Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[DaysOff 7821]

I mean, who in the hell swims in those public urinals anyway?

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

8 hours ago, Eskimohorn said:

In a world where we didnt change behavior, C19 shuts things down on its own. There is no choice, but hard, educated decisions. The US’ 50-state, 10000-county, 40,000-city, 330million-person strategy will neither solve this public health crisis nor re-open the economy.

In the depression, if you asked people hey 1% will die and our economy will suck, thats a more apt hypothetical. You have to solve the public health crisis before anything, even if its not perfect and comes with risks and inconvenience and failures.

At this point, we don’t even have a consensus on the extent of the problem. In Texas, just now having adequate testing. This is Phase I shit.

I'd say this - if you asked them if 1% of the population passing meant you move towards a recovery faster, they'd say yes.  And the comparison was made in jest as I'm frustrated by local politics. Becker's hospital ranks IL as the most restrictive state.  I know exactly wtf is politics and what's medically appropriate - at least when it's this black and white.  There's many a hospital system and physician in IL who have no idea where Gov FatFuck is getting his data but here we are.  

But if you're looking to bankrupt the state while getting a bailout AND save every life possible it's a great strategy.  

Edited May 21, 2020 by ChiTownDoc
buy/by meh

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

4 minutes ago, DaysOff said:

I mean, who in the hell swims in those public urinals anyway?

Yeah. Covid is the least of your worries. 

[bullzak 411]

6 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

But if you're looking to bankrupt the state while getting a bailout AND save every life possible it's a great strategy.  

The cynic in me says that is Governor Fatass' strategy. Why does he mention Trump in every press conference like he caused the Rona directly? 

People will be at the lake front by the tens of thousands shortly either way. This is getting stupid. 

And good luck getting them to cite the data they are looking at. Whats the big mystery?

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

28 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Wasn't it the Karens who asked for it to be closed? Is this Karen on Karen violence? 

I feel like Karen is losing her identity during this crisis.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

Just now, Casual Encounter said:

I feel like Karen is losing her identity during this crisis.

This is Karen's Shining Moment!

[bullzak 411]

1 hour ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

I would think the Karens would be happy.  All the kids be jumping in, splashing hair on their 90's bouffants.  

Part of being a Karen is being pissed off.

All the time.

About everything, but especially trivial shit. 

[Mitch Cumsteen 18517]

My kids are supposed to be at camp starting June 21. I paid the bill, but we can cancel at anytime and get a refund.

I think it's pretty obvious that in a month, the numbers are going to keep going up as they reopen more things. My wife is convinced that there is no way that the kids are going. I'm just playing it by ear until we get more information but it's a daily discussion in our house.

I'm really on the fence with it. On one hand, I figure they are at really low risk and I really want them to get the fuck out of the house and have the experience, especially after what they've gone through so far. On the other, they are going to be mixing with kids from all over, mostly from large metro Texas cities, but who knows what they are going to bring home.

[Eskimohorn 5610]

I'd say this - if you asked them if 1% of the population passing meant you move towards a recovery faster, they'd say yes.  And the comparison was made in jest as I'm frustrated buy local politics. Becker's hospital ranks IL as the most restrictive state.  I know exactly wtf is politics and what's medically appropriate - at least when it's this black and white.  There's many a hospital system and physician in IL who have no idea where Gov FatFuck is getting his data but here we are.  
But if you're looking to bankrupt the state while getting a bailout AND save every life possible it's a great strategy.  

Yeah, big city mayors should have a playbook consistent that other big cities use. And extreme measures can last a month or two. Then what? Its a Catch-22, but we already shot our wad. Now, you have to increase risk as our ability to test and track the spread becomes more sophisticated.

Also, mask-wearing needs to be normal and ubiquitous in public spaces where dinstancing is not always possible. You will not mitigate risk otherwise. Is simple math (if you had the numbers), as there are more human interactions, the inevitably of future shutdowns become inevitable. The key to salvaging the economy is to maximize commercial interactions across as many sectors as possible while minimizing personal interactions.

[XYZ 2154]

34 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

while i completely understand the desire to let kids go to camp, i could not imagine sending my boys to camp any more than i could imagine getting on an airplane to attend a trade show. and i'm going some kind of bananas under shelter in place.

i ain't telling yall what to do, but despite the legality of these gatherings, they still seem risky to me.

but i've gone from being fairly blase about this a couple of months ago to being very cautious. 

until we have appreciable data on positive tests and antibody tests, it's hard to consider large gatherings.

ymmv

I’m trying to be cautious, too. What bothers me is that is see myself drifting more and more toward the paranoid side of things. Before it was “I’m going to HEB”. Now any outing is like a mission, mask, hand sanitizer, look everywhere, distrust everything. It’s wearing on me.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

2 minutes ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

My kids are supposed to be at camp starting June 21. I paid the bill, but we can cancel at anytime and get a refund.

I know where that money is going...

[Wally Fairway 5517]

Open those auto plants, let us get back to work!!!!

2 Ford plants closing due to workers testing postive

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2020/05/20/covid-19-cases-fords-dearborn-chicago-plants-cause-temporary-shutdowns/5229965002/

Quote

Ford Motor Co. confirmed Wednesday that it was forced to temporarily shut down production at two of its plants — one in Dearborn and the other in Chicago — because of workers testing positive for COVID-19.

 

"When a Dearborn Truck Plant employee who returned to work this week tested positive for COVID-19, we immediately began to notify people known to have been in close contact with the infected individual and asked them to self-quarantine for 14 days," Felker said. "We are deep cleaning and disinfecting the work area, equipment, team area and the path that the team member took."

In Chicago, two employees who returned to work this week tested positive for the virus. The same protocols were applied in those cases, and Chicago Assembly now is running again. Due to the known incubation time of the virus, Ford said "we know (these employees) did not contract COVID-19 while at work."

Gonna be a lot of starting and stopping production businesses that have large a workforce and are doing testing

[hayden_horn 11360]

7 minutes ago, XYZ said:

I’m trying to be cautious, too. What bothers me is that is see myself drifting more and more toward the paranoid side of things. Before it was “I’m going to HEB”. Now any outing is like a mission, mask, hand sanitizer, look everywhere, distrust everything. It’s wearing on me.

part of it is the isolation we are all feeling. i mean, the distrust, outright loathing, and visceral reaction i have when i see someone wearing a mask only covering their mouth is starting to disturb me. i think i would be going crazier if i lived outside of the austin area.

[Guest Lobo]

2 minutes ago, hayden_horn said:

part of it is the isolation we are all feeling. i mean, the distrust, outright loathing, and visceral reaction i have when i see someone wearing a mask only covering their mouth is starting to disturb me. i think i would be going crazier if i lived outside of the austin area.

Yep, feel exactly the same way.  I went from not even noticing other people when I went out unless they needed some help to now looking at assholes with no mask on like, "Yeah, I get it...you're a Liberty-Curious Badass like I once was...but we got vulnerable people at home so get your shit together man."  But Austin blows me away, I'm getting back out there a little more in the last couple weeks and it's 80% masked and considerate.  When I'm in other parts of Texas or watching cities on TV, it's 80% unmasked and douche-ridden.  

[InkaUtexas 25426]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

And dude, in her field (foreign languages and such) a resume line of "cowgirl/ranch hand in Texas" is an absolute interview-clincher.  So long-term, it might  even be ideal.

Be great if she wants to work in cow loving Mali or Chad. Have her send me her resume. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

15 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Gonna be a lot of starting and stopping production businesses that have large a workforce and are doing testing

I wonder how much of this "we are shutting down to clean" is just damage control for their reputation. As others have pointed out, "contact spread" is unlikely. 

[Js1 85056]

17 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

Open those auto plants, let us get back to work!!!!

2 Ford plants closing due to workers testing postive

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/business/autos/ford/2020/05/20/covid-19-cases-fords-dearborn-chicago-plants-cause-temporary-shutdowns/5229965002/

Gonna be a lot of starting and stopping production businesses that have large a workforce and are doing testing

Probably why those meat plants in Texas were like “lol testing? No thanks” until the state stepped in 

[Brisketexan 104465]

1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Be great if she wants to work in cow loving Mali or Chad. Have her send me her resume. 

We're hoping that the Canadian-German-Norwegian employers she hopes to one day interview with will think "wow, Texas cowgirl, let's talk to her".....but she IS getting her French nailed down, so she knows that she may end up doing some sort of work in west Africa at some point (if she ends up with a multi-national organization).  So there's that.  I might like her to steer clear of Mali and Chad for the time being, though....

[Moby Ric 2058]

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Wasn't it the Karens who asked for it to be closed? Is this Karen on Karen violence? 

Yes,  and now they got what they wanted and now bitching about it.  It is a fucking clown show

[InkaUtexas 25426]

12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We're hoping that the Canadian-German-Norwegian employers she hopes to one day interview with will think "wow, Texas cowgirl, let's talk to her".....but she IS getting her French nailed down, so she knows that she may end up doing some sort of work in west Africa at some point (if she ends up with a multi-national organization).  So there's that.  I might like her to steer clear of Mali and Chad for the time being, though....

Nah, fuck that. That is where the jobs and NGO's are. Ya think she is going to get an interpreter gig for UNHCR and hang out in Romandie? 

[InkaUtexas 25426]

37 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I know where that money is going...

To South Austin's Mom? 

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4965]

23 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

We're hoping that the Canadian-German-Norwegian employers she hopes to one day interview with will think "wow, Texas cowgirl, let's talk to her".....but she IS getting her French nailed down, so she knows that she may end up doing some sort of work in west Africa at some point (if she ends up with a multi-national organization).  So there's that.  I might like her to steer clear of Mali and Chad for the time being, though....

Senegal wasn't bad when I was there, and they are down with eating cow. Wouldn't be a bad place to spend a year or two in your 20's.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

11 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

To South Austin's Mom? 

She charges you?

[dcar00 14023]

1 hour ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Spreadsheet Percentage of Deaths in Nursing Homes by state

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ETm51GayRjlnoaRVtUOWfkolEeAQZ-zPhXkCbVe4_ik/edit#gid=435667374

24 states over 50%

Worst: Minnesota 87%, Rhode Island 77%, New Hampshire 75%

Not reporting: Alaska, Mississippi, Missouri, and Wyoming

the New York comments are uh interesting.  only state to report people who lived at a nursing home(and by assumption contracted it there) but died in a hospital as "not nursing home deaths". typical.

[dcar00 14023]

1 hour ago, bullzak said:

The cynic in me says that is Governor Fatass' strategy. Why does he mention Trump in every press conference like he caused the Rona directly? 

People will be at the lake front by the tens of thousands shortly either way. This is getting stupid. 

And good luck getting them to cite the data they are looking at. Whats the big mystery?

the mystery is "deaths OMG deaths, cases, etc, Feds must do better, bail us out, send money for beer!"  not "we need to make sure the hospitals don't get overrun and we can't care for the sick".

[T&T’s Dad 32]

Seems like there is starting to be some consensus on the fact that this stuff is affecting loads more people than earlier thought.  And ALSO, if these are right, the mortality rate is in line with regular flu...
https://www.biospace.com/article/multiple-studies-suggest-covid-19-mortality-rate-may-be-lower-than-expected-/?fbclid=IwAR23Mx86v1rKxEz0bXjAj5OJG2uHl93KGxTvs5UJ13kvgZQJqLgE6dz2gvU

[TwiceHorn 31184]

Maybe already posted, but this is ominous.

https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/local/ut-southwestern-models-show-covid-19-surge-in-dallas-fort-worth-by-july/287-fcc1124f-bd60-435f-80dd-e727fbb50e9e

Quote

UT Southwestern’s report models the spread of the coronavirus across North Texas based on patient data from Collin, Dallas, Denton and Tarrant counties.

The projections suggest the four counties will see 800 new cases a day by early July, rather than the roughly 250 daily the counties are experiencing now, if current measures, such as distancing, wearing of masks and frequent hand washing, continue.

The current measures are 60 percent effective, according to the report. If measures were relaxed resulting in a 57 percent effectiveness rate, the number of new infections daily would jump to more than 1,000 by early June, the model suggests.

If prevention measures were increased to result in 65 percent effectiveness, cases would slowly decrease for the rest of the year, and if the measures rose to 69 percent effective, cases drop to near zero by August.

 

[strangulation! 1699]

44 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I might like her to steer clear of Mali and Chad for the time being, though....

i'm sure they'll have their shit together in the next millenium or two. just give them some time.

[Wulaw Horn 18963]

1 hour ago, XYZ said:

I’m trying to be cautious, too. What bothers me is that is see myself drifting more and more toward the paranoid side of things. Before it was “I’m going to HEB”. Now any outing is like a mission, mask, hand sanitizer, look everywhere, distrust everything. It’s wearing on me.

Why?  Everything we’ve seen is that this is much less of a big deal than was feared it might be. Why is your anxiety level going up? 

[dcbc 14388]

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

We're actually working an angle to get our daughter a part-time gig as  ranch hand.  We'd be willing to subsidize the pay some.  That way, it's one less job taken from someone who really needs to make some money.  And dude, in her field (foreign languages and such) a resume line of "cowgirl/ranch hand in Texas" is an absolute interview-clincher.  So long-term, it might  even be ideal.

 

And for the boy....we're just looking for a low-hours parttime gig -- like a burger joint or something (in other words, a job that really wouldn't help someone pay meaningful bills anyway).  Just because he DESPERATELY needs something to focus on and build some self-discipline.

I spent a hot ass summer pounding fence posts on a ranch when I was 13 making $3.50 per hour.  Told my dad at the end of the first day that I wanted to look for an office job the next summer.

[Eastwood 4394]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

@Pescado_Rojo has a similar story about his high school gig.  I believe it was hanging sheetrock in the SETX heat and humidity.  Inspired him to go to college to get him one of those "indoors" jobs.

I took a break from college to try my hand at the real world and found myself in a warehouse in San Antonio during the summer. Job wasn't paying enough, so 6 months later I took a night shift job working the fuel island of a long-haul truck maintenance facility where I also had truck washing duty.  Some time around midnight in late December, the temp was in the low 20s during my shift. The water from the pressure washer nozzle was freezing on contact, creating a dirty ice casing around the trucks and I still had 3 hours to go before I would see the inside of a heated building. That, combined with other horrors that are found in the sleeper cabin of a leased long haul-truck, had me change my position on whether I needed a college education.

I still have over a decade to go before my oldest will be at a working age, but the stories from that place will be sitting in my back pocket until then. Unfortunately, the thing about most boys in their late teens is that they won't believe a word you tell them. They need to feel the rap on the nose themselves before they get the idea.

[Brisketexan 104465]

7 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

The current measures are 60 percent effective, according to the report. If measures were relaxed resulting in a 57 percent effectiveness rate, the number of new infections daily would jump to more than 1,000 by early June, the model suggests.

If prevention measures were increased to result in 65 percent effectiveness, cases would slowly decrease for the rest of the year, and if the measures rose to 69 percent effective, cases drop to near zero by August.

It always comes back to....

[Brisketexan 104465]

1 minute ago, Eastwood said:

Unfortunately, the thing about most boys in their late teens is that they won't believe a word you tell them. They need to feel the rap on the nose themselves before they get the idea.

QF hard-headed truth.

[dcar00 14023]

17 minutes ago, T&T’s Dad said:

Seems like there is starting to be some consensus on the fact that this stuff is affecting loads more people than earlier thought.  And ALSO, if these are right, the mortality rate is in line with regular flu...
https://www.biospace.com/article/multiple-studies-suggest-covid-19-mortality-rate-may-be-lower-than-expected-/?fbclid=IwAR23Mx86v1rKxEz0bXjAj5OJG2uHl93KGxTvs5UJ13kvgZQJqLgE6dz2gvU

Its likely .2 or .3.  2x or 3x "normal flu".  that said "normal flu deaths" are going to get a hard look and wild prediction "normal flu IFR" will be looked at being lowered.  the last 10 years flu IFR is around .15 not .1

Edited May 20, 2020 by dcar00

[Brisketexan 104465]

15 minutes ago, T&T’s Dad said:

Seems like there is starting to be some consensus on the fact that this stuff is affecting loads more people than earlier thought.  And ALSO, if these are right, the mortality rate is in line with regular flu...
https://www.biospace.com/article/multiple-studies-suggest-covid-19-mortality-rate-may-be-lower-than-expected-/?fbclid=IwAR23Mx86v1rKxEz0bXjAj5OJG2uHl93KGxTvs5UJ13kvgZQJqLgE6dz2gvU

Yes....but.....

We know that the "Case fatality rate" number is not the infection fatality rate.  So, the early discussions of a 3% mortality rate are certainly not accurate.

But the randomized testing cited in that article is still all over the place, and of quite dubious validity.  There's surely SOMETHING to it -- that seems clear.  That is, the IFR is almost certainly below 1%.  But that still doesn't translate into "only as deadly as the flu," because it doesn't take into account the transmission rate.  In the simplest terms, if it is exactly as deadly as the flu, but is twice as virulent in its spread, that means that twice as many people will die. 

And if it's even only twice as deadly as the flu (not a terrible number), and it's twice as virulent....that's four times as many people dying.  That would seem to get folks to sit up and take notice.

The numbers in NYC indicate that 1 in every 500 residents has died.  Not 1 in 500 of cases, or infections, but of the total population.  That is, if the virus runs wild in the population as it did in NYC, we can expect to see .2% of the population die.  If that was extrapolated to the US population, that means that around 650,000 deaths.  And yes, as I noted that ALL data is iffy now, that's just one data point.  But if that gives us a REMOTELY accurate picture of "how many people would die if we let the virus run wild, and even then, reduced the spread somewhat," that's a sobering number.  650,000 dead - the only American historical event with a greater death toll would be the Civil War, and by a hair, the 1918 flu pandemic (but in a much smaller population, so a higher death rate).

In short....the data is helping us narrow down the numbers.  We have now knocked it down where "holy shit, apocalyptic death rate!" is not the number.  But reports that we've reduced it to "the same number of folks will die of this as die of the flu" seem pretty off as well.  It's somewhere in between....more and better data will help us nail it down.  And yes, we need to know.

Because can we live with, say, 250,000 dead?  Maybe we can, and that's just the cost of living on this planet right now.  Better data will help us make better decisions.+

[Dahobbs 17420]

31 minutes ago, T&T’s Dad said:

Seems like there is starting to be some consensus on the fact that this stuff is affecting loads more people than earlier thought.  And ALSO, if these are right, the mortality rate is in line with regular flu...
https://www.biospace.com/article/multiple-studies-suggest-covid-19-mortality-rate-may-be-lower-than-expected-/?fbclid=IwAR23Mx86v1rKxEz0bXjAj5OJG2uHl93KGxTvs5UJ13kvgZQJqLgE6dz2gvU

That article doesn't accurately summarize the state of the science nor the individual results it reports.

For instance, the Iceland study did not, contrary to the article, find a general prevalence of 13.3%. Rather, the 13.3% was for "targeted testing" (i.e., people with who were symptomatic, had recently traveled to high-risk countries, or had contact with infected persons). Thus, there is going to be a heavy selection bias for people who were more likely to test positive. The same paper also references a general population screening where between .6% and .8% tested positive (there were two general screenings, an open invitation portion and a random population portion).  Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population

The California antibody tests it cites were pretty roundly criticized for flawed methodologies (self selection problems), mathematical errors, and for reliance on unreliable tests.  Experts demolish studies suggesting COVID-19 is no worse than flu.

It also doesn't include New York's efforts, which indicated that the prevalence of the virus is under 13% for that heavily hit state. That also suggest an IFR floor for the state of ~1% (x10 regular flu) based on known NY deaths. (19.45 million * 12.3% = 2.39 million infected. Reported NY deaths were at 24,000 deaths on May 2nd when results announced, which, divided by 2.39 million =  1.00% CFR.)  NY results

 

Edited May 20, 2020 by Dahobbs

[SHOOTER12 8787]

I had posted on a couple of threads last week about knowing people who had contracted or died from the coronavirus. I'm glad to report that the one I was most concerned about has recovered and was released from the hospital yesterday.  I was worried because she's 89 years old and has various health concerns. She's a two time cancer survivor so I guess I shouldn't be surprised that she beat the rona.  That old gal is as tough as shoe leather.

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

15 minutes ago, dcbc said:

I spent a hot ass summer pounding fence posts on a ranch when I was 13 making $3.50 per hour.  Told my dad at the end of the first day that I wanted to look for an office job the next summer.

I spent one day telemarketing at 16 in a room full of fat chain smokers.  $9 an hour.  The next day I went to do construction cleanup in 100 degree heat for $15/hr cash.  And I never quit that as my summer job until I was in college.  That one day was miserable.  The old man asked when I was going to go pick that check up...I was like they can keep that fucking money.  I wasn't going to spend one more minute in that hellhole. 

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

7 minutes ago, SHOOTER12 said:

I had posted on a couple of threads last week about knowing people who had contracted or died from the coronavirus. I'm glad to report that the one I was most concerned about has recovered and was released from the hospital yesterday.  I was worried because she's 89 years old and has various health concerns. She's a two time cancer survivor so I guess I shouldn't be surprised that she beat the rona.  That old gal is as tough as shoe leather.

I'd say I've had dozens of patients over the age of 80 recover after needing to be in a special C19 unit.  Now I don't see patients when they get sent to the ICU but the fact none of them even needed the ICU is impressive.  I've also seen many pass but it has been surprising how being really old with comorbidities doesn't spell death - and being young/healthy doesn't necessarily mean you're ok...a few folks that needed hospitalization really surprised me.  A crazy fucking disease to be sure. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

17 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Because can we live with, say, 250,000 dead?

Depends on who they are. I'll start a list...

[dcar00 14023]

17 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

That article doesn't accurately summarize the state of the science nor the individual results it reports.

For instance, the Iceland study did not, contrary to the article, find a general prevalence of 13.3%. Rather, the 13.3% was for "targeted testing" (i.e., people with who were symptomatic, had recently traveled to high-risk countries, or had contact with infected persons). Thus, there is going to be a heavy selection bias for people who were more likely to test positive. The same paper also references a general population screening where between .6% and .8% tested positive (there were two general screenings, an open invitation portion and a random population portion).  Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population

The California antibody tests it cites were pretty roundly criticized for flawed methodologies (self selection problems), mathematical errors, and for reliance on unreliable tests.  Experts demolish studies suggesting COVID-19 is no worse than flu.

It also doesn't include New York's efforts, which indicated that the prevalence of the virus is under 13% for that heavily hit state. That also suggest an IFR floor for the state of ~1% (x10 regular flu) based on known NY deaths. (19.45 million * 12.3% = 2.39 million infected. Reported NY deaths were at 24,000 deaths on May 2nd when results announced, which, divided by 2.39 million =  1.00% CFR.)  NY results

 

NY is a different animal. this isn't going to be close to 1%

[Brisketexan 104465]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Depends on who they are. I'll start a list...

Gonna need more paper....

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

3 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Depends on who they are. I'll start a list...

How about every fan at SEC fb conference games on any given Saturday?  Just call it after that.  RIP

[ChickenSandwich 9797]

Update 5/20/20

Travis County WuFlu Deaths

3/27: 1 death

5/16:77 deaths

5/17: 77 deaths

5/18: 79 deaths

5/19: 79 deaths

5/20: 81 deaths (total)...90 (-1) Hospitalized; 39 (+4) ICU; 25 (+4) Ventilator

Last 5 days: +4 deaths (-1)

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

Just now, ChiTownDoc said:

How about every fan at SEC fb conference games on any given Saturday?  Just call it after that.  RIP

[Dahobbs 17420]

16 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

That article doesn't accurately summarize the state of the science nor the individual results it reports.

For instance, the Iceland study did not, contrary to the article, find a general prevalence of 13.3%. Rather, the 13.3% was for "targeted testing" (i.e., people with who were symptomatic, had recently traveled to high-risk countries, or had contact with infected persons). Thus, there is going to be a heavy selection bias for people who were more likely to test positive. The same paper also references a general population screening where between .6% and .8% tested positive (there were two general screenings, an open invitation portion and a random population portion).  Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population

The California antibody tests it cites were pretty roundly criticized for flawed methodologies (self selection problems), mathematical errors, and for reliance on unreliable tests.  Experts demolish studies suggesting COVID-19 is no worse than flu.

It also doesn't include New York's efforts, which indicated that the prevalence of the virus is under 13% for that heavily hit state. That also suggest an IFR floor for the state of ~1% (x10 regular flu) based on known NY deaths. (19.45 million * 12.3% = 2.39 million infected. Reported NY deaths were at 24,000 deaths on May 2nd when results announced, which, divided by 2.39 million =  1.00% CFR.)  NY results

 

Other data point, the Miami-Dade county results estimated between 123,000 and 221,000 infected residents for the county. From Worldometer, the county has reported 578 deaths. So that puts the CFR between  .261% and .469%. Still 2.5 to nearly 5x regular flu.  

[dcar00 14023]

38 minutes ago, Eastwood said:

I took a break from college to try my hand at the real world and found myself in a warehouse in San Antonio during the summer. Job wasn't paying enough, so 6 months later I took a night shift job working the fuel island of a long-haul truck maintenance facility where I also had truck washing duty.  Some time around midnight in late December, the temp was in the low 20s during my shift. The water from the pressure washer nozzle was freezing on contact, creating a dirty ice casing around the trucks and I still had 3 hours to go before I would see the inside of a heated building. That, combined with other horrors that are found in the sleeper cabin of a leased long haul-truck, had me change my position on whether I needed a college education.

I still have over a decade to go before my oldest will be at a working age, but the stories from that place will be sitting in my back pocket until then. Unfortunately, the thing about most boys in their late teens is that they won't believe a word you tell them. They need to feel the rap on the nose themselves before they get the idea.

so I suppose you went into forensics...

[Dahobbs 17420]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

NY is a different animal. this isn't going to be close to 1%

Is there something about New York's population that makes it particularly vulnerable once infected? Are New Yorker's less healthy than the rest of the country on average? If not, what basis do you have for your statement?

[SHOOTER12 8787]

7 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I'd say I've had dozens of patients over the age of 80 recover after needing to be in a special C19 unit.  Now I don't see patients when they get sent to the ICU but the fact none of them even needed the ICU is impressive.  I've also seen many pass but it has been surprising how being really old with comorbidities doesn't spell death - and being young/healthy doesn't necessarily mean you're ok...a few folks that needed hospitalization really surprised me.  A crazy fucking disease to be sure. 

She was sent to the hospital from a nursing home where she had been staying while recovering from a broken hip, and also had caught pneumonia a while back.  When Mrs. Shooter told me she had been put in the hospital, I definitely expected the worst.

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

Is there something about New York's population that makes it particularly vulnerable once infected? Are New Yorker's less healthy than the rest of the country on average? If not, what basis do you have for your statement?

The healthcare system was overwhelmed there for several days in a row.  That alone will lead to more vulnerability.