Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Fozzz 152]

2 hours ago, GRHorn said:

It’s almost like we Americans are an unruly population that is not easily controlled relative to other countries. We DGAF and are willing to take on higher levels of risk than others. It’s served us well over time.  Sometimes it doesn’t. 

lol no we’re just dumb as dirt. We will lie down and take anything from our betters. South Koreans have the gumption to throw their corrupt politicians in prison but they are smart enough to wear masks and practice social distancing. 

[staboner 4969]

1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

 

if that data had the chance it would harm you and eat everyone in your family

 

[InkaUtexas 25918]

30 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

River is full. Bars (which are still operating) are full. Outlet is full. Meanwhile seeing more and more families needing food aid. We cannot handle this here in Hays, so watch out Austin, sending you are dumbasses. 

we did not have massive protests. I was at 2. There were maybe 500 people at the big one. 

[Incredulity 11669]

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

CDC says up to 8 weeks, and that's from when the data is posted. 

you were VERY happy to rub fresh CDC data in anyone’s face when it fit your narrative.  At least be consistent.

 

[Dahobbs 17534]

3 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

you were VERY happy to rub fresh CDC data in anyone’s face when it fit your narrative.  At least be consistent.

 

? I honestly have no idea what you're talking about. I dont have a preferred "narrative." And I'm not saying CDC data is unreliable. I'm saying I want honest analysis of that data, and in order to get there we have to understand what it is reporting and where it comes from. But, by all means, find an instance where I used "fresh" CDC in a way inconsistent with the above. 

[Bevo 13576]

7 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

1 - the coverage of the protests absolutely discussed COVID risks. And at the huge march I attended, I’d estimate that well over 95% were wearing masks. So, yeah, people actually DO yell at marched wearing masks. I saw thousands of them doing just that.

You might think that and maybe you were at a special rally, but considering that probably about 75% are wearing masks at the grocery and at Walmart, 25% at the park and outdoors and the rally and riot videos that I saw showed a healthy percentage of people without masks and plenty wearing masks around their neck, lets just agree to disagree. There are plenty of irresponsible people around the country to keep this thing spreading.

As a fun exercise, see if you can find an image with 95% of attendees wearing masks.

 

Edited June 21, 2020 by Bevo

[rpspeed 1363]

66 travel  team soccer  tournament here today, didnt see many masks.

[Dahobbs 17534]

2 hours ago, XYZ said:

So, how many months would you say you have to wait for the CDC data to be trustworthy?

I guess in light of comments above, I have to clarify my response to this. The CDC data isnt "untrustworthy." It accurately reflects the all cause mortality data submitted by state officials to the nchs. But, data collection isnt instaneous. According to the CDC website, about 60% of entities submit deaths within 10 days of identified death. Most of those (I think stats say like 85%) are processed automatically by the NCHS data systems. A smaller portion have to be manually processed before being posted. And, a large minority of jurisdictions dont report data that quickly. So, you have several lags in the system before all cause mortality for a given week can be considered "complete." (1) the delay until the death is noticed, (2) the delay until the death is processed and reported to the NCHS by the local jurisdiction, and (3) the delay until the NCHS process the data. The CDC says that delay is generally up to 8 weeks.

Basically, take the week the data was reported and go back 2 weeks. Those are the first weeks you'll have a good amount of data entered into the system. Anything after that you can basically ignore because it contains a very small fraction of the death data for those weeks. However, even going back up to 8 weeks from the report the data is still likely incomplete (i.e., not all deaths that were known to occur during that time period have been reported). 

This isnt a new effect btw. You could have created a chart from any previous posting of the all cause mortality data and you would have seen a similar large "drop" in deaths for the weeks near the posting date (including back in April where the current data shows a huge spike in total deaths). I know because I have been downloaded that data fairly regularly for a while now. Again, it wasnt a real drop. Just incomplete data. .

Edited June 21, 2020 by Dahobbs

[Serak The Preparer 3431]

14 minutes ago, Bevo said:

You might think that and maybe you were at a special rally, but considering that probably about 75% are wearing masks at the grocery and at Walmart, 25% at the park and outdoors and the rally and riot videos that I saw showed a healthy percentage of people without masks and plenty wearing masks around their neck, lets just agree to disagree. There are plenty of irresponsible people around the country to keep this thing spreading.

As a fun exercise, see if you can find an image with 95% of attendees wearing masks.

 

Umm, I'm -pretty darn sure the first image is from protests in 2015. Note the signs specific to Freddy Gray, and the sign mentioning spines that break (Freddy Gray had a spinal injury). Also there is not a single mask present, which should be the biggest clue that maybe that image is not from present day. So unless you are trying to prove that protesters were morons for not recognizing the risk of COVID-19 in 2015, not sure the relevance? What right-wing news site or twitter feed did you see that on?

For the bottom image, is that supposed to disprove Brisket's point? I haven't counted faces but I think I see two uncovered mouths? Maybe I missed one but it sure looks relatively close to 95% to me.

[Armybrat 40839]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

How is it that I still don’t know a single person who’s tested positive for COVID? Where all all these people?

You’ve been busy having sex with your lady nonstop, so how would you have time to notice anyone else?

[Dahobbs 17534]

2 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

Umm, I'm -pretty darn sure the first image is from protests in 2015. Note the signs specific to Freddy Gray, and the sign mentioning spines that break (Freddy Gray had a spinal injury). Also there is not a single mask present, which should be the biggest clue that maybe that image is not from present day. So unless you are trying to prove that protesters were morons for not recognizing the risk of COVID-19 in 2015, not sure the relevance? What right-wing news site or twitter feed did you see that on?

For the bottom image, is that supposed to disprove Brisket's point? I haven't counted faces but I think I see two uncovered mouths? Maybe I missed one but it sure looks relatively close to 95% to me.

Yup, that image was from 2015. here is a 2015 article with it:

https://m.startribune.com/black-lives-matter-group-to-rally-disrupt-operations-at-minnesota-state-fair/322479171/

[Js1 85320]

39 minutes ago, Bevo said:

You might think that and maybe you were at a special rally, but considering that probably about 75% are wearing masks at the grocery and at Walmart, 25% at the park and outdoors and the rally and riot videos that I saw showed a healthy percentage of people without masks and plenty wearing masks around their neck, lets just agree to disagree. There are plenty of irresponsible people around the country to keep this thing spreading.

As a fun exercise, see if you can find an image with 95% of attendees wearing masks.

 

Negged for posting a 2015 photo to try to disprove a point. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Lol I could tell that was old with “pray for baltimore” being the first thing I read

[gmr548 16576]

1 hour ago, Bevo said:

You might think that and maybe you were at a special rally, but considering that probably about 75% are wearing masks at the grocery and at Walmart, 25% at the park and outdoors and the rally and riot videos that I saw showed a healthy percentage of people without masks and plenty wearing masks around their neck, lets just agree to disagree. There are plenty of irresponsible people around the country to keep this thing spreading.

As a fun exercise, see if you can find an image with 95% of attendees wearing masks.

 

Self-own game strong to quite strong.  7/10.

[leaf 684]

31 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Self-own game strong to quite strong.  7/10.

He's an amateur.  It takes time to build to Pancho level.

[Trey3216 15346]

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

River is full. Bars (which are still operating) are full. Outlet is full. Meanwhile seeing more and more families needing food aid. We cannot handle this here in Hays, so watch out Austin, sending you are dumbasses. 

we did not have massive protests. I was at 2. There were maybe 500 people at the big one. 

It’s not as though San Marcos is so far from Austin and San Antonio that some people may have been there to protest, or to visit bars, or what have you.  This is a multi-layered result of a lot of different things happening at once.  3-4 weeks ago, they didn’t want people going to churches and singing hallelujah with masks off or on, but you could have 80k people outside the capital buildings screaming and yelling.   

i’m using that as an example, but it is a factor.  So is reopening, so is the fact that human beings are social creatures and we’re fucking tired of sitting cooped up in our houses and away from our friends and family.   The whole thing just sucks 

Edited June 21, 2020 by Trey3216

[DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt 12301]

2 hours ago, Bevo said:

You might think that and maybe you were at a special rally, but considering that probably about 75% are wearing masks at the grocery and at Walmart, 25% at the park and outdoors and the rally and riot videos that I saw showed a healthy percentage of people without masks and plenty wearing masks around their neck, lets just agree to disagree. There are plenty of irresponsible people around the country to keep this thing spreading.

As a fun exercise, see if you can find an image with 95% of attendees wearing masks.

 

That was a fun exercise. Thanks.

[atomheartbevo 89656]

6 hours ago, GRHorn said:

It’s almost like we Americans are an unruly population that is not easily controlled relative to other countries. We DGAF and are willing to take on higher levels of risk than others. It’s served us well over time.  Sometimes it doesn’t. 

We were willing to buckle down for a while, it's just that the preppers who have years' worth of Jim Bakker's Buckets o' Slop apparently can't go 6 weeks without a fucking haircut.

It's just that we also have places like Nebraska where the state leadership is threatening counties who require people entering government buildings to wear masks.  We have our own issues here in Texas, so they had to compromise and put the onus on businesses to enforce mask requirements.

[atomheartbevo 89656]

5 hours ago, LonghornSean said:

 

 

 

[South Austin 52485]

3 hours ago, Armybrat said:

You’ve been busy having sex with your lady nonstop, so how would you have time to notice anyone else?

I take time to check Facebook!

[VRHorn 718]

It’s weird, that idiot @dcar00 has been saying for months that there is no issue, but the cases (and hospitalizations) keep going up. What special knowledge does he have that state leaders don’t?

[justhookit 4191]

14 hours ago, justhookit said:

I know numbers are difficult but 2 weeks ago Nueces county was averaging 2.5 new cases per day. A week ago that number climbed to 3.5. https://www.kiiitv.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/nueces-countys-weekly-coronavirus-cases-still-trending-up-35-average-cases-daily/503-3dee6ebf-6fdd-4135-91ce-4fb989766b42

This week we have had new case days of 23, 34, 62, 65 and I missed one day of reporting. Nueces County had pretty much 2 small protests of a few hundred people.

Port A had 7 cases total and they were all late March to early April. nothing for two months between the first week of April and last week. Port A had no protests. We’ve reported 9 new cases THIS week. And they are setting up mobile testing again Monday because they know there are more.

Mask requirement goes into effect Wednesday. If this doesn’t slowdown in this area all the bars will close again and restaurants will go back to takeout only. I don’t think they will close the beach again, but there is talk of shutting down hotels and short term rentals again.

And right on cue Salty Dog closed tonight  at 7 pm. indefinitely. Best part is that the owner asked the employees what they wanted to do. It was unanimous to close. If the state won’t require it, and the mayor and judge won’t do it either, it’s nice to see the places here taking some responsibility.  Tonight Gaff went to x’s taped on the bar to keep people 6 feet apart. By Wednesday when the new mask “law” goes into effect not much will be open here besides convenience stores and IGA. Good job Texans.

edit- Nueces county decided they didn’t want to report new cases last weekend. They changed their mind Friday and reported 49 in Nueces county today. This is up from roughly 3 or 4 a day 2 weeks ago. Wild ass guess but when Port A reports the drive thru testing happening Monday, we will see 6 or 7 new cases Wednesday or Thursday. So we will have tripled our total numbers. In a week.

Edited June 21, 2020 by justhookit

[Bevo 13576]

5 hours ago, Serak The Preparer said:

For the bottom image, is that supposed to disprove Brisket's point? I haven't counted faces but I think I see two uncovered mouths? Maybe I missed one but it sure looks relatively close to 95% to me.

I googled something like BLM protests and just pulled up the first two that had big crowds. Kind of interesting that google would have something from 2015 pull up first. The second pic was looking for the highest mask percentage I could see from the small icons. The point is that 95% is extremely unlikely - It isn't a political point, it is a human nature point from different standpoints. It is like a young adult saying that he can hit all of his freethrows and you bet him he can't hit 95 out of 100. Some things sound easy and seem realistic but they aren't. Without even looking at pics, intuitively it is pretty easy to assume that in Texas it is fucking hot. People are going to be wearing their masks on their necks. They are going to be wiping the sweat off their faces and out of their eyes. They are going to want to yell. And that is just the people who are at least somewhat responsible going to a rally in the middle of a pandemic.

Going to places with big gatherings is dangerous. There is always going to be a decent sized number of people who don't comply, And even with good compliance, masks don't come close to eliminating the risks. Doing it puts yourself, your families, your friends, your doctors, and the community at large at risk.

[justhookit 4191]

I said it on this site that when we started re-opening that the coastal bend would be a very good test case for what we have to look forward to. We opened up bigger and sooner than anywhere else. It’s worse here because of people traveling not just from other places in Texas, but lots of other states are now visiting us too. It’s a lot of families with 20-ish  year old kids hitting the bars, but they are staying in houses with their parents.

@Brisketexan and I will probably never agree on much or really anything politically, but I like the guy, and he and I are in complete agreement on the problem. We need to mask the fuck up. We need to avoid indoor bars and restaurants or really indoor anything. It’s really that simple. It’s an easy fix. But we won’t do it.

[justhookit 4191]

6 hours ago, Js1 said:

Negged for posting a 2015 photo to try to disprove a point. 

 

edit- that was a different thread and you owned up. Mea culpa.

Edited June 21, 2020 by justhookit

[justhookit 4191]

1 hour ago, VRHorn said:

It’s weird, that idiot @dcar00 has been saying for months that there is no issue, but the cases (and hospitalizations) keep going up. What special knowledge does he have that state leaders don’t?

It’s perspective and a capacity for critical thought. I’m guessing he relies on national numbers which were powered by NYC and a few other places. We are crashing down from those numbers. Of course it looks “good”. Elsewhere, like in Texas, it’s going up. Welcome to 2020.

[Judge Roybeanbag 11819]

7 hours ago, South Austin said:

I take time to check Facebook!

[EuroHorn 3263]

12 hours ago, Js1 said:

Negged for posting a 2015 photo to try to disprove a point. 

Like rushing to judgment?

[Js1 85320]

11 minutes ago, EuroHorn said:

Like rushing to judgment?

I took my negs like a man, you don’t see my crying about them 

[bullzak 422]

Somebody wants to tell me how many people were infected as of March 15 then I will start paying attention to current cases and change rates to that. Obviously cant be done because almost no one could get a test then. 

We are finding it because we are testing at a level that never happened in any nation during the peak. Some of the testing is [gasp] focused on vulnerable populations like nursing homes, prisons, hospitals, meat packing. 

Deaths and ICU are way down. If that holds, then the virus can be said to be acting like other coronas and waning in the summer. Lets see if there is a round 2 in the fall. 

[dcar00 14181]

7 hours ago, justhookit said:

It’s perspective and a capacity for critical thought. I’m guessing he relies on national numbers which were powered by NYC and a few other places. We are crashing down from those numbers. Of course it looks “good”. Elsewhere, like in Texas, it’s going up. Welcome to 2020.

more qualifiers...

[justhookit 4191]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

more qualifiers...

I’m sorry. Do you not understand that by it’s very nature, viral outbreaks will be local/regional? I’ll hang up and listen.

[dcar00 14181]

8 minutes ago, justhookit said:

I’m sorry. Do you not understand that by it’s very nature, viral outbreaks will be local/regional? I’ll hang up and listen.

no shit.  lets see where we are in 2 weeks...Italy!  people are going to die and I was already on record saying 80-120K would die so I never said it was no issue.  It will be more than 120K.  multiple people up thread said it would be fantastic to keep it under 200K.  I grant that I didn't expect NY/NJ/Mass to be such a complete shitshow for so long. what a disaster those guys were.

oh and the 90's called and want their sick burn back. 

[justhookit 4191]

So you don’t understand. Got it.

[dcar00 14181]

4 minutes ago, justhookit said:

So you don’t understand. Got it.

no I do understand but someone made a decision to ramp the localized outbreak by shoving covid positive patients into nursing homes.  therefore turning a localized outbreak into a 2 month shitshow but you keep doing you.

[Neonmoon 38129]

The best part about this thread is the pandemic data is so complex, inaccurate in spots,  very accurate in spots, unreported in spots, over reported, under reported, and every other thing imaginable under the sun. And every Internet jockey with a junior data scientist badge argues to the death about what the data actually means. 

[justhookit 4191]

2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

no I do understand but someone made a decision to ramp the localized outbreak by shoving covid positive patients into nursing homes.  therefore turning a localized outbreak into a 2 month shitshow but you keep doing you.

Explain the spike in Texas. I’ll hang up and listen again.

[justhookit 4191]

Ever the optimist that I am, the benefit to this covid shit is that I’ve learned we have a bunch of smart people from this University on all sides of the political spectrum. And then we have a bunch of idiots that I hope/pray have no affiliation with this University.

[VRHorn 718]

3 minutes ago, justhookit said:

Explain the spike in Texas. I’ll hang up and listen again.

Duh doy, it’s increased testing.

You will never get @dcar00 to acknowledge reality. For reasons that can’t be discussed here, he is all in on “it’s no big deal”. He just said it would be over 120k (no shit, Sherlock) and that’s as far as he’ll go. He has a vested interest in underplaying the pandemic.

[justhookit 4191]

1 hour ago, bullzak said:

Somebody wants to tell me how many people were infected as of March 15 then I will start paying attention to current cases and change rates to that. Obviously cant be done because almost no one could get a test then. 

We are finding it because we are testing at a level that never happened in any nation during the peak. Some of the testing is [gasp] focused on vulnerable populations like nursing homes, prisons, hospitals, meat packing. 

Deaths and ICU are way down. If that holds, then the virus can be said to be acting like other coronas and waning in the summer. Lets see if there is a round 2 in the fall. 

How’s going from 2.5 average new cases per day, to 40? In ten days. Percent positive from 2.5% to around 10. Hospitalizations up 130%. NONE of that is related to a prison, nursing home, whatever. This is Nueces County. 

More locally, in Port A we have 9 new cases in a week. We had 7 cases for all of March, April, May, and first 2 weeks of June. We have no nursing homes, or hospitals, or meat packing, or prisons so it’s not the perfect country/western song, but yeah you are right there is nothing going on here. Jesus.

[justhookit 4191]

11 minutes ago, VRHorn said:

Duh doy, it’s increased testing.

You will never get @dcar00 to acknowledge reality. For reasons that can’t be discussed here, he is all in on “it’s no big deal”. He just said it would be over 120k (no shit, Sherlock) and that’s as far as he’ll go. He has a vested interest in underplaying the pandemic.

Yeah I keep forgetting where I am. I’ve bounced into the CR some for the re-opening thread because it’s got some good info.

[Zonahorn 8079]

It amazes me the ability people have to deny reality

[B00M 6415]

1 hour ago, justhookit said:

Hospitalizations up 130%.

You should probably just say they've more than doubled because anyone denying we have a problem at the moment, in Texas, doesn't do math good.

[Guest Lobo]

Nah man, we get.  There were 100 people in the hospital and now there's 130.  Easy.  I get that more testing reveals more cases, but wouldn't the people who hadn't been tested who were feeling/demonstrating serious symptoms have gone to hospital anyway?  I dunno.  

Apparently "slow down testing" now passes as high-brow comedy, so I'm gonna throw out a zinger and say, "Let's slow down hospitalizations...amirite?"  

I mean what's the deal with hospitals anyway?  You're eating that awful food, I mean what's even in that Jell-O?  You're walking around with that open back gown, that's not a good look for you fellas in the crowd.  They give you that remote that's attached to the bed like you're gonna try to steal a remote control when you you get discharged.  And what's the deal with all that paperwork?  I had an easier time closing on my house.  

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8817]

Is there a certain time in the day that the Texas dept of health releases daily numbers for the previous day? Or do they just do it on a county by county basis?


Worldometer has Texas updated but just certain counties have reported so far.

[South Austin 52485]

36 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Nah man, we get.  There were 100 people in the hospital and now there's 130.  Easy.  I get that more testing reveals more cases, but wouldn't the people who hadn't been tested who were feeling/demonstrating serious symptoms have gone to hospital anyway?  I dunno.  

Apparently "slow down testing" now passes as high-brow comedy, so I'm gonna throw out a zinger and say, "Let's slow down hospitalizations...amirite?"  

I mean what's the deal with hospitals anyway?  You're eating that awful food, I mean what's even in that Jell-O?  You're walking around with that open back gown, that's not a good look for you fellas in the crowd.  They give you that remote that's attached to the bed like you're gonna try to steal a remote control when you you get discharged.  And what's the deal with all that paperwork?  I had an easier time closing on my house.  

 

I read your post with Jerry Seinfeld’s voice.

[kevwun 15777]

If the additional cases were only because of more testing, the positivity rate would decrease.  It is increasing.  Anyone who doesn't acknowledge is being an obtuse jackass.

[Parliament 14257]

Offered without comment.

https://www.cyclenews.com/2020/06/article/2020-sturgis-motorcycle-rally-confirmed/

[Reynolds Woodcock 4739]

6 hours ago, bullzak said:

Somebody wants to tell me how many people were infected as of March 15 then I will start paying attention to current cases and change rates to that. Obviously cant be done because almost no one could get a test then. 

We are finding it because we are testing at a level that never happened in any nation during the peak. Some of the testing is [gasp] focused on vulnerable populations like nursing homes, prisons, hospitals, meat packing. 

Deaths and ICU are way down. If that holds, then the virus can be said to be acting like other coronas and waning in the summer. Lets see if there is a round 2 in the fall. 

I really hope you just stumbled your way to this message board because you saw a Thujone dick painting on reddit that caught your attention. Surely someone with a degree from the University of Texas can’t be this blindingly stupid. 

[Pato del Muerto 52491]

2 hours ago, Lobo said:

Nah man, we get.  There were 100 people in the hospital and now there's 130.  Easy.  I get that more testing reveals more cases, but wouldn't the people who hadn't been tested who were feeling/demonstrating serious symptoms have gone to hospital anyway?  I dunno.  

Apparently "slow down testing" now passes as high-brow comedy, so I'm gonna throw out a zinger and say, "Let's slow down hospitalizations...amirite?"  

I mean what's the deal with hospitals anyway?  You're eating that awful food, I mean what's even in that Jell-O?  You're walking around with that open back gown, that's not a good look for you fellas in the crowd.  They give you that remote that's attached to the bed like you're gonna try to steal a remote control when you you get discharged.  And what's the deal with all that paperwork?  I had an easier time closing on my house.  

 

Um that’s not what a 130% increase means. You just described a 30% increase.