Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Captainant 27451]

2 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

 

Perhaps it's also the case that political affiliation is highly correlated with age? Anecdotally, that seems to be the case

Edit: nevermind, misunderstood what the chart was showing. Bad data viz. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Captainant

[UT_OB1 2200]

@ChiTownDoc

Baylor lay offs

Are you seeing a lot of this?  Just saw that Baylor is laying off 1200 people (3% according to article). Found out because one of our guests just got laid off. Not sure if this should go in market talk or where, but I imagine this would be happening in most places soon. Seems possibly bad for the economy and possibly bad for round 2 
 

 

[gmr548 16511]

Crazy how 5 states can make up 50% of the deaths and none of the 5 are in the top 3 populous states in the country

I mean, it includes states 4, 5, 6, 11, and 15, as well as MSA numbers 1, 3, 8, and 11, mossy of which are in close proximity and tightly economically/ culturally connected, and have who knows how much international transit with Europe. The northeast is the most populated region in the country. Chicago is the third largest metro area in the country and a huge international transit point. It's not like it was Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and the Dakotas.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

I mean, it includes states 4, 5, 6, 11, and 15, as well as MSA numbers 1, 3, 8, and 11, mossy of which are in close proximity and tightly economically/ culturally connected, and have who knows how much international transit with Europe. The northeast is the most populated region in the country. Chicago is the third largest metro area in the country and a huge international transit point. It's not like it was Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and the Dakotas.

North east is just one big cluster fuck but still says something about what how Texas Cali and Florida have done considering how much more people they have on their own vs NYC etc

[BradInATX 9208]

1 hour ago, bschoolprof said:

The comparison numbers are off.  Way off. CDC reports 5248 pneumonia deaths for Florida weeks 5-21 this year. This includes 960 Covid cases, for a total of pneumonia without Covid of 4288.  See Table 2 here.

The last 4 years, average pneumonia deaths from weeks 5-21 was 3940.  You can download the data here.  Click downloads, then by state and select the years you want.  

That data you used for your numbers is fucky. If you pivot the whole thing and just look at total pneumonia deaths by year, you get about 180,000 per year over the previous five years for the country, which is obviously not right (it's about 50k/year).

So no, the comparison numbers aren't off - at least not based off of what you're presenting. The data you used is just very wrong by an order of 300-400% on the high side. 

Rule #1 of playing a Holiday Inn Express data scientist - QA your damn work, son.

Edited May 28, 2020 by BradInATX

[Dahobbs 17447]

2 hours ago, dcar00 said:

if the flu/pna combo is marked which one does it go under when there are 30K flu deaths and 60K pna deaths reported in a year?

Both. More than one thing can cause an event or death. 

[ChiTownDoc 21101]

21 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

@ChiTownDoc

Baylor lay offs

Are you seeing a lot of this?  Just saw that Baylor is laying off 1200 people (3% according to article). Found out because one of our guests just got laid off. Not sure if this should go in market talk or where, but I imagine this would be happening in most places soon. Seems possibly bad for the economy and possibly bad for round 2 
 

 

It’s everywhere.  We just hired 2 docs that are  graduating from residency.  One had Mayo pull a contract and the other had NW pull a deal.  We are like join us for a year or two then go back and you’ll get the gig. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.twincities.com/2020/04/10/facing-3b-loss-mayo-clinic-announces-payroll-spending-cuts-for-remainder-of-2020/amp/

 

[Judge Roybeanbag 11810]

 

31 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

2 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Crazy how 5 states can make up 50% of the deaths and none of the 5 are in the top 3 populous states in the country

I mean, it includes states 4, 5, 6, 11, and 15, as well as MSA numbers 1, 3, 8, and 11, mossy of which are in close proximity and tightly economically/ culturally connected, and have who knows how much international transit with Europe. The northeast is the most populated region in the country. Chicago is the third largest metro area in the country and a huge international transit point. It's not like it was Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and the Dakotas.

In addition to proximity and air travel, 4 of those states are also highly connected by commuter rail lines, which I’m sure infected a lot of people all the way from DC to Boston.

[dcar00 14035]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Both. More than one thing can cause an event or death. 

right.  which column do you put them in?

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

 
In addition to proximity and air travel, 4 of those states are also highly connected by commuter rail lines, which I’m sure infected a lot of people all the way from DC to Boston.

Had to. It’s 7 hrs from dc to Boston that includes 5 major metros including the worlds biggest city

[Surly Bevo 24696]

5 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Had to. It’s 7 hrs from dc to Boston that includes 5 major metros including the worlds biggest city

Doesn't even sniff the Top 10

[gmr548 16511]

45 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

North east is just one big cluster fuck but still says something about what how Texas Cali and Florida have done considering how much more people they have on their own vs NYC etc

It's probably too early to say whether or not those three did anything right or if they got lucky, especially given the differences in approach. California may have been dealing with a less contagious strain (though it was likely present there as early as it was in NY). Texas and Florida may have been bailed out by the fact that it's already summer-ish by April (obviously we don't know anything about seasonality definitively, but it's certainly possible).

20 minutes ago, Judge Roybeanbag said:

 

In addition to proximity and air travel, 4 of those states are also highly connected by commuter rail lines, which I’m sure infected a lot of people all the way from DC to Boston.

Yeah, people travel back and forth between the big NE cities frequently, for business and for leisure. They're very interconnected, especially in the Washington-NYC corridor. Honestly the fact that the NYC outbreak did not lead to similar catastrophe in DC, Philly, and Boston is pretty fortunate.

[atomheartbevo 89427]

2 hours ago, Lobo said:

Do they also smell of cabbage?  

[Dahobbs 17447]

20 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

right.  which column do you put them in?

Both. There is overlap. What is confusing about this? 

[dcar00 14035]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Both. There is overlap. What is confusing about this? 

so when CDC states that 30K die a year from flu and 60K a year die from pna.  they don't mean 90k people died?  it was likely less than 90K?

[Js1 85109]

29 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Had to. It’s 7 hrs from dc to Boston that includes 5 major metros including the worlds biggest city

AMTRAK runs a stop to Chonqing?

[Dahobbs 17447]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

so when CDC states that 30K die a year from flu and 60K a year die from pna.  they don't mean 90k people died?  it was likely less than 90K?

Probably. Depends on the exact stat you're citing. There is generally overlap, but sometimes they break out it with flu sans pneumonia and vice versa and then separetly provide the number with both.  

[markstanco 12505]

Probably posted. Don't care. Still funny.

[dcar00 14035]

14 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Probably. Depends on the exact stat you're citing. There is generally overlap, but sometimes they break out it with flu sans pneumonia and vice versa and then separetly provide the number with both.  

actually the vital statistics doesn't have a column for  describing a single death as from both flu and pna.  here's 2017 page 31.

flu 6.5K   pna 49K

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr68/nvsr68_09_tables-508.pdf

CDC uses these numbers on their faststats webview

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/pneumonia.htm

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/flu.htm

 

 

[dcar00 14035]

7 minutes ago, markstanco said:

Probably posted. Don't care. Still funny.
 

that is great.  I can't imagine being a douchnozzle "roving reporter" type.

[Trey3216 15325]

8 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

that is great.  I can't imagine being a douchnozzle "roving reporter" type.

Reporters bitching about people not wearing masks outdoors should shamed, and damn sure when their cameraman isn’t wearing one 

[ChickenSandwich 9798]

19 minutes ago, markstanco said:

Probably posted. Don't care. Still funny.
 

Camera man dead yet?  

[ChiTownDoc 21101]

6 hours ago, Armybrat said:

What I’m trying to say is that can’t the flu cause underlying issues to lead to death? In such cases the deaths could be classified as the underlying cause, not the flu?

A lot of the deniers seem to be claiming that fatal victims with Covid 19 and underlying issues should be classified as the latter, not the Covid. And that the hospitals are inflating the Covid numbers to be reimbursed more $$$$.

Was just trying to make an analogy.

I think Covid 19 victims are undercounted because of some home deaths not being tested.

Jealous about the TexMex.  
 

If they have C19 and die that’s always at least one of the causes of death the way we report it - mind you I don’t see trauma deaths.  

[ChiTownDoc 21101]

19 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Reporters bitching about people not wearing masks outdoors should shamed, and damn sure when their cameraman isn’t wearing one 

Yeah I love how they’re all doctors all of a sudden. STFU and report the news, don’t make up the news.  
Even when a physician is being interviewed they seem to always want to lead the doc a certain way.  So annoying.  

[Incredulity 11564]

18 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

Camera man dead yet?  

He will be dead in 2 weeks in Italy. 

[Trey3216 15325]

4 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Yeah I love how they’re all doctors all of a sudden. STFU and report the news, don’t make up the news.  
Even when a physician is being interviewed they seem to always want to lead the doc a certain way.  So annoying.  

We’re beyond a farce at this point. It’s just sad 

[Chewbacca 7730]

Livestock wise cattle hit 90% of packing capacity today, and boxed beef was solidly lower as well, same for pork. Shortages should be pretty well wrapped up at this point. 

Still deals to be had to buy on the hoof for individual use. My BIL lives in Houston and he's getting a roughly 800 pound grass fed Angus steer for $1000. Processing is only going to run 400-500. So 1400 for a whole cow. That seems like a screaming deal to me, but I've only ever bought whole pigs.

[rpspeed 1351]

[Pato del Muerto 52342]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca said:

11 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

Livestock wise cattle hit 90% of packing capacity today, and boxed beef was solidly lower as well, same for pork. Shortages should be pretty well wrapped up at this point. 

Still deals to be had to buy on the hoof for individual use. My BIL lives in Houston and he's getting a roughly 800 pound grass fed Angus steer for $1000. Processing is only going to run 400-500. So 1400 for a whole cow. That seems like a screaming deal to me, but I've only ever bought whole pigs.

My 1/4 is getting delivered tomorrow. 3.49 per lb hanging weight, processing included.    So yeah that’s a good deal. 

[WBT 20420]

7 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Apparently the Wyoming governor just cancelled the largest 6 rodeos in the state, and people are going apeshit. 

He can't still make Cheyenne?

[XYZ 2154]

5 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Had to. It’s 7 hrs from dc to Boston that includes 5 major metros including the worlds biggest city

You think NY is the world’s biggest city?

[Enchubben 5509]

8 hours ago, BradInATX said:

8 hours ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Crazy how 5 states can make up 50% of the deaths and none of the 5 are in the top 3 populous states in the country

I think it's pretty clear that people in those states have small hands and penises.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

You think NY is the world’s biggest city?

I thought it was, guess not. Shooters shoot

[Dbeasy 14967]

Or the fucking Catalina wine mixer!

[Guest Lobo]

It's not even the largest city in North America.  I don't even think it's in the Top 25 largest cities in the world, let alone #1.  

But you can get back at the doubters by pointing out that the "Chongqing is the biggest" is bullshit.  It's a massive city, but then they just lumped in some other smaller cities that are several miles away into one "population center."  The whole thing has the density of Jacksonville.  In reality, the largest city really is Shanghai.  

[Royalfan5 2348]

6 hours ago, Chewbacca said:

16 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

Livestock wise cattle hit 90% of packing capacity today, and boxed beef was solidly lower as well, same for pork. Shortages should be pretty well wrapped up at this point. 

Still deals to be had to buy on the hoof for individual use. My BIL lives in Houston and he's getting a roughly 800 pound grass fed Angus steer for $1000. Processing is only going to run 400-500. So 1400 for a whole cow. That seems like a screaming deal to me, but I've only ever bought whole pigs.

Cattle are relatively cheap, and processing’s not bad if you can find it, but getting the locker dates been the rub. 

[Js1 85109]

1 hour ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

I thought it was, guess not. Shooters shoot

If we are talking metro areas, it ain’t even top 10 in the world 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

If we are talking metro areas, it ain’t even top 10 in the world 

so it’s 12th out of 50,000 worldwide cities. Sorry

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

If we are talking metro areas, it ain’t even top 10 in the world 

But, it sees one of the most mobile cross sections of people anywhere on the planet, probably.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

37 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

so it’s 12th out of 50,000 worldwide cities. Sorry

in fairness, I’ve been to Shanghai and it just doesn’t feel that big.  NYC (all of it, not just the Federal Prison on Manhattan Island) feels bigger. 

Seoul feels biggest of all the places I have been. 

[Don Johnson 4745]

19 hours ago, Foosters said:

 

Someone smarter than me can fact check this, but this chick breaks it down in detail why she believes Kellen Squire's numbers are false.  The thread is about 30 tweets breaking it down.  

Essentially, its not apples to apples.

The 5,185 comes from multiple cause of death codes.  The number has gone up to 5,248 since Kellen's original tweet.

 

Whereas the 918 comes from a single cause of death:

 

So what is the apples to apples number?

And the 5,248 pneumonia deaths this year may include CV deaths

 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Don Johnson

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

Twitter is absolute garbage when it comes to the truth. It's all spin.

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

So are Covid deaths being called Pneumonia to lower the covid death rate in states/cities ? If Covid leads to a pneumonia death, I'd call that Covid related for sure.

[Don Johnson 4745]

5 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

So are Covid deaths being called Pneumonia to lower the covid death rate in states/cities ? If Covid leads to a pneumonia death, I'd call that Covid related for sure.

I would imagine it happened unintentionally in Jan to mid March across the nation.  Not to the degree Kellen tweeted. And not due to the state trying to manipulate data. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Don Johnson

[B00M 6280]

So fucking tired of the cause of death debate

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

6 minutes ago, B00M said:

So fucking tired of the cause of death debate

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

6 minutes ago, B00M said:

So fucking tired of the cause of death debate

Why ?  It's a valid line of discussion, irregardless of you're personal stance IMO.

[dcar00 14035]

14 minutes ago, B00M said:

So fucking tired of the cause of death debate

sure lets move back to why the fuck NY sent covid patients to old folks homes...or maybe the docs can start measuring dicks again

[Captainant 27451]

Just now, dcar00 said:

sure lets move back to why the fuck NY sent covid patients to old folks homes...or maybe the docs can start measuring dicks again

Missing the forest for the trees if you want to attack a state for making decisions on the fly in the absolute vacuum of leadership and guidance from the feds on covid. But you tend to get banned for saying such things. 

[dcar00 14035]

35 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

So are Covid deaths being called Pneumonia to lower the covid death rate in states/cities ? If Covid leads to a pneumonia death, I'd call that Covid related for sure.

here's the rub.  they don't treat the flu to pneumonia the same way.