Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[InkaUtexas 25907]

3 hours ago, dcar00 said:

would it not be important to know if the positive person attended a protest?  we are talking all of 5 seconds to ask and answer.

Contact tracing requires moving down the line and finding and identifying the next person. With NYC's rates the way they are it is fair to say anyone who went may have been exposed. 

The only situation I can think of during COVID that is close is what Iceland did. They identified people who traveled to England for soccer matches. Then they focused on potential transmission from point of entry. They did not worry about who was at Old Trafford. 

It would be nice to know, but at no time in history have we attempted to contact trace a respiratory virus like this. 

[Armybrat 40832]

10 hours ago, BradInATX said:

I think you've mistaken this thread for the Cloak Room.

He’s pre-journalism.

[Armybrat 40832]

10 hours ago, Bevo said:

 

Edited June 16, 2020 by Armybrat
Too late

[Armybrat 40832]

9 hours ago, Texas Jeff said:

If you've updated your phone since around mid-May, you already have the technology in your pocket to do mostly automatic contact tracing.

If we all turned it on and we had the correct app for the health authorities to use, contract tracing would be as simple as pushing a button on a phone of someone who tests positive and everyone who was near that person for too long would get a message saying that they might have been exposed.

I am amazed that we are not pushing ahead with this as fast as possible.  States are refusing to use this technology and instead going with manual contact tracing.  Do you remember the names and phone numbers of everyone you stood near for too long at HEB a week ago?  No?  Maybe because you never met them?  Your phone met their phone, or at least it could have.

I understand there are privacy concerns (or maybe, Apple and Google's system provides too much privacy) but the numbers are rising and we have the technology on hand to make a dent, we just are choosing not to use it.  We can't even opt in to voluntarily joining a national system, because the system today requires a public health authority to release an app to cover an area, and most states have decided not to do that.

What if I haven’t updated my phone in a while and where can I find the USB port for that?

 

 

[Iceman 2699]

10 hours ago, Chooky said:

Apparently Phase III of the reopening still prohibits jerking off in Olive Garden.

all the salet you can handle...

[Iceman 2699]

7 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Contact tracing requires moving down the line and finding and identifying the next person. With NYC's rates the way they are it is fair to say anyone who went may have been exposed. 

The only situation I can think of during COVID that is close is what Iceland did. They identified people who traveled to England for soccer matches. Then they focused on potential transmission from point of entry. They did not worry about who was at Old Trafford. 

It would be nice to know, but at no time in history have we attempted to contact trace a respiratory virus like this. 

am i sinning for not updating the IOS on my iphone for the sole factor of contact tracing being on the update?

Yeah, I know there are likely 50 other metrics by which they are tracking me, but this makes me feel powerful and rebelious.

[Armybrat 40832]

What’s IOS.... ignorant old shit?

[Captainant 27653]

1 minute ago, Armybrat said:

What’s IOS.... ignorant old shit?

Ignorant ol' slorch. He's really doing everything he can to be individually irresponsible and pass covid to as many people as possible in the event he becomes contagious because it makes him feel like big man

[Iceman 2699]

19 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Ignorant ol' slorch. He's really doing everything he can to be individually irresponsible and pass covid to as many people as possible in the event he becomes contagious because it makes him feel like big man

Ole captainant...the compliant anarchist.

 

Thinks pissing in the wind prevents forest fires.

Edited June 16, 2020 by Iceman

[Captainant 27653]

Just now, Iceman said:

Ole captainant...the compliant anarchist.

Don't let me interrupt you refusing to take the most basic, cheap, and simple step to prevent the spread of COVID. Wear a mask, asshat.

[Hate 20108]

What’s IOS.... ignorant old shit?

It’s Apple’s Operating System. It’s like Windows 10 for PC’s or Linux or any other operating system for a computer or smart device.

[Zonahorn 8079]

Trying to find a decent article to post in here about the surge of COVID cases here in Arizona, and I just can't. Current per capita infection rate is over 60.

[Js1 85310]

Just now, Calihorn said:

Trying to find a decent article to post in here about the surge of COVID cases here in Arizona, and I just can't. Current per capita infection rate is over 60.

Arizona

texas

florida

#winning 

[Guadaloopy 10960]

11 hours ago, Chooky said:

Apparently Phase III of the reopening still prohibits jerking off in Olive Garden.

 

[Enchubben 5510]

12 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

No it does not, but would you remember who the hell you stood next to? 

I thought the whole point was that the carriers/tech companies who do the contact tracing know who was next to each other?  Or is it just not that specific?

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

11 hours ago, Chooky said:

Apparently Phase III of the reopening still prohibits jerking off in Olive Garden.

I don't want to live in this America.

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

14 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Trying to find a decent article to post in here about the surge of COVID cases here in Arizona, and I just can't. Current per capita infection rate is over 60.

There are many different per capitas. Find one you like, and then share it.

[Zonahorn 8079]

1 minute ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

There are many different per capitas. Find one you like, and then share it.

*Per 100,000

[bschoolprof 6252]

This seems like good news. This evidence is from a randomized trial in the UK.  

 

Quote

A cheap and widely available drug can help save the lives of patients seriously ill with coronavirus.

The low-dose steroid treatment dexamethasone is a major breakthrough in the fight against the deadly virus, UK experts say.

The drug is part of the world's biggest trial testing existing treatments to see if they also work for coronavirus.

It cut the risk of death by a third for patients on ventilators. For those on oxygen, it cut deaths by a fifth.

Had the drug had been used to treat patients in the UK from the start of the pandemic, up to 5,000 lives could have been saved, researchers say.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53061281

Edited June 16, 2020 by bschoolprof

[GRHorn 105]

I haven’t tracked this specifically. How far do deaths typically lag confirmed cases and then hospitalizations?

[Captainant 27653]

1 minute ago, GRHorn said:

I haven’t tracked this specifically. How far do deaths typically lag confirmed cases and then hospitalizations?

It seems like the best ballpark number is about 2 weeks to see a reaction from a change in policy/behaviors, per previous interviews with Dr. Fauci. So this week we'll likely start seeing the impact from the loss of social distancing during the protests

[Pato del Muerto 52489]

1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

What’s IOS.... ignorant old shit?

Image orientation sensor.  It makes sure your pictures post right side up. 

Edited June 16, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[Johnny Sack 8397]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Arizona

texas

florida

#winning 

So far they are.  Also:

 

Houston and Dallas confirmed COVID hospitalizations make up around 60% of the hospitalizations in the state. In each of those metros, fewer than 10% of their total beds are used by COVID patients. Statewide, COVID patients occupy less than 5% of total beds.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Arizona

texas

florida

#winning 

So far they are.  Also:

 

Houston and Dallas confirmed COVID hospitalizations make up around 60% of the hospitalizations in the state. In each of those metros, fewer than 10% of their total beds are used by COVID patients. Statewide, COVID patients occupy less than 5% of total beds.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Arizona

texas

florida

#winning 

So far they are.  Also:

 

Houston and Dallas confirmed COVID hospitalizations make up around 60% of the hospitalizations in the state. In each of those metros, fewer than 10% of their total beds are used by COVID patients. Statewide, COVID patients occupy less than 5% of total beds.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

You've made your point. Thrice. 

[TwiceHorn 31450]

14 hours ago, Bevo said:

I figured I would post this article here about one of our closest family friends who died from COVID-19. It was in the WSJ on June 12 by Jason Gay.

Arnold the Grammarian

A tribute to a Journal reader who loved the way words can sing - but not always in my case

 

 

The best part of this job? That’s easy: readers. Some days, readers like me; other days, they can’t stand me; sometimes, they want me to quit the business and get a job knitting hand puppets.It’s all fair. I’ve been doing this for a long while, at a lot of different publications, and I know what it’s like to have nobody read what I’m doing. That anyone would take a moment to read my column feels like a blessing, for which I’m grateful.

For instance: Arnold Tenenbaum. A kindhearted gentleman from Savannah, Ga., who liked brightly patterned shirts and funky sunglasses, Arnold was the patriarch of an eccentric Southern family I’d known since I’d met Arnold and his wife Lorlee’s youngest daughter, Ali, while in college.

To know the Tenenbaums was to want to be one; it’s why a pair of family friends, Wes Anderson and Owen Wilson, borrowed the name when they wrote the screenplay for “The Royal Tenenbaums.”

Arnold seemed to catch everything. He had an appreciation for the way words were supposed to be.

The film was only very loosely based on the real Tenenbaums. But Arnold loved every second of the fuss.

Arnold was also a huge Journal reader, and when I got a job working here, he cheered me like I’d landed on the surface of the moon. With great regularity, he’d check in on me—always with a thoughtful comment about something I’d just written, and almost always with, well…a grammatical correction.

Here’s something you may already know about newspapers: We don’t always get the grammar so good. This especially applies to yours truly. My command of English is fungible at best; I have a copy of Strunk & White sitting somewhere in my house, uncracked since high school. I like to think that I’m being heretically modern and playful, but the truth is, I have zero idea what I am doing. My Journal editors are brilliant at saving me from my butchery, but they can’t catch everything, especially on deadline.

Arnold seemed to catch everything. He belonged to a certain type of old-school newspaper crowd. He didn’t mind technology, but he preferred to read print, a pen or a pencil nearby, just in case some egregious blunder had to be noted. Arnold wasn’t an English professor or writer—he’d gone to Dartmouth and taken over his family’s steel business not long after graduation—but he had an appreciation for the way words were supposed to be.

 

Arnold and Lorlee Tenenbaum

Photo: Courtesy Alison Tenenbaum

“I don’t know where it came from,” Ali told me the other day. “It was natural to him.”

Arnold would write to me, his gentle fixes humanely wrapped in compliments:

Fun column but next to last paragraph: ‘None of them have’ should be ‘none of them has.’ None is short for no one (singular.) X Arnold

Excellent article, wonderful paragraphs…dare I point out…page 74, second column, second paragraph, second sentence: ‘Keep’ not ‘keeps.’ X Arnold

Good article on the Oscars but one grammatical correction: Next to last paragraph should begin with ‘Among,’ not ‘Between.’ Between is between two alternates. Among is more than two. I hope all is good. X Arnold

You might think that this sort of hen-pecking would get on my nerves after a while—who enjoys having their grammar corrected?—but I appreciated it so much. Readers who do this do it because they love words, but also the rules of words. They believe that structure is important and spelling counts.

Besides, Arnold was always sweet, fatherly. He was the opposite of a scold. He was a grammarian of style, but also grace.

 

A couple of months ago, the emails stopped. Arnold Tenenbaum died on March 24. Five days later, his beloved Lorlee passed away. Both of them died of complications from Covid-19. They are survived by four children and eight grandchildren. After a lengthy delay because of the pandemic, they will be buried in Savannah on Sunday—June 14, the day they would have celebrated their 61st wedding anniversary.

Ali told me the Tenenbaum children are still gently nudging the grandkids when they bungle a sentence. It’s what her father would have wanted, she said.

It sure is.

I miss hearing from Arnold, a reader who loved words as much as anyone ever has.

Or is it “anyone ever had’? Or should it be ‘did’?

Forgive me, Arnold. I miss you. X Jason.

OT, but what's the connection between the Tenenbaums of Savannah and UT?  It appears that there is one?

[Guest Lobo]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

You've made your point. Thrice. 

Unce.  Tice.  Thrice.  Fo' times a johnny sack shitshow.  /buckwheat

[Johnny Sack 8397]

New hospitalizations don’t seem to lag new case counts all that much, if at all. The lag in reporting test results is often greater than in reporting new hospitalizations. They're another one where, while the numbers are increasing, they don't seem to be in trouble at this time. For all the posturing in the media, there doesn't seem to be much danger of healthcare systems being unable to handle the spread. I think it was a mistake for the CDC recommendations to have assumed such homogeneity in the US. They should have timed shutdowns with how pervasive the virus actually was in any given area. Because that's a gun that can only be fired once.

[Scary Stranger 1714]

4 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Unce.  Tice.  Thrice.  Fo' times a johnny sack shitshow.  /buckwheat

[youdunnf'dup 2147]

Living in Phoenix, I can tell you nobody out here gives a shit about covid, even with the most recent news. Everyone is just doing whatever they want. The bars are open again. The gyms are open. No establishment is enforcing wearing masks. Nothing. 
 

I’m afraid it’s going to take someone young, healthy, and famous dying before anyone takes this thing seriously again. Seems like people have just accepted it for what it is now, and they just hope the old people around them don’t die.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

 

 

[Guest Lobo]

Bullshit, I was told in no uncertain terms that I have nothing to lose.  

[Johnny Sack 8397]

 

 

 

 

[Johnny Sack 8397]

COVID per capita deaths per state (deaths per million):

New York - 1,591

New Jersey - 1,439

Connecticut - 1,179

Massachusetts - 1,109

Rhode Island - 803

D.C. - 737

Louisiana - 650

Michigan - 602

Illinois - 499

Penn - 494

Maryland - 493

Delaware - 434

Indiana - 361

USA Avg - 358

Miss - 301

Colorado - 279

Minn - 237

Georgia - 235

NH - 235

Ohio - 221

Iowa - 210

New Mexico - 210

VA - 184

AZ - 164

Wash - 161

AL - 158

Nevada - 151

MO - 146

FL - 137

CA - 130

WI - 119

SC - 117

NE - 114

KY - 113

NC - 109

ND - 97

OK - 91

VT - 88

KS - 85

SD - 85

Maine - 75

Tenn - 71

Texas - 70

Arkansas - 60

Idaho - 49

WV - 49

UT - 45

OR - 43

WY - 31

MT - 18

Alaska - 16

HI - 12

I am sure this will be drastically different in two weeks.  But Texas is doing fantastic.

[dcar00 14181]

is there a site or article that shows the "normal" hospital bed percent usage by state?

[Bevo 13576]

59 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

OT, but what's the connection between the Tenenbaums of Savannah and UT?  It appears that there is one?

I don't think there is one other than me talking to them at dinner and them visiting my parents in Houston. Their daughter married an older, politically-active billionaire who lives between Boston, NYC and the Hamptons. And my connection to them is that they were our favorite friends of my parents, attended our wedding, etc... He went to Dartmouth if memory serves.

Edited June 16, 2020 by Bevo

[drt 638]

I think one of the surly docs said the aim is 90-95% for most hospitals

[Armybrat 40832]

Are these hospital bed % numbers for total beds or ICU beds? And are those patients all Covids or do they include the usual heart attacks, critical accident & shooting victims.

[Cheeseweasel 26438]

1 hour ago, Johnny Sack said:

They should have timed shutdowns with how pervasive the virus actually was in any given area. Because that's a gun that can only be fired once.

This. And (NO CR) but the protests were the "icing on the cake". Everyone has gone into "fuck it" mode.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

1 minute ago, Cheeseweasel said:

This. And (NO CR) but the protests were the "icing on the cake". Everyone has gone into "fuck it" mode.

Yep.  The governors who were banning people from last moments with dying family members, attending worship while sitting in their cars at their church parking lot, or not allowing people to have funerals for loved ones, but supporting and attending political protests with hundreds of thousands of people has angered a whole lot of people.

[C-Man 27214]

Quote

 

A Dallas woman is detailing her battle with not one but two rounds of coronavirus.

Over the weekend, Meredith McKee posted a tearful photo -- that's now been seen by more than 100,000 people -- from her hospital bed at Texas Health Presbyterian in Dallas.

McKee is sick with the coronavirus again, and she told NBC 5 she wouldn't wish it on her worst enemy.

Local

The latest news from around North Texas.

CORONAVIRUS18 HOURS AGO

COVID-19 Case Tracker: What We Know About Cases in DFW, Around Texas

ARLINGTON20 MINS AGO

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"To be alone in the hospital and not have anyone, you know," McKee said tearfully.

McKee tested positive for COVID-19 in February. She was diagnosed after feeling "clear and obvious" symptoms.

"I had a dry cough like you would not believe. It would not stop,” McKee said.

She fought the virus from home and beat it. She even donated plasma twice after testing positive for antibodies, thinking she was in the clear.

"I felt great doing finally something good coming out of the hell that I’ve been through because I'm going to help up to eight people with this plasma,” McKee said.

But this past Friday, McKee went to the hospital with high blood pressure and a headache.

She never imagined -- four months later -- she'd test positive for COVID-19 again.

"I was floored when it was positive," McKee said of her diagnosis.

An epidemiologist at UT Southwestern -- not connected to McKee's case -- said catching the coronavirus twice is possible, but it appears to be uncommon.

"We don't really know how serious the illness is the second time compared to the first time," said Dr. Robert Haley with UT Southwestern.

A second positive test after a negative result may mean the virus is simply taking its time leaving the body, doctors said, and is no longer able to infect others.

"It's possible that people could shed remnants of the virus for some period of time. That doesn't mean anything is wrong with them or that they are contagious," said Dr. William Schaffner, an infectious disease expert at Vanderbilt University Medical Center in Nashville.

McKee said her doctors believe the virus went dormant after her first round of coronavirus, then reemerged.

While scientists still do not know the long-term effects of the virus, some experts have cast doubt that re-testing positive after having tested negative means that the person is still contagious, NBC News reported.

A study of 285 COVID-19 patients in South Korea who tested positive after having appeared to recover could not find evidence that the patients were still contagious, with viral samples unable to thrive in a lab.

"What we're finding more and more is that the fragments of virus that are being picked up on these swabs weeks later are not able to replicate," Dr. Ania Wajnberg, associate director of medicine at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City, told NBC News. "They're not live virus."

Still, McKee said the worst part for her is realizing she may have unknowingly exposed family, friends and countless strangers.

"I'm mortified and I'm seriously devastated," McKee said.

McKee said she wants her case to serve as a reminder for everyone to wear a mask, something she now wishes she'd done.

 

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/dallas-woman-battling-coronavirus-again/2389265/?fbclid=IwAR1HKZHeBGRYWMor4wvyP4p7MASOy5kGt_YITtVSayRo8421BpB5GznDHVk

[GRHorn 105]

2 hours ago, Captainant said:

It seems like the best ballpark number is about 2 weeks to see a reaction from a change in policy/behaviors, per previous interviews with Dr. Fauci. So this week we'll likely start seeing the impact from the loss of social distancing during the protests

Sorry I wasn’t clear. 
 

I meant that the timeline appears to be case numbers up, small lag then hospitalization numbers up then...

 We are seeing spikes in various states, but the daily deaths number nationwide is well off the peak. I’ll be curious to see if/when it starts creeping back up based off these new states. Are we getting better at treating these patients?

[dcar00 14181]

is there data that shows the age of positive cases and age of hospitalization since memorial day?

[GRHorn 105]

I will say I texted my friend that’s an ER doc in Austin and he said his last shift about half the patients were Covid. Not all admitted, but that’s what he’s seeing 

[UT_OB1 2218]

31 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Sorry I wasn’t clear. 
 

I meant that the timeline appears to be case numbers up, small lag then hospitalization numbers up then...

 We are seeing spikes in various states, but the daily deaths number nationwide is well off the peak. I’ll be curious to see if/when it starts creeping back up based off these new states. Are we getting better at treating these patients?

50% of the deaths have been in assisted living facilities.  If we do nothing else but limit the spread in those facilities, we'll keep the death rate cut way down.

[Hpara759 1778]

2 hours ago, Cheeseweasel said:

You've made your point. Thrice. 

there will be some here that will still miss his point....conveniently

 

 

[Skipper 6133]

2 hours ago, Johnny Sack said:

 I think it was a mistake for the CDC recommendations to have assumed such homogeneity in the US. They should have timed shutdowns with how pervasive the virus actually was in any given area. Because that's a gun that can only be fired once.

I don't disagree in theory but you have to remember in March when shutdowns started we literally didn't know definitively where hot spots would be and that cases in Texas, for example, weren't about to skyrocket.  I'm actually pretty convinced that if Dallas would have remained unchecked for 2-3 more weeks with folks carrying on as usual it would have been pretty bad here as well.

[Johnny Sack 8397]

It's a lot harder to make the argument that it is a good faith calculation of public health necessity to shut down 30 person church gatherings when you've been allowing and encouraging (hell, even participating in) gatherings of tens- and hundreds of thousands of people crammed together yelling.

[Skipper 6133]

29 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

I will say I texted my friend that’s an ER doc in Austin and he said his last shift about half the patients were Covid. Not all admitted, but that’s what he’s seeing 

Anecdotal as well but one of my wife's best friends has a good friend that is an ER Doctor in Dallas and a text was shared with her yesterday that cases have really started to jump over the past week (and currently more than they had at the prior peak back in April at her hospital).    Dallas had been trending well but clearly that's starting to change. Will be interesting to see what the more detailed data shows when released later today.  Particularly with respect to the 'presumed' cases since as i've posted before reliable confirmed' hospitalized data still tends to lag 10-14 days locally.