 

That was 1 death divided by 326 million

[BradInATX 9,208]

Using hospitalization rates for the population and including people who haven't been infected is one of the stupidest things that's happened in the last 50 pages on this thread. And keep in mind that the last 5 pages have included Hugo and Onboard going back and forth. So that's a pretty fuckin' high bar.

"Only one in a million people have been struck by lightning, which means anyone who doesn't run around with golf clubs in a lightning storm is a little bitch!"

[Pato del Muerto 52,340]

2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Pancho’s was a place parents could take a herd of young kids who wanted to compete on how many items they could eat in a sitting.   You scored 1 pt for a taco, flauta, enchilada, etc, and 1/2 pt for rice/beans.   High score...”wins”?

How much for 30 sopapillas?

[Pato del Muerto 52,340]

2 hours ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

1. Never tell me the odds. 

2.  At least one of those three and change posted here so this hits close to home. 

Do you even scientific notation bro?

[Dahobbs 17,437]

2 hours ago, dcar00 said:

Interesting. Colorado overreported by about 25% deaths from Covid.  Good for them trying to be accurate.

https://www.cpr.org/2020/05/15/colorado-changes-the-way-coronavirus-deaths-are-reported-to-the-public/

 

 

That's not what the article says at all. It just different data collection systems with different processing times.

"Bol said that the 272-death gap between the number reported through Friday to the national surveillance system, and the number of death certificates processed by CDPHE will gradually close as the counties and the state catch up on getting death certificates filed."

Edited May 16, 2020 by Dahobbs

[bernorange 8,348]

1 hour ago, DaysOff said:

... Heard an economist on Freakonomics that we lose 18 billion a day from our GDP as the shutdown rolls along. ...

I posted this earlier today in another thread:

Quote

The growth rate of real gross domestic product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic activity, but the official estimate is released with a delay. Our GDPNow forecasting model provides a "nowcast" of the official estimate prior to its release by estimating GDP growth using a methodology similar to the one used by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

GDPNow is not an official forecast of the Atlanta Fed. Rather, it is best viewed as a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available data for the current measured quarter. There are no subjective adjustments made to GDPNow—the estimate is based solely on the mathematical results of the model. In particular, it does not capture the impact of COVID-19 beyond its impact on GDP source data and relevant economic reports that have already been released. It does not anticipate the impact of COVID-19 on forthcoming economic reports beyond the standard internal dynamics of the model.
...
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2020 is -42.8 percent on May 15, down from -34.9 percent on May 8. After this week's data releases from the U.S. Department of the Treasury's Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, and the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth decreased from -33.9 percent and -62.8 percent, respectively, to -43.6 percent and -69.4 percent, respectively.
...

https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

[Fastbreak 3,957]

On 5/14/2020 at 10:54 PM, Viper said:

an interesting presentation I came across recently. Some of the data was surprising.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/numis-securities_update-on-covid-19-activity-6665965816191737856-IER5/

 

 

Not sure what it means for Singapore. We have been on lockdown for 5 weeks. All non-essential businesses are closed.  I haven’t been in the office for almost 2 months. I still have to scan my ID or use an app if I go to any Grocery store. 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12,301]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

That's not what the article says at all. It just different data collection systems with different processing times.

The article says whatever that guy wants it to say. Fuck the actual words in the article and fuck the enemy of the people.  

[atomheartbevo 89,409]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Rogan is a good interviewer and has an entertaining podcast, but you absolutely should NOT use his show on its own as a source of info lol. He has quite a few crackpots on, and is known to peddle some crackpot shit such as ALPHABRAIN when he's paid to

Yeah, and he was a moon landing truther, and has had Qanon crackpots on, is friends with Alex Jones and others like that.

He can do good interviews, and he interviews some fascinating people (not the folks listed above), but this is a case of verifying before trusting.  He absolutely goes for clickbait.

[Trey3216 15,325]

23 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

How much for 30 sopapillas?

15 points 

[atomheartbevo 89,409]

25 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

How much for 30 sopapillas?

We should start a thread about how Pancho's was able to stay in business for so long, at the prices they were charging.  Raising the flag probably cost them a couple of bucks every time.

[atomheartbevo 89,409]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah....what would be helpful is a simple problem-solving approach:

1) we know that when it gets into a nursing home, it can spread like wildfire.

2) when it does, it kills at a much higher rate.

3) therefore, we need to come up with protocols to prevent/reduce the disease from coming into a home, and from spreading.

Does that mean creating separate facilities for infected residents?  That could be part of it.  Bottom line, there needs to be some good protocols for removing and isolating infected residents, and getting them someplace where they can be cared for, but not spread it to healthy residents.  Being that something like 25-50% of our deaths are from such facilities, this would be a damn sound place to focus some significant preventative measures.

We also need to really drop the hammer on nursing homes that have fucked around during this crisis.  Covering shit up from families/officials, etc.   I had a relative in a nursing home for years, and occasionally caught glimpses of stuff that made me wonder, but I was a kid at the time.   It's clear to me as an adult that they fly under the radar with a lot of practices that don't get revealed until something like this.

[Bobby_Batronic 1,994]

32 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

That was 1 death divided by 326 million

I said never tell me the odds. 

[Guest Lobo]

Anyone else finding themselves in a position where they want to feel closer to God during all this?  I'm praying more, being more thankful, etc.  

[Bobby_Batronic 1,994]

25 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Do you even scientific notation bro?

I wouldn’t have chosen my current profession if I wanted to do mathing. 

[Guest Lobo]

4 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

I wouldn’t have chosen my current profession if I wanted to do mathing. 

You must work in politics.   /nopolitics/butalsopolitics

Edited May 16, 2020 by Lobo

[Pato del Muerto 52,340]

4 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

I wouldn’t have chosen my current profession if I wanted to do mathing. 

Well that’s comforting.