Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[StruggleBus 3,922]

Just now, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Pic of your wife to see if there’s interest

I said she'd upgrade if I die

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,010]

17 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Hey, I agree learning and changing your position based on new information is important. It's how rational adult brains function. I'm glad you mentioned that. What we've learned overt the course of this pandemic includes:

 

- The virus is spread primarialy through respiratory droplets;

 

- Viral load appears to have at least sone correlation with outcomes;

 

- Masks significantly curb the spread of respiratory droplets. How much depends on material, but generally over 50 percent. That's huge.

 

- The countries that have come out of this relatively well all embrace widespread mask use.

 

Mask use significantly curbs the spread of the virus. That's not a political stance. No one likes it, but it's a small inconvenience for a big time gain. Wearing a mask in crowded or enclosed public spaces isn't political stand, it's being a fucking adult.

 

Which is why I believe people should be wearing masks.

But, I understand the information being spread which counters the information you provided. I don’t think all the people who follow the counter-advice are stupid, just misinformed. I’m sure I could find some examples of me and you being misinformed, as well.

[Eskimohorn 5,610]

Meaning, those same 36,000 were highly likely to get the virus and would have likely died anyway. Of course a few may have been spared with more knowledge and better treatment, but I’m not going to pretend anywhere near 36,000 would have survived this pandemic just because we shut down a little sooner. Again, m opinion based on scientific information I’ve seen.

See better scientific information, and don’t dismiss other sources of scientific information. No offense, but your opinion is ill-informed.

Let’s look at the difference between our collective understanding of this virus between now and March 1. If you were asymptomatic on March 1 and were exposed to C19, you would have almost 0% chance of knowing that you had it. You would be infecting people for up to 14 more days.

Now, testing capacity in many places is adequate. If the 2nd or 3rd person you infected got a positive, you have a very good chance of being notified. There is knowledge and you could do something about it. And not spread it to 30 more people.

distancing, testing, tracking, cleaning, wearing masks, washing hands can mitigate the spread of this disease now, that was not happening back then. And heat and outdoor activities probably has some impact. You delay the spread, you save lives. You anticipate a surge and prepare, you save lives.

Those deaths were preventable in theory, even if you want to make the argument that only in hindsight could we have implemented measures sooner.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

See better scientific information, and don’t dismiss other sources of scientific information. No offense, but your opinion is ill-informed.

Let’s look at the difference between our collective understanding of this virus between now and March 1. If you were asymptomatic on March 1 and were exposed to C19, you would have almost 0% chance of knowing that you had it. You would be infecting people for up to 14 more days.

Now, testing capacity in many places is adequate. If the 2nd or 3rd person you infected got a positive, you have a very good chance of being notified. There is knowledge and you could do something about it. And not spread it to 30 more people.

distancing, testing, tracking, cleaning, wearing masks, washing hands can mitigate the spread of this disease now, that was not happening back then. And heat and outdoor activities probably has some impact. You delay the spread, you save lives. You anticipate a surge and prepare, you save lives.

Those deaths were preventable in theory, even if you want to make the argument that only in hindsight could we have implemented measures sooner.

How are you going to get notified you had it March 1 if you’re on a subway, bus etc where nobody knows your name or who you are?

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,010]

17 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

 

See better scientific information, and don’t dismiss other sources of scientific information. No offense, but your opinion is ill-informed.

Let’s look at the difference between our collective understanding of this virus between now and March 1. If you were asymptomatic on March 1 and were exposed to C19, you would have almost 0% chance of knowing that you had it. You would be infecting people for up to 14 more days.

Now, testing capacity in many places is adequate. If the 2nd or 3rd person you infected got a positive, you have a very good chance of being notified. There is knowledge and you could do something about it. And not spread it to 30 more people.

distancing, testing, tracking, cleaning, wearing masks, washing hands can mitigate the spread of this disease now, that was not happening back then. And heat and outdoor activities probably has some impact. You delay the spread, you save lives. You anticipate a surge and prepare, you save lives.

Those deaths were preventable in theory, even if you want to make the argument that only in hindsight could we have implemented measures sooner.

 

I may be ill-informed, as I stated previously, but haven’t seen evidence of contact tracing being effective in the US. I also haven’t seen an abundance of evidence indicating people are doing a bang up job of quarantining once they do know. Land of the free and all. There have been people in my circle come up positive and no official has reached out to me and it hasn’t motivated me to get tested.

[gmr548 16,482]

Which is why I believe people should be wearing masks.
But, I understand the information being spread which counters the information you provided. I don’t think all the people who follow the counter-advice are stupid, just misinformed. I’m sure I could find some examples of me and you being misinformed, as well.

Sure, but this started as you telling me to respect the opinion of people who decline to wear a mask because it's hot or they don't like it for some other reason, not because they're unaware of anything above for whatever reason. I'm good on that - nothing respectable about personal responsibility for thee and not for me.

[dcar00 14,028]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Bullshit. Everyone knows that the chair is against the wall, and John has a long mustache. Better luck trying to mislead us next time, you fuckin’ commie.

this means Fauci is going to get stuck by a poison umbrella in a mcdonalds right?

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,010]

10 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

1 hour ago, Casual Encounter said:

Which is why I believe people should be wearing masks.
But, I understand the information being spread which counters the information you provided. I don’t think all the people who follow the counter-advice are stupid, just misinformed. I’m sure I could find some examples of me and you being misinformed, as well.

Read more  

Sure, but this started as you telling me to respect the opinion of people who decline to wear a mask because it's hot or they don't like it for some other reason, not because they're unaware of anything above for whatever reason. I'm good on that - nothing respectable about personal responsibility for thee and not for me.

There’s a difference between understanding an opinion and respecting it. I don’t recall stating we should respect the decision, but feel free to point it out. Someone asked a question regarding the reason people wouldn’t wear a mask, I gave a reason (no respect attached) and defended their reason. It’s not an unknown fact that better informed people make better decisions, and in this case, might be more willing to put up with the heat/discomfort if they truly understood the truth.

Are there be selfish people who choose not to, even though they completely understand the science? Absolutely there are, but I don’t necessarily think they are stupid either, just assholes. There are many highly intelligent people out there who don’t give a damn about you or me.

Edited May 21, 2020 by Casual Encounter
You can still respect people without respecting their decisions.

[dcar00 14,028]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

See!   The things she learned during the Spanish Flu are coming in handy!

always knew Brat was a player...going after the 20 year olds when he was 70

[BradInATX 9,208]

39 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

I may be ill-informed, as I stated previously, but haven’t seen evidence of contact tracing being effective in the US.

Have we actually made a serious attempt at doing contact tracing? How can something that has never happened be effective?

Edited May 21, 2020 by BradInATX

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,010]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Have we actually made a serious attempt at doing contact tracing? How can something that has never happened be effective?

Didn’t think so but didn’t want to say it without knowing.

[BradInATX 9,208]

2 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

Didn’t think so but didn’t want to say it without knowing.

Yeah I'm actually mostly seriously asking. I don't think it's really been tried anywhere. I know the mayor of New Orleans tried to get restaurants to take names down or something like that, but it was halfhearted at best and fizzled fast. 

I think the people who are against contact tracing are far more reasonable than the people who can't be bothered to wear a thin layer of cloth over their mouth. Double edged sword between freedom and safety, as the Asian countries have proven it works well.

Edited May 21, 2020 by BradInATX

[Captainant 27,404]

45 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

I may be ill-informed, as I stated previously, but haven’t seen evidence of contact tracing being effective in the US. I also haven’t seen an abundance of evidence indicating people are doing a bang up job of quarantining once they do know. Land of the free and all. There have been people in my circle come up positive and no official has reached out to me and it hasn’t motivated me to get tested.

We used contact tracing to fight the spread of Ebola, from the article linked:

Quote

Although Ebola is new to the United States, the goal of contact tracing is the same in any disease: Track down those who could have been exposed, interview them and monitor them — in this case, for 21 days, the incubation period of the Ebola virus. Those showing symptoms or thought to be at particular risk are isolated, and their contacts traced and monitored, until the outbreak is declared dead.

In the United States, it is far more common for contact tracers employed by local and state health departments to investigate measles, sexually transmitted diseases like H.I.V. and gonorrhea, and illnesses that originate with animals, such as rabies.

It is rare for contact tracers to be in the spotlight. Part disease detective, part social worker, most of the time they sleuth around without anyone really noticing. The most telling sign that a tracer has successfully done his or her job, several epidemiologists said, is that a disease fails to generate any press.

“Every health department has an unsung hero who tracks down people,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, an epidemiologist with the UPMC Center for Health Security in Baltimore. “They are generally really low-paid jobs, but people tend to stay at them for a long time. It’s a labor of love.”

Contrary to Hollywood depictions of disease fighters laden with technical gadgets, contact tracing is generally a low-tech art.

“They go out with clipboards and pieces of paper — write down answers to things,” Dr. Nuzzo said.

The effectiveness of the tracer requires “navigating bureaucracies that are completely foreign to your own experience,” said Derek Cummings, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.

That might mean sweet-talking a hospital administrator into handing over records quickly, tracking down the celebrity guest list when a bartender at a club comes down with hepatitis A, or compiling a list of people who may have bought prairie dogs from an animal distributor in the Midwest linked to a Monkeypox outbreak.

Apologies if I misunderstood your post to say that the US doesn't do contact tracing at all, but we've been using contact tracing in the US to fight the spread of infectious disease for some time

[Dr Fear 1,265]

This very fake looking letter and card from the "Money Network" is actually one of the ways stimulus money is being sent out, don't throw it away!

[JBJ 3,648]

22 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

See better scientific information, and don’t dismiss other sources of scientific information. No offense, but your opinion is ill-informed.

Let’s look at the difference between our collective understanding of this virus between now and March 1. If you were asymptomatic on March 1 and were exposed to C19, you would have almost 0% chance of knowing that you had it. You would be infecting people for up to 14 more days.

Now, testing capacity in many places is adequate. If the 2nd or 3rd person you infected got a positive, you have a very good chance of being notified. There is knowledge and you could do something about it. And not spread it to 30 more people.

distancing, testing, tracking, cleaning, wearing masks, washing hands can mitigate the spread of this disease now, that was not happening back then. And heat and outdoor activities probably has some impact. You delay the spread, you save lives. You anticipate a surge and prepare, you save lives.

Those deaths were preventable in theory, even if you want to make the argument that only in hindsight could we have implemented measures sooner.

 

I like everything you say here, but it's a misleading fact in the preprint that needs proper framing:

1) 36,000 less Covid deaths by May 9, is not saying we prevented 36,000 overall Covid deaths.  That's what @Casual Encounter meant by delay.

2) Shutting down and reopening a week sooner would lead to more overall deaths even if it is close to a net-zero process.

3) Everywhere not named NYC would have been better off easing into economic/social restrictions over time.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,010]

11 minutes ago, Captainant said:

We used contact tracing to fight the spread of Ebola, from the article linked:

I was only referring to the current pandemic. Apologies, it was poorly worded.

[Eskimohorn 5,610]

I may be ill-informed, as I stated previously, but haven’t seen evidence of contact tracing being effective in the US. I also haven’t seen an abundance of evidence indicating people are doing a bang up job of quarantining once they do know. Land of the free and all. There have been people in my circle come up positive and no official has reached out to me and it hasn’t motivated me to get tested.

Its not just contract-tracing but collective awareness. There is massive amount of information about how our behavior and understanding has improved since March 1. And contact tracing programs can assist our understanding even if its not perfect.

[ChickenSandwich 9,798]

Update 5/21/20

Travis County Wuhan Flu Deaths

3/27: 1 death

 

5/17: 77 deaths

5/18: 79 deaths

5/19: 79 deaths

5/20: 81 deaths

5/21: 82 deaths (total)

 

89 (-1) Hospitalized; 38 (-1) ICU; 22 (-3) Ventilator

Last 5 days: +5 deaths (+1)

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

[Eskimohorn 5,610]

I like everything you say here, but it's a misleading fact in the preprint that needs proper framing:
1) 36,000 less Covid deaths by May 9, is not saying we prevented 36,000 overall Covid deaths.  That's what [mention=1347]Casual Encounter[/mention] meant by delay.
2) Shutting down and reopening a week sooner would lead to more overall deaths even if it is close to a net-zero process.
3) Everywhere not named NYC would have been better off easing into economic/social restrictions over time.

1) He meant there’s nothing we can do to save lives. Thats false and while difficult, there are a variety of strategies to mitigate risk and tread water until a proven solution is available
2) Have no idea what youre talking about
3) Urban, rural, and suburban areas have all prevented massive outbreaks by changing behavior. Without massive modifications to social interactions, C19 would cause complete chaos. You want to be ahead of the outbreaks.

If you could travel in a time machine, you would have a more organized restrictions and screening travel to delay the onset of community-spread outbreaks, we would have prepped better, the feds would provide risk-mitigation strategies for a variety if different communities, etc etc and we would have saved lives.

For economic recovery, we need to minimize social interactions at the same time as increasing commercial interactions across sectors. That means thinking outside the box and not just half-assing it.

[dcbc 14,398]

SIAP, Texas Supreme Court Justice Lehrmann and her husband have tested positive.

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/tx-supreme-court-justice-tests-positive-for-coronavirus/2373923/

Looks like her daughter brought the grandkids over to visit.

Edited May 21, 2020 by dcbc

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,010]

39 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:

1) He meant there’s nothing we can do to save lives. Thats false and while difficult, there are a variety of strategies to mitigate risk and tread water until a proven solution is available

You clearly have no idea what I meant despite me explaining it, but since you seem to think you know everything, keep on spewing that shit. You can tread water, I’m going to swim.

[BERT 4,350]

4 hours ago, dcar00 said:

No love for the Hong Kong Flu in 68?

That was just a bunch of Hong Kong Fluey

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'll see myself out

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

5 minutes ago, BERT said:

That was just a bunch of Hong Kong Fluey

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'll see myself out

Thank you....

[TheStoicPaisano 9,904]

2 hours ago, dcar00 said:

this means Fauci is going to get stuck by a poison umbrella in a mcdonalds right?

Sawed off shotgun, McDowell’s.

[BevoSwag 272]

2 hours ago, Dr Fear said:

This very fake looking letter and card from the "Money Network" is actually one of the ways stimulus money is being sent out, don't throw it away!

This guy in Houston is searching mailboxes for government checks

https://nextdoor.com/post/148584625?init_source=copy_link_share

 

[MC Fresh Breath 4,074]

[Incredulity 11,541]

4 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Which isn’t on side 1 of Led Zeppelin IV.  Always bugged the shit out of me.

[Guest Lobo]

^
precisely.  But it was the lyrical inspiration for Damon's character in the other movie. 

[dcbc 14,398]

8 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Which isn’t on side 1 of Led Zeppelin IV.  Always bugged the shit out of me.

I always thought that that was intentional to show how he was screwing up the date from the get-to.  It's a great transition.  Damone tells him when it comes to making out, Side 1 LZIV.  Immediate cut to Rat in the car with Stacy blasting Physical Graffiti.  Love it.

[Guest Lobo]

2 minutes ago, dcbc said:

I always thought that that was intentional to show how he was screwing up the date from the get-to.  It's a great transition.  Damone tells him when it comes to making out, Side 1 LZIV.  Immediate cut to Rat in the car with Stacy blasting Physical Graffiti.  Love it.

Damone knocked his girlfriend up when he wasn't looking, why wouldn't we accept that he also gave him the wrong album advice?  

[dcbc 14,398]

8 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Damone knocked his girlfriend up when he wasn't looking, why wouldn't we accept that he also gave him the wrong album advice?  

That's either next level analysis or next level analysis which ignores two scenarios:  (1) Damone gave good advice, but Rat fucked it up or (2) Damone gave bad advice, but Rat fucked it up.  Either way, Rat fucked it up.  Stacy was DTF after that old yearbook perusal, and Rat made up an excuse about his sister's car over Stacy's protestations and left. 

I choose to believe that they intend it to be a funny transition.  I don't know how involved Cameron Crowe was in the movie (and I never read the book), but his song choices are pretty intentional and I want to believe it's intentional.

/sorry for the disruption all.  Back to your collective epidemiological statistical analysis (which I enjoy) and such.

Edited May 21, 2020 by dcbc

[El Diablo 4,232]

2 hours ago, Lobo said:

Damone knocked his girlfriend up when he wasn't looking, why wouldn't we accept that he also gave him the wrong album advice?  

He also got the COVID from her. Are we back on track now?

[Guest Lobo]

No, he got the COVID from sharing bathing suits with Judge Reinhold.  Yeah, we're back on track.  Wouldn't want to derail this esoteric thread of ontological integrity.   

I only come to this thread for the strudel...it's great.  

[Incredulity 11,541]

40 minutes ago, dcbc said:

I always thought that that was intentional to show how he was screwing up the date from the get-to.  It's a great transition.  Damone tells him when it comes to making out, Side 1 LZIV.  Immediate cut to Rat in the car with Stacy blasting Physical Graffiti.  Love it.

I did consider that, but always took it as Hollywood apathy for anything not specifically Hollywood instead of international.

[Deej 76,524]

Fun fact.  Jennifer Jason Leigh's father was Vic Morrow. Vic was decapitated on the set of The Twilight Zone Movie the same year Fast Times was released. 

[JBJ 3,648]

3 hours ago, Eskimohorn said:

2) Have no idea what youre talking about

I thought this might be the case.

Take 100 people in a circle.  Add 1 more person who is infected with a virus and have everyone shake hands with everyone else.  The transmission of the virus is such that 2 people are infected (R0=2).  The original infectee becomes immune and everyone shakes hands again. An average of 3.92 people become infected.  The original person cannot become infected and the infectious people can not infect each other which removes 0.08 from the exponential number of 4. 

Keep going in that manner: 7.4, 12.8, 18.9, 20.8, 14.2, 5.7, 1.6, .4, .1 .... 

Eventually 89 total people infected out of 101 players.

-----

Impose a limit on round 2 and 3 where everyone in only allowed to shake 50 hands: only 3.84 people will get infected on both of thise rounds combined.  Instead of the original 11.3 people.

11.3 - 3.84 = 7.46 less infections, right? 

So we play out the game: 3.5, 6.4, 10.8, 15.9, 18.3, 14 3, 7.1, 2.5, 0.8, 0.2, 0.1 ....

Eventually 87 players get infected.  Only 2 less.

When we impose the limit on rounds 3 and 4, 85 total players get infected.

4/5: 81 players

-----

So the question we need to ask is in which "round" did we place our shutdown? Exactly where depends on what the sustainable reproduction rate of the virus is coming out of the shutdown, but my best stab right now would be the equivalent of Round 0.05, which is really close to a net-zero.  And earlier is worse, not better.

------

And I'm not saying there weren't valid reasons to shutdown when we did.  We didn't have much to work on at the time, and we probably did prevent some other city from becoming NYC2.  It's just neglible to the overall impact of this thing.

Edited May 22, 2020 by JBJ

[Eastwood 4,394]

6 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

When I was four years old, I watched my mother kill a spider... with a teacosy. Years later, I realised it was not a spider - it was my Uncle Harold.

If all the animals along the equator were capable of flattery, then Thanksgiving and Halloween would fall on the same date.

[Incredulity 11,541]

4 minutes ago, Deej said:

Fun fact.  Jennifer Jason Leigh's father was Vic Morrow. Vic was decapitated on the set of The Twilight Zone Movie the same year Fast Times was released. 

TIL Jennifer Jason Leigh’s father was the a-hole coach in Bad News Bears

[Deej 76,524]

1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

TIL Jennifer Jason Leigh’s father was the a-hole coach in Bad News Bears

 

[Incredulity 11,541]

36 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

I did consider that, but always took it as Hollywood apathy for anything not specifically Hollywood instead of international.

Intentional, not international.

 

not sure how that happened 

[dcbc 14,398]

52 minutes ago, Lobo said:

No, he got the COVID from sharing bathing suits with Judge Reinhold.  Yeah, we're back on track.  Wouldn't want to derail this esoteric thread of ontological integrity.   

I only come to this thread for the strudel...it's great.  

Found your wallet.  Want it back?

[Guest Lobo]

1 minute ago, dcbc said:

Found your wallet.  Want it back?

Would you like another coke?  

[dcbc 14,398]

43 minutes ago, Deej said:

Fun fact.  Jennifer Jason Leigh's father was Vic Morrow. Vic was decapitated on the set of The Twilight Zone Movie the same year Fast Times was released. 

You son of a bitch.

Edited May 22, 2020 by dcbc

[dcbc 14,398]

3 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Would you like another coke?  

I don't know, Rat.  I'm kind of busy . . . . [to the TV]  What happened?!?

That entire scene is gold!

[Deej 76,524]

My dad wasn't a movie theater guy. He only took me to two movies: The Bad News Bears and Smokey and the Bandit. 

[dcbc 14,398]

1 minute ago, Deej said:

My dad wasn't a movie theater guy. He only took me to two movies: The Bad News Bears and Smokey and the Bandit. 

Unpopular opinion.  The Bad News Bears (1976) is the greatest sports movie of all time.

[Deej 76,524]

Just now, dcbc said:

Unpopular opinion.  The Bad News Bears (1976) is the greatest sports movie of all time.

Not unpopular. 

[dcbc 14,398]

1 minute ago, Deej said:

Not unpopular. 

That's the kind of support I like to see on the Surl.  To those of you arguing:  We are not so different!

Edited May 22, 2020 by dcbc

[Deej 76,524]

2 minutes ago, dcbc said:

Unpopular opinion.  The Bad News Bears (1976) is the greatest sports movie of all time.

I always laugh at Chico's Bail Bonds being their sponsor. My high school basketball team was sponsored by The Poodle Dog Lounge. 

Edited May 22, 2020 by Deej

[dcbc 14,398]

That movie is so full of gold, most of which is up Lupus's nose.

 

/try the veal.  I'll be here all weekend.

//crud!!

Edited May 22, 2020 by dcbc