Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[BradInATX 9208]

5 minutes ago, Hate said:

You’re the one who started it yet again this morning until your thread Karen came your defense.

LOL. You and a group of about 6-8 posters did nothing but spend the first 700 pages of this thread crying about political posts. None of you get to call anyone a Karen. 

The only reason that the hypocritical crying about political posts by that group has slowed down is because a significant number have been kicked off for making too many political posts. Now they've just resorted to negging any posts they don't like to see in their safe space. Pussies.

Edited May 28, 2020 by BradInATX

[Incredulity 11565]

Just now, BradInATX said:

LOL. You and a group of about 6-8 posters did nothing but spend the first 700 pages of this thread crying about political posts. None of you get to call anyone a Karen. 

The only reason that the hypocritical crying about political posts by that group has slowed down is because a significant number have been kicked off for making too many political posts. Now they've just resorted to negging any posts they don't like.

delicious irony is delicious

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, Incredulity said:

delicious irony is delicious

The only posts I've negged on this thread are political posts. You on the other hand..

Edited May 28, 2020 by BradInATX

[Hate 20103]

 

3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

 

yup sure did, champ.

And you just had to respond, didn't you? 

[Hate 20103]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The only posts I've negged on this thread are political posts. You on the other hand..

Did you neg Captainant?

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, Hate said:

Did you neg Captainant?

Nope. Why would I need to do that? The group of 5-6 that I'm talking about do a plenty good job of that every time he or anyone posts something that invades their safe space.

BTW, not necessarily talking about you re:negging. As far as I remember, you aren't a big negger.

Edited May 28, 2020 by BradInATX

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

Look everybody, Brad has spoken. No more discussion of how NYC completely fucked up, and contributed to the deaths of thousands of senior citizens....

 

GOT IT !!!

 

No more talk about one cities complete, and utter fuck up causing thousands of additional deaths....

 

END OF DISCUSSION....... cased closed on NYC's contribution to the number of deaths.

 

Happy Brad ?  I got yer back......

 

EDIT:  New leader for the biggest pussy on Surly Brad from TX....  What's the problem Brad, I only echoed your post, and supported your position  we shouldn't call out NYC for creating additional needless deaths...

EDIT 2:  Now brad has confuz......  uhh ohhh.

Edited May 28, 2020 by Onboard 2.0

[Hate 20103]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Nope. Why would I need to do that? The group of 5-6 that I'm talking about do a plenty good job of that.

BTW, not necessarily talking about you re:negging. As far as I remember, you aren't a big negger.

I've negged 7 posts on Surly and I never retaliate with negs.  I don't care if I get negged.  I may have negged fewer than 10 posts on Shaggy.  If I don't like a post I either ignore it or respond to it. 

 

Edit:  and his post was political which should draw a neg from you based on your stance. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Hate

[clapclapclap 9000]

5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

As far as I remember, you aren't a big negger.

Reported.

[BradInATX 9208]

6 minutes ago, Hate said:

I've negged 7 posts on Surly and I never retaliate with negs.  I don't care if I get negged.  I may have negged fewer than 10 posts on Shaggy.  If I don't like a post I either ignore it or respond to it. 

 

Edit:  and his post was political which should draw a neg from you based on your stance. 

Never said I negged every political post. But I am going to neg every post that brings up the same thing that's been discussed ad nauseum regarding NYC, regardless of what side the poster is on. It's beyond beaten to death and adds absolutely nothing to the thread. Everyone knows what Cuomo did. Everyone knows it was a mistake (how preventable, who knows). It's time to move on. It's beyond obnoxious to come to this thread looking for information (probably my bad to expect that at this point) only to be greeted by four new pages of the same circular NYC discussion that's been going on for three weeks now.

But anyway, sorry to interrupt the "let's post political shit and pretend we're not talking politics" party. Carry on everyone.

Edited May 28, 2020 by BradInATX

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

29 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The only posts I've negged on this thread are political posts. You on the other hand..

You negged the post where I answered a question about the dates of the CDC's report. You are negging shit that doesn't fit your narrative, which you are welcome to do. But don't get pissy when people give you shit about it.

[Buzzrock 14871]

JFC would you guys shut the fuck up and stay on topic?

Upon further review of that Georgia DPH page it seems lab testing has been flattish on the aggregate. So we may be seeing more cases. Unfortunately the hospitalizations number is not reported as a trend, only a number. That would be nice to know.

It does look like the hot spot in Southwest Georgia has cooled.

[GreenspointTexas 9566]

24 minutes ago, Hate said:

I've negged 7 posts on Surly and I never retaliate with negs.  I don't care if I get negged.  I may have negged fewer than 10 posts on Shaggy.  If I don't like a post I either ignore it or respond to it. 

 

Edit:  and his post was political which should draw a neg from you based on your stance. 

Same

[BradInATX 9208]

You negged the post where I answered a question about the dates of the CDC's report. You are negging shit that doesn't fit your narrative, which you are welcome to do. But don't get pissy when people give you shit about it.

LOL. You know why I negged that one and you know it has nothing do to with narrative.

[Brisketexan 104604]

7 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

JFC would you guys shut the fuck up and stay on topic?

Upon further review of that Georgia DPH page it seems lab testing has been flattish on the aggregate. So we may be seeing more cases. Unfortunately the hospitalizations number is not reported as a trend, only a number. That would be nice to know.

It does look like the hot spot in Southwest Georgia has cooled.

The bolded, for sure.  Hospitalization trends are what I want to see, because those disregard all the noise about testing and confirmed cases.  How many people are sick enough to go to the hospital over a given time -- that tells us what we need to know with respect to trends.  At this point, I think it's the most important number to track.

[Anastasis 23395]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The bolded, for sure.  Hospitalization trends are what I want to see, because those disregard all the noise about testing and confirmed cases.  How many people are sick enough to go to the hospital over a given time -- that tells us what we need to know with respect to trends.  At this point, I think it's the most important number to track.

Yep.  Most of our containment measures have been about one thing, preventing our healthcare system from being overwhelmed. Daily hospital census, icu, and vents are all that matters. Well that, and not seeding nursing homes with COVID cases. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Anastasis

[utee94 15745]

17 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

JFC would you guys shut the fuck up and stay on topic?

Upon further review of that Georgia DPH page it seems lab testing has been flattish on the aggregate. So we may be seeing more cases. Unfortunately the hospitalizations number is not reported as a trend, only a number. That would be nice to know.

It does look like the hot spot in Southwest Georgia has cooled.

This site has historical data and rolling averages for Georgia and every other state.  They cover testing, confirmed cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Not sure it matches up to what you're seeing from your sources, though.  Might be worth poking around if you're interested:

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

 

Edited May 28, 2020 by utee94

[Hate 20103]

Doesn’t it stand to reason as we see fewer and fewer at risk people out and about that the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths will continue to trend down? If, for the most part, the only people catching the virus going forward are this that are asymptomatic or nit sick enough to warrant hospitalization, the virus is going to run out of people to kill.

[dcar00 14035]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

 

The statistics are reported in different ways, in different locations, for different purposes, and by different entities. If you've ever seen a death certificate or how that information is stored electronically, you'd know that they contain multiple entries for causes of death. Typically, there is one section for "immediate cause of death" and then a listing of "underlying causes."

The NCHS report cited in that first link has its own methodology for identifying the single cause "which initiated the train of morbid events leading directly to the death or the circumstances of the accident or violence which produced the fatal injury." Basically, the system takes in data from the the death certificates and identifies that single initiating cause based on a set of rules and procedures. A more detailed description of that process is below:

In other places the data is reported differently, and does include overlap with multiple causes. You really have to look at the purpose and methodology behind the statistic your citing. For instance, the NCHS report is based on actual death certificate data. However, the CDC for instance estimates overall mortality associated with flu as several times higher than the ~6,000 deaths found in the NCHS report. The NCHS includes every single death in the US (~2.8 million per year in the US) and provides a single underlying or initiating cause for each death. So, those additional flu related deaths identified by the CDC aren't new deaths in addition to the 2.8 million, but rather influenza related deaths that overlap with other causes reported in the NCHS data. 

Yes I realize how a death certificate looks and is filled out.

right.  so these(first bolded part) should be used as the numbers.  CDC flu death numbers are not represented as estimates overall mortality "associated" with the flu(as you put it, maybe the CDC states it that way somewhere).  They are represented as "estimated flu deaths", not "deaths of people who had flu has an underlying cause but their immediate cause of death was not flu".

agreed that the flu "related" deaths are not new deaths.

Shouldn't we just say 6.5K people died of flu in 2017 and 49K died of pneumonia.  why the additional estimation?

 

 

 

[Onboard 2.0 9083]

7 minutes ago, Hate said:

Doesn’t it stand to reason as we see fewer and fewer at risk people out and about that the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths will continue to trend down? If, for the most part, the only people catching the virus going forward are this that are asymptomatic or nit sick enough to warrant hospitalization, the virus is going to run out of people to kill.

Hopefully.

[Dahobbs 17447]

3 minutes ago, Hate said:

Doesn’t it stand to reason as we see fewer and fewer at risk people out and about that the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths will continue to trend down? If, for the most part, the only people catching the virus going forward are this that are asymptomatic or nit sick enough to warrant hospitalization, the virus is going to run out of people to kill.

It only makes sense if those at risk people are also avoiding contact with anyone that is going out. And, even at the lower hospitalization and mortality rates for younger populations (<60), with 253 million folks in that grouping and a mortality rate of .05%, you still have 126,500 potential deaths  and some multiple higher in hospitalizations. 

[dcar00 14035]

48 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Never said I negged every political post. But I am going to neg every post that brings up the same thing that's been discussed ad nauseum regarding NYC, regardless of what side the poster is on. It's beyond beaten to death and adds absolutely nothing to the thread. Everyone knows what Cuomo did. Everyone knows it was a mistake (how preventable, who knows). It's time to move on. It's beyond obnoxious to come to this thread looking for information (probably my bad to expect that at this point) only to be greeted by four new pages of the same circular NYC discussion that's been going on for three weeks now.

But anyway, sorry to interrupt the "let's post political shit and pretend we're not talking politics" party. Carry on everyone.

why so sensitive about NYC? Yankees suck and Jeter is overrated.

[Captainant 27450]

5 minutes ago, Hate said:

Doesn’t it stand to reason as we see fewer and fewer at risk people out and about that the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths will continue to trend down? If, for the most part, the only people catching the virus going forward are this that are asymptomatic or nit sick enough to warrant hospitalization, the virus is going to run out of people to kill.

You'd hope as much, but the people who go out and about tend to at some point have first or second degree contact with an at-risk person. As it stands, our current effort at social distancing has insulated those people. Only problem is, the virus isn't going to just go away like a miracle if we hope really hard, and there's still plenty of people for the virus to kill.

Based on current number of 1.7 million confirmed COVID cases, if we assume that we haven't tested ANY asymptomatic patients (let's say 80% of COVID cases are asymptomatic for sake of argument) and that number is only representative of symptomatic cases, that's only 10 million COVID cases. In a nation of 300 million people. For a total case rate around 3% of the US population.

[Captainant 27450]

Just now, dcar00 said:

Its well north of 10% of the population right now.

based on...?

[dcar00 14035]

1 minute ago, Captainant said:

You'd hope as much, but the people who go out and about tend to at some point have first or second degree contact with an at-risk person. As it stands, our current effort at social distancing has insulated those people. Only problem is, the virus isn't going to just go away like a miracle if we hope really hard, and there's still plenty of people for the virus to kill.

Based on current number of 1.7 million confirmed COVID cases, if we assume that we haven't tested ANY asymptomatic patients (let's say 80% of COVID cases are asymptomatic for sake of argument) and that number is only representative of symptomatic cases, that's only 10 million COVID cases. In a nation of 300 million people. For a total case rate around 3% of the US population.

Its well north of 10% of the population right now.

[BradInATX 9208]

Its well north of 10% of the population right now.

Source?

[Dahobbs 17447]

8 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Yes I realize how a death certificate looks and is filled out.

right.  so these(first bolded part) should be used as the numbers.  CDC flu death numbers are not represented as estimates overall mortality "associated" with the flu(as you put it, maybe the CDC states it that way somewhere).  They are represented as "estimated flu deaths", not "deaths of people who had flu has an underlying cause but their immediate cause of death was not flu".

agreed that the flu "related" deaths are not new deaths.

Shouldn't we just say 6.5K people died of flu in 2017 and 49K died of pneumonia.  why the additional estimation?

 

 

 

As I said, it depends on the purpose of the statistic. From a healthcare related standpoint, it is important to know when flu contributes to death, even if it isn't the initiating cause, e.g., someone with a weakened immune system due to something like AIDs or diabetes getting the flu and dying. In that instance, you might say diabetes was the initiating cause of death, but that the flu was the immediate cause of death. Both contributed to death and without both it doesn't happen. I don't understand why this bothers you so much. You just need to understand how and why a statistic is being reported. 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Dahobbs

[UT_OB1 2200]

32 minutes ago, Buzzrock said:

JFC would you guys shut the fuck up and stay on topic?

Upon further review of that Georgia DPH page it seems lab testing has been flattish on the aggregate. So we may be seeing more cases. Unfortunately the hospitalizations number is not reported as a trend, only a number. That would be nice to know.

It does look like the hot spot in Southwest Georgia has cooled.

 

24 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The bolded, for sure.  Hospitalization trends are what I want to see, because those disregard all the noise about testing and confirmed cases.  How many people are sick enough to go to the hospital over a given time -- that tells us what we need to know with respect to trends.  At this point, I think it's the most important number to track.

According to this site Ga Covid Data testing was under 10k test per day from the end of April to roughly 5/8. As of 5/17 there have been at least 15k tests per day, and almost 20k as of yesterday. So this indicates a very large increase in testing with very small increase in confirmed cases. 

12 minutes ago, Hate said:

Doesn’t it stand to reason as we see fewer and fewer at risk people out and about that the numbers of hospitalizations and deaths will continue to trend down? If, for the most part, the only people catching the virus going forward are this that are asymptomatic or nit sick enough to warrant hospitalization, the virus is going to run out of people to kill.

If we can keep it out of nursing homes and keep 60+ SiP to some extent, we could save lives from covid and save lives from the economic downturn. Win/win

[dcar00 14035]

4 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Source?

CDC gave a best estimate of .26% IFR.  so 40M would have it now. that good enough?

[DDD Dad 14251]

CR talk and neg-whining in the DT not going away.

[Brisketexan 104604]

1 minute ago, dcar00 said:

CDC gave a best estimate of .26% IFR.  so 40M would have it now. that good enough?

Yeah....and that seems really, really freaking high.  Which makes the CDC estimates suspect in my mind.  The data we see, even in the CDC's aggregation, is still very unreliable (not nefarious, that's to be expected in a novel and still-unfolding illness).

[dcar00 14035]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

As I said, it depends on the purpose of the statistic. From a healthcare related standpoint, it is important to know when flu contributes to death, even if it isn't the initiating cause, e.g., someone with a weakened immune system due to something like AIDs or diabetes getting the flu and dying. In that instance, you might say diabetes was the initiating cause of death, but that the flu was the immediate cause of death. Both contributed to death and without both it doesn't happen. I don't understand why this bothers you so much. You just need to understand how and why a statistic is being reported. 

 Logically, I see no reason to estimate flu deaths when the number is there in black and white.  Its a statistic.  why does it bother you that I might be bothered?

[WBT 20420]

4 minutes ago, UT_OB1 said:

 

According to this site Ga Covid Data testing was under 10k test per day from the end of April to roughly 5/8. As of 5/17 there have been at least 15k tests per day, and almost 20k as of yesterday. So this indicates a very large increase in testing with very small increase in confirmed cases. 

Yeah, Georgia's testing rate has been on a steep climb, up about 80% in the last 3 weeks.  The daily case rate over the same time has increased less than 20%.  The number of daily new infections is almost certainly decreasing.

 

[Anastasis 23395]

 

[dcar00 14035]

4 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah....and that seems really, really freaking high.  Which makes the CDC estimates suspect in my mind.  The data we see, even in the CDC's aggregation, is still very unreliable (not nefarious, that's to be expected in a novel and still-unfolding illness).

certainly you are entitled to feel it is high.  I was asked for a source and I gave the "OMG science guys!" as source.  can't get much better than that.

[Eskimohorn 5615]

It only makes sense if those at risk people are also avoiding contact with anyone that is going out. And, even at the lower hospitalization and mortality rates for younger populations (

1.26m potential deaths. The initial 2m potential deaths was probably if we did nothing and let herd immunity (70% of all people) stop it.

Since we have no cohesive public health strategy across 50 states and thousands of cities and counties, our effective strategy is like a rope-a-dope where we tire the virus out until we can knock it out with a vaccine.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

Are we merely supporting science which supports our already formed opinions? I need to know how to proceed.

[dcar00 14035]

2 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

Are we merely supporting science which supports our already formed opinions? I need to know how to proceed.

...with caution

[Lurch 5921]

Yeah, Georgia's testing rate has been on a steep climb, up about 80% in the last 3 weeks.  The daily case rate over the same time has increased less than 20%.  The number of daily new infections is almost certainly decreasing.
 

Do they count the test when it’s taken or when results come in? I think it’s the former. If there’s still a 2 week lag in getting results, the case count is tied to testing count from 2-3 weeks ago

[bschoolprof 6232]

Texas trends:

[dcar00 14035]

1 minute ago, Lurch said:

 

Do they count the test when it’s taken or when results come in? I think it’s the former. If there’s still a 2 week lag in getting results, the case count is tied to testing count from 2-3 weeks ago

 

the lag is supposed to be a few days now not weeks.

[Lurch 5921]

I read recently that the second wave of the 1918 flu was a mutated version that was more deadly than the first wave. When you hear talk of the potential second wave of COVID-19 do keep this in mind. It may not mutate. It may mutate and be less serious. It may mutate and be more serious.

[BradInATX 9208]

16 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

CDC gave a best estimate of .26% IFR.  so 40M would have it now. that good enough?

12%

"Well above 10%!"

But, I'm proud of you for venturing out of your "every post is about NYC" comfort zone. Keep working at it.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

21 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

CR talk and neg-whining in the DT not going away.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

3 minutes ago, Lurch said:

I read recently that the second wave of the 1918 flu was a mutated version that was more deadly than the first wave. When you hear talk of the potential second wave of COVID-19 do keep this in mind. It may not mutate. It may mutate and be less serious. It may mutate and be more serious.

Well that narrows it down...

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

I just wish there would be a massive Woodstock-like gathering of young people this summer. Call it, COVID Crush. A month-long party, June 1st through July 4, followed by a two week recovery (quarantine). That would at least establish herd immunity for college kids and we’d definitely have college football. They could just fill the lower sections of the stadiums with students and we could watch from the comfort of our homes.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

Is it that time of the month, Brad?

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

Just now, Casual Encounter said:

I just wish there would be a massive Woodstock-like gathering of young people this summer. Call it, COVID Crush. A month-long party, June 1st through July 4, followed by a two week recovery (quarantine). That would at least establish herd immunity for college kids and we’d definitely have college football. They could just fill the lower sections of the stadiums with students and we could watch from the comfort of our homes.

Can we televise it and PPV?

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

Is it that time of the month, Brad?

Nope. Just decided to respond in kind to politically driven passive aggressive bitchassedness.

Edited May 28, 2020 by BradInATX

[Armybrat 40736]

My son’s FIL, age 77,  passed away this morning from the Coronavirus. He had failing kidneys prior to going into the hospital, so it will be interesting to see if that is added to his death certificate.

RIP K.D.