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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

InkaUtexas

By InkaUtexas
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Uncle Boobs
Uncle Boobs

Against my better judgment and several beers deep, I have taken you up on this, potentially ending my streak of totally worthless posts. I have done 3 and 7 day averages only on the Worldometer data. 

Brisketexan
Brisketexan

Daughter’s home. A little PTSD, we’re picking up Whataburger to help.

Coelenterate Fuccboi
Coelenterate Fuccboi

Just try and imagine GreenspointTexas being the person to intubate you as you fight for your life against COVID-19. You’re laying there gasping for air while he chastises you for all the things you li

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23480

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, gmr548 said:
18 minutes ago, stork642 said:
Can’t see it.  Does it say the increase is Covid patients?   My cousin, who had been waiting for a surgery since February, was finally able to have her surgery last week and is still in the hospital.  I’m guessing there are a ton of people in that same situation.  But it’s a good “look at me” headline.  Riots must be loosing some steam.  

I'm glad your cousin got the care she needs, I think we all know people in tgat boat. That said, Texas covid hospitalizations are up 36 percent since Memorial Day, per DHHS, which is what I assume the headline is referring to.

We've dissected it on one of the three threads, I do not recall which, but it appears that houston area hospitalizations are driving the numbers for the entire state. 

 

hospby-TSA0610.png

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, bolverk said:

*losing

You can read all about the rising Covid hospitalizations in Texas for free here if you're genuinely interested in being informed on the situation and not "just asking questions."

Number of Texans hospitalized with coronavirus hits all-time high as experts say cases are likely to continue increasing

He is angry about a headline that is a very basic statement of fact with zero editorializing, and believes it's politically driven for shock value. Do you think he's genuinely interested in being informed?

(I realize your post was rhetorical)

Edited by BradInATX
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Anastasis said:

We've dissected it on one of the three threads, I do not recall which, but it appears that houston area hospitalizations are driving the numbers for the entire state. 

 

hospby-TSA0610.png

 

Toss in a little bit of Dallas too.

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Tex Long

Tex Long 4410

Posted
Posted
On 6/9/2020 at 10:46 AM, dcar00 said:

such a disaster.  these "world" organizations are a shitshow.

I beg your fucking pardon? Punch'n'Judy shows have a longstanding tradition of shows with deep and meaningful shitless presentations.

 

 

 

 

Well, except for the explosive diarrhea.

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bullzak

bullzak 422

Posted
Posted

How numbers can be manipulated: Arizona has a spike in cases. People are throwing out numbers of hospitalizations which a lot of us think of as salient data. 

I would submit you need to dig deeper and find out are those people in there from a week ago or are these recent admissions:

Both of these things can be true but they can be interpreted completely differently, no?

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gmr548

gmr548 16590

Posted
Posted
We've dissected it on one of the three threads, I do not recall which, but it appears that houston area hospitalizations are driving the numbers for the entire state. 
 
hospby-TSA0610.png
Yeah I've seen it. Obviously the spike in Houston is odd and concerning if it continues. It's also odd to me that it's been so far below DFW. Is the DFW service area significantly larger than Houston's? The MSAs are comparable in size.
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23480

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, gmr548 said:
5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:
We've dissected it on one of the three threads, I do not recall which, but it appears that houston area hospitalizations are driving the numbers for the entire state. 
 
hospby-TSA0610.png

Yeah I've seen it. Obviously the spike in Houston is odd and concerning if it continues. It's also odd to me that it's been so far below DFW. Is the DFW service area significantly larger than Houston's? The MSAs are comparable in size.

Not sure what population looks like for these counties, but here is the TSA map.

 

554b3559-ab9d-4461-82e9-61b9ef17b4a4.jpg

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Horn Under a Bad Sign

Horn Under a Bad Sign 20463

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, bolverk said:

*losing

You can read all about the rising Covid hospitalizations in Texas for free here if you're genuinely interested in being informed on the situation and not "just asking questions."

Number of Texans hospitalized with coronavirus hits all-time high as experts say cases are likely to continue increasing

 

God bless the Texas Tribune. They are doing yeoman's work.

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gmr548

gmr548 16590

Posted
Posted
Not sure what population looks like for these counties, but here is the TSA map.
 
554b3559-ab9d-4461-82e9-61b9ef17b4a4.jpg
That explains it. That's probably 750k or so people in area R that live in the Houston MSA, mostly Galveston and Brazoria Counties. No such split for DFW. In fact I think it goes beyond the metro area.

You wouldn't expect Houston to be up near DFW in that case. If "all others," which also spikes a little bit, is driven by area R, that'd likely also be attributable to the Houston area.
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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, bullzak said:

How numbers can be manipulated: Arizona has a spike in cases. People are throwing out numbers of hospitalizations which a lot of us think of as salient data. 

I would submit you need to dig deeper and find out are those people in there from a week ago or are these recent admissions:

Both of these things can be true but they can be interpreted completely differently, no?

 

There's a lot wrong with both the original chart (the red one) and the Newman guy's interpretation/usage of it to draw his conclusion (the blue chart). It would take awhile to dig into it and I'm not going to mess with it, but suffice to say neither of those charts should be trusted in terms of any real conclusions.

The tail end of the red chart makes no sense - how do they go from 1,157 total in the hospital to ~500 over the course of three days? Then to about 100 the very next day? Something's grossly wrong with that, and those low numbers are what are driving the dropoff in the blue chart. Blue chart guy is using obviously bad data to come up with more obviously bad data. He's either stupid or has an agenda.

It's all fucked. The Texas data is much better than that, although it has plenty of issues of its own.

Edited by BradInATX
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Anastasis

Anastasis 23480

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

That explains it. That's probably 750k or so people in area R that live in the Houston MSA, mostly Galveston and Brazoria Counties. No such split for DFW. In fact I think it goes beyond the metro area.

You wouldn't expect Houston to be up near DFW in that case. If "all others," which also spikes a little bit, is driven by area R, that'd likely also be attributable to the Houston area.

FWIW, H & R are relatively flat, but if you combine H, Q, and R...to your point...the numbers are must more similar in magnitude.

 

hospby-TSAHQR0610.png

 

 

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Anastasis

Anastasis 23480

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

The tail end of the red chart makes no sense - how do they go from 1,157 total in the hospital to ~500 over the course of three days? Then to about 100 the very next day? Something's grossly wrong with that, and those low numbers are what are driving the dropoff in the blue chart.

 

The red chart is daily new cases, not cumulative hospitalizations. 

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Hate

Hate 20128

Posted
Posted

Houston likes to compete with Dallas at anything so it’s no surprise they have more new cases.

And I’d still like to see some breakdown per age group on this rise in hospitalizations. It will be more concerning if the age group is mostly made of people younger than 60.

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BradInATX

BradInATX 9208

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

The red chart is daily new cases, not cumulative hospitalizations. 

Yeah, I realized that afterwards. On the Arizona dashboard I found new hospitalizations by day.

But there's still something goofy with it. New hospitalizations by day dropped from consistently in the 40-50 range to 20 and lower for the past week. There's either a lag in the reporting or Arizona cured Covid and isn't telling the rest of us. So what blue chart guy is saying is a decline is just a lag in data. He's including the last day in that AZ data, where it says they had five cases total, in his rolling 7 day average, which is obviously bullshit. My point still stands, he's either stupid or disingenuous. Ignoring the point where there's obvious lag in the data (the last 5 or 6 days on the viz) It looks to me like Arizona is pretty flat. Maybe very slightly improving from their peak in late April/early May.

az.jpg

 

 

Edited by BradInATX
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ChickenSandwich

ChickenSandwich 9844

Posted
Posted

Update 6/10/20

May 1, 2020 - Beginning on May 1, 2020 (Friday), retail stores, restaurants, places of worship, movie theaters and malls will be allowed to operate at 25% capacity. The Travis County Fire Marshal's Office has provided a business reopening guidance.

Travis County Kung Flu Deaths - Cumulative total

3/27: 1 death

6/1:   93 deaths

6/2:   93 deaths

6/3:  93 deaths

6/4: 95 deaths

6/5: 97 deaths

6/8: 97 deaths

6/10: 99 deaths

Last 10 Days: +6

Travis County Health Care Stats: Current numbers

6/1:  Hp: - 97, ICU - 41, Vent - 21

6/2:  Hp - 97, ICU - 41, Vent - 21

6/3: Hp - 93, ICU - 41, Vent - 21

6/4: Hp - 91, ICU - 38, Vent - 20

6/5: Hp - 88, ICU - 37, Vent - 22

6/8: Hp - 87, ICU - 40, Vent - 25

6/10: Hp - 91, ICU - 36, Vent - 26

Last 10 Days: Hp: -6, ICU: -5,Vent: +5

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

US Death Total 6/3/20

Nursing Home/Extended Care Deaths: 56,388 (54.4%)

Remaining Population (all ages):           47,330

Total:                                                         103,718

Top 5: Highest State Death Totals:

NY: 24,348

NJ: 12,377

Mass: 7,408

Pennsylvania: 6,062

Illinois: 5,795

Dropped out Michigan: 5,491

Total: 54,056 (55.3% of total deaths)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1ETm51GayRjlnoaRVtUOWfkolEeAQZ-zPhXkCbVe4_ik/htmlview#gid=43566737

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stork642

stork642 4498

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bolverk said:

*losing

You can read all about the rising Covid hospitalizations in Texas for free here if you're genuinely interested in being informed on the situation and not "just asking questions."

Number of Texans hospitalized with coronavirus hits all-time high as experts say cases are likely to continue increasing

Ok. Interesting read.  I can’t help but always be a little suspicious of any headline because all media always benefits from bad news.  Those numbers will be interesting to keep an eye on.  I can definitely see Memorial Day having a unique effect on the numbers because of family gatherings.  I’m sure there were quite a few grandparents that said enough with this not seeing the relatives and were around people they normally aren’t around on a daily basis.  

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Hate

Hate 20128

Posted
Posted

^^^i know my family was like that for a Memorial Day. There were about 11 or 12 of us that got together at the family lake house that weekend. It’s been long enough now to know that none of had the ronas, so we are doing it again for 4th of July.

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heso

heso 2813

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, landman said:

Glad to see cancer and heart disease have been eradicated from the world.  Where do deaths from medical mistakes fit in?  Estimates of over 200k in the US die each year from them.

Such a misleading chart other than to show the growth of covid death rates aver time. Excluding covid all of those causes of death accounted for 7% of deaths last year. 

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Guest Lobo

Guest Lobo

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, heso said:

Texas looking to jump PA in total case count in the next day or two. PA 7 day moving average at 521 and falling. Texas at 1575 and climbing. Total cases at 81,346 and 79,340. 

cue the "Yeah, well...we're a bigger state with a longer winter of older people with homes that have more than two television sets...and other things of that nature."  

/dr. Mantooth 

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dcar00

dcar00 14317

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, gyroprotagonist said:

yeah, i know what a normal pool should be, but was wondering if the 'unpublished' target at waterparks was much higher.  Their combined chlorine is always sky high cause you can smell it from a mile a away.

yeah its probably higher.  the 5ppm is for a normal public pool.  i could see them being closer to 10ppm

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dcar00

dcar00 14317

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Hate said:

^^^i know my family was like that for a Memorial Day. There were about 11 or 12 of us that got together at the family lake house that weekend. It’s been long enough now to know that none of had the ronas, so we are doing it again for 4th of July.

remember, you could all be asymptotic or it could be rare...kind of a coin flip type of deal.

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Hate

Hate 20128

Posted
Posted
Are you calling Dallas bama? Cause Houston is infested with aggy. They can only be aggy in these analogies.

Dallas would be blow u. There are more sooners there than in Oklahoma. It’s something I will never ever understand. How can a Texan go to blow u?? They should lose their Texas citizenship if they do that.
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stork642

stork642 4498

Posted
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Nice.  It took 900 pages and 45,000 posts, but this thread finally turned into a Dallas-Houston pissing contest.

 

Well done, surly.

Well if Dallas Cowgirl fans would ever shut up about their championships.  How long has it been since they won one?  I’ll step out now.  

Edited by stork642
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gmr548

gmr548 16590

Posted
Posted

Dallas would be blow u. There are more sooners there than in Oklahoma. It’s something I will never ever understand. How can a Texan go to blow u?? They should lose their Texas citizenship if they do that.
This is true. At UT you could always tell who was from Dallas - the ones whose hatred for OU was as personal and deep rooted as the contempt people from everywhere else had for aggy.
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heso

heso 2813

Posted
Posted (edited)

That chart looks a bit different when you add in the heavy hitters. COVID still likely to bump suicide out of the top 15 with Brazil and India still ramping up. We won’t know for sure until a retrospective reallocates the unexpected bump in pneumonia and the unattributed slum deaths to covid, but I expect it ends up with an outside chance of cracking the top 10 for 2020.
2ae51802369fe9741a784f2c2cd7ca78.jpg

Edited by heso
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Eskimohorn

Eskimohorn 5642

Posted
Posted
^^^i know my family was like that for a Memorial Day. There were about 11 or 12 of us that got together at the family lake house that weekend. It’s been long enough now to know that none of had the ronas, so we are doing it again for 4th of July.

gambler’s fallacy
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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 25090

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, heso said:

That chart looks a bit different when you add in the heavy hitters. COVID still likely to bump suicide out of the top 15 with Brazil and India still ramping up. We won’t know for sure until a retrospective reallocates the unexpected bump in pneumonia and the unattributed slum deaths to covid, but I expect it ends up with an outside chance of cracking the top 10 for 2020.
2ae51802369fe9741a784f2c2cd7ca78.jpg

Sounds like the Longhorns

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0xdeadbeef

0xdeadbeef 1651

Posted
Posted

I'm not sure if it's a final update or an inter-day update, but the Austin MSA numbers page (  https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984 ) now has a New Cases entry for 6/10, and it's the 2nd highest behind only yesterday.

6/8 118 New cases

6/9 161 New cases

6/10 133 New cases

 

The previous high they list for any day was 88 on 6/1.

Hospitalization are holding stead, but that probably just lags the new cases.

 

I think this pop in numbers is just the fuel this thread needs to power on to 1000 pages.

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