Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

6 hours ago, SHOOTER12 said:

So AB is NOT the father?

Grandfather.

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

4 hours ago, Lobo said:

Yeah, but the point of Kraut & Mick are they are the two derogatory terms for people of German and Irish descent. 

You consider the Irish to be people?  And the preferred term is "bog jumper".

Spoiler

 

 

[dcar00 14,023]

1 hour ago, EuroHorn said:

For what’s it’s worth - the WHO (not buffalo Springfield)

KEY POINTS

• Government responses should focus on detecting and isolating infected people with symptoms, the World Health Organization said.
• Preliminary evidence from the earliest outbreaks indicated the virus could spread even if people didn’t have symptoms.
• But the WHO says that while asymptomatic spread can occur, it is “very rare.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html

 

ah ha!! now asymptomatic spread is rare. hmm I wonder why?

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

3 hours ago, Hate said:

I don’t think it’s an agenda. I think it’s curiosity as to why one city seems to be spiking more quickly or at a higher rates than others. With the opening up on a state and now country wide basis, I think most “agendas” are gone for now.

The numbers are still low enough, and given the size of some cities, it may not even be the entire city pulling the numbers up.  We maybe talking about a few events or areas where, for whatever reason it shot up.   What if you get a couple of super spreaders or something?  What if you had one of those stupid fucking pool parties or whatever?    Those events would be lost in the numbers for say NYC, but could pull Texas's numbers up.

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

3 hours ago, Iceman said:

We ain't shutting down again, Holmes.

No we aren't.  And that has the added benefit of making sure there was only one round of covid supplemental checks/bailouts/etc., for better or for worse.

[BradInATX 9,208]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The numbers are still low enough, and given the size of some cities, it may not even be the entire city pulling the numbers up.  We maybe talking about a few events or areas where, for whatever reason it shot up.   What if you get a couple of super spreaders or something?  What if you had one of those stupid fucking pool parties or whatever?    Those events would be lost in the numbers for say NYC, but could pull Texas's numbers up.

Yeah, I mean you had an entire city that is believed to have had a Covid blowup from one big giant super spreader event (Mardi Gras). It's tough to get a feel for because it almost appears to be a matter of luck as to when those super spreader events happen. Even knowing that some scenarios are much lower risk. Why did the WIsconsin anti-mask protests generate a bunch of cases but spring break and all of the pool parties in the Ozarks or whatever not? 

200 hospitalizations could be one CNA that bounces between nursing homes and infected a few of them. Or it could be 200 people from one of the protests. It would seem like understanding where the spikes come from would be important.

Edited June 8, 2020 by BradInATX

[atomheartbevo 89,362]

Austin is opening more pools.  Barton Springs and Deep Eddy are joining the list.

https://www.austintexas.gov/page/pools-splash-pads

Quote

No admission fees will be charged during modified COVID-19 operations, however pool capacities will be limited.  All patrons must be screened before entering any City of Austin Aquatic facility. 

Reservations are required at Barton Springs, Deep Eddy, Bartholomew, Walnut Creek, Garrison, Northwest, and Mabel Davis Pools. To make reservations, please visit www.austintexas.gov/parksonline. Reservations will be available for two (2)-hour blocks.

 

Quote

Reservations are not required for Big Stacy, Rosewood, Shipe, and Govalle Pools. These facilities will be cleared every two (2) hours for cleaning.  Patrons may get back in line to re-enter the pool after cleaning procedures are completed.

 

Edited June 8, 2020 by atomheartbevo

[Dahobbs 17,420]

28 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

ah ha!! now asymptomatic spread is rare. hmm I wonder why?

Because that is what the limited evidence indicates at this time? Or are you asking biologically why asymptomatic spread would be rare?

[justhookit 4,174]

10 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Because that is what the limited evidence indicates at this time? Or are you asking biologically why asymptomatic spread would be rare?

Yeah, not sure where he is going with that one. Maybe we will find out but wish we didn’t.

Edited June 8, 2020 by justhookit

[Cheeseweasel 26,437]

3 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

66.7,%... 

[clapclapclap 9,000]

 

 

 

Edited June 8, 2020 by clapclapclap

[ChiTownDoc 21,091]

As we look at the total positives and the total testing number we need to keep this in mind: The virus just isn't as strong in the summer.  Even though it's spreading (not as much) it's definitely weakened considerably.  We went in as a unit into a nursing home with over 130 positives when they did a facility wide test.  Less than 5% needed the hospital and their average age is over 80.  Over 70% have zero symptoms...not even a cough.  There's a real chance it keeps getting weaker and is nearly killed off by fall.  I thought a second wave was inevitable...I think there's actually some chance we don't see a second wave now - even though I wouldn't bet on that.  

There's still a TON we don't know.  An example...It seems not only do type O blood patients not get as sick...they are actually not getting the virus at all from what we have so far, data wise.  So is there a subset of people that are immune who aren't testing positive on AB testing?  My wife and I are both type O.  I have tested positive all 3x for antibodies.  She has tested negative twice.  Something is up there, imo. 

[aggie08 21,380]

Your wife might be a daywalker, bruh...

[Lurch 5,919]

For what’s it’s worth - the WHO (not buffalo Springfield)
KEY POINTS

• Government responses should focus on detecting and isolating infected people with symptoms, the World Health Organization said.
• Preliminary evidence from the earliest outbreaks indicated the virus could spread even if people didn’t have symptoms.
• But the WHO says that while asymptomatic spread can occur, it is “very rare.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/08/asymptomatic-coronavirus-patients-arent-spreading-new-infections-who-says.html
 

I thought this was great news, then Twitter kicked me in the junk again

Thread:

And thread:

[washparkhorn 9,931]

5 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Seriously.  The easy answers don't lend themselves.  Too early for protest related bump, inconsistent with what we are seeing in the other regions to be strictly related to re-opening. This is where the drill down capabilities @BradInATX and the rest of us are looking for would come in handy.

Here is a pretty good site for TSA Q: https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYjU5MzU4NjAtZWJjMC00MTllLTkwYjYtMzE4ODY1YjAyMGU2IiwidCI6ImI3MjgwODdjLTgwZTgtNGQzMS04YjZmLTdlMGUzYmUxMGUwOCIsImMiOjN9

Lots of different data points and visualizations at county level for the Q, H, and R (South East Texas).

  

re the ICU v. hospitalizations numbers - treatment has improved for hospitalized patients and has reduced the need for ICU beds/monitoring. 

As stated above, the numbers are noisy. Local conditions - from what distancing means in an urban jungle like NYC to how one entertains oneself at the Lake of the Ozarks v. San Diego. It is a mess. Economists are not having much better luck interpreting the data and looking for reliable data upon which to recommend policy. 

This MIT economists breaks down some of the noise and suggests hospitalizations may be a reliable indicator:

http://web.mit.edu/jeffrey/harris/HarrisJE_WP3_COVID19_WWF_6-May-2020.pdf

Quote

Abstract. We critically analyze the currently available status indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic so that state governors will have the guideposts necessary to decide whether to further loosen or instead retighten controls on social and economic activity.

Overreliance on aggregate, state-level data in Wisconsin, we find, confounds the effects of the spring primary elections and the outbreak among meat packers.

Relaxed testing standards in Los Angeles may have upwardly biased the observed trend in new infection rates.

Reanalysis of New Jersey data, based upon the date an ultimately fatal case first became ill rather than the date of death, reveals that deaths have already peaked in that state.

Evidence from Cook County, Illinois shows that trends in the percentage of positive tests can be wholly misleading.

Trends on emergency department visits for influenza-like illness, advocated by the White House Guidelines, are unlikely to be informative.

Data on hospital census counts in Orange County, California suggest that healthcare system-based indicators are likely to be more reliable and informative.

An analysis of cumulative infections in San Antonio, Texas, shows how mathematical models intended to guide decisions on relaxation of social distancing are severely limited by untested assumptions.

Universal coronavirus testing may not on its own solve difficult problems of data interpretation and causal inference.

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

As we look at the total positives and the total testing number we need to keep this in mind: The virus just isn't as strong in the summer.  Even though it's spreading (not as much) it's definitely weakened considerably.  We went in as a unit into a nursing home with over 130 positives when they did a facility wide test.  Less than 5% needed the hospital and their average age is over 80.  Over 70% have zero symptoms...not even a cough.  There's a real chance it keeps getting weaker and is nearly killed off by fall.  I thought a second wave was inevitable...I think there's actually some chance we don't see a second wave now - even though I wouldn't bet on that.  
There's still a TON we don't know.  An example...It seems not only do type O blood patients not get as sick...they are actually not getting the virus at all from what we have so far, data wise.  So is there a subset of people that are immune who aren't testing positive on AB testing?  My wife and I are both type O.  I have tested positive all 3x for antibodies.  She has tested negative twice.  Something is up there, imo. 

One thing i find crazy is the cases aren’t exactly dropping off in the US, probably 18-~25k a day.


And the world cases continue to climb.


But holy shit do the deaths not match up to how deadly this was back in early-mid April where we were pumping out 25-35k cases a day.


Is it possible we’re to the point where it’s burned through (most) LTC and nursing homes in the country and there’s not as many people to kill now vs 90 days ago?


World deaths are noticeably dropping off too.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

 

I thought this was great news, then Twitter kicked me in the junk again

 

Thread:

 

[/url]

 

And thread:

 

 

 

Tired of this stormy cloud tweeter. Fuck that guy

[UT_OB1 2,200]

2 hours ago, clapclapclap said:

 

 

 

Those people will all be dead in 2 weeks.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,073]

https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-data-suggests-coronavirus-hit-china-earlier-researchers/story?id=71123270

[Guest Lobo]

the protein folds in the strains on the West Coast and the East Coast are identical after all.  IS that bad or good?  AHHHHHH

[ChiTownDoc 21,091]

27 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

One thing i find crazy is the cases aren’t exactly dropping off in the US, probably 18-~25k a day.


And the world cases continue to climb.


But holy shit do the deaths not match up to how deadly this was back in early-mid April where we were pumping out 25-35k cases a day.


Is it possible we’re to the point where it’s burned through (most) LTC and nursing homes in the country and there’s not as many people to kill now vs 90 days ago?


World deaths are noticeably dropping off too.

Oh hell no...we cover nursing homes - they're parts of post acute networks for many of the countries largest hospital systems.  Long story short: a lot of skilled nursing places poor outcomes can cost hospitals money (even preCovid) so it's become a competitive space in value based medicine...anyways of the hundreds we cover only about 2 dozen have had the issue where it burns through the entire place.  Literally 90% that we cover (we probably do better ones - hospitals don't partner with shitty places if they can help it) have not had that type of big outbreak. 

But places that were having that big outbreak in Feb/Mar had dozens dying including even some staff...today a place will end up with 90% of their residents/patients positive but only a couple die and zero members of the staff need to be hospitalized...much less actually seeing any deaths among the staff.

[Onboard 2.0 9,083]

22 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-data-suggests-coronavirus-hit-china-earlier-researchers/story?id=71123270

Shut the front door !!

[EuroHorn 3,204]

22 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

https://abcnews.go.com/International/satellite-data-suggests-coronavirus-hit-china-earlier-researchers/story?id=71123270

I can believe it. I posted a study earlier in this thread that suggested that flu like illnesses in the US dramatically increased in November and December of last year. 

[ChiTownDoc 21,091]

1 hour ago, Lurch said:

 

I thought this was great news, then Twitter kicked me in the junk again

Thread:

 

 

 

 

And thread:

 

 

 

 

 

 

There's no way asymptomatic people spread as much as symptomatic people...now how big is the difference?  That's obviously the million dollar question.  We have a few doctors that tested positive for antibodies and work around a lot of old people.  Places went all of March with zero breakouts and precautions didn't start until midMarch around the vast majority of the country.  

[Iceman 2,628]

7 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

So here are my Cliff notes from the past few pages. Feel free to correct any misguided interpretations.

China- Still full of shit. Wasn't mentioned but should have been.

WHO- even more full of shit than before, which is an impressive capacity for shit fullness.

That tweeter moron is a negative Nancy and also full of shit

Economist - the methodology for gathering data is largely complete shit. To make it more fun, there are a lot of different shitty methods for gathering the data. The interpretations of the shitty data are even shittier and influenced by political or social issues. 

A Surly Poster not full of shit, to my knowledge: Things seem to be improving and most items he's reading are full of shit.

In summary, there is a lot of shit and very little knowledge.

In summation, let's levy public policy as a result of reading the shit...

[Lurch 5,919]

Counter point: let’s do nothing until everything is a known certainty. Don’t worry, we’ll also pray.

[B00M 6,278]

1 hour ago, EuroHorn said:

I can believe it. I posted a study earlier in this thread that suggested that flu like illnesses in the US dramatically increased in November and December of last year. 

Jibes pretty nicely with US Intel that wuhan lab cleared out in ~Oct

[ABSR 5,289]

10 hours ago, Anastasis said:

 

What has been so different about Houston during course of May compared to rest of the state?  It's interesting that they actually improved quite a bit during May, and then return to April levels.  The rest of the state basically peaked early may and then went flat. They peaked mid-april, dropped, and have returned to where they were in April.

 

I am not sure what is going on here, but clearly combining all regions is not appropriate and obfuscates our ability to visualize. 

Rodeo?

[ABSR 5,289]

4 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

As we look at the total positives and the total testing number we need to keep this in mind: The virus just isn't as strong in the summer.  Even though it's spreading (not as much) it's definitely weakened considerably.  We went in as a unit into a nursing home with over 130 positives when they did a facility wide test.  Less than 5% needed the hospital and their average age is over 80.  Over 70% have zero symptoms...not even a cough.  There's a real chance it keeps getting weaker and is nearly killed off by fall.  I thought a second wave was inevitable...I think there's actually some chance we don't see a second wave now - even though I wouldn't bet on that.  

There's still a TON we don't know.  An example...It seems not only do type O blood patients not get as sick...they are actually not getting the virus at all from what we have so far, data wise.  So is there a subset of people that are immune who aren't testing positive on AB testing?  My wife and I are both type O.  I have tested positive all 3x for antibodies.  She has tested negative twice.  Something is up there, imo. 

Is there a report or paper out about the blood type impact?

[ChiTownDoc 21,091]

Just now, ABSR said:

Is there a report or paper out about the blood type impact?

Yep. A lot.  Here’s one that came out today:

https://blog.23andme.com/23andme-research/23andme-finds-evidence-that-blood-type-plays-a-role-in-covid-19/

 

[Lurch 5,919]

9-20% less likely seems a far cry from not at all, no?

[ChiTownDoc 21,091]

8 minutes ago, Lurch said:

9-20% less likely seems a far cry from not at all, no?

Lol - I need to be more clear...I'm saying not only do type O get less sick when they get it...but the actual number of positives is less too.  So less sick when they get it and less overall testing positive.  NOT saying they don't get it at all.  I'm also saying a significant % may not be showing up at all on antibody tests at all even though they had it.  These numbers are a massive difference in medicine.  From what we all thought the whole world would have as C19 is a pandemic to 9-20% of a specific type of blood not getting it at all in areas where there's otherwise massive spread?  To us that's a pretty big deal.  

Edited June 9, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[Anastasis 23,375]

What is the potential mechanism for blood type as far as infectiousness and severity?

[ChiTownDoc 21,091]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

What is the potential mechanism for blood type as far as infectiousness and severity?

Check out the graphic in this article.  See why AB is most susceptible and O the least.  

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200603/Blood-group-type-may-affect-susceptibility-to-COVID-19-respiratory-failure.aspx

Edited June 9, 2020 by ChiTownDoc
Added pic but read of you have time.

[dcar00 14,023]

3 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

So here are my Cliff notes from the past few pages. Feel free to correct any misguided interpretations.

China- Still full of shit. Wasn't mentioned but should have been.

WHO- even more full of shit than before, which is an impressive capacity for shit fullness.

That tweeter moron is a negative Nancy and also full of shit

Economist - the methodology for gathering data is largely complete shit. To make it more fun, there are a lot of different shitty methods for gathering the data. The interpretations of the shitty data are even shittier and influenced by political or social issues. 

A Surly Poster not full of shit, to my knowledge: Things seem to be improving and most items he's reading are full of shit.

In summary, there is a lot of shit and very little knowledge.

I beg to differ there is a shitload of knowledge about shit.  that said, you have highlighted the shit well.

[dcar00 14,023]

3 hours ago, Lurch said:

Counter point: let’s do nothing until everything is a known certainty. Don’t worry, we’ll also pray.

whatever we do it must start with the phrase "if we can save just one life..."

[ChiTownDoc 21,091]

3 hours ago, BurntEyes said:

So here are my Cliff notes from the past few pages. Feel free to correct any misguided interpretations.

China- Still full of shit. Wasn't mentioned but should have been.

WHO- even more full of shit than before, which is an impressive capacity for shit fullness.

That tweeter moron is a negative Nancy and also full of shit

Economist - the methodology for gathering data is largely complete shit. To make it more fun, there are a lot of different shitty methods for gathering the data. The interpretations of the shitty data are even shittier and influenced by political or social issues. 

A Surly Poster not full of shit, to my knowledge: Things seem to be improving and most items he's reading are full of shit.

In summary, there is a lot of shit and very little knowledge.

Ha, I mean it’s not all bullshit out there...but you’re right, there’s a LOT of it to wade through.  

In fact you can see my posts back 2 months ago being more spot on than the WHO, on various items like asymptomatic spread/significance of blood type etc.  

It does make one wonder because I’m far from the caliber doc/scientist they have.  Part of it is luck, but some of it is definitely them fucking up.  

Edited June 9, 2020 by ChiTownDoc

[Anastasis 23,375]

The WHO is less competent than the most competent sooner we know. 

[ChiTownDoc 21,091]

1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

The WHO is less competent than the most competent sooner we know. 

That’s a massive upset.  

[Anastasis 23,375]

1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Check out the graphic in this article.  See why AB is most susceptible and O the least.  

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20200603/Blood-group-type-may-affect-susceptibility-to-COVID-19-respiratory-failure.aspx

Team AB. 

[Captainant 27,310]

19 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

The WHO is less competent than the most competent sooner we know. 

Next time we won't get fooled again

[MNLonghornFUKM 8,799]

So here are my Cliff notes from the past few pages. Feel free to correct any misguided interpretations.
China- Still full of shit. Wasn't mentioned but should have been.
WHO- even more full of shit than before, which is an impressive capacity for shit fullness.
That tweeter moron is a negative Nancy and also full of shit
Economist - the methodology for gathering data is largely complete shit. To make it more fun, there are a lot of different shitty methods for gathering the data. The interpretations of the shitty data are even shittier and influenced by political or social issues. 
A Surly Poster not full of shit, to my knowledge: Things seem to be improving and most items he's reading are full of shit.
In summary, there is a lot of shit and very little knowledge.

[InkaUtexas 25,424]

50 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Ha, I mean it’s not all bullshit out there...but you’re right, there’s a LOT of it to wade through.  

In fact you can see my posts back 2 months ago being more spot on than the WHO, on various items like asymptomatic spread/significance of blood type etc.  

It does make one wonder because I’m far from the caliber doc/scientist they have.  Part of it is luck, but some of it is definitely them fucking up.  

Glad you are here Doc. You always presented what you knew, did not shy away from calling out BS. Oh, fuck OU. 

[TexArcher 37,455]

45 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

The WHO is less competent than the most competent sooner we know. 

It's 12:27 and the WHO still sucks?

[RollLeft 5,039]

5 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Oh hell no...we cover nursing homes - they're parts of post acute networks for many of the countries largest hospital systems.  Long story short: a lot of skilled nursing places poor outcomes can cost hospitals money (even preCovid) so it's become a competitive space in value based medicine...anyways of the hundreds we cover only about 2 dozen have had the issue where it burns through the entire place.  Literally 90% that we cover (we probably do better ones - hospitals don't partner with shitty places if they can help it) have not had that type of big outbreak. 

But places that were having that big outbreak in Feb/Mar had dozens dying including even some staff...today a place will end up with 90% of their residents/patients positive but only a couple die and zero members of the staff need to be hospitalized...much less actually seeing any deaths among the staff.

This is fkn great news.

[washparkhorn 9,931]

6 hours ago, Iceman said:

In summation, let's levy public policy as a result of reading the shit...

Running an economy like ours is a delicate balancing act. It would be helpful to have some clarity from our public health experts. 

 

2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

The WHO is less competent than the most competent sooner we know. 

Institutional failure in regards to Covid-19. Resting on their laurels, perhaps. Textbook case of problems with a huge bureaucracy. They - along with many others - were slow and indecisive.. But they were built to contain these types of events quickly. They need better tools and perhaps a management change to modernize, 

[justhookit 4,174]

17 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

Back to this. Am I the only one who is bothered by the previous spike? It’s almost on the same incline and appears to start roughly a month after we all “stayed home”. It shouldn’t have. But it would definitely look that way if covid was just becoming an issue here in mid to late March.

i expect to see that chart hit about 2000 and it makes sense. If we don’t start leveling out there we’ve got a real problem.

 

[justhookit 4,174]

Also I looked at some of it and Harris County is definitely weird. So then I looked at Galveston and it’s spiking pretty good. I’m way too tired to recite the numbers. Just going by the beach thing opening, you’d expect to see a similar increase in Nueces County (which includes Port A). We are flat, I think, if you remove the meat packing cases. @Anastasis? Now the 2 problems with that are that it’s hard to separate Corpus from PA, and it wouldn’t account for anyone getting covid here and then taking it back home and testing positive there. Still sitting at 7 actual cases in PA, the last of which was about April 1st and they were all travel related to a case in Costa Rica. At some point with 100,000 people visiting here every weekend we should get a pretty clear picture here very soon.

edit - the reason why I think this is important. Port A is now in the top 3 searched tourist destinations in the U.S. We aren’t just going to be getting people coming in from San Antonio and Austin this summer.

Edited June 9, 2020 by justhookit

[UT_OB1 2,200]

3 hours ago, justhookit said:

Back to this. Am I the only one who is bothered by the previous spike? It’s almost on the same incline and appears to start roughly a month after we all “stayed home”. It shouldn’t have. But it would definitely look that way if covid was just becoming an issue here in mid to late March.

i expect to see that chart hit about 2000 and it makes sense. If we don’t start leveling out there we’ve got a real problem.

 

Yeah, I wonder what the “new analysis” really is. One of of her criteria when starting the reopening was hospitalizations and growth rate. Texas wouldn’t have reopened with that trend in April. Hell, if that data is real, we shouldn’t have ever closed because it did nothing.  

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,391]

Port A is in the top 3 searched tourist destinations? Come on. If it’s being searched it’s only because it made the news when crowds were at the beach. Few people are going to travel to Texas to visit port a. Hell I lived in Rockport, and it wasn’t worth driving 30 minutes to port a.