Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13010]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Any doctors on here feel free to tell me to fuck off of I'm mistaken.

I’m not a doctor and I have no idea if you’re mistaken, but I believe it’s my constitutional right to tell you to fuck off anyway. 

[Johnny Sack 8397]

I’m guessing big death numbers today catching up.  Wish they’d do a 7 day average.  I find that very important.  

[Foosters 17730]

10 minutes ago, Casual Encounter said:

but I believe it’s my constitutional right to tell you to fuck off anyway. 

On the internet?!

Not so fast!

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

Supposedly 60% of people wearing a mask 60% of the time can get the R value under 1.  That could be huge. 

Also there's some people in the know who are pretty optimistic about the vaccines.  As in possibly to the masses early 2021 and to healthcare workers earlier.  That would be a fucking game changer...the likes of which I may not have ever seen in my life.  Stop the madness!

[Royalfan5 2348]

So after about 3 weeks of progress, Tyson had to shut down another pork packing plant in Iowa with 555 of 2400 workers currently testing positive. As long it’s just that one it shouldn’t hurt the recovery too badly 

[Guest Lobo]

12 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Supposedly 60% of people wearing a mask 60% of the time can get the R value under 1.  That could be huge. 

Also there's some people in the know who are pretty optimistic about the vaccines.  As in possibly to the masses early 2021 and to healthcare workers earlier.  That would be a fucking game changer...the likes of which I may not have ever seen in my life.  Stop the madness!

Bill Gates' Chief of Staff said not to expect a vaccine in 2020.  FWIW.  

I'm personally self-medicating with vodka and lysol wipes.  In an order that would surprise you 

Edited May 28, 2020 by Lobo

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

5 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Bill Gates' Chief of Staff said not to expect a vaccine in 2020.  FWIW.  

I'm personally self-medicating with vodka and lysol wipes.  In an order that would surprise you 

I agree not for the masses.  But first quarter 2021 for the masses would be game changer.  And that's realistic right now based on where we are in trials with the 10 or so vaccines that have been approved for human testing. 

[WBT 20419]

6 hours ago, UT_OB1 said:

 

According to this site Ga Covid Data testing was under 10k test per day from the end of April to roughly 5/8. As of 5/17 there have been at least 15k tests per day, and almost 20k as of yesterday. So this indicates a very large increase in testing with very small increase in confirmed cases. 

If we can keep it out of nursing homes and keep 60+ SiP to some extent, we could save lives from covid and save lives from the economic downturn. Win/win

 

5 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Is there any data on how the population has reacted to the reopening?  Using caution or reckless abandon?

I'm not sure mobility is that great of a proxy for distancing but data at the link above showed mobility down about 50% from baseline at the lowest and still 25% below baseline currently.

[EuroHorn 3204]

The Cheetah will be open on Monday at 4pm est 

 

Governor allows bars, nightclubs to reopen while extending public health emergency
 

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/gov-brian-kemp-update-georgias-fight-against-coronavirus/EY2AG5SXYZF3HL2ZQQZ2NMNETE/

Edited May 29, 2020 by EuroHorn

[Scary Stranger 1712]

1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Supposedly 60% of people wearing a mask 60% of the time can get the R value under 1.  That could be huge. 

Also there's some people in the know who are pretty optimistic about the vaccines.  As in possibly to the masses early 2021 and to healthcare workers earlier.  That would be a fucking game changer...the likes of which I may not have ever seen in my life.  Stop the madness!

 

1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I agree not for the masses.  But first quarter 2021 for the masses would be game changer.  And that's realistic right now based on where we are in trials with the 10 or so vaccines that have been approved for human testing. 

Yeah, I'm not gonna be first in line for the fast-tracked vaccine.  Willing to take my chances for another year to see how that  plays out over a cycle or two. 

[Bevo 13526]

2 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Supposedly 60% of people wearing a mask 60% of the time can get the R value under 1.  That could be huge. 

Also there's some people in the know who are pretty optimistic about the vaccines.  As in possibly to the masses early 2021 and to healthcare workers earlier.  That would be a fucking game changer...the likes of which I may not have ever seen in my life.  Stop the madness!

If an adenovirus vector is being used, I may hold off until another vaccine is available. I have always hated that approach. The only good news is that scientists have been studying using adenovirus vectors in human therapies for at least 20 years.

[Enchubben 5509]

25 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

The Cheetah will be open on Monday at 4pm est 

 

Governor allows bars, nightclubs to reopen while extending public health emergency
 

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/gov-brian-kemp-update-georgias-fight-against-coronavirus/EY2AG5SXYZF3HL2ZQQZ2NMNETE/

One of my all time favorite clubs. Quite the talent walking through that joint. 

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

26 minutes ago, Bevo said:

If an adenovirus vector is being used, I may hold off until another vaccine is available. I have always hated that approach. The only good news is that scientists have been studying using adenovirus vectors in human therapies for at least 20 years.

I think one of the traditional ones will be approved first even though the adenovirus prototypes may be ahead right now.  
Either way, there’s legit hope.  We need that.  At least I do.  

[Anastasis 23394]

11 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I think one of the traditional ones will be approved first even though the adenovirus prototypes may be ahead right now.  
Either way, there’s legit hope.  We need that.  At least I do.  

Agree. I think that the Chinese inactivated virus will hit first. Not thrilled with novel mechanisms of action in this setting. Think some people need to throw resources at the tried and true methods. 

[Anastasis 23394]

56 minutes ago, Scary Stranger said:

 

Yeah, I'm not gonna be first in line for the fast-tracked vaccine.  Willing to take my chances for another year to see how that  plays out over a cycle or two. 

My family will sit back a bit a let the Post marketing guinea pigs do their thing. Not sure that we will wait a year, but a couple months should be sufficient to shake out the kinks. We will have a vast surveillance program in place with this roll out. 

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

5 hours ago, gmr548 said:

My understanding from reading up on the subject is that the 1918 flu mutation is considered an anomaly because the nastier strain of the virus, the one requiring soldiers to be transported bank home from the war, is what was spreading, while the soldiers with the less damaging strain were left in the trenches, which meant it didn't really spread beyond there.

That's the opposite of how it works normally - the lighter strain spreads because its hosts are up and moving and infecting others, while a more damaging version incapacitates the hosts and makes them pretty useless as vectors. A virus doesn't have an incentive to mutate into a more deadly form. It spreads better by keeping hosts alive and in contact with other potential hosts.

Any doctors on here feel free to tell me to fuck off of I'm mistaken.

Yep.  Pretty much nailed it. 

Edited May 29, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[gmr548 16504]

3 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Supposedly 60% of people wearing a mask 60% of the time can get the R value under 1.  That could be huge. 

Also there's some people in the know who are pretty optimistic about the vaccines.  As in possibly to the masses early 2021 and to healthcare workers earlier.  That would be a fucking game changer...the likes of which I may not have ever seen in my life.  Stop the madness!

[strangulation! 1703]

1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I think one of the traditional ones will be approved first even though the adenovirus prototypes may be ahead right now.  
Either way, there’s legit hope.  We need that.  At least I do.  

any thoughts on which ones are leading the pack? asking for a friend's stonking portfolio

[Trey3216 15325]

12 hours ago, B00M said:

Because it's been the same 2-3 questions for seemingly dozens of pages. Dahobbs has at least tried to research it and individually answered them 10+ times. Worst case, it amounts to maybe 20% error +/- in the death count. It ultimately makes no difference to how we should approach this pandemic. 

Do we have meaningful data out of Georgia yet?or vaccine news? or any news worth our time to read?

A 20+/- error % on data doesn’t make you re-think data?   Jesus Christ.   Which district do you help run election polls?  

[Brisketexan 104596]

A 20+/- error % on data doesn’t make you re-think data?   Jesus Christ.   Which district do you help run election polls?  

Actually, for a fast-moving novel disease we’ve been measuring for just a a few months, that margin of error isn’t terrible, and the ultimate conclusion is that the numbers give us a decent idea of the actual impact.

[Ignatius 4001]

8 hours ago, EuroHorn said:

Quite a few folks out and dining in midtown area. Not much social distancing in and around the piedmont park area.  Mask usage is about 50/50.  Traffic seems to be steadily  increasing but is still lighter than normal. 

Same thing in Roswell/Alpharetta....

[BBQ2Bayou 807]

2 hours ago, EuroHorn said:

The Cheetah will be open on Monday at 4pm est 

 

Governor allows bars, nightclubs to reopen while extending public health emergency
 

https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/atlanta/gov-brian-kemp-update-georgias-fight-against-coronavirus/EY2AG5SXYZF3HL2ZQQZ2NMNETE/

That's how you lead a story 

[Trey3216 15325]

8 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Goddamit.  This era has really brought home to me one big lesson: I could be worth a kajillion dollars if I just didn't have a conscience and was willing to grift like a motherfucker.  "holographic nano-layer catalyser" -- that's f'n BRILLIANT.

“That’s right, Dude, the beauty is in the simplicity.”  ....gif 

[Iceman 2639]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Actually, for a fast-moving novel disease we’ve been measuring for just a a few months, that margin of error isn’t terrible, and the ultimate conclusion is that the numbers give us a decent idea of the actual impact.

LOLz.

 

The narratives have driven this entire thing more than the numbers ever have.  Critical thinking is way the fuck out the window.

We make the stats say what we want to.  hell, at least the Dak defenders in the Cowboy thread can't shut the country down...

[B00M 6280]

7 hours ago, Iceman said:

The narratives have driven this entire thing more than the numbers ever have.  Critical thinking is way the fuck out the window.

 

If the death count today, after all we've done to curb this virus, was 80k instead of 100k, we should have done something wildly different as a country? 

On the whole, given the set backs, primarily the CDCs inability to get testing out in the critical early days, we've handled this well, erring on the side of caution. The mistakes that are apparent with the benefit of hindsight, like entire states shutting down when it should have been county by county, could have been avoided with more complete numbers. 

I guess I'm asking for you to elaborate on your smart sounding drive by post.

[Iceman 2639]

I guess I'm still asking for statistics on incremental deaths in 2020 vs 2019 or a 5 year run rate also accounting for pop growth.

Yeah coronavirus, but what about the other categories?  The death rate for those who have contracted the virus is still vastly overstated because we don't know who has had it, even then, the rate continues to drop with increased testing.  The age and underlying conditions are still (conveniently) omitted from the general discussion.

 

But none of this is deliberate, right?  Just react to the SWAG method and call it good.

Edited May 29, 2020 by Iceman

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

15 hours ago, Dahobbs said:

I'm sure you don't mean it, but incentive suggests there is conscious choice. The more apt word would be pressure. 

I Imagine having Asian origins, there's a huge amount of pressure on Covid-19 from it's parents to be successful. 

[bschoolprof 6232]

Quote

COPENHAGEN (Reuters) - Sending children back to schools and day care centres in Denmark, the first country in Europe to do so, did not lead to an increase in coronavirus infections, according to official data, confirming similar findings from Finland on Thursday.

As countries across Europe make plans to exit months of lockdown aimed at curbing the virus outbreak, some parents worry that opening schools first might put the health of their children in danger.

Following a one-month lockdown, Denmark allowed children between two to 12 years back in day cares and schools on April 15. Based on five weeks’ worth of data, health authorities are now for the first time saying the move did not make the virus proliferate.

 

“You cannot see any negative effects from the reopening of schools,” Peter Andersen, doctor of infectious disease epidemiology and prevention at the Danish Serum Institute said on Thursday told Reuters.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark-reopening/reopening-schools-in-denmark-did-not-worsen-outbreak-data-shows-idUSKBN2341N7

[Brisketexan 104596]

1 hour ago, Iceman said:

The death rate for those who have contracted the virus is still vastly overstated because we don't know who has had it, even then, the rate continues to drop with increased testing.  The age and underlying conditions are still (conveniently) omitted from the general discussion.

For the love of fucking God, for the millionth fucking time, just because someone had a vulnerability doesn't mean that an acute illness didn't cause their death.  If they were alive, and reasonably expected to live for some period of time (a day, a month, a year, 3 years), and an illness came along that cut their lives short, then yes, that illness is the cause of death.

That's literally how deaths by cause have been counted and calculated forever.  It's why flu deaths are what they are.  People who may have had some underlying weakness had their lives cut short by the flu.  Same as with COVID.

And getting a precise death count from a novel viral illness with a complex suite of symptoms is absolutely impossible.  It is a 100% certainty that many people were killed by COVID who are NOT counted.  They died at home, they died of a peculiar set of symptoms quickly, they died before they could be diagnosed, etc.  And it's also a 100% certainty that any system that counts "presumed COVID deaths" is counting some deaths that actually weren't COVID, even though they looked like it.  By and large, there is no nefarious scheme in either direction -- to overcount or undercount.  We're trying to get the most accurate numbers we can with the apparatus and level of information that we have.

But a +/- 20% level of accuracy means that we're looking at a death toll between 80k and 120k.   Those numbers give us good information about the seriousness and severity of the disease.  That level of precision is sufficient for us to make some broad policy decisions.

[Dahobbs 17444]

2 hours ago, Iceman said:

I guess I'm still asking for statistics on incremental deaths in 2020 vs 2019 or a 5 year run rate also accounting for pop growth.

Yeah coronavirus, but what about the other categories?  The death rate for those who have contracted the virus is still vastly overstated because we don't know who has had it, even then, the rate continues to drop with increased testing.  The age and underlying conditions are still (conveniently) omitted from the general discussion.

 

But none of this is deliberate, right?  Just react to the SWAG method and call it good.

I've posted this several times before, the NCHS/CDC track excess deaths:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

There are some handy charts in there if you don't want to download the raw data. Since February 1, the US has had between 96,644 and 128,939 excess deaths compared to what we'd normally expect for this time of year. To give perspective, in an average year the US sees roughly  2.8 million deaths (2.75 in 2017, 2.84 in 2018, and 2.85 in 2019).  In 2019, the US had .975 million deaths through April. In 2020, we saw 1.064 million deaths in that same time period, a 10% increase in nationwide deaths.  Then numbers get more dramatic when you hone in on particular periods. In April of 2019, the typical week saw 55,000 deaths. In April of 2020, the typical week had 73,000 deaths, a 32% increase. In case you think I'm cherry picking, both April 2018 and 2017 weeks had 54,000 deaths.

In fact, over the last 3 years, the top 4 weekly death numbers all occurred in April of 2020 (77,759; 74,535; 71, 460; and 70,455). The next highest value is from January of 2018 (a really bad flu season), which saw 67,664 deaths. And these are nationwide numbers, which are diluted by the fact that the virus hasn't spread as much in many states (yet). If you look at just Michigan, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, or any of the other harder hit states, you'll see more dramatic increases.  

Edited May 29, 2020 by Dahobbs

[Brisketexan 104596]

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I've posted this several times before, the NCHS/CDC track excess deaths:

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

There are some handy charts in there if you don't want to download the raw data. Since February 1, the US has had between 96,644 and 128,939 excess deaths compared to what we'd normally expect for this time of year. To give perspective, in an average year the US sees roughly  2.8 million deaths (2.75 in 2017, 2.84 in 2018, and 2.85 in 2019).  In 2019, the US had .975 million deaths through April. In 2020, we saw 1.064 million deaths in that same time period, a 10% increase in nationwide deaths.  Then numbers get more dramatic when you hone in on particular periods. In April of 2019, the typical week saw 55,000 deaths. In April of 2020, the typical week had 73,000 deaths, a 32% increase. In case you think I'm cherry picking, both April 2018 and 2017 weeks had 54,000 deaths.

So, our current count (taking into account the margin for error) is 80k to 120k.  Using the excess death metrics, we have excess deaths of 96k to 128k.  Adjusting  that downward slightly for population growth, man....we're really in the right ballpark, aren't we?  We're not talking about 50k dead.  We're not talking about 200k dead.  The bullseye in the middle of both of those estimates puts us in the 100k-115k range.

[Dahobbs 17444]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

So, our current count (taking into account the margin for error) is 80k to 120k.  Using the excess death metrics, we have excess deaths of 96k to 128k.  Adjusting  that downward slightly for population growth, man....we're really in the right ballpark, aren't we?  We're not talking about 50k dead.  We're not talking about 200k dead.  The bullseye in the middle of both of those estimates puts us in the 100k-115k range.

Well, yeah, but consider that the excess death statistics are actually lagged by a few weeks (these rely on the review of death certificates). So, if anything, the number should actually being higher. 

[Brisketexan 104596]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Well, yeah, but consider that the excess death statistics are actually lagged by a few weeks (these rely on the review of death certificates). So, if anything, the number should actually being higher. 

I don't disagree with that.  Personally, knowing how chaotic the information gathering process has been, I don't doubt that we've missed thousands of COVID deaths.  But still, we're in the ballpark.

[bullzak 411]

15 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Supposedly 60% of people wearing a mask 60% of the time can get the R value under 1.  That could be huge. 

Also there's some people in the know who are pretty optimistic about the vaccines.  As in possibly to the masses early 2021 and to healthcare workers earlier.  That would be a fucking game changer...the likes of which I may not have ever seen in my life.  Stop the madness!

These very real possibilities to the upside are why people need to tap the brakes on the "everything is going to be different forever" mantra. Lot of recency bias going on there. 

I am finding that WFH is a luxury but it gets really old. Love my office and am ready to get back in there and commiserate with my colleagues. 

Hell, if Covid runs its course within a year I will do what I was doing before, but more of it. 

MOAR sporting events, bars, restaurants, concerts. We are social animals. 

Hope my liver is up for the challenge. 

[Dahobbs 17444]

More stats:

• Michigan: top 6 weekly death totals from the last 3 years all in Spring of 2020. A normal April averages ~1,900 weekly deaths. April 2020 saw 3,200 a week (68% increase).
• New York City: top 9 weekly death totals all in Spring of 2020. A normal April averages 1,000 weekly deaths. April 2020 = 5,900 weekly deaths.
• Pennsylvania: top 7 weekly deaths all from Spring of 2020. A normal April averages 2,600 weekly deaths. April 2020 =  3,904. 

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20343]

33 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Well, yeah, but consider that the excess death statistics are actually lagged by a few weeks (these rely on the review of death certificates). So, if anything, the number should actually being higher. 

 

Also, deaths by many other causes, like car accidents, are down.  So if overall mortality is up by, say, 100,000, you've got to factor in the fact that fewer people have died of things like car accidents, industrial accidents etc...
 

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20343]

Monkeys "escape with Covid-19 samples"  after attacking a lab assistant. One of the primates was reportedly later spotted up in a tree, chewing one of the sample collection kits.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-monkeys-escape-with-covid-19-samples-after-attacking-lab-assistant-11996752

We're all gonna die. 

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

[Dahobbs 17444]

26 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

More stats:

• Michigan: top 6 weekly death totals from the last 3 years all in Spring of 2020. A normal April averages ~1,900 weekly deaths. April 2020 saw 3,200 a week (68% increase).
• New York City: top 9 weekly death totals all in Spring of 2020. A normal April averages 1,000 weekly deaths. April 2020 = 5,900 weekly deaths.
• Pennsylvania: top 7 weekly deaths all from Spring of 2020. A normal April averages 2,600 weekly deaths. April 2020 =  3,904. 

• Delaware: top 6 weekly death totals from Spring of 2020. Normal April = 180 per week April 2020 = 213.
• Maryland: top 7 weekly death totals from Spring of 2020. Normal April = 970 per week. April 2020 = 1,356 per week. 
• Massachusetts: top 7 weekly death totals from Spring of 2020. Normal April = 1,170 per week. April 2020 = 2,135 per week. 
• Louisiana: top 6 weekly death totals from Spring of 2020. Normal April = 880 per week. April 2020 = 1,374 per week. 

Edited May 29, 2020 by Dahobbs

[MNLonghornFUKM 8799]

Monkeys "escape with Covid-19 samples"  after attacking a lab assistant. One of the primates was reportedly later spotted up in a tree, chewing one of the sample collection kits.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-monkeys-escape-with-covid-19-samples-after-attacking-lab-assistant-11996752

We're all gonna die. 

2020 in a nutshell

[South Austin 52143]

3 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Monkeys "escape with Covid-19 samples"  after attacking a lab assistant. One of the primates was reportedly later spotted up in a tree, chewing one of the sample collection kits.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-monkeys-escape-with-covid-19-samples-after-attacking-lab-assistant-11996752

We're all gonna die. 

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

2 hours ago, Iceman said:

I guess I'm still asking for statistics on incremental deaths in 2020 vs 2019 or a 5 year run rate also accounting for pop growth.

Yeah coronavirus, but what about the other categories?  The death rate for those who have contracted the virus is still vastly overstated because we don't know who has had it, even then, the rate continues to drop with increased testing.  The age and underlying conditions are still (conveniently) omitted from the general discussion.

 

But none of this is deliberate, right?  Just react to the SWAG method and call it good.

You are never considering what happens with no shut down.  Or did I miss it?  Not trying to flame you.  
 

The hard shutdown was necessary.  I agree some places opened too slow - the virus slows in summer.  Look at Latin America (fall/winter now).  
 

But where the hell was the tracing?  We didn’t even try.  Idgaf if you’re a commie pinko liberal or a far right nutjob, we should all agree that should have been much better for this country.  

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

• Delaware: top 6 weekly death totals from Spring of 2020. Normal April = 180 per week April 2020 = 213.
• Maryland: top 7 weekly death totals from Spring of 2020. Normal April = 970 per week. April 2020 = 1,356 per week. 
• Massachusetts: top 7 weekly death totals from Spring of 2020. Normal April = 1,170 per week. April 2020 = 2,135 per week. 
• Louisiana: top 6 weekly death totals from Spring of 2020. Normal April = 880 per week. April 2020 = 1,374 per week. 

These are with a shutdown.  It would have been an absolute bloodbath.  People with a certain narrative keep forgetting that.  

[Armybrat 40735]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

For the love of fucking God, for the millionth fucking time, just because someone had a vulnerability doesn't mean that an acute illness didn't cause their death.  If they were alive, and reasonably expected to live for some period of time (a day, a month, a year, 3 years), and an illness came along that cut their lives short, then yes, that illness is the cause of death.

That's literally how deaths by cause have been counted and calculated forever.  It's why flu deaths are what they are.  People who may have had some underlying weakness had their lives cut short by the flu.  Same as with COVID.

And getting a precise death count from a novel viral illness with a complex suite of symptoms is absolutely impossible.  It is a 100% certainty that many people were killed by COVID who are NOT counted.  They died at home, they died of a peculiar set of symptoms quickly, they died before they could be diagnosed, etc.  And it's also a 100% certainty that any system that counts "presumed COVID deaths" is counting some deaths that actually weren't COVID, even though they looked like it.  By and large, there is no nefarious scheme in either direction -- to overcount or undercount.  We're trying to get the most accurate numbers we can with the apparatus and level of information that we have.

But a +/- 20% level of accuracy means that we're looking at a death toll between 80k and 120k.   Those numbers give us good information about the seriousness and severity of the disease.  That level of precision is sufficient for us to make some broad policy decisions.

 

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

For the love of fucking God, for the millionth fucking time, just because someone had a vulnerability doesn't mean that an acute illness didn't cause their death.  If they were alive, and reasonably expected to live for some period of time (a day, a month, a year, 3 years), and an illness came along that cut their lives short, then yes, that illness is the cause of death.

That's literally how deaths by cause have been counted and calculated forever.  It's why flu deaths are what they are.  People who may have had some underlying weakness had their lives cut short by the flu.  Same as with COVID.

And getting a precise death count from a novel viral illness with a complex suite of symptoms is absolutely impossible.  It is a 100% certainty that many people were killed by COVID who are NOT counted.  They died at home, they died of a peculiar set of symptoms quickly, they died before they could be diagnosed, etc.  And it's also a 100% certainty that any system that counts "presumed COVID deaths" is counting some deaths that actually weren't COVID, even though they looked like it.  By and large, there is no nefarious scheme in either direction -- to overcount or undercount.  We're trying to get the most accurate numbers we can with the apparatus and level of information that we have.

But a +/- 20% level of accuracy means that we're looking at a death toll between 80k and 120k.   Those numbers give us good information about the seriousness and severity of the disease.  That level of precision is sufficient for us to make some broad policy decisions.

And that’s why my son’s FIL who died yesterday should be classified as CV19 death. Yeah, his failing kidneys were gonna kill him eventually, but no doubt the CV sped the process up.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20343]

4 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

These are with a shutdown.  It would have been an absolute bloodbath.  People with a certain narrative keep forgetting that.  

 

You never know what worse luck your bad luck saved you from.  --- Cormac McCarthy

[utee94 15745]

11 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

These are with a shutdown.  It would have been an absolute bloodbath.  People with a certain narrative keep forgetting that.  

Absolutely.

On the flipside though, there are others that have been so caught up in "OMG we didn't shut down hard enough, OMG the liquor stores are still open--WHY???, OMG did you see all the people in Walmat, OMG WE'RE STILL ALL GOING TO DIE."  All of this while there is clear evidence that the measures we DID take, obviously helped tremendously, and the hospitals for the vast majority of the country have not been overrun.   But people with a certain narrative keep forgetting THAT, too.

 

 

Edited May 29, 2020 by utee94

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

1 hour ago, utee94 said:

Absolutely.

On the flipside though, there are others that have been so caught up in "OMG we didn't shut down hard enough, OMG the liquor stores are still open--WHY???, OMG did you see all the people in Walmat, OMG WE'RE STILL ALL GOING TO DIE."  All of this while there is clear evidence that the measures we DID take, obviously helped tremendously, and the hospitals for the vast majority of the country have not been overrun.   But people with a certain narrative keep forgetting THAT, too.

 

 

I’m out boozing.  I’ve flown.  There’s ways to live life and not freak the fuck out.  All the people at hospitals crying is sad.  But we had physical therapists/CNA’s seeing hundreds of patients with shitty PPE.  MUCH worse than hospitals in nursing homes etc.   We donated thousands of masks etc.  They for the most part just put their head down and worked through it.  

Edited May 29, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[utee94 15745]

2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I’m out boozing.  I’ve flown.  There’s ways to live life and not freak the fuck out.  All the people at hospitals crying is sad.  But we had physical therapists/CNA’s seeing hundreds of patients with shitty PPE.  MUCH worse then hospitals in nursing homes etc.   We donated thousands of masks etc.  They for the most part just put their head down and worked through it.  

My wife's a PT, not in a hospital  but in outpatient orthopedics.  She's a manual physical therapist so there's no way for her to do her job and remain physically distanced.  They require masks but she's seeing 8-12 patients per day and is certainly a threat to our family, by far the largest we have since I work from home and the kids have been out of school since 3/13.  Today's actually their "last day" such as it is.

 

[ChiTownDoc 21098]

10 minutes ago, utee94 said:

My wife's a PT, not in a hospital  but in outpatient orthopedics.  She's a manual physical therapist so there's no way for her to do her job and remain physically distanced.  They require masks but she's seeing 8-12 patients per day and is certainly a threat to our family, by far the largest we have since I work from home and the kids have been out of school since 3/13.  Today's actually their "last day" such as it is.

 

That’s bad.  Imagine being therapists treating active C19 confirmed patients.  And being last in line for PPE.  Sucks but happens all over.  

[South Austin 52143]

15 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I’m out boozing.  I’ve flown.  There’s ways to live life and not freak the fuck out.  

I'm following your lead.  I know you're a Sooner and all, but you are a medical doctor.*

 

 

 

 

 

*I'm assuming you're a medical doctor just for the sake of feeling better about going out boozing myself.