Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[GreenspointTexas 9662]

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[bschoolprof 6271]

1 hour ago, El Diablo said:

Is there any "Field of Dreams" effect going on here? I mean the "if you build it they will come" aspect. Hospitals have sent a lot of staff home and need patients of some variety so why not hospitalize cases that they would have considered marginal 2 months ago? A shit ton of symptomatic folks were sent home to ride it out when this all started.

Hate to be cynical but I do wonder about these things.

This is a good point, but ICU numbers are going up as well, although not at the rate total hospitalizations are.  So what you bring could contribute some, but there has been an increase in really sick people testing positive for covid.   

[Captainant 27690]

53 minutes ago, El Diablo said:

The less cynical side of me tends to think that it's possible that at the beginning we were only admitting the worst of cases. Probably a lot of folks early on were sent home who should have had a hospital stay. Not so much abuse as a shift in standards for admission. 

We definitely were only admitting the severe cases early on. Back in late Feb/early March my MIL had all of the hallmark symptoms of COVID, including loss of taste/smell, and she couldn't get tested because she wasn't gravely ill. Just got written up as another flu patient. Our numbers and data aggregation in general are realllllllyyyyy furked up around COVID. Something about if we don't test there won't be new cases....

[atomheartbevo 89758]

1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Heat will slow it.  Problem is all us Texans will be inside the A/C hurtling droplets at each other because masks don't kill the Covid, they do kill muh freedoms!  

I keep hearing that heat's going to slow it.    But, as you pointed out, this ain't the time of army brat's grandkids before they had A/C.

[Wally Pryor 5261]

Where can I see (Travis County), on a daily basis, how many new COVID patients have been hospitalized,  how many have been released and how many open beds remain? 

I'm sure there's a site out there somewhere. 

Thanks in advance. 

[Guest Lobo]

Yeah, if I have to hear from one more dipshit that promises me, like he has since fucking February, that the heat will slow the virus down...I'm gonna lose my shit.  

Everybody on one side of this issue is starting to remind me of the guy from "Hands on a Hardbody."  

"Yeah, I don't go getting under the air until it's time to go to sleep.  I stay outside in the heat, heat's good for you.  Only when it's bedtime, I go get under the air."  

Apparently most Texans don't use A/C.  Eye roll  

[atomheartbevo 89758]

18 minutes ago, rpspeed said:

You saw a pickup basketball game? Here they have started the youth baseball season. 6 diamonds completely full of kids and their relatives, also schools have started summer strength and conditioning sessions for 7-12.

Kids are going to do whatever they are told to do and generally don't understand how viruses spread, and generally don't go down to covid.

What I saw was a group of 30- and 40-something mostly college-educated guys trying to relieve their high school days, or imagining they were the 1992 Dream Team or whatever, banging into each other like they were Charles Barkley.  Guys whose parents' generation fall firmly in the 65 and over category.

[bullzak 422]

1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Another data point that I am curious about is the average length of stay. I don’t default to abuse of the system, but interested in the trends. As we have effective therapeutics coming on line might expect to see longer lengths of stay among some individuals which would increase the daily census but not daily new admits. 

There are people saying that's exactly what is happening. You have to see daily admits to really know. Not sure how many states are keeping accurate data on that. 

[Newdoc 3448]

We will get hospitals in trouble if we admit too much Covid. Admission criteria is set. There isn’t some “Hey, let’s fill some beds up cuz they’re empty” strategy. Procedures and elective surgeries pay the bills. Covid patients with Medicare are a net drain on revenue. Nobody is making up deficits by admitting Covid patients just for kicks.

If you displace surgical beds with Covid patients, you are in trouble financially. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Newdoc

[heso 2813]

12 hours ago, Anastasis said:

The problem with the NYT charts is that they don't use the same y axis.  All they are are exaggerated representations of the shape of the curve, which yields totally erroneous conclusions when you make these kind of comparisons.  I mean it is impossible to argue that NY, NJ, PA, etc. look better than Texas, CA, AZ, or FL. Although I would agree that in the grand scheme of things they resemble Italy and Spain moreso than TX. 

 

Completely agree. My good/bad determination was a poor choice of words. More just pointing out that those early northeast outbreak states had an initial explosion and then are now continuing a downward trajectory, while the current outbreak states had an initial bump and then fade and are now back into an upward trajectory. 

im still not sure what to make of the death rates in the current outbreak states other than to guess that those states are catching the outbreak in real time while the northeast outbreak testing was probably a month behind the initial surge of the outbreak and thus only caught a small percentage of actual infections. 

[atomheartbevo 89758]

12 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Where can I see (Travis County), on a daily basis, how many new COVID patients have been hospitalized,  how many have been released and how many open beds remain? 

I'm sure there's a site out there somewhere. 

Thanks in advance. 

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

 

[Js1 85449]

1 hour ago, LebongJames said:

Abbott doesn’t need to give power to the mayor’s. What he needs to do is just make masks mandatory at stores and places of worship.

Bars are definitely an issue. Went down to get Garaj Mahal the Sunday of Memorial Day weekend and the bars just operating pretty close to normal. Main measures I saw were to protect staff. The bars have patios so no capacity limits. Most restaurants are doing everything very responsible. 

But then how will some poor business owner rack up a gofundme for not requiring masks bc MUH FREEDOMZ and get cool tweets from Ted and Dan? 

[Steamboat1874 4075]

Abbott's logic is idiotic.

"Oh the reason we have had an increase is either because we tested more prisoners, we tested more assisted living centers, some county turned in a bunch of tests all at once......etc"

WTF ??? They are all CASES dumbass.

They count no matter who or where or when you test.

Fucking aggy logic.

Edited June 17, 2020 by Steamboat1874

[Incredulity 11680]

24 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Yeah, if I have to hear from one more dipshit that promises me, like he has since fucking February, that the heat will slow the virus down...I'm gonna lose my shit.  

Everybody on one side of this issue is starting to remind me of the guy from "Hands on a Hardbody."  

"Yeah, I don't go getting under the air until it's time to go to sleep.  I stay outside in the heat, heat's good for you.  Only when it's bedtime, I go get under the air."  

Apparently most Texans don't use A/C.  Eye roll  

The heat is definitely going to slow this thing WAY down.

[Wally Pryor 5261]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/39e4f8d4acb0433baae6d15a931fa984

 

Is there a place to see open hospital beds earmarked for COVID?

[Guest Lobo]

2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

The heat is definitely going to slow this thing WAY down.

I'm completely aware at all the other contributing factors (Memorial Day gatherings, protests, more robust testing, re-openings, etc.)...but we've been about 10 degrees above normal for almost a month now and we've also seen a 60% increase in hospitalizations.  So yeah, not quite convinced the heat is what we've been waiting for.  But yeah, more serious heat is on the way, maybe that'll do something.  Last I checked though, Texans typically head indoors in the summer, not outside.  

[Zonahorn 8079]

16 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

The heat is definitely going to slow this thing WAY down.

Not sure if serious

[South Austin 52523]

5 minutes ago, Steamboat1874 said:

Abbott's logic is idiotic.

"Oh the reason we have had an increase is either because we tested more prisoners, we tested more assisted living centers, some county turned in a bunch of tests all at once......etc"

WTF ??? They are all CASES dumbass.

They count no matter who or where or when you test.

Fucking aggy logic.

I'm the last one to ever defend Greg Abbott, especially for his shitty opinions on BBQ.  But I do think the context behind the numbers matters because they inform reactive behavior. 

If it's possible to accurately answer these questions with reliable data, I do think it's important to ask in response to the increased numbers of cases:  How many of these are requiring hospitalizations, and how long are those hospital stays?  How many of these cases are the olds, in assisted living centers, or in prisons?  How many were among the masses who gathered in large numbers on Memorial Day not giving two fucks about possible transmission?  How many of those were among the thousands in continuous protests to support the BLM movement?  How many of those are among the "muh rights" folks who refuse to wear masks when they go to HEB, Lowes, etc., or routinely gather with folks out of the household for indoor graduation parties or other social gatherings?  I understand it may be difficult to get reliable data in response to the latter questions.   

I ask those questions because an overreaction to the numbers without context might cause otherwise responsible people to go back to living like hermits, reverting to curbside-only grocery shopping, and abandoning even responsible socially-distanced gatherings with family and friends or supervised outdoor playdates for their kids.  Or, it might fuel the folks who feel like it's their mission to shame such behavior.  And it may lead to a call to return to more restrictive measures for restaurants, retail, and other businesses, though I think that regardless of the numbers it's too hard to put that genie back in the bottle at this point.   

Just my humble two cents, and I post this as someone who is on the more cautious side of the spectrum, continuing to wear my mask while in public and limiting my social gatherings to a few friends in outdoor, distanced and BYOB settings.     

[Incredulity 11680]

20 minutes ago, Calihorn said:

Not sure if serious

[Skipper 6162]

1 hour ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Welcome to 3 months ago on the masks

 

why this country hasnt enacted a mandatory mask law is fucking hilariously idiotic

Yep, Ballgame.

[Horns99 155]

But then how will some poor business owner rack up a gofundme for not requiring masks bc MUH FREEDOMZ and get cool tweets from Ted and Dan? 

How would you ever function in life without the government telling you what you can & cant do ??

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Yep, Ballgame.

Lol. Greenspoint has more posts in this thread the last day than all of June only because Texas is seeing an uptick in cases. Inevitable cases. Nothing,including masks, is going to stop a prison, nursing home or meat plant outbreak.

 

 

What’s the active cases in Texas look like, also the positive testing rate? I look at those more than just daily cases to get a clear picture of what’s going on. If those things are declining or staying put in Texas, then you’re still looking good.

[Zonahorn 8079]

34 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Reading Surly before having caffeine and hungover was a bad decision

[Sbbruin 21865]

13 hours ago, StruggleBus said:

I’d like to take this opportunity to say fuck China 

[El Diablo 4232]

3 hours ago, Newdoc said:

We will get hospitals in trouble if we admit too much Covid. Admission criteria is set. There isn’t some “Hey, let’s fill some beds up cuz they’re empty” strategy. Procedures and elective surgeries pay the bills. Covid patients with Medicare are a net drain on revenue. Nobody is making up deficits by admitting Covid patients just for kicks.

If you displace surgical beds with Covid patients, you are in trouble financially. 

Which is worse for a hospital financially, having beds set aside for covid and filling them or having those beds remain empty? Honest question as I have no idea what policies hospitals need to enact in a pandemic to both stay ready for the worst and to also behave with some financial responsibility. Seems like it could be a tough balance to strike.

[Skipper 6162]

2 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

What’s the active cases in Texas look like, also the positive testing rate? I look at those more than just daily cases to get a clear picture of what’s going on. If those things are declining or staying put in Texas, then you’re still looking good.

I only focus on hospitalizations locally in Dallas area since I'm not traveling anytime soon.  Yesterday's data was first time we've really seen an uptick and nothing major yet.  It falls in line with timing an increase would be expected though.   I actually agree local officials should be able to require masks in retail stores and  enact other reasonable restrictions they see fit IN ORDER to keep the economy open. But yes, it's clearly not a coincidence that Greenspoint decided to show back up in this thread once news started reporting increased cases.  

[Newdoc 3448]

1 minute ago, El Diablo said:

Which is worse for a hospital financially, having beds set aside for covid and filling them or having those beds remain empty?

Full beds require staff. The cost of the physical room is largely fixed. Ideally, each bed is filled with a patient that needs a high paying procedure, has good insurance and is in and out quickly because hospitals are usually paid in lump sums per diagnosis and procedures pay on top of that.

Older Covid patients with crappy medicare don’t meet any of that criteria. It is the ass backwards way we get reimbursed in healthcare.

[Pato del Muerto 52535]

1 hour ago, Horns99 said:

 

How would you ever function in life without the government telling you what you can & cant do ??

 

I can. Apparently millions of others cannot, and they are fucking it up for the rest of us. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by Pato del Muerto

[gmr548 16590]

I hope the heat slows the virus.  

Heat will slow it.  Problem is all us Texans will be inside the A/C hurtling droplets at each other because masks don't kill the Covid, they do kill muh freedoms!  
 

The heat is definitely going to slow this thing WAY down.

Y'all on vacation or something? It's already hot. It's been hot. At no point in the year will we get as much sunlight than we do this week and next week.

It's certainly reasonable to think there's a seasonal factor to it, but relize we're already benefiting from it as these numbers are going up.

[bolverk 29695]

52 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

What’s the active cases in Texas look like, also the positive testing rate? I look at those more than just daily cases to get a clear picture of what’s going on. If those things are declining or staying put in Texas, then you’re still looking good.

Unfortunately, Texas isn't doing too well. Active cases have increased from roughly 21,000 on June 1 to about 33,000 right now. Positive testing rate as been stuck within a range of around 8.5% since the middle of May, but it appears as if it's been slightly trending upward (almost imperceptibly) but consistently in the last week though by no means skyrocketing so better on that side of the equation.

The big increase in hospitalizations from about 1,500 to 2,500 over the last couple weeks, and the NYTimes "hot spot" map shows that it has been rebounding back to the metros (especially suburban counties) over the last week or so with a couple of rural prison counties thrown into the mix (some of those seem to be cooling).

Overall, I'd say it's not out of control in Texas but is concerning that our effort at "flattening the curve" stalled out, and things are back on the rise. My hope is that we at least plateau and it doesn't continue to go up. We shall see.

[atomheartbevo 89758]

3 hours ago, rpspeed said:

You saw a pickup basketball game? Here they have started the youth baseball season. 6 diamonds completely full of kids and their relatives, also schools have started summer strength and conditioning sessions for 7-12.

Okay, jogging a little later this morning than normal, and yeah, lots and lots of moms and kids at the playground, with the kids on all of the equipment and the moms shoulder-to-shoulder practically.

Going to be a long summer.  Would be great if the kids could pass this around now without it affecting older relatives, and not later in the fall.

[kevwun 15811]

Here's the thing, if we do nothing to mitigate the spread, it's not going to slow down.  The hopes on summer doing that have been proven false.  Make people wear masks for a month to see if it slows back down.  If people can't be bothered to do that, write them a ticket just like what would happen if they got caught not wearing a seat belt.

Edited June 17, 2020 by kevwun

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4976]

3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Okay, jogging a little later this morning than normal, and yeah, lots and lots of moms and kids at the playground, with the kids on all of the equipment and the moms shoulder-to-shoulder practically.

Going to be a long summer.  Would be great if the kids could pass this around now without it affecting older relatives, and not later in the fall.

Pics aren't showing up. 

[NorthLoop 14218]

3 hours ago, Telegraph_it said:

A mandatory mask law would probably result in less people wearing one. 

The amount of truth in this statement is scary. And the culprits are the same mouth-breathers who say "why don't you just do whatever the cops say?" 

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 13119]

2 hours ago, Horns99 said:

 

How would you ever function in life without the government telling you what you can & cant do ??

 

He won’t respond, rarely ever does. It takes too much thought and he’d rather lob grenades from a distance while laughing  at the irritation he causes. 

[ZB'Tejas 593]

6 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

The amount of truth in this statement is scary. And the culprits are the same mouth-breathers who say "why don't you just do whatever the cops say?" 

I tend to listen to the individual with a gun prior to the recommendations of city council members who really know nothing and are no where to be found. 

Do restaurants and business not already have the ability to require masks? Why would mandating it at the state level make it more effective? I actually think Austin overall is doing a great job of wearing masks than areas farther out (Hays county for example). Most places I go I see the majority of people wearing them.

[kevwun 15811]

No one is enforcing the mask rules.  A business could throw the person out, but then they run the risk of having a boycott or protest because people can't be inconvenienced.

Edited June 17, 2020 by kevwun

[NeverMarryAStripper 21912]

At Walmart who would you designate to throw them out, the minimum wage checker or the 85 year old greeter?

[bullzak 422]

2 hours ago, Steamboat1874 said:

"Oh the reason we have had an increase is either because we tested more prisoners, we tested more assisted living centers, some county turned in a bunch of tests all at once......etc"

WTF ??? They are all CASES dumbass.

Well, for deciding how we stand currently all cases aren't alike. 

There is all kinds of (hopefully unintentional) BS going on with the case numbers. Some states are counting old cases as current, some are mixing AB with Covid, etc. 

Admissions, ICU, death. Those are the only semi-reliable numbers IMO. 

If you test 100 and get 10 positives that's one thing. You test a 1000 and get 20 you certainly have more cases. MSM is running with the case number with no ability or willingness to add some context. 

The problem is even three months ago there was almost no testing baseline at all so comparisons that far back dont mean a lot. 

[South Austin 52523]

9 minutes ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I actually think Austin overall is doing a great job of wearing masks than areas farther out (Hays county for example).

From what I see, I'd say "good" but not "great" over the past several weeks.  It's all anecdotal.  Take my neighborhood HEB off Burnet for example.  One day I'll see maybe one or two people without a mask.  And then a couple days later it's like the "no fucks given" crowd decided to do their shopping at the same time.  There's definitely been a decrease in overall mask wearing among Austin residents since Memorial Day. 

[NorthLoop 14218]

edit

Edited June 17, 2020 by NorthLoop
double post

[Incredulity 11680]

1 hour ago, gmr548 said:

Y'all on vacation or something? It's already hot. It's been hot. At no point in the year will we get as much sunlight than we do this week and next week.

It's certainly reasonable to think there's a seasonal factor to it, but relize we're already benefiting from it as these numbers are going up.

[Dbeasy 15075]

Just want to repost what I posted two months ago before the stock market shot up to its current level. This looks to be what’s ahead of us in my opinion. That second wave could do some serious serious damage.

[gmr548 16590]

From what I see, I'd say "good" but not "great" over the past several weeks.  It's all anecdotal.  Take my neighborhood HEB off Burnet for example.  One day I'll see maybe one or two people without a mask.  And then a couple days later it's like the "no fucks given" crowd decided to do their shopping at the same time.  There's definitely been a decrease in overall mask wearing among Austin residents since Memorial Day. 

Austin was doing really, really well for a while. Like everywhere else, it's seen a slide. Its baseline is higher than other places because of its demographics - this has unfortunately become a partisan political issue - but it feels like it's sliding. These observations are anecdotal but appear to be backed up by the case data. I think it's pretty clear that opening bars, restaurants, and gyms with restrictions that won't be enforced, which basically means unrestricted, is/was a mistake. Too many people cannot handle themselves appropriately or get complacent. This was always going to be a marathon, not a sprint.

[heso 2813]

I saw a new one this weekend at Home Depot. I’ve been to HD a half a dozen times since early April. First time was before the statewide mask mandate (PA), and I saw two people in the store with a mask. After that it was 100% since you needed to be wearing one to get into the store. This past weekend, despite still needing to wear one to get in the store, I saw 5 people either holding their mask in their hand or taking it off and putting it in their cart. 

[gmr548 16590]

Just want to repost what I posted two months ago before the stock market shot up to its current level. This looks to be what’s ahead of us in my opinion. That second wave could do some serious serious damage.

I certainly think it's been made clear that regardless what happens over the next couple of weeks, Texas is probably getting fucking wrecked at some point in the fall/winter. It doesn't have to be that way but it probably will.

[bolverk 29695]

12 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Just want to repost what I posted two months ago before the stock market shot up to its current level. This looks to be what’s ahead of us in my opinion. That second wave could do some serious serious damage.

The problem, at least in Texas, is that the first wave never really subsided. We climbed up the slope, held steady, and now we're going up the next one, so I don't even know if this could be technically called a second wave but rather a rising tide. It should go without saying levels off soon and we can keep it manageable because there's no way we're going to be shutting down again. We're just going to have to modify our behaviors and learn to live with it (unless it reaches ITALY!!! levels) until there's a vaccine.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Unfortunately, Texas isn't doing too well. Active cases have increased from roughly 21,000 on June 1 to about 33,000 right now. Positive testing rate as been stuck within a range of around 8.5% since the middle of May, but it appears as if it's been slightly trending upward (almost imperceptibly) but consistently in the last week though by no means skyrocketing so better on that side of the equation.
The big increase in hospitalizations from about 1,500 to 2,500 over the last couple weeks, and the NYTimes "hot spot" map shows that it has been rebounding back to the metros (especially suburban counties) over the last week or so with a couple of rural prison counties thrown into the mix (some of those seem to be cooling).
Overall, I'd say it's not out of control in Texas but is concerning that our effort at "flattening the curve" stalled out, and things are back on the rise. My hope is that we at least plateau and it doesn't continue to go up. We shall see.

Thanks.. I meant if active as in yesterday if there was 100 new cases and 50 recoveries, it’d add just 50 to the active real time total, not the span of the last 3.5 months

[Armybrat 40857]

50 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

At Walmart who would you designate to throw them out, the minimum wage checker or the 85 year old greeter?

Me, totin’ this...?

 

[atomheartbevo 89758]

26 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

32 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Just want to repost what I posted two months ago before the stock market shot up to its current level. This looks to be what’s ahead of us in my opinion. That second wave could do some serious serious damage.

I certainly think it's been made clear that regardless what happens over the next couple of weeks, Texas is probably getting fucking wrecked at some point in the fall/winter. It doesn't have to be that way but it probably will.

Maybe we can keep the nursing homes from getting hit hard.   Like a home in Lulling gets a couple of cases - keep that from becoming a dozen or more. .

https://www.kxan.com/investigations/luling-nursing-home-confirms-coronavirus-cases/