Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[BradInATX 9208]

Removing every C19 nursing home death from the US (and not the rest of the world) still puts us at about 20% of the cases and 16% of the deaths.

Meaning we are still over-represented by 500% and 400% respectively.

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

19 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

There's something very BS about those numbers or there's something BS about everyones else numbers. 

i would just completely ignore them, then.

 

[bullzak 411]

As far as death numbers I think per capita is the only meaningful number. Italy was 520/million. US is 270/million. Still high, but when you take out the nursing homes, and so much of that was unforced error, I bet you get well below 200/million. 

Quoting gross numbers on anything is kinda bullshit. Magnitude and relativity is what counts. 

[EuroHorn 3204]

 

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Quoting gross numbers on anything is kinda bullshit. Magnitude and relativity is what counts. 

You're right. So you'd agree that a country with 4% of the world's population and 25% of the world's deaths is massively over-represented?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

 

Let’s gooo!


MLB should start tomorrow with full stadiums now

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

37 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Still haven't been able to order HEB jalapeno bean dip since last Sunday.

America Held Hostage:  Day 9

Thoughts and Prayers

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

3 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Well when you compare, using per capita mortality rates in Belgium (16.4), France(15.6), UK(14.2), Italy(14.2) Spain(11.9) Canada(7.5) Brazil (6.7) US (6.0) Iran (5.8 yeah yeah it doesn't belong) and Germany (4.5) the fact that we are still that high globally is even stranger.

So either we just have weaker immune systems than the rest of the world, we have older more at risk people, bad doctors, poor health care response or something is probably off in the reporting.

Definetlynothollywoodcolt, yeah funny.........  How about we find out why there's such a big difference, you know facts, and shit.....

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Thoughts and Prayers

A an alternate recipe would have been more meaningful....

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

27 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

There's something very BS about those numbers or there's something BS about everyones else numbers.  Now dumping older patients in old folks homes didn't help. Was that something other countries did ?

The numbers are BS because you don’t like numbers or for a reason that you can articulate?
 

We have a highly affluent, mobile population, and our response started far too late and has been incoherent. This is the result that makes sense. It was widely predicted which is why we had a pandemic plan in place.
Things are highly likely to be as they appear to in this moment. Why is that hard to believe? 

[BradInATX 9208]

6 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The numbers are BS because you don’t like numbers or for a reason that you can articulate?
 

We have a highly affluent, mobile population, and our response started far too late and has been incoherent. This is the result that makes sense. It was widely predicted which is why we had a pandemic plan in place.
Things are highly likely to be as they appear to in this moment. Why is that hard to believe? 

 

You'll have to give him a little while. The easily disproven "it's all New York's fault" theory took him a lot of time and energy. He's going to have to spend a bit of time back at the drawing board.

Edited May 18, 2020 by BradInATX

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

What was our percentage of pre existing conditions again?

[Captainant 27404]

Just now, Casual Encounter said:

What was our percentage of pre existing conditions again?

Obesity is a pre existing condition and comorbidity in the context of COVID. So, uh, pretty high.

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

11 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

A an alternate recipe would have been more meaningful....

The Frito brand bean dip is pretty fucking good. 

[Anastasis 23390]

Our testing and reporting is far superior than the rest of these countries.  It's a detection bias until proven otherwise. 

 

 

1	China(incl. Hong Kong, Macao)	1,426,279,708	151
2	India	1,338,558,742	450
3	United States(incl. overseas territories)	327,527,107	36
4	Indonesia	263,564,697	146
5	Brazil	210,193,253	25
6	Pakistan	194,749,053	253
7	Nigeria	185,313,910	204
8	Bangladesh	165,552,994	1272
9	Russia	144,154,086	9
10	Mexico	129,132,150	66

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

13 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Definetlynothollywoodcolt, yeah funny.........  How about we find out why there's such a big difference, you know facts, and shit.....

let me know what you find out!

[Dahobbs 17420]

10 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

So either we just have weaker immune systems than the rest of the world, we have older more at risk people, bad doctors, poor health care response or something is probably off in the reporting.

Definetlynothollywoodcolt, yeah funny.........  How about we find out why there's such a big difference, you know facts, and shit.....

Our ratio of deaths to cases isn't particularly high. In fact, the US CFR is significantly under the global CFR. So, I wouldn't think "bad doctors" or even having more "at risk people" is a substantial driver.  We just have more reported cases than other places. Several possible reasons include:

(1) The US was hit earlier than large portions of the world (e.g., South America, Africa, India) and thus has had more time for the virus to spread;

(2) The US response was poor in terms of suppressing the spread of the virus, particularly early on;

(3) Other areas are under reporting cases/deaths;

(4) The US is over reporting cases/deaths;

 

I would bet on a combination of (1), (2), and (3) all leading to the disparity. 

[Enchubben 5509]

13 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The numbers are BS because you don’t like numbers or for a reason that you can articulate?
 

We have a highly affluent, mobile population, and our response started far too late and has been incoherent. This is the result that makes sense. It was widely predicted which is why we had a pandemic plan in place.
Things are highly likely to be as they appear to in this moment. Why is that hard to believe? 

The correct response to half of your comment requires a trip to the Cloakroom. 

[The Dog 43785]

17 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The numbers are BS because you don’t like numbers or for a reason that you can articulate?
 

We have a highly affluent, mobile population, and our response started far too late and has been incoherent. This is the result that makes sense. It was widely predicted which is why we had a pandemic plan in place.
Things are highly likely to be as they appear to in this moment. Why is that hard to believe? 

I think it's that the disease took hold here at the same time as it did in Europe or much sooner than we realized at the time but we didn't have the urgency at the time since our medical system wasn't being overrun (at least to the extent of the horror shows we were hearing about in China and Italy). Obviously we are now aware that it was here much sooner than anyone originally thought and I think that played a pretty big role in the decision making. 

Edited May 18, 2020 by The Dog

[BradInATX 9208]

Just now, Enchubben said:

The correct response to half of your comment requires a trip to the Cloakroom. 

Not if we're talking about New York or Washington State or California!

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

6 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The numbers are BS because you don’t like numbers or for a reason that you can articulate?
 

We have a highly affluent, mobile population, and our response started far too late and has been incoherent. This is the result that makes sense. It was widely predicted which is why we had a pandemic plan in place.
Things are highly likely to be as they appear to in this moment. Why is that hard to believe? 

Oy vey, and you do like the numbers ?  You think we're actually 7-12 % higher in mortality rates that most other countries ?  If they're accurate they're accurate. I think numbers across the western world should be sort of in line with each other unless there are outlying reasons that can explain the difference. Turfing old people back to assisted care living facilities is a valid reason for higher numbers, if we were unique in that practice.

Screw that far too late schtick. Dr. Faucci was unsure of how people should be acting in early March with regard to precautions.  If we stated far too late why isn't Italy pretty much a ghost country ?  They had an explosion right after Christmas, and their health care system is probably not more efficient as ours.  For this to have been headed off (maybe), January 1 would have been the date required for the measures we've since taken.

 

 

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

9 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Our ratio of deaths to cases isn't particularly high. In fact, the US CFR is significantly under the global CFR. So, I wouldn't think "bad doctors" or even having more "at risk people" is a substantial driver.  We just have more reported cases than other places. Several possible reasons include:

(1) The US was hit earlier than large portions of the world (e.g., South America, Africa, India) and thus has had more time for the virus to spread;

(2) The US response was poor in terms of suppressing the spread of the virus, particularly early on;

(3) Other areas are under reporting cases/deaths;

(4) The US is over reporting cases/deaths;

 

I would bet on a combination of (1), (2), and (3) all leading to the disparity. 

if you're willing to remove (2) from your list of reasons, i believe we can come to some agreement here. 

if not, well, fuck china?

Edited May 18, 2020 by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

I think numbers across the western world should be sort of in line with each other unless there are outlying reasons that can explain the difference. 

You're getting there! You can do it!

[B00M 6280]

1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

It should be the second line,  right after "Call me Hunter."

We should write a collective book. 

[atomheartbevo 89396]

28 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

So either we just have weaker immune systems than the rest of the world, we have older more at risk people, bad doctors, poor health care response or something is probably off in the reporting.

Definetlynothollywoodcolt, yeah funny.........  How about we find out why there's such a big difference, you know facts, and shit.....

Outside of China, Russia, and a dozen or so other countries, most countries have a civilian populace that is capable of uploading/leaking stuff to social media, which makes it difficult for large-scale cover-ups.  Plus, if other countries were trying to cover up large-scale shitshows relating to covid, we have intelligence agencies that would detect it, and we have people in our government that would make sure the world knows those countries are trying to cover up said shitshows

But we have plenty of fatties, we like to travel, and we have a shit-ton of people who did not stay in during our "lockdowns", and we tried to be more honest in our reporting of numbers and we could actually test,.  So that's a starting point.

Edited May 18, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Dahobbs 17420]

1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

if you're willing to remove (3) from your list of reasons, i believe we can come to some agreement here. 

if not, well, fuck china?

(3)? Why is that? I'm pretty confident that China, India, Russia, and all of Africa and South and Central America are majorly under reporting cases. I'm not saying it is necessarily intentional (except for China, that is intentional) as opposed to limited ability to gather real time disease information. 

[C-Man 27029]

As per Gov Abbott, we are going to 50% capacity at restaurants and bars are open to 25% capacity starting Friday.

Summer school is open 6/1 if districts choose and it sounds like all summer camps are OK to proceed starting then too.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

(3)? Why is that? I'm pretty confident that China, India, Russia, and all of Africa and South and Central America are majorly under reporting cases. I'm not saying it is necessarily intentional (except for China, that is intentional) as opposed to limited ability to gather real time disease information. 

haha i meant (2). then i saw onboard's post right above mine and it was so on brand.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Our ratio of deaths to cases isn't particularly high. In fact, the US CFR is significantly under the global CFR. So, I wouldn't think "bad doctors" or even having more "at risk people" is a substantial driver.  We just have more reported cases than other places. Several possible reasons include:

(1) The US was hit earlier than large portions of the world (e.g., South America, Africa, India) and thus has had more time for the virus to spread;

(2) The US response was poor in terms of suppressing the spread of the virus, particularly early on;

(3) Other areas are under reporting cases/deaths;

(4) The US is over reporting cases/deaths;

 

I would bet on a combination of (1), (2), and (3) all leading to the disparity. 

(1) Italy was seeing lots off cases in January I believe.  That's when we would have had to start the current measures. That was a mistake on our part for damn sure to not get out in front of this.

(2). What date would you have taken the measure we have in place now ? 

(3) Yeah I kind of ignore the low, improbable numbers.

(4). I figure every country has over reported cases thru just poor or sloppy accounting.

I agree with your last comments, and your examples are what I was thinking about.  

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I think it's that the disease took hold here at the same time as it did in Europe or much sooner than we realized at the time but we didn't have the urgency at the time since our medical system wasn't being overrun. Obviously we are now aware that it was here much sooner than anyone originally thought and I think that played a pretty big role in the decision making. 

This is 100% true, but that's what I was talking about - trading countries that have affluent, mobile populations are always the early importers of novel viruses, which is why pandemic preparedness with broad, apolitical social compliance and buy-in is so crucial. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

15 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The Frito brand bean dip is pretty fucking good. 

Then a care package and or a  gofundme site seems in order....

[yoladu 4066]

2 hours ago, Newdoc said:

That was a basically worthless article with quotes from people shopping. Pulitzer Prize worthy.

maybe not Pulitzer Prize worthy, but possibly Noble Prize worthy.

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

(3)? Why is that? I'm pretty confident that China, India, Russia, and all of Africa and South and Central America are majorly under reporting cases. I'm not saying it is necessarily intentional (except for China, that is intentional) as opposed to limited ability to gather real time disease information. 

China maybe, but the others have more reasons to over report than under report. Again, Occam's razor. Things make sense as they are. 

[Anastasis 23390]

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

China maybe, but the others have more reasons to over report than under report. Again, Occam's razor. Things make sense as they are. 

I think that Occam's razor would favor the simple answer that most of those countries, with the notable exception of Russia, have far lower testing rates. 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Anastasis

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

As per Gov Abbott, we are going to 50% capacity at restaurants and bars are open to 25% capacity starting Friday.
Summer school is open 6/1 if districts choose and it sounds like all summer camps are OK to proceed starting then too.

Texas leading the good fight for the rest of us

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

20 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

 

Screw that far too late schtick. Dr. Faucci was unsure of how people should be acting in early March with regard to precautions.  If we stated far too late why isn't Italy pretty much a ghost country ?  They had an explosion right after Christmas, and their health care system is probably not more efficient as ours.  For this to have been headed off (maybe), January 1 would have been the date required for the measures we've since taken.

 

 

Great questions:
1) So you're saying Fauci was wrong? He's one of the main responders. That supports my point that our response was too late and incoherent. 

2) Italy isn't a Ghost country because much like the United States they have one region (Lombard) that was hard hit early and others reacted.

3) Sadly, the Italian healthcare system is more efficient than ours. 

4) Had we sufficient testing ready to go with contact tracing and other basics of public health by late February, things would look very different. 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Bozo_Casanova

[BradInATX 9208]

4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I think that Occam's razor would favor the simple answer that most of those countries, with the notable exception of Russia, have far lower testing rates. 

That doesn't explain the fact that we account for 300% more of the world's deaths than our population would indicate.

Edited May 18, 2020 by BradInATX

[Bozo_Casanova 26271]

4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I think that Occam's razor would favor the simple answer that most of those countries, with the notable exception of Russia, have far lower testing rates. 

Sure, but do they have a need for the testing? About 10% of my company are in India. They've been in a very hard, no-bullshit lockdown for the last 6 weeks. Assuming the disease was not endemic to big cities in India when the lockdown began, it's not clear that there's unmet demand for testing the way there was in Texas as recently as a couple weeks ago. 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

That doesn't explain the fact that we account for 300% more of the world's deaths than our population would indicate.

Unless other countries are not even testing the dead.

[BradInATX 9208]

4 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

Unless other countries are not even testing the dead.

That's definitely possible. We know for a fact that it there are places where the dead have not been tested here in the States, so I'd imagine it's a problem in other countries too.

Edited May 18, 2020 by BradInATX

[Bevo 13516]

16 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Sure, but do they have a need for the testing? About 10% of my company are in India. They've been in a very hard, no-bullshit lockdown for the last 6 weeks. Assuming the disease was not endemic to big cities in India when the lockdown began, it's not clear that there's unmet demand for testing the way there was in Texas as recently as a couple weeks ago. 

Any pics of people in India waiting on a train/bus? Lots of chances for disease spread.

 

 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Bevo

[GreenspointTexas 9559]

Taking victory laps already, i see

[Anastasis 23390]

20 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

That doesn't explain the fact that we account for 300% more of the world's deaths than our population would indicate.

There are substantive differences in reporting of deaths and cause of death attribution as well.  Russia for example: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/coronavirus-russia-defends-its-exceptionally-precise-covid-19-death-data.  

[BradInATX 9208]

10 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

There are substantive differences in reporting of deaths and cause of death attribution as well.  Russia for example: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/14/coronavirus-russia-defends-its-exceptionally-precise-covid-19-death-data.  

 

Russia reporting accurately would move that 300% number to about 290%.

There's not a single answer for the why, obviously. It's probably a combination of us being fat, other countries (looking at you, China) underreporting, large swaths of our population feeling like they can't be bothered to wear masks or watch church from their couch for a few months, and some things that don't belong on this board (from both sides in some cases, for example Democratic New Orleans did a terrible job early on). 

But the underreporting is probably one of the least important of the factors above. 

My commentary was mostly just laughing at Onboard's ridiculous attempt to avoid looking at the most obvious answer whilst creating a laundry list of things that it "has to be" that have already been proven to be definitively irrelevant. "Well, if you arbitrarily rule out the most obvious answer, then you can certainly narrow it down to these five things that make no sense!". I'm not really going to worry too much about the numbers until a year or so after this thing is in the rearview. It's going to take that long to really understand how everything went down. But I do subscribe to the directional theory that we are probably not above average in terms of containment.

Edited May 18, 2020 by BradInATX

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

My commentary was mostly just laughing at Onboard's ridiculous attempt to avoid looking at the most obvious answer whilst creating a laundry list of things that it "has to be" that have already been proven to be definitively irrelevant. "Well, if you arbitrarily rule out the most obvious answer, then you can certainly narrow it down to these five things that make no sense!"

how dare you mock Onboard's search for truth, sir.

[Anastasis 23390]

4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

Russia reporting accurately would move that 300% number to about 290%.

There's not a single answer for the why, obviously. It's probably a combination of us being fat, other countries (looking at you, China) underreporting, large swaths of our population feeling like they can't be bothered to wear masks or watch church from their couch for a few months, and some things that don't belong on this board (from both sides in some cases, for example Democratic New Orleans did a terrible job early on). 

But the underreporting is probably one of the least important of the factors above. 

My commentary was mostly just laughing at Onboard's ridiculous attempt to avoid looking at the most obvious answer whilst creating a laundry list of things that it "has to be" that have already been proven to be definitively irrelevant. "Well, if you arbitrarily rule out the most obvious answer, then you can certainly narrow it down to these five things that make no sense!". I'm not really going to worry too much about the numbers until a year or so after this thing is in the rearview. It's going to take that long to really understand how everything went down.

I agree that there are multiple factors in play impacting international mortality data. That the two largest countries in the world appear to be, alternatively, systematically under reporting and under testing makes framing the statistics as a function of the worlds total deaths fairly meaningless. The populations of those two countries combined are far greater than the rest of the top 10 combined. I mean, I understand the rhetorical value, but we should be comparing per capita case and mortality data to our international peers, other western countries. 

 

 

[Samson's Wig 3175]

1 hour ago, C-Man said:

As per Gov Abbott, we are going to 50% capacity at restaurants and bars are open to 25% capacity starting Friday.

Summer school is open 6/1 if districts choose and it sounds like all summer camps are OK to proceed starting then too.

All but one summer camp my kids were enrolled in has been cancelled (and that one is now online remote camp - should be awesome [eye-roll]), from the first week of summer to the last.  Refunds have been processed.  It's a done deal.  It's going to be interesting to see how many try to sell parents on signing up and forking money over again and how many camps (and parents) just say fuck it.

[washparkhorn 9934]

Safe kid care will be necessary for a return to normal. 

 

[Bruno Sardine 147]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

You're right. So you'd agree that a country with 4% of the world's population and 25% of the world's deaths is massively over-represented?

You seem focused on the ratio between a country’s share of coronavirus deaths and its percentage of world population, using it to make the argument that the US “is massively over-represented.” Based on the numbers you provide, the US ratio is .25/.04=6.25

The best comparisons to the United States are other, Western countries. Let’s apply your approach to European nations:
Belgium - .15% of world’s population and 2.8% of total cases for a ratio of 19
France - .8% of world’s population and 9% of total cases for a ratio of 11
Germany - 1.1% of world's population and 2.5% of total cases for a ratio of 2
Italy - .8% of world’s population and 10% of total cases for a ratio of 13
Netherlands - .22% of world’s population and 1.9% of total cases for a ratio of 9
Spain - .6% of world’s population and 8.4% of total cases for a ratio of 14
Switzerland - .11% of world’s population and .6% of total cases for a ratio of 5
UK - .9% of world’s population and 11% of total cases for a ratio for a ratio of 12

So compared to these Western countries (with the notable exception of Germany and to a lesser extent Switzerland) the United States is not massively over-represented. 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

On 5/18/2020 at 4:22 PM, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

how dare you mock Onboard's search for truth, sir.

Jesus you two are a couple of first rate dumb asses (meaning you're acting like a couple of dumb asses), and exactly why the CR is such a beating to deal with. 

Oh noes somebody questions my preconcieved notions of what's going on.....fuuuuuck theeeeeeem.....

My only reason for questioning the mortality rate is because it seems too high, and way above what some other western countries have seen..  

{GAAAASP}. I must have some hidden agenda..

Edited May 19, 2020 by Onboard 2.0