Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Guest Lobo]

Fake news!   That’s the tomato sauce from dominos versus jimmy johns.  
 

it’s gravity ladies and gentlemen.  Our country is actually in the midst of a civil debate on how gravity and saliva work.  It’s impossible that our nation has come to this on memorial day weekend

Edited May 25, 2020 by Lobo

[stone oak 639]

7 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

 

Bacteria != virus (just saying)

[Brisketexan 104,596]

Bacteria != virus (just saying)

Correct. Just like the blue liquid they pour into diapers in tv commercials isn’t actually baby piss....but it sure demonstrates absorption rates.
It’s a demonstration of 1) how many micro particles get through a mask (very few) to 2) how many are ejected without a mask (a lot).

[stone oak 639]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Correct. Just like the blue liquid they pour into diapers in tv commercials isn’t actually baby piss....but it sure demonstrates absorption rates.
It’s a demonstration of 1) how many micro particles get through a mask (very few) to 2) how many are ejected without a mask (a lot).

I understand but I’m referring to size. Viruses are very small relative to bacteria.

[Captainant 27,447]

Just now, stone oak said:

I understand but I’m referring to size. Viruses are very small relative to bacteria.

The virus travels via droplets. A mask will significantly reduce the spread of droplets. 

[bschoolprof 6,232]

2 hours ago, Scary Stranger said:

Well, going by the numbers, it will probably only be 2% of them.

Actually, going by the numbers, since most of these river rats are in their 20s and 30s, it will be about 0.05% of them.  

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

Correct. Just like the blue liquid they pour into diapers in tv commercials isn’t actually baby piss....but it sure demonstrates absorption rates.
It’s a demonstration of 1) how many micro particles get through a mask (very few) to 2) how many are ejected without a mask (a lot).

Biggest scam on earth is that blue line not indicating how full the diaper actually is.

[clapclapclap 9,000]

 

 

Edited May 25, 2020 by clapclapclap

[Brisketexan 104,596]

I understand but I’m referring to size. Viruses are very small relative to bacteria.

The virus travels via droplets. A mask will significantly reduce the spread of droplets. 

This. An individual virus or bacterium doesn’t fly out of your mouth - they are both passengers on droplets. No passenger-carrying droplets landed on dish 1. Plenty landed on dish 2. Dude, I’m far from a scientist, but how this stuff works isn’t actually that complicated.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,010]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Dude not cool, you can't just go posting pics of NowThis without his permission

Does he strike you as a person needing to grant permission?

[atomheartbevo 89,416]

7 hours ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Wear a gott damned mask in enclosed, high density spaces.....it can't hurt, so what's the big deal ?

Since we love shitty analogies, I have an in-law who has to be reminded to do preventative maintenance on her car.  Change the oil, that kind of shit.  Simple things that a 40 year-old should know, and that are done so that things don’t break down and cost more later on.   Her parents bail her ass out when she fucks up, no matter how much we tell them not to bail her out.   She gives no fucks, does not put it on a calendar,  The rest of us stay on her to do these things like get the oil changed, pay her bills, etc. so that her parents don’t have to spend a shitload fixing something that could have easily been prevented.   

Same thing with the masks.  Wear the masks, wash your hands so we don’t have to fucking shut down everywhere in the fall.  It’s not rocket science, and too many of these people bitching aren’t roofing in 100 degree heat or manning a cash register at a grocery store, so they aren’t even having to actually suffer wearing a mask all day or whatever..  

[atomheartbevo 89,416]

3 hours ago, Okie State said:

Can someone explain to me why anyone thinks it's necessary for someone outside to wear one? I guess if you're in a crowded area, but otherwise?

I see bicyclists wearing them.  Real WTF thoughts.  Is there like some situation where all of the sudden they will get in a traffic jam with other cyclists shoulder-to-shoulder?

[Enchubben 5,509]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I see bicyclists wearing them.  Real WTF thoughts.  Is there like some situation where all of the sudden they will get in a traffic jam with other cyclists shoulder-to-shoulder?

Since they’re all dressed up like this vvv  maybe they are expecting to be in a large crowd like they’re lance fucking Armstrong. Cyclists are the worst. 
 

Edited May 25, 2020 by Enchubben

[clapclapclap 9,000]

 

[atomheartbevo 89,416]

So tomorrow we hit 1.7 million cases, and 100,000 deaths.  I've got to say, we are doing a lot better than I thought we would by Memorial Day.

[elfenix 34,171]

I see bicyclists wearing them.  Real WTF thoughts.  Is there like some situation where all of the sudden they will get in a traffic jam with other cyclists shoulder-to-shoulder?

Cuts down on bug eating

[atomheartbevo 89,416]

3 minutes ago, elfenix said:

3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

I see bicyclists wearing them.  Real WTF thoughts.  Is there like some situation where all of the sudden they will get in a traffic jam with other cyclists shoulder-to-shoulder?

Cuts down on bug eating

[ChickenSandwich 9,798]

Update 5/25/20

May 1, 2020 - Beginning on May 1, 2020 (Friday), retail stores, restaurants, places of worship, movie theaters and malls will be allowed to operate at 25% capacity. The Travis County Fire Marshal's Office has provided a business reopening guidance.

Travis County Wuhan Flu Deaths - Cumulative total

3/27: 1 death

5/21: 82 deaths

5/22: 83 death

5/23: 83 deaths

5/24: 84 deaths

5/25: 84 deaths

Last Five Days: +2  (-1)

Travis County Health Care Stats: Current numbers

5/20: Hp - 90, ICU - 39, Vent - 25

5/21: Hp - 89, ICU - 38, Vent - 22

5/22: Hp - 96, ICU - 39, Vent - 24

5/23: Hp - 92, ICU - 38, Vent - 23

5/24: Hp - 82, ICU - 39, Vent - 21

5/25: Hp - 82, ICU - 39, Vent - 21

Last Five Days: Hp: -8, ICU: 0, Vent: 0

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

US Death Total 5/24/20

Nursing Home/Extended Care Deaths: 46,440 (53%)

Remaining Population (all ages):           41,259

Total:                                                           87,698

Highest State Death Totals:

NY: 23,488

NJ: 11,144

Mass: 6,416

Total: 41,048 (46.8% of total deaths)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1ETm51GayRjlnoaRVtUOWfkolEeAQZ-zPhXkCbVe4_ik/htmlview#gid=43566737

[ChiTownDoc 21,098]

6 hours ago, Okie State said:

Can someone explain to me why anyone thinks it's necessary for someone outside to wear one? I guess if you're in a crowded area, but otherwise?

Yes if you’re within 6 feet of someone.  I have one on my arm sleeve in general and put it on in close quarters but just walking on sidewalks you’re usually able to keep your distance - that may change when things open more around here.  
If I don’t have it on and get a look from the sole person around, who’s across the street, I just laugh.  

[NorthLoop 14,089]

We told the bicyclists not to wear masks on purpose. Don't spoil it you assholes.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13,010]

54 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

So tomorrow we hit 1.7 million cases, and 100,000 deaths.  I've got to say, we are doing a lot better than I thought we would by Memorial Day.

Sounds OK, but what about the long term effects on our anuses?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

Yes if you’re within 6 feet of someone.  I have one on my arm sleeve in general and put it on in close quarters but just walking on sidewalks you’re usually able to keep your distance - that may change when things open more around here.  
If I don’t have it on and get a look from the sole person around, who’s across the street, I just laugh.  

If you have antibodies, why aren’t you wearing your antibody cape instead of a mask

[Bevo 13,526]

7 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

 

So bacteria can't penetrate the mask unless from the sides. No shit.

[Bevo 13,526]

1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yes if you’re within 6 feet of someone.  I have one on my arm sleeve in general and put it on in close quarters but just walking on sidewalks you’re usually able to keep your distance - that may change when things open more around here.  
If I don’t have it on and get a look from the sole person around, who’s across the street, I just laugh.  

But the mask mainly protects you from others and you don't have the virus and can't get the virus. So basically, it just protects you from people being dickheads and calling you out for not wearing a mask. I do understand that it is for remaining within the rules, though. I just have a hard time following rules just for the sake of it.

[ChiTownDoc 21,098]

4 minutes ago, Bevo said:

But the mask mainly protects you from others and you don't have the virus and can't get the virus. So basically, it just protects you from people being dickheads and calling you out for not wearing a mask. I do understand that it is for remaining within the rules, though. I just have a hard time following rules just for the sake of it.

Oh man.  Don’t get me started.  I have had 2 ab tests. Both show I had it.  You do not get this again if you’re not immunocompromised.  Maybe next year that changes but not right now.  
 

I live in a condo building and it’s a rule now.  I half ass follow it.  All the employees know me and the situation but some neighbors don’t.  It’s a pain in the ass.  

You’re 100% right.  I’m doing it for optics.  That’s a whole other discussion.  

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20,343]

7 hours ago, stone oak said:

Bacteria != virus (just saying)

 

12 minutes ago, Bevo said:

So bacteria can't penetrate the mask unless from the sides. No shit.

 

Please tell me that nobody on this board is this stupid. PLEASE tell me this. 

Do you really not understand the purpose of the demonstration or are you just trying to fuck with me?

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20,343]

9 hours ago, Scary Stranger said:

Well, going by the numbers, it will probably only be 2% of them.

 

That's good enough.  I presume that the percentage will be higher among Auburn fans. 

[atomheartbevo 89,416]

2 hours ago, Casual Encounter said:

Sounds OK, but what about the long term effects on our anuses?

NowThis is supposed to issue his report any day now.

[MissingInAction 24,814]

8 hours ago, Your Mom said:

Ski mask?  Friday the 13th hockey mask?

More of a duct tape mask.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23,356]

 

[Bevo 13,526]

2 hours ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

 

 

Please tell me that nobody on this board is this stupid. PLEASE tell me this. 

Do you really not understand the purpose of the demonstration or are you just trying to fuck with me?

A human mouth has about 1000 different bacteria in its flora so it is a given that coughing onto a petri dish will show bacterial growth. It is basically the precursor/first step to the experiments which showed a flora of over 1000 different bacteria in the human mouth.

So the second part of the experiment shows that no bacteria are transmitted when coughing from some distance away from the petri dish when wearing a mask. The smallest bacteria are about 0.4 micron in diameter while viruses range in size from 0.02 to 0.25 micron. The coronavirus is about 0.12 microns. N95 masks trap particles larger than 0.3 microns. This means that a N95 mask will block all bacteria and will not block coronavirus. Fortunately, virus generally are expelled on airborne droplets and these are of course large enough for the mask to block them. On the other hand, all masks leak around its edges to some extent. So to summarize, masks will eliminate a good portion of virus particles but will not eliminate all of them. More studies are needed to evaluate their effectiveness. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/face-masks-to-prevent-transmission-of-influenza-virus-a-systematic-review/64D368496EBDE0AFCC6639CCC9D8BC05

With all that said, please inform me what this non-controlled, non-peer reviewed study proves with regard to coronavirus. It seems like a high school science project to me.

Edited May 26, 2020 by Bevo

[Mr. Blutarsky 133]

Anyone living in the Amarillo area? My wife's grandmother passed away in April and the proposed funeral date is for early June (cremated). She was a strong and amazing woman and my wife and I obviously want to honor her and my wife is in need of the grieving process which seems to have been put on hold. The issue is, while we both feel like it should be pushed back, my father in law is most likely going to go ahead with the date in spite of the outbreak in the panhandle. My question for you is how are things being handled up there right now? Are social distancing and masks being utilized or is it not being taken seriously? We have two boys under three who would be coming with us. Neither one of us feel like this is safe or right, but my wife is being put between a rock and a hard place. 

[Pato del Muerto 52,342]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

A human mouth has about 1000 different bacteria in its flora so it is a given that coughing onto a petri dish will show bacterial growth. It is basically the precursor/first step to the experiments which showed a flora of over 1000 different bacteria in the human mouth.

So the second part of the experiment shows that no bacteria are transmitted when coughing from some distance away from the petri dish when wearing a mask. The smallest bacteria are about 0.4 micron in diameter while viruses range in size from 0.02 to 0.25 micron. The coronavirus is about 0.12 microns. N95 masks trap particles larger than 0.3 microns. This means that a N95 mask will block all bacteria and will not block coronavirus. Fortunately, virus generally are expelled on airborne droplets and these are of course large enough for the mask to block them. On the other hand, all masks leak around its edges to some extent. So to summarize, masks will eliminate a good portion of virus particles but will not eliminate all of them. More studies are needed to evaluate their effectiveness. https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/epidemiology-and-infection/article/face-masks-to-prevent-transmission-of-influenza-virus-a-systematic-review/64D368496EBDE0AFCC6639CCC9D8BC05

With all that said, please inform me what this non-controlled, non-peer reviewed study proves with regard to coronavirus. It seems like a high school science project to me.

Also proven is that viral loading has an effect on the seriousness of the sickness, and masks reduce viral loading by capturing particulate matter. 
they don’t need to be perfectly efficient to have a dramatic overall effect on transmission. 

[Buzzrock 14,870]

Anecdote: my friend who is in medical device sales has been visiting hospitals lately and says they are coding everything they can as Covid-19. It protects them and they need the revenue. Even small hospital networks are losing millions.

[Buzzrock 14,870]

Georgia’s unconfirmed case numbers are going back up. Will be interesting to watch as this counts are finalized.

 

 

[Telegraph_it 3,354]

15 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

Georgia’s unconfirmed case numbers are going back up. Will be interesting to watch as this counts are finalized.

 

 

Huzzah! 

[El Diablo 4,232]

Probably already been covered as this thread doesn't miss much but I saw that Japan has for the most part opened back up. Is it possible that the Asians just aren't as susceptible to this as Westerners? 

[gmr548 16,504]

Anyone living in the Amarillo area? My wife's grandmother passed away in April and the proposed funeral date is for early June (cremated). She was a strong and amazing woman and my wife and I obviously want to honor her and my wife is in need of the grieving process which seems to have been put on hold. The issue is, while we both feel like it should be pushed back, my father in law is most likely going to go ahead with the date in spite of the outbreak in the panhandle. My question for you is how are things being handled up there right now? Are social distancing and masks being utilized or is it not being taken seriously? We have two boys under three who would be coming with us. Neither one of us feel like this is safe or right, but my wife is being put between a rock and a hard place. 

That's a tough situation to be in. I'm sorry for that. I know that skipping isn't a realistic choice. Can you at least try to push for it to be a smaller ceremony, and even better, outdoors?

My understanding of Amarillo is that meat plants are the epicenter - I have no idea what the level of community spread is. If anyone working in or with connections to that industry is in attendance, that'd definitely be a red flag.

[gmr548 16,504]

Probably already been covered as this thread doesn't miss much but I saw that Japan has for the most part opened back up. Is it possible that the Asians just aren't as susceptible to this as Westerners? 

Asians aren't any more or less biologically susceptible to a novel virus than anyone else.

Mask use is a big thing - it's par for the course for someone sick there to wear a mask. As soon as news of something like covid breaks, almost everyone masks up. And obviously the test/trace response was much more robust there.

Maybe you could say they're less susceptible in a cultural/societal sense.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,279]

Does anybody know which antibody test on the market is specific to this specific coronavirus?

[Hate 20,103]

35 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

Probably already been covered as this thread doesn't miss much but I saw that Japan has for the most part opened back up. Is it possible that the Asians just aren't as susceptible to this as Westerners? 

You mean other than the Wuhanites?  

[Don Johnson 4,745]

1 hour ago, Buzzrock said:

Georgia’s unconfirmed case numbers are going back up. Will be interesting to watch as this counts are finalized.

 

 

Their testing is way up too.  Would like to see positivity rate.

[bschoolprof 6,232]

55 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

Probably already been covered as this thread doesn't miss much but I saw that Japan has for the most part opened back up. Is it possible that the Asians just aren't as susceptible to this as Westerners? 

Genetically, no - see the Wuhan responses above.

My guess is it's mask use and, possibly, a different strain that hit Japan and SK.  

I will say though that I've read a few studies on mask usage and the evidence that they actually reduce the infection rates for influenza is not strong.  Still, it's hard to observe the Asian experience during COVID vs the rest of the world and not think masks have something to do with it.

There is absolute no solid scientific basis for the strain theory, it just seems possible.  I have a hard time seeing what has happened in Japan vs SK, which have had almost opposite policy responses to COVID yet virtually the same outcomes, and think that that policy/cultural practices are the driving force behind low cases counts and deaths in Asian countries.  Maybe they are just dealing with a different bug than Italy and NYC.  

 

30 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 And obviously the test/trace response was much more robust there.

 

Not in Japan.  They have done relatively little testing (we've conducted 15X as many tests as they have on a per capita basis). They have done some targeted tracing of what they describe as "clusters" of outbreak, but it a) it's nothing compared to SK, and b) it's easy for them because they have had almost no outbreak.   

[Don Johnson 4,745]

Probably already posted, but:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html

 

Quote

 

(CNN)In new guidance for mathematical modelers and public health officials, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is estimating that about a third of coronavirus infections are asymptomatic.

The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.

 

 

And 65% show symptoms.  That would put the mortality rate at 0.26%?

 

[Stella Link 534]

CDC estimates that 35% of coronavirus patients don't have symptoms

The CDC also says its "best estimate" is that 0.4% of people who show symptoms and have Covid-19 will die, and the agency estimates that 40% of coronavirus transmission is occurring before people feel sick.

 

Understand the fact that people are transmitting the virus and they don't know they have it until they get sick. 

But according to the headline, would assume people are getting tested that show no symptoms, but when they get tested they find out they have Covid-19.  Correct?  How can they be "patients" if they don't have symptoms, don't know they have Covid-19, or not sick??  Do they never get sick and still have the virus??  

What is the (estimated) percent of people who are asymptomatic and NEVER get sick?  Do we know that?  I would think it would be difficult to calculate that.

 

 

 

 

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

10 hours ago, Bevo said:

With all that said, please inform me what this non-controlled, non-peer reviewed study proves with regard to coronavirus.

Twitter is 100% truth! Moose out front...

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

2 hours ago, El Diablo said:

Probably already been covered as this thread doesn't miss much but I saw that Japan has for the most part opened back up. Is it possible that the Asians just aren't as susceptible to this as Westerners? 

They are smaller in stature and therefore harder to sneeze on?

[Captainant 27,447]

46 minutes ago, Stella Link said:

What is the (estimated) percent of people who are asymptomatic and NEVER get sick?  Do we know that?  I would think it would be difficult to calculate that.

Man, if only we had some nation-wide testing apparatus with a centralized multi-state data repository for aiding in analysis of the data... I'm sure we'll get around to it after a few more months of inaction

[Dahobbs 17,444]

2 hours ago, Buzzrock said:

Anecdote: my friend who is in medical device sales has been visiting hospitals lately and says they are coding everything they can as Covid-19. It protects them and they need the revenue. Even small hospital networks are losing millions.

What revenue is it getting them? Medicare is paying slightly more for Covid-19 related treatment, but I'm not aware of private insurers following suit. 

47 minutes ago, Don Johnson said:

Probably already posted, but:

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/health/cdc-coronavirus-estimates-symptoms-deaths/index.html

 

 

And 65% show symptoms.  That would put the mortality rate at 0.26%?

 

Using those unsourced assumptions, yes. I'd be interested on what the CDC bases those estimates. Also, keep in mind the purpose of that guidance: it is a set a values to be used by modelers. The CDC provided 5 difference scenarios with different values. The overall symptomatic fatality ratio ranges from .2% - 1%. That said, it is really hard for me to square the best estimate symptomatic case fatality ratio for those over 65 (listed as 1.3%) with other data currently available (e.g., hospitalization information, other studies on IFR).  The rest of it seems fairly reasonable, but that over 65 number seems really low. 

[gmr548 16,504]

Not in Japan.  They have done relatively little testing (we've conducted 15X as many tests as they have on a per capita basis). They have done some targeted tracing of what they describe as "clusters" of outbreak, but it a) it's nothing compared to SK, and b) it's easy for them because they have had almost no outbreak.   

I was speaking to the questiom regarding Asia in general, not necessarialy just Japan, though I concede I didn't realize they were so thin on testing. Part of that, as you mentioned, is simply not having to test a bunch of people coming into hospitals, at meat packing facilities, whatever, because there simply hasn't been an outbreak on that scale.

Knowing that, it very much points to mask use. The stain that impacted Europe, and that accounts for most of US cases, has in fact been found to be different than the original strain in Wuhan. I didn't think about that in my original response, but if I recall the newer strain spreads easier, so that's also part of it. Still, bottom line is that Asian people aren't any less susceptible to getting infected. Combination of better mitigation steps and, to some extent anyway (I believe most cases are imported at this point - probably the US/Europe strain) dealing with a different strain.