Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[NeverMarryAStripper 21780]

So your thinking is that asymptomatic people that test positive are being hospitalized?

[utee94 15742]

32 minutes ago, 0xdeadbeef said:

I'm not sure if it's a final update or an inter-day update, but the Austin MSA numbers page (  https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984 ) now has a New Cases entry for 6/10, and it's the 2nd highest behind only yesterday.

6/8 118 New cases

6/9 161 New cases

6/10 133 New cases

 

The previous high they list for any day was 88 on 6/1.

Hospitalization are holding stead, but that probably just lags the new cases.

 

I think this pop in numbers is just the fuel this thread needs to power on to 1000 pages.

Would hospitalizations actually lag, though?  I can understand why testing reporting lags, there are multiple points of latency in the process.

But for hospitalization, it's a counting of actual patients in-house.  I could still see a day or two lag just because of input time in a hospital computer system, and then the time it takes to scrape the data for compilation/aggregation and final reporting.  But those issues exist for the testing, too, and the testing itself has a lag time of several days to get the results, on top of all that.

Anyway, maybe?  But I'm not so sure the above statement in red is true.

[utee94 15742]

I mean, I could actually see scenarios where hospitalizations LEAD the testing results associated with them, not lag them.  Someone doesn't go to the hospital unless they feel bad.  They might not have even been tested until they actually get to the hospital.  So they're admitted to the hospital with COVID-like symptoms, reported, and a couple days later their tests come back positive, and get added to the numbers.  But before they tested positive, were they already being reported as a COVID case at the hospital?

I suppose our surly docs could shed some light on that.

[B00M 6278]

34 minutes ago, stone oak said:

It's almost like increased testing capability is leading to more cases and hospitalizations overall.

 

Travis county hospitilizaions are not up per post 45002

[Johnny Sack 8397]

I think testing can increase hospitalizations.  Someone Two months ago feeling like shit but not tested because we lacked tests had the CV and just stays home and rides it out.  Add increased testing and that person now gets tested.  Symptoms plus diagnosis could be a hospitalization that two months ago wouldn’t have been one. 
 

deaths seem like we are doing very well in Texas. ICU capacity isn’t an issue yet.  

Edited June 10, 2020 by Johnny Sack

[DDD Dad 14167]

6 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

I think testing can increase hospitalizations.  Someone Two months ago feeling like shit but not tested because we lacked tests had the CV and just stays home and rides it out.  Add increased testing and that person now gets tested.  Symptoms plus diagnosis could be a hospitalization that two months ago wouldn’t have been one.  

Careful not to hurt yourself with those mental gymnastics.  You might pull a muscle reaching your desired conclusion.

Edited June 10, 2020 by DDD Dad

[MoJames 8240]

The increase in hospitalizations is not due to increase testing. You don't hospitalize someone for an positive COVID. You hospitalize someone because they are hypoxic.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

2 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

Careful not to hurt yourself with those mental gymnastics.  You might pull a muscle reaching your desired conclusion.

Good and thoughtful response from you.  As always.   

[DDD Dad 14167]

2 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

Good and thoughtful response from you.  As always.   

Thank you.

By the way I agree with you that so far we seem to be okay with both ICU capacity.  So far.

Edited June 10, 2020 by DDD Dad

[Pig Bellmont 8679]

1 hour ago, stone oak said:

It's almost like increased testing capability is leading to more cases and hospitalizations overall.

I’m sure this is all just about increase in testing too

[Guest Lobo]

Well yeah, I mean with the re-openings came more stores from which to buy tests.  My Bed Bath & Beyond 20% coupons have never proved more critical.  

[bullzak 411]

9 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I’m sure this is all just about increase in testing too

Maybe not entirely. % positive is evidently going down as we ramp testing across the country. 

Not happy about the case increases but we have to see more. AZ is supposedly combining antibody tests which makes no sense if we are trying to stay current. 

I think we can all agree the data aggregation is a huge mess. 

Some talk the increase is hopping the border from Mexico?

 

Edited June 10, 2020 by bullzak

[heso 2748]

38 minutes ago, Johnny Sack said:

deaths seem like we are doing very well in Texas. ICU capacity isn’t an issue yet.  

The death count is stands out in Texas, but also Cali and Florida to a lesser extent. The rate is so much lower than the other states with more than 60k cases. 

[0xdeadbeef 1622]

The official numbers are in for the Austin Metro area for today.   The New Cases sits at 133 as they had updated on the site earlier in the day, but the Hospitalizations are updated now as well.    For 6/10 - 104 hospitalizations, 44 ICU, 27 ventilators

The previous high for hospitalizations was 98 on a couple different days.  Not a significant increase but it is a new high.

 

 

[BradInATX 9208]

16 minutes ago, bullzak said:

Maybe not entirely. % positive is evidently going down as we ramp testing across the country. 

Not happy about the case increases but we have to see more. AZ is supposedly combining antibody tests which makes no sense if we are trying to stay current. 

I think we can all agree the data aggregation is a huge mess. 

Some talk the increase is hopping the border from Mexico?

 

 

That guy uses percentage of tests positive as his metric, which is really stupid. It's equally as useless as looking at total cases. Notice how the line and the bars are almost perfectly inversely correlated. An increase in tests is almost always going to lead to a lower positive percentage. That guy needs to cut his nonsense out too, just like the doomsdayers saying "CASES AT AN ALL TIME HIGH" need to cut it out. 

Eyes on the ball - hospitalizations and, to a lesser extent, deaths. 

[utee94 15742]

10 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

That guy uses percentage of tests positive as his metric, which is really stupid. It's equally as useless as looking at total cases. Notice how the line and the bars are almost perfectly inversely correlated. An increase in tests is almost always going to lead to a lower positive percentage. That guy needs to cut his nonsense out too, just like the doomsdayers saying "CASES AT AN ALL TIME HIGH" need to cut it out. 

Eyes on the ball - hospitalizations and, to a lesser extent, deaths. 

Right. Deaths will be a lagging indicator to hospitalizations/ICU for obvious reasons.  

A jump from 91 to 104 hospitalizations is pretty significant though, I think.  Not unexpected, since I expected all numbers to trend upward with reopening, but significant.

The next metric we should be tracking closely is % capacity in hospitals, % capacity in ICU, % capacity of ventilators.  Because the plan was always simply to avoid overwhelming the hospitals.  Stopping the virus itself was never going to be an option once it escaped China.

 

[Pig Bellmont 8679]

14 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

 

That guy uses percentage of tests positive as his metric, which is really stupid. It's equally as useless as looking at total cases. Notice how the line and the bars are almost perfectly inversely correlated. An increase in tests is almost always going to lead to a lower positive percentage. That guy needs to cut his nonsense out too, just like the doomsdayers saying "CASES AT AN ALL TIME HIGH" need to cut it out. 

Eyes on the ball - hospitalizations and, to a lesser extent, deaths. 

The rising number of positive cases in 21 states can help us prevent unnecessary hospitalizations and deaths if we are capable of identifying, isolating, and contacting those people that might have been infected by the people testing positive. We must use basic precautions like masks if we want to slow/stop a second wave. Failure by government to slow a second wave would be moronic just because there’s currently room in the hospitals. It’s a way to keep the economy open and not shut down again. 
 

or we can whistle past the graveyard and keep on with our magical thinking 

[Pig Bellmont 8679]

28 minutes ago, heso said:

The death count is stands out in Texas, but also Cali and Florida to a lesser extent. The rate is so much lower than the other states with more than 60k cases. 

And absolutely zero correlation to the rise in pneumonia deaths compared to prior years, I’m certain

[utee94 15742]

1 minute ago, Pig Bellmont said:

The rising number of positive cases in 21 states can help us prevent unnecessary hospitalizations and deaths if we are capable of identifying, isolating, and contacting those people that might have been infected by the people testing positive. We must use basic precautions like masks if we want to slow/stop a second wave. Failure by government to slow a second wave would be moronic just because there’s currently room in the hospitals. It’s a way to keep the economy open and not shut down again. 
 

or we can whistle past the graveyard and keep on with our magical thinking 

What magical thinking are you referring to?  Please be specific.

We are doing contact tracing.  They traced to me, called me up, let me know, so I went and got tested, and I tested negative.

The majority of people I encounter indoors in Austin are wearing masks.

Restaurants and bars and retail businesses are at limited capacity.

What else do you believe should happen, what specifically constitutes this magical thinking?

[Anastasis 23375]

6 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

We must use basic precautions like masks if we want to slow/stop a second wave.

Maybe also basic precautions like not gathering in groups measured by counts in the 10's of thousands. 

[BradInATX 9208]

15 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Right. Deaths will be a lagging indicator to hospitalizations/ICU for obvious reasons.  

A jump from 91 to 104 hospitalizations is pretty significant though, I think.  Not unexpected, since I expected all numbers to trend upward with reopening, but significant.

The next metric we should be tracking closely is % capacity in hospitals, % capacity in ICU, % capacity of ventilators.  Because the plan was always simply to avoid overwhelming the hospitals.  Stopping the virus itself was never going to be an option once it escaped China.

 

Agreed, and the jump is definitely worth keeping an eye on. While keeping in the back of our minds that data comes in somewhat inconsistently so weekly averages are more important than a daily spike. 

I brought this up on another thread (we have multiple productive C19 threads, who'd have ever guessed), but we had 24 new admits in Austin for Covid today, which is almost double our rolling average. That's startling, although I can't find historical daily admit data, so I can't tell if it's just a data dump or the like. However it did bump our 7 day average up to an all time high. According to the city guidelines hitting 20 new admits would bump us to level 4 and if we stay above 20 it could start to push our healthcare system.

Definitely some cause for concern. The next 4-5 days are going to be critical and telling.

Edited June 11, 2020 by BradInATX

[BradInATX 9208]

10 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

The rising number of positive cases in 21 states can help us prevent unnecessary hospitalizations and deaths if we are capable of identifying, isolating, and contacting those people that might have been infected by the people testing positive. We must use basic precautions like masks if we want to slow/stop a second wave. Failure by government to slow a second wave would be moronic just because there’s currently room in the hospitals. It’s a way to keep the economy open and not shut down again. 
 

or we can whistle past the graveyard and keep on with our magical thinking 

 

You sure you don't have me confused with someone else? I've been a "caution" guy all along. I'm just trying to look at the data and figure out what I can figure out. Rising cases doesn't mean anything without context. Our cases have been rising for weeks without a corresponding increase in hospitalizations or deaths, which makes the stat pretty meaningless. I am concerned about the rising hospitalizations as noted above, and think it could mean real trouble if it becomes a trend. 

Edited June 11, 2020 by BradInATX

[gmr548 16463]

The majority of people I encounter indoors in Austin are wearing masks.

It's a big country. Austin is on one of the extreme ends of the spectrum when it comes to mask use and general buy in when it comes to mitigation measures an's restrictions. Wilco does not look like Austin. Much of the Houston and DFW areas does not look like Austin. On and on.

[utee94 15742]

5 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

It's a big country. Austin is on one of the extreme ends of the spectrum when it comes to mask use and general buy in when it comes to mitigation measures an's restrictions. Wilco does not look like Austin. Much of the Houston and DFW areas does not look like Austin. On and on.

 

The context here is the increasing hospitalizations in Travis County.  The implication from Pig is that the government is at fault for not doing enough and having "magical thinking."  My response is that, in Travis County, that is not true.   I can't possibly speak for every location, I don't live there.  

 

And out of curiosity, do we have any hospitaliztion/ICU data and trends from Wilco?  To your point, it would certainly be interesting to see if there's any effects being realized, from their... "less stringent"... requirements and actions.

 

Edited June 11, 2020 by utee94

[ABSR 5289]

8 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Lots of younger folks in better shape at the riots.  Some spike will hit but not a massive one. Also, I maintain the virus is weaker in the summer.  

It is possible that this will actually help speed up herd immunity as it may spread more widely, but to those less susceptible to complications.

[utee94 15742]

http://www.wcchd.org/COVID-19/dashboard.php

OK I don't have any history, but currently on 6/10:

Hospitalized: 10

IC: 5

Vent: 4

Deaths Total: 29

I wish they showed past daily historical totals on their dashboard, I suppose I can start tracking from here on.

[gmr548 16463]

The context here is the increasing hospitalizations in Travis County.  The implication from Pig is that the government is at fault for not doing enough and having "magical thinking."  My response is that, in Travis County, that is not true.   I can't possibly speak for every location, I don't live there.  
 
And out of curiosity, do we have any hospitaliztion/ICU data and trends from Wilco?  To your point, it would certainly be interesting to see if there's any effects being realized, from their... "less stringent"... requirements and actions.
 

That wasn't clear given he was talking nationally ("21 states). Fair point locally. I think Austin's actually done a pretty good job and the data bares that out.

I am not sure re: Wilco-specific data. The APH dashboard we often reference here is the Austin MSA. Hospitalization data published by DHHS is regional as well.

[heso 2748]

29 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

The rising number of positive cases in 21 states can help us prevent unnecessary hospitalizations and deaths if we are capable of identifying, isolating, and contacting those people that might have been infected by the people testing positive. We must use basic precautions like masks if we want to slow/stop a second wave. Failure by government to slow a second wave would be moronic just because there’s currently room in the hospitals. It’s a way to keep the economy open and not shut down again. 
 

or we can whistle past the graveyard and keep on with our magical thinking 

The pushback on any effort to slow a second wave will be peak idiocracy in times where it can’t seem like that could peak any higher. The dumbs have already convinced themselves that the first round was an overreaction and this is really no big deal. 

Edited June 11, 2020 by heso

[utee94 15742]

7 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

That wasn't clear given he was talking nationally ("21 states).

That's fine, but does he actually KNOW that contact tracing and mask wearing are not occurring in all of those 21 states he's condemning, and railing about their "magical thinking?"  All I know for sure is my own locality.  I know they're doing contact tracing.  I know they're wearing masks.  I know they're limiting capacity in bars and restaurants and stores and I know they're prohibiting large gatherings-- except, of course, for the protests and riots, which there's really just no realistic way to prohibit.

I know for a fact those things are happening here, and I know the contact-tracing is a state-wide effort.  I can't speak for how well the capacity limitations are being enacted in other parts of the state, because I don't live there.  And I certainly can't speak to what governments are doing in those other 20 states.

But, neither can Pig, which makes his rant particularly useless on this thread.

Edited June 11, 2020 by utee94

[Johnny Sack 8397]

35 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

And absolutely zero correlation to the rise in pneumonia deaths compared to prior years, I’m certain

Pretty sure that Reddit post was very thoroughly debunked about like the antifa brick nonsense.  

[Johnny Sack 8397]

Everywhere I go in Houston I see masks indoors.  I wear one indoors.  Have since mid March. Where are you guys not seeing masks?

I was in Central Market yesterday.  Didn’t see one non masker.  Was in Pearsall last weekend.   Masks at the HEB were everywhere.  Beeville — masks.  Freer — masks.  Shit towns in Louisiana when fishing Calcasieu— masks.  
 

I’m actually proud of my fellow Texans.  Because from what I’ve seen most people indoors are masking up.   

[ChiTownDoc 21091]

23 minutes ago, ABSR said:

It is possible that this will actually help speed up herd immunity as it may spread more widely, but to those less susceptible to complications.

Oh it definitely is.  In my mind get herd immunity as quickly as you can and not overwhelm the hospitals.  

[El Diablo 4232]

Some hospitals need to step up to the plate and go yard on COVID. All COVID, all the time. Just like you've got groups that specialize in internal medicine etc... You got a COVID patient? Send 'em to us! They can send the patient and their by now COVID specialist doctors to the all COVID facility. Relocate the furloughed hospital employees to the cities where the COVID docs and nurses come from. THOSE hospitals get to re-open as COVID free zones, open for any other procedures. Just shuffle people and equipment around a bit. Pandemic ain't going away, need to make some real changes to the healthcare delivery systems for a while. 

$9.95. Please. 

[StruggleBus 3922]

So do we care about Covid again yet? 

[Bevo 13493]

2 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

 

I was in Central Market yesterday.  Didn’t see one non masker.  Was in Pearsall last weekend.   Masks at the HEB were everywhere.  Beeville — masks.  Freer — masks.  Shit towns in Louisiana when fishing Calcasieu— masks.  
 

I’m actually proud of my fellow Texans.  Because from what I’ve seen most people indoors are masking up.

Louisiana isn't in Texas.

[Lat22 3990]

So do we care about Covid again yet? 

The Houston media is trying. Texas has had A RECORD NUMBER OF HOSPITALIZATIONS !!!!!!!! for two days in a row. 2100 people. In a state of 30 million.

In other news, Dominique looks great in yellow.

[DDD Dad 14167]

Everywhere I go in Houston I see masks indoors.  I wear one indoors.  Have since mid March. Where are you guys not seeing masks?
I was in Central Market yesterday.  Didn’t see one non masker.  Was in Pearsall last weekend.   Masks at the HEB were everywhere.  Beeville — masks.  Freer — masks.  Shit towns in Louisiana when fishing Calcasieu— masks.  
 
I’m actually proud of my fellow Texans.  Because from what I’ve seen most people indoors are masking up.   

I was at Tejas BBQ in Tomball yesterday with my son. We were the only 2 wearing masks. Everyone stared at us like we were aliens.

[gmr548 16463]

12 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Louisiana isn't in Texas.

[dcar00 14023]

33 minutes ago, StruggleBus said:

So do we care about Covid again yet? 

yes we do.  things have calmed moving on to the next wave.  My thought though is if we can do 50K+t a protest or rioting in groups of 100's I don't see any reason we can't do football and concerts.

[StruggleBus 3922]

12 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

I was at Tejas BBQ in Tomball yesterday with my son. We were the only 2 wearing masks. Everyone stared at us like we were aliens.

Did you expect everyone to eat drink with a mask on?

[dcar00 14023]

28 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

I was at Tejas BBQ in Tomball yesterday with my son. We were the only 2 wearing masks. Everyone stared at us like we were aliens.

It wasn't the masks....

[DDD Dad 14167]

Did you expect everyone to eat drink with a mask on?

Staff too? People standing in line, not honoring any type of social distancing?

[Js1 85055]

Just now, DDD Dad said:

Staff too? People standing in line, not honoring any type of social distancing?

Ugh it’s too hard! 

[DDD Dad 14167]

It wasn't the masks....

It was probably because I was wearing a UT parents weekend shirt. I assume they were all Aggy.

It’s Tomball after all.

[UT_OB1 2200]

3 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

Everywhere I go in Houston I see masks indoors.  I wear one indoors.  Have since mid March. Where are you guys not seeing masks?

I was in Central Market yesterday.  Didn’t see one non masker.  Was in Pearsall last weekend.   Masks at the HEB were everywhere.  Beeville — masks.  Freer — masks.  Shit towns in Louisiana when fishing Calcasieu— masks.  
 

I’m actually proud of my fellow Texans.  Because from what I’ve seen most people indoors are masking up.   

Same experience here from my trips to HD, target, etc in Seabrook, Pasadena, and Galveston areas. 75% mask wearing. 

[MissingInAction 24765]

Grocerie prices are stupid. Paid $5 for a dozen eggs. 

[Lhorn 4884]

1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

Grocerie prices are stupid. Paid $5 for a dozen eggs. 

Faberge?  Go to Costco homie.  

[Buzzrock 14867]

“But she diagnosed me as positive any way,” Ahmann said, “because she said the false negative rates are so high.”


https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/false-negative-tests-may-cloud-picture-coronavirus-spread/64xUzywdp6HrFGjbClgLxO/

[Iceman 2628]

6 hours ago, MissingInAction said:

Grocerie prices are stupid. Paid $5 for a dozen eggs. 

I have not seen those prices in our market, nor heard of them being that high anywhere in Texas.  Most places are around $1.58 a dozen, or so; and then on up depending upon variety and size.

Beef prices are full retail, for sure, but there's been no problem with eggs.

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19073]

I was at Tejas BBQ in Tomball yesterday with my son. We were the only 2 wearing masks. Everyone stared at us like we were aliens.

Tomball =/ Houston