Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Anastasis 23721]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

At this afternoon's press conference for Austin/Travis County, they said they are likely going to have to extend stay-at-home orders and mask orders past June 15th.

Also, of troublesome note, since y'all have been debating it this afternoon:

Interim Health Authority Dr. Mark Escott said that this surge is not yet out of control, but will take a community effort to keep it from getting out of hand. Escott said no cases of COVID-19 have been traced back to the recent protests in the city yet.

If that's the case, we should probably expect a bigger wave/spike at the hospitals when those who get really sick start coming in. Hopefully, the general health and youth of the protestors will avoid that. But as we all know, there's a decent chance they could spread it to others.

Did they say how many of the 600 or so cases over the last 4 days they had completed tracing?

[bolverk 30332]

9 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Did they say how many of the 600 or so cases over the last 4 days they had completed tracing?

You've got the same link I do. No idea. This was just one of the recommended articles that was in my Google News feed, so I got caught up with the threads and posted because I saw the debates going on.

As to my personal opinion, I'd agree with you that we should be entering the timeframe for when cases would start registering and conceivably within the same for sick patients to be hospitalized for illness after a stint at home.

[Anastasis 23721]

1 minute ago, bolverk said:

You've got the same link I do. No idea. This was just one of the recommended articles that was in my Google News feed, so I got caught up with the threads and posted because I saw the debates going on.

As to my personal opinion, I'd agree with you that we should be entering the timeframe for when cases would start registering and conceivably within the same for sick patients to be hospitalized for illness after a stint at home.

It was a sincere question. I am actually curious how quickly they can process traces. Anyone know somebody at APH?

[bolverk 30332]

22 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I get that.  But extending a prohibition against out-of-household social gatherings indoors or outdoors of groups of any number, even groups of less than 10, for another several more weeks by the force of a municipal order -- even if its validity is debatable with an argument that it's overridden by the Governor's order -- is going to further beat down so many folks -- who are by and large acting responsibly during this pandemic -- dying for some real life social interaction.

I get that, and I'm tired of being at home too since I've been living/working alone with only my daughter's cat for company (dog died last fall), which really sucks. At the same time, I personally have had some severe respiratory issues the past few years (chronic bronchitis and pneumonia) so I want to fuck around with this thing.

Lastly, I'm absolutely not the one advocating for you to stay home. You do you. I'm fortunate enough to have a job where I can work from home and have my groceries delivered indefinitely. I just posted the news story for informational purposes only and to bring an answer to this afternoon's debate topic regarding the protestors showing up yet.

[BradInATX 9208]

Maybe @utee94 can add some insight to that question in terms of how long it took them to contact him after he was exposed. You'd figure they'd make those calls almost right away once they trace the individual who exposed people, right?

[bolverk 30332]

6 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

It was a sincere question. I am actually curious how quickly they can process traces. Anyone know somebody at APH?

No worries. I took it as a serious question -- sorry if my tone didn't come off as such.

[BradInATX 9208]

On another note, I was all set to send our son back to day care Monday after next for a much needed return to normal working hours and sanity. Now we've got this upward movement in numbers, and a good friend of mine just forwarded a message from his kid's day care (who has stayed open the whole time) that a teacher there tested positive. Not helpful.

[bolverk 30332]

1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

Maybe @utee94 can add some insight to that question in terms of how long it took them to contact him after he was exposed. You'd figure they'd make those calls almost right away once they trace the individual who exposed people, right?

@Brisketexanhad mentioned he and his family were going to get tested after attending a march this past Sunday (I believe) and might also be able to offer some insight.

[Dbeasy 15596]

Is that supposed to look that bad?  Because it does not to me.

[Trey3216 15452]

34 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Did they say how many of the 600 or so cases over the last 4 days they had completed tracing?

Don’t worry, Trace Force has all the boys down at the lab, they’re working in shifts.   

[Iceman 2978]

you people who refuse to embrace the fear and panic need to get the fuck with the program.

 

 

LOlz.

[DDD Dad 14653]

4 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

Have we had any information released by Travis/Harris/Dallas county that talks about where they think the cases originated from?  I know the Governor ordered nursing homes/etc. to be tested.  Seems it will be pretty easy to determine if a case originated from attending a protest or a pool party.

All they need to do is check the contract tracing records.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wait...never mind.

[BradInATX 9208]

I think for contact tracing you just dial *69

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

Why?  People are all over Austin restaurants and retail stores without face masks, folks are still protesting without social distancing, graduation parties are continuing, more workplaces are opening -- all this with nobody enforcing the stay-at-home orders and masking directives.  What good does extending those restrictions do? 

I’m not in Austin. They’re not enforcing the orders?

[DDD Dad 14653]

7 hours ago, South Austin said:

This is my go-to source: 

Link

This one is much better.

Link

[BradInATX 9208]

Here's an article posted today with a bit of new Austin info. There's definitely some political bait in there but some interesting bits if you wade through it:

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200611/austin-officials-fear-2nd-wave-as-new-coronavirus-cases-jump

 

Cliff's:

- Cases climbing, but they don't believe it's because of increased tests, because the positive test percentage is up too.

- City health officials don't believe we're seeing anything from the protests yet, but they don't go into why (which makes me skeptical, I'd like them to explain how they came to believe that). 

- But they believe we probably will see an increase.

- Early returns show that this spike in cases is heavy in the Hispanic community. 

 

The Hispanic thing makes sense if you look at the zip code heatmap too. And there was a good discussion a couple days back about blue collar labor types catching it, which would hit that community hard.

[GRHorn 105]

56 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I get that.  But extending a prohibition against out-of-household social gatherings indoors or outdoors of groups of any number, even groups of less than 10, for another several more weeks by the force of a municipal order -- even if its validity is debatable with an argument that it's overridden by the Governor's order -- is going to further beat down so many folks -- who are by and large acting responsibly during this pandemic -- dying for some real life social interaction.

Especially when people at home have seen several days of gatherings on Tv that were widely encouraged. Political impetus of the protests put aside, the message of the necessity of the restrictions is now tainted, perhaps irreparably. 

[Armybrat 41412]

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

At this point, using the word "order" probably isn't the correct verbiage since the governor has with dubious constitutional authority declared them unenforceable, so maybe they should just be considered "guidelines."

As to the "why?", it's pretty well explained that they're trying to keep the new hospital admissions below 20 per day.

I nominate that for best meme effort.

[justhookit 4206]

They appear to be basing the claim that the increase isn’t coming from the protests on the fact that there is a lag time in tests. I don’t think the increase is protest related either just from the data I’ve seen over the last few days. I’m pretty sure that we are seeing what happens with increased re-openings of public places with a holiday thrown in for good measure. Who knows.

 

 

[washparkhorn 9973]

36 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

On another note, I was all set to send our son back to day care Monday after next for a much needed return to normal working hours and sanity. Now we've got this upward movement in numbers, and a good friend of mine just forwarded a message from his kid's day care (who has stayed open the whole time) that a teacher there tested positive. Not helpful.

Child care and elevators remain chokepoints for many returning to white collar offices. 

[Armybrat 41412]

As someone mentioned, if the protests are going to increase the numbers, the next two weeks should reflect it.

[Captainant 28546]

18 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Especially when people at home have seen several days of gatherings on Tv that were widely encouraged. Political impetus of the protests put aside, the message of the necessity of the restrictions is now tainted, perhaps irreparably. 

Yeah, it would be terrible if someone with the national stage were to publicly act in defiance of social distancing, really wouldn't be helpful to convincing people it would be the best thing to do

[gmr548 16702]

On the Wilco website, there's also a chart that tracks infection rates per 100K residents for Williamson, Travis, and Bell counties.  The Travis County numbers are significantly higher than Williamson county numbers, but I take all statistics associated with testing, with a grain of salt. 

Nursing homes probably explains that. Nursing homes in Austin have had big problems.

[Hate 20249]

As someone mentioned, if the protests are going to increase the numbers, the next two weeks should reflect it.

Didn’t the protests start 2 weeks ago? This should be exactly when we would begin to see increases due to protests. If they are doing a good job of contact tracing, and it sounds like they are, the information to figure out if it was the protest, re-opening, or a combo of both that has lead to the increase of positives should be available.

I don’t think it really makes a difference what lead to the increases but it will be interesting to see.

[Armybrat 41412]

Most of the protesters I saw were wearing masks anyway. So maybe those events won’t cause any increase.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

Texas with 25 deaths today.  67 deaths per million.  New York with 63 deaths.  1,580 deaths per million.  

[DDD Dad 14653]

As someone mentioned, if the protests are going to increase the numbers, the next two weeks should reflect it.

I fully expect it to do so but hope I’m wrong.

However I’m equally concerned that numbers will continue to increase due to the relaxation of distancing measures and general stupidity of the populace.

[DDD Dad 14653]

If they are doing a good job of contact tracing, and it sounds like they are....

What are you hearing that leads you to this conclusion?

I don’t think it really makes a difference what led to the increases but it will be interesting to see.

Agreed.

[Hate 20249]

Didn’t someone here mention they had it and and knew where they had caught it based on contact tracing? I might have read it in the “I think I have Coronas thread”.

[BradInATX 9208]

 

35 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I’m not in Austin. They’re not enforcing the orders?

They're sort of neutered by the state EO that overrides them, I believe. But there are definitely some places, especially on the outskirts of town, that are just fully back to normal.

20 minutes ago, justhookit said:

They appear to be basing the claim that the increase isn’t coming from the protests on the fact that there is a lag time in tests. I don’t think the increase is protest related either just from the data I’ve seen over the last few days. I’m pretty sure that we are seeing what happens with increased re-openings of public places with a holiday thrown in for good measure. Who knows.

Sort of. The article is nebulous. I would hope that they're basing it also off of contact tracing data, but it's COA, so I wouldn't be totally floored that they're making those assumptions off of speculation no different than we're doing on this thread. It's frustrating how often various people in leadership are making definitive statements without giving the "and here's why we believe that" that goes with it. 

[BradInATX 9208]

double

Edited June 12, 2020 by BradInATX

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13435]

47 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Early returns show that this spike in cases is heavy in the Hispanic community. 

Fucking Cinco de Mayo.

[Brisketexan 106906]

Most of the protesters I saw were wearing masks anyway. So maybe those events won’t cause any increase.

On Sunday, masks were close to universal. And folks did leave a decent bit of space as they marched.

I’m sure there will be some protest-related cases. But as the current increase is highest among working class Hispanics, who haven’t been the most heavily represented at the protests, it seems that the current spike is mostly due to other factors. One could be that as we open up and our more workers out there close together, that’s a spreading opportunity. We shall see.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

I doubt many working class Hispanics ever stopped working.  Those people work really hard.  And many industries they work in weren’t shut down. Also, some significant portion of them are illegal.  So they aren’t getting unemployment or stimulus checks.  They work or they don’t eat.  

[Armybrat 41412]

Went to the Round Rock library today for the first time in 4 months.

No seating available anywhere if the building and only a handful of patrons. Everyone was masked except some goober and his equally goobered wife. Gave them a wide berth.

[Newdoc 3511]

We live in a state of almost 30 million people. The protests are not going to move the case number needle much. 

People acting as if the virus disappeared will. It’s been pretty cavalier in my observation.

[Neonmoon 38130]

1 hour ago, Casual Encounter said:

Fucking Cinco de Mayo.

Mexican don’t celebrate Cinco De Mayo 

[Trey3216 15452]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

As someone mentioned, if the protests are going to increase the numbers, the next two weeks should reflect it.

Floyd’s death was on May 25 (Memorial Day).  Protests started getting heavy that Wednesday.   That’s over 2 weeks ago.  Protest reflection most certainly is already starting to show up in the numbers, but not many want to admit it at this time.  

[Armybrat 41412]

6 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Mexican don’t celebrate Cinco De Mayo 

They never mentioned it when I lived down there.

[Trey3216 15452]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

On Sunday, masks were close to universal. And folks did leave a decent bit of space as they marched.

I’m sure there will be some protest-related cases. But as the current increase is highest among working class Hispanics, who haven’t been the most heavily represented at the protests, it seems that the current spike is mostly due to other factors. One could be that as we open up and our more workers out there close together, that’s a spreading opportunity. We shall see.

A doctor friend of mine in Dallas had 7 cases yesterday.  All of whom were Hispanic.  5 of them had been to Mexico to see family in the last 10 days.  

[GRHorn 105]

1 hour ago, Captainant said:

Yeah, it would be terrible if someone with the national stage were to publicly act in defiance of social distancing, really wouldn't be helpful to convincing people it would be the best thing to do

You’re being obtuse. We had several weeks of round the clock emphasis in media and from leaders that the greatest priority, in the greatest fight in recent times was to willfully isolate ourselves to the financial (and public health) detriment of millions. Then we have many days of massive public gatherings, with public encouragement from the same people.

 

At least have the honesty to admit that the “optics” of that are terrible, even if you make a value judgment that the protests were more important than addressing Covid. 

[Anastasis 23721]

1 hour ago, Johnny Sack said:

I doubt many working class Hispanics ever stopped working.  Those people work really hard.  And many industries they work in weren’t shut down. Also, some significant portion of them are illegal.  So they aren’t getting unemployment or stimulus checks.  They work or they don’t eat.  

Do you even restaurant industry bro?

[Anastasis 23721]

33 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Floyd’s death was on May 25 (Memorial Day).  Protests started getting heavy that Wednesday.   That’s over 2 weeks ago.  Protest reflection most certainly is already starting to show up in the numbers, but not many want to admit it at this time.  

It's kind of amazing actually. If the spike that we are seeing currently had played out at any time after re-opening but prior to the mass protests with 10s of thousands of people marching together, the people minimizing the potential impact of the mass gatherings would have been losing their minds.

APH is going to play defense on this, because they failed out community by not effecting clear and consistent public health warnings. 

Let's see the data shake out, but I think most of us know where this is headed.  

[utee94 16089]

2 hours ago, BradInATX said:

Maybe @utee94 can add some insight to that question in terms of how long it took them to contact him after he was exposed. You'd figure they'd make those calls almost right away once they trace the individual who exposed people, right?

Lots of discussion in this thread since this question, but in my case there was a pretty long lag.  About ten days beyond my exposure.  And this is maybe the biggest problem for contact tracing that we're going to face.

For those that didn't follow, in my case it was my haircutter. She'd been closed since mid-March since this all happened, she owns the salon and has several colleagues that work chairs with her.  From the timeline they and she reconstructed, she had exposure to a colleague that felt symptoms shortly after they went back to work, but that was only a couple of days before I saw her so her colleague hadn't felt symptoms yet, when my haircutter met with me.  Our interaction was one-on-one in her completely empty salon, just the two of us, both wearing masks.  But she found out a couple of days later that her colleague had tested positive, so she got tested.  It took a couple days beyond that to get the results, and it turns out she was positive.  Then there was a little lag in the process, so it took another couple of days before they had my info, had her positive test result, and contacted me.

My haircutter was completely asymptomatic the entire time, but has shut down to quarantine everyone until they're all in the clear.

This timing lag is going to continue to be one of our biggest challenges in successfully contact tracing and isolating.

[GRHorn 105]

22 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

You’re being obtuse. We had several weeks of round the clock emphasis in media and from leaders that the greatest priority, in the greatest fight in recent times was to willfully isolate ourselves to the financial (and public health) detriment of millions. Then we have many days of massive public gatherings, with public encouragement from the same people.

 

At least have the honesty to admit that the “optics” of that are terrible, even if you make a value judgment that the protests were more important than addressing Covid. 

This is all not even mentioning the mass public gatherings that were widely encouraged were often quite destructive all over the country.

Again, encouraged. 

But I wanna go have a mouth watering steak dinner with my wife and I was really rolling the dice, playing with fire. Smdh.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

14 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

This is all not even mentioning the mass public gatherings that were widely encouraged were often quite destructive all over the country.

Again, encouraged. 

But I wanna go have a mouth watering steak dinner with my wife and I was really rolling the dice, playing with fire. Smdh.

You need to check your privilege.  
 

Four legs are good.  Two legs bad.  

[Anastasis 23721]

16 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

This is all not even mentioning the mass public gatherings that were widely encouraged were often quite destructive all over the country.

Again, encouraged. 

But I wanna go have a mouth watering steak dinner with my wife and I was really rolling the dice, playing with fire. Smdh.

But seriously.  Fuck that carrot. 

[3adays 454]

I read an article this morning in the New York Times advising people to set up glory holes during COVID-19. Reminded me of when my Great Grandmother use to say “she’d lived too long and seen too much” 

[Hate 20249]

5 minutes ago, 3adays said:

I read an article this morning in the New York Times advising people to set up glory holes during COVID-19.

Edited June 12, 2020 by Hate

[elfenix 34752]

3 hours ago, Hate said:

Didn’t the protests start 2 weeks ago? This should be exactly when we would begin to see increases due to protests. If they are doing a good job of contact tracing, and it sounds like they are, the information to figure out if it was the protest, re-opening, or a combo of both that has lead to the increase of positives should be available.

I don’t think it really makes a difference what lead to the increases but it will be interesting to see.

first houston protest i saw was 2 weeks ago tomorrow.  protest related corona should start appearing in the data right around now.  maybe a rise in hospitalizations in the middle of next week?