Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Bozo_Casanova 26848]

40 minutes ago, stork642 said:

Take out the abomination that is NY and how are our numbers.  NY is a complete outlier/shit show and not at all indicative of the rest is the US.  That happens when they had great ideas like the one to place Covid19 patients in nursing homes.   

This is very similar to the old Aggy position that if you took Vince Young away we wouldn't have won as much. Would you also think to do the same exercise, except by removing Lombard from Italy, or removing Wuhan from China? 

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Same question I keep asking people - based on what?

Based upon the fact that they are something like 4 - 8 times lower than their neighbors and peer groups. Maybe they truly are that good. I'm skeptical. If it was 2 times better outcomes I'd say- yeah- how about that German efficiency. If it's 8 times better outcomes than most I'm curious as to what's going on.  Based upon nothing more than that. 

[Brisketexan 106889]

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Same question I keep asking people - based on what?

Based on the fact that Wulaw knows a little German....

[JBJ 3825]

13 minutes ago, Captainant said:

The idea is that we would use contact tracing and widespread testing to have visibility into the growth, movement, and spread of the virus so we can react in a targeted and less broad way. 

You know, like how we beat smallpox. 

But for some reason, we have not prioritized that on a national level, so we have to address it on a state by state basis with either dangerous uncertainty or significantly restricted social contact on a national/inter-state basis. At least, that's only if we want to take the danger of the pandemic seriously and as a real threat, and not put potentially millions of lives in peril. 

You are kind of mischaracterizing smallpox.  Modernized nations beat smallpox by mass vaccination.

Only the last vestiges of smallpox (like SE Asia and Oceania) were a product of contact trace.  And even that form of contact tracing was "here's a case, lets innoculate the surrounding villages" not some sort of person-by-person program.

Edited May 18, 2020 by JBJ

[Captainant 28534]

12 minutes ago, Foosters said:

This is weird. Your post implies some sort of mitigating steps? I was under the impression our choices were: 1) do nothing - save the economy! or 2)everyone lives in a basement until 2022.

If you are exposed to someone with COVID-19, there's not much you can do to mitigate or improve your odds of getting infected. So instead, we (meaning our society) have to find ways to mitigate the risk of exposure. You describe the two ends of the spectrum of ways to mitigate the risk of exposure and contact with the virus.

In the middle of those two extremes lies already existing playbooks and real world tested strategies. Bioweapon or naturally occurring, the majority of them involve common steps in use together: widespread testing and monitoring, isolation and treatment of known cases, and contact tracing of known cases. It's been the common thread in how health agencies work to control the spread of STD's/HIV, SARS, and Smallpox to name a few.

To date, we have not had a comprehensive or sufficient effort across the country on contact tracing of known cases or of improving the availability and bandwidth of testing. So in the absence of two of the three critical components of controlling a pandemic, we severely limit our choices.

  

1 minute ago, JBJ said:

You are kind of mischaracterizing smallpox.  Modernized nations beat smallpox by mass vaccination.

Only the last vestiges of smallpox (like SE Asia and Oceania) were a product of contact trace.  And even that form of contact tracing was "here's a case, lets innoculate the surrounding villages" not some sort of person-by-person program.

Fair point, but unlike smallpox we don't have a vaccine. And prior to a smallpox vaccine, that's how they had to handle it then. It's just that smallpox is much more obvious when you have it and are infectious, so it's significantly easier to test/monitor for it and don't need to shut down society to sufficiently mitigate the risk as a consequence of the ease of testing for it

Edited May 18, 2020 by Captainant

[DaysOff 8207]

Ah I see some posters have gone back to the (already failed) deflections and made up talking points such as: BUT NEW YORK,  fake deaths for profit, and the like. 
Fascinating. 

You've mostly become the new Greenspoint. Mostly.

[atomheartbevo 90642]

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Our testing and reporting is far superior than the rest of these countries.  It's a detection bias until proven otherwise. 

 

 

1	China(incl. Hong Kong, Macao)	1,426,279,708	151
2	India	1,338,558,742	450
3	United States(incl. overseas territories)	327,527,107	36
4	Indonesia	263,564,697	146
5	Brazil	210,193,253	25
6	Pakistan	194,749,053	253
7	Nigeria	185,313,910	204
8	Bangladesh	165,552,994	1272
9	Russia	144,154,086	9
10	Mexico	129,132,150	66

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Says who? What is this statement based on? 

Article I read earlier today on Colorado I believe is where I saw this.  Again, you are picking at something that I'm not saying. I believe we won't know whether or not deaths are being over, under or accurately reported until years go by and many empirical studies are done. I'm positive there are deaths being counted, right now, that aren't covid, just as I'm positive there are deaths not being counted right now that are covid. 

And, if you wanted to do it another way (as I suspect Germany might since they are so far ahead of their peer groups) that's fine too.  We are in the fog of war right now. Anyone who thinks they know exactly what's going on right now has an agenda, is naive, or is a fool.  

[Brisketexan 106889]

5 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I'm sure, if we got a lot of smart people on it, they could come up with a better solution.

I mean, America will not stand to shut down their country and harm our young, indefinitely, to protect olds in the nursing home.  Or, put another way, we care so little about the olds in the typical nursing home that they are breeding grounds for neglect, abuse and misery. What makes you think- if we care so little about mom's well being that we will shunt her into a home and ignore her for more or less life, that we will burn the country to the ground long term to care for them?  Hell, look at the orders about nursing homes that had to take in covid positive patients and the decimation that wrought in some of those cities and states. It's shameful. 

Your two statements are both true....and inherently contradictory.  We will not come up with a better solution.  Because we've chosen not to.  Because policy-wise, we seem to have chosen that insane and unnecessarily binary world.  Seriously, and NOT to go CR -- to point out how this is across all lines -- we seem capable only of disregarding human life, either on purpose or out of stupidity.  FUCK MASKS AND ANY ISOLATION! is the rallying cry for many...which unnecessarily creates a high risk of spread.  And from leaders who otherwise, by any reasonable account, TRIED to act to protect folks....and ended up ordering COVID-positive patients back to nursing homes.  They utterly failed to think anything beyond one-step ahead from where they were at the moment.

There are all kinds of smart things we could do.  Enough of the people and leadership will reject all of them, so none of them will be done.  We're going to do this one without a parachute.  Hope it goes well....

[Bozo_Casanova 26848]

7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Based upon the fact that they are something like 4 - 8 times lower than their neighbors and peer groups. Maybe they truly are that good. I'm skeptical. If it was 2 times better outcomes I'd say- yeah- how about that German efficiency. If it's 8 times better outcomes than most I'm curious as to what's going on.  Based upon nothing more than that. 

Based on what I know about their healthcare system and my direct experience with their mode of corporate management, my guess is that they are actually that good. 

[Brisketexan 106889]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

Based on what I know about their healthcare system and my direct experience with their mode of corporate management, my guess is that they are actually that good. 

If there's anyone who's good at efficiently rounding up people for treatment, it's.....oh come on, you all were thinking it.

[HoffaJimmy 316]

Amazing how treatment has changed in the last month. So much for all those vents........

[Bozo_Casanova 26848]

8 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Based on the fact that Wulaw knows a little German....

This is NOT Mel Tormé.

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Based on what I know about their healthcare system and my direct experience with their mode of corporate management, my guess is that they are actually that good. 

Maybe. I said I was suspicious they are doing Something different- I don’t think they are lying per se, just counting a little differently. Like I said- just a suspicion. 

[Js1 87179]

19 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

50 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Ah I see some posters have gone back to the (already failed) deflections and made up talking points such as: BUT NEW YORK,  fake deaths for profit, and the like. 
Fascinating. 

You've mostly become the new Greenspoint. Mostly.

Just calling out the obvious trolls peddling false talking points. But ok bro. You do you. 

Also Brisket is a more wordy Greenspoint. I could never 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Js1

[washparkhorn 9973]

AI is learning our weaknesses:

I just want to state again how much I appreciate our AI overlords - past, present and future. 

[gmr548 16697]

All but one summer camp my kids were enrolled in has been cancelled (and that one is now online remote camp - should be awesome [eye-roll]), from the first week of summer to the last.  Refunds have been processed.  It's a done deal.  It's going to be interesting to see how many try to sell parents on signing up and forking money over again and how many camps (and parents) just say fuck it.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say, at this point, there are plenty of parents who would still pay you if you promised to never give the kid back.

[dcar00 14956]

23 minutes ago, JBJ said:

You are kind of mischaracterizing smallpox.  Modernized nations beat smallpox by mass vaccination.

Only the last vestiges of smallpox (like SE Asia and Oceania) were a product of contact trace.  And even that form of contact tracing was "here's a case, lets innoculate the surrounding villages" not some sort of person-by-person program.

ya think?  the smallpox thing is stupid.  you can see obvious signs of it and it doesn't "look" like another disease.

[gmr548 16697]

If you've been there you know why Germany has contained it better than most countries. Those people are hardcore about following rules. If you do something even in the gray area of the rules, you don't get the typical passive aggressive Euro look of disapproval, you get yelled at. My wife and I watched a guy see a Red Bull can on the sidewalk, pick it up, throw it away, and cuss to himself for a solid two minutes as he walked down the street. I really wanted to run around the block to get ahead of him and randomly drop bits of trash every 50 yards or so for him like angry Pac Man but my wife wasn't letting it happen.
 
Crazy ass Germans.

Right? They're hyper- competent. Honestly it'd be strange if they weren't outperforming Italy, Spain, France, the UK, and US.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

58 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I was responding to your comment about New Orleans, and I didn’t mention politics or leaders involved. 

But you were thinking it dammit.  You had to be you mentioned NY... Whoopsie daisy....

[Bozo_Casanova 26848]

28 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Maybe. I said I was suspicious they are doing Something different- I don’t think they are lying per se, just counting a little differently. Like I said- just a suspicion. 

Or, and just bear with me here, they have a culture of extreme bureaucratic discipline and collaborative management to go with one of the best healthcare systems in the world, and that could somehow lend itself to coordinated action of high quality. 

Edited May 18, 2020 by Bozo_Casanova

[Enchubben 5600]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

No, you only spoke of them as direct contacts.  That's the point in viral spread -- it's not about one direct contact.  It's about the hundreds of indirect contacts.  Timmy gives it to Billy, Shiela, Tommy, Bob, Michelle, , Steve, and Sally at school.  Each of them infects at least one of their parents, so we now have 8 infected adults.  And let's say half of them transmit it to an older person they work with, assist, visit, etc. -- we now have 4 infected vulnerable people.  And it all started with Timmy, who hasn't been around an older person in months.  That's kinda the whole point -- it can be a launching point for the, literally, viral spread.

So how to we mitigate that risk? 

Has it been proven that kids can share it with adults? As of a couple weeks ago there were multiple reports indicating that weren't ANY cases of children passing it to adults.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11860]

On this whole nursing home business, it’s easy to Monday morning quarterback and all, but early on in this before we had all the facts, what were they going to do with those people? 

There were two aspects to this - one, nursing homes were required to readmit residents who had been hospitalized, and were released. Two, they could not refuse to admit a person based solely on the fact that they had been hospitalized with covid.  They couldn’t stay in the hospital, there weren’t enough beds.  Sure in hindsight you can say ‘they’ should have set up special hospitals or places to send discharged hospital patients from nursing homes.  Who were you going to find to work in and administer those?  Who pays for it?  How were they supposed to know this and be prepared in February and early March when it was no big deal?

it was a tragedy, but under the circumstances seems unavoidable.  Hopefully our care system learns from it and improves.  

 

 

[Bruno Sardine 147]

1 hour ago, BradInATX said:

It's interesting that you picked all European countries that have colder weather and 10x the population density we do and huge reliance on public transportation, instead of more appropriate comparisons like Canada, Australia, or Mexico.

Well, my post was in response to your post. If those are the countries to whom we should compare ourselves, you could have done that yourself.

Okay, let's compare ourselves to Mexico.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/08/world/americas/mexico-coronavirus-count.html

On second thought, let's not compare ourselves to Mexico because it's a terrible comparison and their numbers are utterly unreliable.

How about Canada? You said yourself in another post we're "in the same ballpark as Canada."

I really don't know much about Australia. If your point is that we haven't handled things as well as Australia, then I'm happy to concede the argument. 

[Foosters 18279]

Anyone else surprised by the push-back to the masks?

I understand the thinking behind folks being upset about shuttered businesses, schools, etc.  But masks? You'd think people are being asked to cut off an arm. Such a minor inconvenience.

[Js1 87179]

5 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Anyone else surprised by the push-back to the masks?

I understand the thinking behind folks being upset about shuttered businesses, schools, etc.  But masks? You'd think people are being asked to cut off an arm. Such a minor inconvenience.

Nope, I’m sadly not surprised 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

2 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

On this whole nursing home business, it’s easy to Monday morning quarterback and all, but early on in this before we had all the facts, what were they going to do with those people? 

There were two aspects to this - one, nursing homes were required to readmit residents who had been hospitalized, and were released. Two, they could not refuse to admit a person based solely on the fact that they had been hospitalized with covid.  They couldn’t stay in the hospital, there weren’t enough beds.  Sure in hindsight you can say ‘they’ should have set up special hospitals or places to send discharged hospital patients from nursing homes.  Who were you going to find to work in and administer those?  Who pays for it?  How were they supposed to know this and be prepared in February and early March when it was no big deal?

it was a tragedy, but under the circumstances seems unavoidable.  Hopefully our care system learns from it and improves.  

 

 

Pretty forgiving. Gonna show the same "aw shucks we couldn't have known"  about when we should how shut down the whole country ?  

Our health care system should already know that old people, that more than likely all have pre existing health issues shouldn't be mixed with folks with a highly infectious respiratory or blood virus ?  You think health care workers don't already know that's a bad idea ?

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

17 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Or, and just bear with me here, they have a culture of extreme bureaucratic discipline and collaborative management to go with one of the best healthcare systems in the world, and that could somehow lend itself to coordinated action of high quality. 

I've met the Germans, that is them...

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13434]

15 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

Has it been proven that kids can share it with adults? As of a couple weeks ago there were multiple reports indicating that weren't ANY cases of children passing it to adults.

I have no idea what reports you’re talking about but you should avoid the location in which you read them. They sound dumb, really dumb.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11860]

2 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Pretty forgiving. Gonna show the same "aw shucks we couldn't have known"  about when we should how shut down the whole country ?  

Our health care system should already know that old people, that more than likely all have pre existing health issues shouldn't be mixed with folks with a highly infectious respiratory or blood virus ?  You think health care workers don't already know that's a bad idea ?

No, I’m saying that there weren’t any easy options.  Key word easy.  What would you have done?  Btw like your snide projection that I’m defending a side. Always sides.  I was making an observation.  

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

1 minute ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

No, I’m saying that there weren’t any easy options.  Key word easy.  What would you have done?  Btw like your snide projection that I’m defending a side. Always sides.  I was making an observation.  

Well forgive me on the side defending thing. That is what Surly does.  I don't know off hand,  but I don't think I'd be sending them into large groups of folks who have depressed immune systems to begin with.  

[Enchubben 5600]

3 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

I have no idea what reports you’re talking about but you should avoid the location in which you read them. They sound dumb, really dumb.

It came from a WHO report where they could not find a single incident.  Agreed that China is asshole (and therefore WHO is asshole), so likely cant give that too much weight, but interesting nonetheless.  

[VRHorn 732]

3 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

It came from a WHO report where they could not find a single incident.  Agreed that China is asshole (and therefore WHO is asshole), so likely cant give that too much weight, but interesting nonetheless.  

I read this factoid, but I completely reject the source of the factoid as an asshole.

Regardless, here’s  my recollection of the factoid I read.

is that right?

 

Edited May 18, 2020 by VRHorn
Grammar

[Bozo_Casanova 26848]

12 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Anyone else surprised by the push-back to the masks?

I understand the thinking behind folks being upset about shuttered businesses, schools, etc.  But masks? You'd think people are being asked to cut off an arm. Such a minor inconvenience.

You know who chews off their own arms?

 

 

 

WOLVERINES!

[Poe It Up 126]

I wear a mask, but I don’t feel it’s a minor inconvenience. It really fucking blows. It’s like standing next to a close talker that you can’t escape. 

[washparkhorn 9973]

4 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

It came from a WHO report where they could not find a single incident.  Agreed that China is asshole (and therefore WHO is asshole), so likely cant give that too much weight, but interesting nonetheless.  

If I may, I think you may be referring to this line of inquiry. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/05/health/coronavirus-children-transmission-school.html

Studies so far indicate children are carriers, even if asymptomatic. 

[Samson's Wig 3230]

47 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

2 hours ago, Samson said:

All but one summer camp my kids were enrolled in has been cancelled (and that one is now online remote camp - should be awesome [eye-roll]), from the first week of summer to the last.  Refunds have been processed.  It's a done deal.  It's going to be interesting to see how many try to sell parents on signing up and forking money over again and how many camps (and parents) just say fuck it.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and say, at this point, there are plenty of parents who would still pay you if you promised to never give the kid back.

No doubt, I'm one of them.  But the summer camp planning and signup process is such a fucking nightmare every year, and I could see some folks just saying, "to hell with it I'm not going through that twice in the same calendar year".

[Judge Roybeanbag 11860]

6 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Well forgive me on the side defending thing. That is what Surly does.  I don't know off hand,  but I don't think I'd be sending them into large groups of folks who have depressed immune systems to begin with.  

Yeah, like I said there aren’t a lot of good options.  I’m sure healthcare workers would line up in droves to go work in a field hospital full of geriatric covid patients, most of whom have multiple other issues and a 3 page list of daily medications.  Shit here in Texas nursing home and assisted living deaths from this thing make up nearly half of our death total.  And the state still won’t release the names of facilities who have infected residents.  Sucks everywhere.  

[Foosters 18279]

3 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

I wear a mask, but I don’t feel it’s a minor inconvenience. It really fucking blows. It’s like standing next to a close talker that you can’t escape. 

Fair. It does kinda suck. Relative to the harm we're seeking to avoid and the improvement over stay-at-home while everything is closed down, I thought there'd be less push-back.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13434]

A sneak peek into next summer.
 

[Mole 4339]

16 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

I wear a mask, but I don’t feel it’s a minor inconvenience. It really fucking blows. It’s like standing next to a close talker that you can’t escape. 

With terrible breath. 

[Wulaw Horn 19595]

51 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Or, and just bear with me here, they have a culture of extreme bureaucratic discipline and collaborative management to go with one of the best healthcare systems in the world, and that could somehow lend itself to coordinated action of high quality. 

Sure. 

[Zonahorn 8079]

4 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Our testing and reporting is far superior than the rest of these countries.  It's a detection bias until proven otherwise. 

 

 

1	China(incl. Hong Kong, Macao)	1,426,279,708	151
2	India	1,338,558,742	450
3	United States(incl. overseas territories)	327,527,107	36
4	Indonesia	263,564,697	146
5	Brazil	210,193,253	25
6	Pakistan	194,749,053	253
7	Nigeria	185,313,910	204
8	Bangladesh	165,552,994	1272
9	Russia	144,154,086	9
10	Mexico	129,132,150	66

[Enchubben 5600]

49 minutes ago, VRHorn said:

I read this factoid, but I completely reject the source of the factoid as an asshole.

Regardless, here’s  my recollection of the factoid I read.

is that right?

 

Yea you nailed it. Cracked the case. 

It is possible to observe and point out a phenomenon within a study, but not ultimately agree with the absolute nature of their conclusion.  Ie I find it interesting that there were zero observations within their study, but obviously saying anything doesn’t happen at all at this point is premature. 

[Js1 87179]

29 minutes ago, Mole said:

With terrible breath. 

You still have to brush your teeth even if you don’t go to work 

[Trey3216 15452]

48 minutes ago, Poe It Up said:

I wear a mask, but I don’t feel it’s a minor inconvenience. It really fucking blows. It’s like standing next to a close talker that you can’t escape. 

You should brush your teeth better, and stop dipping Cope

[MNLonghornFUKM 8983]

No, I’m saying that there weren’t any easy options.  Key word easy.  What would you have done?  Btw like your snide projection that I’m defending a side. Always sides.  I was making an observation.  

What’s wrong with using the ship or convention center for those nursing home patients that don’t need ICU care going there until they’re no longer infectious?

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

What’s wrong with using the ship or convention center for those nursing home patients that don’t need ICU care going there until they’re no longer infectious?

Exactly.  Getting enough staff could have been the issue potentially.

[Poe It Up 126]

16 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

You should brush your teeth better, and stop dipping Cope

I brush my tooth weekly, thank you. 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11860]

19 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

What’s wrong with using the ship or convention center for those nursing home patients that don’t need ICU care going there until they’re no longer infectious?

Well for one, the ship didn’t get there until March 30, when half the deaths had already occurred.  Then that kinda ignores the fact that the most of patients we are speaking got infected and sick in the nursing home, before they went to the hospital and were returned to the nursing home.  So the virus was already there.  Not that it makes the situation better but go ahead and blame state officials if it makes you feel better.  You’re allowed to do that on this thread.  Just be sure to blame all of them.