Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Anastasis 23375]

Just now, hayden_horn said:

i am not ignoring it. there can be multiple causes for the spike. protests will definitely have an effect. so was relaxing restrictions before lowering the curve. like i said, mid-may we started trending in the wrong direction, which is two weeks after may 1, when we began relaxing. now we are going to see more effects of mass gatherings, ie, the protests, as well as people all over abandoning simple steps such as face coverings and social distancing. crowded restaurant patios are probably another cause. 

we are headed in the wrong direction.

There was a slight uptrend, but it appeared manageable. Our hospitalization numbers were holding steady a month into reopening, and we had plenty of capacity.  If the new trend in cases that started June 8 continues, and crucially if the cases convert to hospitalizations, we could be in trouble. Frankly, we should hope that those numbers are being driven by transmission at mass gatherings, because if reopening is the primary driver we are fucked.  

[Guest Lobo]

Just now, LebongJames said:

We actually held very steady in May. It was the beginning of June that we saw the spike. Memorial Day and the protests are definitely creating the spike. 

As is reopening.  Cities that have had zero protest activity are also seeing the spike when they are in states that had more aggressive reopening policies.  But yeah, the biggest driver SO FAR has been Memorial Day gatherings.  We won't see the true brunt of protest spikes until this weekend/next week.  

[Anastasis 23375]

2 minutes ago, Foosters said:

This. So in a country of hundreds of millions with the majority of the population living in states that have opened things up without requiring masks or distancing, the blame falls on the shoulders of several hundred thousand protesters?

I think that we are primarily discussing Travis county numbers. In the grand scheme of things, Austin has been relatively good with mask wearing and distancing, and most of us are still heavily self-restricting. The time course suggests to me that this is less about the secular trend associated with reopening and more related to an acute burst associated with large gatherings. There does not appear to be a smooth curve, it turns suddenly and in the time frame that would be expected for the initial cases. 

[utee94 15742]

3 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I think that we are primarily discussing Travis county numbers. In the grand scheme of things, Austin has been relatively good with mask wearing and distancing, and most of us are still heavily self-restricting. The time course suggests to me that this is less about the secular trend associated with reopening and more related to an acute burst associated with large gatherings. There does not appear to be a smooth curve, it turns suddenly and in the time frame that would be expected for the initial cases. 

Yes.  And Memorial Day gatherings could certainly contribute as well.  But to think the burst of the past couple of days is related to general reopening starting on May 1, is a very long stretch.  The TravCo hospitalization numbers were actually trending down in the week prior to 6/8.

6/1 97

6/2 97

6/3 93

6/4 91

6/5 88

6/8 87

6/10 104

 

That doesn't look like an upward trend from reopening.  It looks like a large jump occurring two weeks after major mass gathering events.

 

 

 

[John Lawrence 244]

What we are not seeing is a major spike in Texas deaths.  In fact, we have not hit 40 daily deaths in Texas in 20 days.  Is it possible this virus is spreading more in Texas but is weaker so not killing as many?  Or is it not killing as many because we know how to treat it better?

 

 

[HoffaJimmy 316]

2 hours ago, South Austin said:

Next thing you'll tell us is that it's okay to buy salsa made in NEW YORK CITY!!!!

 

NEW YORK CITY??!!

[MissingInAction 24765]

7 hours ago, Iceman said:

I have not seen those prices in our market, nor heard of them being that high anywhere in Texas.  Most places are around $1.58 a dozen, or so; and then on up depending upon variety and size.

Beef prices are full retail, for sure, but there's been no problem with eggs.

Eggs at that price were most likely laid in a dump truck behind a costco.

[MissingInAction 24765]

8 minutes ago, John Lawrence said:

What we are not seeing is a major spike in Texas deaths.  In fact, we have not hit 40 daily deaths in Texas in 20 days.  Is it possible this virus is spreading more in Texas but is weaker so not killing as many?  Or is it not killing as many because we know how to treat it better?

 

 

You are so stupid that my eyes bleed when reading your posts.

[DonnyKerabatsos 86]

 

[BradInATX 9208]

We'll have a pretty good idea of what the growth is caused by in a week or two when we get the Travis County numbers by age and race. I guess if we're all going to argue in circles about what caused it, I'll throw my guess out. We'll see a slight uptick in black/white and younger cases which would point towards the protests, but we're also going to see an increase in hospitalizations which would signal some of it came from elsewhere (as most of the protesters are young and not fat). We'll end up somewhere in the realm of "it was a little bit of both". Then we can all argue some more.

Very few of the protest cases will be serious, although the risk of them spreading it back out to the community in the coming month or so is definitely a concern.

Edited June 11, 2020 by BradInATX

[babysdaddy 2711]

Have we had any information released by Travis/Harris/Dallas county that talks about where they think the cases originated from?  I know the Governor ordered nursing homes/etc. to be tested.  Seems it will be pretty easy to determine if a case originated from attending a protest or a pool party.

[utee94 15742]

11 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

We'll have a pretty good idea of what the growth is caused by in a week or two when we get the Travis County numbers by age and race. I guess if we're all going to argue in circles about what caused it, I'll throw my guess out. We'll see a slight uptick in black/white and younger cases which would point towards the protests, but we're also going to see an increase in hospitalizations which would signal some of it came from elsewhere (as most of the protesters are young and not fat). We'll end up somewhere in the realm of "it was a little bit of both". Then we can all argue some more.

Very few of the protest cases will be serious, although the risk of them spreading it back out to the community in the coming month or so is definitely a concern.

I see several fatties in the picture of the protest linked above, so there's plenty of prime COVID-infection real estate right there.  We'll be able to argue for months about it.  It'll be great!

 

[utee94 15742]

4 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

Have we had any information released by Travis/Harris/Dallas county that talks about where they think the cases originated from?  I know the Governor ordered nursing homes/etc. to be tested.  Seems it will be pretty easy to determine if a case originated from attending a protest or a pool party.

The contact tracing folks that contacted me knew exactly who and when and where I was exposed.  So they will have the data, but I have no idea whether or not it would ever be released.  Seems like that could get pretty... politically controversial... regardless of whether it was the protest or the pool party. 

 

[BradInATX 9208]

13 minutes ago, utee94 said:

The contact tracing folks that contacted me knew exactly who and when and where I was exposed.  So they will have the data, but I have no idea whether or not it would ever be released.  Seems like that could get pretty... politically controversial... regardless of whether it was the protest or the pool party. 

 

I probably should have said "old fat people" in the post you quoted 2 posts up, because even young fat people don't really get killed by the Rona. 

To this comment above, you're probably right, and that's a shame. It sure would be nice to have that contact tracing data compiled into some basic information for the public as to which activities have proven to be high-spread, and which are relatively safe. It's unfortunate that the politicized environment we live in is probably preventing the release of information that would allow people and families to make good decisions for both their mental and physical health. Like you said in a way, I don't care whether it's the protest or pool party or both, but it sure would be nice to know that we can (or can't) safely have pool parties.
 

Pretty crazy that the folks who called knew where you were exposed and by who. Didn't know they were getting that detailed. Good to know, I suppose.

Edited June 11, 2020 by BradInATX

[dcar00 14023]

3 hours ago, Captainant said:

Well, we started with "this will all go away like a miracle" and assurances that warm weather would put a lid on things, which is what our state decision making has been predicated on. Doesn't seem wise to continue the opening plan as scheduled when cases are at best sitting at an all time high, and at worst growing again. 

POLITICS OMG POLITICS!!!

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

I'm so glad I use the block feature...

[dcar00 14023]

17 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I see several fatties in the picture of the protest linked above, so there's plenty of prime COVID-infection real estate right there.  We'll be able to argue for months about it.  It'll be great!

 

This and Fauci and the surgeon general said that african american people are disproportionately more affected by covid.

[BradInATX 9208]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

I'm so glad I use the block feature...

It's definitely a good way to avoid uncomfortable conversations where you're asked to do difficult things like be intellectually honest or produce facts to support your arguments.

Edited June 11, 2020 by BradInATX

[Scary Stranger 1712]

[Trey3216 15325]

2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

We went for almost a week without the constant politicization of this thread. Oh well.

It helps when the media demonizes people for protesting a shutdown and glorifies 50x that many people protesting other things.  
 

I don’t have a problem with either, but I hate disingenuous bullshit 

[Trey3216 15325]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

I don't think that you can ignore the substantial change in trajectory on June 8.  That is squarely within the timeframe for transmission from the mass gatherings that started in late May. If those new cases do not reflect the impacts of the massive protests, prepare your angus cause things could get really bad really quick. 

Yep.  And a lot of those mass protests began in late may as well.  It’s a combination of Memorial Day, reopening and protests.  

[BradInATX 9208]

2 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It helps when the media demonizes people for protesting a shutdown and glorifies 50x that many people protesting other things.  
 

I don’t have a problem with either, but I hate disingenuous bullshit 

I mean, I don't disagree, but there's media that does the exact opposite of what you said above too. I don't watch any of that shit. CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, it's all brain rot garbage.

[Trey3216 15325]

2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

I mean, I don't disagree, but there's media that does the exact opposite of what you said above too. I don't watch any of that shit. CNN, MSNBC, FOX News, it's all brain rot garbage.

No doubt. 

[Hate 20102]

I'm so glad I use the block feature...

I put my first poster ever on ignore this week. I could no longer take his utter and complete cuntiness.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

So is the pissing match on the last few pages about whether cases, hospitalizations, and percent positives are up, or why they’re up?

Because JH at least says the answer to the first one is clearly a solid yes.  Here’s what the JH COVID bulletin said yesterday:

Texas reported record numbers for COVID-19 hospitalizations this week, as efforts continue to relax social distancing. In addition to elevated daily incidence, Texas reported 5 of its 6 highest daily totals for COVID-19 hospitalizations over the past 5 days, including its first day with more than 2,000 hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Texas’ test positivity is also increasing, up from a low of 4.27% on May 26 to 7.55% on June 6 (currently 6.66%). 
 

As for why-because people.  
 

 

Found the link:

https://myemail.constantcontact.com/COVID-19-Updates---June-10.html?soid=1107826135286&aid=9EjNcGSmruU

Edited June 11, 2020 by Liquor and Poker

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

Harris County doctor said just now that the hospitalized patient average age is dropping and that the increase dates back to about May 25.  

[elfenix 34167]

Harris County doctor said just now that the hospitalized patient average age is dropping and that the increase dates back to about May 25.  

Station?

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

Just now, elfenix said:

12 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

Harris County doctor said just now that the hospitalized patient average age is dropping and that the increase dates back to about May 25.  

Station?

13. 
 

Hidalgo just said “the state just opened up too soon.”

Turner then said “let’s talk about the mechanics - all this good stuff in March and April-the judge and I had the ability to hit the brakes. We don’t have that ability anymore.  That’s all controlled by the state.”

So those gloves are off. 

[InkaUtexas 25423]

Going to get fun folks. Do you really need to go play billiards right now? Do you need to float the river? Is wearing a mask that hard to do? 

Fuck it, we deserve what we get.

 

[John Lawrence 244]

2 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Going to get fun folks. Do you really need to go play billiards right now? Do you need to float the river? Is wearing a mask that hard to do? 

Fuck it, we deserve what we get.

 

Is that supposed to look that bad?  Because it does not to me.

[InkaUtexas 25423]

1 minute ago, John Lawrence said:

Is that supposed to look that bad?  Because it does not to me.

OK, Cool. Hook em. 

[Tex Long 4326]

18 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

So do we care about Covid again yet? 

Whaddaya mean, "again"?

[ChickenSandwich 9797]

Update 6/10/20

May 1, 2020 - Beginning on May 1, 2020 (Friday), retail stores, restaurants, places of worship, movie theaters and malls will be allowed to operate at 25% capacity. The Travis County Fire Marshal's Office has provided a business reopening guidance.

Travis County Kung Flu Deaths - Cumulative total

3/27: 1 death

6/2: 93 deaths

6/3: 93 deaths

6/4: 95 deaths

6/5: 97 deaths

6/8: 97 deaths

6/10: 99 deaths

6/11: 99 deaths

Last 10 Days: +6

Travis County Health Care Stats: Current numbers

6/2:  Hp - 97, ICU - 41, Vent - 21

6/3: Hp - 93, ICU - 41, Vent - 21

6/4: Hp - 91, ICU - 38, Vent - 20

6/5: Hp - 88, ICU - 37, Vent - 22

6/8: Hp - 87, ICU - 40, Vent - 25

6/10: Hp - 91, ICU - 36, Vent - 26

6/11: HP - 104, ICU - 44, Vent - 27

Last 10 Days: Hp: +7, ICU: +3,Vent: +6

Ten Day Average HP (rolling): 82.7 (6/6,6/7 used 88 so not 100% accurate)

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

US Death Total 6/11/20

Nursing Home/Extended Care Deaths: 57,255 (54.6%)

Remaining Population (all ages):           47,598

Total:                                                         104,853

Top 5: Highest State Death Totals:

NY: 24,404

NJ: 12,443

Mass: 7,492

Pennsylvania: 6,113

Illinois: 5,795

Dropped out Michigan: 5,491

Total: 56,247 (53.6% of total deaths)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1ETm51GayRjlnoaRVtUOWfkolEeAQZ-zPhXkCbVe4_ik/htmlview#gid=43566737

[South Austin 52037]

1 hour ago, Hate said:

I put my first poster ever on ignore this week. I could no longer take his utter and complete cuntiness.

Hey, Hate.  Hate.  HATE!  HAAAAAAAATE!!!!!!!!!  ANSWER ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Buzzrock 14867]

Georgia opening up more:


Gov. Kemp lifts more COVID-19 restrictions for restaurants, conventions and concert venues https://www.wsbtv.com/news/local/gov-kemp-lifts-more-covid-19-restrictions-restaurants-conventions-concert-venues/VQO5YOFJPRFDZPSPEK5POWPQDA

[bolverk 29359]

At this afternoon's press conference for Austin/Travis County, they said they are likely going to have to extend stay-at-home orders and mask orders past June 15th.

Also, of troublesome note, since y'all have been debating it this afternoon:

Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott said that this surge is not yet out of control, but will take a community effort to keep it from getting out of hand. Escott said no cases of COVID-19 have been traced back to the recent protests in the city yet.

If that's the case, we should probably expect a bigger wave/spike at the hospitals when those who get really sick start coming in. Hopefully, the general health and youth of the protestors will avoid that. But as we all know, there's a decent chance they could spread it to others.

[huge 3788]

Anecdotally, hiring has started to happen again a little this week in my space in Houston.  So there is some positive to the additional cases.

[utee94 15742]

I found history on WilCo, so here are the hospitalization numbers.  The HSP number is total so it includes the ICU number.

5/12: 11 HSP, 6 ICU

5/13: 13 HSP, 6 ICU

5/14: 13 HSP, 6 ICU

5/15: 12 HSP, 5 ICU

5/16: 12 HSP, 5 ICU

5/17: 16 HSP, 5 ICU

5/18: 17 HSP, 5 ICU

5/19: 16 HSP, 4 ICU

5/20: 16 HSP, 4 ICU

5/21: 14 HSP, 4 ICU

5/22: 11 HSP, 4 ICU

5/23: 12 HSP, 4 ICU

5/24: 12 HSP, 6 ICU

5/25: 12 HSP, 7 ICU

5/26: 14 HSP, 7 ICU

5/27: 15 HSP, 7 ICU

5/28: 13 HSP, 6 ICU

5/29: 12 HSP, 5 ICU

5/30: 9 HSP, 5 ICU

5/31: 9 HSP, 4 ICU

6/1: 10 HSP, 5 ICU

6/2: 10 HSP, 4 ICU

6/3: 10 HSP, 4 ICU

6/4: 11 HSP, 4 ICU

6/5: 8 HSP, 4 ICU

6/6: 6 HSP, 4 ICU

6/7: 7 HSP 5 ICU

6/8: 7 HSP, 5 ICU

6/9: 8 HSP, 5 ICU

6/10: 10 HSP, 5 ICU, 4 VENT

6/11: 10 HSP, 5 ICU, 4 VENT

So the peak was on 5/18, it dropped off pretty significantly to the lowest I could find on 6/6, and is climbing back up a bit since then.

http://www.wcchd.org/COVID-19/dashboard.php

 

Edited June 11, 2020 by utee94

[utee94 15742]

On the Wilco website, there's also a chart that tracks infection rates per 100K residents for Williamson, Travis, and Bell counties.  The Travis County numbers are significantly higher than Williamson county numbers, but I take all statistics associated with testing, with a grain of salt. 

[Texas Jeff 1932]

1 hour ago, John Lawrence said:

Is that supposed to look that bad?  Because it does not to me.

The left axis is logarithmic, which is making the top line look basically flat.

[South Austin 52037]

34 minutes ago, bolverk said:

At this afternoon's press conference for Austin/Travis County, they said they are likely going to have to extend stay-at-home orders and mask orders past June 15th.

Why?  People are all over Austin restaurants and retail stores without face masks, folks are still protesting without social distancing, graduation parties are continuing, more workplaces are opening -- all this with nobody enforcing the stay-at-home orders and masking directives.  What good does extending those restrictions do? 

[hayden_horn 11360]

1 hour ago, John Lawrence said:

Is that supposed to look that bad?  Because it does not to me.

 

6 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

The left axis is logarithmic, which is making the top line look basically flat.

yeah, look at the spacing between 1, 100, 1,000, and 10,000. as jeff says, it's a logarithmic axis.

[bolverk 29359]

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

Why?  People are all over Austin restaurants and retail stores without face masks, folks are still protesting without social distancing, graduation parties are continuing, more workplaces are opening -- all this with nobody enforcing the stay-at-home orders and masking directives.  What good does extending those restrictions do? 

At this point, using the word "order" probably isn't the correct verbiage since the governor has with dubious constitutional authority declared them unenforceable, so maybe they should just be considered "guidelines."

As to the "why?", it's pretty well explained that they're trying to keep the new hospital admissions below 20 per day.

[elfenix 34167]

just heard on a pod that the two haircutters in misery with symptomatic corona exposed 140 people but didn't infect anyone, likely because they all wore masks.  wear a mask!

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

6 minutes ago, elfenix said:

just heard on a pod that the two haircutters in misery with symptomatic corona exposed 140 people but didn't infect anyone, likely because they all wore masks.  wear a mask!

Mask is a political symbol though.  Don’t want people to think I am in the wrong ideological group.  
 

 

[Pato del Muerto 52321]

2 hours ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep.  And a lot of those mass protests began in late may as well.  It’s a combination of Memorial Day, reopening and protests.  

We sure are an intelligent lot, us Americans. 

[XYZ 2154]

It’s too fucking hard for Americans to wear face masks, apparently.

[Pato del Muerto 52321]

1 hour ago, John Lawrence said:

Is that supposed to look that bad?  Because it does not to me.

It’s logarithmic to get the top line in the same area as the bottom two, which also flattens the curves. 

Edited June 11, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[Js1 85056]

8 minutes ago, XYZ said:

It’s too fucking hard for Americans to wear face masks, apparently.

MUH RIGHTS

[South Austin 52037]

11 minutes ago, bolverk said:

As to the "why?", it's pretty well explained that they're trying to keep the new hospital admissions below 20 per day.

I get that.  But extending a prohibition against out-of-household social gatherings indoors or outdoors of groups of any number, even groups of less than 10, for another several more weeks by the force of a municipal order -- even if its validity is debatable with an argument that it's overridden by the Governor's order -- is going to further beat down so many folks -- who are by and large acting responsibly during this pandemic -- dying for some real life social interaction.