Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[achooloco 1072]

3 hours ago, Chewbacca said:

A friend of mine had it back in early March. He had moderate symptoms but his wife had to be hospitalized for 2 weeks. He feels fine now, but they still test him every week. He is still testing positive every week. Something like 7 or 8 weeks straight now.

This is one weird fucking virus.

yup, that fits with my gf's father situation. this shit is wierd. i'm very much a pro-active measures to stay home, and mask in public, etc but if this virus is just happens to hit us at the right spot and we have few options to get through us...well then let it and protect the vulnerable until we get a vaccine

[ChickenSandwich 9848]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

Chicken Sandwich: Are those deaths per week, or the accumulated total over that span?

Total accumulated numbers since first death in Travis County. 
 

*per Johns Hopkins dashboard

Edited May 17, 2020 by ChickenSandwich

[GreenspointTexas 9662]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/17/us/covid-19-mothers-day-church-exposure/index.html
 

 

jesus

[washparkhorn 9939]

1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:

Galveston seems fun. And fat. 

"Nimiety" is an essential component of the nation's new normal. 

[Hate 20130]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/17/us/covid-19-mothers-day-church-exposure/index.html
 
 
In the name of Jesus

Fixed

[bschoolprof 6271]

Here's a cool public Tableau that gives you visuals of key monitoring metrics: tests, positive tests, hospitalizations, and deaths by state on a daily level (with 7 day averages), along with a 7 day average of % of tests that are positive.  The data is sourced form the COVID tracking project.  You can pick any state you want.  https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

Here's TX:

 

The 2nd picture (cases!!) is what the media seems to obsess over, but you can see pretty clearly it's essentially a proxy for how many tests are being conducted (1st picture).

Hospitalizations (3rd picture) is what we should be focusing on. After a run-up through about 5/7, hospitalizations seem to have leveled off and, if we are lucky, peaked.  Deaths are a lagging indicator, but follow the upward trend of hospitalizations.  The % positive seems to be holding steady.  

Anyway, something to play around with other than yourself.  

[Bozo_Casanova 26521]

33 minutes ago, Hate said:

 

Fixed

 

Hey poor, you don’t have to be poor anymore!

[ChickenSandwich 9848]

Update 5/17/20

Travis County WuFlu Deaths

3/27: 1 death

5/13: 72 deaths

5/14: 72 deaths 

5/15: 74 deaths

5/16:77 deaths

5/17: 77 deaths (total)

Last 5 days: +5 deaths 

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/43b91f7147934b0190119781f81aa896

[Doc Reeves 6434]

Welp. I’m out.

Scrip Clubs Opening

 

[Neonmoon 38130]

That brave journalist 

[ClubWhatever 12154]

That must be the 2020s version of bag over her head

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

That must be the 2020s version of bag over her head

Think the term is butter face

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13119]

58 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Think the term is butter face

This is a new term, COVID face.

[fattyflattie 4638]

Those rules remind me of the time I was in a titter in San Diego, after watching Cal beat the shit out of the aggys.   Went from great night to disappointing so quickly.  

[tx 3 putt 77287]

13 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

Those rules remind me of the time I was in a titter in San Diego, after watching Cal beat the shit out of the aggys.   Went from great night to disappointing so quickly.  

 

don't ever goto a strip club in philly, just a fyi 

[ChiTownDoc 21154]

7 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

Here's a cool public Tableau that gives you visuals of key monitoring metrics: tests, positive tests, hospitalizations, and deaths by state on a daily level (with 7 day averages), along with a 7 day average of % of tests that are positive.  The data is sourced form the COVID tracking project.  You can pick any state you want.  https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

Here's TX:

 

The 2nd picture (cases!!) is what the media seems to obsess over, but you can see pretty clearly it's essentially a proxy for how many tests are being conducted (1st picture).

Hospitalizations (3rd picture) is what we should be focusing on. After a run-up through about 5/7, hospitalizations seem to have leveled off and, if we are lucky, peaked.  Deaths are a lagging indicator, but follow the upward trend of hospitalizations.  The % positive seems to be holding steady.  

Anyway, something to play around with other than yourself.  

Yep - we have said for sometime they should be showing hospitalizations, but you hardly ever see that shown.  At least the a lot of bozos have started showing number of tests along with cases vs just cases by itself.  But I digress, show the damn hospitalizations. 

[fattyflattie 4638]

1 hour ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

don't ever goto a strip club in philly, just a fyi 

Isn’t there one very famous one in philly?  I was traveling thru there regularly a few years ago and by the time I learned of it, I never planned on going back. I’ll try to dig up the place.  
 

I’ll never forget, all my aggy buddies were down as shit after the game, lulz. Then couldn’t even get a decent lap dance. One of the girls said, “so I guess the rumors about houston clubs are true”. Bit too handsy I guess for over there. 

[Incredulity 11682]

2 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yep - we have said for sometime they should be showing hospitalizations, but you hardly ever see that shown.  At least the a lot of bozos have started showing number of tests along with cases vs just cases by itself.  But I digress, show the damn hospitalizations. 

Total deaths vs. total deaths year ago would be a very informative statistic as well.  I saw some of that a few weeks ago, specifically for New York.

[jinx 2635]

17 hours ago, pacman said:

Believe they are seeing 10% of normal traffic...

This is right for airline traffic currently.  It is experiencing a modest uptick from 5% 

[Bozo_Casanova 26521]

1 hour ago, BurntEyes said:

One, you lock the target. Two, you bait the line.

YOU CATCH THE MAN

[Dahobbs 17644]

6 hours ago, Incredulity said:

Total deaths vs. total deaths year ago would be a very informative statistic as well.  I saw some of that a few weeks ago, specifically for New York.

The CDC provides that based on death certificates it receives. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Keep in mind, the data for the last 8 weeks may be incomplete, but the current count is between 68,774 and 92,742 excess deaths nationally since 2/1/2020. It has several ways you can view the data (weekly charts, tables with or without covid-19, percent, broken up by states).  

In the weekly table it goes back to January 1, 2017, and you'll see that nationally total deaths starting in April well exceed previous numbers. 

Here is a table view, notably, the CDC apparently thinks that Florida and California have a large amount of unreported deaths so far:

 

 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Dahobbs

[BradInATX 9208]

I guess wherever all the spam call centers are located has opened back up, because after two months of beautiful quiet, I'm back to getting 5-6 per day. 

[Incredulity 11682]

5 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

The CDC provides that based on death certificates it receives. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Keep in mind, the data for the last 8 weeks may be incomplete, but the current count is between 68,774 and 92,742 excess deaths nationally since 2/1/2020. It has several ways you can view the data (weekly charts, tables with or without covid-19, percent, broken up by states).  

In the weekly table it goes back to January 1, 2017, and you'll see that nationally total deaths starting in April well exceed previous numbers. 

Here is a table view, notably, the CDC apparently thinks that Florida and California have a large amount of unreported deaths so far:

 

 

Thanks, interesting stuff.   

[Armybrat 40866]

So from what I’ve been discerning  from the State Of Texas dashboard, the rate of new infections has Actually declined in the month of May, due to increased testing, and that the death rate has remained relatively flat so far.

Is that correct?

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

24 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

The CDC provides that based on death certificates it receives. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Keep in mind, the data for the last 8 weeks may be incomplete, but the current count is between 68,774 and 92,742 excess deaths nationally since 2/1/2020. It has several ways you can view the data (weekly charts, tables with or without covid-19, percent, broken up by states).

Very interesting. Thanks for posting.

I'm a bit surprised that even at the "peak" (week ending April 11) we were only 30-35% in excess of "normal"

[atomheartbevo 89775]

2 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

The US is about 4% of the world population. Yet according to CDC data and testing in 185 of 195 countries we account about 30% of the cases and 25% of the deaths. Now we all know China is full of shit, but at about 19% of the global population that still doesn't make up that monster gap. Sure, the US is fat as fuck, but assuming China is at  zero testing, zero reported death the gap is still a bizarre statistical outlier. 

China didn’t forcibly lock down the numbers it did, unless their deaths/hospitalizations were insanely high.  Half a million or more dead would not surprise me at all. 

Our numbers were always going to be high, because, as you pointed out, we as a nation are fat, but we are also mobile as hell.   Remember the image of that one beach in Florida during spring break, and the visitors returning to all over the US?

[atomheartbevo 89775]

37 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I guess wherever all the spam call centers are located has opened back up, because after two months of beautiful quiet, I'm back to getting 5-6 per day. 

Some of that is polling picking up.  We’ve been getting calls from different places calling themselves “data collection something something” and it’s all political polls.  Annoying because we’ve gotten a few after 9, from phone numbers in Texas.

[huge 3795]

Go Topless weekend is a scourge on the peninsula.  

[Dahobbs 17644]

Just now, Cheeseweasel said:

Very interesting. Thanks for posting.

I'm a bit surprised that even at the "peak" (week ending April 11) we were only 30-35% in excess of "normal"

(1) Those are national numbers and the disease only hit a limited area of the country in significant force by that time;

(2) I wouldn't read anything into that peak. It is mainly a result of reporting as opposed to a peak in excess deaths. The system this is pulling from is at 60,299 covid-19 deaths compared to the 88,000 that CDC reports elsewhere (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html). The difference is primarily due to the lag time it takes for death certificates to be sent in and reviewed. I expect that chart will look quite a bit different over the next few weeks as the system catches up.  

[JBJ 3664]

2 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

There is an additional big issue with the presentation of cases and deaths without clear testing data side by side.

The US is about 4% of the world population. Yet according to CDC data and testing in 185 of 195 countries we account about 30% of the cases and 25% of the deaths. Now we all know China is full of shit, but at about 19% of the global population that still doesn't make up that monster gap. Sure, the US is fat as fuck, but assuming China is at  zero testing, zero reported death the gap is still a bizarre statistical outlier. 

Today the global case total climbed to 2,887,894 in 185 nations, with fatalities reaching 202,368, according to the Johns Hopkins online dashboard. The US total is at 933,933, with 53,449 deaths.

There's a number of interpretarions and all probably contain some degree of truth:

1) Europe/NA are pretty similar and our virus varietals are also similar.  This might just be endogenous to the varietal of the virus.

2) Tests developed one place are showing to be much less accurate when implemented elsewhere.  That and just test development in general.  If the Germans developed a test 75% accurate in Europe, that easily could fall to 50% in India and/or we wouldn't expect a locally-developed Indian test to be as accurate at the start.

3) Percent tested doesn't always mirror access to testing.  For instance in SG, there's been an underlying breakout in the malaysian population - who for various reasons didn't get tested previously at the same rate as Chinese-Singaporeans. 

[strangulation! 1716]

On 5/16/2020 at 8:31 PM, Royalfan5 said:

I come from a line of dairymen and hog guys for the most part, the hat habit doesn’t get formed that way, although exceptions were made for driving around in Firebirds 

this will be the first line of my novel. we'll square up on royalties once it's printed.

[Incredulity 11682]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

The CDC provides that based on death certificates it receives. 

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

Keep in mind, the data for the last 8 weeks may be incomplete, but the current count is between 68,774 and 92,742 excess deaths nationally since 2/1/2020. It has several ways you can view the data (weekly charts, tables with or without covid-19, percent, broken up by states).  

In the weekly table it goes back to January 1, 2017, and you'll see that nationally total deaths starting in April well exceed previous numbers. 

Here is a table view, notably, the CDC apparently thinks that Florida and California have a large amount of unreported deaths so far:

 

 

Are the Jan 2018 excess deaths flu related or ????

Edited May 18, 2020 by Incredulity

[GopherRock 1765]

The latest entry into the "Play stupid games, win stupid prizes" file. 

The owner vowed to open this morning, and was rather braggadocio about it. 

 

[Dahobbs 17644]

8 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Are the Jan 2018 excess deaths flu related or ????

Yes, that was a bad flu season. 

[Trey3216 15352]

3 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

The latest entry into the "Play stupid games, win stupid prizes" file. 

The owner vowed to open this morning, and was rather braggadocio about it. 

 

Good luck with winning an argument filing an injunction for threatening to open a bar rather than actually opening.  That's pure idiocy 

[ABSR 5321]

18 hours ago, bschoolprof said:

Here's a cool public Tableau that gives you visuals of key monitoring metrics: tests, positive tests, hospitalizations, and deaths by state on a daily level (with 7 day averages), along with a 7 day average of % of tests that are positive.  The data is sourced form the COVID tracking project.  You can pick any state you want.  https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

Here's TX:

 

The 2nd picture (cases!!) is what the media seems to obsess over, but you can see pretty clearly it's essentially a proxy for how many tests are being conducted (1st picture).

Hospitalizations (3rd picture) is what we should be focusing on. After a run-up through about 5/7, hospitalizations seem to have leveled off and, if we are lucky, peaked.  Deaths are a lagging indicator, but follow the upward trend of hospitalizations.  The % positive seems to be holding steady.  

Anyway, something to play around with other than yourself.  

Is there something that shows hospital/medical facility utilization rate or occupancy rate?  To me this is the real indicator in all different locations that needs to be monitored and used to determine the type of restrictions, or lack of restrictions, that should be applied.

In my opinion the main point of the quarantine should have been to not overwhelm the health system and to prepare as much as we can.....and then live our lives with appropriate restrictions/safeguard as appropriate.   How open we are should be a fairly regional measure, with governors sending help to hot spots, and with areas trying to be as open as possible, but monitoring medical utilization so that we restrict or ease rules based on this and also allocate state (or federal) resources to help areas that flare up.

Ex. If a small city/county in West Texas has population 25,000, hospital beds for 30 patients and ICU for 4,  and gets a big outbreak and they have 40 people needing beds and 5 needing ICU they will farm it out to surrounding areas, and the Governor should send in help.  Additionally, the SIP for that county/region needs to be cranked up.  But his size outbreak while meaningful there, would not move the needle in larger areas and we can't treat the entire country or state with one set of rules.

Ex. If a larger county/city has 1 million people,  1,200 beds and has 160 ICU beds, and they have 400 patients needing beds and 50 needing ICU beds then this city is not in bad shape operationally and I would think can/should be managing being fairly open.   

Note: Hospital/medical utilization needs to be viewed as total load, so not just COVID-19, as the goal is managing the overall medical capabilities of each region/area.

 

[Buzzrock 14936]

This is three miles from me.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/17/coronavirus-reopening-shopping-mall-georgia/?arc404=true

[Trey3216 15352]

4 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

This is three miles from me.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/17/coronavirus-reopening-shopping-mall-georgia/?arc404=true

The opinions in that piece are oozing like a festering boil.  

[dcar00 14329]

1 hour ago, strangulation! said:

this will be the first line of my novel. we'll square up on royalties once it's printed.

It should be the second line,  right after "Call me Hunter."

[Newdoc 3448]

5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

The opinions in that piece are oozing like a festering boil.  

That was a basically worthless article with quotes from people shopping. Pulitzer Prize worthy.

[South Austin 52556]

12 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

That was a basically worthless article with quotes from people shopping. Pulitzer Prize worthy.

No shit.  I was waiting for some insightful opinion or analysis.  This was just day-in-the-life of white folks at The Domain.

[atomheartbevo 89775]

Texas state parks opening up to camping, albeit limited capacity for now (those who already had reservations for this time, some sites maybe closed to spread things out, etc.).

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/some-overnight-camping-to-be-allowed-in-texas-state-parks-starting-monday/

Quote

“After careful consideration, we are taking this additional step towards returning to normal operations in our parks by resuming some overnight camping at Texas State Parks,” said Carter Smith, TWPD executive director. 

“As overnight campers are welcomed back to their favorite natural spaces, our team will continue maintaining the cleanliness of frequently used facilities such as campsites, cabins and restrooms to ensure that visitors, volunteers and staff can continue to enjoy Texas State Parks safely,” Smith said.

FULL COVERAGE: The latest coronavirus news in Austin, Texas, the United States and the world 

The amount of existing reservations TPWD will honor depends on the individual occupancy of each park. Park-goers will still need to maintain six feet of social distance from others, and no groups larger than five, unless part of the same household, are allowed.

The department encourages people wear face coverings and bring hand sanitizer.

Tubing reopening

https://www.kxan.com/news/local/hays/tubes-take-the-san-marcos-river-once-again-with-new-safety-measures/

Quote

That includes only allowing tubing by appointment, which is spaced out online. 

Once tubers arrived, they are also launched into the river in three to five minute intervals, depending on how fast the currents are going and whether or not other companies are operating. 

Bus rides back to the parking area will also have fewer people, Gomez says. 

“We have everybody sit in a checkered style. After that, when everybody is dropped off, the bus driver sanitizes the seats, allows for time for them to dry all the way back up to the top of the property and then sits them in opposite checkered seats, sanitizes and the next trip…” she explains.

 

[Royalfan5 2354]

For your livestock update, packing runs continue to edge higher with cattle almost to 100K a day vs. 120K needed from a low of 72K, hogs are back to 375K vs 470K needed, fresh pork values edged lower today but remain pretty elevated, beef prices were down pretty sharply this morning but remain near double normal, but certain cuts are getting discounted now as retailers restock depleted supplies. 

[Foosters 17867]

1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

Good luck with winning an argument filing an injunction for threatening to open a bar rather than actually opening.  That's pure idiocy 

Huh? Are you saying the AG is legally required to wait for it to open and begin doing business before they can file an injunction?

[Trey3216 15352]

Just now, Foosters said:

Huh? Are you saying the AG is legally required to wait for it to open and begin doing business before they can file an injunction?

No, I'm saying it's pure chickenshit  

[clapclapclap 9000]

Still haven't been able to order HEB jalapeno bean dip since last Sunday.

America Held Hostage:  Day 9

Edited May 18, 2020 by clapclapclap
It's like deja vu all over again

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

5 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Ehhh, we are no fatter than central and south America and no more mobile than Europe. 

Even if we were 30% of the cases (not dead) is still way, way outside any acceptable standard deviation model.

So our death rates are higher than every country and our infection rates are higher by an overwhelming percentage.

If we were talking 2 times the global average, perhaps I could buy even that extreme variance. We are talking 10 times or more. 

Mobility and obesity don't account for that large a variation. They just don't.

There's something very BS about those numbers or there's something BS about everyones else numbers.  Now dumping older patients in old folks homes didn't help. Was that something other countries did ?

[FartingMonk 3608]

I think we are going to see that variance of New York and New Jersey being the outliers.  The initial policy of having positive Covid patients returned to the senior living facilities probably has a lot to do with it.  If we take out the senior living facilities it cuts the death rate by half.  28 of the 30 regions with a crazy ass death rate are situated in the northeast.  The population density may have something to do with it, but the long term care facilities are the biggest common factors when it comes to just extreme death rates

[Dahobbs 17644]

26 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

No, I'm saying it's pure chickenshit  

This is how the law works. An injunction is filed to prevent conduct from happening. The right time to file one is after the conduct appears imminent. Generally, waiting for it to happen can negate the very purpose of the injunction.  

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

5 minutes ago, FartingMonk said:

I think we are going to see that variance of New York and New Jersey being the outliers.  The initial policy of having positive Covid patients returned to the senior living facilities probably has a lot to do with it.  If we take out the senior living facilities it cuts the death rate by half.  28 of the 30 regions with a crazy ass death rate are situated in the northeast.  The population density may have something to do with it, but the long term care facilities are the biggest common factors when it comes to just extreme death rates

I'm still in awe that someone thought that was a wise decision in the first place.